Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 31 Mar 2014 17:58

jagga wrote:Supported neither temple movement nor Rath Yatra: Jaswant
Good riddance, turncoat.

Of course all he did was accompany terrorists to Kandhar. What a waste of intellect and energy at this age.
I wonder what is this senile craze by these old men to fight LS election. They can chose the RS path like so many other have done.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 31 Mar 2014 17:59

More details here IBTL Public Opinion Poll 2014

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Mar 2014 18:04

^^^^
Assam – AIUDF 2 (+1) BJP 6 (+2) Congress 6 (-1)
For the 1st time, BJP along with its allies is challenging the Congress in the North Eastern states

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 31 Mar 2014 18:08

One from the teetar duniya

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 31 Mar 2014 18:15

I am not sure I believe ITBL's Assam predictions. It does not seem to be borne out in any other survey.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 31 Mar 2014 18:19

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 31 Mar 2014 18:25

@gis_research guy on Twitter busy predicting repeat of "India-Shining" disaster in 2014. Not sure what to make of his projections.

Assam giving out mixed signals, IMO most analyses seem to have missed out on the 6-8 small party alliance with NDA. Singha seems to be spot on with his analogy of the 'hard-working' elves.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 31 Mar 2014 18:26

Sanjay wrote:I am not sure I believe ITBL's Assam predictions. It does not seem to be borne out in any other survey.

Cvoter concurs with IBTL assam survey. Check youtube timesnow national projections done in feb by cvoter. Assam should be in the 1st or 2nd video, they go by alphabetical order.

But yes, i trust csds more and i doubt BJP is getting so much upswing in Assam. But you never know, in a wave election, all traditional thoughts and calculations are no good. Only a good honest survey (ground level like csds, not telephonic like most surveys) can hope to capture the impact of the wave

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 31 Mar 2014 18:42

Klaus wrote:@gis_research guy on Twitter busy predicting repeat of "India-Shining" disaster in 2014. Not sure what to make of his projections.

Assam giving out mixed signals, IMO most analyses seem to have missed out on the 6-8 small party alliance with NDA. Singha seems to be spot on with his analogy of the 'hard-working' elves.

Sir, my humble advise based on limited electoral analysis, please take all this twitterati prediction with a bucket of salt. Everyone on twitter (especially BJP folks) think they know everything and that too seat by seat. They want Modi to sit down with them and listen to their advise to increase the seat tally. So while one guy sitting in Mumbai predicts 38 seats for BJP in UP with full confidence as if 1/2 of the contestants are his/her brothers who are feeding him with data by the day, his friend on twitter from his office in kolkata begs to differ and says they will get only 35 because santosh gangwar just called him to update his weakening status in bareily.

I will rather follow mainstream surveys.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 31 Mar 2014 19:26

When does counting begin?

God this is so stressful.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 31 Mar 2014 19:46

shivaganagi is in AIADMK's hand as per source, people have openly told both father / son , neither is going to win

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 31 Mar 2014 19:49

this time TN is going to be very close , with almost every place going to be 3 or even 4 way contest

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 31 Mar 2014 20:02

From reddit
From reddit

The project is in three phases.. I'm working all day today to get this done.

Phase 1: collect data from election commission website. (done)

Phase 2: parse data into browser readable json objects. (done)

Phase 3: Actual website UI (doing)

Phase 4: Simple crowdsourcing to look at hundreds of affidavits to parse the criminal background, and wealth information. (todo)

All the data collected so far is available at: https://github.com/electionindia/electiondata

You may yourself use this data as you wish. All code is released under the GPLv2 FOSS licence.

Your contributions and collaboration on this project is welcome. Simply send a pull request.

Update:

I'm looking for some specific feedback from reddit audience. In the soon to be release website, what kind of information would you like to see (data, affidavits, comparisions) that would make sense one way or another? If someone non-technical you know were to be shown the website, what information should they be easily shown?

Thanks

Update2:

Anyone interested in contributing can join the chatroom at http://tlk.io/electionindia and ping me. If I'm not online, ping me directly via [email protected]

Update 3: last for tonight!

I've pushed a branch called gh-pages with the basic version of the website framework, though the backbone collections/search functionality remains. I'm right now calling the site "Chunaav guru"

. Checkout the 'gh-pages' branch to help with the site. I could use help with css layouts, a logo (and maybe a name? "Amir says" :-p), and general frontend tasks. (app is written in coffeescript/javascript). If anyone has worked with online dbs like firebase.io, get in touch! Or generally get in touch if there's anything you can help with.

My email is above. If you'd like to help, send me a mail with the exact things that you're good at, so it's easy to delegate tasks.

Will post a new thread tomorrow with progress. Cya laters, alligators.

Update 4: I know I said 3 would be last but this is soo cool! I decided to run the update command, and in a matter of seconds, the new data from election commission was pulled! Name changes, typos, additions. Don't you love it when automation just works

. The update: https://github.com/electionindia/electi ... e9d17f8c04

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 31 Mar 2014 20:05

Where is the BPF in Assam? I don't see them loosing Kokrajhar.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 31 Mar 2014 20:12

Counting begins Friday May 16th, 2014. It will probably end by Sunday morning May 18th, 2014. Horse trading and money bags will go back and forth until Wednesday May 21st, 2014 when parties will approach president on formation of government. Expect Lok Sabha inauguration by Saturday May 24th, 2014. Mort Walker will congratulate Mr. Prime Minister Shri Modiji on Monday 26th, 2014.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 31 Mar 2014 20:16

Interview with Modi live on

http://www.news18.com/news/live-news/wa ... 10241.html

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 31 Mar 2014 20:24

Questions:

1. Does campaigning and advertising stop from the 1st election date on 7 APR 2014 or does it continue until 12 MAY 2014?
2. What impact do people think that the armed forces will have now that they are allowed to vote?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Mar 2014 20:28

armed forces and dependents might have some impact in cantonment towns like delhi west but otherwise too small.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 31 Mar 2014 20:29

Has any additional feedback come from the CSDS survey ?

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 31 Mar 2014 20:29

Mort Walker wrote:Questions:

1. Does campaigning and advertising stop from the 1st election date on 7 APR 2014 or does it continue until 12 MAY 2014?
2. What impact do people think that the armed forces will have now that they are allowed to vote?

depends on the individual voting dates for each consituency per my knowledge.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 31 Mar 2014 20:32

Sanjay wrote:Has any additional feedback come from the CSDS survey ?

Its live on ibnlive, you can watch it on their website under live tv tab

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 31 Mar 2014 21:02

Singha wrote:armed forces and dependents might have some impact in cantonment towns like delhi west but otherwise too small.

Hmmm...Since there are over 12 lakh in the Indian military and even more including dependents, I was thinking they could make a big difference now that they are allowed to vote. Also, would they be more prone to vote for the BJP?

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 31 Mar 2014 21:06

I understood from some government employees on election duties: they miss out on their own vote. Is it not unfair to them? Is there no provision for advance voting for people on poll duty?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 31 Mar 2014 21:16

Muppalla wrote:Interview with Modi live on

http://www.news18.com/news/live-news/wa ... 10241.html

I wish the interviewer would shut up when he keeps saying "ji ji".

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 31 Mar 2014 21:20

No there is a provision for them to cast their votes through an pink postal envelope (issued to all gov employees including those on security duty) at the place where they are on duty which is then sent for counting

manju · Post by **manju** » 31 Mar 2014 21:22

svenkat wrote:NNs mother tongue is konkani.

Konkani people in Karnataka speak kannada just as good as any other Karnataka people. A significant number of population in KA (esp in the coastal and border districts) have another language as mother tongue- e.g, telugu, tamil, kodava, tulu, Marathi.. etc. They all do fine with Kannada.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 31 Mar 2014 21:26

This is so stressful. Is BJP TDP alliance done deal? I hate to see a critical state like AP not on board with national level politics. 10 years of Cong has really screwed AP.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 31 Mar 2014 21:26

svenkat wrote:NNs mother tongue is konkani.

Watched that debate. Nilekani could have handled it much better. It is called 'samayasphurti' and a leader needs it a lot.

Look at the AAP candidate. She said my mother tongue is 'Konkini' and do you guys prefer i speak konkini or english. Audience preferred english. She connected with the audience by being honest & spirited.

It is a different matter that she talked about root-level governance in a MP debate unless she meant to change associated laws in parliament.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 31 Mar 2014 21:37

Bjp has just killed everyone else in jharkhand,

In 2009 upa had 30% vote in jharkhand, bjp just 28%, still bjp did better than everyone in seats and won 8/14. Now look at csds, upa 30%, bjp 44% up 4% from their jan survey which showed. 40%. So jharkhand will yield 10-11/14 for sure which is what most surveys are showing

This state deserves a full single party bjp type rule for 10 years, its got everything minerals,water land etc.. It can become india's industrial hub. Its got the manpower too, seen a lot of my really smart batchmates in iit come from ranchi/ jamshedpur/ bokaro etc..

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 31 Mar 2014 21:43

Santosh wrote:This is so stressful. Is BJP TDP alliance done deal? I hate to see a critical state like AP not on board with national level politics. 10 years of Cong has really screwed AP.

I am sure BJP provided enough backing when PVNR went about doing his stellar job at the center, even if con race didn't give him respect he deserved later. This has got to be very important factor even for TDP though NDA needs to bring out such information at appropriate levels. A factor that should be noticed through by all state leaders.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 31 Mar 2014 21:52

I just tweeted this

******
Odisha showing middle-finger to UPA (literally & numerically). See chart below!

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 31 Mar 2014 22:22

Bihar projection by CSDS:

BJP+LJP: 21 to 29
Cong + RJD: 7 to 13
JDU: 2 to 5
AAP: 0

http://khabar.ibnlive.in.com/news/118336/12 (Hindi link)

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 31 Mar 2014 22:37

I think the forecasts for Karnataka & Maharashtra are at variance with what many would presume. The forecasts are showing around 10-15 seats more for the BJP-NDA than what many earlier assumed. There are many factors working against the BJP in these states: candidate selection, local rebellion, split in NDA votes, Congress governments, Sharad Pawar and a relatively better-off Congress organisation.

It would be a great effort if the BJP-NDA gets around 45 seats from these two states.

disha · Post by **disha** » 31 Mar 2014 22:58

Mort Walker wrote:Counting begins Friday May 16th, 2014. It will probably end by Sunday morning May 18th, 2014. Horse trading and money bags will go back and forth until Wednesday May 21st, 2014 when parties will approach president on formation of government. Expect Lok Sabha inauguration by Saturday May 24th, 2014. Mort Walker will congratulate Mr. Prime Minister Shri Modiji on Monday 26th, 2014.

Some dates:

May 22, 1971 - Buddha smiled and Buddh Purnima

May 13, 2014 - Hazrat Ali's birth day
May 14, 2014 - Buddh Poornima
May 17, 2014 - The trend is clearer.
May 24, 2014 - Lok Sabha inaugaration

I just wished Buddha Poornima was on May 17 or even May 24. Divine blessing for sure! Either way, from current trends - earth will shake in May.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 31 Mar 2014 23:06

AjitK wrote:I think the forecasts for Karnataka & Maharashtra are at variance with what many would presume. The forecasts are showing around 10-15 seats more for the BJP-NDA than what many earlier assumed. There are many factors working against the BJP in these states: candidate selection, local rebellion, split in NDA votes, Congress governments, Sharad Pawar and a relatively better-off Congress organisation.

It would be a great effort if the BJP-NDA gets around 45 seats from these two states.

Sir, I think the 3 bolded factors are over rated. Every party does blunders w.r.t candidate selection, we just tend to look at BJP with a magnifying glass, my belief is that candidate selection gets balanced out. Same is the case with local rebellion, if anything this time there is more desertion among congressis. The split in NDA votes wont happen in KA since sriramalu and yeddy are back with BJP. In MH, MNS will only affect SS, they wont put candidates against BJP in most seats (maybe just 1-2 token fights in BJP seats). Since in most SS seats, it is NCP that is the UPA party that fights, it really does not matter who wins, becos I am sure, Modi/BJP can break NCP after polls and make them support BJP.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 31 Mar 2014 23:14

Ashok Sarraff wrote:Bihar projection by CSDS:

BJP+LJP: 21 to 29
Cong + RJD: 7 to 13
JDU: 2 to 5
AAP: 0

http://khabar.ibnlive.in.com/news/118336/12 (Hindi link)

Haiyyo - what will happen to NiKu's dreams of becoming a secular PM

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 31 Mar 2014 23:25

Stones, chappals thrown at Nitish Kumar during poll rallies: Indian Express

With so much love showered on him by his home constituency, there is no need for him to worry..no ?

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 31 Mar 2014 23:31

muraliravi wrote:Sir, I think the 3 bolded factors are over rated. Every party does blunders w.r.t candidate selection, we just tend to look at BJP with a magnifying glass, my belief is that candidate selection gets balanced out. Same is the case with local rebellion, if anything this time there is more desertion among congressis. The split in NDA votes wont happen in KA since sriramalu and yeddy are back with BJP. In MH, MNS will only affect SS, they wont put candidates against BJP in most seats (maybe just 1-2 token fights in BJP seats). Since in most SS seats, it is NCP that is the UPA party that fights, it really does not matter who wins, becos I am sure, Modi/BJP can break NCP after polls and make them support BJP.

Point taken about the candidate selection and local rebellion. Of the top of my head, I think the MNS could damage the NDA in 6-7 seats. In four seats, the Congress could be the direct beneficiary. In five of them, it is fighting against the Sena. The MNS has a core vote in these areas.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 31 Mar 2014 23:51

"dishaMay 22, 1971 - Buddha smiled and Buddh Purnima
I just wished Buddha Poornima was on May 17 or even May 24. Divine blessing for sure! Either way, from current trends - earth will shake in May.

May Be Nilesh Oak ji can take a look at the problem and fix this anomaly with his time travelling/calculating vitual machine.

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 31 Mar 2014 23:54

Jhujar wrote:
"dishaMay 22, 1971 - Buddha smiled and Buddh Purnima
I just wished Buddha Poornima was on May 17 or even May 24. Divine blessing for sure! Either way, from current trends - earth will shake in May.
May Be Nilesh Oak ji can take a look at the problem and fix this anomaly with his time travelling/calculating vitual machine.

I just have this nagging feeling that AAP backers may want to pull off a Ukraine on us and have him start off a 'revolution' just stop NM. Need to be ever more vigilant.