Sanatanan wrote:wrote...
Sanatanan ji,
Thank you for your detailed post. I'm not quoting it in full so as to not make this post unnecessarily long. You made six points, I'll try to give my responses in point form also with each point addressing the ones you made.
1)I respect your opinion on this even though it would seem I hold a different set of views. I fully understand the importance of indigenous development. While I’d prefer not to comment on the point that the projected power deficit or shortage of uranium are exaggerated as I don’t have sufficient information on this, I would like to say that I don’t think that it’s a given that foreign technology/designs would automatically kill local innovation or designs. In fact, I think a peek at how countries like France, Russia and who knows maybe even the US tackles and solves the considerable technological issues that are involved in both building a NPP and scaling it up to 1,500 MW would provide invaluable to our local scientists. IMHO isolationism was never a good breeding ground for innovation.
Of course your point about the feeling that imported maal is better than local ones gaining currency, among at least a section of Indians, is valid. And one could also conceivably think up scenarios whereby a pro-import lobby is created in the nuclear space, which tries to stifle local innovation. It is for this reason one needs to keep a close watch on what is happening in local research and design efforts. Any adverse effect on local efforts would be a telltale sign that things are getting out of control.
Bottomline, I personally don’t think that imported LWRs are a silver bullet that would solve all our energy and uranium needs. However, I also think there’s no need to have an irrational fear about such imports. Finally, even though I know it’s an imperfect analogy, I’d like to point out what a transformational change took place in our auto industry once foreign products (Maruti) was allowed. If that had not taken place, we conceivably still have been traveling around in Ambassador cars. While local is always preferred and should be the long term goal, in the short to medium term taking help/technology from others may not, IMO, be that harmful, provided adequate safeguards are provided to indigenous efforts.
2)I have to say, that my views on this differ considerably from yours. One of the reasons for this is because I think two different issues are wrongly combined here. One of them is the
rate/speed of industrialization of the country. The other is the
rate of absorption/development of nuclear technology in India.
As far as the rate of industrialization is concerned I don’t think the LP rotor of a steam turbine is the right analogy. Every single economic indicator would show you that the rate of industrialization or industrial output if you will is abysmally low in India considering her GDP level and state of the economy. It’s really criminal that in a country at the development level at which India is that the contribution of industry is so low. There are several factors responsible for that which are OT here. However, I would point out the one that is not OT and that is the massive power deficit that we have. That again brings us back to the why I personally think imported NPPs are required to provide – however small it may be – boost to power generation.
Regarding your point about the construction speed of imported NPPs vs indigenous ones, I certainly agree. However, the point is our local PHWRs are not yet scalable to 1000 MW and above which these NPPs are. And while your point about grid problems is valid I would point out that it should be more easier to funnel or control power to the grid from one 1000 MW plant than two 750MW plants. And if I’m not mistaken, it cost lesser to set up one 1000 MW plant than two 750MW plants.
I would also like to point out that your comparison with Canada – and in this context also to countries like Germany – is not really a valid apples to apples comparison. The reason I say this is two-fold. The first is because these nations are mature economies with steady state growth rates and are
already power surplus nations. The second is that they have adequate supply of other sources of power, like hydel, coal and solar. In India’s case one needs to note – and unfortunately very little discussion on that point has occurred so far on BRF – that pithead prices of coal has made all the mega coal fired power projects planned by the likes of Reliance, the Adnani and Tatas virtually unviable.
That leaves us with the same problem – massive power deficit. IMO, a better apples to apples comparison for India would be China, another fast growing, energy deficit country. I’m sure you’re aware of just how ambitious their NPP strategy is. I’d also like to point out that they are merrily going about with the dual strategy of developing indigenous capability while importing Westinghouse reactors and copying whatever technology they can from them.
3) On this point I can understand your apprehension and I think there’s a very valid basis for it. However, I’m hopeful that our nuclear establishment, which has considerable say in this matter – according to my understanding – would, hopefully, prevent this. This also brings me back to the point I’ve made earlier: We need to remain vigilant to see how the tide flows. However, IMO our apprehensions of what may or may not happen shouldn’t be a reason for a lock down on foreign tech. Rather one should be more vigilant and take the necessary safeguards. Without evidence to the contrary I'm fully confident that our nuclear establishment can do this.
4) Regarding the eco friendliness of LWRs or not, I’ll take your word for it as I think you have a better understanding on the issue. However, my POV is that I really don’t care if more uranium is needed to be mined or not as long as it’s not mined in India. It’s my understanding that all these imported NPPs come with lifetime fuel guarantees so I’m not too concerned about whether they use more or less uranium. Your point about not following the profligate US way is very valid and I don’t see that happening unless we abandon PHWRs and go the LWR way. As long as local development of our three-stage fuel cycle goes on with the ultimate objective of having dozens of FBs, I don’t see why we should be apprehensive.
5) Again on a broader level I agree with your point about projecting our local technology. However, I do think that we may be looking at this issue from two different perspectives. Without claiming which is right or wrong, I would like to point out that I feel (please correct me if I’m wrong) you are looking at these imported NPPs as being a vital part of our strategic program, while I feel that the imported NPP strategy is not part of our strategic goals and is a medium term parallel pathway to address – at least in some measure - our power problem and uranium shortage (real or manufactured.
6) I’m not too sure how the “strategic property” tag could have given the GoI more options that what they already had for the Koodangulam plant. It should be obvious with the agitationists bringing up issues like reprocessing etc what their agenda is - it is not about the welfare of the simple folks living around the plant, they are just a diversion and canon fodder. In such a situation if a straight law and order approach was useful, I think the GoI could have moved forward faster. However, I think there’s an understanding in the GoI that there are deeper issues involved, which is why they are going slow on the issue. However, this is just my intrepration.
I do realise that many may not agree with my views expressed above. Fair enough, since in our country widely differing view points and philosophies have co-existed for centuries -- for example dvaita, advaita and visishta-advaita schools of thought. Only, my second apprehensionis that the validity of my views may get conclusively proven (if at all!) only at a much later date -- by which time it might be too late to effect the necessary midcourse corrections.
I’m very glad you’ve posted your views. IMO they constitute a very credible interpretation of how things could pan out. Ultimately we are
desh bhakts who are trying understand how things shape up for India. We can only increase our knowledge and understanding if we discuss several different possibilities and hopefully come up with the correct interpretation which is a mix of different POVs.
Please do keep sharing your views. Even though they may not be the same as mine, they are certainly thought provoking and I find them very useful.
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