Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Zynda
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

India Clears 2 New Vaccines And Merck's Covid Pill
Corbevax, Covovax and Molnupiravir: The centre cleared two more vaccines today and one anti-viral drug to boost the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic
Great news...but I ask who will be eligible to take Corbevax & Covovax vaccines in India? Are they cleared for pediatric use?

Center clarified that it is not allowing mixing of vaccines for adult 3rd shot (so far) and with 90% of adults vaccinated with either Covishield or Covaxin and with the same adult now limited to again one of the two vaccines, who will be recipients of the two newer vaccines? Or will exports be prioritised for those two vaccines?

I guess Pfizer didn't even bother to do any trials in India for their pill...anyways, they are the Apple of pharma world...prioritising developed world markets over emerging ones.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Bharat Biotech ‘ready’ to cater to higher demand for Covaxin
Expects to reach annualised capacity of one billion doses within few months

Bharat Biotech is ready to meet higher supply requirements of Covaxin, which has recently been approved for emergency use in children between 12 -18 years of age from the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI).

In response to a query from BusinessLine, the vaccine maker said it is “all geared up to meet higher demand for its vaccine” after the commencement of vaccination for children in the age group of 12-18 years on January 3 and booster dose for front-line warriors and senior citizens from January 10.

Since its launch, the company has been scaling its manufacturing capacity in a phased manner across its own facilities in Hyderabad, Telangana; Malur, Karnataka; Ankleshwar; Gujarat; and Pune, Maharashtra.

At present the company is producing 55-60 million doses per month and expecting to reach an annualised capacity of one billion doses over the next few months.
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Zynda wrote:India Clears 2 New Vaccines And Merck's Covid Pill
Corbevax, Covovax and Molnupiravir: The centre cleared two more vaccines today and one anti-viral drug to boost the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic
Great news...but I ask who will be eligible to take Corbevax & Covovax vaccines in India? Are they cleared for pediatric use?

Center clarified that it is not allowing mixing of vaccines for adult 3rd shot (so far) and with 90% of adults vaccinated with either Covishield or Covaxin and with the same adult now limited to again one of the two vaccines, who will be recipients of the two newer vaccines? Or will exports be prioritised for those two vaccines?
The trials of mixing vaccines are currently going on at CMC, Vellore. At the end of these trials the GoI will make a decision.

Pediatric trials for Covovax and Corbevax are also going on. When that data comes, the GoI will make a decision.

At present the first priority of the GoI is to finish the first two doses of the adult population. The booster doses and pediatric doses will start in January, and I expect decisions on expanding those will come over the next couple of months.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

How do you say FAST APPROVAL?

COVID-19: Corbevax, Covovax, Molnupiravir approved for emergency use
Expanding India's vaccine basket, the Central Drug Authority has approved the Serum Institute of India's COVID-19 vaccine Covovax, Biological E's jab Corbevax and anti-Covid pill Molnupiravir for restricted use in emergency situation.

The announcement by Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya on Tuesday came a day after the Subject Expert Committee (SEC) on COVID-19 of the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation (CDSCO) recommended granting emergency use authorisation (EUA) to the COVID-19 vaccines Covovax and Corbevax with certain conditions.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »


I am glad these are formally approved in India though there is no surprise and it was expected.

For perspective, ((see my posts from last month) Covovax (or Novovax) already had EUA in a few countries eg Indonesia, Philippians and may get approval in Canada and even USA (Trials in USA were *very* encouraging - but US at present is unlikely to approve any new vax). IIRC India has exported about 20 Million doses of Covovax to Indonesia.

Also BIG congratulations to some of the people I know friends/scientists in USA (and Texas Children's Hospital ) that Corbevax - low cost recombinant protein subunit vaccine is approved in India. Congratulations to all. (There are *many* in USA who are looking at India in admiration). (Although we all knew it will be formally approved in India).


Apart from Molnupivair, (which is also approved in USA and EU etc) another medicine of key interest is Paxlovidwhich has been approved in USA and hopefully gets approved and become available in India too.

Part about Molnupivair (and other such medicines) - though approved in US is *not* easily available at present in our area - most doctors are very upset. We all need good distribution system so that vaccines and these medicines reach when and where they are needed. India learned a lot about logistics (O2 shortage in Delta wave) so hopefully we are much better prepared and such medicines are available.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Glad to see this tweet from India's Ambassador's tweet about EUA of Covavax and Corbevax! There are many congratulations from US scientists to the India... example of excellent cooperation for global good.


Taranjit Singh Sandhu (@SandhuTaranjitS) 1hr ago:

Models of what India & United States healthcare collaboration can achieve for global good!
Indian companies working with @TexasChildrens @BCM_TropMed @PeterHotez @Novavax @Merck
and Ridgeback Bio
DD New @DDNewslive · 11h
Union Health Ministry approves two Vaccines ( #Corbevax and #COVOVAX )and anti-viral drug #Molnupiravir against #COVID19 in a single day

@MoHFW_INDIA
@tapasjournalist
@mansukhmandviya
(BTW - The current data suggests that both Covavax and Corbevax are safe for children (young adults) and are quite effective vs Omicron so many think that they will make an excellent candidate - for boosters / young adult vaccines - let us wait and see how this pans out)
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Justifiably there are many positive stories about Corbevax getting approved in India and future and possible impact of this vaccine for the world.
Here is the official announcement from Texas Children Hospital and Baylor College of Medicine about and Biological E and India's EUA.


Texas Children’s Hospital and Baylor College of Medicine COVID-19 Vaccine Technology Secures Emergency Use Authorization in India
Also here is a typical story in few of the main-stream news papers in USA:

India approves low-cost vaccine developed in Texas
India’s government has approved emergency use of a low-cost vaccine developed in Texas.

In a tweet on Tuesday, Peter Hotez — dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine — shared the news of his new vaccine being approved by the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI).

Hotez, along with Baylor professor Maria Elena Bottazzi, developed the vaccine called Corbevax at the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development (CVD), where they are co-directors.

Corbevax, dubbed as “The World’s COVID-19 Vaccine”, uses a traditional recombinant protein-based technology that enables its production at larger scales, making it widely accessible for the global population.

The new vaccine was licensed through the Baylor College of Medicine to one of the world’s largest vaccine manufacturers, Biological E.


“This announcement is an important first step in vaccinating the world and halting the pandemic. Our vaccine technology offers a path to address an unfolding humanitarian crisis, namely the vulnerability the low- and middle-income countries face against the delta variant,” Hotez said in a statement.

Hotez added that the Texas Children's center does not plan to make a profit on the new vaccine, calling it “a gift to the world,” noting that the center will transfer the vaccine to producers in India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Botswana.

“This was an effort of a team of 20+ scientists @TexasChildrens @BCM_TropMed co-led by me and my brilliant science partner for the last 20 years @mebottazzi,” Hotez said in a tweet.

This comes as most of the world is currently dealing with a winter surge of COVID-19 infections due to the highly transmissible omicron variant.

In a statement, Biological E. said it plans to manufacture 75 million doses a month, anticipating more than 100 million doses per month by February 2022.

Texas gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke (D) praised the news on Twitter Tuesday.

“Congratulations to @PeterHotez and his team at Texas Children’s Hospital. They’ve developed an affordable Covid vaccine that will save lives in low income countries. Making Texas proud!”
Some background on Biological E company:

Biological E. Limited (BE), a Hyderabad-based Pharmaceuticals & Biologics Company founded in 1953, is the first private sector biological products company in India and the first pharmaceutical company in Southern India. BE develops, manufactures and supplies vaccines and therapeutics. BE supplies its vaccines to over 100 countries and its therapeutic products are sold in India and the USA. BE currently has 8 WHO-prequalified vaccines in its portfolio. In recent years, BE has embarked on new initiatives for organisational expansion such as developing generic injectable products for the regulated markets, exploring synthetic biology and metabolic engineering...
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile - per CDC last 24 hours in USA saw *more* than 500,000 new cases..(about twice than previous worse day about a year ago) at current doubling rate it will not be surprising that the count may reach a million by the end of this year.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Amber G. wrote:Meanwhile - per CDC last 24 hours in USA saw *more* than 500,000 new cases..(about twice than previous worse day about a year ago) at current doubling rate it will not be surprising that the count may reach a million by the end of this year.
I think we probably should stop counting cases if Omicron is mild enough. Delhi had 400+ cases. Not a single case of hospitalization or oxygen requirement
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ry=USA~GBR

UK is still looking good in terms of hospitalizations but US not so good.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by mappunni »

My take from Texas -- Know of at least three folks where were triple vaxed who got Omicron variant. Were sick for a couple of days after testing positive. Day 3 is almost normal. Day 5 tested negative.

Vaccinated folks recover fast and symptoms very mild - cold, cough, sore throat and only one had a mild fever.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Atmavik wrote:https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co ... ry=USA~GBR

UK is still looking good in terms of hospitalizations but US not so good.
US is having Delta. Last week CDC thought they had 70% Omicron but looks like they were a week early with their prediction. Yesterday they reached 50-50.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile: ("mild or not")
- 4x kids hospitalizations in NYC (increase in pediatric hospital #COVID19 admissions for Dec 19th versus week of Dec 5th).
-Hospitalizations in Austin (Texas) are up 138% in one week (My local county (in Ohio) where we are keeping much closer watch situation is quite alarming - lot of active cases and ICU situation already alarming - not surprising 99% is being used by non-vaccinated patients. Somewhat good news is people are becoming more sensible - free testing kits and mask etc, which just a few weeks ago were not much in demand , now attract lines)

- Pediatric ICU hospitalizations for COVID19 for ages 0-9 also at record high in France.
Image

- UK hospitals are surpassing even the pessimistic forecasts -- Hospital hospital admissions—all over England (fastest in London area but other places are growing too) now suddenly reporting a about 54% increase in hospitalizations in one week… This is extra concerning because it is now notably **ahead** of LSHTM Omicron hospitalization forecast!
Image

(Keep in mind— the surging in England is there even though they observe much stricter isolation policies than the US’s CDC - Also UK is NOT downplaying it as “mild”?)..

US Things are already very concerning ,and likely will see an even worse future trajectory...

Sure there are encouraging scientific reports such as a yet another in vivo study of Omicron infection today, it sure is looking that this variant has less virulence, less chance of inducing Covid pneumonia.

But Hospitals admissions are rising fast..vastly by unvaccinated people. Have heard from *many* who tested +ive even after boosters but serious illness is still predominately among unvaccinated - ---
Here is some data for US:
U.S. COVID update: Surge continues, number in hospital sees biggest jump since July 2020

- New cases: 500 K
- Average: 268 K (+31,754)
- In hospital: 79 K (+5,572)
- In ICU: 17 K (+456)
- New deaths: 2,623
---
-- 7-day average of daily coronavirus cases in the U.S. reaches 267,738, the highest since the pandemic began.
--Number of Americans hospitalized with COVID-19 tops 76,000, highest since September.
(France to Greece to Australia - every country we are tracking is reporting *highest* increase in one day).

-- Even China - reports 182 new coronavirus cases :eek: , the biggest one-day increase since early 2020, as officials try to contain Xian outbreak. (Note: China is one country - I have to admit where even our best mathematical minds and tools can not sanitize the data or extract useful information)

--- For India the parameters are somewhat stable - In about a month we would see "higher" numbers and peak in later part of February. Masks are (IMO) very necessary - along with getting as many people vaccinated (boosted etc) in next months as possible.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile News video from China about this "mild" virus..

China's Xi'an, which is currently on lockdown, launches city-wide disinfection as COVID cases continue to rise (Video: 北京头条)

(As said in the previous post - China - reports 182 new coronavirus cases :eek: , the biggest one-day increase since early 2020 so the officials are trying to contain Xian outbreak)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

New wave seems to be here. Let's hope for the best.
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

For doctors here about Pfizer's New pill Paxlovid - which is understandably quite a bit in news.

At present it has approval in USA and Doctors in India are quite excited - Hopefully get it approved and have India manufacture it on fast track. (Pfizer, if everything works will license it to be manufactured

A article by Dr. Topal : Why Paxlovid is a Just-in-Time Breakthrough
The first potent anti-Covid pill will be a big help

We’re desperately in need of some good news—this is it. This week the results from 2 clinical trials of Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir) became available, coinciding with the continued (second) surge of Delta in the United States and the rapid emergence of the Omicron strain. The timing for validation of the potency and safety of a whole new approach to tackling the virus couldn’t be better.

Another is a Nice Video by Dr Seheult who explains this Pfizer COVID pill, how it works, who it's for
and what is the evidence


*** This video, and the above article is *not* from Pfizer but from reputable scientists, it is a little technical so meant for doctors here ***
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Data in nutshell:

Unvaccinated: 451 cases per 100k
Vaccinated: 134 cases per 100k
Boosted: 48 cases per 100k
Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k..

CDC now shows every U.S. state as having high levels of COVID-19 transmission:

Image

- New cases: 484,377
- Average: 302,132 (+34,394)
- States reporting: 50/50
- In hospital: 84,293 (+5,594)
- In ICU: 17,577 (+220)
- New deaths: 1,937
- Average: 1,232 (-17)
(7-day average of daily coronavirus cases in the U.S. reaches 300,000, the highest since the pandemic began!)
chetak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

that sure learned him.

an economist, anti vaxxer, anti lockdown, clown

prime contender for the आ बैल मुझे मार ‌(aa bail mujhe maar) award 2021


https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1476198911358472193

@BNODesk. 15h
Dutch economist Robin Fransman, the founder of an anti-lockdown group who refused to get vaccinated because coronavirus poses a "minimal risk," has died of COVID-19. He was 53 8:00 pm · 29 Dec 2021
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Prasad »

If I'm not wrong, there is currently no vaccine for <5 kids. So that is definitely a massive chunk of very vulnerable population right now that Omicron seems to hit hard.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

Prasad wrote:If I'm not wrong, there is currently no vaccine for <5 kids. So that is definitely a massive chunk of very vulnerable population right now that Omicron seems to hit hard.
vaccine for younger than 5 is still under trials. my 5 yr old got her 2nd shot this month. its essentially the same vaccine with a lower dosage.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

The Covid Pill For India: What We Know
New Delhi: NDTV spoke today to the manufacturer of the recently-cleared Covid pill for India. US pharma giant Merck has licensed the Molnupiravir to more than a dozen firms that will manufacture it in India.

Here's what we know now about this pill after a detailed interview with Dr D Srinivas Reddy, the top boss at Optimus Pharma, one of the companies which will make the pill after emergency approval was given two days ago.

- In trials in India involving more than 1,000 people, most patients who took the full course tested negative after five days.
- This is a prescription-only pill, it will not be available over-the-counter.
- Cost of the full course is ₹ 2,500 but this price could reduce over time to ₹ 400 per course.
- The full five-day course consists of 8 tablets per day.
- Take 4 pills in the morning (on empty stomach) and 4 in the evening.
- The early rollout of the pill will focus on making it available in metros.
- The pill will be available for use in a week.

Dr Reddy of Optimus Pharma said the company is also in talks to make a second Covid pill, PAXLOVID, which was developed by Pfizer and which shows an efficacy of 90% as compared to 30% for Molnupiravir.

Once emergency approval is obtained for the Pfizer version, it could be ready for use in India by Optimus in five to six months, Dr Reddy claimed. He said it will be much more expensive than Molnupiravir and could cost as much as four times the price of the Merck pill which will be deployed in a week.
Pfizer is Apple of Pharma world...5-6 months time...Hopefully, GoI will encourage more Indian Pharma companies to explore tie-up options with Pfizer & in turn offer their manufacturing facilities to shorten the arrival time frames. And 10,000 Rupess per course...it is not cheap unless covered by Medical Insurance or GoI might step in & help subsidize the prices for a while...better than lockdowns & other measures which will impact economically!
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

Has BB conducted any studies on their own about efficacy of Covaxin against Omicron? Pfizer & Moderna conducted trails by themselves and hopefully BB are also doing it...I hope Amber G is right and in a month, GoI will allow some of the newer vaccines to be taken as a booster shot!
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by srin »

I'm confused about the booster dose and would love to understand more.

If the spike protein mutation in Omicron variant renders the current vaccines (that are based on spike protein identification unlike say Covaxin which uses entire virus) ineffective, how will a booster dose help ?
If the current two dose vaccine is already losing effectiveness, how long will the effect of booster dose last ?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjayc »

COVAXIN® for Children: Study demonstrates robust safety and immunogenicity in 2-18 Volunteers.

• COVAXIN is the one of the first COVID-19 vaccines in the world to generate data in 2-18 year age group.
• Phase II/III, Open-Label, Multi-centre Study was conducted to evaluate the Safety, Reactogenicity, and Immunogenicity of the Whole-Virion Inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine (COVAXIN®) in healthy children and adolescents in the 2-18 age group.
• Whole-Virion inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine (BBV152) has proven to be safe, well-tolerated, and immunogenic in paediatric subjects in phase II/III study. Neutralizing antibodies in children on an average 1.7 times higher than in adults.
• No serious adverse event was reported. Pain at the injection site was the most commonly reported adverse event. No cases of myocarditis or blood clots were reported, as expected with inactivated vaccines.


Hyderabad, December 30, 2021: Bharat Biotech International Limited (BBIL), a global leader in vaccine innovation and developer of vaccines for infectious diseases, today announced that BBV152 (COVAXIN), its whole-virion inactivated COVID-19 vaccine candidate, has proven to be safe, well-tolerated, and immunogenic in paediatric subjects in phase II/III study.

Bharat Biotech had conducted phase II/III, open-label, and multicenter studies to evaluate the safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity COVAXIN® in healthy children and adolescents in the 2-18 age group. The clinical trials conducted in the paediatric population between June 2021 to September 2021 have shown robust safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity. The data was submitted to the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation (CDSCO) during October 2021 and received emergency use nod for children aged 12-18 from DCGI, recently.
In the study, no serious adverse event was reported. 374 subjects reported either mild or moderate severity symptoms with 78.6% getting resolved within 1 day. Pain at the injection site was the most commonly reported adverse event.

Dr. Krishna Ella, Chairman and Managing Director, Bharat Biotech, said, “COVAXIN®’s clinical trial data from the pediatric population is very encouraging. Safety of the vaccine is critical for children, and we are glad to share that COVAXIN® has now proven data for safety and immunogenicity in children. We have now achieved our goal of developing a safe and efficacious COVID-19 vaccine for adults and children. Vaccines are a great preventive tool; the power of vaccines can only be harnessed if used prophylactically.”
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

We need Nasal Vaccine too ... Much easier to give and much faster. Hope 3rd phase trials are going on ...
Zynda
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

It seems like 3rd wave in India has started and cases have began to surge suddenly...till yesterday in BLR case numbers were around 250...today its 500+...hopefully in offices, people will start following Covid norms again...at least wrt to seating spacing & wearing good quality masks.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

srin wrote:I'm confused about the booster dose and would love to understand more.

If the spike protein mutation in Omicron variant renders the current vaccines (that are based on spike protein identification unlike say Covaxin which uses entire virus) ineffective, how will a booster dose help ?
If the current two dose vaccine is already losing effectiveness, how long will the effect of booster dose last ?
Let me answer this - (There are some good references (or ask a good expert) for basics understanding so consult these for details but here are a few points in some what simplified terms.)

The neutralization of antibodies can be relatively easily studied (and have been studied within weeks of the full sequencing was done of the new variant) and we now have a good data - most is published - about various vaccines and how booster dose will (or will not) be 'effective' as far as antibodies are concerned. In short - mRNA vaccines (Moderna doing very good, followed by Pfizer) are doing good (~75% after booster - a number generally given in news papers). Covidshield not that great and J&J, sputnik doing even worse. I have not seen Covaxin data but it is doing better than covidshield (which is expected). Covovax, Corbevax etc are effective against Omicron - the rates vary but in short this is fair to say. But - this is related to neutralization of antibodies in lab environment. . Pfizer booster dose, we know is effective with that efficacy for at least a month - most likely for few months. Of course, in a few months, if need be, new more effective vaccine can be made for a new variant.

But there are T- cells or NK cells etc. The study of these takes longer but recent studies bring good news -- *all* (including Covidshield) all still quite helpful in fighting the disease -- you may get infected but mostly mild symptoms. ( I will put some reference here later). (Even J&J booster was helpful)

I may put some more details later.

---
Particular interest to me were some large-scale studies from Sweden with booster shots after two shots of Covidshied (AZ) (consisting of tens of thousands in the study) - Time period of study (IIRC) is mostly Delta but some recent data is also there). Here three cases were considered. They had Moderna (half doze booster after 2 shots of AZ), Pfizer, and AZ. Moderna did the best, Pfizer was little behind (in 70-80 range for mRNA) but AZ booster still restored the 'effectiveness' to about 50% - which is considered very good.

In short -- No one can be 100% sure (will only be known after a long study later) which way is the "best"/perfect, but *any* form of booster will be of *very* good. **No doubt about it **
(Trend at present in US/Canada/Europe - getting mRNA booster but this is also due to the fact that they are mostly available)
Hope this helps.
Last edited by Amber G. on 31 Dec 2021 01:41, edited 1 time in total.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

I propose as a course for future research, CRIPR type in vivio restoration of the sequence of mutated targets to restore immune vulnerability.

Copyright, trademark, marque deposee etc etc.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

BharatBiotech
@BharatBiotech
·
4h
Immunogenicity and safety of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (BBV152) in children from 2 to 18 years of age: an open-label, age-de-escalation phase 2/3 study

https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/202 ... 21268468v1

#covaxin #covaxinapproval #childrensafety #covid #COVID19 #covid19vaccine #BharatBiotech
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21268468v1
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile:
- GoI allows export of 70 million Covovax vaccine doses to Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand
(This in addition to about 20 million export to Indonesia - The trial in US/UK the efficacy of this is at the same level as mRNA vaccines).

- 600+ Millions (64% of all eligible adults) in India are fully vaccinated. 845 Millions (90% of all adults) have at least one shot. Total number of shots are: 1.45 Billions.

- US is reporting 484K+ new coronavirus cases, setting world record.
- Florida - 78K (By far the biggest one-day increase)
- New York state reports 74K new coronavirus cases, (also the biggest one-day increase on record, including 44 K in New York City) Ohio, my home town - biggest increase in hospitalizations.

-(Switzerland reports 19K also the biggest one-day increase on record so are other countries from Sweden to Australia)

- Paris is starting outdoor Mask mandate. (Again new cases are breaking records).

- South Africa continues on the trajectory predicted by SUTRA (data up to 16th Dec).
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(As we said - India is similar to South Africa in some respects -- Both have young population (about 80% population is below 45 years). Both have high natural immunity (around 80%). Last wave in both was due to Delta-mutant. Fast rise and fast fall - all without any lock-down etc)

- Denmark appears to follow trajectory by predicted by SUTRA - Denmark *appears* to have stabilized, value of β is down (there covid-controls are having some effects)

India specific comments in next post - Still "projecting" (with some assumptions) peak in February -- some cities (eg Delhi) may see peak earlier (in January).. see how peoples behaves etc...
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Zynda wrote:It seems like 3rd wave in India has started and cases have began to surge suddenly...till yesterday in BLR case numbers were around 250...today its 500+...hopefully in offices, people will start following Covid norms again...at least wrt to seating spacing & wearing good quality masks.
Once phase becomes stable, SUTRA model will capture current data/parameter and hopefully IITK/IITH will make city/district lever graphs available for administration and people. (predictive power for a few weeks by this model is very good).

So some cities may see early peaks (in January) but at present the projection is mid/late February for most of the India. India is a larger country and it will take some time to spread different parts peaking at different time - even though reach parameter is nearly 100% for most of the India so lock downs etc will not prevent (it may slow down) from spreading.

Following covid norms - especially good masks, avoid indoor crowding, good ventilation is the key. (Social distancing is less important than having good masks as social distancing is not going to help much in closed spaces - transmission is through air - and not only through big water droplets).
Using Masks should start NOW.
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

vijayk wrote:
>>Immunogenicity and safety of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (BBV152) in children from 2 to 18 years of age: an open-label, age-de-escalation phase 2/3 study
<<<
Zynda wrote:Has BB conducted any studies on their own about efficacy of Covaxin against Omicron? ..hope Amber G is right and in a month, GoI will allow some of the newer vaccines to be taken as a booster shot!
There have been some posts about children and vaccines. Covovax, Corbevax etc are good candidates for children too.. Covaxin is the main entry (It's safe for children etc in trials)

An emergency use authorization (EUA) application for COVAXIN vaccine candidate to
US_FDA has been submitted on Nov 5, 2021 for ages 2-18. It’s now under review
https://bit.ly/3sJrxuB

---
There are likely to be many announcements in India and US regarding boosters - Obviously GoI has qualified doctors and experts who are watching all such reports and they have good options.

In USA - There is lot of talk and it is *very* likely that boosters for 12 and up will be approved shortly. Similarly there may be more announcements regrading children's vaccines. (There is talk of third dose for Pfizer - or revising doses for children etc -so please be updated on any new info).
(In our household all 5+ year have been fully vaccinated for a long lime - (they took part in trials and got 'unblinded' - with all of them with real thing. We also have 2 three year olds who are also in the study - yet to be officially unblinded)
Atmavik
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

Uk hospitalization rate is still looking good. That’s a good sign for the vaccines and boosters

We will know more by next week
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Omicron is 'not the same disease' as previous Covid variants: Oxford scientist
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/29/omicron ... ntist.html
Horrific scenes seen in previous Covid-19 waves are “now history,” according to John Bell, a regius professor of medicine at the University of Oxford and the U.K. government’s life sciences advisor.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4 on Tuesday, Bell analyzed data from the U.K., where cases are breaking records and hospital admissions are at their highest since March. He said that the number of people in ICUs who are vaccinated remains “very, very low.”

“The incidence of severe disease and death from this disease [Covid] has basically not changed since we all got vaccinated and that’s really important to remember,” he told the BBC.

“The horrific scenes that we saw a year ago — intensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurely — that is now history in my view and I think we should be reassured that that’s likely to continue.”

Discussing the new omicron variant, he added: “The disease does appear to be less severe, and many people spend a relatively short time in hospital. They don’t need high-flow oxygen, average length of stay is apparently three days, this is not the same disease as we were seeing a year ago.”
disha
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

Following this thread and the numbers:

The O-Xi-Moron virus seems to be a fortunate thing, particularly for the vaccinated:

Why?
Unvaccinated: 451 cases per 100k
Vaccinated: 134 cases per 100k
Boosted: 48 cases per 100k
Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k..
Extrapolating to US Data

The vaccinated to unvaccinated mortality rate differential is 10x

The boosted to unvaccinated mortality rate differential is 60x

62% of the US population is fully vaccinated. That is 203 M is fully vaccinated (329M * 0.62). Hence the mortality rate by the above statistics will be 5 per million (means 203 * 5 = 1015).

There is a catch here, the mortality rate in ages <18 is very low! 655 of ~798k.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/119 ... by-age-us/

Just a comparison, here are the yearly deaths in <25 years due to :

1. Opiod deaths (2019) : 3683 (6x more than covid) https://teens.drugabuse.gov/drug-facts/ ... oses-youth and & [url]https://www.kff.org/other/state- ... 2asc%22%7D
2. Accidents (2020) : ~6000 (12x more than covid) https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehic ... age-group/

If there is an epidemic among less than <25 years, then it is *not* covid epidemic, but opiod epidemic.

Furthermost of the unvaccinated are in the <25 years, means the impact of covid on unvaccinated young will be lesser than the unvaccinated old.

https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID ... /gxj9-t96f

Of course there is danger to the unvaccinated. But the danger to everyone and everybody seems to be overblown.

Links:

1. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/cov ... otals.page
2. https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus-ny/

Given the above, it is actually better to stop all the nonsense of lockdowns etc. Just ensure that people who can be vaccinated can get the vaccination at the earliest and let the O-Xi-Moron virus take its course.
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

The US confirmed new cases reported today are already >600,000 and still rising (yesterday's 484,000 was already a world record).

Final count just short of 600K (some states still not reporting), almost double any previous day through the pandemic.

Also over 5,500 new hospitalizations since yesterday that gets total up to ~90,000

Image
Zynda
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

Are they any quarantine rules for domestic travel? I am not traveling but @ office, next month a couple of people have planned travels for weddings & such...curious if they have to quarantine themselves after returning to BLR (or at least show negative RT-PCR certificate)? I am not seeing any kind of restrictions in terms of crowd capacity in public transports etc...I guess even Govt is hoping for a mild Omicron rather than impose restrictions which will have an impact economically!
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by putnanja »

sanjayc wrote:
COVAXIN® for Children: Study demonstrates robust safety and immunogenicity in 2-18 Volunteers.

• COVAXIN is the one of the first COVID-19 vaccines in the world to generate data in 2-18 year age group.
• Phase II/III, Open-Label, Multi-centre Study was conducted to evaluate the Safety, Reactogenicity, and Immunogenicity of the Whole-Virion Inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine (COVAXIN®) in healthy children and adolescents in the 2-18 age group.
• Whole-Virion inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine (BBV152) has proven to be safe, well-tolerated, and immunogenic in paediatric subjects in phase II/III study. Neutralizing antibodies in children on an average 1.7 times higher than in adults.
• No serious adverse event was reported. Pain at the injection site was the most commonly reported adverse event. No cases of myocarditis or blood clots were reported, as expected with inactivated vaccines.


Hyderabad, December 30, 2021: Bharat Biotech International Limited (BBIL), a global leader in vaccine innovation and developer of vaccines for infectious diseases, today announced that BBV152 (COVAXIN), its whole-virion inactivated COVID-19 vaccine candidate, has proven to be safe, well-tolerated, and immunogenic in paediatric subjects in phase II/III study.

Bharat Biotech had conducted phase II/III, open-label, and multicenter studies to evaluate the safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity COVAXIN® in healthy children and adolescents in the 2-18 age group. The clinical trials conducted in the paediatric population between June 2021 to September 2021 have shown robust safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity. The data was submitted to the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation (CDSCO) during October 2021 and received emergency use nod for children aged 12-18 from DCGI, recently.
In the study, no serious adverse event was reported. 374 subjects reported either mild or moderate severity symptoms with 78.6% getting resolved within 1 day. Pain at the injection site was the most commonly reported adverse event.

Dr. Krishna Ella, Chairman and Managing Director, Bharat Biotech, said, “COVAXIN®’s clinical trial data from the pediatric population is very encouraging. Safety of the vaccine is critical for children, and we are glad to share that COVAXIN® has now proven data for safety and immunogenicity in children. We have now achieved our goal of developing a safe and efficacious COVID-19 vaccine for adults and children. Vaccines are a great preventive tool; the power of vaccines can only be harnessed if used prophylactically.”
Please post links for all quotes from articles.
disha
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

The way the post is worded, it appears like unnecessary scare mongering.
Amber G. wrote:
Also over 5,500 new hospitalizations since yesterday that gets total up to ~90,000
You may be right with numbers, but please provide links to above data. Possibly link to download the CSVs as well. Check my post if you need any guidance.

An image from PBS will not do, does not give much information other than a trend line.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Atmavik wrote:@suraj San , what’s the state of covaxin production rate? We will need these for boosters.
No, the boosters can and should be fulfilled from the Covishield production of which there is plenty. With the ongoing mix and match trials, there's also the potential for Covovax or Corbevax to be used for boosters. Covaxin ideally would be prioritized for children since it has EUA for 12+ group now, potentially with an expansion to 2+ .
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