2024 Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls & Results

[SRajesh]

Deansji
I totally agree.
Regardless of the Rakit to Sun and beyond or MNC namdars!!
We are still an agrarian society largely as far as the Rural economy is concerned.
It is changing albeit very slowly and hence the income growth gap.
Inspite of so many agri colleges and universities our efforts to change certain parctices are not so good to bring very noticeable change in the rural income.
Apart from organic farming, niche GI certified products, Cold chain for processing and delivery, Floriculture what can we do to boost the agri income??
MSP for everything grown is that the asnwer??

[A_Gupta]

The Hindu says: The official reserves of wheat, maintained by the Food Corporation of India (FCI), have dropped 4.7 per cent to 29.91 million tonnes (mt) as of June 1 from 31.39 mt in the year-ago period. But the stockpiles of rice are higher by 21.8 per cent at 50.46 mt now against 41.42 mt in 2023.

[chetak]

And we all know how this ended

he is trying to drive a wedge between the two main parties and selectively praise those who signed the MOU with him

the cheen's utter contempt for neverwho is well known, even today

[S_Madhukar]

Our farmers and agriculture universities don’t know science and tech and will not do any extra shit. The farmers of Konkan rarely research and rely on the soil to give them cash crops like mangoes and cashews. And every year they complain about the monsoons or hot springs. Meanwhile Chinese and Thai farmers are coming out with sweeter better seedless mangoes. Looks like only engineers will save agriculture !

[A_Gupta]

Chetak ji look at this:
https://x.com/KanwalSibal/status/1807358018385838403

[chetak]

Chetak ji look at this:
https://x.com/KanwalSibal/status/1807358018385838403

very sad Gupta ji.

No telling what these political hobos and party hopping dirtbags will do next

the hans would have sent an invitation(s) to the manchurian candidate and this interloper scum seems to have latched on to it because a new tibet narrative setting process by the cheen is being urgently looked into and the need to muzzle/divert the Indian press, using congi and commie dominated media networks, and push the new narrative through cooperative political parties may be the intent

The hans are very perturbed with Modiji's new tibetan overtures and are in overdrive to squash such moves, especially when sponsored by the amrikis who have very recently introduced a new law/legislation that concerns tibet. The hans need their paid for manchurian candidate (and his commie pals yeccch uri, and the sly padre, daniel) to manage the situation in India and keep it from showing the hans in a very bad light, and that's why they have very recently dusted off and polished up the utterly idiotic and defunct panchsheel nonsense, trying to breathe new life into a long dead corpse, the panchsheel, with which they bludgeoned the not so clever neverwho in 1962 and also tarnished his halo quite a bit and no doubt hastened his departure to the nether world

neverwho fell into many cheen traps, many of which the cheen set specifically for him, and others benefitting the cheen, that neverwho set for himself, on his desperate and relentless quest for the elusive nobel. Godse had removed the only competition that neverwho thought he had

The Resolve Tibet Act enhances U.S. support for Tibet— empowering State Department officials to actively and directly counter disinformation about Tibet from the Chinese government, rejecting false claims that Tibet has been part of China since “ancient times,” pushing for negotiations without preconditions

[Vayutuvan]

organic farming,

Organic produce is a big money grab and consumers know it. Yields are low and hence one has to sell at higher prices. As you say, it is niche market. It would not increase (might even decrease) overall agri income.

[Lisa]

Does anyone have a breakdown of platform (YouTube, Twitter, Newspaper, TV etc) by age and sex so one can better understand what and how to target/invest in? Furthermore, does a similar fracture exist by political party?

Found one,

https://archive.ph/q72J0

Please see the chart

IMHO, until one does not understand which platforms are being used by whom there can be no meaningful discussion on how narratives are to be challenged.

also, from the US

https://x.com/scienceisstrat1/status/18 ... 4654035132

[nandakumar]

To the best of my knowledge there is not any body that certifies the viewership in absolute terms or demography similar to circulation numbers of print industry (ABC-Audit Bureau of Circulation). But then the print industry has at least 150 years of existence although some claim that is 400 years old! The problem is unlike print which relies on paid subscription the visual and digital media has no subscription model where viewer pays for content. Even in print more and more publications are resorting to throw-away price marketing models throwing ABC number's integrity into doubt. But post Covid as advertising for print medium began to dwindle there is some sanity in print industry about Cover Price for a copy. For example, for a Tamil Newspaper that I was subscribing since is now 2000 what was Rs 4 a copy is now vending at Rs 12/- per copy.

[vijayk]

https://x.com/Tushar15_/status/1807759480907501759
Tushar Gupta @Tushar15_
Congress' Plans For 2024-2029 Against BJP

Rahul Gandhi completed his first speech as the LoP ered on by the opposition MPs, grudgingly perhaps, given some of his utterances. Most of it was mud-slinging, but couple it with Kharge's speech in the RS, and few trends emerge.
7:53 AM · Jul 1, 2024

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1807 ... =topunroll

[A_Gupta]

This infrastructure blogger says he is not political, but had to answer Dhruv Rathee. This is a good explainer on how India's unit costs for logistics are way higher than that of a lot of the world, and how highways will help make India competitive. He also goes on to say how businesses and industry will set up within a certain radius of the highways and help India's economy grow and generate jobs.

In Hindi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFt4eRS0zLU

[Pratyush]

Dhruv Rathee is attacking highway development in India because of Rahul Gandhi's attack on highway development during MMS rule.

It's not random.

[Deans]

The Hindu says: The official reserves of wheat, maintained by the Food Corporation of India (FCI), have dropped 4.7 per cent to 29.91 million tonnes (mt) as of June 1 from 31.39 mt in the year-ago period. But the stockpiles of rice are higher by 21.8 per cent at 50.46 mt now against 41.42 mt in 2023.

This is deceptive. There's a different figure from the same source (Hindu) of 7.5 mil tons of wheat, which is closer to what I quoted.
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ec ... 064714.ece

Both figures are correct. Between Apr and June, FCI procures wheat. However, it then redistributes that wheat to the PDS.
This season they procured around 22 million tonnes, from which about 18 mil is required for the Central Govt free food scheme.
You will notice that buffer stocks, while being just above what is required, are at their lowest in 16 years.
So 7.5 mil tns is before procurement and 29.91 tns after procurement, but before distribution to the PDS.

[disha]

Emotions and ideology doesn't matter if you don't have basic skills to promote your party. I seen BJP IT cell folks stealing media edits and content from individual posters on X without giving the original posters any credit.

BJP IT Cell may not be aware of skill India program.

[fanne]

Any truth? What options does bjp has in court?

https://www.youtube.com/live/0D8qmx8sbN ... d_zYEblRg_

[vijayk]

Any truth? What options does bjp has in court?

https://www.youtube.com/live/0D8qmx8sbN ... d_zYEblRg_

unbelievable. ...

[Hriday]

......
......

An earlier post was correct in saying that the indicators were there in the 2022 UP Assembly polls. Apart from the loss of seats,
many were won by small margins. A further 1% vote share loss would have meant BJP getting 200 seats instead of 255 (out of 403).

I have been talking about rural distress in my earlier posts. Our GDP grew by 7.6% for 2023-24 beating estimates.
This was a source of great pride for govt in industry forums etc.

However, Agriculture grew by only 0.7% (lower than estimates). The North did worse than the South.
Real incomes for people involved in agriculture in 2023-24, was no different from 2019-20.
No one has won an election when most of the population have 0 income growth in 4 years. What mitigated the impact was the free
foodgrain scheme (the much derided freebies).

Manufacturing grew, but added no jobs, though govt deluded itself that it did, because the number of people enrolled in EPF grew.
It was merely labor in unorganized sector manufacturing moving to organized.

The stock market grew 29% in 2023-4 The big gainers were Ambani & Adani. They did nothing wrong, but became a proxy for inequality
of income.

Deans ji, what is the solution for this problem in the short and medium term?
More rural freebies? Is there a sustainable way?

[Deans]

I have been talking about rural distress in my earlier posts. Our GDP grew by 7.6% for 2023-24 beating estimates.
This was a source of great pride for govt in industry forums etc.

However, Agriculture grew by only 0.7% (lower than estimates). The North did worse than the South.
Real incomes for people involved in agriculture in 2023-24, was no different from 2019-20.
No one has won an election when most of the population have 0 income growth in 4 years. What mitigated the impact was the free
foodgrain scheme (the much derided freebies).

Manufacturing grew, but added no jobs, though govt deluded itself that it did, because the number of people enrolled in EPF grew.
It was merely labor in unorganized sector manufacturing moving to organized.

The stock market grew 29% in 2023-4 The big gainers were Ambani & Adani. They did nothing wrong, but became a proxy for inequality
of income.

Deans ji, what is the solution for this problem in the short and medium term?
More rural freebies? Is there a sustainable way?

While I have ranted on this, let me reiterate that I don't see Cong, I.N.D.I.A or anyone else doing a better job.
I believe I am as much a patriot and BJP supporter as anyone here and it hurts me to write this:
I don't know if there are solutions, what I think might have helped is the govt being more mindful of rural distress, rather than things that will
appeal to the urban middle class (BJP did better in cities). Specifically consider MGNREGA in UP.

Average days worked under MGNREGA was at a 4 year low in 2023-24. 50 days instead of the 100 days guaranteed, across the country.
The wage increase under MGNREGA was linked to inflation. However, this practice was stopped in 2023. The lowest wage increase was Rs 7 (3%)
in UP, which ALSO had the lowest daily wage of Rs 234, among major states, which by the Govt's own admission is not a living wage.
From 11 million people working in MGNREGA in 2020-21 in UP, only 6.8 million did so in 2023-24.
The BJP got 6.5 million fewer votes in UP this time.
The safety net of MNREGA was particularly important, as rural wage growth was lower than rural inflation for 2 consecutive years leading
up to the election. All consumer product companies reported flat rural sales in the year before the election.

If, instead of realizing this is a real problem, the govt talks about doubling farmer incomes in 5 years (the actual real growth is close to 0),
it sounds like a cruel joke. What sums it up for me, is building an expressway from Mumbai to Nagpur and losing every seat in between.

The BJP's recent meet in UP to consider poll results, mentioned candidate selection and gaffes by their candidates (like amending the constitution
but not the conspiracy theories we have discussed here)

[Hriday]

^^^^

Thank you Deans ji for the very informative post.
Any particular reason for the decline in Agri growth in UP compared to MP and WB?

The near-zero agri growth rate and heavy dilution of the MGNREGA safety net in a state like UP means Yogi is not an efficient ruler ?

I don't know much about the agri sector, but let me tell what Suraj posted in the forum on this issue several years ago.

Marginal farming is not viable for farmers and nations. It will be a drain on national resources through continuous loan waivers, MSP etc. BJP plans to urbanise the rural areas to provide non-agri employment opportunities for rural people. House, toilets, water, electricity road connectivity etc free the rural people from low productivity tasks of fetching water, firewood, farming etc and help them to take other jobs thus increasing income. Farming can be efficiently done by corporate farming with the machines on large areas.
I remember reading a report in an Indian business daily that the Gram Sadak Yojana resulted in a steep fall in poverty without any spending by govt. The road connectivity provided a lot of sustainable wealth creating opportunities in the village.

In a large state like UP, it will take time to implement the above program. May be BJP faced the dilemma of choosing to spend on rural freebies or sustainable future growth. BJP still has time to announce extra support for rural areas before the coming UP elections.

[Deans]

^^^^

Thank you Deans ji for the very informative post.
Any particular reason for the decline in Agri growth in UP compared to MP and WB?

The near-zero agri growth rate and heavy dilution of the MGNREGA safety net in a state like UP means Yogi is not an efficient ruler ?

I don't know much about the agri sector, but let me tell what Suraj posted in the forum on this issue several years ago.

Marginal farming is not viable for farmers and nations. It will be a drain on national resources through continuous loan waivers, MSP etc. BJP plans to urbanise the rural areas to provide non-agri employment opportunities for rural people. House, toilets, water, electricity road connectivity etc free the rural people from low productivity tasks of fetching water, firewood, farming etc and help them to take other jobs thus increasing income. Farming can be efficiently done by corporate farming with the machines on large areas.
I remember reading a report in an Indian business daily that the Gram Sadak Yojana resulted in a steep fall in poverty without any spending by govt. The road connectivity provided a lot of sustainable wealth creating opportunities in the village.

In a large state like UP, it will take time to implement the above program. May be BJP faced the dilemma of choosing to spend on rural freebies or sustainable future growth. BJP still has time to announce extra support for rural areas before the coming UP elections.

A point I left out earlier: Appointing Shivraj Singh as Agriculture minister, may be a tacit admission that he did a good job in rural MP (where BJP
swept) and the role is too important to be left to an inexperienced person.
Falling back into absolute poverty was prevented by freebies, which was a good thing, but perhaps not a substitute for a real job and income.
WB's GDP growth over the last 5 years was higher than India's average.

Suraj is correct. The only long term solution is to get people out of agriculture and into manufacturing. Unfortunately the proportion of people in
manufacturing /SME actually FELL between 2015 and 2023. The SME sector lost 5.4 million jobs when it should have been increasing jobs, just to
keep up with the increased number of job seekers.
Part of the reason was covid. My view is that increased imports from China contributed to this fall, I did a blogpost on it:
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/06/th ... hreat.html

There was a movement from the unorganized to organized sector, which was reflected in the number of people registered under EPF.
The govt viewed it as a sign that jobs were growing, which was only true of the organized sector.

[Hriday]

^^^
Thanks very much, Deans ji, you are providing a lot of comprehensive information. Just unbelievable for me to learn that during the Modi govt manufacturing jobs fell. I was thinking that if GDP growth is great then that will reflect in jobs also. The massive increase in mobile phone manufacturing, the successful PLI scheme for manufacturing etc created an impression that job creation was a great success. Have to learn a lot, will regularly read your blogspot from now on.

You earlier said about the over-centralisation of power with PMO and their seemingly disconnected from reality style of operations. For eg the inefficient way the Atal Tinkering Lab project was done and also their mistake in calculating the number of jobs created as you explained.

Modi is an honest and hard-working person. So is there a sabotage attempt? Any way if Modi and Yogi don't know the basic data or can't understand that rural distress is happening then there is something seriously wrong.

[Deans]

^^^
Thanks very much, Deans ji, you are providing a lot of comprehensive information. Just unbelievable for me to learn that during the Modi govt manufacturing jobs fell. I was thinking that if GDP growth is great then that will reflect in jobs also. The massive increase in mobile phone manufacturing, the successful PLI scheme for manufacturing etc created an impression that job creation was a great success. Have to learn a lot, will regularly read your blogspot from now on.

You earlier said about the over-centralisation of power with PMO and their seemingly disconnected from reality style of operations. For eg the inefficient way the Atal Tinkering Lab project was done and also their mistake in calculating the number of jobs created as you explained.

Modi is an honest and hard-working person. So is there a sabotage attempt? Any way if Modi and Yogi don't know the basic data or can't understand that rural distress is happening then there is something seriously wrong.

Anil Swarup's article (former Education and Coal secy and Chief secy UP) on PLI. It puts the numbers in perspective.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/anil-swa ... 07361-t4Cf

The govt measures job growth by data like number of people registered for Provident fund, or a survey of a sample of companies in the
organized sector. This growth looks impressive, but is coming from people moving from unorganized SME's to organized ones (paying GST & PF).

In cellphones, it is impressive that 99% of our phones are now manufactured locally. However, the value addition is just 15% (albeit up from
single digits) instead of the 40% hoped for by now. So we are basically importing Chinese components and doing screwdriver-giri here.
Import of components went up to the same extent as import of finished phones went down.
Even the 15% value addition is misleading. Imported components are under invoiced to save duty and the value addition is inflated here - part of
the extra value addition will be shown as a cost - royalty payments to the Chinese/Korean brand owner. When you sell a `made in India' phone
under PLI, the manufacturer gets an incentive on sales. Half of all PLI incentives have gone to the cellphone and IT hardware sectors.

My guess (don't have any inside dope) is the real numbers are known, but its easier to win debating points against the opposition by using figures
like cellphone manufacture and no of people in PF, to say there is no unemployment problem and hope that Modiji's charisma will get votes.
A related concern is the age of Modiji's key advisors. PK Mishra is 76. Doval is almost 80. Have they become complacent ? Do they have the same energy as they had 5 years ago ?

[Deans]

^^^

Modi is an honest and hard-working person. So is there a sabotage attempt? Any way if Modi and Yogi don't know the basic data or can't understand that rural distress is happening then there is something seriously wrong.

I do not doubt their integrity and seriousness of purpose.
I think the rural distress thing is known to Yogiji. I believe he made it a point to visit the worst hit villages during covid (when other CM's did
not move out of cities). But consider this:
The extra cost of providing 100 days of work to 11 million people in UP, under MGNREGA, instead of 50 days to 6.8 million, is 18,000 cr.
UP did not have money for that.

The food subsidy in UP from central schemes is approx. 36,000 cr. Some of the food will leak and be sold in the secondary market.
The cost of Jhewar airport in NOIDA is 30,000 crore. Was that a bigger priority than rural distress ?
If the IAF is more flexible in using Agra as a civil airport, Jhewar can be postponed for some time.
7000 cr was spent on the Lucknow metro, which impacts 1 LS seat.
Of course its not all spent in 1 year, but you get my point.

To what extent does Yogiji have a say in allocation of funds for UP ?

[SRajesh]

^^Deansji
totally agree that we need a re-look at all these figures.
Pappu and the Indi Alliacne have tapped into outside resources to number crunch and really dissect the data.
We need a serious relook at Agri and manufacture sector ASAP.
MSME minister Mr Manjhi doesn't enthuse me with much confidence and neither does the Heavy Industries minister.
Would have preferred a younger dynamic person.
Mamaji with Agriculture atleast has a track record of long term CM and has done well in MP.
The bane of screwdrivergiri is killing us be it defence sector or otherwise.
Wonder what would happen if Trump wins and he starts bring every manufacturing back to US.
Our hope of replacing China will be in serious trouble!!

[Pratyush]

https://www.business-standard.com/econo ... 897_1.html

168 million workforce added since FY18, 46.6 million in FY24: RBI data

Published on July 8th 2024.

The total number of employed people as a ratio of the total population has increased to 44.2 per cent in FY24 from 34.7 per cent in FY18, with the workforce growing by 168 million during the period at 643.3 million, according to the Reserve Bank of India's KLEMS database

[Deans]

https://www.business-standard.com/econo ... 897_1.html

168 million workforce added since FY18, 46.6 million in FY24: RBI data

Published on July 8th 2024.

The total number of employed people as a ratio of the total population has increased to 44.2 per cent in FY24 from 34.7 per cent in FY18, with the workforce growing by 168 million during the period at 643.3 million, according to the Reserve Bank of India's KLEMS database

Pratyush ji, The figures are rather misleading. Of the 46 million new jobs that were supposed to be added in the past year, only 770000 joined the
NSP (that's a proxy for the organized sector). Working unpaid on your farm also counts as jobs added.
There's a 340 page report on India from the ILO, that gives a lot more detail.

Key indicators that summarizes my view:
Between 2019 - 2022 the workforce grew 5.29%
Only 2.61% were employed in a field other than agriculture.

The % of the labor force that had regular jobs declined from 23.8% in 2019 to 21.5% in 2022. 85% of these `regular' jobs were in the
unorganized sector. The share of formal sector employment actually declined from 2019 to 2022.
What's worse was that the real wages of `regular job' holders declined between 2019 and 2022.
There's a real crisis but the govt chooses to selectively pick statistics to deny there is one.

[SRajesh]

Deansji
A little leeway in fudging the numbers is okay and probably allowed to any incumbent government
But the country is facing a serious crisis
And unless we acknowledge and address the issue we are going to be in serious trouble
Likewise the agriculture sector
Monsoon is a bit wayward and if the crop yields are low we are going to face a disaster

[Hriday]

https://www.business-standard.com/econo ... 897_1.html


Published on July 8th 2024.

The % of the labor force that had regular jobs declined from 23.8% in 2019 to 21.5% in 2022. 85% of these `regular' jobs were in the
unorganized sector. The share of formal sector employment actually declined from 2019 to 2022.
What's worse was that the real wages of `regular job' holders declined between 2019 and 2022.
There's a real crisis but the govt chooses to selectively pick statistics to deny there is one.

Deans ji, do you have a Twitter account?
If you have a catchy, easy to read summary of the faults of Modi govt with links to the detailed description given in your blogspot; then your posts will get more popularity. I know the danger that it could be misused by opposition. But any alternative to make BJP leadership know the truth?

[Yogi_G]

We need a Hindutva alternative - some party which is more khattar than BJP and more on reforms than Modi ji. The discourse needs to shift to BJP vs this alternative party with each side trying to outdo the other in terms of Hindu causes and development efforts. We dont need just Hindu causes alone, we need development and reforms to go hand in hand. 2029 should see a AAP style new party build outmanouvering BJP with some BJP rebels taking the helm. Hindutva politics should become mainstream and the minority appeasement a fringe element.

[KL Dubey]

The % of the labor force that had regular jobs declined from 23.8% in 2019 to 21.5% in 2022. 85% of these `regular' jobs were in the
unorganized sector. The share of formal sector employment actually declined from 2019 to 2022.
What's worse was that the real wages of `regular job' holders declined between 2019 and 2022.
There's a real crisis but the govt chooses to selectively pick statistics to deny there is one.

Deans ji, do you have a Twitter account?
If you have a catchy, easy to read summary of the faults of Modi govt with links to the detailed description given in your blogspot; then your posts will get more popularity. I know the danger that it could be misused by opposition. But any alternative to make BJP leadership know the truth?

The period between 2019 and 2022 was just very slightly messed up by a little virus from china. Quoting these figures seems almost irrelevant, and that too without context/comparison to states in which BJP did well (or swept).

Before jumping to conclusions, one needs to also look at the "recovery" in 2023, 2024, and 2025 at least.

The haste to criticize the NDA/Modi sarkar is - in my opinion - mostly counterproductive.

Savvy politicians are closely connected to the grassroots (since their number one priority is to get re-elected). So, I think they know the true reasons behind the seat losses in LS 2024. We should hope that those in the know will get listened to within the BJP. If not, then even the gods cannot help the BJP and the nation.

I truly doubt whether "second-guess statistics" will help.

[KL Dubey]

https://x.com/Tushar15_/status/1807759480907501759
Tushar Gupta @Tushar15_

Infrastructure (like roads, highways, etc) is literally the "way out" of rural/agricultural poverty. The solution for rural distress is not to keep more people performing agriculture - instead it is to get them into more productive work whatever that might be (salaried/gig/entrepreneur). Then agriculture itself can be consolidated and made more technologically effective.

[Pratyush]

We need a Hindutva alternative - some party which is more khattar than BJP and more on reforms than Modi ji. The discourse needs to shift to BJP vs this alternative party with each side trying to outdo the other in terms of Hindu causes and development efforts. We dont need just Hindu causes alone, we need development and reforms to go hand in hand. 2029 should see a AAP style new party build outmanouvering BJP with some BJP rebels taking the helm. Hindutva politics should become mainstream and the minority appeasement a fringe element.

Hindutva votes have maxed out. The only thing that adds to that vote is the value of development. If you try to take hindutva votes. Then you are also weakening development alternative.

[KL Dubey]

Most economies suffered a rout in the pandemic, with many still struggling with the effects, compounded further by wars. Most governments did not survive the pandemic and failed to get re-elected. It is a testament to Modi that his popularity/trust amongst citizens is head and shoulders above anyone else. The NDA sarkar - and the nation - survived the pandemic as well as the onslaught of the global and domestic BIFs...but with a few bruises and scars. We need to keep moving forward, there is a limit to looking back.

The above is what is called "context", which is important to define and understand before launching pet theories.

[Yogi_G]

Nobody is gunning against Modi apart from the BIF. The alternative in the common man's mind is still Rahul Gandhi. We need to replace him with someone who can out-Modi Sri. Modi in terms of vision and development. The only person I see who can come close is Sri. Chandrababu Naidu but he's a spent cause without nation wide appeal. Come Virus or recession, the fight needs to be between Hindutva parties and not a Hindutva vs others. Worst case is that a secular party plays king maker aka Karnataka (JDS) but thats far better than someone like RG coming to power!

[ricky_v]

We need a Hindutva alternative - some party which is more khattar than BJP and more on reforms than Modi ji. The discourse needs to shift to BJP vs this alternative party with each side trying to outdo the other in terms of Hindu causes and development efforts. We dont need just Hindu causes alone, we need development and reforms to go hand in hand. 2029 should see a AAP style new party build outmanouvering BJP with some BJP rebels taking the helm. Hindutva politics should become mainstream and the minority appeasement a fringe element.

your plan would be feasible if we had proportional representation as in the european states who get allocated seats in the assembly based on the voting percentage, and that way groups for particular causes would have to come together to work in an alliance, a truer representative of democracy than the 2 party system that we currently have

as it currently stands, nobody cares about hindu agendas and very few care about development; you want to win elections in india, rock up to the voter about 3 months before polling and treat them like the beggar that most like to behave as, magnanimously inform them that they would get free this, free that, if you want further vote cutting, target voters by different demographics, and voila.. you are the winner...congrats, i guess

forming parties for ideologies will gain you bupkiss in indian elections in the current day and the invisible hand of the political market will ensure course correction to arrive at "like population as ruler"

there are 2 steps out of this mess:
1) step 1: initiate seat reforms as is planned, divide seats so that the sub altern and the minority who ghettoise can no longer influence most seats

2) step 2, the most important step, change the first pass by post system, amend it to proportional representation, that way our country may still eke out a few more years before the short sighted and the blind eventually sell it off bit by bit, be assured that this is inevitable, we are only kicking the can down the road

[KL Dubey]

We need a Hindutva alternative - some party which is more khattar than BJP and more on reforms than Modi ji. The discourse needs to shift to BJP vs this alternative party with each side trying to outdo the other in terms of Hindu causes and development efforts. We dont need just Hindu causes alone, we need development and reforms to go hand in hand. 2029 should see a AAP style new party build outmanouvering BJP with some BJP rebels taking the helm. Hindutva politics should become mainstream and the minority appeasement a fringe element.

1. That kind of process has already happened, i.e. the rise of the BJP in the 1980s and 90s by utilizing the (small) core Hindutva vote and bringing others who were more "moderate" also into that fold. Now the BJP has become a huge umbrella party that caters to the core Hindutva base (which is still small, maybe 20-25% voters) plus a broader range of groups benefited by economic development and social welfare/justice.

2. No point breaking this up. Your plan would not work in the neat and tidy way presented above. Firstly, there is not enough of a Hindutva core vote to support two large parties. Second, inevitably the more "moderate" party will go searching for other votebanks, again inevitably leading to more appeasement politics. That is what politicians do everywhere. Back to square one.

3. Instead it needs strengthening and better coordination/strategy. I will not use "right/center/left" terms since they are irrelevant to Bharat. Instead the BJP and the broader NDA must have a properly coordinated set of policies that are a judicious mix of "pro-Hindu/pro-Sanatan" and "pro-nation/pro-all". Some of these may be labeled by the opposition as "anti-minority" but that will have to be managed. Importantly, the sarkar must not fall into the trap of mollifying the opposition by introducing any policies that are "pro-abrahamic clergy/elites".

4. I do think the Modi sarkar 3.0 is a good canvas to take on this challenge. I also believe (and hope) Modi/Shah will turn this into a new opportunity to strengthen rashtravadi grip over the Bharatiya polity, society, military, and economy.

[Deans]

Deans ji, do you have a Twitter account?
If you have a catchy, easy to read summary of the faults of Modi govt with links to the detailed description given in your blogspot; then your posts will get more popularity. I know the danger that it could be misused by opposition. But any alternative to make BJP leadership know the truth?

The period between 2019 and 2022 was just very slightly messed up by a little virus from china. Quoting these figures seems almost irrelevant, and that too without context/comparison to states in which BJP did well (or swept).

Before jumping to conclusions, one needs to also look at the "recovery" in 2023, 2024, and 2025 at least.

The haste to criticize the NDA/Modi sarkar is - in my opinion - mostly counterproductive.

Savvy politicians are closely connected to the grassroots (since their number one priority is to get re-elected). So, I think they know the true reasons behind the seat losses in LS 2024. We should hope that those in the know will get listened to within the BJP. If not, then even the gods cannot help the BJP and the nation.

I truly doubt whether "second-guess statistics" will help.

Responding to both posts:

I don't discuss politics on social media, or any forum except this. I'm not passionate about politics and there is nothing new I have to contribute.
On social media like Twitter, any idiot with an opinion can express himself, in the form of hateful remarks and they frequently do.
I don't intend to expose anyone's faults, rather contribute to a sensible debate. There is actually a blog series exposing all the govt's faults, (publicpolicy.substack.com) but it is not well argued and I can find fault with most points.
The problem with such blogs is they have a clear bias.

Dubeyji, you are correct. I think we are making similar points in different ways.
No side has clear stats on job creation and perhaps it is deliberate. Each side will choose the stats they want, but if the BJP believes it created
46 million jobs last year, I'd like to have what they are smoking.

Covid clearly hit millions of job and NO ruling party has been returned to power with a higher majority after covid. My view is the BJP should
be mindful of that, rather than claim performance that voters might disagree with. The broad point I'm making about employment, is that there is a
shift from the unorganized to the organized sector, so this is not creation of `new' jobs. We have not been able to move people from agriculture
to manufacturing (not even the unorganised sector) and until that happens, social security like MGNREGA are important.

[Deans]

This is an eye opening presentation for me, on a major area of failure of the govt and why it may be going wrong in areas we think it
is succeeding in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsI1I_bf65A

Basu and Dalal (they exposed the Harshad Mehta scam back in 1991) are the country's best financial journalists and their work is non political.
I have spent some time checking their figures, which are correct and this presentation is an easy way to understand it.
In summary:

We are spending a lot more on infrastructure than in the past. Capex: GDP went from 1.7% (2013) to 3.2% (2023)
However, project implementation (in time and cost overruns) is as bad as before - despite govt putting in place IT enabled tools, cutting
through red tape, monitoring by PMO etc.
In simple terms we have already lost over 550,000 crores through cost overruns (from the govt's estimate).
A pro govt source: Swarajya, also lists the cost at 560,000 crore (which is growing daily).

The biggest sources of cost and time overruns, were rail and road projects.
BJP states have done as badly as non BJP. The cost overrun is from ministries many believe to be run by the most competent ministers.

Infrastructure spend is important and the govt is right is focusing on it, though the vote gains will be deferred. The problem is when high
waste from cost overruns leads to reduction in the budget for other poverty reduction schemes like MGNREGA.
MGNREGA budget was cut from 110000 cr (2021-22), 98000 cr (Mar 22-23) to 60,000 cr (23-24). A lot of last year's 60,000 cr went to unpaid
wages from previous years. If the railways had completed projects as per its own estimates, there would have been enough money to finance
MGNREGA at 2021-22 levels - it should be higher because of inflation.
Even when things are done on schedule, one needs to question priorities. The Lucknow metro (which affects 1 LS seat) cost 7000 cr.

Financing the cost overruns also crowds out other borrowers from banks and pushes up interest rates. The NHAI's debt rose from 24,000 cr
in 2015 to 340,000 cr today.

KPMG submitted a report in 2018 on what the problem were. It does not seem anything has improved as per the ministry's tracker.

It is discomforting to me, since the biggest criticism of the UPA govt, apart from corruption, was policy paralysis, resulting in delayed
projects. The NDA has done no better:
UPA at the end of its term had 749 running infrastructure projects of 150 cr+ The NDA today has 1443 running projects.
Cost overrun for UPA was 19.9% For NDA it is 19% but the absolute cost overrun for NDA is much more, because the spends under NDA doubled
(after adjusting for inflation).
For both UPA and NDA only 25% of projects were completed on time and within budget

[SRajesh]

^^Deansji
If the two biggest overruns are Road and Rail projects:
As a Mango-man to me it suggests : main factor Land or green clearance for Land based project!
or is it the natural calamity(a la Hand of God)
If its Land then is it related to acquisition of Land or is it the NGO's or interested parties going to court and getting a stay!
Because the overruns are a general malaise what is the answer for this
How can governments overcome this issue??

[AmolJ]

^^Deansji:
Cost Overruns for Roads and Highways are less as compared to Railway, NPCIL, Hydro and Waterway Projects.
NHAI's debt are increased as No Budgetary Support was provided to them and were raising money from Bonds.
Also they Land Acquisition costs are also increased 8 folds and thanks to UPA II for making that change and NDA has to go with it.

Please refer this for Govts plan wrt to NHAI - https://www.livemint.com/news/india/cen ... 55346.html

NHAI is not allocating the tenders till required land is acquired. It may have reduced the cost overruns for them, which is not in the case of Railways.
I think in case of Railways, there should be different entities for operations and building the infrastructure. Just like DFCs operations.

Coming to Basu and Dalal, they are hand in gloves with Khan market cabal and not 100% impartial.