Levant crisis - III

habal · Post by **habal** » 03 Sep 2016 14:26

September 1st, 2016 at 12:36 PM
American Soldiers killed in Syria -turned over to US consulate--bet no US paper carries this--

THEY HAVE GIVEN NAMES

It has been reported that the bodies of three Americans fighting with the Kurdish YPG against ISIS in the northern Syrian city of Manbij had arrived to the U.S. on Tuesday.

Jordan MacTaggart, William Savage and Levi Jonathan Shirley were among a big contingent of foreigner’s fighting for the YPG.

A border official of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) told the Iraq-based Rudaw that the corpses of three Americans were transferred to KRG-controlled Northern Iraq through the Semelka border town.
AMN Field Correspondent Campaign

“The three American fighters were killed during Manbij liberation operations. A U.S. consulate delegation attended the ceremony of returning the three corpses as they were handed over to them,” Shawkat Berbahari said.

habal · Post by **habal** » 03 Sep 2016 14:31

SAAF gets a convoy, maybe headed towards Hama redeployment.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sy ... -quneitra/

Al-Quneitra, Syria (10:50 A.M.) – The Syrian Air Force carried out a powerful airstrike in the Al-Quneitra Governorate on Thursday night, targeting the Islamist rebels along the provincial border with the Dara’a Governorate.

According to a military source, the Syrian Air Force destroyed a row of vehicles that belonged to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), along with 6 of their fighters in the Al-Quneitra Governorate.

Some of the Islamist rebels that were killed on Thursday night were identified as Firas Al-Mahasnah, Muhammad Al-Malahma, ‘Abdel-Malek Al-Halqi, and Ahmad Sayouf. i

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2016 17:16

The two turkish fronts are now 20km away from meeting

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha
Turkish tanks enter al-Ra'i as #EuohratesShield begins push to meet with Jarablus pocket, Aleppo

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2016 18:15

Most of the syrian army despite coldish weather fights with no helmets or bpj. Would reduce casualties and severity of wounds.

This is one area where even passive subhchintaks like yindia could lend a hand.

Also the vehicle mounted radars we use bfsr mr could help.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2016 18:33

Hope we do not remain in bjp margdarshak mode forever..

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Sep 2016 22:41

Armed drones of jund al aqsa drop bombs on govt

While we are still uh working on rustom2 and nishant s total flop

Our lag is even woree than in jet engines

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 04 Sep 2016 01:49

Putin was supposed to be that strong, no nonsense leader of new Russia.

Can someone explain to me his pussyfooting in Syria. Erdogan shot down one of his plane, killed one of his man. And here he is happy at a little ego massage and given a green signal to Turkey to enter Syria and attack PKK.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 04 Sep 2016 07:34

The Kurds are a long term threat to the unity of Syria so the government of Syria is looking at the other way while Turkey beats the shit out of the Kurds. the government of Syria cannot afford to fight against the Kurds at this point. Their immediate concerns are the FSA and the Islamic rebels. They are focused on getting Aleppo and the countryside back. They need to shore up the western part of Syria. Turkey can focus on the northern eastern part of Syria. Long term, Turkey do not have the staying power to remain in that part for a long time.

Putin is playing a multi-layered chess game where patience is a key virtue.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 08:35

turkish M60 upgraded tank in syria

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 08:36

Walid ‏@walid970721 15h15 hours ago
Walid Retweeted جريدة السفير
Russian sources tell @assafir agr. has been reached w/ US whereby #Syria/n govt gradually regains control of #Aleppo

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 08:39

https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/08/ ... in-losers/

what we all know....they have agreed to collaborate for now and kurds and nusra are main losers.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 04 Sep 2016 08:54

Explains a lot:

Hillary financed by Saudi govt to the tune of $140,000/month
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/medea-ben ... 79826.html

If I told you that Democratic Party lobbyist Tony Podesta, whose brother John Podesta chairs Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, is a registered foreign agent on the Saudi government’s payroll, you’d probably think I was a Trump-thumping, conspiratorial nutcase. But it’s true.

The lobby firm created by both Tony and John Podesta in 1988 receives $140,000 a month from the Saudi government, a government that beheads nonviolent dissidents, uses torture to extract forced confessions, doesn’t allow women to drive, and bombs schools, hospitals and residential neighborhoods in neighboring Yemen.

The Podesta Group’s March 2016 filing, required under the Foreign Agents Registration Act of 1938, shows that Tony Podesta himself oversees the Saudi account. At the same time, Tony Podesta is also a top campaign contributor and bundler for Hillary Clinton. So while one brother runs the campaign, the other brother funds it with earnings that come, in part, from the Saudis.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Sep 2016 10:17

Singha wrote:syrian AF has a few modernized Mig29 , the rest is ancient Mig21 and Su22 and a few creaky Hind helis. none have any precision navigation or ground attack capability or even chaff and flares.

as a client state buildup proposal, Rus needs to consider:
- some high quality Pantsyr / Buk systems to protect vital areas from the Turks
- retire all but the Mig29 , beef it up with better A2G avionics and PGMs
- give them a new set of Mi28, Mi24 and Frogfoots and enough munitions and self defence measures
- for G2G moves, give them huge nos of 122mm, 130mm tubes, 120mm mortars, grads, uragans....quick and cheap way to beat back attacks
- observation helicopters like Mi17 and drones
- a factory to make shells for the same and guaranteed supplies for the rest from Noko/Norinco/Urals
- ELINT systems to monitor rebel comms and moves
- a couple of specialized Mi17 equipped with GMTI radar to monitor things at night and id the creeping rat movements ...
- a training system to train up recruits over 6 months intensively

its a big thing and 2 yr project even with resources poured into it.

I think they already have BUK-M1-2 and Pantsir AD system , The Russians have donated few Su-24M recently about 7-8 of them.

Other then that Air Warefare wont be a game changer in this complex scenario at Syria .....so having a Mig-29 wont do any good to SYAAF as the Russians are already there with AF and AD system.

More likely they need Better Training & Tactics , more Men with the same , BPJ/Small Arms and tons of MRLS , ATGM and above all good intelligence and most important Hearts and Minds of Syrian people.

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Sep 2016 10:22

jaish al fath new recruits in aleppo. watch from 1:20 onwards, all look lifeless and despondent. It sems the morale is broken and they do not want to fight the enemy.

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Sep 2016 10:26

https://twitter.com/Interbrigades

USA "useful idiots" twitter account. Seems like he is frustrated no more men are coming from Jordan to fight in Syria.
" US Trained Militants That Formed the 'Core of Daesh' "

http://sputniknews.com/us/20160901/1044 ... daesh.html

a group of US citizens visiting Syria and seeing the ordinary Americans were fooled from day 1. The article writer mess up the names of terrorist organizations but they all the same anyways.

http://theduran.com/syrian-conflict-not ... ggression/

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 04 Sep 2016 10:38

I think massive number of 120 to 240mm Mortars will be cheaper and will do the job adequately. The second thing would be repair and overhaul Syrian existing Airforce assets and bringing them into combat.

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Sep 2016 11:03

Damascus and Ankara strike a deal: Erdogan gets the Kurds and Assad gets Aleppo appeared in Lebanon’s Assafir newspaper on August 29:

The Syrians and the Turks are on the verge of a security understanding that will lead to a political one.

the Turks backing off in Aleppo and closing the crossings used by some of the armed groups (the most important ones) in the north in exchange for the Turkish forces to be given the freedom to destroy the Kurdish project in Syria. In other words, the city of Aleppo goes to Syria and the corpse of the Kurdish project in Syria goes to the Turks.

https://yallalabarra.wordpress.com/2016 ... ts-aleppo/

pralay · Post by **pralay** » 04 Sep 2016 12:07

South Aleppo:
Tiger forces and Hizbollah has captured Airforce Technical College(North) and Armament college(South)
and Artillery Base(Middle) is also captured(as per some sources, some say 60% captured).
Now Ramousseh is also being shelled.

So its safe to expect high pich hue and cry from western media about the SAA beseiging trillions of civilions in rebel controlled Aleppo.
We can also expect hundreds of new hospitals and schools in rebel controlled areas.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Sep 2016 12:10

Good Read Singha , habal

Russia’s “Permanent Military Base” in Syria: Moscow just tipped the Balance of Power in the Mediterranean

http://www.globalresearch.ca/russias-pe ... an/5541294

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 12:16

I believe turkey has closed the bab al hawa border crossing to north Idlib until atleast Bakr id. the jihadis can still move stuff through smaller routes into Idlib and Latakia but the days of having a free run with official approval are perhaps over.

turkish moles in the Idlib jihadis could be passing on intel about high value targets to syrian army sabouteurs who have carried out numerous assassinations of leaders there earlier ....

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 12:18

^^ Iranians are very firm that they want not just Aleppo but Idlib as well , and usually hezbollah will follow the iranian lead. they want to relieve the besieged shia towns like Fuah and Kafraya as a kind of religious hardship duty ... recently jihadis who used to allow UN food shipments in have proudly smashed the main water tank and pounded the place with 250 shells.

Assad might be willing to back this after he secures aleppo properly which I see happening by this year end.

next year will be Idlib and march east from Palmyra

I guess the kurds will still have their Rojava east of the euphrates and in Manbij area ... not sure what kind of proto-state will emerge in north aleppo along the border ...

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Sep 2016 12:40

Admission by Die Welt that Western intelligence agencies had doubts in 2013 about claims of Syrian government responsibility for sarin gas attack on Damascus suburb was previously made by US President Obama himself.

Here’s how US Intelligence warned Obama of doubts Assad was responsible for 2013 gas attack

http://theduran.com/heres-us-intelligen ... as-attack/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 12:41

russian VVD ... one of the units from which syria detachment is drawn

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 13:52

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 13:59

CT unit of spetsgruppa

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 14:05

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 14:07

The keys to Mordor lies in khan touman, retake that and you command the plains stretching away to sauron's tower

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 04 Sep 2016 16:02

Hitesh wrote:The Kurds are a long term threat to the unity of Syria so the government of Syria is looking at the other way while Turkey beats the shit out of the Kurds. the government of Syria cannot afford to fight against the Kurds at this point. Their immediate concerns are the FSA and the Islamic rebels. They are focused on getting Aleppo and the countryside back. They need to shore up the western part of Syria. Turkey can focus on the northern eastern part of Syria. Long term, Turkey do not have the staying power to remain in that part for a long time.

Putin is playing a multi-layered chess game where patience is a key virtue.

Turkey under Erdogan is clearly Islamist. It has also shot down a Russian plane in recent past.
PKK is marxist.
Assad is `secular` willing to compromise with Islamists.
What possible advantages can Putin get from allowing Erdogan to hammer PKK which is no threat to its military bases in Syria is beyond me. If Turkey does not have staying power in Kurd lands, then neither does Assad.
Putin has been played by Erdogan. In fact Erdogan has been playing Europe, Russia and America at the same time and successfuly too. If he can shoot down a russian plane once, what stops him from doing it again after his interests are served by hammering PKK.
Keeping the ideological affinity that Putin must have with the kurds aside, PKK is a nice lever to keep Erdogan in check. Considering Erdogan`s islamist ambitions in Central Asia and elsewhere, imho Putin has acted foolish and like all dictators become a victim of his ego.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 16:29

Remains to be seen who will police this 100k wide buffer zone. Its a large collection of targets for kurds to bite once it shifts from attack to occupation mode

Letting him in there may be the price assad and russia had to pay for turkey backing off on aleppo issue

Assad cannot afford bloodbaths that will shrink his precarious numbers...divisions are down to batallion strength

habal · Post by **habal** » 04 Sep 2016 17:08

artillery college and ramouseh are in red zone now.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 04 Sep 2016 18:46

habal wrote:Damascus and Ankara strike a deal: Erdogan gets the Kurds and Assad gets Aleppo appeared in Lebanon’s Assafir newspaper on August 29:

The Syrians and the Turks are on the verge of a security understanding that will lead to a political one.

the Turks backing off in Aleppo and closing the crossings used by some of the armed groups (the most important ones) in the north in exchange for the Turkish forces to be given the freedom to destroy the Kurdish project in Syria. In other words, the city of Aleppo goes to Syria and the corpse of the Kurdish project in Syria goes to the Turks.

https://yallalabarra.wordpress.com/2016 ... ts-aleppo/

Potentially Turkey can give up all FSA, ISIS areas in mainland Syria to Assad allowing him to consolidate while Assad can give up Northern Syria ie Kurdland to Turkey to pound. This will serve interest of Syria, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Russia. In long term Turkey, Syria and whole Region is ****** but who bothers?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 20:43

Yes that seems to be plan.

Usa will have to mediate between fsa and ypg who gets what.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 22:03

some say turkey organized the aleppo offensive to put pressure on the russians to accept the jarablous-alrai thing in exchange for getting aleppo back.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 22:05

^^ ofcourse while turkey got what it wanted, the pawns in the game were al-muyahsni and his nusrah-zinki horde some 2000 of whom lost their lives in what was eventually a fruitless tactical victory ... and a lot of TOW missiles and armour used up as well, plus some 20+ VBIED jihadis met their 72 hoors.

condoms are always used like that.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Sep 2016 22:06

they have to recapture the entire area upto Khan touman to be really secure...its not over yet. the Idlib jihadis might decide to cut their losses and withdraw west from this area though.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 04 Sep 2016 22:30

I think Sultan realised that USA is preparing a bamboo for turkey's backside aka Kurdland. Decided to do about turn and dodge it. Par picture abhi baki hai and he still may push Turkey off the cliff.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 05 Sep 2016 00:17

Bhurishravas wrote: Turkey under Erdogan is clearly Islamist. It has also shot down a Russian plane in recent past.
PKK is marxist.
Assad is `secular` willing to compromise with Islamists.
What possible advantages can Putin get from allowing Erdogan to hammer PKK which is no threat to its military bases in Syria is beyond me. If Turkey does not have staying power in Kurd lands, then neither does Assad.
Putin has been played by Erdogan. In fact Erdogan has been playing Europe, Russia and America at the same time and successfuly too. If he can shoot down a russian plane once, what stops him from doing it again after his interests are served by hammering PKK.
Keeping the ideological affinity that Putin must have with the kurds aside, PKK is a nice lever to keep Erdogan in check. Considering Erdogan`s islamist ambitions in Central Asia and elsewhere, imho Putin has acted foolish and like all dictators become a victim of his ego.

You have to consider the facts from a geostrategic-political standpoint. Assad and his government is in no shape at all to tackle all enemies at once even with Russian help. As one poster alluded, Assad's forces are down to battalion strength, not division, meaning he no longer has the ability take over a city with brute force. He has to rely on strategic maneuvering. He knows that the Kurds are a long term threat but still need its support in the immediate term to relieve pressure on Assad's forces from the east. But he can't afford to publicly declare in support of Turkey cracking down on the Kurds so he is having Putin coming out so there is real deniability from Assad in case he needs to make overtures to the Kurds. He figures that once the Kurds are beaten enough, they may be amenable to the idea of staying within Syria but having semi-autonomy and Assad will, through Putin, tell Turkey to back off.

Right now, he needs to break the back of the Islamists and the FSA. Turkey is willing to allow that to happen in exchange to pound against the Kurds. It serves Putin's interest because it means that USA's interests would decline once the FSA crumbles and the Islamists are wiped out and the Americans no longer have any valid excuse to invade Syrian airspace. Iraq won't allow such incursions through the influence of Iran. Then Syria under Assad once it recovers Aleppo and secures the countryside in the western part can move towards eastern and reclaim control and sovereignity over the rest of Syria. Assad, under the advice, will make peace with the Kurds in a way that is acceptable to everyone involve. No recognized sovereignity or independence for the Kurds but a semi or quasi-autonomy for the kurds in Syria as long as they accept Damascus' plenary powers and tax power and in exchange, Damascus leaves Kurds alone as long as they respect the borders and do not conduct any type of raid. Damascus will look the other way whenever Turkey needs to launch a punitive raid against the kurds as long as the turkish forces promptly retreat back to the agreed upon borders once achieving its objectives.

And Putin has a ready made ally and a secured base in the Mediterranean Sea where it can expand its influence or counter any NATO or USA influence. Putin is also trying to drive the wedge between Turkey and NATO, which is a far more valuable strategic objective. That is why he is willing to overlook the shooting down of the Su-24 plane and the fact that Erdrogan is an Islamist. To Putin, NATO is more the long term and real threat. Anything that weakens NATO is welcome and he is willing to compromise or make concessions to make that happen. If Turkey leaves NATO, Putin does not have to worry about Turkey bottling up the Black sea naval forces in times of war. He hopes to see Turkey break away from NATO so he is willing to tolerate the fact that Erdrogan is an Islamist.

He wants to see USA make a strategic blunder by supporting the Kurds against Turkey and Turkey under Erdrogan gets enraged and fight back and gets either kicked out or decides to leave. That will be a real game changer.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 05 Sep 2016 00:56

So we agree on this -
Turkey is supporting radical islamists/terrorists in Syria. It has also already shot down a russian plane and killed a russian man. Putin still finds it sensible to negotiate with him.
Putin remembers the Soviet legacy but is willing to throw PKK and YPD under the bus despite their marxist leanings.
Both US and Russia are and would be willing and ready to support/collude with islamic terrorists and their supporters.

Amusingly, it is quite obvious to anyone that Erdogan is not a pawn to be played with between US/Nato and Russia, as the plane shooting incident showed. He can switch sides quite easily and is playing his own game. Also has grand delusions of Turkish greatness and leadership of islamic world. What was that saying about rearing snakes in your backyard?! What is Putin trying to do - driving wedge between US and Turkey by humoring Erdogan.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 05 Sep 2016 01:09

It is a gamble/risk to accept if you want the bigger prize which is Turkey leaving NATO.

Turkey is not actively supporting the radical Islamists/terrorists right now. That was the price to pay for being allowed to go into Syria and pound the Kurds.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 07:51

India still talks to Pakistan. ...