Eastern Europe/Ukraine

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 15 Apr 2014 10:43

^^^ which is why the besht and EU are so appraid and constantly complains about the Rossians?

I have always wondered about one thing.

The media was in general supportive of the Ukrainians when they were protesting against Yanukovych and said it was a natural outpouring of spontaneous emotions. Such big words in a single sentence does make me weep. A natural outpouring here too... and the media also ridhiculed the Rossians / Yanokovych regime when he tried to poorly attempt a pro-govt rally.

Fast fwd a few months.

Now the media is highly critical of the pro-Russian protesters / supporters [as you may want to call it] who protest the Ukrainian govt / etc... and all and sundry call it Rossian troops who are killers, murders and thugs.

Mmh. A fair point. But however: I have a question. Why isn't the natural spontaneous outpouring of plain emotional Ukrainian citizens not coming to the fore CURRENTLY, my dear western and media people? Who is stopping them now ? Where, oh where, are the patriots now? Have they lost the fight currently? In a few months? A BIG lie. --> It implies that something else was at play earlier in Kyiv and surrounding areas. And that points to the EU and the US. Nothing less.

If I were any less intelligent, I would've fall for the media(n) line and the western line.

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 15 Apr 2014 11:06

The Russians made a mistake the day they agreed to German unification without Germany coming out of NATO and Warsaw Pact. Rather agreement should have been on the lines that we will allow German unification but West Germany will come out of NATO and East Germany will come out of Warsaw pact. The guarantee of united Germany is given jointly by the remaining NATO and Warsaw Pact nations. A united Germany within NATO was a blatant land grab by the Bhest.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Apr 2014 13:27

Russia thanks China for unbiased position on Ukrainian events - Lavrov

BEIJING, April 15. /ITAR-TASS/. Russia has thanked China for an unbiased position on current Ukrainian events, visiting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after talks with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in the Chinese capital on Tuesday.

“We have discussed Ukrainian issues. We confirmed gratitude to China for an unbiased and well-balanced position,” the Russian minister said.

Use of force to settle current crisis in Ukraine is unacceptable, Lavrov added.

China to continue playing constructive role in settling the Ukraine crisis - Chinese FM

BEIJING, April 14, 22:27 /ITAR-TASS/. China has pledged to play a constructive role in settling the Ukraine crisis.

China has always held an objective, fair and responsible stance on the situation in Ukraine, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his German opposite number Frank-Walter Steinmeier at a meeting on Monday. He said China had made three proposals as soon as the Ukraine crisis had started: to launch an international coordination mechanism and discuss all possible options of a political settlement, including the achievement of consensus.

“During this process the sides should refrain from any actions that may aggravate the situation,” the Chinese foreign minister said.

He added the idea of the holding four-sided consultations in Geneva involving the United States, Russia, the EU and Ukraine was in line with the Chinese initiative.

“China is pleased to see that it is being implemented,” Wang Yi stressed.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 15 Apr 2014 15:13

Kiev clique launches "anti-terrorist ops".Chief chicken Arsenic has just told the Ukranian hencoop ("parlaiment") that slow and steady ops have been initiated to restore Kiev control .

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/a ... els-passes
Pro-Russian rebels vow to take control of infrastructure across Donetsk region
Kiev calls for UN peacekeepers in east Ukraine and protesters ask Vladimir Putin for help after surrender deadline passes

Pro-Russian separatists occupying the regional government building in Ukraine's eastern city of Donetsk have vowed to take control of strategic infrastructure across the province they have declared an independent "people's republic".

Defying an ultimatum from Kiev to surrender, about two dozen separatist leaders gathered for a meeting in a top-floor room of the 11-storey building they have held for eight days.

"Everything from city cleaning to the sewage system, the airport, railway stations, military ... should all be under your control," Vladimir Makovich, one of the leaders, told the group.

Donetsk province has a population of 4.3 million residents – 10% of Ukraine's population – and much of the country's heavy industry. It is the biggest prize of the eastern regions in which pro-Russian separatists have captured government buildings during the past week.

As a 9am deadline passed, with no sign of the protesters leaving barricades in Donetsk or Slaviansk on Monday, at least 100 pro-Russian separatists attacked the police headquarters in the eastern city of Horlivka. Video footage shown on Ukrainian television showed ambulance staff said to have been called to treat the injured.

The standoff looked set to continue into the weekend as the latest round of talks between local, regional and protest leaders ended on Monday afternoon without agreement.

In Slaviansk, protesters – who woke on Monday anticipating an "anti-terrorist" operation involving the Ukrainian army that has not yet come – called on the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to help them while Ukraine's acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, asked for the deployment of UN peacekeepers.

Following the death of a state security officer and the wounding of two others near Slaviansk on Sunday, Turchynov gave a televised address in which he promised amnesty to those who had not fired at security forces if they laid down their arms and vacated government buildings.

In an emergency meeting soon after of the UN security council in New York, Russia described Ukraine's threat to mobilise armed forces as a "criminal order".

In Donetsk on Monday, Denis Pushilin – self-proclaimed head of what he called a "people's republic"– vowed to occupy the government building that has been the separatists' base until their demands for independence had been met. He claimed Turchynov was a war criminal for announcing an anti-terrorist operation against protestors, adding: "Now he's bringing enemy troops here, not to keep the peace but to attack."

Turchynov has maintained that the "anti-terorrism" offensive will go ahead, even though he sacked the state security chief in charge of the operation, signalling possible discord behind the scenes. According to the presidential website, Turchynov suggested to in a telephone call to the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, that an "anti-terrorist operation" could be conducted jointly by Ukrainian security forces and UN peacekeepers.

He also took a risky step to try to undercut rebels' demands, by holding out the prospect of a referendum on the future shape of the Ukrainian state. He suggested this could be held at the same time as a presidential election on 25 May.

Pro-Russian protesters seized more government buildings in several cities in Donetsk on Sunday, actions for which locals have claimed credit. Kiev and Washington have blamed Russia for inciting the takeovers.

The European Union on Monday threatened Russia with more sanctions over its actions in eastern Ukraine, which Britain said was being destabilised by Moscow, although some EU states said diplomacy should be given more time.

Protesters, many of whom are armed, have been occupying an administration building in the regional capital, Donetsk, and a security service building in neighbouring Luhansk region for more than a week, and this weekend took over several buildings in Slaviansk and nearby cities. On Monday morning, Sergey Taruta, the Kiev-appointed governor of Donetsk, said an "anti-terrorist operation" was under way in the region and called on citizens "not to react to provocations", but Slaviansk and the capital appeared to be quiet.

Also on Monday, the Ukrainian security and defence council head, Andriy Parubiy, said intelligence services had detained Russian secret agents in Ukraine, but did not provide further details.

The pro-Kiev analyst Dmitry Tymchuk, a Ukrainian army and defence ministry veteran, wrote on Facebook on Monday that Russian intelligence services had created "agent networks" in Ukraine in 2010-13, laying the groundwork for the "saboteurs and co-ordinators from Russia".

Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, said on Monday that no Russian agents were in eastern Ukraine. He said any powers that encouraged Kiev to use force against protesters must take full responsibility for their actions.

Sunday saw the first deaths in the burgeoning crisis in eastern Ukraine, where a majority speak Russian as their first language. The Ukrainian interior minister, Arsen Avakov, said one state security officer had been killed and five wounded in an operation in Slaviansk on Sunday, and the Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported that one pro-Russian activist had been killed.

The Guardian found evidence of shootouts in Slaviansk on Sunday, including a clash between government troops and unknown men on a road outside the city.

A video of the aftermath of the gun battle showed a wounded man in camouflage and a man in a black uniform with a machine gun, apparently dead. A witness said the man in the black uniform was a provocateur who had tried to spur the reluctant troops to attack civilians, but other video from Slaviansk showed Ukrainian forces dressed in similar black uniforms in a standoff with unarmed locals.

Troops ultimately pulled back without moving into the city, where locals continue to occupy a police station and a security service building.

Both the US and Nato have accused Russia of staging another Crimea-style intervention. Samantha Power, the US ambassador to the United Nations, said events were following the same pattern as in the Black Sea peninsula, where unidentified military forces took over government installations before the area was in effect annexed last month.

"[The unrest] is professional, it's co-ordinated, there is nothing grassroots-seeming about it. The forces are doing, in each of the six or seven cities they have been active in, exactly the same thing. Certainly it bears the telltale signs of Moscow's involvement," Power told ABC's This Week programme.

The Nato secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, described the protests as "a concerted campaign of violence by pro-Russian separatists, aiming to destabilise Ukraine as a sovereign state".

He said the appearance of men carrying Russian weapons and wearing uniforms without insignia was a "grave development" and called on Russia to pull back its troops from Ukraine's border.

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 15 Apr 2014 16:34

Treaties are never between equals. Even one is signed between equals it will be unstable and broken very soon.

Russia under Yeltsin was broke and as such could not impose any conditions the only scare the west had wa that if huge stockpile of nukes. That brought them (west) to table.

Khan and his poodles did not learn or didn't want to from treaty of Versailles
The point of flexion was orange revolution

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Apr 2014 16:46

Tsarev is also from the eastern part of Ukraine and was a Dnepropetrovsk businessman and People's Deputy of Ukraine elected for the Party of Regions. He was later expelled from the party on April 7.

The answer to George Welch's pooch: How were the ethnic Russians endangered by the UkBapzis in Kiev?

Oh, just that even the top leaders, Presidential Candidates, who are supposed to have government security protection, have their car tires slashed and themselves dragged out and beaten to near death. "In critical condition".

Imagine the plight of those who don't come in the TV news....

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 15 Apr 2014 17:15

Suraj wrote:
Johann wrote:- The real problem is that Russian troops were at the lead in the takeover of Crimea - the use of force to enlarge any country's territory is something Europe and the world in general has done its best to avoid and prevent since the end of WWII. I don't know if Putin has fully recongised the magnitude of the Rubicon he has crossed.
This particular statement is curiously specific - both you and TSJones have stated it, as have other western sources. Essentially, it is argued that the most egregious problem is the takeover of territory. Not, mind you, actual use of military force, but takeover of territory.

That convenient sanitization of the Russian action is quite deliberate, since it is obviously the case that the west cannot argue in terms of relative violence of military action. Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Libya were all bombed extensively, combined with ground forces joining in later, in the case or Iraq and Afghanistan.

...There's no reason why Moscow should not attempt to capture territory. It has legitimate historical, political, religious and cultural ties to that land. One must recognize that the sanctity of territorial integrity is only a statement on paper. It is maintained not because of treaty but because of the threat of force to defend it.

Suraj, the vast majority of wars in human history have come out of a desire for territorial expansion.

Discouraging wars of territorial expansion has been one of the real accomplishments since the end of WWII, and it was achieved through international consensus.

There have been interventions *throughout* the post 1945 period by all powers, not just the West. The Soviets intervened, India has intervened, the Chinese have intervened, the Vietnamese and Cubans intervened, even the Tanzanians intervened to bring down Idli Amin, etc.

But despite this any compilation of statistics will tell you we have had fewer inter-state wars than in any time in history despite the fact that the number of states has substantially increased.

Isn't that something worth preserving?

In the post Cold War era, the number of interventions have also dropped. I won't deny that there are aspects of post Cold War Western interventionism, especially in Iraq that are seriously problematic. I think what people are most upset about is the idea that in the post-Cold War era, unlike the Cold War era, the West seems to have effectively maintained a monopoly. Of course thats not really true. If the rest of the world were slightly racist they'd notice that there's been a tonne of interventions in Africa by African states since 1991, most of which have nothing to do with global geopolitics, but rather ethnic and economic motives. But hardly anyone pays serious attention Africa. But then perceptions can matter as much as reality.

But consider for a second, just how much worse things might have been if say, Iraq or Afghanistan had been formally carved up and handed out as rewards/responsibility to friends such as Jordan and Turkey, or Pakistan and the Central Asian 'stans.

Russia has consistently in the post Cold War era fudged the line - Transdniestria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and now its gone full blown with Crimea.

This isn't bad news for the West in particular, although I'm sure everyone many with a grievance and a sense that they've been forced to play the underdog for too long may certainly like to think so. This is a problem for everyone, including the Russians.

In comparison, the Russian actions have been clinically efficient about undermining existing borders through a combination of taking advantage of a weak Kiev despot regime without full control over its forces, and a local populace partial to Moscow, with a minimal use of deadly force.

Here's where Ukraine miscalculated - the new regime didn't fully think through the consequences of not having the full allegiance of its defence forces. Russia did exactly what anyone would do in the circumstances - use the breakdown in command structure in Ukraine to turn half of their demographic base against them.

Yes, nicely done. The Russians intervened to protect people they're fond of and to keep a foothold. They did that in Moldavia, Bosnia, Kosovo as well, and that's fine.

The problem is to turn all of this into the territorial expansion of Russia as a nation-state.

Yanukovich's actions may be treason to Ukrainian speakers, but constitutes an act of self-determination to Russian speakers, so any judgement of his actions is effectively a wash. How the west or anyone else determines his actions to be is irrelevant; no one else is in a position to judge his behavior as treasonous or otherwise.

Suraj, I think that statement captures the absurdity in the speed of the switch (i.e. within a few days) of the Kremlin's line from 'Ukraine must be be free from the EU, and Yanukovych is its rightful President!' to 'Crimea and Donbas must be free of Ukrainian opression! Yanukovych? never heard of him.'

Yanukovych was never a proponent of the idea of Crimean or Donbas unification with Russia, and is not at the helm of any such movement.

He has to chose doesn't he, between continuing to claim the presidency of Ukraine (in which case, its a problem being in Moscow), or abandon his claim the Presidency, and settle for the Presidency of whatever special autonomous republic Putin might grant him (problem, if he ever dreams of running Kiev again).

Its an impossible choice. He's a man who no longer has any political meaning (in the sense of the public sphere) in the same way and for the same reason that Ukraine's integrity suddenly and mysteriously lost meaning to Moscow.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 15 Apr 2014 17:22

The BB C just had footage of a pro-Russian pres. candidate being assaulted,virtually lynched by a mob in full view of the press,just after he gave them an interview,by thugs many who were masked just like the "Right Sector" neo-Nazis who engineered the Maidan "protests".
To expect Putin to simply stand by and watch another illegal "take-over" by the fascist neo-Nazis of the eastern regions of Ukraine and twiddle his thumbs,is as optimistic as searching for ice and snow in the Sahara.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/a ... aine-slips

Pro-Russian militias fill the vacuum as Kiev's control in eastern Ukraine slips
As 'Cossacks' appear in Slavyansk from Crimea, some believe Vladimir Putin is raising tensions to wreck the presidential elections

On the steps of Slavyansk's occupied town hall a group of armed men in fatigues posed happily for photos. They were equipped with Kalashnikovs – military-issue AK-74s – commando knives, flak jackets and walkie-talkies. Round the back, close to the main square with its Lenin statue, was a green military truck. It bore no insignia.

Who exactly were they? "We're Cossacks," one of the group explained. "It doesn't matter where we are from." He declined to give his name. Instead, he offered a quick history lesson, stretching back a thousand years, to when Slavic tribes banded together to form Kievan Rus – the dynasty that eventually flourished into modern-day Ukraine and its big neighbour Russia.

"We don't want Ukraine. Ukraine doesn't exist for us. There are no people called Ukrainians," he declared. "There are just Slav people who used to be in Kievan Rus, before Jews like Trotsky divided us. We should all be together again." The man – a middle-aged commando with a bushy beard – said he had come to Slavyansk "to help". He didn't intend to kill anybody, he said. Producing a long knife, he said: "I can't kill my brother Slavs."

The mysterious "Cossacks" arrived in Slavyansk, 40 miles (65km) north of Donetsk, on Saturday. Similar "Cossacks" popped up in Crimea too, soon after Russia invaded and then annexed the territory. According to Kiev's hapless interim government, Russia is behind the apparently co-ordinated takeover by masked men in military uniforms of government buildings all across eastern Ukraine. The US and EU agree. Moscow denies the charge. It says that the west blames it for everything.

One of the "Cossacks", however, admitted on Monday that he had just arrived from Crimea, where he spent a month "helping" with Russia's takeover there. How had he managed to travel from Russian-controlled territory to the east of the country? And from where did he get his Kalashnikov? He declined to answer but claimed the weapon had come from a seized police station, although Ukraine's police use different, smaller ones.

According to Igor Todorov, a professor of politics at Donetsk University, Vladimir Putin's goal is simple: to ramp up tensions ahead of Ukraine's presidential election next month, with a view to wrecking them.

Over the past few days pro-Russian activists have seized the city administration in almost a dozen places. They are now camped out in a succession of late Soviet municipal buildings. On Monday an angry crowd armed with sticks hijacked the police HQ in the city of Horlivka, badly beating a policeman and smashing in the upper windows. Occupations continue in Donetsk, and a string of other Russophone eastern towns in the Donbass region.

With the east slipping vertiginously out of its grip, Ukraine's western-backed government has promised a tough response. The defence minister, Arsen Avakov, has announced an "anti-terrorist" operation. One security officer was killed on Sunday and another injured after a shootout with separatists in Slavyansk, Avakov claimed. A deadline for the "terrorists" to hand over their weapons came and went on Monday.

On the road between Donetsk and Slavyansk, however, there were no signs of Ukraine's elusive army. Poplars and colourful apricot trees with white blossom line the highway; the route passes crumbling collective farms and old ladies selling local produce including jars of birch juice and saplings. If Kiev is preparing to send tanks in to deal with the separatists, they are well hidden.

With Ukraine's military either invisible or non-existent, pro-Russian militia have filled the vacuum. They have set up roadblocks heaped with black tyres. Masked youths, mostly armed with sticks, stop and check cars. Closer to Slavyansk the barricades get bigger. The route and main checkpoint lead over a bridge. Halfway across is an extraordinary sight: a group of women, mostly elderly, stand in a line holding gold-framed icons. They bow and pray – volunteer human shields.

The dilemma for the authorities in Kiev is that these anti-Kiev militias – whether spontaneous or set in motion by Moscow, like so many spinning tops – enjoy substantial local support. Many here are convinced that Ukraine's new rulers are "fascists", the accusation from the Kremlin. Economic conditions, meanwhile, are dire. The prevailing uncertainty following months of upheaval in Kiev and revolution means that tourists are no longer coming to Slavyansk. It boasts sanatoria, a pine forest and a famous monastery, all eclipsed by the threat of war.

Inside the city pro-Russian activists have taken over Slavyansk's police building, as well as the Cossack-occupied administration. Teenagers holding riot shields, their faces hidden by bandanas, perch on top of a precarious tyre wall. A flag proclaims: "People's Republic of Donetsk". Another says: "Referendum". Practically all here are in favour of a vote that would grant the east greater autonomy. Ukraine's prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, has already offered this, but nobody appears to be listening to him.

One protester, Nina, said her ceramics business was close to collapse because Russians were too scared to visit Ukraine. Another, Larissa, said Slavyansk – population 136,000 – was broke and in despair. "We don't have jobs. We don't have money. I don't care if they shoot us," she said defiantly. She added: "Nobody has come to talk to us. We are not bandits. We are not separatists. We just want a referendum."

Most shops in Slavyansk were shut on Monday. The schools were closed too. But some people ventured out into the main square, sitting on benches in the spring sunshine. A few posed with the colourful "Cossacks" outside the town hall. Next to their military lorry was a pleasant garden containing a war memorial. The monument – a bell and a pair of wooden Kalashnikovs – was dedicated to the 11 men from Slavyansk who perished in the 1980s during the Soviet Afghan war.

The mood in eastern Ukraine is dangerously febrile. But the only actual war taking place at the moment appears to be a propaganda one. One excitable Ukrainian news website claimed on Monday that 100 separatists had seized the police HQ in Krasniy Liman, a small rustic town just north of Slavyansk. This turned out to be untrue. At the scene two policeman stood outside; they said that a group of activists had turned up earlier in the week but went away after a friendly chat. Nearby, five members of the town's tiny militia sat around a small brazier.

"We've struck a deal with the police. We both guard the building at night," Yuri Saborkin, 43 – a former soldier, dressed in fatigues – explained. Ukraine's SBU internal security division confiscated weapons from the police station over the weekend, so nobody had any arms. He said he didn't like the Ukrainian media. "It's complete lies. We're not bad guys," he said.

In this frenzied informational conflict it is clear which side is winning: it is not the US.

On the road out of town pro-Russian agitators had set up a roadblock on the edge of a pine forest. Their camp looked inviting. It was a sylvan scene – a tent, a new wooden bench, a pile of neatly stacked logs, and the smell of dinner cooking on a fire.

Someone had drawn a caricature of an American in a top hat with a dollar sign on it. On the American was the word: "Puppeteer". His fingers were pulling strings with a series of letters. They read: "Our government".

Yes,"territorial expansion" is a good reason for wars.A pity that NATO forgot about it while on its expansionist spree after the Cold War!

Is the Ukrainian Security Service a US Intelligence Unit? CIA Director Held ‘Secret Consultations’ in Kiev
http://www.globalresearch.ca/is-the-ukr ... ev/5377806

Russian news agencies reported Sunday that U.S. CIA director John Brennan had a secret meeting with Ukrainian officials in Kiev before they began operations against separatist forces that had taken over buildings in the country’s east.

Brennan landed in Ukraine on Saturday under an assumed name and held a ”series of secret meetings” with the country’s “power bloc” Interfax reported, citing an unidentified official in the Ukrainian parliament. The unidentified official said that there were “unconfirmed reports” that the U.S. security official was behind the decision to use force in eastern Ukraine after pro-Russian separatist forces took control of the city of Slovyansk.

Ukrainian parliament Communist Party deputy Vladimir Golub told RIA Novosti that lawmakers were talking about the visit openly and opined that the Ukrainian Security Service had become a unit of the CIA.

Commenting on the report, deputy chairman for the State Duma’s Defense Committee Frants Klintsevich said that he would view such a visit as a challenge to Russia.

Pro-Kremlin media have spoken of alleged CIA involvement in Ukraine since pro-Western protests against now-ousted President Viktor Yanukovych began last November.

The political crisis in the country following Yanukovych’s flight from Kiev in February has seen an increase in tension between Russia and the U.S., including the two countries’ trading sanctions against each other’s government officials following Russia’s annexation of the Crimea peninsula.

On Saturday U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned of ”additional consequences” against Russia if it did not take steps to deescalate the situation in eastern Ukraine, where separatist sentiment similar to that seen in Crimea led to the takeover of government buildings in several cities by armed Russian forces.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 15 Apr 2014 20:51

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27018199

I said earlier on this thread, 40,000 troops isn't a lot to fight a conventional war. Even with a cadre of local sympathisers and advisors.
You can do that either if you expect no organised opposition *or* if you're strengthening your hand at negotiations.

So the question was and is, what is Putin willing to settle for?

A federal rather than unitary Ukraine seems to be the key demand that seems surfaces again and again.

Reducing Russia's sphere of influence from a unitary Ukraine as a whole (clearly unsustainable) to a portion of Ukraine within a new federal setup is much more manageable.

The negotiations for something like, like any sort of constitutional process could be protracted, especially if Moscow wants a lot of special provisions. Its also going to be very complex given that this is something that has to involve a lot of domestic Ukrainian politics, as well as the EU and Russia.

If the Kremlin is serious about this then the preliminary negotiations will center on the conditions under which the Russians will demobilise on the other side of the border, and almost certainly the Russian precondition will be that the Ukrainian state does not attempt to regain condition in Donetsk. If the Russians are actually willing to discuss the what it would take for them to disperse their troop build up it will be a measure of their seriousness.

However in the standard Soviet model, you used needed Party cadre, special service troops and local recruits to make sure you could set the political tone, which includes passing any referendum. In this case either a referendum on federalisation or Russian anschluss. I don't think Moscow will be flexible on this. And certainly there's plenty of nationalist voices in Kiev and the western Ukraine that dont want to be flexible either. This is the real potential flashpoint. In the end I think a lot will come down to whether Kiev, DC and Brussels decide that Putin is serious about negotiations.

It would probably be best for him if they do - that way he avoids the serious costs of a war, looks like a hero to Russians, holds on to Crimea, and retains influence in Donetsk and Eastern Ukraine.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Apr 2014 21:40

It would be interesting to see how Ukraine Citizen specially those pro-West will cope with IMF reforms which is a precondition and a tough one to get IMF loans ........6-12 months down the line we would see if the rising cost of Gas , lowering of Pension will take Ukraine towards Greece

There wont be Russian Gas Subsidy for sure but if Ukraine can get subsidised gas from West would be interesting to see

Medvedev says Ukraine saved hundreds of billions of dollars on Russian gas discounts

The Russian prime minister says gas discounts were considerable sums the Ukrainian state and its leaders should have used to promote economic development of the country but failed to do that

MOSCOW, April 15. /ITAR-TASS/. Ukraine has saved hundreds of billions of US dollars on Russian gas discounts over the years of its independence, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday.

“We rendered large-scale and very considerable aid to Ukraine, like we did to other republics of the former Soviet Union,” he said. “I would refrain from citing exact figures but I would like to tell you just one thing - over the period of its development as an independent state, I think Ukraine has saved hundreds of billions of US dollars only on discounts Russia granted on its gas under non-market gas trade rules.”

“These are not phantom figures, these are real figures,” he stressed.

“It’s quite a different matter that we did it sincerely, being guided by friendly feelings we had and have to Ukraine,” Medvedev noted. “We cannot build our relations only on the principles of brotherly support. That is why, at a certain point, we had to resort to market pricing formulas, like we did in relations with other partners and domestically. I am telling this because we have extended such assistance to Ukraine for two decades. I repeat that this assistance amounted to hundreds of billions of US dollars.”

“Our European partners, I mean (IMF managing director Christine) Lagarde appreciated the help Russia had extended to Ukraine in a recent period. I mean $3 billion we granted as a loan, having bought the Eurobond-secured loan, say, from a borrower which, as a minimum, gave rise and is giving rise to serious doubts. This money played a considerable role in establishing macroeconomic stability for a certain period. I would like to stress that these are not my own words, but the words of the IMF managing director. It only proves that we offered and are still offering a kind of help,” Medvedev said.

According to the Russian prime minister, gas discounts were considerable sums the Ukrainian state and its leaders should have used to promote economic development of their country but failed to do that. “So, the Ukrainian economy is in a very grave condition. That is why we are closely watching what is going on there, regardless of other political factors. We are simply sorry for people who are not paid their wages and pensions in this situation,” Medvedev added.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 15 Apr 2014 21:46

BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 1h

Shots heard near Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine as government reportedly claims recapture of airfield from militants http://bbc.in/1gZMBNr

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 15 Apr 2014 21:48

Johann wrote:Discouraging wars of territorial expansion has been one of the real accomplishments since the end of WWII, and it was achieved through international consensus.

This is not true at all.

The wars of Territorial expansion ended not because folks were pushed back but because the expansion oriented empires had all hit the maximum of their territorial demands.

China swallowed Tibet and what is now Xinjiang. Made claims attacked India and even now occupies territory.
Russia pretty much swallowed most other land between Tibet and Poland, no tears were shed.
Pakistan attacked and occupied parts of Kashmir and unilaterally absorbed parts of Afghanistan.

Even the USA made small acquisitions like Guantanamo or DG (no by your leave with India required!) or Guam, etc.

Why even India did a Goa and no tears were shed.

What really ended the wars was the pax americana that ensures full mercantile access by all to the resources of the entire planet, providing one is willing to pay for it. It is this same pax americana that has allowed china to prosper and expand and which is now working to undermine the open access rule by ensuring exclusive access for itself. Trust the Chinese to misunderstand the reality of the world, something the Japanese and Koreans are careful to scrupulously follow. It was access to resources (rubber?) that triggered Japanese expansionism after all.

The biggest challenge to peace in future will be China and its foolishness.

There are a few areas the pax americana does not cover. Nuclear material is one. Notice that so many of the wars and conflicts have been over claims and counter claims on nuclear material. Lately access to chemical weapon materials has joined nuclear.

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 15 Apr 2014 21:51

Many of the states that have been carved up are done to suit the interests of UK- west. Naturally, any change in status quo would challenge such a primacy of the west. Hence, they will be crying hoarse about daylight robbery, hooman rites violation etc. However, there is no gurantee for 'stasis'. Nature does not only abhor vacuum, it also abhors stasis.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 15 Apr 2014 22:14

Johann wrote:Suraj, the vast majority of wars in human history have come out of a desire for territorial expansion.

Discouraging wars of territorial expansion has been one of the real accomplishments since the end of WWII, and it was achieved through international consensus.

But despite this any compilation of statistics will tell you we have had fewer inter-state wars than in any time in history despite the fact that the number of states has substantially increased.

Fewer inter-state wars in EUROPE, maybe. But worldwide ? Conflict is a constant of mankind. There's been unending warfare in Africa, the Middle-East, all over Asia and South America (mostly drug related) in the past half a century. And that is ignoring the west's repeated interventions in multiple places: the US in central and south america, UK/EU in Europe, Middle-East, Africa, Asia and even the Indonesian archipelago.

Johann wrote:But consider for a second, just how much worse things might have been if say, Iraq or Afghanistan had been formally carved up and handed out as rewards/responsibility to friends such as Jordan and Turkey, or Pakistan and the Central Asian 'stans.

Are you being facetious ? Iraq *has* been carved out for all practical purposes, into a Kurd zone, Shia zone and Sunni zone, instead of them all being united under a brutal iron fist by Saddam as a largely cohesive nation state. Iraq in its present state remains in danger of splitting along its ethnic boundaries under duress. As to Afghanistan, the assumption that the current brief unity will hold, betrays a lack of awareness about the history of that country.

Johann wrote:Russia has consistently in the post Cold War era fudged the line - Transdniestria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and now its gone full blown with Crimea.

The problem is to turn all of this into the territorial expansion of Russia as a nation-state.

Which they have every right to intervene in - all of them have substantial Russian history, population or other ties. It is a problem primarily for the west, because the west is implacably opposed to Russia. The west should speak for itself, instead of claiming it's an issue for everyone.

As I mentioned previously, you continue to do the same thing - weigh the expansion of territory as a far greater crime than military intervention. I disagree with this. In fact I would claim a lot of Indians do. Territorial expansion is not a dirty word for us, but it is to Europeans. Europe has been so burned by centuries of it that it is, to them. But not to us. From an Indian perspective, gratuitous military intervention is a far more egregious mistake, and one which the west has been repeatedly guilty of.

From this perspective, Russia is far less at fault than the west is. History shows that borders never remain set in stone. They always change. Attempting to forcibly prevent that WILL fail. Europe, by acting collectively against Russia, is making the same mistake that fostered prior world wars - instead of letting a localized change in borders work itself through, you treat the change as something you must collectively fight, and exhort the rest of the world to fight. It's that attempt to collectively act, that precipitated world wars.

Johann wrote:Yanukovych was never a proponent of the idea of Crimean or Donbas unification with Russia, and is not at the helm of any such movement.

He has to chose doesn't he, between continuing to claim the presidency of Ukraine (in which case, its a problem being in Moscow), or abandon his claim the Presidency, and settle for the Presidency of whatever special autonomous republic Putin might grant him (problem, if he ever dreams of running Kiev again).

He has to choose, because Ukraine functionally does not exist as a nation state anymore. It cannot claim such a thing unless it has control over its territory and its armed forces, neither of which it can claim. All the Kiev despots can claim is control over Kiev, and the western half. It is the west that stridently ignores reality.

vic · Post by **vic** » 15 Apr 2014 23:46

I think some moral and diplomatic support to Eastern Ukraine protestors with Kornet ATGMs and Iglas may be helpful for the process of democracy.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Apr 2014 01:20

a lot will come down to whether Kiev, DC and Brussels decide that Putin is serious about negotiations.

Isn't this a bit like PRC, Russia and Ciudad de Mexico deciding whether Obama is serious negotiations on the future of Mexico? I am surprised that London and Paris were left out.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 16 Apr 2014 01:25

Isn't this a bit like PRC, Russia and Ciudad de Mexico deciding whether Obama is serious negotiations on the future of Mexico? I am surprised that London and Paris were left out.

"Worst possible scenario" says Russia as the Kiev clique conduct anti-terror ops in the east. Between 4-11 people killed at Kramatorsk airfield.

The secret visit of the CIA chief was meant to spur the Ukranians into action as loss of control of the east would mean the collapse of the Kiev clique who seized power through the violent antics of the neo-fascist Maidan mob.
Check this video-clip from Sky news.
http://beforeitsnews.com/war-and-confli ... 51692.html

Xcpts:

Kramatorsk

Coup-imposed President Aleksandr Turchinov said that he received a telephone call confirming that the military has seized the airfield in Kramatorsk.

Ukrainian troops approached the military airfield in armored personnel carriers between the eastern cities of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk earlier on Tuesday, the people’s militia located at the airfield told RIA Novosti over the phone.

“They started negotiating with the people’s militia, which is in control of the airfield. The shooting started unexpectedly. There are injured among the people’s militia, and there may be deaths,” they said.

The activists who controlled the base said they were forced to retreat. However, the city is still under the control of the people’s militia, as they have blocked the entrance to Kramatorsk and are ready to defend the city, the activists added.

“We were forced out of the airfield, but the city itself is under our control, we won’t allow [the Ukrainian troops] to enter,” one of the activists told Interfax.

“There are about 60 units of armored vehicles. They have been preparing for several days, and now they started to storm [the airfield]. The protesters blocked their way, they started shooting, there are wounded. Our people retreated. There are about 15 tanks, the other units are armored personnel vehicles,” another member of the people’s militia told RIA Novosti.

MurthyB · Post by **MurthyB** » 16 Apr 2014 01:26

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 16 Apr 2014 01:30

"The Bear neccessities" Tx Murthy,a picture speaks a thousand words!

No this could be quite troublesome for the EU:

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/berlin-f ... t=readmore

Berlin Fears a High Court Ruling Could Threaten the European Union
Geopolitical Weekly
Tuesday, April 15, 2014 -

Kursk is not too far away ,perhaps we will see a rerun of a great armoured column rolling across the Ukranian countryside!

MurthyB · Post by **MurthyB** » 16 Apr 2014 02:03

Philip-ji, you are welcome. Also thank you for Ty Ping that post in the other dhaaga!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 16 Apr 2014 02:11

"Exciting times" in the Ukraine.
http://rt.com/news/putin-ukraine-milita ... ation-740/
Putin: Ukraine’s radical escalation puts it on edge of civil war
Published time: April 15, 2014

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/a ... flict-east

Ukraine is on the verge of major armed conflict as government forces launch their first significant military action in the east of the country, where they have clashed with about 30 armed pro-Russian gunmen at a provincial airfield.

Shots were fired in Kramatorsk airport as Ukrainian special forces stormed in to reassert Kiev's control. As troop helicopters hovered above and tempers flared, a Ukrainian general was set upon by a group of local people incensed that two protesters had been injured, knocking off his military-issue fur hat and yelling, "Jail him."

At the same time as Kramatorsk airport was being seized, elite Ukrainian units were also gathering outside the nearby city of Slavyansk in an operation aimed at taking back control from armed pro- Russian groups.

The deployment involved regular army troops alongside special forces from the interior ministry and the security service in at least nine troop carriers and seven buses. Tracked troop carriers could be seen parked in the woods.

It was the first major operation since the Ukrainian government vowed to take "anti-terrorist" action if the rebels did not vacate government buildings in eastern Ukraine. A smaller, abortive operation in Slavyansk on Sunday ended in a shoot-out, in which one Ukrainian soldier died and two were wounded, apparently by pro-Russian forces.

Ukraine's acting president said the recapture of the airport was just the first such action aimed at restoring Kiev's control over the east.

"I just got a call from the Donetsk region: Ukrainian special forces have liberated the airport in the city of Kramatorsk from terrorists," Oleksandr Turchynov told parliament.

"I'm convinced that there will not be any terrorists left soon in Donetsk and other regions and they will find themselves in the dock – this is where they belong."

Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, declared the Ukrainian moves "anti-constitutional acts" and in a phone call to the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, demanded that the UN condemn them. But the US voiced strong support for the Ukrainian operation, arguing that the government in Kiev "has to respond" to armed groups.

https://www.google.co.in/search?newwind ... 8tWeoC4lc8

Ukraine troops swoop to eject ‘Russians’
Tom Coghlan, Donetsk, Ben Hoyle, Moscow and Philippe Naughton
Last updated at 3:54PM, April 15 2014

Ukrainian forces launched a large-scale operation to reclaim government buildings and sites from pro-Russian paramilitaries today in a sudden military escalation of the crisis. Unconfirmed reports said that there had been a number of people killed or wounded in an assault on a military airfield near the city of Kramatorsk led by Ukrainian armoured personnel carriers backed by helicopters. Sukhoi fighter jets were seen flying

This entire game as a western analyst says is about "hurting Russia",its all about "money,resources and missiles".
Interestingly he also draws a parallel to the Cuban missile crisis,as I pointed out earlier. The US didn't want missiles in CUba aimed at them,so too do the Russians not want NATO missiles pointed at them from the nations of the former Warsaw Pact.This is the "wood" that needs to be looked at from a distance.Events in the Ukraine is akin to looking at the trees.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 16 Apr 2014 03:22

Johann wrote:The real problem is that Russian troops were at the lead in the takeover of Crimea - the use of force to enlarge any country's territory is something Europe and the world in general has done its best to avoid and prevent since the end of WWII...the vast majority of wars in human history have come out of a desire for territorial expansion...Discouraging wars of territorial expansion has been one of the real accomplishments since the end of WWII, and it was achieved through international consensus...Isn't that something worth preserving?...

I don't know how you can make such high-minded pronouncements with a straight face. The hypocrisy is just stunning. Iraq was invaded in flagant violation of international law, interional opinion, and based on intel that was faked by the Bush administration. The intention (as John McCain made very clear at the time) was to permanently occupy Iraq and for US\British oil companies to gain exclusive rights to exploit that country's untapped oil reserves. The plan ultimately failed when it became clear the Iraqi population would never accept foreign occupation and that the insurrection would go on forever unless the US & British forces withdrew. This was naked territorial expansion in everything but name only. The fact that it failed doesn't diminish the precedent that was set, by the US and Britain in Iraq.

You want to worry about a world where powerful nations can just invade any country they want? Well get over it; the US and Britain already set this awful precedent way back in 2003. And unlike the Russians, they didn't carry out their expansionist designs in a humane manner, using minimal force. No, they completely destroyed the country, killed over 500,000 people, and left the place teetering on the brink of civil war. And let's not forget the thousands of Serbs and Libyans killed by bombs and missiles from the US and its allies. Serbia is now carved up in a fashion no different than Georgia and Ukraine. Libya's in chaos. So much death and destruction at the hands of your supposedly civilized US and western allies, and you dare criticize Russia's relatively bloodless action in Ukraine?

This imaginary world you talk about, where nation states respect each others sovereignty and borders, was completely trashed by the US and its allies over the last 20 years, as they went on an orgy of interventions and expansions all over the world. This was your Cold War peace dividend so greedily squandered by the West. So for you to feign outrage over Russia's actions just comes off as hypocritical and dishonest.

But consider for a second, just how much worse things might have been if say, Iraq or Afghanistan had been formally carved up and handed out as rewards/responsibility to friends such as Jordan and Turkey, or Pakistan and the Central Asian 'stans..

Considering the sorry state of both Iraq and Afghanistan I'm not sure things would've been any worse... quite possibly better depending on how the carving was done.

Russia has consistently in the post Cold War era fudged the line - Transdniestria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and now its gone full blown with Crimea.

They're just joining the party your West already started...

The problem is to turn all of this into the territorial expansion of Russia as a nation-state.

What's more egregious, nations invading weaker ones to exploit their oil, or nations absorbing weaker ones and granting them all the rights and privileges of citizenship? Most Crimeans are certainly happy; their pensions just quadrupled and they'll actually get some infrastructure spending and jobs now.

Ask the Iraqis how happy they are.

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 16 Apr 2014 08:48

Deleted

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Apr 2014 09:04

Putin Reaction to a Journalist in recent interview when he was asked NATO ABM system was build against Iran and not Russia

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 16 Apr 2014 11:21

I have on tape Gen.Sir Micheal Jackson,head of the British army being grilled on an Al Jazeera talk show on whether the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan left these countries better off than before.'We will never know" was his apologetic reply.Another British officer veteran of the wars and other analysts said that the events would be viewed by history in a wider context,beginning from the Iran-Iraq War,western support for Saddam to attack Iran,gassed the Kurds (there's a whole book on how the West armed Saddam with me),killing in months far more than the Syrian casualties, and its warped policies in the region.The 2 Gulf Wars and Af-Pak are the continuum of these policies.After 13 years in Afghanistan,the retreat from Afghanistan is reminiscent of old paintings of the infamous retreat from Kandahar of Gen.Burrows' 92nd Highlanders in 1880!

How wonderfully well does history repeat itself first as tragedy and then as farce!
Exactly what I predicted over a decade ago.In Vietnam a nation of peasants defeated the mightiest miliatry power on the planet.In Iraq, camel drivers of the desert defeated the west, and in Afghanistan,poppy farmers delivered the coup-de-grace!

Events in the Ukraine have got very messy after the visit of the CIA chief to Kiev.Until then it appeared that a degree of conciliation was seen in the statements of the Kiev clique and a referendum promised.But after the real bosses of Kiev,the Yanqui donkey ,war criminal O'Bomber,and his CIA head honcho,the puppet chickens of Kiev were given their marching orders. A full-fledged war by proxy between the US/NATO and Russia is on the cards and the Ukraine is going to shortly resemble a WW2 battlefield yet again. If evidence is found that the US has sent in its mercenary forces/CIA agents,and naval interference from western warships in the Balkc Sea,I fear for the US/NATO warships .They may have a short and exciting life! A French DDG is entering to add to the number of targets fro Yakhont/Brahmos.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/a ... ily-krutov
Troops fire as locals in Kramatorsk confront Ukraine general Vasily Krutov
Protesters injured as anti-terrorist operation announced by acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, begins

Angry locals surrounded General Vasily Krutov, yelling questions about what he and his troops were doing in their city.

"We are conducting an anti-terrorist operation," the senior Ukrainian officer began, but he was interrupted by angry shouts of "What terrorists?"

As the crowd surged towards the airfield entrance in Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine, waving a Russian flag on a long branch, the Ukrainian troops inside unleashed a volley of shots into the air.

After a failed ultimatum for pro-Russian protesters to lay down their arms and vacate government buildings they have occupied in at least nine cities across eastern Ukraine, yesterday Kiev attempted to flex its military muscle. But the anti-terrorist operation announced by the acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, got off to a rough start when security service troops took control of the military facility, firing shots and injuring at least two protesters. The air base is an obvious staging point for any operation in the larger nearby city of Slavyansk, where well-organised gunmen seized the police and security service building last weekend. A similar group of armed men later stormed a government building in Kramatorsk with a flurry of gunfire, although no one was injured.

The casualties angered still further locals opposed to the Kiev government. Men quickly hemmed the troops inside the air base with tyres, pallets and small trees they had uprooted, vowing to guard the barricade through the night and set it on fire if anyone tried to come out. A few dozen molotov cocktails stood on the road nearby.

Although officials blame the unrest on Russian agents, including a man who identified himself on camera as a lieutenant general in the Russian army, local protesters say they are acting on their own initiative, out of their hatred for the new regime. The mayor of Slavyansk said on Ukrainian television on Tuesday that soldiers from Russia and Crimea had led the building takeovers there.

Speaking with Krutov, the crowd demanded to know why the troops, sent by Kiev to quell an uprising in eastern Ukraine that officials say Russia is inciting, had fired on locals, with one man displaying a wound on his thigh he said was from a bullet graze. The general said about 30 armed men were operating in the area and his men had been forced to open fire, but he was quickly drowned out by shouts and chants of "Lies!" and "Donbass!," the historical name of this coal-mining region with close economic and cultural ties to Russia.

At one point, a group of men began punching Krutov in the head, knocking off his military-issue fur hat. Yelling "jail him", they attempted to drag him away, but others stopped them and escorted him to the base's entrance.

A man who identified himself only as Sergei said he had been in the group of men that had come under fire at the airfield, saying two of them had been wounded. He said after they saw two helicopters land and unload special forces, he and a dozen or so others advanced on the base armed with clubs. After they passed through the gates, soldiers began shooting at them, he said, denying reports that men in the party were carrying firearms.

Arriving at the facility, the Guardian also saw a fighter jet resembling a Su-27 circling around the airfield. Locals claimed it had strafed the airfield earlier.

Speaking to journalists, Krutov said the wave of unrest was being led by Russian forces. He said more than 300 Russian forces had infiltrated neighbouring Luhansk region the day before.

"We need to destroy this foreign invader. We have among these spies Russian military, professionals with long experience in all sorts of conflicts."

Asked if another ultimatum would be given to those who had seized buildings, Krutov said that would be "too humanitarian". Civilian casualties were possible, but his forces would try to "make sure not one innocent person suffers".

"Unfortunately we face a difficult situation because those realising their plan are hiding behind human shields," he said, apparently referring to the many pro-Russian locals who have taken part in building takeovers.

"People don't want to turn in their weapons. As soldiers, we are obliged to defend our land," said a paratrooper with the anti-terrorist force who declined to give his name. "We believe in everything we're doing to preserve our government, our territory and peace here. No one is planning to fight with protesters."

"Some of them are cynically working towards their own ends, but many are under the influence of propaganda," Krutov said about the pro-Russian protesters. Russian media have painted the new Kiev government as dominated by nationalists who want to crack down on Russian speakers in the east.

"We're not separatists," a man who identified himself only as Valery said outside the barricaded airfield. "I don't want Ukraine to be divided. I don't want to give our land to Russia … I want a referendum because we can't work with this regime any other way."

Ukraine crisis: Helicopter gunships take country closer to all-out war
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 61011.html

A prolonged and increasingly vicious confrontation in eastern Ukraine has turned into armed conflict as Ukrainian troops used helicopter gunships to seize back an airport that had been held by pro-Russian militiamen.

The attack at Kramatorsk came as ground forces with armour gathered around Slovyansk, which had become a symbolic stronghold for well-armed separatists.

At Kramatorsk, two of the aircraft carried out strafing runs, before two others landed troops. Four people were believed to have been injured, but claims of people killed, some of them civilians, could not be verified.

A stand-off developed afterwards, when protesters unfurled a banner saying “Shame on you! Go back home” and shouting while the soldiers fired in the air. Eight miles away the residents of Slovyansk marched towards their own small airstrip. They were, they stated, doing so to protect it from “fascists and Nazis” being flown in from the west of the country.

The outbreak of fighting raised deep trepidation that Ukraine, which has already lost Crimea to the Kremlin, could be entering into a civil war which may lead to the intervention of Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly declared that he was prepared to act to protect ethnic Russians across the border.

The Russian Prime Minister, Dmitry Medvedev, warned “Ukraine is on the brink of civil war”, adding that he hoped the Kiev administration had “enough brains” to avoid a catastrophic escalation. He blamed the government in Kiev for creating a situation where people felt they had no choice but to rise up for their rights.

Key installations in 10 cities have now slipped out of the control of Kiev and into the hands of protesters who are demanding a referendum on the future of the country. Repeated ultimatums for the gunmen to surrender have been ignored, severely damaging the credibility of the government.

As evening fell the office of Ukraine’s acting President, Olexander Turchynov, announced that the airfield had been captured in an “anti-terrorist operation”. There were also claims that a number of public buildings in the region had been retaken; but there was no immediate verification of that on the ground.

The operation at Kramatorsk appeared to be aimed at providing a landing site for positioning forces on one approach to Slovyansk.

Airborne forces, along with Ministry of Interior police units, were at Kamianka, near Izyum, south east of Kiev, with armoured personnel carriers, light artillery and transport helicopters. Further back, an armoured bulldozer for clearing barricades had been parked near a hotel. General Vasily Krutov, commander of Ukraine’s security service, SBU, was in no doubt about the need for action or the identity of the enemy.

Ukrainian soldiers take cover near the Kramatorsk airport (Reuters) Ukrainian soldiers take cover near the Kramatorsk airport (Reuters)
“We need to destroy this foreign invader. We have intelligence agents, Russian military with long experience in all kinds of conflicts. This is about the independence of a sovereign state: we have a foreign power which is trying to detach a part of our country; we have a neighbour who does not want Ukraine to be stable,” he said.

The General also demanded severe punitive action against the protesters. Asked whether they should be given another ultimatum to disarm and leave, he maintained that would be “too humanitarian”. He added: “Unfortunately we face a difficult situation because those who planned it are hiding behind human shields. We will do everything possible to avoid civilian casualties, but unfortunately casualties do happen in wars.”

Ukrainians sing their national anthem during a pro-Kiev rally in the eastern city of Luhansk (Getty) Ukrainians sing their national anthem during a pro-Kiev rally in the eastern city of Luhansk (Getty)

Asked about criticism of the Kiev administration for the slowness of its response, General Krutov said “undercover intelligence agents of the Russian Federation” had been active. “They are real professionals and this is what is making it so difficult.”

Commander Aleksandr Radievsky, the head of the Ministry of Interior police unit, hoped that bloodshed could be avoided. “We want to see a negotiated end to this, but we cannot tolerate those who carry out abuse – we have to do our duty.”

Pro-Russian separatists in Slovyansk (Reuters) Pro-Russian separatists in Slovyansk (Reuters)
Another senior officer, who had just returned from a peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, shook his head: “I come back to this. But one shouldn’t be surprised, I think this was planned by some people a long time ago, maybe 15, 20 years ago.”

At Slovyansk, a relatively relaxed day in the sunshine turned into one of frantic defensive preparations with more barricades of concrete blocks, tyres, dead trees and bonfires thrown up. Cars arrived with groups of men carrying Kalashnikovs and boxes of ammunition. One of the men, Leonid, said as he went into a police station occupied by the protesters: “We are not just here to fight for ourselves, but the people of this city. If they capture this place, the soldiers will be followed by the Right Sector [a hard-line nationalist group] and we are going to see revenge being taken. These people fly the swastika, so you can only fear what they can do.”

A car painted in the colors of Russian flag near a Soviet-era monument to Vladimir Lenin in Donetsk (AP) A car painted in the colors of Russian flag near a Soviet-era monument to Vladimir Lenin in Donetsk (AP)
Aleksandr, a former soldier who recently joined the protests against Kiev, said: “All along we have been asking for one thing: a referendum. The junta which took over Kiev has answered by sending helicopters, armoured cars; they want violence to start. We urge soldiers not to fire on their brothers and sisters.”

As he spoke, trays of Molotov cocktails were being laid out on the pavements. Valentina, a 63-year-old grandmother, was putting loaves of bread on a table. “Do you think I would be doing this at my age if I did not believe that we were so right? The people in Kiev want to kill their own citizens. This time we need Russia to protect us, we need Putin to protect us – they are the only ones who can save us now.”

An officer in the airborne regiment was also sombre at the prospect of what may follow. A soldier of 12 years, he had served in Iraq at one of the violent times following the invasion by American and British forces. “Yes, Iraq was a lot tougher, but this is much more difficult – it is something emotional.

“We have been told that we will not be carrying out the assaults on these buildings, that will be done by the Interior Ministry police: we are just there to support them. We will only fire if we are fired on: these are the rules of engagement. I hope it does not come to that.

“We should have joined Nato as soon as possible: they could have helped us to modernise our army, and this may not have happened.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/com ... rnalSearch
Mary Dejevsky
Monday 14 April 2014
Ukraine crisis: Both sides in the conflict lay claim to the truth
It is all too easy to envisage civil war being triggered by mistake

t must be hoped officials on both sides are aware of how far not to go. It is hard to have even that degree of confidence, however, in relation to some of the charges being bandied about on Ukrainian and Russian websites and social media. For this, I am indebted to the daily Johnson’s Russia List, a non-profit compilation service provided by David Johnson at George Washington University.

The 30-item menu that arrived in my in-box 24 hours ago exposed how dangerously heated the atmosphere within Ukraine and between Ukraine and Russia has now become.

Here is just a taste: a writer on euromaidanpr.com called on Kiev to threaten a series of moves that would leave the West with no choice but to intervene. Specifically, he said Kiev should give 72 hours’ notice that it would, among other things, destroy all gas pipelines; arm all Ukrainian “patriotic citizens”; remove uranium from Ukraine’s nuclear reactors and disperse it in Russia, and prepare to “flatten” Belgorod (a city on the Russian side of the border).

None other than the acting interior minister in Kiev reported on his Facebook page that there was extensive bloodshed in Slavyansk, which was not in fact true, and that Russia had already invaded. Another report spoke of Russia laying anti-personnel mines in parts of Ukraine.

Each and every one of these reports is incendiary, with the capacity to set off a conflict that would be all the harder to resolve, because of the tissue of lies that gave it birth.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 16 Apr 2014 13:08

It is the typical European problem repeating itself with the usual instigation from the usual suspects.

Instead of being gracious winners, a zero-sum game was initiated, slowly but steadily, through stealth, deception and lies to get us to where we are now. Sitting on the Asian side, one could ask, are these people sane? Are they so deluded with their own notions - based on their own conceptions of their own power - that they will wheedle, needle, and quietly cajole a wounded animal into a corner? That's what they are doing, and the result, if there is no pull-back, will be problematic for the whole world. Irresponsible, unsophisticated, uncivilised and based on the poorest philosophical underpinnings. They have the right tools. They just don't want to use them.

There are parallels to the years between the two world wars... It seems decision makers in "the West" are being inexorably drawn into conflict, they almost seem to be acting as if in an hypnotic trance - while knowing it and watching it happen with a strange fascination.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 16 Apr 2014 13:40

Johann wrote:Virupaksha,

I'm afraid the shrillness of tone, the use bold text and exclamation points is not enough to dull Occam's razor. Or the basic reportage.

What authority does any head of government have when they no longer have the support of the legislature, the armed forces and the majority of the public?

(Deleted for abusive content - JE Menon). If saying the facts requires saying the facts as happened, that is what I will do, I dont give a damn about what I do to the queen's english while doing that.

As usual Sir Johann went house to house asking to each one whether Yanukovych lost support of the public and that is why east and south ukraine are showing such a fierce resistance to the clique.

1) Parliament's revolt against Yanukovych

The deal negotiated between the presidency and parliament (Rada) on the night of the 21st restored the previous constitution and strengthened parliament at the expense of the presidency.

This could not have *possibly* happened unless the bulk of the Party of Regions had chosen to abandon Yanukovych and end their long standing political alliance (which had continued for 4 years regardless of his formal status) with him and join the opposition, which they did.

You mean Yanukovych couldnt have signed that under threat of his life? Even after his escape, the clique couldnt round up enough to impeach Yanukovycha and you are talking about the day before.

Later that same night that a motion to impeach Yanukovych was introduced in the Rada.

Yanukovych then left Kiev. The math was obvious.

Ofcourse the match is obvious, the clique to impeach failed even a day after. When 338 were required they got 328.

The Rada has 450 members, out of which the next day 328 chose to vote to impeach Yanukovych. Even if we assume that every single one of the remaining 122 members were on his side those numbers clearly indicate that Yanukovych had overwhelmingly lost the support of the Rada and the mandate to govern.

338 were needed for impeachment and even with Yanukovych running for his life, the clique couldnt gather that many.

So obama who got directly elected by the public loses his mandate to govern when there is party hopping under threat of life and violence and the numbers of impeachment fail.

Without the bulk of public opinion, without a majority in parliament, whats left? The coercive elements of state force, and they had transferred their loyalty to parliament as well.

what public opinion, the east and south ukraine are showing what the public opinion is to this today. 97% of Crimea showed how much they hated the coup.

2) The use of force by Yanukovych, and the collapse of his authority:

The government decision to use lethal force and use the military against the protesters was made earlier, and it was designated within the government as an 'anti-terrorist operation' which was launched on the 19th, and publicly announced as such by the head of the SBU, the Ukrainian KGB successor agency.

Word for word, replace KGB with CIA and you have what the clique is doing in east and south ukraine.

The interior minister in a public statement on the 20th confirmed that live ammunition and combat weapons had now been authorised for use.

and that interior minister is part of parliament.

The whole thing was deeply divisive even within the security services. Yanukovych had to sack the Chief of the General Staff on the very first day of the operation. Two days later, the Deputy Chief of Staff resigned on the grounds that he opposed the use of regular military forces against Ukrainian citizenry.

You have a situation where ALMOST THE ENTIRE NAVY swithched sides due to their disgust with the clique.

Once Parliament restored the previous constitution, all four security service heads appeared in parliament and agreed that they would cease the use of lethal force against the Maidan protests.

The previous constitution was supposed to be restored by Yanukovych himself, just before his escape.

Those statements were made after the coup.

3) The bizarre leap from 'coup' to secession and annexation.

Lets say you're right. Yanukovych is the rightful president of the sovereign republic of Ukraine. His overthrow was a terrible crime. What on earth is he doing assisting Russia annex half of his country and turn them in to Russian citizens? How do you think he'd fair on treason charges in most countries?

Yanukovych is doing nothing.

It is ukranian people who are saying that they are disgusted by this clique and are better of voting with their feet.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Apr 2014 13:47

Some defection of soldiers on APC in South

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/u ... 64690.html

The Spiegel correspondent who first reported on the switching sides wrote about the background here (in German):

"We haven't had anything proper to eat for weeks, Kiev has abandoned us, we've had enough!" says one of the soldiers.

"We are the people" says another.

Make of that what you will.

Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) of the Guardian and The Nation who's on site says that some of the men that seized the APCs and drove them into Slaviansk were "greeted by locals" and that locals spotted "relatives among them".

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 15:03

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/456347175769759744

The Guardian ‏@guardian 1h

Pro-Russian separatists seize Ukrainian armoured vehicles http://gu.com/p/3zfv7/tw pic.twitter.com/1aZVpUQin7

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Apr 2014 15:06

I wonder how much of airborne shock troops does ukraine have to enforce order in the restive east?
per this link, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_ ... cture_2012, half the green and half the blue is russo-friendly zone. they have about the equivalent of 10 brigades incl 2 light airmobile ones.
around 300-500 operational tanks. about 3000 IFV of all hues. 40 hinds, 30 hips, 450 grads, 100 smerchs, 76 uragan, nearly 700 155mm cannons.
not a small army by any stretch...and they could their heavy guns and rockets to pound the life out of any town that has gone feral and barricaded itself. small arms militia even with RPG weapons is no match for such a conventional force except in guerilla mode.

I fear a bloodbath is coming soon , and that will trigger the looming civil war or limited russian army incursion into the east to setup safe zones for their sympathizers and midwife the birth of several new 'Stans and autonomous republics like tatarstan....they could also release stocks of late model RPGs , Kornets and heavy explosives to the militias..just as the West parachuted in Milan ATGMs to the berber freedom fighters in the libya thing.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Apr 2014 15:50

^^ Well I hope not any one has to die because of the stupidity of Maidan Government.

They can easily negotiate with the East and get a federal structure in place and get this things fixed.

I suspect the coup lead government is making most of limited time ....making most of the money they can till next elections kick in and then they would flee to west european country and would be darling of Chatterati and Seminarian circuit on how they saved Ukraine from Evil Russia and brought in Democracy and Freedom of Speech while the new government will have to clean their mess.

Down the line EU will also dump Ukraine when they realise the IMF reforms has created more problems in the society and this is the next Greece in the making..... will be termed Toxic Asset and dumped somewhere.

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 16 Apr 2014 15:53

The protein fed UKBapZis are being provoked to start a conventional campaign against the east. At this Russia will bomb/missile the hell out of all of wannabe Europeon Ukrainian infrastructure, C3I and conventional units and leave the rest to the militias to sort out. Low cost for Russia, very bad for the UkBapZis. Bad as it may sound I'd want the Russians to missile the hell out of the UKBapzis. Should be a lesson for all the yankee poodles all over the world to keep their own counsel and not bark at massa's command.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Apr 2014 16:02

It seems the Russian Flag on APC was a strategy to penetrate pro-Russian areas by Ukraine Military

Ukrainian troops fly Russian flags to deceive protesters in order to penetrate Kramatorsk - Batkivshchyna party leader

Ukrainian troops rode into the town of Kramatorsk in the eastern Donetsk region on Wednesday in armored personnel carriers flying Russian flags in order to penetrate the town, leader of the Batkivshchyna party faction in Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada (parliament) Sergei Sobolev told reporters in Kiev, the Russian Business Channel-Ukraine correspondent reports.

Earlier, Ukraine's acting Defense Minister Mikhail Koval acknowledged the incident.

"Our troops used a guerrilla-style method to penetrate areas controlled by armed units of the Russian Federation and the separatists financed by Russia. I think that this will be reported within three hours or so and you will realize that it was a breakthrough that enabled our units to advance. That's the official information from the defense minister," Sobolev said.

At around 11:30 am on Wednesday, three APCs flying Russian flags reportedly entered Kramatorsk. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry initially denied those reports.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 16:25

CNN International ‏@cnni 4h

Estonia’s leader calls for “physical" deterrence against Putin’s forces: http://cnn.it/1ewnVl3

In an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Tuesday, Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves called for a "physical presence on the ground" in the region as a deterrence against Russia.

Estonia, a former Soviet republic that shares a border with Russia, is now a member of NATO. Its leadership has been outspoken expressing concern about Russia's incursion into Ukraine.

...
The question for those countries is how they can rein in President Putin. Two rounds of sanctions targeting Russian and former Ukrainian leaders seem to thus far have had little effect on changing Putin’s thinking.

“I think the consequences of his actions will lead to a dramatic downturn that we already are beginning to see in the economy of Russia,” Ilves said.

The European Union will likely, the president said, extend the list of “sanctions and sanctioned individuals” at its next meeting of heads of state.

“Is that enough,” Amanpour asked, “to deter President Putin?”

“We don't know,” President Ilves said. “Now that's our problem.”

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Apr 2014 16:46

Pro-Russian separatists seize Ukrainian armoured vehicles

I hope the UkBapZis donate some of those attack helicopters as well.

Johann: I think this is the report I have been waiting for:

"Our troops used a guerrilla-style method to penetrate areas controlled by armed units of the Russian Federation and the separatists financed by Russia. I think that this will be reported within three hours or so and you will realize that it was a breakthrough that enabled our units to advance. That's the official information from the defense minister," Sobolev said.
At around 11:30 am on Wednesday, three APCs flying Russian flags reportedly entered Kramatorsk. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry initially denied those reports.

"We flew the enemy's flag to ride into the towns where our voters live, and the voters greeted us with flowers, women rushed out to kiss us, babies handed us their candy, thereby proving the absolute popularity and legitimacy of our terrorist government until they realized who we were!"

Not to mention the brilliance of our leaders to crow about that achievement. Of course, I assume that this just Russian propaganda, or did the UkBabZi actually say this?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 16:55

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/456372544166043650

CNN Breaking News ‏@cnnbrk 1h

2 Ukrainian soldiers, 1 of them an officer, taken hostage by "extremists," Ukrainian Defense Ministry says. http://cnn.it/1naNTxk

https://twitter.com/nprnews/status/456402419870490624

NPR News ‏@nprnews 2m

In Ukraine: Reports Of Soldiers Switching To Pro-Russia Side http://n.pr/1gFQ9IX

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 16 Apr 2014 17:12

UlanBatori wrote:
Johann: I think this is the report I have been waiting for:
"Our troops used a guerrilla-style method to penetrate areas controlled by armed units of the Russian Federation and the separatists financed by Russia. I think that this will be reported within three hours or so and you will realize that it was a breakthrough that enabled our units to advance. That's the official information from the defense minister," Sobolev said.
At around 11:30 am on Wednesday, three APCs flying Russian flags reportedly entered Kramatorsk. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry initially denied those reports.

"We flew the enemy's flag to ride into the towns where our voters live, and the voters greeted us with flowers, women rushed out to kiss us, babies handed us their candy, thereby proving the absolute popularity and legitimacy of our terrorist government until they realized who we were!"

Not to mention the brilliance of our leaders to crow about that achievement. Of course, I assume that this just Russian propaganda, or did the UkBabZi actually say this?

No idea yet what is going on - but I wonder where they got the idea from.... I wouldn't say that the way the pro-Russian forces showed up or were armed has been exactly transparent either. No names, no insignia, no flags, no nothing, but mysteriously springing up and seizing key points. I'm very fond of the 'cossacks' mentioned in one of Philips heavily bolded links who can't quite seem to recall what town or country they're actually from when asked by reporters.

Things are going to very confusing at this rate - all of these people black and green and no badges with nothing but coloured ribbons on their arms. Russians pretending to be Russian Ukrainians, and now Ukrainians pretending to be Russian Ukrainians. Its turning in to an Asterix farce.

On the whole though I'd say both sides are sharply jockeying for position using every trick they can think of, but short of actual live fire assault. Both sides seem to be taking care not to actually go into real combat and start a shooting war. That is a sign of hope.

Singha wrote:I wonder how much of airborne shock troops does ukraine have to enforce order in the restive east?
per this link, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_ ... cture_2012, half the green and half the blue is russo-friendly zone. they have about the equivalent of 10 brigades incl 2 light airmobile ones.
around 300-500 operational tanks. about 3000 IFV of all hues. 40 hinds, 30 hips, 450 grads, 100 smerchs, 76 uragan, nearly 700 155mm cannons.
not a small army by any stretch...and they could their heavy guns and rockets to pound the life out of any town that has gone feral and barricaded itself. small arms militia even with RPG weapons is no match for such a conventional force except in guerilla mode.

As I've said I don't think either side wants an actual shooting war, even though one could happen by accident if the tension keeps building.

Ukrainian defence spending is something like 1/50th of Russian spending, and has been for years. Their defence preparedness is low - they haven't faced insurgencies, they weren't planning for a war with Russia, and they aren't part of NATO so there isn't the same tempo of operations and exercises.

Just getting all those conventional forces to a point of operational readiness, let alone actually moving them to assembly points or their objectives, keeping them supplied and managing the operation is going to be a stretch. They're just not prepared, and I suspect they are desperately trying to catch up now. All reservists are on standby for call up, but I don't think the reserves would be able to field much beyond very light infantry without a lot of logistical support.

Ukrainian ground based air defences are potentially their most effective in the event of a conventional Russian invasion, but the Russians are said to have spent a lot of time trying to understand what they got wrong in terms of air operations over Georgia, which had much more conflict.

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 16 Apr 2014 17:56

Paging Yogi Patel
Vikram a Vyas
Please chip in with your timely wisdom

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 16 Apr 2014 18:40

A few links :

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/15/world ... ssia-east- ukraine.html?_r=1
http://monitorglobaloutlook.com/how-eas ... y-may-impa ct-ukraine-crisis/
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/En ... s/2014/041 5/Ukraine-crisis-How-will-energy-influence-May-elections

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 16 Apr 2014 18:51

Cossacks

Ah, yes, I wondered about that too. Of course, Johann, I recognize that the report about the UkBapZi Minister bragging, came from Russia News, and separately we read that a few APCs defected, so it is entirely possible that the picture of an APC flying a Russian flag is from that event, and the Minister's statement could be a fabrication.

Per Wikipedia,

Cossacks (Ukrainian: козаки́, koza'ky; Russian: каза́ки, ka'zaki), are a group of predominantly East Slavic people who became known as members of democratic, semi-military communities,[1] predominantly located in Ukraine and in Southern Russia. They inhabited sparsely populated areas and islands in the lower Dnieper,[2] Don, Terek, and Ural river basins and played an important role in the historical and cultural development of both Russia and Ukraine.[3]

Entirely possible that anyone from the Crimea that is associated with the Russian military is described as a Cossack. Sort-of like Gurkhas, maybe? The particular report was associated with a not-so-nonviolent takeover of one of the Ukrainian Navy bases, so I assumed that the term was used to indicate "Oh! those were Cossacks, you don't mess with THEM!"

So far, East Ukraine events have been characterized by amazing restraint: locals come out and sort-of argue and convince the Army to go back. Never heard of this happening elsewhere. Suggests either very soft orders, or very little agreement with the orders. Given that they haven't been paid or fed properly for months, the latter is entirely probable, and the Russians may be able to get mass defections/surrenders simply by offering hot food and shelter and spending money for the families of the soldiers. Given this, I was pretty amazed by the continued resistance of the guys in those Crimean Navy Bases: their top officers had left, they had no ships, they were cut off from land or air access to Kiev, no hope of reinforcement OR rescue, angry mobs outside the gates, their own families stuck outside the gates and not allowed to even bring them food, and the armed Balaclava-clad guys were the only 'protection' that they had from the mobs. I saw somewhere that the Russians actually sympathized with them - which may also have been good psy-ops to get a quick surrender.

I think the same is likely to happen to all Ukrainian forces that have crossed the Dnieper. The use of attack helicopters suggests that land-based access is very difficult already. Soon the guys east of the Dnieper may realize that they can't get back across the river either.

And I would be VERY surprised if there isn't a quick rise in the number of hefty vodka-bearing Nice Guys on the streets of Kharkiv etc (who just happened to diffuse in across the border..)