CRamS wrote:Viv, I am not an expert on this, and don't mean to trivialize this agreement. Maybe there is substance in it. But let me ask how useful are all these toys when US in the same breath gifts Fsolas and such to TSP?
I can't claim to be an expert on the matter. I'll just put my own views, so TIFWIW.
To start with, most critical Indian opinions of the US-Pak relationship are based on a superpower-client view of the relationship. That is a flawed basis of analysis that ends up mixing up outcomes with intent. Fact is, the US is a superpower in decline. It could dictate terms to the world back in the 90s i.e the hyper-power days. For better or worse, it can't today.
The Iraq campaign struck a huge blow against US credibility when it comes to hard power and that effect has only been exacerbated by the quagmire in Afghanistan and the chaos in the Middle East. Its 'allies' in the Middle East know it, India, Russia & China know it and yes.. Pakistan knows it just as well.
After 15 years of blood & treasure spent; 2,400 dead, 20,000 wounded &
$1.6 trillion (2001-2015) spent, the best possible outcome the US can look forward to in Afghanistan is an perpetually unstable semi-religious state propped by foreign aid (monetary & military).
Since 2008, the US military has sustained more casualties in Afghanistan than Indian military has in J&K. They went into Afghanistan in the wake of 9/11 and ended up finding OBL in a Pakistani cantonment. M. Omar passed away in a Karachi hospital. His successor M. Mansour was killed in a drone strike near the Iran border. His successor, in turn, is a preacher from Quetta where both the Taliban & Haqqani networks were openly operating out of.
So the idea that the US can solve India's terror problems is clearly a dead end. Forget J&K, if they can stop the ANA from haemorrhaging men, it'll be a job well done.
As regards the aid to Pakistan; it was a big fat zero between 1989, when the Soviet withdrawal concluded (and the Pakistanis became useless) and 2001 when the US campaign began (and the Pakistanis became useful, or rather, we're perceived as 'useful'). As evidence of its perfidy emerged, and NATO troops withdrew, aid to Pakistan has been rapidly rolled back.
The FMF funding for the F-16s was rejected and security funding has been scaled back to $500 mil/yr (with the SecDef refusing to sanction the remainder) down from ~$3bn in 2010. That might be enough to pay the PA/PAF's counter-insurgency costs, or not. Ideally, we in India would prefer it there be no aid at all, but as long as ISAF supply lines run via Karachi and they carry out the odd cross-border op/drone strike, that's not feasible.
Bottom-line, as far as Pakistan is concerned, we're on our own. The US isn't going help us, but also isn't going to hinder us. We do have a convergence of interests on China however and that factor will continue to drive bilateral relations.