Afghanistan News & Discussion

[Sanjay M]

NYT:

Hazaras Surging Forward in New Afghanistan

[SSridhar]

UK floats Afghan forum idea, India wary

...
It is learnt that Miliband told Krishna that Afghanistan was keen on having a regional forum comprising India, Iran, Pakistan and Russia in place before June 2011, the proposed timeframe for US and NATO troops to start reducing presence in that country.

In May, 2009 the Shanghai Cooperation Org (SCO) announced the Moscow Declaration. It favoured a regional approach by Russia, China, India, Iran and Pakistan. It differed from the US policy of differentiating among the Taliban. Later, in October 2009, the foreign ministers of the RIC triangle of Russia, India and China met in Bangalore and demanded a greater say for themselves in the resolution of the Afghan problem. Having been part of these declarations, India should not hesitate even though Afghanistan is a minefield.

[vijayk]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34687312/ns ... tral_asia/
Jordanian double-agent killed CIA officers
Officials: Perpetrator of Afghan attack was supposed to infiltrate al-Qaida

The suicide bombing on a CIA base in Afghanistan last week was carried out by a Jordanian doctor who was an al-Qaida double agent, Western intelligence officials told NBC News.

Initial reports said that the attack, which killed seven CIA officers, was carried out by a member of the Afghan National Army.

According to Western intelligence officials, the perpetrator was Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi, 36, an al-Qaida sympathizer from the town of Zarqa, which is also the hometown of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian militant Islamist responsible for several devastating attacks in Iraq.

Al-Balawi was arrested by Jordanian intelligence more than a year ago. However, the Jordanians believed that al-Balawi had been successfully reformed and brought over to the American and Jordanian side, setting him up as an agent and sending him off to Afghanistan and Pakistan to infiltrate al-Qaida.

So what happened to the reformed man? He smelled Pakistani air and caught terrorism virus....

[bart]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34687312/ns ... tral_asia/
Jordanian double-agent killed CIA officers
Officials: Perpetrator of Afghan attack was supposed to infiltrate al-Qaida

The suicide bombing on a CIA base in Afghanistan last week was carried out by a Jordanian doctor who was an al-Qaida double agent, Western intelligence officials told NBC News.

Initial reports said that the attack, which killed seven CIA officers, was carried out by a member of the Afghan National Army.

According to Western intelligence officials, the perpetrator was Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi, 36, an al-Qaida sympathizer from the town of Zarqa, which is also the hometown of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian militant Islamist responsible for several devastating attacks in Iraq.

Al-Balawi was arrested by Jordanian intelligence more than a year ago. However, the Jordanians believed that al-Balawi had been successfully reformed and brought over to the American and Jordanian side, setting him up as an agent and sending him off to Afghanistan and Pakistan to infiltrate al-Qaida.

So what happened to the reformed man? He smelled Pakistani air and caught terrorism virus....

So Pakistan/ISI is being absolved of the blame for the attack, in favour of Arab/Al-Queda. How convenient.

[pgbhat]

So Haqqani retaliation was through an Jordanian double agent. Now Unkil's has to come up with new security measures to secure its assets. Their entire network of (arab/paki/afghan) informers across the af-pak grid will be viewed with greater suspicion, causing tremendous takleef to everyone involved. I think even returning to normal intel gathering operations will be a painstakingly long process. Forget about a suitable see-eye-yeah retaliation for now. They can probably do something symbolic like sending a Stratofortress and dropping a few JDAMs on low level abduls.

[ramana]

Thats called "Brutus Fulmen!"

Seriously AlQ has become a movement, an idea and doesn't need direct enabling. You will find an adherent suddenly going jihadi in Terra Del Feugo if he is exposed to the peaceful preachers. The Army Maj in Texas was case in example.

[pgbhat]

Jordanian informant lured CIA operatives into suicide attack, officials say

The base, in Afghanistan's eastern province, is at the heart of the CIA's operations along the Afghan-Pakistan border. It provides critical intelligence for strikes against al-Qaeda and Taliban positions, including targeting information for CIA unmanned aircraft, which carried out more than 50 strikes in Pakistan's autonomous tribal region in the past year. The base also is frequently a setting for debriefing of informants, current and former officials said.

400% sure more than just one informant is involved.

Jordan's official news agency, Petra, said bin Zeid was killed "on Wednesday evening as a martyr while performing the sacred duty of the Jordanian forces in Afghanistan" and provided no further details about his death. Local news reports quoted family members as saying bin Zeid had been in Afghanistan for 20 days and had been scheduled to travel home on the day of the bombing.

His coffin's arrival in Amman on Saturday was handled with unusual pomp, with Jordan's King Abdullah II and his wife, Rania, personally presiding over a funeral and burial in a military cemetery.

[SSridhar]

Apparently, the US was using a lot of Jordanian assets and help in targetting Al Qaeda. Now, that will be in jeopardy until the assets are vetted once again, contingency measures are put in place, and trust can be re-built. This is a master stroke by Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. For the US to pick up the pieces and effectively use the drones once again, it will take some time. They will now be more suspicious of everything and that might hamper speedy operations. The AQAM is really working well and have had some spectacular successes recently.

[pgbhat]

AMMAN, JORDAN - Jordanian soldiers carry the coffin of Jordanian officer Sherif Zeid Ali who was killed in Afghanistan, during an official ceremony on his arrival at Queen Alia airport on January 2, 2010 in Amman, Jordan. Zeid, a distant relative of the Jordanian Royal family, had been in Afghanistan for 20 days when he was killed on the day he was due to return.

[arun]

X Posted.

Looks like the suicide attack targeting the US’s CIA in Afghanistan was linked after all to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

Claims of involvement by Hakimullah Mehsud of the Pakistani Taliban are finding off the record corroboration with the news that a Jordanian national, as claimed by the Pakistani Taliban, was indeed the suicide bomber,:

Source: Jordanian double-agent killed 7 CIA officers in suicide blast

By Barbara Starr, CNN
January 5, 2010 -- Updated 0214 GMT (1014 HKT)

Washington (CNN) -- The suicide bomber who killed seven CIA officials and a Jordanian military officer last week in Afghanistan was a Jordanian double-agent, a former U.S. intelligence official told CNN Monday.

The bomber was a source who came to the base camp in Khost near the Pakistan border for a meeting on December 30, a senior U.S. official also confirmed.

The man had been used by both countries' intelligence services in the past, and had provided information about high-value targets, the senior U.S. official said.

"Yes, it was a joint U.S.-Jordanian source who had provided over the period of his cooperation a lot of very detailed good information that was of high interest at the most senior levels of the U.S government," the former U.S. intelligence official said. ………………………

On Sunday, however, Pakistani Taliban chief Hakimullah Mehsud said in an e-mail that "we claim the responsibility for the attack on the CIA in Afghanistan."

"The suicide bomber was a Jordanian national. This will be admitted by the CIA and the Jordanian government" the message said. ………………………

CNN

[Muppalla]

'A Huge Screw-Up': CIA Attacker May Have Been Well-Known Al Qaeda Blogger

By Michael Isikoff and Mark Hosenball

The suicide bomber who penetrated a CIA base in Afghanistan last week and killed seven officers was not just any Al Qaeda double agent: He may have been a well known Al Qaeda blogger who boasted of his “love of jihad and martyrdom” in a Taliban web magazine just a few months ago.

The new details emerging Monday about the Al Qaeda background of the attacker have stunned former agency officials and intelligence experts and raised the possibility of a major security lapse that permitted the bomber access to the base.

“It’s a huge screw-up,” said one former senior CIA official who had worked with some of the CIA officers killed in the attack. “The question is, why did they think they could trust this guy? What was the level of confidence that would allow somebody like this access to a place where there were this many officers?”

Initial reports last week identified the suicide bomber who blew up the CIA team based in Khost, Afghanistan as a member of the Afghan National Army. That appeared to explain how the attacker was able to get inside the base without being closely searched.

But NBC News and other outlets on Monday identified the bomber as a Jordanian physician who was working for Jordanian intelligence while secretly serving as an Al Qaeda double agent. After being arrested by the Jordanians over a year ago, the physician, identified as Human Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi, had reportedly promised Jordanian intelligence and the CIA that he would help U.S. officers find Ayman Al Zawahiri, Al Qaeda’s number two. (Among those killed in last week’s attack was a senior Jordanian intelligence officer who is a cousin of Jordan's King Abdullah.

Al Jazeera’s Arabic language website, citing unidentified sources as well as a Taliban spokesman, added what may be the most surprising wrinkle of all to the story: the Jordanian doctor is the same person known as “Abu Dujanah al-Khurasani”—a frequent contributor to jihadi websites who once served as the administrator for the Al Hesbah Forum, a major Al Qaeda website.

The al Jazeera story quotes the Taliban spokesman as saying that the blogger was able to “mislead U.S. and Jordanian intelligence for a whole year,” adding that the Taliban plans to release a video soon to confirm its account.

There is no way to independently confirm that Balawi and “Abu Dujinah” is the same person. But Evan Kohlmann, a U.S. government consultant who monitors jihadi web forums, said that many of the details emerging about Balawi – including his age and background — seem to match comments that Abu Dujinah has made on various web postings. There "are pretty compelling reasons to believe it's the same person," he said. Kohlmann also noted that, in a lengthy interview he gave to a Taliban magazine known as Vanguard of Khorasan last September, Abu Dujinah “essentially announced he was going to fight jihad in Afghanistan.”

The former CIA official – who requested anonymity because of the ongoing probe into the attack—said that even if some people at the CIA believed that the Jordanian jihadi could lead them to Zawahiri, it was puzzling that he would have had access to a base with multiple officers. “You never trust a person like that,” the former official said.

“This is something that is unprecedented,” said Ali Al-Ahmed, president of the Institute of Gulf Affairs, a Washington think tank that monitors Persian Gulf developments. “This is the first time a terrorist has managed to infiltrate the CIA and carry out an attack.”

The CIA declined to comment on the identity of the attacker of the Khost base.

[arun]

X Posted.

Afghanistan's intelligence service the National Directorate of Security in an article datelined December 29, 2009 says that the September 02, 2009 killing of its deputy head Abdullah Laghmani along with 23 others in a suicide attack is linked to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

The suicide attack was reportedly carried out by a Pakistani national Abdul Jabar and was ordered by two Taliban leaders who live in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, Shahid Khel and Maulawi Kabir.

Deutsche Presse Agentur via Earthtimes:

Pakistani Links to the killing of Afghan Deputy Intelligence Chief

[Malayappan]

With thumbs-up from Afghans, India explores more areas of aid from The Indian Express

...two independent surveys in Afghanistan voting India as the preferred country, ahead of even multilateral agencies like UN and NATO, to carry out reconstruction in the country

[shyamd]

A CIA penetration operation against al Qaeda - which backfired

DEBKAfile Special Report

January 5, 2010, 5:26 PM (GMT+02:00)
Ayman al-Zawahri

Ayman al-Zawahri

US intelligence sources have named the suicide bomber who killed seven CIA agents and a Jordanian intelligence officer at a secret CIA facility in Afghanistan on Dec. 30 as Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi, 36, a Jordanian medical doctor. He had been accepted by the CIA as a double agent and undertaken to find al Qaeda's No. 2, the Egyptian physician, Ayman al-Zawahri, and win his trust before killing him.

Balawi gained access to the Forward Operation Base Chapman in the remote province of Khost by saying he had urgent information about the mission to pass on to the CIA contingent.

His Jordanian victim was Capt. Sharif Ali bin Zeid, a captain in intelligence and cousin of Hashemite king Abdullah, who had been aiding the US covert Afghan/Pakistan effort against al Qaeda and the Taliban.

Those sources report that the suicide killer came from the same Jordanian town of Zarqa as al Qaeda's last Iraq commander, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, whom the Americans killed in 2006. They were good friends. More than a year ago, Balawi was picked up by Jordanian security. He persuaded them he was ready to go over to the Jordanian and American side and infiltrate al Qaeda on their behalf in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Fellow Jordanian Capt. Bin Zeid was to be the controller of the Zawahri mission and signal Balawi when the moment came to kill Osama bin Laden's lieutenant.

DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources note that if this account is accurate, its implications for the war on Islamist terror are dramatic:

1. It represents the US intelligence agency's first success since 9/11 in getting a penetration agent close enough to al Qaeda's high command for an assassination bid.

2. The sparse information released on the case implies that the Americans are now willing to use a suicide killer if necessary to target a high-profile terrorist chief.

3. The extreme usefulness of Jordanian intelligence in the war on jihadist terror is underscored once again. Jordanian agents' success in penetrating Zarqawi's inner circle in Iraq and pinpointing his location was the crucial factor in the US success in liquidating him. The Jordanians appear to be playing a similar role in Afghanistan.

4. However, al Qaeda is a match for the Americans in intelligence savvy. At some point, Bin Laden's men managed to turn the renegade Balawai round again and instruct him to kill his Jordanian controller Capt. Bin Zeid instead of Zawahri.

5. In recent years, the Jordanian-al Qaeda feud was conducted through covert byways. At Base Chapman, it surfaced and the gloves were removed. Bin Laden will no doubt seek bloody revenge for the Hashemite throne's involvement in the plot to assassinate his second-in-command.

[Johann]

- The assistance of Jordanian intelligence was absolutely vital in killing Zarqawi. They have been the Americans greatest Arab ally in combating Al-Qaeda.

- There is going to be long and detailed inquiry as to just why this man was allowed to attend a high-level meeting without being searched.

It is possible that corners are being cut because of pressure from the White House to deliver results against Al Qaeda leadership so that the Afghan mission can be downgraded.

On the other hand, it is not yet clear when he betrayed the Jordanians and Americans to Al Qaeda - it may have come after he had already established a relationship with US and Jordanian intelligence. People can become disoriented when there are so many levels of deception - suddenly hit by shame or guilt, or perhaps he was exposed and offered a way out.

It wont be clear until there is a full investigation

- the astonishing thing is that the USG chose to confirm the nature of the targets in this attack so early on. They could have easily treated this as an attack on special forces, or contractors rather than confirming the nature of very sensitive operations against Al-Qaeda.

I have to wonder once again if this is a political decision intended to maximise publicity for the administration's efforts.

- expect this to become a propaganda coup for Al Qaeda.

- Al Qaeda pioneered tactics are usually copied by Pakistani jihadi groups - this is one that both Pakistani as well as Afghan and Indian intelligence agencies are likely to face.

[pgbhat]

It is possible that corners are being cut because of pressure from the White House to deliver results against Al Qaeda leadership so that the Afghan mission can be downgraded.

Being a mango rakshak let me state what you say is 400% accurate.
How The "Hungry" CIA Let Down Its Guard
In other news source I read (I cannot recollect which), questions were raised as to why an informant was meeting in presence of 5-7 officers when normally 2-3 would be enough to debrief. They limit the number of agents exposed to the informant to maintain OPSEC/PERSEC.

[ramana]

The thing to worry about is safety of Jordanian ruling family. If Al-Q is so easy for Jordanians the reverse could be true also.

[SSridhar]

. . . questions were raised as to why an informant was meeting in presence of 5-7 officers when normally 2-3 would be enough to debrief.

It was not a de-breifing session. It was supposed to be a presentation by al-Balawi. He meticulously planned it to have the biggest impact.

[pgbhat]

^ either way CIA failed to pick up his deception and he got access to large number agents. As you said it was a master stroke by AQ. My mind boggles thinking about the planning involved.
Loss of seven CIA agents in Afghanistan: any lessons learned?

That so many people had gathered to hear him may be an indication of how hungry US intelligence is for hard information about Al Qaeda’s top levels – and how hard that information is to come by.

[pgbhat]

And now we have this from NPR.
NATO Official: US Intel Lacking In Afghanistan

"These analysts are starved for information from the field — so starved, in fact, that many say their jobs feel more like fortune telling than serious detective work," said the report. "It is little wonder then that many decision makers rely more on newspapers than military intelligence to obtain `ground truth.'"

With the impression they are giving they might as well use astrologers.

However, Flynn wrote, U.S. intelligence officials and analysts have spent too much energy focused on enemy activities and are "ignorant of local economics and landowners, hazy about who the power brokers are and how they might be influenced, incurious about the correlations between various development projects ... and disengaged from people in the best position to find answers."

Field intelligence officers should not limit their reports to diagraming insurgent networks, Flynn said. They must also provide information about meetings with villagers and tribal leaders, translated summaries of local radio broadcasts that influence local farmers and field observations of Afghan soldiers and aid workers.

In the report, Flynn orders teams of analysts be assembled to collect information on a myriad of subjects at the grassroots level to replace the current practice of having one analyst study governance, a second look into narcotics trafficking and a third insurgent networks. Unclassified portions of the material will then be made available to the military, donor nations and aid workers.

[Paul]

- Al Qaeda pioneered tactics are usually copied by Pakistani jihadi groups - this is one that both Pakistani as well as Afghan and Indian intelligence agencies are likely to face.

Errr Johann....are you saying that India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are facing a common threat???

[Johann]

Paul,

I'm certainly not going to suggest that India and the Pakistan Army are in this together as allies!

However, regardless of the conflict between India and Pakistan, both pro and anti state jihadis in Pakistan look towards Al-Qaeda for inspiration.

The PA and its friends in JeM and HuM will try to use this in places like Kashmir, or perhaps even Mumbai, while the Pakiban will use it against the PA in places like Rawalpindi and Peshawar.

Take the broader tactic of suicide bombing for example - first adopted by the JeM in 2000 thanks to Al Qaeda, but the tactic has been used far more against the Pakistani authorities than the Indian government!

Why? Simply put the Pakistani state has squandered state authority and influence over its population through reckless misgovernment, while the GoI has conserved these things.

[Johann]

And now we have this from NPR.
NATO Official: US Intel Lacking In Afghanistan

"These analysts are starved for information from the field — so starved, in fact, that many say their jobs feel more like fortune telling than serious detective work," said the report. "It is little wonder then that many decision makers rely more on newspapers than military intelligence to obtain `ground truth.'"

With the impression they are giving they might as well use astrologers.

However, Flynn wrote, U.S. intelligence officials and analysts have spent too much energy focused on enemy activities and are "ignorant of local economics and landowners, hazy about who the power brokers are and how they might be influenced, incurious about the correlations between various development projects ... and disengaged from people in the best position to find answers."

Field intelligence officers should not limit their reports to diagraming insurgent networks, Flynn said. They must also provide information about meetings with villagers and tribal leaders, translated summaries of local radio broadcasts that influence local farmers and field observations of Afghan soldiers and aid workers.

In the report, Flynn orders teams of analysts be assembled to collect information on a myriad of subjects at the grassroots level to replace the current practice of having one analyst study governance, a second look into narcotics trafficking and a third insurgent networks. Unclassified portions of the material will then be made available to the military, donor nations and aid workers.

I wrote the following on December 30th on page 22 of the TSP thread;

The Taliban is winning the intelligence war on the ground in Afghanistan, and has been since 2003.

It is the reason why killing the leadership with UAV strikes is not enough.

Nevertheless, Afghanistan is still Afghanistan. Many commanders are only loyal to the Quetta Shura (and through them aligned with the PA) because they receive arms and equipment from them. The thing that the CIA can do now is arrange for defections by Taliban commanders.

That was done in 2001, which combined with airpower toppled the Taliban. However it was not consolidated with strong grassoots (i.e. village level) intelligence networks in communities throughout the South-East. That left a vacuum that was filled by the Taliban. Their counter-intelligence network is *very* effective, and it makes it very dangerous for anyone to even secretly oppose the Taliban.

Even if there are widescale defections by commanders again the whole bloody cycle will repeat itself unless the Obama administration fills that village level intelligence gap.

I'd like to add to that post for context given the way that the new report is being discussed in the press now. The kind of socio-economic and cultural context to understand the insurgency is not being ignored - the 'Human Terrain System' is meant to address that by attaching social scientists in uniform at the brigade level. In fact if I remember correctly the forum had dwelt a bit on an Indian-American, Michael Vinay Bhatia who died in Afghanistan in 2008 that role, in Khost (yes, the same province). However, there just aren't enough of them to provide fine-grained information to direct operations at the company level, or to oversee and drive all of the non-combat development/hearts & minds operations.

Even in the old colonial British context that is not the kind of information that was gathered either by military intelligence, or by civilian counter-intelligence (i.e. MI-5 or IPI). That was the kind of information that the political officers and district collectors gathered and processed, aided by organisations like the Survey of India, etc. It requires a very different kind of training than hunting down clandestine cells, or monitoring political activity, or assessing military strength.

Of course British institutions are so divorced from their history these days that there's little understanding of this in the political and bureaucratic structures that actually make the key decisions in running the war. In many ways the Americans are the ones who have far more living experience as to how you go in to a place that is new to you and start from scratch.

[pgbhat]

Confusion grows over how bomber infiltrated CIA base in Afghanistan
This looks like sheer incompetence, desperation and an inside job all rolled into one big **** up.

The Jordanian double agent had never been to the base before the attack that killed seven CIA employees waiting to receive hot tips on Al Qaeda.

The absence of any previous encounter adds to the confusion over how the attacker -- posing as an informant with valuable information on Al Qaeda -- was able to make it past security with a bomb apparently strapped to his body and lure seasoned CIA operatives to their deaths last week.

CIA veterans who served in the region say they are baffled by the security breach. When meeting informants, particularly those with ties to terrorist groups, "the first thing you do is have two security guys search him," a former high-ranking CIA officer said. "It's one of the basic building blocks" of espionage.

[pgbhat]

Double agent: Humam Khalil Abu Mulal al-Balawi (AFP: Khalil Mazraawi)

SOURCE

[pgbhat]

x-posting from Af-Pak ---> Pak-Af watch
Instability awaits Kabul ---- Vikram Sood

The coalition failure in Helmand has been interpreted by most Afghans as victory for the Taliban and also drew more recruits to the Taliban. It is impossible to distinguish them from ordinary villagers and it would be a mistake to conclude that they are resented by the Pushtun population. Coalition forces have remained far too inadequate and ill motivated to allow for an effective clear and hold policy.

It is difficult to predict if and when the US will change its decades old policy of pardoning Pakistan all its transgressions. What we need to take into account is that one of these days the US will carry out its much vaunted but ridiculously inadequate much delayed surge, declare mission accomplished and thin out. Its longterm policies are dictated by election year compulsions. Once the coalition forces begin to pull out a few things will inevitably happen as other interests try to fill the empty spaces.

Pakistan will naturally assume that its moment has come again and it could now acquire its much dreamt of strategic depth, throw the Indians out and be the overlord in Afghanistan. The Iranians are unlikely to remain idle spectators as a Sunni Wahabbi neighbour is going to be an unsettling factor for them.

The Chinese have already begun to move in with their commercial and resource interests into Afghanistan as they would see an opportunity to move closer to the Persian Gulf, given their steady relations with the Iranians.

They also need to keep the Islamist extremists away from sensitive areas like Xinjiang. The Central Asian Republics and Russia have their concerns about the dangers of Talibanised ideology spreading into their countries. Finally, the absence of a strong centralised authority will only create more confusion in a country that has been run on drug money and foreign doles.

India
Pakistan’s exultation may be temporary.
Unable to control its own territory it is unlikely to be able to run Afghanistan in the way it may want to. It does not have the resources to do so and the US will not sub lease Afghanistan to Pakistan this time.

The other very real danger is that the Pushtuns on both sides of the Durand Line, joined together in a common fight for decades, may well ask if they fought all these years only to end up being minorities in both countries. The departure of the Coalition Forces will only add to the instability of the region and India needs to prepare itself for this eventuality.

There have been subtle suggestions made in recent months that are designed to create illusions of grandeur in us. These suggest that as a power rising towards its destiny as a major power, we should be playing a more active role in our neighbourhood, especially in Afghanistan.

Some have suggested that we could send in a brigade as a token. This is dangerous talk. The cost of maintaining a brigade is enormous and could be as high as Rs one crore a day. Add to this the logistics, air support, artillery cover, not to mention the other vital aspect, intelligence cover. Surely this intelligence would not come from the Taliban. Others suggest that we should have no problem in equipping, stationing and supplying several divisions of troops in Afghanistan. In a series of articles in this newspaper in January 2009, Manoj Joshi had cited reports of the Comptroller and Auditor General to show how inadequately equipped our forces were. The situation could not have altered dramatically since then.

It is true that there is goodwill for India in Afghanistan for our contribution to its infrastructure. This will dissipate rapidly once we are seen as an occupation force. It will not be difficult to create this impression particularly as we have no means of influencing opinion in Afghanistan, there being no media presence of our own there. Instead, we should follow the Chinese model, of gaining influence in Afghanistan without firing a single shot or losing a soldier. We need not make our policies Pakistanspecific all the time.
Role

We should look for a role in the region beyond the current troubles but we need not prove this by sending in our troops hoping to succeed where others have failed. We may develop a two- front war strategy but we are hardly capable of fighting a three front war.
We should be prepared to train Afghans in India, in whatever discipline and numbers they want this. We should offer additional infrastructure building, taking care to match this with the Afghan capacity to absorb.

We need to ask Afghans what they want and not decide ourselves what we want to give. We need to co- ordinate with Iran, Russia and Central Asia in our endeavours. Post US, there has to be a regional agreement ensuring peace and neutrality in Afghanistan.

[Rudradev]

-
- the astonishing thing is that the USG chose to confirm the nature of the targets in this attack so early on. They could have easily treated this as an attack on special forces, or contractors rather than confirming the nature of very sensitive operations against Al-Qaeda.

I have to wonder once again if this is a political decision intended to maximise publicity for the administration's efforts.

- expect this to become a propaganda coup for Al Qaeda.

I agree, this is indeed perhaps the most astonishing aspect... the cack-handed media management of the aftermath by the Americans. They could easily have hushed up the nature of the targets as well as the potentially embarrassing details of how Al Qaeda were able to run a triple-agent successfully against them. They've handed Al Qaeda a propaganda victory by confirming and publicizing these things... which, however, seems to suggest that this is not a political decision, because it's hardly the type of publicity that the Obama administration would welcome.

Indeed, I wonder if this information has been deliberately leaked by a camp in the CIA chafing against the ROE being dictated by the Obama administration, in order to embarrass the President. If you listen to Obama's public pronouncements where he hectors his officials about "intelligence failure", even though he is ostensibly referring to the Nigerian underwear-bomber, there is a suggestion of bad blood between the White House and the Intelligence community. Maybe the "failure" Obama is really cheesed off about is the unauthorized revelation of the target in Khost and the triple-agent duping that made it possible.

On another note:

What I am seeing these days in the US media is a conscious effort to focus public attention regarding the "War on Terror" away from Af-Pak and towards the Western ME, specifically Yemen (where the Nigerian underwear-bomber was apparently trained and equipped). Also the emphasis on the Khost bomber's Jordanian nationality has shifted the focus there towards Jordanian Al-Qaeda and away from the ISI (who must certainly have played a role, along with the Haqqanis, in that operation).

All this suggests that the Obama administration has decided to cut and run from Afghanistan... in line with Stephen Cohen's recommendation that the US has no long-term strategic interest in South Asia other than stepping in to "prevent a nuclear war every four or five years". Meanwhile, Yemen will be chosen as the new theatre of military operations against Al Qaeda (for Obama to demonstrate that he is "serious about the war on terrorism"). Yemen is an easier war for the US to win, given the cooperation of the Saudis who have already mobilized there, and the freedom from dependence on the duplicitous TSPA/ISI who have stymied Western efforts in the Afghan war for nearly a decade.

The American right has already been lobbying for the US to look away from Afghanistan and towards the more "winnable" Yemen: see the following quotes from Ralph Peters' Op Ed in the New York Post.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/op ... jE0oaYch2K

And that "global" aspect is especially worrying. Despite limited Special Operations strikes beyond our recognized combat zones, we still don't accept the nature of the threat from jet-set jihadis. Our leaders and our military are obsessed with holding ground in Afghanistan -- even though al Qaeda's growth areas are in Yemen and Africa.

Also from that article, an argument against "nation-building" or investment in Afghan development:

We voluntarily tie ourselves down, while our enemies focus on mobility. Worse, we've convinced ourselves that development aid (the left's all-purpose medicine) is the key to defeating al Qaeda.

That's utter nonsense. Abdulmutallab's a rich kid. He didn't come from a deprived background, bearing the grievances of the slum. He's a graduate of a top English university. And Osama bin Laden's from a super-rich family. How does building a footbridge in Afghanistan deter them?

A shift of focus to Yemen, and away from AfPak, would please many. The US would feel a lot more comfortable fighting there, with the Saudis genuinely interested in fighting on their side and taking casualties (as opposed to the TSPA/ISI's tamashas in NWFP/FATA). NATO, likewise, is getting tired of Afghanistan. The Pakistani lobby in Washington, and all its friends, would be thrilled at having the heat taken off Slumbad... and delighted at the potential opportunity to have the "management" of Afghanistan outsourced to the TSPA/ISI and its "Good Taliban" proxies. Obama would have a theatre where he could conceivably win a decisive victory without having to nuke Pakistan. The Joe Biden/ Jim "Kool Aid" Jones clique who have always been arguing for a withdrawal from AfPak would be very happy.

Here's my prediction. The Obama administration has already been asking for the PRC to play a "greater role" in Afghanistan. This is a signal that the US and NATO will pull away from AfPak, relying on Beijing's influence over TSPA/ISI as a guarantor that a pro-Paki government in Kabul will prevent Afghanistan from being used as a base for terrorism against Western interests. In exchange the PRC will receive guarantees about its sphere of influence in Asia (no longer challenged by a US/NATO presence on its western flank) and will have a free hand to police its security interests in Xinjiang by establishing a stronger military and intelligence presence in AfPak.

The Americans will deploy to Yemen and have a smashing Gulf-War style victory against "Al Qaeda" there, with the Saudis/Omanis etc. supporting them, just in time to get Obama re-elected in 2012. European nations will be able to bring their soldiers home. Iran's adventurism in Yemen (and by extension the greater ME) will be stymied. The Chinese will be kept happy by granting them the overlordship of AfPak, in exchange for keeping out of any brewing conflagrations between the West and Iran.

India, meanwhile, will continue to face all the terrorism that the TSPA/ISI (with its recovered strategic depth in Chinese-dominated AfPak) chooses to throw at us. No loss to the US, NATO or Beijing.

[sum]

India, meanwhile, will continue to face all the terrorism that the TSPA/ISI (with its recovered strategic depth in Chinese-dominated AfPak) chooses to throw at us. No loss to the US, NATO or Beijing.

So, its the Chankian Indians who will end up loser ( like all through the 90s)?

However, if Unkil goes, doesn't it stop TSPA money flow which would virtually turn Pak insolvent?

[ShauryaT]

Here's my prediction. The Obama administration has already been asking for the PRC to play a "greater role" in Afghanistan. This is a signal that the US and NATO will pull away from AfPak, relying on Beijing's influence over TSPA/ISI as a guarantor that a pro-Paki government in Kabul will prevent Afghanistan from being used as a base for terrorism against Western interests. In exchange the PRC will receive guarantees about its sphere of influence in Asia (no longer challenged by a US/NATO presence on its western flank) and will have a free hand to police its security interests in Xinjiang by establishing a stronger military and intelligence presence in AfPak.

The Americans will deploy to Yemen and have a smashing Gulf-War style victory against "Al Qaeda" there, with the Saudis/Omanis etc. supporting them, just in time to get Obama re-elected in 2012. European nations will be able to bring their soldiers home. Iran's adventurism in Yemen (and by extension the greater ME) will be stymied. The Chinese will be kept happy by granting them the overlordship of AfPak, in exchange for keeping out of any brewing conflagrations between the West and Iran.

India, meanwhile, will continue to face all the terrorism that the TSPA/ISI (with its recovered strategic depth in Chinese-dominated AfPak) chooses to throw at us. No loss to the US, NATO or Beijing.

I agree, it will be some form of withdrawal. The replacement scenario above is one possibility, among others that may play out. There is only one power that can intervene in all of this to upset the apple cart of TSP/PRC, but she is busy with "other" priorities!

[pgbhat]

Clusterf*ck==Afghanistan
COIN in Afghanistan Presentation ---- PDF (on MSNBC)
On Slideshare

[Johann]

Re. Yemen

Al Qaeda has shifted some of its operational planning for attacks on the West to Yemen from Pakistan-Afghanistan because of the sheer volume of pressure from the Americans through UAVs, penetration, etc.

Its not sustainable however. Yemen isn't anywhere as large or remote Afghanistan+FATA+Pakistan.

Bin Laden in 1996 had considered Yemen, when he was forced out of Sudan but turned it down as a poor second to Afghanistan. Its simply too close to KSA and Oman, and too close to the sea.

Rather, what we will see as attention shifts to Yemen is a diffusion of anti-western operations to Somalia and Af-Pak.

Somalia has a much larger refugee diaspora in both the US and the EU, and has even less of a central government than Yemen. Its also got an even larger jihadi movement than Yemen. This includes men of Somali descent who have returned to Somalia for jihadi training and combat, as well as non-Somalis. There are several Americans who have become infamous for their videos - such as Robert Shumpert, and Omar Hammami. It also just so happens that the UK has the largest Somali population in Europe as a result of the refugee wave of the 1990s.

Al Qaeda *loves* failed states because the weakness of political authority and social fragmentation creates the space they need to operate freely. States and societies emerging from totalitarian rule, and states with long term civil wars are particularly vulnerable. Iraq had a window between the fall of Saddam, and the emergence of a new political order. Somalia on the other hand has been in its current state for almost 20 years, and has no real prospect of seeing a strong non-Islamist state emerging, much like Afghanistan. Next in line is Yemen and Pakistan.

No matter what anyone in the Obama administration may hope for, the failed states of Afghanistan and Pakistan will continue to be attractive operating bases for Al Qaeda, in addition to Somalia and Yemen. The real question will be how America will be able to suppress and contain Al Qaeda across all these theatres without overstretch. Bin Laden made it clear back in the 1990s that he had embraced a guerrilla philosophy, where victory was not based on what Al Qaeda could do, but by driving the Americans to exhaust themselves and alienate as many people as possible.

[Philip]

Osama and Al Q are the 21st century's equivalent of the new Mahdi,with willing recruits arriving each day thanks to the global media's spread of the US and west's wars in the Gulf and AF-Pak.What is most worrisome is that Al Q has the ability to insert its "triple agents" into the intel agencies of the west,which has hardly any worthwhile "humint" whatsoever in the Islamic street.The UN's scathing report that the US is losing the war,adopting the wrong tactics,ignoring the civilian needs in favour of military operations,indicates that it is going to be a long time before the US (if ever) gets a grip on the Af-Pak situ and many more deaths of US/NATO troops and nationals can be expected.The momentum is with the Taliban and AlQ,both in Afghanistan and Pakistan,with the attacks spreading to hitherto unaffected karachi.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... =12&page=2

Eager young recruit, a father to be and man in charge among CIA dead

Giles Whittell in Washington and Jerome Starkey in Kabul

Scott Roberson, an avid fan of Benny Hill and a biker, was a CIA security officer

One was the station chief, a mother of three with an encyclopaedic knowledge of al-Qaeda’s leadership gained in the course of eight years as one of the CIA’s top specialists in the field.

Another, also a woman, wrote a college thesis on religion and economics and accepted her Afghan assignment even though her father begged her not to go. She would have been 31 next month.

Two were male staffers: a “soft-spoken patriot” from Boston whose friends had learnt not to ask precisely what he did, and a former narcotics detective from Georgia who loved motorcycles and was expecting his first child.

Two more, a former Navy Seal and an army reservist, were security specialists from the firm formerly known as Blackwater Worldwide.

Related Links
CIA attack was 'revenge for al-Qaeda deaths'
Intelligence chief: US spies are 'clueless'

Yet, of the Americans who died last week in the suicide bombing at the CIA’s most sensitive outpost in Afghanistan, it is the seventh whose presence has raised the most urgent questions as the US scrambles to repair — and avenge — the damage done to the hunt for Osama bin Laden.

According to a security official in Kabul with close ties to the CIA, when Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi carried out his deadly mission at Forward Operating Base Chapman, he managed to kill the agency’s deputy head of station for the whole of Afghanistan.

The senior agent was waiting at the base near Khost to meet al-Balawi, debrief him on the whereabouts of Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden’s deputy, and convey his findings directly to the White House.

“They were expecting the meeting to be of such substance that following the meeting their next directive was to call President Obama,” the official told The Times.

“There was meant to be a direct call to Washington.”

When the call to Washington was eventually made, its purpose was to report the worst CIA casualties in a single day since 1983. Instead of ordering an airstrike on al-Qaeda’s second-in-command, Mr Obama found himself writing a sombre letter to the agency, hailing the work of seven spies who had “served in the shadows”, their sacrifices unknown even to their families.

Each death will be marked by an anonymous star on the CIA’s Memorial Wall at its Virginia headquarters.

The agency has confirmed none of the victims’ names but details of their lives and final moments have trickled out in local obituaries and online postings.

The younger woman killed in the blast was Elizabeth Hanson, described by her family on her Facebook page as effervescent and vibrant, and by her former college professor as memorable for her intellectual curiosity.

Her thesis, entitled Faithless Heathens: Scriptural Economics of Judaism, Christianity and Islam, gave a hint of where her interests might lead but her father has said since her death that he knew little about her work.

At least three of the dead were on the base to keep it secure. Scott Roberson, an avid fan of Benny Hill and a biker who rode out with the “Iron Pigs” when at home in Georgia, was a CIA security officer.

Jeremy Wise, from Virginia, and Dane Clark Paresi, from Oregon, were contract guards from Xe Services, formerly Blackwater, for most of the past decade the CIA’s preferred security contractor.

Since the attack, Mr Paresi’s widow has been told by colleagues of her husband that he had doubts about al-Balawi, a Jordanian double agent, from the moment he entered the base without being searched.

Mr Paresi, a former army master sergeant, approached the bomber before he blew himself up, MindyLou Paresi told her local newspaper.

“He saved many people; unfortunately seven of them did die [but] it could have been worse,” she said.

The account tallies with reports that security personnel ran towards the bomber telling him to take his hand out of his pocket moments before the blast.

Al-Balawi’s widow, a journalist based in Istanbul, said yesterday that she was proud of her late husband for carrying out “a very important mission”.

Al-Qaeda has since claimed that the bomber stated in his will that the attack was intended as revenge for recent US drone strikes on militants in Pakistan.

It has dealt a crippling blow to US intelligence. Much of the victims’ accumulated knowledge was stored in their heads and nowhere else.

One source told The New York Times. “Lots of it is irrecoverable.”

[chanakyaa]

However, if Unkil goes, doesn't it stop TSPA money flow which would virtually turn Pak insolvent?

Gr8 point. Why would unkil stop paying TSPA? TSPA will end up like Palestine. Forever dependent on the west for aid, and west (unkil) is more than happy to provide assistance. It helps them kill 2 birds with one stone.

1. Keep TSP dependent under the premise that unstable TSP is greater threat to the world piece, and automatically create a long lasting pain for India. B'cas TSP on life support means continued nuance for India through terrorism, and
2. Unkil loves to print fiat currency and loves to see that it stays as a universal world currency for next 200 years...

It is another way unkil taxes countries like India, called "terrorism tax" which developing countries end up paying through its nose, which otherwise could be used to improve infra and lives of its citizens. I like this kind of taxation better than the good old colonial direct taxation..

[ramana]

One thing is clear AlQ needs doctors. And they have preference for that trade.

One thing drone attacks could mean its the bad Taliban, that is ISI contolled ones, also that benefit from this attack. So was their chemical analysis of residue? And what does it show?

[pgbhat]

This 1997 photo released Thursday, Jan. 7, 2010, by Keith Country Day School shows Elizabeth Hanson. Hanson is one of the seven CIA employees killed in a suicide bombing at a remote base near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Hanson, 30, along with the other CIA employees died Dec. 30 in Khost after a suicide bomber detonated an explosive device.

In this undated photo provided by Amy Messner, Scott Michael Roberson is seen. Roberson, 39, was working as a security officer for the CIA when the blast on Dec. 30, 2009 rocked the remote outpost in Khost province in Afghanistan, said his sister, Amy Messner of Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio.

CIA allowing release of identities. As some one pointed out, they might be pi$$ed at someone in government.

[JE Menon]

Expect that in the coming months some senior Pakisatans will pay a very heavy personal price. The Americans know how to wreak vengeance.

[sanjaykumar]

Even when I was a boy scout you needed a password to get into the den.

This casts an extremely negative light on the CIA.

It was not only a counterintelligence failure but a protocol fiasco. perhaps someone was too eager to make that phone call to the US president.


Pakistanis won't pay-they will smirk and America will continue to look the other way.

[Rudradev]

India, meanwhile, will continue to face all the terrorism that the TSPA/ISI (with its recovered strategic depth in Chinese-dominated AfPak) chooses to throw at us. No loss to the US, NATO or Beijing.

So, its the Chankian Indians who will end up loser ( like all through the 90s)?

However, if Unkil goes, doesn't it stop TSPA money flow which would virtually turn Pak insolvent?

Never underestimate the willingness of Unkil to throw money at an intractable problem

Today Unkil pumps billions into TSPA and ISI even though his soldiers, CIA agents etc. are getting killed as a direct result of their actions. He won't hesitate to pump as much, or even more to finance the outsourced management of Afghanistan once his troops are out of harm's way. That may in fact be part of the deal being brokered with TSP-PRC.

Also, I don't think Unkil will be 100% "gone" from TSP... the drone strikes will probably continue, heavy intel presence will persist, and of course those SF detachments deputed to guard the Paki nuclear arsenal under the deal exposed by Seymour Hersh last year will remain in place. All that will continue to be paid for.

[Johann]

Expect that in the coming months some senior Pakisatans will pay a very heavy personal price. The Americans know how to wreak vengeance.

I wonder.

Imad Mughniyah, the man who orchestrated the execution of the deadliest attack on the CIA only died 25 years after the suicide bombing of the Beirut Embassy in April 1983. The Americans can at very best only claim partial credit for that.

The people who actually ordered the attacks in Tehran have never faced any sort of personal retribution for that attack, nor have the people in Damascus who facilitated and signed off on it.

How many people in the ISI have paid for previous attacks on US intelligence personnel in Pakistan?

[putnanja]

Well, then the US needs to take a lesson or two from the french then