Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Airavat · Post by **Airavat** » 24 May 2009 07:32

Putting the POK question in perspective: in 1947 the then global power, Britain, connived in the Pakistani occupation of western Jammu and Gilgit-Baltistan. British commanders of the Indian Army, Lockhart and Bucher, prevented the Indian commanders on the ground from recovering these regions completely. There was also lack of political will in carrying out military operations, particularly in western Jammu, because the people were non-kashmiris and did not support Sheikh Abdullah, the Kashmir-based politician and that #!&$ Nehru's dear friend.

Has this situation changed?

Are the Kashmir-based parties, and their friends in Delhi, really interested in recovering western Jammu; as for Gilgit-Baltistan they hardly even talk about it! Once these regions are recovered and integrated in J&K, the domination of the Kashmir-based parties will go for a six. As it is, following the Amarnath agitation, Jammu is beginning to challenge their domination.

Political will in New Delhi for covert operations is one thing, but for military intervention, is quite another. Despite the legal status of POK and the parliamentary resolution on its recovery, Indian polity will not permit use of overt military force unless there are people's movements in those regions. At this point there is unrest in both western Jammu and Gilgit-Baltistan.....Indian has to invest political, diplomatic, and financial capital to build up these movements.

The POK nut cannot be cracked unless the Pakistani nut is cracked. Fortunately the latter is happening on its own, slowly but surely.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 08:03

raji wrote:

Ok, I will take your word for it.

Out of respect for your opinion and wishes, let me replace everywhere, the word POK with the phrase "Corridor to CAR via Northern Areas" and lets just focus on retaking that. Lets let the talk of taking over all of POK aside, unless taking it is tactically essential to retaking the "Corridor to CAR via Northern Areas"

I hope this is more palatable to you and I look forward very much getting your scenarios and what is necessary to accomplish this along with Samuel's and others.

POK is a vast stretch of land and inhospitable terrain abounds it, some in the High Altitude (HAA) realm.

If one go into the Wars fought so far, it will be observed that while we could capture huge swathes of territory in the deserts (notwithstanding the problem of water), we have made marginal gains in Kashmir.

The reason is not that the troops in the desert area were better. The reason is that in the desert movement is easier and faster than in the mountains and the HAA.

In POK and Northern Area, the ridges run parallel to the LC in successive lines. Therefore, each ridge has to be taken and at the same time, each ridge has to be held. It will take colossal amount of troops and much time (by that time the international comity will intervene and stop the war as they have done every time). Hence, capture of the whole of POK is difficult.

There is a military adage - Mountains eat up troops! It means that with each objective captured, there is still another height that dominates you and you have to capture that higher ridge/ mountain top to last out on the mountain top that you captured.

Take the example of Kargil. It took two Division to oust the infiltrators. A 12:1 ratio is required. Further, in areas like Kargil, the mountains are barren. Hence, all movements can be spotted and action taken. Therefore, perforce movement has to be at night and attacks launched in darkness. By the time the attacking troops reach the top, it is daylight and hence the troops are caught in the open and perforce have to go in hell for leather and hence the larger amount of casualties. Now superimpose this for each ridge that has to be captured all the way upto Skardu or Muzaffarabad.

In so far as the Corridor through POK is concerned, let me use another example. West Pakistan required a corridor to East Pakistan to sustain each other. Did India allow the same?

As far as the KKH, which is 91.3 km from the Siachen Glacier area, is concerned, on the map appears to be a stone's throw away in the same way as Skardu appears to be from Kaksar. In actuality, it is not that close and the terrain is glaciated and it is in the HAA. The temperature drops routinely to 45 degrees C below zero, and the wind chill factor makes the temperature dip further with increase in wind velocity. The weather is fickle and can change without notice. How long and how many Divisions would it take to capture this swathe given the terrain and climate? And from where would the IA find so many troops for the task. It is also pertinent that one has to hold the area after capturing. Kargil was being defended by an Independent Brigade and now it has a Division plus!

Here are some details of terrain in the Siachen for comparison.

The Base Camp for Indian forces is 12,000 feet above sea level. The altitude of some Indian forward bases on the Saltoro Ridge ranges from Kumar (16,000 feet) and Bila Top (18,600 feet) to Pahalwan (20,000 feet) and Indira Col (22,000 feet). Because of the steep gradient of the Saltoro Range, the area is also prone to avalanches.

The interesting fact is that Kerosene Oil required for heating and drying purpose constitutes about 40% of the tonnage lifted. Kerosene freezes at -50 C.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 24 May 2009 08:11

I dont know if this was posted here goes ...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8065253.stm

The outgoing Foreign Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, becomes finance minister, charged with steering India through the economic downturn.

SM Krishna, the former chief minister of Karnataka state, becomes foreign minister, at a time of heightened tensions with Pakistan.

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 24 May 2009 08:54

The 100 odd kilometers between corresponding points; to KKH and Skardu are HUGE distances. That is a significant length in any well defended area, let alone such high altitudes.

The situation, where TSP disintegrates and there is a cake walk (relatively) to accomplishing a return of PoK, is in my view, not realistic. As long as the US exists in this neighborhood (and some seem to think it won't go now), TSP survives. If TSP survives, Taliban move into PoK with full support. If US leaves, Taliban win and move in with or without TSP support. In either case, it is only a matter of time before we will have a problem at our door step (at a much greater magnitude than the one we have now).

Now the more these logistical connections firm up with China, the worse this gets. It is a matter of a hours not weeks for supply chains to make an impact. And if China wishes to use this, whether or not it is TSP or Taliban, it can.

There is a reason they say "it cannot be ignored."

Add to that, the fact that we do not seem to have made any substantial dents in the PoK or NA in turning the people to a more aggressive stance. But, I don't know that for a fact.

So, as I asked earlier, our best bet is to wait for things to work themselves out, even as we can't ignore them?

If we assume there is a will in the nation to bring the corridor back to the fold, how would we do it? Then, once that seems at hand, how do we go about creating will?

S

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 10:06

Raji,

Let us take the situation that we would like to occupy upto KKH and clear that part any threat.

I don't know if this link will open, but this will indicate the number of mountain tops that have to be occupied even if there is no enemy since the flanks of the advance will have to be secured lest Pakistan attacks from the West and the Chinese from the East.

Now, extrapolate the same for POK.

That should give the answer.

I hope I have been able to answer your query.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 24 May 2009 10:09

samuel wrote:If we assume there is a will in the nation to bring the corridor back to the fold, how would we do it? Then, once that seems at hand, how do we go about creating will?

From RayC ji's post above, it appears that there is a section within the army (either serving or retired) which feels that its not possible to retake POK as it is 'inaccessible mountain terrain'.Of course the pakis dont think in the same way going by their n number of attempts to take our land and the chinese also dont think that way going by their construction of roads in this very same 'inaccessible terrain' for military movement . I am not trying to belittle anyone and i am certainly aware of the military challenges of taking back POK.But i am little worried about this attitude within a section of serving or retired army personnel who simply dont have any strategy with respect of POK and blame everything on 'inaccessible terrain'. It reminds me of nehru's ' not a blade of grass grows there' comment on Aksai Chin to cover up his incompetence. We always blame the political leadership for not responding to pakistan's terrorism.Have we ever thought for a moment whether the military leadership is giving any worth while military options to the politicians to consider in the first place ? If 'inaccessible terrain' is the reason why we cannot take back POK, then are we not suppossed to think about strategies to over come this terrain problem and acheive our objective of reuniting the POK with the Indian mainland ?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 May 2009 10:16

ramana wrote:OK folks what are the non-warlike measures along with partial war measures to achieve the strategic objective of no more TSP as a nation state. I think we have to quit beating round the bush and come to brass tacks.

One big factor will be a stabilized and strong Afghanistan as such an entity will seek to erase the Durand line. Now there are two ways to ensure a stable Afghanistan: one is to strenghten Karzai type of forces and the other is to strenghten Taliban. We need an Indian solution to AfPak to prevent it from a spoonerism. Please debate the merits of these two options along with adverse consequences and steps to hedge against them. Once this approach is settled all others fall into place.

That is why I posted this a page ago.

If Reagan and company had sat around thinking Soviet Union cannot and should not be erased due to nuke factor etc., we still would have the Cold war going on. The biggest mistake is to ask implementors to decide on policy. You will find a hazar reasons why its bad idea. Instead turn it around and ask how will you implement this policy.

To modify Cicero's famous quote "Delando est Pakistan!" How do we get there?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2009 10:21

brihaspati wrote: I would rather look at the social origins of these controllers, and some consistent patterns emerge. Be it in political parties all over the spectrum to media or else, they are most likely to have been brought up in exclusive social groups, clans, families with exceptional insistence on superiority by birth. These individuals are taught and believe, that they are somehow by birth superior to the majority of the "commons" in their birth society, and that they deserve power. Because of their disjunction from their birth society they psychologically denigrate or hate the practices or faiths of these "commons", realizing at the same time that they cannot obtain their main desire, "power", without these very same "commons". So it is important for them, to prevent the "commons" from getting united on their own, on the basis of ideas and concepts easily accessible to the "commons". It is an overwhelming fear and sense of vulnerability that drives overwhelming desire to obtain "command" and "total control".

If you think of this line, perhaps, you can see, that the problems are likely to intensify within the "dominant" groups, and the "educated" ones. These controllers can be bypassed, but that is the language of mass movements from scratch and mass organizations. A "leftist" technique driven by "rightist" ideology and principles.

Brihaspati, if you dissect deeper into your line of thought - you will find that the problem is more deep rooted than appears at the surface. In fact I suspect that all of us are products of that very system, and have all helped (or are still helping) to perpetuate the system in ways that we do not realise.

You have written

exclusive social groups, clans, families with exceptional insistence on superiority by birth. These individuals are taught and believe, that they are somehow by birth superior to the majority of the "commons" in their birth society, and that they deserve power.

In fact the truth is these groups are actually superior by birth. I don't mean this in an esoteric "I was born from head and you from foot" Manu-esque sense.

For example - you have family in which both father and mother are literate. Their children are literate from childhood and will be literate even without school. School and college only add value to their "superiority". Who takes the trouble of setting up those schools and colleges? It is someone from this group. And who gets into those schools and colleges - again it is someone from this group. the group is self sustaining and self perpetuating. So this group of "controllers" forms an independent "island".

It is not even necessary for this group to actually think or behave in the way you have described:

they psychologically denigrate or hate the practices or faiths of these "commons", realizing at the same time that they cannot obtain their main desire, "power", without these very same "commons".

The power goes along with the status. They don't even have to try to keep the "commons" down - the commons are a separate pool who cannot wrest knowledge and power from this group. The commons are born of fathers and mothers who are illiterate. Getting the literacy required for survival and to thrive is impossible. There is no way they can break into the system. They form a pool in which the Island of controllers sits.

"Reservation" and "free education" have made some dents in this system, but the system that supports the "Island of controllers" is far from open and democratic. It is a "patronage system" that stems from its origins from (using your words) "exclusive social groups, clans, families". The patronage system ensures that when push comes to shove, children from within the system are more likely to get into the "educated and empowered" pool than anyone else.

Unfortunately I see traditional Indic values as helping to perpetuate the system in terms of "family comes before society" and "respect for elders"(and in turn getting out of turn favors from those elders) as being impediments to a fairer system.

It is easy to list "blatant" examples of this. Apart from the Nehru Gandhi dynasty, we have the Scindia dynasty, the Pilot dynasty, and the Karunanidhi dynasty that are all dependent on "Family comes before society" and "respect for elders". But the same thing operates down at ground level. The last seats in college will go to some "relative of a friend" from the controllers Island and not to someone from the commons pool.

I strongly believe that we will have have a serious and objective re-look at what are called "Indic values" before we cam make progress. But all of us come from the controllers root and are loath to give up the powers that easily. In reality we do not have to "give up" any powers. We only need to empower the commons. But that will mean cutting down on the rot in the system that comes from patronage and clan connections. Unfortunately this dilutes the powers of some clans and will be resisted. Vicious circle.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 24 May 2009 10:23

ramana wrote:If Reagan and company had sat around thinking Soviet Union cannot and should not be erased due to nuke factor etc., we still would have the Cold war going on. The biggest mistake is to ask implementors to decide on policy. You will find a hazar reasons why its a bad idea. Instead turn it around and ask how will you implement this policy.

To modify Cicero's famous quote "Delando est Pakistan!" How do we get there?

Bang on the spot Ramanagaru .

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 10:33

It is not that there is a lack of will in the military. It is just an issue of lack of resources. If there were adequate resources made available, then POK would have been captured long ago. Since there is not adequate resources available, the Army is doing the next best thing. With each war, we are inching forward. Salami tactics if you wish given the lack of the resources. Therefore, it would be incorrect to feel that there is a lack of will amongst the Army. The Army can function based on how the Nation organises as also kits it.

If one observes the photo in the link that I have given, one would realise how many Divisions would be required. Do we have them? Can we pull out the Divisions from the East and leave the East bare? As it is, the Chinese are making belligerent noise over Arunachal and so the question of pulling out Division is not feasible.

Can we raise more Division and kit them appropriately in all its Arms and Service and the weapon systems?

Is POK the only cause of concern for India?

How does one not address the desire to dominate the Indian Ocean. To dominate will require flotillas and not the few ships that we have right now. Should we not have them? Yes. But do we have the money?

The air force has to be strengthened to complement the land and sea warfare. How many squadrons would be required? We can have as many squadrons as we want, but do we have the money?

What about the DRDO projects which requires massive funding? They have to also continue.

And just because one has to reinforce the military, can one neglect the pressing need of the common citizens of the Nation? They require a better infrastructure, given electricity, clean water, better health care, better education, eliminate poverty and so on and so forth. So, where will the money come from?

Has India that type of money?

If so, then surely we can do everything that one desires out here.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2009 10:42

RAYC - there is no link to any photo in your post or have I missed the link in some earlier post.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 24 May 2009 10:43

samuel wrote:
If we assume there is a will in the nation to bring the corridor back to the fold, how would we do it? Then, once that seems at hand, how do we go about creating will?

S

Samuel: Indian action in Afghanistan and friendly help to the Pashtuns will go a long way towards an answer for "how would we do it"? As for will, it already exists in some parts. Leaders of the BJP are on record that they would like some Indian action with regards to the Durand line. The other parts of Indian polity will come around, if the BJP had pushed for it - only if they had power!

The wakhan is no "corridor" to the CAR, it was always meant to be a buffer. Many a graveyard still exist of folks, who have tried the Wakhan as a corridor. Chitral, has been the access road to the land of the Tajiks and beyond.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 10:49

shiv wrote:RAYC - there is no link to any photo in your post or have I missed the link in some earlier post.

I have just embedded it as per your instructions how to do so.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 10:52

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 24 May 2009 11:01

Nice pic of the Glacier. Also a good perspective from Ray ji from a purely military POV. The fact is that we HAVE to take that stretch and more. We must develop the military and political will and capability to do so. We may achieve this by working towards a breakup of Pakistan, working towards denuking Pakistan, working towards that by making it very costly for Paki's to maintain these areas. But DO we MUST. It did not require Pakistan 4 divisions to take this entire area and maintain it. It required holding on to a few fronts. Brig Hoshiar Singh was convinced he could hold Sela against a division of Chinese soldiers and was ordered down by Nehru and Gen BM Kaul. The good Brig almost defied them. He told them you're comitting suicide. I and a handful of men can hold a division. Sela was in his words an 'Infantry mans' dream position to hold to.

If Pakis can control and hold this and Chinese too can such areas, India can too.

I doubt any strategist would want to climb every peak and hold it. Even in Kargil there was a very strong opinion in the Army to take over Skardu and cut of the main supply lines. Because we/ the army were not allowed to cross the LOC, peaks had to be taken individually at some cost and tremendous hardship. If we are strategizing to take over POK, NAs then we have to not only look at the military angle, but also at developing the political will to do so and back it up in the future.

If the costs/ risks for the above are too high because of Paki blackmail with their nukes then we've to work with international partners to denuke this country. We've to create an opinion where regimes like the ones in NK, Iran and Isloo are not mature and too irrational to hold nukes. Or work to split Pakistan into smaller pieces. If split, Punjab will let go Northern Areas and POK. None of the smaller states can maintain nuclear weapons systems. Splitting Pakistan is the best way to get back these areas. Remember by doing so Chinas Gwadar investment goes down the drain too. Developing friendly terms with the Balochis will get India a very good entry point to Afghanistan and Baluichistan. We can thank the Chinese tongue in cheek then for all they've done to facilitate that..

I liked Stalin for that..the political will he displayed, flattened Generals. When the Germans crossed in dozens of areas all over the Western boundary of the FSU, he held a top meeting in the late afternoon with Russian Generals and pointed to a map where German thrusts were pointed all along a 2000 mile area. Stalin asked them how much time and resources were needed to drive the Germans back. And they blurted difficulties and came atleast a couple of months if adequate resources were provided. Stalin paused ..looked around..and yelled at the top of his voice pointing with his baton hammering at the German positions on the map he shouted at the Generals...I want the counter attacks this, that, this here, this here, this there and i want you to start reversing the German thrust by..guess what? Tomorrow Morning!

Mobilize every village, every man and woman who can work. How much time does it take to show a 15 year old boy how to fire a rifle at a German uniform? Every village will defend Mother Russia..and yes we know the rest as it's History.

We however have more time and resources presently than what Stalin had at that time.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 11:05

Covert action against Pakistan by encouraging subnationalism, which already is on the rise because of Punjabi domination and Punjab getting the lion's share of resources, is a mode that can be used. It will be ciost effective compared to any war.

Here is the connection between Reagan and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The Collapse of the Soviet Union and Ronald Reagan

Several WAISers disagreed with Christopher Jones, who denied Reagan's role in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Harry Papasotiriou writes: "The Soviet Union certainly collapsed of its own weight, but Reagan helped speed up the process. The following paragraphs are from a forthcoming book that I am co-authoring.

Reagan’s conviction that the Soviet Union was both a dangerous military power and a collapsing economic system derived not from any deep knowledge of the Soviet Union. Yet he proved to be the proverbial right man in the right place at the right time. By whatever means he arrived at his views regarding the Soviet Union, he drew from them policy directions that were devastatingly effective in undermining the rotten Soviet edifice. Because of the high oil prices of the 1970s the Soviet leadership avoided serious economic reforms, such as those that saved Deng Xiaoping’s China. Instead, it relied on oil revenues as a means of keeping its decrepit economy going. By the early 1980s the Soviet Union was becoming a hollow shell, with an unreformed and increasingly backward industrial base producing outmoded pre-computer armaments. Thus it was highly vulnerable to the pressures that the Reagan administration was planning.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comoffice" />

From the outset, Reagan moved against détente and beyond containment, substituting the objective of encouraging “long-term political and military changes within the Soviet empire that will facilitate a more secure and peaceful world order”, according to an early 1981 Pentagon defense guide. Harvard’s Richard Pipes, who joined the National Security Council, advocated a new aggressive policy by which “the United States takes the long-term strategic offensive. This approach therefore contrasts with the essentially reactive and defensive strategy of containment”. Pipes’s report was endorsed in a 1982 National Security Decision Directive that formulated the policy objective of promoting “the process of change in the Soviet Union towards a more pluralistic political and economic system”. [The quotes from Peter Schweizer, Reagan's War.]

A central instrument for putting pressure on the Soviet Union was Reagan’s massive defense build-up, which raised defense spending from $134 billion in 1980 to $253 billion in 1989. This raised American defense spending to 7 percent of GDP, dramatically increasing the federal deficit. Yet in its efforts to keep up with the American defense build-up, the Soviet Union was compelled in the first half of the 1980s to raise the share of its defense spending from 22 percent to 27 percent of GDP, while it froze the production of civilian goods at 1980 levels.

Reagan’s most controversial defense initiative was SDI, the visionary project to create an anti-missile defense system that would remove the nuclear sword of Damocles from America’s homeland. Experts still disagree about the long-term feasibility of missile defense, some comparing it in substance to the Hollywood sci-fi blockbuster Star Wars. But the SDI’s main effect was to demonstrate U. S. technological superiority over the Soviet Union and its ability to expand the arms race into space. This helped convince the Soviet leadership under Gorbachev to throw in the towel and bid for a de-escalation of the arms race.

more at:
http://wais.stanford.edu/History/histor ... reagan.htm

raji · Post by **raji** » 24 May 2009 11:06

RayC wrote:It is not that there is a lack of will in the military. It is just an issue of lack of resources. If there were adequate resources made available, then POK would have been captured long ago. Since there is not adequate resources available, the Army is doing the next best thing. With each war, we are inching forward. Salami tactics if you wish given the lack of the resources. Therefore, it would be incorrect to feel that there is a lack of will amongst the Army. The Army can function based on how the Nation organises as also kits it.

If one observes the photo in the link that I have given, one would realise how many Divisions would be required. Do we have them? Can we pull out the Divisions from the East and leave the East bare? As it is, the Chinese are making belligerent noise over Arunachal and so the question of pulling out Division is not feasible.

Can we raise more Division and kit them appropriately in all its Arms and Service and the weapon systems?

Is POK the only cause of concern for India?

How does one not address the desire to dominate the Indian Ocean. To dominate will require flotillas and not the few ships that we have right now. Should we not have them? Yes. But do we have the money?

The air force has to be strengthened to complement the land and sea warfare. How many squadrons would be required? We can have as many squadrons as we want, but do we have the money?

What about the DRDO projects which requires massive funding? They have to also continue.

And just because one has to reinforce the military, can one neglect the pressing need of the common citizens of the Nation? They require a better infrastructure, given electricity, clean water, better health care, better education, eliminate poverty and so on and so forth. So, where will the money come from?

Has India that type of money?

If so, then surely we can do everything that one desires out here.

Ray,

So we lack money. If this is true, why are we tolerating enormous amonts in corruption in defense procurements ? There is massive corruption both in the civilian wing of the defense establishment and also among the higher rung of the armed forces. I recently read and posted the article on BRF, which talked about a staggering amount (something to the tune of billions of dollars) that Indians have deposited in Swiss bank and all of it is black money. For all those who think that corruption is a peripheral problem or not as serious a problem, your post is a direct link between not being able to reach a vital national objective and corruption

In any event, could you please lay out specifically, how many divisions and what other conditions in your view should exist, such that we can retake a part of Northern Areas that provides us a corridor to CAR. If you were to be the general who has been given this responsibilty and asked to submit a war plan with resources required, what will be your battle plan and what would be your resource requirements ?

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 11:28

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 24 May 2009 11:32

"Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting. "

-Sun Tzu

(By this quote of Sun Tzu, I do not mean to devalue military capability. But there are many ways of doing things.)

As regards corruption and shortage of funds: Corruption is not just in defense procurements but in all walks of life. Stopping corruption and putting the funds to good use is an excellent idea. But may I suggest that recovering PoK is less critical than doing something for the millions of kids in India who grow up stunted on account of malnutrition.

raji wrote: Ray,

So we lack money. If this is true, why are we tolerating enormous amonts in corruption in defense procurements ? There is massive corruption both in the civilian wing of the defense establishment and also among the higher rung of the armed forces. I recently read and posted the article on BRF, which talked about a staggering amount (something to the tune of billions of dollars) that Indians have deposited in Swiss bank and all of it is black money. For all those who think that corruption is a peripheral problem or not as serious a problem, your post is a direct link between not being able to reach a vital national objective and corruption

In any event, could you please lay out specifically, how many divisions and what other conditions in your view should exist, such that we can retake a part of Northern Areas that provides us a corridor to CAR. If you were to be the general who has been given this responsibilty and asked to submit a war plan with resources required, what will be your battle plan and what would be your resource requirements ?

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 24 May 2009 11:47

Pranav, i am in agreement. Economic development and growth at above 10% for the next decade and half at the minimum is essential for eradicating poverty. We have to go on a war footing reforming and developing our economy. We have tripled our GDP since 1998, in just 11 years. We must quadruple it in another 11. Imagine the resources we can generate from a 5 billion USD economy. Imagine the clout to put our POV across the globe. Economic development should go with briging stability in our neighbours. A stable Pakistan will always be a threat and nuisance. Meanwhile we have to work on resources that will help alleviate the fallout of Pakistan's demise. We have to also ensure demographic changes in the NE are under control and reversed. Dealing with BD will be aproblem in the next decade.

Doing all this must not take focus away from when the breakup of Pakistan occurs our ability to denuke Pakistan and take the Northern areas and POK. We must continue to strategize and developing a political will to do that. Developing the political will to dercognize Chinese agression or legitimacy of Tibet is also to be done. Tibetans are after all our Dharmic brothers and culturally different from the typical CCP Han bully goon types. We must also in all honesty have talks with China and the Dalai Llama on the return of Kailash and Mansarover as they being really religiously relevent to Hindu's for millenia. Like google Earth shows Arunachal in red, we must work to make sure the areas till Kailash and Mansarover are also shown in red. As disputed territory. Then people will question Chinese hold on Tibet and Mansarover.

raji · Post by **raji** » 24 May 2009 11:47

Pranav,

I dont want to take issue with you on what are more important priorities for our country, guns or butter ? But you see, this guns or butter debate is a false debate. If we drastically scale down our corruption level in all areas, we can have both guns and butter. We, even now, are not in the aggregate a poor country........and our economy will only get better as we go along. It is the disparities of income caused primarily by corruption, in a patronage system, which skews our appearance and we look like a poor country. Before, everyone goes up in arms, let me clarify that I am not saying that we are a rich country either, just that we, on the aggregate, can summon enough resources to feed ourselves and defend our country sufficiently, provided we dont indulge in corruption.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 24 May 2009 11:55

Raji, as the economy develops and people earn better salaries and live healthier lifestyles, corruption will on it's own come down. It's happened all over. A cop working 18 hour days shifts in India earning just 100 USD a month is tempted. A cop that will earn 800 USD a month is less tempted to be bribed. He then does a better job too. This change has already begun.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 24 May 2009 11:56

Raji, it's not really a guns vs butter debate. The debate is between expansionism and welfare of the population.

Also, we tend to lose perspective sometimes. What is it that we need to be secure? If in India, ration cards in fake names are available to infiltrators for a bribe of a few hundred rupees, then 10 aircraft carrier battle groups may not be sufficient to save the country.

raji wrote:Pranav,

I dont want to take issue with you on what are more important priorities for our country, guns or butter ? But you see, this guns or butter debate is a false debate. If we drastically scale down our corruption level in all areas, we can have both guns and butter. We, even now, are not in the aggregate a poor country........and our economy will only get better as we go along. It is the disparities of income caused primarily by corruption, in a patronage system, which skews our appearance and we look like a poor country. Before, everyone goes up in arms, let me clarify that I am not saying that we are a rich country either, just that we, on the aggregate, can summon enough resources to feed ourselves and defend our country sufficiently, provided we dont indulge in corruption.

raji · Post by **raji** » 24 May 2009 11:59

harbans wrote:Raji, as the economy develops and people earn better salaries and live healthier lifestyles, corruption will on it's own come down. It's happened all over. A cop working 18 hour days shifts in India earning just 100 USD a month is tempted. A cop that will earn 800 USD a month is less tempted to be bribed. He then does a better job too. This change has already begun.

How do you explain the fact then that the richer you are in India, generally, the more corrupt you are.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 12:05

Harbans,

Yes we have to take the stretch and more.

But give the resources to do so.

Pakistan requires breaking up. As it is it has too many dichotomies in the construct. These must be exploited.

I have not understood what you meant by Pakistan not requiring four Divisions to hold what. If you mean Siachen, then there are other ways to take what they hold which are easier and I would not like to discuss those. In the last Kargil conflict, we have done some good work where in they have become vulnerable even more.

I would not comment on what Brig Hoshiyar Singh said and did because that would not be fair to him. However, it is worth wondering what his Brigade could do, now requires a greater quantum of troops to hold!!

When one does not cover one’s flanks of his axis of maintenance i.e. holding heights, then the logistic and movement of the axis becomes vulnerable, just like if indeed Pakistan occupied the heights overlooking NH1A, then Ladakh would have been cut off!! Therefore, if I may submit, securing the Axis of maintenance is of immense importance.

Skardu from the LC is 130 kms. The above post where I have embedded a relief map should indicate the number of ridges that have to be crossed and which will be manned once Indian intentions are known. And it is all in the HAA realm. I think Ravi Rikye wrote on the issue in a fictional scenario. Again it is the case of resources. If peaks had to be taken at Kargil at great cost, imagine what it would have taken to oust the FCNA from areas they would occupy in defence. Lest one feels that I am being a defeatist, I would hasten to add I have participated in wars, carried out raids deep into POK, been in operations that have not been publicised and have been duly compensated with the honours due for action. It is just that having been there and done that (as they say) I view war in a pragmatic manner and am able to understand what we can do and what we cannot, given the resources available. If the US cannot cow down Iraq and Afghanistan, even though they are sure of their national aims and have no dearth of military resources and technology, India is in a state which Barkis was in – the sprit is willing, but the flesh is weak.

Many ideas are there in Delhi of doing A or B. Why was Gen Sunderjee’s concept of bifurcating Pakistan abandoned and Cold Start adopted? Pragmatism in the geostrategic realm I presume. If Skardu can be taken, why was it not done earlier? And yet many things have been done at the lower levels without sanction of the political masters or the higher military officers which have gone in favour of the country. I am sure there will be many fathers for the actions taken!! If you ever meet Lt Gen Panag, ask him what I am talking about when he was a Brigade Commander.

I won’t blame politicians for alack of political will. I am sure they have serious constraints and I would not think that they are anyway less patriotic than all of us either!

Punjab of Pakistan is our trump card. They were responsible for Bangaldesh. They were also responsible for Bugti’s revolt. They are ideal to be encouraged since Pakistan has milked them for ages. The favour to be accrued to Punjab was responsible for Sindh not allowing the Kalabag Dam. Foist them and their egos.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalabagh_Dam

The Mohajirs are another lot who are totally dissatisfied and disillusioned with Pakistan. Ideal target for subnationalism and they are the educated and enterprising lot!

The Northern Area is Shia. Pakistan is planting Pahstun Sunnis to change the demographic status, Encourage Balwairstan.

Pakistan can be demolished without lifting a finger. And anyway, Zia has helped us in this area with the successor to the Mujhahideens i.e. the Taliban!!

I too believe in what Pranav has appended:

"Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting. "

-Sun Tzu

If I can win without spilling blood (and it is not that spilling blood deterred me for the national cause). then why take the hard option?

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 24 May 2009 12:12

Good post Ray ji. Your experience and contribution to India's defense are truly appreciable. However in lighter vein..

An old Sailor and an old Jawan were sitting and arguing about who'd had the tougher career. "I did 30 years in the Infantry," the Jawan declared proudly, "and fought in three of my country's wars. Fresh out of training I hit the desert in Rajasthan, clawed my way up the blood-soaked sand, and eventually took out an entire enemy machine gun nest with a single grenade. As a Lance Naik, I fought in Bangladesh alongside General Arora. We pushed back the enemy inch by bloody inch all the way up to their barracks, always under a barrage of artillery and small arms fire. Finally, as a JCO I took part in the Kargil Operations. We fought in mountainous terrain many days, plagued by bad weather and mosquitoes, ducking under sniper fire all day and mortar fire all night. In a firefight, we'd fire until our arms ached and our guns were empty, then we'd charge the enemy with bayonets."

"Ah," said the sailor with a dismissive wave of his hand, "Lucky ********, all shore duty, huh?"

Credits to Rakesh ji..

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/NAVY/Arti ... cle22.html

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 12:15

raji wrote:Pranav,

I dont want to take issue with you on what are more important priorities for our country, guns or butter ? But you see, this guns or butter debate is a false debate. If we drastically scale down our corruption level in all areas, we can have both guns and butter. We, even now, are not in the aggregate a poor country........and our economy will only get better as we go along. It is the disparities of income caused primarily by corruption, in a patronage system, which skews our appearance and we look like a poor country. Before, everyone goes up in arms, let me clarify that I am not saying that we are a rich country either, just that we, on the aggregate, can summon enough resources to feed ourselves and defend our country sufficiently, provided we dont indulge in corruption.

Here I would just like to say that MMS is having a tough time not to accommodate Baalu and Raja, so how can corruption go?

If the CBI cannot take Quatrochhi (spelling!), Mayawati, Mulayam and Lallu to the courts, how will corruption vanish?

If to be declared a Below Poverty Line person requires one to share the booty before one is registered, how can corruption go?

If the country was ideal, then things I am sure would be different.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 12:16

harbans wrote:Good post Ray ji. Your experience and contribution to India's defense are truly appreciable. However in lighter vein..

An old Sailor and an old Jawan were sitting and arguing about who'd had the tougher career. "I did 30 years in the Infantry," the Jawan declared proudly, "and fought in three of my country's wars. Fresh out of training I hit the desert in Rajasthan, clawed my way up the blood-soaked sand, and eventually took out an entire enemy machine gun nest with a single grenade. As a Lance Naik, I fought in Bangladesh alongside General Arora. We pushed back the enemy inch by bloody inch all the way up to their barracks, always under a barrage of artillery and small arms fire. Finally, as a JCO I took part in the Kargil Operations. We fought in mountainous terrain many days, plagued by bad weather and mosquitoes, ducking under sniper fire all day and mortar fire all night. In a firefight, we'd fire until our arms ached and our guns were empty, then we'd charge the enemy with bayonets."

"Ah," said the sailor with a dismissive wave of his hand, "Lucky ********, all shore duty, huh?"
Credits to Rakesh ji..

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/NAVY/Arti ... cle22.html

A great one.

I am going for my Course get together on 11 June to the Army House.I hope I have your and Rakesh's permission to give this one!!

It will surely bring the house down!!

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 24 May 2009 12:37

raji wrote:
harbans wrote:Raji, as the economy develops and people earn better salaries and live healthier lifestyles, corruption will on it's own come down. It's happened all over. A cop working 18 hour days shifts in India earning just 100 USD a month is tempted. A cop that will earn 800 USD a month is less tempted to be bribed. He then does a better job too. This change has already begun.

How do you explain the fact then that the richer you are in India, generally, the more corrupt you are.

In an economy that does not believe in rule of law, who you know matters the most for getting contracts and getting things done. This manifests as corruption.

As a person gets rich this way, he also gets the ability to dispense favours. Hence, the system perpetuates itself.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 12:37

In any event, could you please lay out specifically, how many divisions and what other conditions in your view should exist, such that we can retake a part of Northern Areas that provides us a corridor to CAR. If you were to be the general who has been given this responsibilty and asked to submit a war plan with resources required, what will be your battle plan and what would be your resource requirements ?

Maybe six Armies that we have at present.

Can't say with accuracy. Too mind boggling and I am sure the GOI is incapable of providing even half of what would be required. So, why should I get frustrated? Give me what you can, I shall deliver to my best. I won't complain if I or my men die in such a pursuit. My Nation comes first, always and every time and then comes my men and I last!! Chetwode!

Basic amenities can't be given by the Govt to either the military or the common civilian and we talk of bifurcating Pakistan and capturing POK.

Such humbug as Am admi (who is damned after the election) and roti kapda and makan when they are dying on the streets!!

I have heard garibi hatao for a long time. Why is there still garibi? And we go gaga because Slumdog Millionaire won Oscars but we do damn all to remove this slur on our Nation.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2009 12:44

raji wrote:
How do you explain the fact then that the richer you are in India, generally, the more corrupt you are.

Corruption is the easiest route to wealth, but in does not give 100 % results.

In other words 80% of the population attempt corruption regularly or once in a while. Only 10% succeed. So 8% of the population are corrupt and rich. 72% are corrupt, but still trying to get rich. 20% are uncorrupt and have either decided not to get rich, or will never get rich.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 12:45

shiv wrote:
raji wrote:
How do you explain the fact then that the richer you are in India, generally, the more corrupt you are.
Corruption is the easiest route to wealth, but in does not give 100 % results.

In other words 80% of the population attempt corruption regularly or one in a while. Only 10% succeed. So 8% of the population are corrupt and rich. 72% are corrupt, but still trying to get rich. 20% are uncorrupt and have either decided not to get rich, or will never get rich.

Good analysis!

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 12:59

I would like to assure all that we in the military are also Indians and equally concerned about our nation and its prestige. We are proud to be Indians.

However, we share the concern that the common population is far more deprived than us and that something must be done for them.

Their need is greater than ours!

If India grows, we grow!

India must grow first and then we will take care of the issues that is bothering you all. In the interim, I assure you that we shall not hesitate on the 'salami tactics' as and when the windows of opportunity presents itself!!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2009 13:06

RayC wrote:I would like to assure all that we in the military are also Indians and equally concerned about our nation and its prestige. We are proud to be Indians.

However, we share the concern that the common population is far more deprived than us and that something must be done for them.

Their need is greater than ours!

If India grows, we grow!

India must grow first and then we will take care of the issues that is bothering you all. In the interim, I assure you that we shall not hesitate on the 'salami tactics' as and when the windows of opportunity presents itself!!

Ray - nobody believes me that many Indians act as if every member of any particular profession is a different "caste" owing loyalty only his caste. If you are a member of the armed forces - you are expected to be loyal to the armed forces and not to India or the President. If a corrupt officer exists you should support him as one of your own and not go against him

I, as a doctor will protect corrupt doctors and work against the other castes who are against me. What do I care if unnecessary operations are done? The other doctor benefits and I too can benefit. To hell with what you think. I know you are part of the army and you must be corrupt. Therefore it is quite OK for me to be corrupt.

RayC · Post by **RayC** » 24 May 2009 13:18

shiv wrote:
RayC wrote:I would like to assure all that we in the military are also Indians and equally concerned about our nation and its prestige. We are proud to be Indians.

However, we share the concern that the common population is far more deprived than us and that something must be done for them.

Their need is greater than ours!

If India grows, we grow!

India must grow first and then we will take care of the issues that is bothering you all. In the interim, I assure you that we shall not hesitate on the 'salami tactics' as and when the windows of opportunity presents itself!!
Ray - nobody believes me that many Indians act as if every member of any particular profession is a different "caste" owing loyalty only his caste. If you are a member of the armed forces - you are expected to be loyal to the armed forces and not to India or the President. If a corrupt officer exists you should support him as one of your own and not go against him

I, as a doctor will protect corrupt doctors and work against the other castes who are against me. What do I care if unnecessary operations are done? The other doctor benefits and I too can benefit. To hell with what you think. I know you are part of the army and you must be corrupt. Therefore it is quite OK for me to be corrupt.

I would with all due respect disagree.

I would be damned if I support a corrupt officer. I have sent a Garrison Engineer to Alipur Jail, Calcutta a feat that was never done before!

There was a stupid woman doctor who did not want to stay in Kargil during the Ops and all wanted her to go back to the peace area. She complained that she did not have privacy when bathing. I told her to bathe with her clothes, not because I was concerned about her privacy, but because when the troops saw her nude, if indeed they did, it would be so horrifying that they would get frozen in action!!

Then there were young chit of women officers who jumped the line for food. Much against my GOC's desire I sent them back into line as per the rank. As a 2/Lt I could only smell the Chicken. As a Lt and then as a Capt, I could eat the gravy/ neck, as a Major I got the breast and as a Col I got the drumstick. Why in the name of hell will these young women Lts not go through our ordeal? And instead eat the drumstick and I, as a Brigadier, having gone through all the ordeal of life, go back to eating the neck?

The GOC had no answer and since I was the President. Mess Committee, I had my way. That is democracy in the Army, if I may add.

No, rules are rules and they have to be maintained for orderliness. if for nothing else.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2009 14:35

Sorry to digress. The fact is RayC that there are a lot of selfless and uncorrupt people around in India. But they have to be sifted from the corrupt people.

In an institution such as the army the punishment for corruption is relatively high compared with say that of a clerk a job in a city corporation office. The clerk in the city corporation office knows that he is corrupt, but he justifies that by believing that everyone else is corrupt anyway. He needs this excuse to set aside his guilt.

This manifests itself on an everyday basis in India. It permeates the system to the very roots in things like "ghost schools" that do not exist while the money goes to the corporator or educaton official. Schools are understaffed and teaching does not occur. Those who want to learn and can afford it (and have access to the facilities) will get extra tuition. Other people will pay for question papers to be leaked. The worker at a government printing press where question papers are printed can make crores. Since this is well known to all - he is allowed only to make thousands - the crores go to a higher official who officially leaks the paper. The going rate for a medical postgraduate entrance exam paper leak is Rs 10 lakhs per candidate in Karnataka.

Did you know that we have 3 different school degrees obtainable in Karnataka?
1) CBSE (Central Board)
2) ICSE (Cambridge style)
3) SSLC - Karnataka state board

In 2009 over 90% of children passed their (much more difficult) CBSE and ICSE examinations.

Only 47% of several lakh children passed the SSLC board exam. About 74 schools registered NO passes. all candidates from those schools failed. What the hell is going on in India. This is "Karnataka" - the IT capital of India

One of my friends, a practising doctor was terminated from a medical college where he was assistant professor because he was caught collecting Rs 10,000 per candidate for passing him in an exam. The problem was that he was caught. One hospital had to be "inspected for suitability for a postgraduate course. The inspector was an old friend of mine from Medical College. He was essentially incorruptible - and the hospital met the standards - but they were shocked when he refused the Rs 10,000 cheque they had ready for him and even refused the Rs 5000 silver vase "token gift". The previous year's inspector had brought his wife along and she had gone on a shopping spree at Bangalore's "silk palaces".

In the last few days a Bangalore University official has been caught taking a bribe for giving the licence for a new college. In Karnataka - if you want a new college - you first bribe the minister. Then you set up the college and bribe the University for recognition. You have ghost staff who appear only on inspection day. When I was much younger and a suitable age for middle grade staff (lecturer/assistant professor) I was offered many such jobs where I would be paid a monthly salary to appear at the college once a week and on inspection days once a year.

And how do the colleges make money? "Donations" of course. An old old and very dear childhood friend of mine is a successful doctor in Pune - he has literally made crores and has several local corporators "in his pocket". He paid a donation of Rs 15 lakhs to gain admission for one child of his into a dental college in Karnataka.

And so it goes...

It is easier to talk about capture of PoK. Leave alone the poor and destitute. Even well off and aware people have to live inside this corrupt system and will any day say balls to PoK. Release my own city from the clutches of the corrupt. You help give my child an honest education and chance to earn and honest living no bribes and corruption it is more than enough. Getting PoK is a completely meaningless exercise in a country that is ruled by corrupt people. Getting "national support" for such ventures ain't gonna happen outside of BRF.

raji · Post by **raji** » 24 May 2009 16:02

shiv wrote:
raji wrote:
How do you explain the fact then that the richer you are in India, generally, the more corrupt you are.
Corruption is the easiest route to wealth, but in does not give 100 % results.

In other words 80% of the population attempt corruption regularly or once in a while. Only 10% succeed. So 8% of the population are corrupt and rich. 72% are corrupt, but still trying to get rich. 20% are uncorrupt and have either decided not to get rich, or will never get rich.

On the money !

The 20% are getting smaller by the day, as they realize the hopelessness of being honest. They are the ones who make India run, and the smaller this uncorrupt section becomes, the greater the burden they carry. They have in India become nothing but beasts of burden. They are the 21 year olds that climbed the Kargill heights knowing they will not come back, when ordered by their superiors. They are the engine driver that makes the trains run. They are the farm worker that grows the food, they are the day labor who builds the multi-million dollar homes. They are the engineer in Bihar who died for calling out corruption. They are the young MBA in UP, who was murdered for calling out corruption.....

When we take corruption casually, we not only insult all these people, we increase their burden. We stick a knife deep inside them and turn it. When we say there is corruption in the west too and there was so so much in Britain......we punish these people who are our beasts of burden. When we say, patronage is our system "onlee" and lets only go for incremental changes.......we shame them.........these beasts of burder.....we pile on the weight on indignities on top of their already heavy burden........and when we say that low salaries will inevitably cause corruption and those who indulge in it do it to put food on their table, we pile up a huge lie on the backs of these beasts of burden.......as one engine driver's salary is no more than another engine driver, one labor's wages is no more than another labor, one doctors salary is no more than another.........yet one is corrupt and the other isnt.....

And yeah.......very perceptive.....its the masses that have gotten corrupt. The vast majority aspire to be corrupt, just dont get a chance. They all line up for "nirvana" and when they are not hugely successful in attaining corruption, they indulge in petty corruption, nevertheless......

Then there are those of us who say.......we are no more corrupt than anyone else.....look at China........look at Pak, hell, we are so much better than Pak........hurray.........how disgusting.......I weep for my country.......and for my people.....

raji · Post by **raji** » 24 May 2009 16:12

And...........how can such a corrupt people truly prosper........or truly live in peace ??

God did not invent AIDS to punish Gay people....(as the christian fundamentalists like to claim).....

But he sure invented Islam........and terrorism to punish the Hindus............for being corrupt....

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 24 May 2009 18:17

Yes, corruption has been a strategic problem for India, beginning with the Jeep import scam under Nehru.

http://www.indiatoday.com/itoday/20060703/scams.html
Free India's corruption graph begins. V. K. Krishna Menon, then the Indian high commissioner to Britain, bypassed protocol to sign a deal worth Rs 80 lakh with a foreign firm for the purchase of army jeeps. The case was closed in 1955 and soon after Menon joined the Nehru cabinet.

Corruption may have seeped into some of the population, but it is true that "Yatha Raja Thatha Praja" (As the ruler so the ruled). Generally the commons have no option but to submit to rapacious officials demanding bribes. There is a food-chain of corruption that extends from the lowly peon to the top echelons of the national political parties. Prospects are bleak unless somehow a non-corrupt leader can come into power. Such a leader could clean things up with the support of the commons.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 24 May 2009 19:06

ramana wrote: That is why I posted this a page ago.

If Reagan and company had sat around thinking Soviet Union cannot and should not be erased due to nuke factor etc., we still would have the Cold war going on. The biggest mistake is to ask implementors to decide on policy. You will find a hazar reasons why its bad idea. Instead turn it around and ask how will you implement this policy.

To modify Cicero's famous quote "Delando est Pakistan!" How do we get there?

well said ramana-garu,

If Pakistan can occupy and administer POK and NA, If Taliban can occupy the inhospitable area in the phuk-ap area, if PRC can occupy and control Tibit, and if UK/USA have plans to influence a land locked independent Kashmir, I am not sure why Indian cannot retake POK+NA.

The question is what is need to get that done? How much of it is military and how much of it is influence and how much of it is manipulation. Perhaps the armed forces my propose occupation of a slim tract of Pakistan to achieve this object and that that is what becomes the bargaining chip.

Looks like the armed forces are looking for risk-free scenarios in terms of man power and equipment. Is it stemmed from the lack of trust in political leadership or the armed forces are content with the responsibility they have in hand.

I saw a headline on BR mainpage. PRC is a bigger threat than PAK. Then it makes it even more important to separate these two threats and it will have the snowball effect required on PRC.