India's approach is very staggered and rudderless. The action is in spurts. We always seem to react rather than seize the initiative. Over the last year or two, we have seen India's reaction and at every step we tend to rationalize and see if there is any chanakiyan move in it. Frankly, i do not see anything chanakiyan. We seem to be lost as what needs to be done. It appears we are so scared to assert ourselves with the US. We are not successful in making the US see our point. Basically we are not able use our leverage against Pakistan.
The current peace offer benefits the US most, next Pakistan. Pakistan suddenly seems to have grown a spine. They have managed to kick us at the London conf. They fooled at SeS. Now they are dragging IWT as point of negotiation. Our HM's statement affirming Omar's offer of rehabilitation is at best opening the Pandora's box.
Whatever that has been achieved after 26/11 is lost. With our current offer, we lost our moral ground in our own eyes. The next time we pull out of negotiations, Pakistan will not even care - they have seen us coming back to them. We have set a dangerous precedent.
Our leadership appears to be bankrupt. We reportedly replaced our NSA for his hawkish stance on Pak. We gave the NSA position to the author of SeS. It cannot see any more hopeless position than this.
Gagan wrote:
2. India will instead resort to:
a) Using the good offices of the US and its War on Terror to persue a change in the way Pakistan is run. The ultimate goal seems to be to separate the Pakistan Army from the center of Power and the running of that country.
We are yet to see the good office of US being used aganist Pak effectively. We all know how Pak Army holds the key to the territorial integrity of Pakistan. The next crop of Pak Officers are more rabid islamists than the current generation. They grew up on a steady diet of Anti-India dose of hatred. We all have seen examples of Pakistani Syllabus and exams.
Gagan wrote:
b) India's other option is to internally destabilize that country, so that the Pakistani army comes to its knees.
c) India is willing to pay lip service to dialogue on all issues to keep Pakistan engaged till such time as the fissiparous tendencies, and economic collapse within that country tear it apart. Meanwhile India along with the United States, Great Britain, Russia etc will encourage the separatist tendencies within Pakistan.
d) The aim is to squeeze Pakistan diplomatically, militarily, economically until the Pakistan Army gives up governance within that country or that country tears itself apart into smaller states.
Thanks to IKG, we do not have any of that capability. With our S-e-S, it does not matter any more. Without doing anything we gave Pakistan a stick to beat us. I am sure Paki's know we are not playing any mischief. Pakistan will help US play mischief with Iran due to Sunni-Shia relationship. Pakistan would love to see a weakened Iran.
Gagan wrote:
3. These goals are the same that are sought to be achieved, except that utilizing this route:
a) The end result of a Pakistan that is stable and prosperous, but is not a challenger to India in any sphere.
b) By and large India's goals get achieved without the proverbial 'firing a single bullet'.
c) In a democracy where the parliament and the civil administration are the supreme arbritars of state power, the military will be used but as one of the tools along with several other means to achieve desired goals.
For this we need a stronger leader. After PVNR, we are yet to see one and in our immediate future crop their is none.