Managing Chinese Threat

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 28 Oct 2010 14:00

There is this classic chinese movie "Hero". In this movie the Qin-Chinese emperor is sought to be murdered by a vengeful woman, "Flying Snow". This woman, i.e. "Flying Snow" takes the help of a powerful warrior, called "Broken Sword". "Flying Snow" and "Broken Sword" are in love with each other, but when "Broken Sword" comes closer to killing the qin emperor, he hesitates and does not kill the Qin emperor.

Later on at the end of the movie, we come to know "Broken Sword" did not kill the emperor, when he had the chance, because he believed that the emperor would "unite ALL under the heaven" and bring an end to anarchy or bring order to the known world. Despite the fact that there are people who don't want to be united with Qin force ably, this "uniting" force ably is still portrayed as a noble thing.

The movie has stunning visuals, beautiful acting by its cast and amazing cinematography. It can be seen as a metaphor for the chinese thought and view point even today.

After reading TonyMontana's post, I began wondering even after hundred of years of such dictatorial rulers, it may be considered normal in china what is considered reprehensible else where. And despite suffering Nippon atrocities in 1930-40 all the china learned was, that it had to do the same as what nippon attempted. There was this post, which I read a few years back, which said that China's attempted modernization, was driven part by jealousy and part by fear of what japan had achieved post WW-II. Then I dismissed it as a talk by lunatic fringe. Just I had dismissed the talk by some Chinese posters, which said that the entire Russian Far East is actually chinese territory, which the Chinese should attempt to take over, if not by an outright force than by insidious immigration.

niran · Post by **niran** » 28 Oct 2010 14:36

TonyMontana wrote:
That's one way to look at it. Or you can look at it as the Peaceful Consolidation of The East Asian Continent.

Mistah Montana, i find your phrase to be extremely distasteful and full of ignorant "frog in the well" view for your kind information, the ASEAN perceive China
as a threat, and hence there shall be not peaceful integration, so please next time you type the name among ASEAN countries do be correct with the correctness of the reality.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Oct 2010 14:39

X-Posting from Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

Peaceful Consolidation of Indian Subcontinent: Making the Case

The biggest threats to India come from China and Islamic Radicalism. China has penetrated into the Indian Subcontinent and is using the reflexive anti-Indianism in India's neighbors in the Subcontinent to

Steadily Increase its strategic presence in the Indian Subcontinent.
Instigate and agitate the various groups in India's periphery to become aggressive and provoke India.
Provoke India to retaliate against its neighbors.
Do propaganda and portray India's retaliation as India's bullying ways
Use the ensuing anti-India wrath to set up India's neighbors as PRC's frontline states against India.
Use Maoism in Nepal and East India, and Bangladeshi animosity against India to cut off India's Northeast from India, and occupying it.
Lead to further break up of India with Kashmir going to Pakistan, and creating an independent Maoist-run East India, supported by PRC.
Neutralizing India

The latent anti-Indianism, and a perceived need to balance India in India's neighborhood leaves open a doorway for China to break in and smuggle all the machinery into the room to subvert and ultimately undo India.

Secondly China would use its strategic alliance with Islamism to undermine both India and the West, Pakistani Army providing a suitable go between to the Islamists.

So China is creating a Chakravyuh against India. In order for India to destroy this Chakravyuh, India would have to devise a new strategy to bolster its strength as well as neutralize China's moves in the Indian Subcontinent.

India can go for a muscular approach, and timely subdue any sources of instability and locations of China's potential forwarding bases - Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, etc, but the danger is that India would then exhaust all our resources and strength for that purpose, leaving us more prone to direct and terrorist attacks from Pakistan and direct attacks from China. Also it would give rise to a high level of animosity against India in India's neighborhood, which would then fully align with China against India. Also India would have lost all goodwill, and any chance of rehabilitating her image. It is very difficult to attack another country one day and the next day to plead with it for understanding of India's national interests. It would take more than a generation for any Indian neighbor to forgive India, even if it is they who asked for it. In the meantime China would have long clipped India's wings and put down any chance of India posing China a challenge to its hegemony over Asia.

Also any aggressions of India into its neighborhood, say in Chittagong, or in Nepal would bog down India in a war of attrition. We would have trouble keeping the land in our control against guerrilla attacks all supported and financed by China. This would actually make China's work all the easier. So if we cannot be 100% sure of success and have calculated the fallout and decided it to be not substantive, then it would make sense to take a muscular approach. I have gone in into such scenarios earlier in other threads.

At the moment India has her reputation among her neighbors of being a more or less peaceful neighbor. The latent animosity against India is less the work of India or any true grievances, but simply due to the fact that we present to them a very imposing and intimidating view due to our size. The reasons the neighbors give for their feelings against India can be challenged and India has good arguments. Any outward aggression by India would harden these feelings by leaps and bounds, and also give them real arguments for their existence.

So India's reputation is a valuable commodity and we should not gamble with it for small and controversial gains.

A peaceful consolidation of the Indian Subcontinent offers India an alternative to the muscular approach in the region. It can deliver India the necessary defensive and offensive strength to take on China, as well as a slew of other advantages. More importantly it plays to India's strengths. It is a world in which Indian leaders can do what they do best - talk, negotiate and build coalitions, and still deliver the goods. It can be done without firing a single bullet or earning the ill-will of others.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Oct 2010 14:40

X-Posting from Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

Peaceful Consolidation of Indian Subcontinent: Summary

We have talked about the dangers that India faces from China, and how our neighborhood is vulnerable to China's advances.

Throughout the various posts, the proposal has been that we consolidate the Indian Subcontinent peacefully, in a somewhat similar way as Europe, but go much further in establishing a true political union.

Due to a unification of India with Bangladesh, for example, there will be a lot more Muslims living in India, and this increase in Muslim population needs to be managed to ensure that the Indian ship stays afloat and keeps its course. Many challenges would arise in dealing with Indic-Muslim Relations. A new understanding would have to be reached between the Indics and the Muslims. We should systematically support liberal and reform-minded Muslims. Perhaps the Bangladeshi merger with India can even be beneficial and useful in reforming the thought process of the Indian Muslims.

An integration of the Indian Subcontinent would help India overcome the Chinese challenge but would also bring benefits to other countries of the subcontinent. Due to this integration process, India would have the most Muslims in the world, which would have negative but also positive consequences to it.

Such an enterprise is not only an imperative considering the situation in Asia, but it is also doable. In order for the enterprise to succeed except for Pakistan, India would need to take all others along. There is a perception of security when in a group.

India can opt for a federal structure, already known and tested by us. In order to solve the political problems arising due to migration between the regions, especially from Bangladesh, as well as to solve the current problem of illegal immigration, India can opt for separate Electoral Zones. Through the Peaceful Consolidation of the Indian Subcontinent there is a possibility to unravel India's enemy to the West - Pakistan, without resorting to war and without needing to accept radical Muslims into the Indian fold. Also we need not wait for an eternity as we can speed the developments there.

We should not lose time in preparing ourselves and our neighborhood to meet the challenge posed by China.

In the process, India would have become bigger and stronger.

Peaceful Consolidation of Indian Subcontinent
Table of Contents:

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 28 Oct 2010 21:00

Can you create a blog

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Oct 2010 21:29

Acharya garu,

Thanks for the suggestion.

At the moment, I do not have plans to put any stuff on a blog. This may change in the future.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 29 Oct 2010 01:43

chandrabhan wrote:
Tonyji,
For all your gyan and bluster on China, I have a small question. When will CPC stop creating these myths about chinese empire? There was no such thing as empire. The so called empire existed behind that wall onlee. The current regime has extended the boundaries some thousands of miles ahead of that wall.

Creating these stories of mythical empire which was nowhere outside that wall, you are creating an army of delusional citizens opiated on these myths.

You misunderstood me. I think. The empire I was refering to was the Qing Dynasty.

Christopher Sidor wrote: Peacefull ??
One serious question, what exactly will be the boundary of this so called "East Asian Continent"? Or will it be an ever expanding entity?

Well. It is peaceful because it will be billed as a political union of equals. No force will be used. Voluntary onlee.

Christopher Sidor wrote: And if the world, including China, did not take it too lightly the ever expanding Nippon or Nazi or British empires, why would the world, excluding China, take this so called "Peaceful Consolidation of The East Asian Continent" any lightly?

Not if the countries in the union join willingly.

Christopher Sidor wrote: After reading TonyMontana's post, I began wondering even after hundred of years of such dictatorial rulers, it may be considered normal in china what is considered reprehensible else where. And despite suffering Nippon atrocities in 1930-40 all the china learned was, that it had to do the same as what nippon attempted. There was this post, which I read a few years back, which said that China's attempted modernization, was driven part by jealousy and part by fear of what japan had achieved post WW-II. Then I dismissed it as a talk by lunatic fringe. Just I had dismissed the talk by some Chinese posters, which said that the entire Russian Far East is actually chinese territory, which the Chinese should attempt to take over, if not by an outright force than by insidious immigration.

The Chinese the Japanese killed are not even in the rounding error of the Chinese the Chinese killed. Think on that. Then think about why we value stability.

niran wrote: Mistah Montana, i find your phrase to be extremely distasteful and full of ignorant "frog in the well" view for your kind information, the ASEAN perceive China
as a threat, and hence there shall be not peaceful integration, so please next time you type the name among ASEAN countries do be correct with the correctness of the reality.

Of cause. But remember, this will be done in response to India's Peaceful Consolidation of Indian Subcontinent. We will also be making the case, so to speak.

Sidhant · Post by **Sidhant** » 29 Oct 2010 02:19

The peaceful consolidation of East Asia will be as peaceful as the Peaceful rise of China we are seeing currently

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 29 Oct 2010 05:30

Sidhant wrote:The peaceful consolidation of East Asia will be as peaceful as the Peaceful rise of China we are seeing currently

Then we can all breathe a sign of relief, considering there has been minimal, if any, casualties due to the rise of China the past 30 years.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 29 Oct 2010 09:43

X posting from the PRC thread.

PM meets Wen; will he raise stapled visas issue?

Yesterdays headline was World has enough space for growth ambitions of India, China: PM

The headline says it all.

When the opposite party is not interested in having just relationship with you, then expressing this fond hope only serves to show your weakness. The only way to deal with the PRC at the moment is to impose full scale trade embargo on it. Just ban all trade.

That nation is questioning Indias teratorial integrety and yet Indian business are signing mega deals with them. That must end. The PRC must be made to feel economic pain. That may be one of the few ways of altering the behaviour of that nation.

naren · Post by **naren** » 29 Oct 2010 11:06

^^^ Economic deals have their utility. The more China gets drunk with the Indian market, the more leverage India has in future.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 29 Oct 2010 11:49

Naren,

The Existing industrial capabilities of PRC are preventing the creation of capability in India along with the required jobs. So the trade with PRC is hurting us in two diffrent ways.

1 Jobs are being exported. (Om baba logic

)
2 Indian money is leaving the country. considering the trade imbalances.

So restore balance and end all trade with PRC

JMT.

naren · Post by **naren** » 29 Oct 2010 12:23

^^^

Prevents creation of capability - that is true.

1. We dont have those jobs in the first place ! Besides, the kind of industrial activity China is engaged in, is heavily polluting. It has long term consequences (in terms of health of the active/retired work force, clean up costs etc). Another time bomb waiting to explode in China. Do we want to bring that kind of shiite to our land ?

2. So is money flowing back into India from other countries. Globalization is bilateral. Swings both ways.

("multilateral" may be more appropriate, but hey, snuck in for the gay joke

)

Despite the trade imbalance, Indian economy has been showing high growth rates, next only to China's, and still moving forward. I dont understand how the skewed trade relationship with China actually impacts the economy severely. I'm not an econ expert. So quantifiably showing how much of Indian economy is affected by trade deals with China is mucho appreciated. Feel free to continue in T&E threads if OT here.

I do see that economy can be used towards political leverage. Point in case is the whining when GOI banned Huawei/ZTE.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 29 Oct 2010 12:23

more and more manufacturing will migrate to india over the coming decades, particularly auto and possibly aerospace, and if we play the japanese card right, significant levels of consumer electronics
china's current advantage is not necessarily sustainable

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 29 Oct 2010 12:25

Underground facilites in Tibet, Yunaan, Chengdu, around Lhasa

WIll India be able to surmount this infrastructure to free Tibet in future

chandrabhan · Post by **chandrabhan** » 29 Oct 2010 13:04

TonyMontana wrote:
chandrabhan wrote:
Tonyji,
For all your gyan and bluster on China, I have a small question. When will CPC stop creating these myths about chinese empire? There was no such thing as empire. The so called empire existed behind that wall onlee. The current regime has extended the boundaries some thousands of miles ahead of that wall.

Creating these stories of mythical empire which was nowhere outside that wall, you are creating an army of delusional citizens opiated on these myths.
You misunderstood me. I think. The empire I was refering to was the Qing Dynasty.

Christopher Sidor wrote: Peacefull ??
One serious question, what exactly will be the boundary of this so called "East Asian Continent"? Or will it be an ever expanding entity?

Tonyji,
Pardon me for saying so putting up italian maps of 1682 showing some areas a being ruled by some chinese races prove nothing. Let me put an alternate claim. Hindu kings ruled the current day Chengdu region till late 8th century AD. post that most of them started turning Buddhist. Since the Licchavi republics were part of modern day Bihar(Indian state) I will start claiming all the buddhist nations for India.

Afterall Kingdoms can have any basis - Racial similarity(Tribal kith and kin), Territorial suzerenity and off course the kingdom of spiritual and religious philosophy (Ask the Ummah brothers and Commies).

Please return the Chengdu military region land and off course North Arunachal. Actually the Buddhism influence has far longer life than dynasty - QING or LING.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 29 Oct 2010 13:15

^^^
Come down guys. I was trying to point out the hypocrisy of the whole Peaceful Consolidation of Indian Continent in another thread.

This is how that's gonna be view by anyone else in Aisa. If you think Vietnam and other ASEAN nations are gonna welcome an Indian Union, you're dreaming.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 29 Oct 2010 13:45

naren wrote:^^^

2. So is money flowing back into India from other countries. Globalization is bilateral. Swings both ways. ("multilateral" may be more appropriate, but hey, snuck in for the gay joke )

I do see that economy can be used towards political leverage. Point in case is the whining when GOI banned Huawei/ZTE.

Hey,

If the trade is in balance then i see no Issues with the it. The problem comes when there is massive imbalance ie export 1 re and import 5 re then in effect you are sending 4 rupees outside he country. IOW you are importing poverty and exporting wealth.

Moreover, when the PRC is acting the way it is then it must be hurt. If that means that economic warfare then so be it.

JMT.

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 29 Oct 2010 13:48

Pratyush wrote:
Moreover, when the PRC is acting the way it is then it must be hurt. If that means that economic warfare then so be it.

Spoken like a man that holds all the cards and calls all the shots. Reality might not agree.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 29 Oct 2010 13:50

you see Tony, here's the thing. we don't want political union with vietnam. we are happy to coexist with our cultural similarities. the indian nation is geographically bound, but our culture spreads much much wider
quite the opposite in the case of the chinese state

TonyMontana · Post by **TonyMontana** » 29 Oct 2010 14:06

Lalmohan wrote: we are happy to coexist with our cultural similarities.

But this is exactly how the Chinese thinks. Same currency? Check! Same language? Check! China is technically what the Indic Union would look like. Think about this statement.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 29 Oct 2010 15:26

TonyMontana wrote:
Spoken like a man that holds all the cards and calls all the shots. Reality might not agree.

Do you have any idea what happned when Huwai was blacklisted by the DOT.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 29 Oct 2010 18:48

TonyMontana wrote:
Lalmohan wrote: we are happy to coexist with our cultural similarities.
But this is exactly how the Chinese thinks. Same currency? Check! Same language? Check! China is technically what the Indic Union would look like. Think about this statement.

No, that cannot be! Is the "culture" of China "similar" to that of "Tibet" or "Uyghurs" or "Mongols"? Do Chinese think the "same way", and it is not your personal claim? if it was and is similar - why the need to so actively intervene in the cultural life of Tibetans or Uyghurs for example? Why do you need to select and appoint the "religious leaders" from Beijing's decisionmaking - like say the supposed "Chinese" head of Roman Catholics in China - if you are "culturally" similar? Why have you destroyed the monasteries of Buddhists and jailed and killed and tortured them and destroyed their texts and cleaned out the Potala Palace - which was the spiritual centre of Tibetan cultural life to a large extent?

What is the compulsion if any on repeating the general dumb phraseology of lies of the communist party - blindly and persisting in that? Surely you realize that repeating does not cut ice with us here once we have logically dissected it!

You have claimed that this is how "Chinese" think! Once again you are claiming what the communist party claims - that what it says is how the "Chinese" thinks. In the absence of any allowance of dissident voices to come out and be represented in the open media accessible to the outside world, in the absence of any electoral representation, stop claiming that what you claim is the voice of the "Chinese".

I have never called you a drone or a communist stooge, and I never use disparaging shortening of China or Chinese to denote someone of Chinese descent. But if you go on making such blanket statements on behalf of all Chinese in the absence of alternative verification mechanisms (if you notice - it is indeed possible for India) in support of the reality of such claims - I will be forced to conclude that you are batting on behalf of the Communist Party of China.

That in itself will be interesting as a conclusion - since it may mean that you are somehow under compulsion to do so with "dependence" factors or "coercion/hostage" factors. Or that you have been set up by one of the agencies under CPC (which is virtually also the gov as well as the army) that are reaching out to foreign spaces. Yes there are ways and means to smoke that out and it will be highly enjoyable. Just a cautionary note - CPC itself may not be as monolithic as you have tried to portray, and there could be elements among your CPC itself that could help in the smoking out. Cheers!

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 29 Oct 2010 18:54

actually i think tony is in fact 4 people doing 4 hr shifts with 2 controllers/handlers and 48 research assistants. we are being mapped in real time and will shortly receive service denial attacks

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 29 Oct 2010 19:54

Do not bhaanda phod just yet.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 29 Oct 2010 20:13

I was in China and could not access BRF. The site was blocked.

Juggi G · Post by **Juggi G** » 29 Oct 2010 21:37

Forget String of Pearls ! India Thrives in East Asia

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 29 Oct 2010 22:15

Same language? Linguistic diversity in China is quite high. Mutually unintelligible 'versions'/'dialects' etc, notwithstanding same character set.

Juggi G · Post by **Juggi G** » 29 Oct 2010 23:03

India Today » The Big Story
The ChiPak Threat

Sandeep Unnithan
October 23, 2010

A Detailed Study carried out by the Indian Air Force was submitted to the Ministry of Defence (MoD) specifying Two Contingencies.

The First, a Full Scale War against Pakistan while Adopting a Dissuasive Posture against China. For this, a Force of 44 Squadrons is Required.

The Second Contingency sees A Simultaneous Conflict with China and Pakistan with the Capability to Hold Pakistan and Defend against China, Requires a Force of 55 Combat Squadrons."

This Stark Assessment comes from the MoD's Eleventh Plan, 2007-2012. This Secret Document, a Five-Year Acquisition Roadmap for the Defence Forces now with India Today Illustrates the Ultimate Nightmare of Indian Strategic Planners : A Simultaneous Attack by China and Pakistan along the Western, Northern and North-Eastern Borders. A Concerted Multi-Front Air-Land Battle over 7,000-km that Stretches the Indian armed Forces Thin and Potentially Threaten to Sever Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and the North-east.

This is What the Eleventh Plan Outlines for Meeting this New Threat :-

• One Mountain Strike Corps Headquarters with 4,000 Support Troops.

• Two Mountain Divisions with 32,000 Troops.

• One Armoured Brigade with 3,000 Troops and 135 Tanks.

• One Amphibious Brigade with 3,500 Soldiers.

• Raising a Third Artillery Division with around 180 Guns.

• Prepare the Indian Army for High Intensity War against a Nuclear-Biological-Chemical (NBC) Backdrop by Developing Capabilities to Withstand NBC Attacks and Remain Battleworthy to Fight Efficiently in a Contaminated Environment.

• One Nuclear-Powered Attack Submarine or SSN (Akula-2 INS Chakra being leased from Russia in 2011. Second SSN in the Twelfth Plan).

From the Karakoram ranges to the Himalayas, India is being slowly encircled in a new strategic partnership between Beijing and Islamabad that could well be called the 'ChiPak' axis. It is now an Overtly Nuclear Alliance, Boosted through Clandestine Transfers of Cruise and Ballistic Missiles Technology, Nuclear Warheads and the Possibility of concerted military action. Completing India's strategic encirclement is the 'String of Pearls', a network of Chinese ports and facilities in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

In his Raksha Mantri's directives of 2008, a classified set of orders issued to the armed forces every five years, Defence Minister A.K. Antony asked the forces to prepare for a two-front war. "Logically, a 'two-front' strategy comprises first knocking Pakistan down by a blow from a Cold Start and then transferring the main effort to the relatively slower paced, but more portentous conflict in the eastern Himalayas," says Ali Ahmed, an analyst with the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses. Terming Pakistan and China 'two irritants', Army Chief General V.K. Singh said the terror infrastructure across the western border and Beijing's rising military prowess were a worry for India.

The Scale of the ChiPak Alliance could Prove to be More than just an Irritant. The Apogee of their Nuclear Ties was Revealed to the World in January 2004 in Sartorial Fashion: Two Plastic Bags from Good Looks Fabrics and Tailors, Islamabad stuffed with Chinese Uranium-Based Nuclear Weapon Blueprints. These Designs Sold to Libya by Rogue Scientist A.Q. Khan were Evidence of the Han Paternity of the World's First Islamic Bomb . A Nuclear Capability that has Allowed Pakistan to Counterbalance India by using Terror as an Instrument of State Policy.

Adding to India's Worries of Strategic Encirclement is the Use of Coordinated ChiPak Diplomatic Pressure on J&K.

Satellite Images obtained this month by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security show Pakistan has completed Khushab 2 & 3, Three Plutonium Production Reactors Built with Chinese Assistance, Marking a Generational Leap from a Uranium to a Plutonium Bomb Line.
A Bulletin of Atomic Scientists report estimates Pakistan could already have between 70-90 nuclear weapons compared to India's 60-80 and had produced enough fissile material to make another 90 nuclear weapons. (China is estimated to have 240 nuclear weapons).

Each of these Reactors could Produce Enough Plutonium for between 40 and 50 Bombs each Year. The New Plutonium Bomb Line could Improve the Quality and Quantity of Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal which will Arm a New Series of Missiles under Production. The Fateh Jang Missile Factory, 50 km west of Islamabad, Produces the Shaheen 1 and 2 Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles, Derived from the Chinese M-9 and M-18 missiles and the strategic 500-km range Babar Cruise Missile which are to be Tipped with these New Plutonium Weapons.

The Himalayas AFlame

India's New Battle Precis Factors in a Two-Front War with China-Pakistan. Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal, Director of the Indian Army's Centre for Land Warfare Studies, says There is a 70 to 80 per cent probability of the next war being in the Mountains and a 60 per cent Probability it will be Confined there.

Three Probable Scenarios :-

FORWARD DEPLOYMENT : In case of War with One, the Side Not in the Conflict, either Pakistan or China, Occupies Forward Positions along the Border Freezing the Movement of India's Dual-Tasked Divisions in the West and East. This Imposes Serious Restrictions on the Indian Military Plan.

AGGRESSIVE PATROLLING : A Stage Higher. Side not in Conflict Clashes with Indian Patrols. Will again have the Effect of Tying Down Indian Reserves (the Dual-Tasked Divisions).

FULL SCALE WAR : Both China and Pakistan Launch Multiple Attacks on India. The Least Likely Scenario but One which Cannot be Ruled Out by the Indian Armed Forces.

"The ChiPak Relationship is the First and Oldest Proliferation Relationship, a Reward for Pakistan Supporting Mao at the UN at a Time when the US Demanded all Nations Support Chiang Kai-Shek. What Followed was Limitless Aid, Without Strings, Proffered Especially in the Military and Nuclear Arenas," says Adrian M. Levy, co-author of Deception: Pakistan, the United States, and the Secret Trade in Nuclear Weapons.

Adding to India's Worries of Strategic Encirclement is the Application of Coordinated ChiPak Diplomatic Pressure on J&K. From calling it a matter to be settled between India and Pakistan, China now unequivocally maintains it is a disputed area. For the past year, it has been issuing only paper visas to Kashmiris (largely a symbolic snub given the minuscule numbers applying) and, last year, invited separatist leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq to Beijing.

This July, it denied a visa to India's northern army commander Lt. Gen. B.S. Jaswal because he controlled a 'disputed area'. India lodged a strong diplomatic protest and suspending nascent defence ties-port visits by warships and military exercises with China leading to a chill between the two nations not seen in years. This comes even as a booming bilateral trade between the two is set to cross $60 billion, India's largest trading partner is also Swiftly moving into its Strategic Space.

In a Sense, this 'My Enemy's Enemy is my Friend' Version for South Asia has always been around. Since it's landmark border settlement with Pakistan in 1963 where Field Marshal Ayub Khan ceded over 2,000 sq km of the Shaksgam Valley to Mao's China just a year after it inflicted a humiliating defeat on India, China has been Pakistan's largest military benefactor. In 1971, Nixon used Pakistan to reach out to Mao's China. Today, from their serene offices behind the vermillion-walled Zhongnanhai compound, Beijing's Kremlin, the engineer-leaders of the Chinese juggernaut are using their southern ally as a springboard into west, south and central Asia and against India.

"Pakistan is China's North Korea in South Asia, a Strategic Hedge Designed to Prevent the Rise of Asian Rival, India," says Defence Analyst K. Subrahmanyam. It is an UnEqual Relationship Islamabad Gleefully Acknowledges. During his Visit to Beijing this July, President Asif Ali Zardari said that Pakistan would continue to be China's "Force Multiplier". He didn't Mention India but the Allusion was Evident.

With American Imports like F-16s making up the Qualitative Edge, cheaper Chinese arms imports provided the Pakistani military machine with the Quantitative Edge. Since the 1990s, nearly 80 per cent of Pakistan's arsenal including JF-17 fighters, Type 85 battle tanks and F-22 frigates have come from China.

China is now working at neutralising Russia, the US and India to become the dominant Asian power. Deft Chinese moves in the past few months-an ongoing ChiPak nuclear-deal Five Nuclear Reactors including a Gigantic 1 Gigawatt Plant that far exceeds the Indo-US deal, generous economic assistance, $200 million flood aid and some 120 infrastructure projects, have pried Pakistan loose from the American orbit. As Af-Pak Flounders, ChiPak is the more Enduring Reality. "The Chinese Investments in Pakistan are Now so Heavy that they will do Everything to Guarantee the Survival of Pakistan as a State," says Jayadeva Ranade, former R&AW official.

How has India's Establishment Reacted to what analyst B. Raman calls the 'Strategic Strangulation' of India by a rising superpower that is learning to back its Economic Muscle with Military Might. The recent Commanders' Conference in Delhi underscored China as the Long-Term Threat. The view in South Block is "Trust and Verify but Keep the Powder Dry".

"There is a new assertiveness among the Chinese. It is difficult to tell which way it will go. So it is important to be prepared," Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told a recent meeting of editors in the Capital. But the frequency of such assertions does not match ground realities. The Prime Minister's Concerns and what a Cabinet Minister Calls China's 'Blow Hot, Blow Cold' Policy Echoes South Block's Puzzlement.

"When Somebody Arms a Hostile Neighbour with Nuclear Weapons and First Strike Delivery Systems Like Cruise Missiles, it is An Act of War," says Strategic Analyst Rear Admiral (Retd) Raja Menon. India has, however, not even raised the topic of nuclear transfers to Pakistan with China particularly because South Block has been keen to try and play down the chill in ties with China. "There are areas we will compete in and there are areas we will cooperate in. It is important for us to keep all avenues of dialogue open and not try and solve the problem through confrontation," says Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao.

China's Hardening Stance comes in the Backdrop of a Major Consolidation of its Comprehensive National Power and an Explosive Military Modernisation, the Largest by any Country since the Cold War. China officially claims to spend a modest $40 billion on defence (the Pentagon, however, pegs it between $45-65 billion), compared to India's $31 billion spend. It is rapidly acquiring fourth generation fighter aircraft, aircraft carriers, conventional and nuclear-powered attack submarines and a highly rapidly deployable, networked army. It is also investing in what US Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Robert F. Willard called "anti-access area denial weapon systems" like DF-21 ballistic missiles that can shred aircraft carriers.

China is now working at neutralising Russia, the United States and India to become the dominant Asian power.
This has, in recent months, led to an increasing assertiveness in its sphere of influence particularly along a 4,056-km disputed border with India. The border has been quiet since a 1993 pact between two nations for peaceful resolution but the massive infrastructure upgradation has ensured the Chinese army can be speedily rushed into Tibet. Influential new actors on the margins like energy companies, researchers and netizens are shaping China's foreign policy says the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). "The view that China should strongly defend its interests internationally is becoming prevalent, especially among these new foreign policy actors," says Linda Jakobson, director of SIPRI's China and Global Security Programme.

For India, the new Chinese assertiveness comes when the South Block is poised for a troika of state visits-Presidents Barack Obama, Dmitry Medvedev and Nicolas Sarkozy. The Obama visit, in particular, will be crucial. Analysts say that the Mutuality of India's Security Interests with the US in the 21st century could Irrevocably Draw the two countries Closer. Defence analyst Major General (Retd) G.D. Bakshi calls for India to Strengthen Ties with Key Asian Countries Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and South Korea. "India Must Offer Vietnam a Civil Nuclear Deal and Provide More Meaning Conventional Military Assistance," Bakshi says.

"India needs to enhance economic cooperation with neighbours, other than Pakistan, through better implementation of economic cooperation and aid programmes. Our present record of fulfiling promises to South Asian neighbours is sloppy," says former Indian envoy G. Parthasarathy.

As Chinese Analyst, Dai Bing Predicts: "While a Hot War between China and India is out of the Question, a Cold War between the Two Countries is Increasingly Likely." One that will be Determined by the Stickiness of the ChiPak Doctrine.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 29 Oct 2010 23:04

China made the same mistake when Japan said "No"

US to build £8bn super base on Pacific island of Guam
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -Guam.html

The expansion will include a dock for a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, a missile defence system, live-fire training sites and the expansion of the island's airbase. It will be the largest investment in a military base in the western Pacific since the Second World War, and the biggest spend on naval infrastructure in decades. However, Guam residents fear the build-up could hurt their ecosystem and tourism-dependent economy.
Estimates suggest that the island's population will rise by almost 50 per cent from its current 173,000 at the peak of construction. It will eventually house 19,000 Marines who will be relocated from the Japanese island of Okinawa, where the US force has become unpopular. The US's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has said that this could trigger serious water shortages. The EPA said that dredging the harbour to allow an aircraft carrier to berth would damage 71 acres of pristine coral reefs. The EPA's report said the build-up would "exacerbate existing substandard environmental conditions on Guam".
Local residents' concerns, however, have been sidelined by the US-China strategic competition. China has significantly expanded its fleet during the past decade, seeking to deter the US from intervening militarily in any future conflict over Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own, and to project power across disputed territories in the gas and oil-rich South China Sea. Beijing's naval build-up is also intended secure the sea lanes from the Middle East, from where China will import an estimated 70-80 per cent of its oil needs by 2035 supplies it fears US could choke in the event of a conflict.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 29 Oct 2010 23:07

Juggi, please go easy on the font colors. One or two emphasis is fine, but the human eye will tend to get irritated on mixed up font colors and sizes (and brain tells the eye to just skip it).

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 30 Oct 2010 19:09

Jaeger wrote:
vic wrote:Re Shiv

The issue is what is the distance from Chinese borders to their economic industrial areas, me think around 3000km+. So what is better 5000km on land or 15000km on sea?

vic: There are two items to consider -

1. 15,000km on sea could actually be better, because of 0 infrastructure costs, low per-unit transportation costs for bulk items, no issues of mountainous terrain, etc.

2. OTOH, that sea lane passes right by US (India) and through Malacca Straits, whereas the long and winding road across the mountains to the gates of Mordor runs all the way through (nominally) orc-held territory, which the eye of Saruman watcheth over.

True. For China it's Hobson's choice.

I believe that China cannot say "I'll take this rather than that". They have to try and make the land route as well. But China's Israel (Pakhanastan) was a poor bet. The land route via the Khunjerab can get blocked in winter and summer (avalanches/landslides). The road route to the border from Izlammerbahd is a 48 hour journey. To Karachi 12 hours and another 12 to Gwadar. There is no railway line to Gwadar and Pakistan railways are shrinking partly as a result of Chinese locomotives. About 5-7 days journey into a Chinese city

Checking from Google Earth I find that a paki soucre I had used was wrong. It is about 10,000 km from Straits of Hormuz to Shanghai. That is a 2 week sail for a ship sailing at 15 kts. But the volume is higher.

Actually we tend to think only of oil to China. Oil to China can go via a pipeline. But China's economy is exports. Those exports need to be shipped out as well so a land route via Pakhanastan would be good - but looks like a distant dream.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 30 Oct 2010 23:19

Shiv, The breakneck speed at which Chinese are famous for creating infrastructure, how long it would take for them to come up with dedicated railway lines thru Pakistan to carry Oil and other stuff considering the deep pockets and the goodwill they have in Pakistan. They already owns this Biatch.

How hard it is for China to buy out insurgents and Sardars in Baluchistan, after all they carry the same blood as rest of Pakistan.
Once you have the railway line, it can be later put to wonderful uses.
Actually pakistan becomes more secure once Chinese have their money locked in Pakistan in such Infra and who knows like we don't know today if Americans owns this Whore or it is reverse , Same would be true for sino-Pak relationship.

vic · Post by **vic** » 31 Oct 2010 10:32

VikasRaina wrote:Shiv, The breakneck speed at which Chinese are famous for creating infrastructure, how long it would take for them to come up with dedicated railway lines thru Pakistan to carry Oil and other stuff considering the deep pockets and the goodwill they have in Pakistan. They already owns this Biatch.

How hard it is for China to buy out insurgents and Sardars in Baluchistan, after all they carry the same blood as rest of Pakistan.
Once you have the railway line, it can be later put to wonderful uses.
Actually pakistan becomes more secure once Chinese have their money locked in Pakistan in such Infra and who knows like we don't know today if Americans owns this Whore or it is reverse , Same would be true for sino-Pak relationship.

My Answer:- My auntie is very hard working, so she will work hard, grow a beard and invest in Stock Market, thus will become Santa Ambani. But when will that happen?????????

vic · Post by **vic** » 31 Oct 2010 10:37

vic wrote:Re Shiv

The issue is what is the distance from Chinese borders to their economic industrial areas, me think around 3000km+. So what is better 5000km on land or 15000km on sea?

Jaeger wrote: vic: There are two items to consider -

1. 15,000km on sea could actually be better, because of 0 infrastructure costs, low per-unit transportation costs for bulk items, no issues of mountainous terrain, etc.

2. OTOH, that sea lane passes right by US (India) and through Malacca Straits, whereas the long and winding road across the mountains to the gates of Mordor runs all the way through (nominally) orc-held territory, which the eye of Saruman watcheth over.

Road travel in mountains is normally considered to be 2x of Roads in plains. So the road from Pak Port to factories in China would be equivalent 7500km long, over hostile climate and would take 10 days. Mass/bulk cargo would be impossible to move this way. A small ship can easily move say 20,000 tons of cargo which will require around 2000 trucks. So if even one ship is loaded/unloaded per shift, then Pakistan will require 2000x3x10x2x1.5= Two lakh trucks on road. Now increase the traffic exponentially and what do you get? Can you justify say US$ 50 Billion investments required on Ports, roads, railways, comms etc

I think Pak port for chini import is a non-starter economically and another paki wet dream

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 31 Oct 2010 13:16

VikasRaina wrote:Shiv, The breakneck speed at which Chinese are famous for creating infrastructure, how long it would take for them to come up with dedicated railway lines thru Pakistan to carry Oil and other stuff considering the deep pockets and the goodwill they have in Pakistan. They already owns this Biatch.

How hard it is for China to buy out insurgents and Sardars in Baluchistan, after all they carry the same blood as rest of Pakistan.

Vikas how come the Chinese haven't bought them out and started the job yet? After all it is important. And the idea is hardly new and it's not as if China lacks the will or money. Pakistan has to provide the workers and guarantee security for the line. Do you believe that happens easily in Pakistan?

I think the Chinese are more careful about the money they pump into Pakistan than the US. The US just prints more money knowing that those who have hitched their currency to the dollar will keep the value of the dollar up. Of of course the Chinese will bribe people. But building an infrastructure project is a different ball game because there have to be visible results in the end.

When Pakis built motorways they were getting US dollars in aid and gave contracts to western companies who made a profit along with the Pakis concerned. But here the money has to come from China, the material form China, the surveyors and engineers from China. Pakistan has to provide security for all the construction workers and guarantee that the road/rail will be safe. This is one thing that Pakistan has not been able to guarantee because Pakistan is not one country. I believe that security concerns are keeping the Chinese away. And i don't think the the so called "Government of Pakistan" and its army are in a position to provide security. Of course they (Pakis) will try and get the Chinese to invest because they smell money - not because they are doing some great strategic thinking.

The Pakistanis will gladly allow the PLA to bring its own soldiers into Pakistan and have its own security. But I don't think the PLA can manage that. Pakistan is a scam in which one set of people are out to make a profit at the expense of someone else and if there is a Chinese camp anywhere in Pakistan, someone will blackmail the Chinese to milk them for money in exchange for avoiding sabotaging the work.

vic · Post by **vic** » 31 Oct 2010 19:11

Will somebody shake my memory by telling me, when and where did China invest billions of dollars in any project in Pakistan?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 31 Oct 2010 20:18

vic wrote:Will somebody shake my memory by telling me, when and where did China invest billions of dollars in any project in Pakistan?

China will put in 1-2 billion USD if need be - but nothing like the US putting in 3 Bn USD a year for 10 or more years.

Gwadar port is an interesting study of ChiniPak on and off lovemaking

From 2005
http://www.asianresearch.org/articles/2528.html

The convergence of Sino-Pakistani strategic interests has put the port project onto a fast track to its early completion. In three years since its inauguration, the first phase of the project is already complete with three functioning berths. The Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will be on hand to mark the completion of this phase in March this year. Although the total cost of the project is estimated at $1.16 billion USD, China pitched in $198 million and Pakistan $50 million to finance the first phase. China also has invested another $200 million into building a coastal highway that will connect the Gwadar port with Karachi. The second phase, which will cost $526 million, will feature the construction of 9 more berths and terminals and will also be financed by China.

From 2006
http://www.dawn.com/2006/07/05/top1.htm

President Gen Pervez Musharraf has said that the Karakoram Highway will be linked to the southern Gwadar port in Balochistan. He was addressing a ceremony marking the inauguration of a dry port in the border town of Sust, 200km north of Gilgit, on Tuesday.

The dry port, a Pakistan-China joint venture, was built in 2,004 at a cost of Rs90m(PakRupees) to streamline border trade between the two countries.
<snip>
We are talking of Pakistan-China inter-connectivity in terms of energy and trade, improvement in the highway, development of railway link and gas and oil pipeline linkages and even fibre optic connectivity along the highway under one project.�

The president said the highway had been hailed as the eighth wonder of the world and added: �We are capable of creating ninth and 10th wonders in the form of railway and (oil/gas) pipeline linkages between Pakistan and China.�

From 2007
http://www.dawn.com/2007/02/02/top1.htm

The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet on Thursday granted 40-year tax exemptions to the proposed operators of Gwadar port, making it a virtual tax-free port to the extent of its development and operations.
<snip>
He said the list of tax exemptions was long. Some of the major tax incentives included complete exemption from corporate income tax for 20 years, duty exemption on import of material and equipment for construction and operations of Gwadar Power and Development Free Economic Zone for 40 years and duty exemption for shipping, bunker oil for Gwadar port for 40 years, he said, adding that the port operators would also be exempted from all local and provincial taxes for 20 years.

"They will make Pakistan an economic hub," said Dr Ashfaq when asked what the port operators would give in return. He agreed that it would be an �almost tax-free port�.

He said the ECC approved a five-year policy for the automobile industry allowing a gradual tariff reduction on import of cars and light commercial vehicles by up to five per cent to produce about 500,000 vehicles by 2011-12.

From 2009
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KH14Df02.html

China calls halt to Gwadar refinery
By Syed Fazl-e-Haider

QUETTA, Pakistan - Cash-strapped Pakistan, which has had to accept more than US$11 billion from the International Monetary Fund, is threatened with the loss of a huge foreign investment
after China said it had shelved its multi-billion dollar coastal oil refinery project at Gwadar, in southwest Balochistan province.

China has formally informed the Pakistani authorities that the refinery project has been deleted from the list of financial development plans agreed with Islamabad for the financial year ending next June as there has been no progress on the project, according to a Business Recorder report.

The decision, which follows suspension in January by the United Arab Emirates state-run International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC) of work on the $5 billion Khalifa Coastal Refinery (KCR) project at Hub, also in Balochistan, creates uncertainty about the future of the planned $12.5 billion mega oil city project in Gwadar, of which the refinery there was to be a key element.

It also casts doubt over plans for a corridor carrying energy pipelines and refinery products the length of Pakistan from Gwadar onto western China.

From 2010
http://news.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/da ... n-told-860

About 100 acres of land in the Gwadar industrial estate earmarked for Chinese investment still remains underdeveloped.Minister of State for Industries and Production Ayatullah Durrani told a delegation of the China-Kashgar government here on Monday that Chinese investments were awaited by the government.

It is believed that the reluctance of Chinese investors to come to Gwadar is because of the law and order situation, energy crisis and inadequate facilities.

PS: ***@@@

The symbol above has been put by me so I can search for this post at a later date. I want a compilation of posts containing information about the progress of China's "String of Pearls" and this is one of them.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 01 Nov 2010 02:47

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/b ... japan.html
Japan, Vietnam agree on rare earths, nuclear power
HANOI, Vietnam —

Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan says Vietnam has chosen Japan as a partner to mine rare earth metals and help build the Communist country's second nuclear power plant.Kan told reporters Sunday that Vietnam selected Japan for both projects during a meeting with his Vietnamese counterpart, Nguyen Tan Dung, in Hanoi.Japan earlier this month announced plans to begin mining in Vietnam for rare earth metals used in high-tech manufacturing, in a bid to reduce its dependence on China.China has blocked rare earths shipments to Japan following a diplomatic spat between the two countries involving disputed islands in the East China Sea

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 01 Nov 2010 02:50

http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/a ... o_islands/
US pushing for a settlement of disputed claim to islands

We have certainly encouraged both Japan and China to seek peaceful resolution of any disagreements that they have,’’ Clinton said at a news conference after the summit meeting ended. “It is in all of our interest for China and Japan to have stable, peaceful relations.’’In private conversations with Chinese and Japanese diplomats, Clinton “made very clear to both sides that we want the temperature to go down on these issues,’’ a senior official said.As the United States, Russia, and 16 Asian nations gathered in Hanoi to discuss regional cooperation, China’s aggressive maritime and territorial claims were sowing unease with several of its neighbors.When Japan last week reasserted its sovereignty over the islands — which it calls the Senkaku and China calls the Diaoyu — a senior Chinese official accused it of ruining the atmosphere of the summit.The United States, which had been mostly a bystander in such disputes, has taken a more active role under the Obama administration