2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 24 Jun 2024 06:06

The FAKE NEWS factory of PAPPU Congress is not stopping even now. One day Atal Setu has cracks, Ayodhya railway wall collapsed ... so much fake news

They may be working with some internal handlers to sabotage NDA and force election???

Meanwhile BJP is unable to fight fake allegations day in and day out!!

BJP IT Cell is useless. They did not take action on Google/Meta/Twitter lies. Twitter also controlled reach of all BJP handles.

Not only BJP IT cell is useless, their leaders have gone mental

News Arena India @NewsArenaIndia
In Maharashtra local media is completely against BJP.

One senior journalist Bhau Torsekar was supporting BJP but now a party functionary has filed case against him.

On social media large chunk of BJP supporters are backing Bhau in this entire issue.

Devendra Phadvanis administration filed FIR against RW handles (TrueIndology) which tweeted some truth against Phule

venkat_kv · Post by **venkat_kv** » 24 Jun 2024 08:37

This has been a very strange election. i am going to pen what i have come across the past few days.

1. Just 3-4 months before elections, a lot of the congress party people were leaving the party and the morale looked down atleast quite openly for that party. Did it lead to over confidence on the BJP side? But the votes secured by the INDI Alliance even after the defections and no open anti-incumbency say other wise. So the votes have more or less stuck with the Congress party even after the defections of the leaders, this generally doesn't happen when leaders move as they take a chunk of their followers/votes with them.

a. most of the defecting people are senior guys and they should have a pulse on what their supporters were feeling if they were going to stick or leave the congress itself.

2. The other aspect seen in this election was everything that was seen as a problem for the BJP or built up a year or so in advance has yielded results for the INDI Alliance. That shows that Indi's targetted campaign has worked or BJP has lacked communication or maybe a bit of both.

a. the jaat wrestlers agitation and the subsequent khap panchayats diktats from Haryana and western UP has engineered a chunk of votes away from the BJP even after aligning with Jayant Chaudary. voting for samajwadi party which was primarily responsible for muzzafar nagar riots in 2013.

b. the agitation in ladakh asking for article 371 that has turned people against the BJP with sonam wangchuk leading the agitation. there was an interview with Suresh Kotchatill and the ladakhi council where they are happy with the modi govt sanctioning money (about 6000crores) for development of ladakh, there are fruit juice processing plants and some wool processing plants and some more. yet the ladakhi council has said that it has gone very deep into the people minds that they should have article 371 and numbers game has decimated the BJP with the shias of kargil putting in only one cadidate and the buddhists from ladakh having two candidates - one from BJP and the other from pro Art 371 group. The BJP finished 3rd.

c. BJP has lost both seats in Manipur with the church siding against the BJP and the meitei side also not voting for the BJP.

d. The farmer protests has seen BJP dented in Punjab, Haryana, loosing in the lekimpur Kheri constituency as well.

3. Rahul gandhi has barely campaigned in Raibareilly and Amethi yet congress won with really big margins. Smriti Irani who has done some work on roads, hospitals and AIIMS is accused of just abusing Rahul gandhi, but apparently the same is not applicable to rahul gandhi when he was seen participating in mocking of VP Jagdeep Dhankhad or congressi trolling or calling Smriti Irani names all throughout these 5 years.

4. the RSS did some 1 lakh sabhas big and small in 24 days in MP to get BJP that record margin of victories, was that not done in UP and Maha?

5. The major pollsters all missed the arithmetic, pulse on the ground with the likes of yogendra yadav not withstanding.

6. It seems to be slowly coming to the fore that "maybe" the uppercaste has more or less stayed with BJP (maybe except brahmins) and a lot of sc/st votes has gone to congress alliance with the campaign that BJP would remove reservations ( i didn't believe that still now, but a colleague of mine was saying that his builder in Maha has said reservations will be taken out in last year Oct-Nov as its a BJP's internal memo and both are hardcore hindutva wadis, somehow this part I have not heard untill this election cycle).

a. The same campaign style of telangana where BRS and BJP was seen as the same to vote for congress seem to have been used against Mayawati's vote bank with reservation removal fears and calling Mayawati as BJP's B team.

7. BJP probably did a little too little too late in addressing the reservation and congress has used deep fake videos saying that Amit Shah ahs said he will remove the reservations.

8. It seems like this election has played out like Bihar 2015 where it was BJP vs the rest and BJP was decimated in the caste equations. This will be further refined as we go forward as the only way to defeat BJP but that has further complications as Congress rises, how will that play out with regional parties that are now unifying the Muslim vote with a dominant caste ( yadav's in UP, Jaats in haryana or something like that).

9. The Maha elections seem to have BJP voteshare dropping by 5 % from previous election and the INC -Shiva Sena (Uddhav) -NCP (sharad pawar) gaining seats with independents gaining a chunk of votes in their victories.

aftermath of the election.

1. Now that the congress has almost doubled its seat count, its going to go on the attack with what ever news it can lay it hands on fake or real doesn't matter. They will not allow the Lok Sabha to function.

2. The people blame BJP IT cell as useless (and useless they may be), but i find that most so called right wing or govt supporting channels to be equally clueless (none raised any issue when the elections were on going or during ticket distribution), but are now busy pedalling Yogi vs Amit Shah and upper caste votes moving away from the BJP when it looks like reservations and mayawatis jatav votes (who are ambedkarites as they come) have voted for the Congress alliance.

3. We will be bombarded with news about how Modi and Shah are going to be replaced with some xyz from RSS and how Yogi will sent home (this is straight from Arvind Kejriwal and AAP's campaigning style. This was what had happened after the Bengal vidhan sabha elections and every day we were seeing news about Modi Shah being replaced, along with yogi also. It continued till 2022 UP elections untill Yogi became the CM again and all the sounds just mysteriously disappeared).

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 24 Jun 2024 08:46

^^^
The results are inexplicable and artificial. The pollsters got it wrong, senior leaders defecting from Cong. got it wrong. Zero incumbency was seen before elections against Modi. Yet the results shocked everyone ... nobody could get a whiff before elections of this ...

I am repeating (call it a conspiracy theory, or whatever ) .. if Modi is smart, he will ensure 100% counting of VVPTs of EVMs before declaring results. Make it mandatory ASAP. Even opposition parties are asking for it. Then what is the hold-up? The Whites are manipulating. Their dark labs have technologies 20 years ahead of the rest of the world (which we wont' currently think are possible).

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 24 Jun 2024 09:02

Sanjay, please go easy on conspiracy theories.

The elections were lost because of cleaver campaign from the opposition and mis steps of the BJP in Maharashtra and other states.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 24 Jun 2024 11:39

More than VVPATs which are unlikely to throw up surprises, its good old fashioned human-hacking that needs to be countered by BJP

Many reports of 1000s of Hindu names disappearing from voter rolls. Possible collusion of EC officials with the INDI alliance

BJP has had 10 years to cleanse the C-system and put their own people in positions of power from top-to-bottom in all types of Public Service departments, Govt jobs etc. Which they colossally failed to do & even went to the extent of appointing their enemies!

2024 is a good reality check. Whether they wake up or not - its upto Modi & Co

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 24 Jun 2024 12:22

venkat_kv wrote:This has been a very strange election. i am going to pen what i have come across the past few days.

Good findings. For me; the major observation for the last election is the total invisibility of an election manifesto from BJP. What do they plan to do in next few years? As the IT business jargon used - Year on Year growth. Article 370, Ram Janmabhoomi, Triple Talaq ban - all done & dusted. Now people will not vote for past acts. What is the future plan? At least I did not get any messages on what BJP plans to do for next five years. Rumours of UCC etc were just that rumours.

INC and I.N.D.I at the right moment came up with a well made election manifesto. Plan and tangible benefits. And very good usage of all channels including social media to spread the message far and wide. BJP was literally caught with their pants down. This should be a big lesson for BJP. Never let the guard down, and expect people to vote on past incidents alone.

Prem Kumar wrote:Many reports of 1000s of Hindu names disappearing from voter rolls. Possible collusion of EC officials with the INDI alliance

This is very much possible. The election roll verification is done by state government officials so they can be partisan. Thrissur was the only seat which BJP won in Kerala, this time. After polling, all were surprised to see the huge spike of around 1 lakh additional votes and no one could guess where it would go. The rumour is that, BJP's Thrissur unit over the last few years had tapped into BJP sympathisers from other districts who worked/stayed in Thrissur constituency most of the time. Not very publicised; these people were added into the electoral rolls of that ward, taluk etc. At a ward level, the numbers may be small but at a constituency level the numbers got added up. The best part was that all this was done in perfectly legal way.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 24 Jun 2024 16:24

https://x.com/alok_bhatt/status/1805089616795722108

https://x.com/Starboy2079/status/1805157354972827700

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1805 ... 27700.html

For last. 10 years, people have been warning BJP Govt. About Twitter and Instagram and now Joined by Google YouTube and Reels. The Govt. Was not understanding or did not care about this.

With all tools like Palantir, this will reach worst stage. We are willingly giving all research data to Google - everything Health data to learning abilities. US companies have more data on us than Americans.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 24 Jun 2024 16:28

https://unric.org/en/can-artificial-int ... elections/

Can artificial intelligence (AI) influence elections?

The integration of AI into the electoral process can enhance voter engagement and improve security, making elections more efficient and inclusive. However, the risks of disinformation, cybersecurity threats, and biases must be carefully managed. Through the establishment of global standards, the UN is working to ensure that AI serves to reinforce democracy rather than undermine it. Safeguarding the integrity of information is particularly crucial for the transparency of elections. The international community must join forces to ensure that AI technologies strengthen democracy and promote active citizen participation, respecting freedom of opinion and expression.

https://campaignlegal.org/update/how-ar ... o-about-it

How Artificial Intelligence Influences Elections, and What We Can Do About It

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 24 Jun 2024 19:07

venkat_kv wrote: ↑24 Jun 2024 08:37 This has been a very strange election. i am going to pen what i have come across the past few days.

The people who left the party were mostly duds who couldn’t help the BJP at the regional or national level. Ever since Himanta Biswa, the BJP seems to think that taking in all and sundry from other parties will help it consolidate votes. However, if they were smart, they would have seen what happens when you do that after the 2021 West Bengal elections. The organization in BJP Bengal was so bad that there were comical incidents where the party gave tickets to individuals who were still with the TMC, much to their surprise and with no intentions of leaving the TMC! This time, 20% or 1 in 5 tickets were given to party outsiders. Rahul Kanwal had asked Amit Shah this very question before the election, and Shah brushed it away. The majority of party jumpers, something like 80% of them—lost.

In one of my previous posts, I mentioned that there are dozens of reasons why the BJP failed to secure a majority. However, the two biggest factors remain the same: first, the elections this time went back to the way they were pre-2014, fought locally rather than nationally. Second, the INC has been trying to perfect the formula of total Muslim consolidation with SC/ST and powerful community votes in states. They were very successful in Karnataka using this formula (Muslims+SC+ST+Vokkaligas), resulting in the decimation of the BJP and JDS. They nearly succeeded in the 2022 UP assembly elections as well, where the BJP could have easily lost the majority on top of losing 55 seats. But the formula finally paid dividends in the lok sabha elections, with total Muslim+SC+Yadav consolidation leading to the BJP coming behind INC+SaPa in the state. Ofcourse, in states where M+SC+powerful community consolidation was not a factor, there were other reasons. In RJ it was terrible ticket distribution yet again and in MH, it was a combination of maratha agitation, rural distress and sympathy for Sharad Pawar and Uddhav.

The INC has every reason to be confident going into the assembly and 2029 general elections. It’s rather ironic that they are using the same strategy and talking points as Modi and the BJP did in 2013-14, where the vote was against the establishment, and outreach was to young people.

The BJP and RSS need to think about a fresh face for 2029 with an eye on 2034. Sadly, none of the existing leaders seem to have a pan-India presence except Modi, and it would be foolish for Modi to run again in 2029. Is it a cakewalk for the INC? I don’t think so. While the party is certainly on the ascendency, at some point, it will cause uneasiness among its regional allies. Indian politics follows a cyclical pattern with 15-20 year cycles, repeating the same pattern with minor differences. This is also why "Congress Mukt Bharat" is a silly, pipedream. The nature of politics is such that there will eventually be counter-consolidation. This is also why despite 27+ yrs uninterrupted BJP rule in GJ, INC continues to get around 30% vote share.

The next big challenge for BJP will be in the immediate aftermath of the 2024 and 2025 assembly elections. Looking at the upcoming states, none of them are favorable for BJP, big losses in these states (and there is a good chance BJP may lose in all of them) may well spook the coalition partners who anyways only care about their states. I wouldn't be too surprised if the parliament is dissolved and we go to polls again in 2027, anything is possible after the next UP assembly elections.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 24 Jun 2024 19:48

And in other news, as arrests continue in the NEET exam paper leak case across multiple states, the NTA today decided to postpone PG NEET exams at the 11th hour leaving thousands of students confused, angry and frustrated. With NEET scandal now moving from Bihar, Jharkhand to UP and Maharashtra, i'd be very surprised if re-examination is not conducted as multiple cases will be filed in the Supreme Court if counselling begins based on the current results.

VKumar · Post by **VKumar** » 25 Jun 2024 00:22

Let's not overlook the effect of the extreme heat wave on upper and middle voters

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 25 Jun 2024 07:16

Stung by criticism from BJP supporters the BJP IT cell initiated legal action, and withdrew it only after major outcry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5SWX01vwi8

Explore the recent controversy involving Bhau Torsekar and the BJP IT Cell. Known for his outspoken and candid remarks, Torsekar has been served a notice by the BJP IT Cell, sparking a heated debate about freedom of speech and political censorship. We analyze the statements made by Torsekar that led to this notice, dissect the BJP IT Cell's strategy, and discuss the potential repercussions for the party's digital influence. #bhautorsekar #bjpitcell #ajeetbharti

AmolJ · Post by **AmolJ** » 25 Jun 2024 14:33

A_Gupta wrote: ↑25 Jun 2024 07:16 Stung by criticism from BJP supporters the BJP IT cell initiated legal action, and withdrew it only after major outcry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5SWX01vwi8

Explore the recent controversy involving Bhau Torsekar and the BJP IT Cell. Known for his outspoken and candid remarks, Torsekar has been served a notice by the BJP IT Cell, sparking a heated debate about freedom of speech and political censorship. We analyze the statements made by Torsekar that led to this notice, dissect the BJP IT Cell's strategy, and discuss the potential repercussions for the party's digital influence. #bhautorsekar #bjpitcell #ajeetbharti

Notice was served by Social Media In charge and not by BJP IT Cell, It is revoked also.

But I must say that BJP IT Cell or Media Cell is compromised as they take too much time to bash the propaganda played by Opposition in Maha.
Also, they do not dare to file cases or serve notice to News channels/News Papers(Daily) publishing propaganda pieces.
Maha BJP needs to smell the coffee as I can see rural area in Maha dominated by these News Channels and News Papers propaganda.
It's my 2 cents but they needs pick the tricks from UBT and SP in Media management.

nits · Post by **nits** » 25 Jun 2024 15:18

VKumar wrote: ↑25 Jun 2024 00:22 Let's not overlook the effect of the extreme heat wave on upper and middle voters

Sir i think we need to stop blaming Heat. Heat was same for both parties it was just that BJP supporters were lazy and complacent - Heat or No Heat; if once in 5 years they cant venture out for few hours to vote then we deserve this

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 25 Jun 2024 17:16

Not directly related to the polls/elections as such, but this difference in the promise and delivery, especially at critical times, is remembered by voters.

A risk is also that it can be weaponised by opposition. In this case the Haryana govt is under the BJP

Karnal doctors not to treat patients under Ayushman Yojana from 1st July

All the city doctors who run private hospitals or work there won't treat any patient under the Ayushman Yojana from July 1 over pending payment from the Haryana govt. On Monday, they gave deputy commissioner Uttam Singh a memorandum to this effect.

In the last six months, the Indian Medical Association's affiliate hospitals have honoured many Ayushman cards, but now their dues have run into Rs 18 crore. One of the protesting doctors who went to the DC said: "In whatever condtion the patients came, we treated them and restored their health, but the govt didn't pay us anything for that service. We want our due, and they have promised to resolve the issue in the next meeting."

Dr Rohit Sardana said: "The state govt's TMS-2 payment portal has a snag for the last six months. We are forced to withdraw all our services provided on the Ayushman card because the limit has been crossed. As long as the payment process is not streamlined and the issues of portal, rejection, and timely payment are unresolved, we won't treat the card holders. The next meeting with the DC is on June 27 and some officials from the chief minister's office (CMO) will sit there with representatives from the IMA."

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 25 Jun 2024 17:53

Amol0922 wrote: ↑25 Jun 2024 14:33
A_Gupta wrote: ↑25 Jun 2024 07:16 Stung by criticism from BJP supporters the BJP IT cell initiated legal action, and withdrew it only after major outcry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5SWX01vwi8

Explore the recent controversy involving Bhau Torsekar and the BJP IT Cell. Known for his outspoken and candid remarks, Torsekar has been served a notice by the BJP IT Cell, sparking a heated debate about freedom of speech and political censorship. We analyze the statements made by Torsekar that led to this notice, dissect the BJP IT Cell's strategy, and discuss the potential repercussions for the party's digital influence. #bhautorsekar #bjpitcell #ajeetbharti
Notice was served by Social Media In charge and not by BJP IT Cell, It is revoked also.
But I must say that BJP IT Cell or Media Cell is compromised as they take too much time to bash the propaganda played by Opposition in Maha.
Also, they do not dare to file cases or serve notice to News channels/News Papers(Daily) publishing propaganda pieces.
Maha BJP needs to smell the coffee as I can see rural area in Maha dominated by these News Channels and News Papers propaganda.
It's my 2 cents but they needs pick the tricks from UBT and SP in Media management.

Amol0922 ji,

All dominated, controlled, and manipulated by the big onion

One would have thought that Torsekar was a staunch nationalist supporter

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 25 Jun 2024 23:19

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

TikTok users being fed misleading election news,BBC

Young voters in key election battlegrounds are being recommended fake AI-generated videos featuring party leaders, misinformation, and clips littered with abusive comments, the BBC has found.

https://theconversation.com/how-ai-coul ... acy-206051

How AI could take over elections – and undermine democracy

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 26 Jun 2024 00:32

BJP needs to setup a war room
24x7 Fake news fighting, CON scam unearthing attacking machine to focus on Pappu and his foreign ecosystems

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 26 Jun 2024 00:33

drnayar wrote: ↑25 Jun 2024 23:19 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

TikTok users being fed misleading election news,BBC

Young voters in key election battlegrounds are being recommended fake AI-generated videos featuring party leaders, misinformation, and clips littered with abusive comments, the BBC has found.

https://theconversation.com/how-ai-coul ... acy-206051

How AI could take over elections – and undermine democracy

BBC/Youtube/Meta Reels/Insta did it in India. Now they are whining

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Jun 2024 01:41

Congress now has two foreign masters:
China and
US.
Later used every trick to defeat Modi 3.0.

Now try understand the contest for Dy Speaker.
Can't give it to a foreign controlled entity.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Jun 2024 14:45

So I.N.D.I Alliance and Pakis have the same masters?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 26 Jun 2024 16:54

Aditya_V wrote: ↑26 Jun 2024 14:45 So I.N.D.I Alliance and Pakis have the same masters?

But we need to imprint the message that Pappu is America's *****, Soros ***** and Jin Ping's *****.
BJP IT cell is too weak. We need this to make it into everybody's mind. in Twitter, insta, Reels, youtube shorts ... day in and day out

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 26 Jun 2024 17:19

Does anyone have a breakdown of platform (YouTube, Twitter, Newspaper, TV etc) by age and sex so one can better understand what and how to target/invest in? Furthermore, does a similar fracture exist by political party?

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 26 Jun 2024 18:15

The hard part is getting into the WhatsApp groups and other such private circulation. I think one can join "undercover" by making up a suitable persona to see what is being pushed, but if you submit adverse content, you will be outed.

venkat_kv · Post by **venkat_kv** » 27 Jun 2024 03:05

Ambar wrote: ↑24 Jun 2024 19:07
venkat_kv wrote: ↑24 Jun 2024 08:37 This has been a very strange election. i am going to pen what i have come across the past few days.

The people who left the party were mostly duds who couldn’t help the BJP at the regional or national level. Ever since Himanta Biswa, the BJP seems to think that taking in all and sundry from other parties will help it consolidate votes. However, if they were smart, they would have seen what happens when you do that after the 2021 West Bengal elections.

In one of my previous posts, I mentioned that there are dozens of reasons why the BJP failed to secure a majority. However, the two biggest factors remain the same: first, the elections this time went back to the way they were pre-2014, fought locally rather than nationally. Second, the INC has been trying to perfect the formula of total Muslim consolidation with SC/ST and powerful community votes in states. They were very successful in Karnataka using this formula (Muslims+SC+ST+Vokkaligas), resulting in the decimation of the BJP and JDS. They nearly succeeded in the 2022 UP assembly elections as well, where the BJP could have easily lost the majority on top of losing 55 seats. But the formula finally paid dividends in the lok sabha elections, with total Muslim+SC+Yadav consolidation leading to the BJP coming behind INC+SaPa in the state. Ofcourse, in states where M+SC+powerful community consolidation was not a factor, there were other reasons. In RJ it was terrible ticket distribution yet again and in MH, it was a combination of maratha agitation, rural distress and sympathy for Sharad Pawar and Uddhav.

The INC has every reason to be confident going into the assembly and 2029 general elections. It’s rather ironic that they are using the same strategy and talking points as Modi and the BJP did in 2013-14, where the vote was against the establishment, and outreach was to young people.

............

Ambar Saar,
you seem to have hit the nail on the head with respect to the elections going local than national this time round. It looks to be a combination of factors with local insipid BJP leadership and not talking about their manifesto as Sachin Saar alluded and also seems the scare tactics of reservations being taken away has worked along with nonchalant attitude to BJP expecting to win on Modi's image and ram mandir alone. I mean the opposition was talking about making the elections local and fight on basis of caste for a while now, but the BJP haven't taken it seriously till now.
I forgot to write in the previous post but the voting pattern of KHAM (kshatriya Harijan Adviasi muslim/minority) seem to have come back partially atleast. have to see where this goes.

Coming to uddhav i don't think there was any sympathy for him unless they were hardcore followers of balasaheb. the uddhav sena faction seems to have got the votes of muslims and this is a problem for the BJP going forward as they will have to tackle whichever party is standing against them, will get votes blindly. Sharad Pawar is different with maratha strongman image, but if the marathas are going to hitch their wagon to sharad pawar all the very best to them. I still think the prakash ambedkar party which fought separately in the last 2019 elections has worked in tandem with the sharad pawar faction to cause damage to the BJP/NDA. The loss has been in 15-30k votes in 8-10 seats with some chunk taken by independents that were missing last time around.

Congress or any opposition will keep getting votes in a 2 party contest as people at the village level/ town level will be split into two groups and when one group supports one party the other automatically supports the other. It will take a while to break it down completely or the introduction of a third party will decimate one of the parties atleast that was seen during the rise of regional parties that led to decline of communists and then the congress as the BJP came along.

venkat_kv · Post by **venkat_kv** » 27 Jun 2024 03:09

vijayk wrote: ↑26 Jun 2024 16:54
Aditya_V wrote: ↑26 Jun 2024 14:45 So I.N.D.I Alliance and Pakis have the same masters?
But we need to imprint the message that Pappu is America's *****, Soros ***** and Jin Ping's *****.
BJP IT cell is too weak. We need this to make it into everybody's mind. in Twitter, insta, Reels, youtube shorts ... day in and day out

this can't come form BJP IT cell unless there are open link that are proven or in court. But it can be spread using youtube influencers or somebody else that is not directly associated with BJP. Ravish, Dhruv Rathee, ajit anjum , deshbhakth channel are for all practical purposes congress mouth pieces that don't directly associate with congress party.

that is what the BJP needs (independent influencers or nationalist leaning handles) to take on the misinformation. The BJP IT cell can just try to spread the govt achievements and missteps by the congress/opposition parties.

venkat_kv · Post by **venkat_kv** » 27 Jun 2024 03:18

the govt should also investigate the involvement of youtube or instagram in election interference. This is certain by the handles that i have seen come up. i haven't seen that many opposition leaning handles before nor am i seeing them now that elections are done. last elections it was a sponsored video of dhruv rathee on supposed alleged "rafale scam" that rahul gandhi was shouting about, this time it has been ravish, deshbhakth channel, ajit anjum, ravish kumar, some loser called paurush sharma i think (who was just insulting the BJP and their leaders with some clips thrown in as comedy), this last fellow i haven't heard or seen ever before but has viewership in millions in a day or two for his videos. there were many other no names nonsense videos.

Now elections are done and i don't see a single one of them barring an odd ravish or ajit anjum showing up, rest have all disappeared. this has to be investigated thoroughly and rule book thrown at them by the govt to make them atleast fear the govt agencies and not brushed under the carpet now that an NDA govt is in power.

The BJP needs to come out of its self induced rule that our work will speak and people will understand and vote. this will work normally but not when there is so much dis/misinformation with half truths and outright lies put in.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 27 Jun 2024 07:54

Sri Iyer of pGurus says that 92% of the Muslim voters voted.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 27 Jun 2024 17:29

A_Gupta wrote: ↑27 Jun 2024 07:54 Sri Iyer of pGurus says that 92% of the Muslim voters voted.

How would he know ?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 27 Jun 2024 19:40

Deans wrote: ↑27 Jun 2024 17:29
A_Gupta wrote: ↑27 Jun 2024 07:54 Sri Iyer of pGurus says that 92% of the Muslim voters voted.
How would he know ?

Booth by booth, they can easily figure that out. Mostly 90% of their booths are very pure

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 27 Jun 2024 21:08

and that analysis should be done!!

Let's take UP, turnout was 56.92%. X are 18% of the population. If 90% of the voters voted (I doubt the 90% number, I have not seen any rigour behind it, most likely fake, as all RW handle were shouting that vote decline during election was due to lower voting % of X, one of them is hugely incorrect).

But let's assume that it is indeed true. It changes the post election analysis drastically. If X voted Samajwadi and Con (and lets for sake of easiness, assume BSP got 0% x vote, wrong assumption, but using this write up to make a point which will not change because of this assumption.). They voted 90%* of 18% = 16.2% vote out of 57 %. That means they were 28% of the voting %. Out of 72% left BJP and allies got 43% ,i.e. they got 60% of the Hindu vote. In earlier elections, if you assume x vote% was only slightly more than average, or equal to it, assumption is that out of 100 votes 80% were x Votes, then in 2014 BJP again had 43% vote, that means 53% of Hindus voted for it. In 2019, =50% of 80% voted, i.e. 62.5% of Hindus voted. This combine with 3% vote drop in 2024 (an if X vote increased to 90%, that means Hindu vote drop was further 5.1% more, i.e. 8% less hindus voted). So if you look to draw conclusion, this election was not lost due to Hindu caste groups moving to Samajwadi party/Con or some outside interference, but because of extreme mobilization of X vote and Hindus not coming to vote because of 400 par.
I highly doubt that. But one way to know for sure is, jut see booth by booth turnout analysis. Yes X booths are mostly 100% X or over 50% X. You don't have to do even do all booths, you can do random sampling of all booths or of X booths.

Remember, the only headless chicken you see running around is a RW commentator. His caste, his sophistication, his command on any language, subject, degree is no guarantee that what is peddled is correct. Trust but verify. Just to round of this rant, LW are ma******** , there is no logic there, no point looking one. The RW is very rapidly going there.

Also does anyone know how to get booth level data?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 27 Jun 2024 21:34

vijayk wrote: ↑27 Jun 2024 19:40
Deans wrote: ↑27 Jun 2024 17:29

How would he know ?
Booth by booth, they can easily figure that out. Mostly 90% of their booths are very pure

Party workers can do that for a booth (count how many of the X names have voted, vs, all the X names in the voter list). With some effort it can be done for a seat, but I doubt PG Guru's get that info. My sense is he was just shooting off.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 27 Jun 2024 21:54

fanne wrote: ↑27 Jun 2024 21:08 and that analysis should be done!!

Let's take UP, turnout was 56.92%. X are 18% of the population. If 90% of the voters voted (I doubt the 90% number, I have not seen any rigour behind it, most likely fake, as all RW handle were shouting that vote decline during election was due to lower voting % of X, one of them is hugely incorrect).

But let's assume that it is indeed true. It changes the post election analysis drastically. If X voted Samajwadi and Con (and lets for sake of easiness, assume BSP got 0% x vote, wrong assumption, but using this write up to make a point which will not change because of this assumption.). They voted 90%* of 18% = 16.2% vote out of 57 %. That means they were 28% of the voting %. Out of 72% left BJP and allies got 43% ,i.e. they got 60% of the Hindu vote. In earlier elections, if you assume x vote% was only slightly more than average, or equal to it, assumption is that out of 100 votes 80% were x Votes, then in 2014 BJP again had 43% vote, that means 53% of Hindus voted for it. In 2019, =50% of 80% voted, i.e. 62.5% of Hindus voted. This combine with 3% vote drop in 2024 (an if X vote increased to 90%, that means Hindu vote drop was further 5.1% more, i.e. 8% less hindus voted). So if you look to draw conclusion, this election was not lost due to Hindu caste groups moving to Samajwadi party/Con or some outside interference, but because of extreme mobilization of X vote and Hindus not coming to vote because of 400 par.
I highly doubt that. But one way to know for sure is, jut see booth by booth turnout analysis. Yes X booths are mostly 100% X or over 50% X. You don't have to do even do all booths, you can do random sampling of all booths or of X booths.

Remember, the only headless chicken you see running around is a RW commentator. His caste, his sophistication, his command on any language, subject, degree is no guarantee that what is peddled is correct. Trust but verify. Just to round of this rant, LW are ma******** , there is no logic there, no point looking one. The RW is very rapidly going there.

Also does anyone know how to get booth level data?

fanne ji,

My take is that UP was a series of little fiascos that happened for various reasons and it snowballed into an unintended disaster, a concatenation of circumstances, as it where, as the holes in the swiss cheese lined up or were made to line up.

I know that this view is simplistic but it is an opinion in a nut shell, without any intention to precipitate a flame war.

I think that the situation is recoverable, if the cards that the nationalists have been dealt now are played adroitly and that will take some doing and a lot of hard sell

This comes as a big shock to the nationalists, as it is to their supporters, a freak ball that came in out of the left field when everyone was looking elsewhere and if it doesn't qualify as a fully grown black swan, it most certainly is a black cygnet

Was this situation avoidable, yes it most certainly was, if only the concerned folks were focussed on the target instead of getting sidetracked by mundane issues and banal non productive dead ends

In the meanwhile, pappu has moved from being a national joke to the position of leader of the opposition

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 28 Jun 2024 04:52

^^ Poor Pappu, now how will he go to Thailand? BYW isn’t LOO just a ceremonial post. INDi alliance is a fractious feudal as of yore

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 29 Jun 2024 16:55

chetak wrote: ↑27 Jun 2024 21:54
fanne ji,

My take is that UP was a series of little fiascos that happened for various reasons and it snowballed into an unintended disaster, a concatenation of circumstances.
I know that this view is simplistic but it is an opinion in a nut shell, without any intention to precipitate a flame war.

This comes as a big shock to the nationalists, as it is to their supporters, a freak ball that came in out of the left field when everyone was looking elsewhere and if it doesn't qualify as a fully grown black swan, it most certainly is a black cygnet

Was this situation avoidable, yes it most certainly was, if only the concerned folks were focussed on the target instead of getting sidetracked by mundane issues and banal non productive dead ends

In the meanwhile, pappu has moved from being a national joke to the position of leader of the opposition

Pretty much sums up how feel. Its unfortunate that we're still whining about conspiracy theories, or huge Muslim turnout, fake news etc.
Neither exit pollsters nor the BJP leadership has pointed to any of these. None of these happened in Himachal where BJP lost 12% vote share.

As I have posted earlier I think it was a combination of factors that gave an almost uniform 10% vote share loss across BJP strongholds
(except MP).

There was real rural distress. Rural incomes net of inflation, did not grow for 5 years. The only real positive was the free foodgrain scheme
- The mother of all freebies. My concern is that the party leadership either did not know, or did not care. Perhaps the SC vote was vote
because they were the hardest hit by rural distress.

Everything was about Modi. The manifesto was 1 line `Modi ki guarantee'. In 2029, Modiji will be 78. Most voters would be unaware
of life under Sattar saal rule. Raga will look like a youthful alternative.

The RSS and BJP ethos has always been about collective leadership and leaders keeping a low profile. I think not only with the RSS, but with
the younger voters and long time karyakartas, there was disquiet about the BJP leadership having the same High command culture that the
Cong at its peak had i.e. appointing of CMs, giving tickets to outsiders etc.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 29 Jun 2024 17:11

No pushback from BJP on lies from pappu .

Why?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 29 Jun 2024 19:06

Because, in the time truth puts on its shoes, a lie has traveled half way around the world.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 29 Jun 2024 19:55

> The only real positive was the free foodgrain scheme - The mother of all freebies.

This actually reduced government expenditure. Government has to buy and store grain it acquires in support of MSP. Govt used to have years-old grain that became unfit for human consumption. Govt changed from giving subsidized 10 kg ration to free 5 kg ration; and also cleared all the godowns and storage cost and wastage. "Master stroke" is overused but this was one such.

Based on this guy who is positive about the BJP but not a cheerleader, ready to throw doubt on them when the numbers suggest so:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvz95_uGba8

> There was real rural distress. Rural incomes net of inflation, did not grow for 5 years.

Presumably there was regional variation in rural distress, and it was not an all-India phenomenon. After all, the BJP won big in some places.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 30 Jun 2024 02:13

Pratyush wrote: ↑29 Jun 2024 19:06 Because, in the time truth puts on its shoes, a lie has traveled half way around the world.

They need to have rapid response war room
And also offensive team that spreads bad news on K'taka, WB, HP, TG, TN ... any news that is -ve add masala to it and accuse only Congress for all the sins of others

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 30 Jun 2024 14:23

A_Gupta wrote: ↑29 Jun 2024 19:55 > The only real positive was the free foodgrain scheme - The mother of all freebies.

This actually reduced government expenditure. Government has to buy and store grain it acquires in support of MSP. Govt used to have years-old grain that became unfit for human consumption. Govt changed from giving subsidized 10 kg ration to free 5 kg ration; and also cleared all the godowns and storage cost and wastage. "Master stroke" is overused but this was one such.

> There was real rural distress. Rural incomes net of inflation, did not grow for 5 years.

Presumably there was regional variation in rural distress, and it was not an all-India phenomenon. After all, the BJP won big in some places.

It is correct that the govt reduced their accumulated (and unnecessary) food stocks to support this scheme. My point is, we rant about the
freebie culture, particularly if the opposition suggests it. Also, beyond a point the scheme is not sustainable. For e.g. Wheat stocks have
reduced from 60 million to 9 million tns. This is just above our minimum holding requirements and in the absence of a good crop, will be
unable to export, or intervene in the open market to being down prices (not doing either hurts the poor more).

Yes, there is a variation in rural distress. BJP did much better in cities (e.g. swept Delhi and Bangalore, vote share in Kolkata
didn't reduce). They did better where they were not the incumbent state govt.
There is a also a variation in State per capita rural income that I have commented on in an earlier post.
For. e.g. MP did better than UP. In 10 years, MP averaged 7.8% p.a agriculture growth, while UP was 3.6% p.a
West Bengal also did better in the last 10 years than UP.

The larger point is that we celebrate India's GDP growing at 8% last financial year (beating estimates), ignoring that Agriculture grew 1%
(my stats are approximate). On a per capita basis, it is a decline in income from agriculture.
The stock market grew 29% I am a beneficiary of that, as is 2.5% of the country and naturally we will support the govt that made us 29%
richer. There is however a disconnect between that thinking and most Indians who saw their real income decline because it is dependent
on agriculture. `Ambani-Adani' is just ap proxy for inequality of income growth (not wealth).