Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

archan · Post by **archan** » 29 Mar 2014 12:46

Another one coming up. Some retard from SP says NM and Mayawati are both single, and goes on to say something unacceptable about Mayawati sitting on Modi's (no idea what, it was bleeped on TV). Right beside him is a bearded secular capped one, laughing and appreciating fervently. Sab auqaat mein aa rahe hain (they are coming out in their real colors).
There must be a real fear of Modi.

archan · Post by **archan** » 29 Mar 2014 14:07

Love how this Imran Masood thing became a thorn in Cong musharraf at this time. Someone had the video and saved it for the right time.

Madam Bahuguna is seen saying, it is 7 days before the election, he is a winning candidate, we will not change the candidate. Rahul baba had to cancel the rally. Shows them up as the real communal ones.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 29 Mar 2014 14:18

Sabbir Ali needs to be kicked out ASAP. Please use twitter to bring pressure.

archan · Post by **archan** » 29 Mar 2014 14:36

Supratik wrote:Sabbir Ali needs to be kicked out ASAP. Please use twitter to bring pressure.

Done.

This is just breaking news.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 29 Mar 2014 14:40

Apparently, Zafar Sareshwala, known as Modi's Muslim interlocutor has defended Sabir Ali's inclusion. What's cooking?

jimmyray · Post by **jimmyray** » 29 Mar 2014 14:42

Supratik wrote:Sabbir Ali needs to be kicked out ASAP. Please use twitter to bring pressure.

Sabir Ali asks BJP leadership to put his induction on hold
Sushil Modi also tweeted that Sabir Ali's induction in BJP is on hold

Ravi Shankar Prasad @rsprasad_bjp: Sabir Ali asks BJP leadership to put his induction on hold

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 29 Mar 2014 14:45

Yupo. Done.

>>TheNewsMinute ‏@thenewsminute1 3m
TV reports: BJP cancels Sabir Ali's membership following protests from several party leaders

Meanwhile, campaigning finallys tarts looking like campaigning only....

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2014 15:18

ibnlive. looks like certified sikular is keeping options open if he wins...or atleast wants no congi stench on his suit.
-----

Interestingly, no symbols of the Congress party for Rohini and her motley bunch, many of whom are wearing Together with Nandan T-shirts and caps. Rohini herself is wearing one such cap. A fractured left hand supported by a sling notwithstanding, Rohini has been out since early morning, with several public engagements lined up for the day. "I am just happy that both my feet are alright and my right had is alright. That's what I am focusing on", she quips. To be noted is a small water bottle tucked into her sling.
The team is knocking at every door in the residential block, where Rohini introduces herself. "My husband Nandan is standing for the elections. He needs your support," she tells the residents. Some of the residents are delighted to have the surprise morning visitor when they open their doors, while others honestly reveal to her their voting choices.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 29 Mar 2014 16:21

My take on results lineup, in bite sized chunks of 75 seats each.

chunk 1 - GV: UP + Bihar + JH = 75
chunk 2 - West-central India: GJ+RJ+MP+CT ~ 75
chunk 3 - North (Delhi+UKD+HR+HP+PJ+J&K) + central-south (MH + KA +Goa) + East (Asom+ArP) + rest (UTs+AP+TN+KL+WB+Odisha) ~ 75

total: 225.

the third chunk is the hardest to come by and by far the diciest only. But what to do only.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 29 Mar 2014 17:06

nageshks wrote:
No, it is not. Today, Sadananda Gowda had a hard time explaining the BJP actions to his volunteers. Many people asked him why he doesn't get IM to campaign for him, but wants Hindutva folk, when his party clearly does not care about national interests. He promised to convey their sentiments and get action soon. The effect on the coast is 10 times worse. I won't be surprised if BJP loses all three seats on the coast in Karnataka now.

But the fellow was already gone yesterday, and if on the coast of KA they are so fickle, then it is a gamble to have gotten those seats anyway. Why are they complaining now when the fellow was kicked out and never given a ticket?
I understand what you are saying and someone like Ramdev baba could have raised a huge stink and cost the BJP many seats, but he didn't - at least not yet.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Mar 2014 17:12

Mort Walker wrote: But the fellow was already gone yesterday, and if on the coast of KA they are so fickle, then it is a gamble to have gotten those seats anyway. Why are they complaining now when the fellow was kicked out and never given a ticket?

What you don't understand is that Bhatkal is from the Karnataka coast and they have endured his atrocities far longer than anyone else. Would you like to explain to them that Bhatkal and his cohorts are someone the BJP wants to keep around - to the kith and kin of those who suffered from his atrocities? Bhatkal is a huge no-no. If the BJP is seen having a truck with his sympathiser, it will destroy the BJP USP itself.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 29 Mar 2014 17:25

^^^Don't you think the BJP at the national level was aware of that? Maybe not. It probably was a blunder at the national level and even Ramdev Baba has said it was a mistake. I can understand the suffering from Bhaktal, but why are they still upset on the KA coast and willing to vote for another party instead?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 29 Mar 2014 17:28

I am loving this, sabir ali membership cancelled. Bjp is responding well to inputs from well wishers.

Hope they do the same after winning. Ignore my rants in the last 24 hrs.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 29 Mar 2014 17:34

^^^It was a big mistake and shows that at the national level, not everything is a well oiled machine. Let's put it behind us please.
I pray your support for NAMO is still intact?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 29 Mar 2014 17:55

Mort Walker wrote:^^^It was a big mistake and shows that at the national level, not everything is a well oiled machine. Let's put it behind us please.
I pray your support for NAMO is still intact?

yes sir indeed. just got word yesterday from office to be in india on business next month. will be in chennai around 20th april. will vote on 24th in chennai. My seat is chennai south, l ganesan is BJP candidate, will vote for him, not sure if he can win, but we have to do our job.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 29 Mar 2014 18:08

It is called Swami Karyam and Swa karyam at the same time. Both the personal work and mother land duty at the same time. Great.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Mar 2014 18:28

muraliravi wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:^^^It was a big mistake and shows that at the national level, not everything is a well oiled machine. Let's put it behind us please.
I pray your support for NAMO is still intact?
yes sir indeed. just got word yesterday from office to be in india on business next month. will be in chennai around 20th april. will vote on 24th in chennai. My seat is chennai south, l ganesan is BJP candidate, will vote for him, not sure if he can win, but we have to do our job.

Follow Sharad Pawar's diktat and vote 10 times. I know you have a great grand father, great grand mother and their cousins as well.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 29 Mar 2014 19:43

or follow me 33 times

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 29 Mar 2014 20:12

Vamsee wrote a good short blog on how SM can do some micromanaging of politics.

All these takleef by supporters is good and bad. BJP reacting to bursts from supporters has its downfall. It is akin to public companies focusing on quarterly results and immediate concerns of shareholders.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 29 Mar 2014 20:19

SwamyG wrote:Vamsee wrote a good short blog on how SM can do some micromanaging of politics.

All these takleef by supporters is good and bad. BJP reacting to bursts from supporters has its downfall. It is akin to public companies focusing on quarterly results and immediate concerns of shareholders.

At election time. During government, we still have to see!

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 29 Mar 2014 20:24

NM has shown guts in past to take losses to execute unpopular decisions. Power reforms are the top item in that list (although due to SECULARISM, it is mandir demolition->shifting is highlighted more). There were multiple deaths in police firing for killing protesters who were planning to destroy power distribution points. The grievance was no-free-power. It is very rare these days to see unauthorized "hooks" on the official SEB lines. Diamond industry protested vehemently, especially the Saurashtra-region dominated polishers in South Gujarat.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Mar 2014 20:36

muraliravi wrote:I am loving this, sabir ali membership cancelled. Bjp is responding well to inputs from well wishers.

Hope they do the same after winning. Ignore my rants in the last 24 hrs.

I see a danger to BJP:Elders, rebels what not that they can be future targets of twitter campains!

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 29 Mar 2014 20:49

Sheela Bhatt ‏@sheela2010 4m
Bjp fellows, expect sting operation involving wife of bjp MP from tribal area and some Delhi based leaders

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 29 Mar 2014 21:25

Very suspect survey, not because BJP numbers have tapered (which is expected after seat distribution), but something does not induce the confidence in me.

I have highlighted highly suspect states, no way BJP can get 9 in haryana. In Bihar also numbers dont make sense. I think they just wanted to a cook a story. I will wait for csds. But just posted it for consumption

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Mar 2014 22:05

muraliravi, Just as you tabulated the Neilsen survey only need to tabulate the current Neilsen to CSDS ,IBTL survey to give the snapshot. What you have done shows trends.\Thanks for all the work done in tabulating the surveys.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 29 Mar 2014 22:58

I still see scope for an additional 20-30 seats.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 29 Mar 2014 23:19

How reliable has Nielsen been in the past ? Not necessarily in a precise prediction but say within a range ?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Mar 2014 23:54

Sanjay, One problem is Neilsen is a Congress survey agency. So we don't know its veracity.

New game is to downplay BJP margin to give hope to the other side an prevent alliances from forming. Reason is if the potential allies think BJP wont make it then they wont commit a priori.

Panchatantra book 3.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Mar 2014 23:54

Sanjay wrote:How reliable has Nielsen been in the past ? Not necessarily in a precise prediction but say within a range ?

Even in the previous polls, Nielsen was the weakest. c-voter is very conservative to the challenger. CDSS has improved its models a lot.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 29 Mar 2014 23:57

ramana wrote:Sanjay, One problem is Neilsen is a Congress survey agency. So we don't know its veracity.

That is correct. They have been officially contracted by congress.

From my BJP sources: A BJP top representative was in the US approx 3 years back seeking to strike a deal with the top 5 market research (from a poll survey perspective) and they badly wanted to strike a deal with Nielsen. Unfortunately the Nielsen guys politely refused since they had just struck a deal with Congress. So BJP choose a different org.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 30 Mar 2014 00:00

Wow, Jassoo Mithaiwala kicked out of BJP for 6 years.

Will he join Sonia or Mullah yam?

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 30 Mar 2014 00:02

nageshks wrote:I had a few talks with Sadananda Gowda's campaign managers. The general feeling is that BJP has scored a huge self goal. Many people on the coast are hopping mad about Bhatkal (they suffered Bhatkal's atrocities long before the IM poster boy made it big on the national scene), and BJP, by getting a terrorist sympathiser, has destroyed its USP of being a nationalist party. But then - I suspect secularisation of the BJP is underway, and like the animals in Animal Farm, we will be left looking in dismay at the coming BJP government. I don't know what the joys of secularism are, but judging by its attraction to BJP folk, there is something I cannot fathom.

What is even more interesting is the complete lack of outrage on this board from the ones who were fulminating against the evil of Muthalik. So - it is okay if a IM sympathiser is inducted into BJP, but terrible if a Yindoo fundamentalist is inducted? Goes to show just how deep Indian secularism runs even on this board.

BJP in coastal Karnataka has bigger problems than Sabir Ali / Bhatkal bros. Naleen Kumar Kateel has done zilch, nada for his constituency but has been given another chance. The charmless Shobha Karandlaje has been asked to taken on JP Hegde of Congress. And why is Sadananda Gowda contesting from North Bangalore ? Anant Kumar Hegde will not have it easy either in Uttara Kannada. BJP failed to capitalize on its popularity among Konkanis, Marathis and Brahmins in Uttara Kannada. Today the majority of assembly segments in UK are held by Congress.

Its not the tilt towards secularism that will cost BJP dearly in Karnataka, but choosing wrong candidates/having right candidates in wrong constituencies.

disha · Post by **disha** » 30 Mar 2014 00:06

muraliravi wrote:I am loving this, sabir ali membership cancelled. Bjp is responding well to inputs from well wishers.

Hope they do the same after winning. Ignore my rants in the last 24 hrs.

Look at the results:

1. English MSM is sidelined. Twice SM raised their voices and it was listened! So who has the power now?

2. BJP is saying that it is listening. Yes, two way communication is never going to be perfect. Listening on the ground is never going to be perfect. Currently that is the *ONLY* political party trying to listen!

3. Sabir has been flushed down the toilet, secular credentials and all. There is a saying "dhobi ka kutta, na ghar ka na ghat ka" (washerman's dog, neither for home nor for washerman's ghat).

Yes, when you decide to play in muck., some muck will also come over you. So guys chillax and have some curry instead of worry.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 30 Mar 2014 00:43

Has Chanakya, the agency that predicted AAP's performance in Delhi assembly, come out with any numbers?

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 30 Mar 2014 00:56

OK, next question - given their orientation: underestimate for BJP or overestimate ?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Mar 2014 02:29

Sanjay wrote:OK, next question - given their orientation: underestimate for BJP or overestimate ?

Regarding Nielsen -

Way complex to explain. The places where BJP is in alliances or in potential alliances (those who ca go either way with INC or BJP) such as Maha, Haryana, AP, TN etc, they will show everything on the various alliance partners. In places like UP+Bihar they will bump the results of BJP to the levels even BJP's internals will not be of same number. Overall they will get a number that BJP=215 and INC=115. This gives an overall assumption for BJP followers, lobbyists etc that BJP crosses 200+ so that all these miniscules can be handled later. In reality, the plot it that if BJP falls short of 180, all these can become suddenly powerful to cook a congress led hotch-potch government.

Nielsen is part of the system and it is not independent. By the way to give a glimpse of its involvement, it is also the official surveying agency for a party called YSRC in AP.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 30 Mar 2014 03:14

^^^ I tend to agree. some of their numbers are whacky. KA looks exaggerated. You must be on high dope to even consider the haryana numbers.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 30 Mar 2014 03:28

Ignore seat projection and focus on vote % of these polls.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 30 Mar 2014 04:42

gandharva wrote:Ignore seat projection and focus on vote % of these polls.

They dont give vote % on their webpage. If you want vote share state by state, u have to take the pain of watching the video with these morons

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 30 Mar 2014 05:19

Ulama Council’s Rashadi challenges SP supremo Mulayam Singh in Azamgarh
http://nvonews.com/2014/03/30/ulama-cou ... -azamgarh/