Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 15 Feb 2022 22:51

Rudradev wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:

The American jokers are saying Feb. 16th including Bloomberg. Germany, France, and even the UK are saying hold on.
Oh, fantastic. Tomorrow (Feb 16th) I will be on a non-stop AI flight from Newark to Mumbai. Usual flight path clips eastern Ukraine. Both sides use those Buk ADS platforms which are not known to discriminate between civilian airliners and bogies very well

Change it Saar if possible. But thenAI is not that dumb to fly over dangerous region.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 15 Feb 2022 23:19

I flew over eastern Ukraine about 12 days before MH17 in 2014, DEL-AMS by KLM. The Russian SAM system missiles are good, but faulty radar detection. In 1983, they shot down a Korean Airlines KAL 007 JFK-ICN by mistake. In 1987, the USN shot down an Iranian airliner over the Gulf, and at that time they did take precautions to verify detection (and not watch pron below deck while automated systems were running).

If a war does breakout, no matter who started it, all civilian flights to India from Europe and North America will be disrupted. Flying over Russia will stop by many airlines.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 16 Feb 2022 00:04

Tanaji wrote:Johnson said he will do everything it could to help… which is what exactly?

In a good team, everyone plays to their strengths. Johnson will arrange the refreshments:

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 16 Feb 2022 02:46

kit wrote: looks like they wont let go the tigers tail even when it tries to walk off

Only 10K troops out of 130K troops have been sent back to their base(s).

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 16 Feb 2022 03:15

The western media are all very glum and still talking hopefully about a Russian attack. You can tell they all wanted this war so badly and are very disappointed now. I think in the back door talks with Germany and France, they agreed not to vote for Ukraine's NATO membership if Russia stands down. They won't admit this publicly, of course. The US media will spin this as a foreign policy victory for Biden (we stood up to the evil Russians and they blinked, etc) while the Russian media will say "our security concerns were met, diplomacy succeeded, the Americans are hysterical idiots, etc). Both sides claim victory.

I'm glad India stayed neutral in all this.

Of course, the US could still get the war they seek by convincing the Ukrainians to attack Donbas while the Russians are demobilizing (like the Georgians tried with S. Ossetia in 2008 - a quick blitzkrieg to take back the disputed territory). Even if Ukraine starts it, the fighting would be on Ukrainian territory so the Russians would still be branded the aggressor if they come to the aid of Donbas. The US would still get the war they wanted, sanctions on Russia, end of Nord Stream 2, etc.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 16 Feb 2022 06:41

Mort Walker wrote:I flew over eastern Ukraine about 12 days before MH17 in 2014, DEL-AMS by KLM. The Russian SAM system missiles are good, but faulty radar detection. In 1983, they shot down a Korean Airlines KAL 007 JFK-ICN by mistake. In 1987, the USN shot down an Iranian airliner over the Gulf, and at that time they did take precautions to verify detection (and not watch pron below deck while automated systems were running).

If a war does breakout, no matter who started it, all civilian flights to India from Europe and North America will be disrupted. Flying over Russia will stop by many airlines.

I have seen Russian reports about Korean plane. It was a CIA operation to sneak on Russian installations. Hence Koreans paid the price.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 16 Feb 2022 06:50

Y. Kanan wrote:... while the Russian media will say "our security concerns were met, diplomacy succeeded, the Americans are hysterical idiots, etc). Both sides claim victory ...

Not so fast. Russia can keep doing it again and again and yet again. A lot of Americans do believe that "Americans are hysterical idiots". Nobody wants wars except SDOTUS.

Russia withdrew only 10K troops.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 16 Feb 2022 07:05

Russia can keep doing it again and again and yet again.

vayutuvan saar,doing what again and again? Not clear. Russians live in Russia, Americans don't, assuming you mean coming back to take a piece of Ukraine.

And meanwhile, it is now Feb 16th in the USA, and Biden has spoken and it is now officially a crisis -- Following headline courtesy of the American Rentboys at the Indian express.

Russia Ukraine Crisis Live News, Ukraine Crisis News Today: A series of cyberattacks Tuesday knocked the websites of the Ukrainian army, the defense ministry and major banks offline.

https://indianexpress.com/article/world ... a-7774499/

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 16 Feb 2022 12:02

I was promised an invasion today by Biden and Boris. Is it time yet?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 16 Feb 2022 12:14

Tanaji wrote:I was promised an invasion today by Biden and Boris. Is it time yet?

The invasion is as imminent as Assad fall.

As real as WMD in Iraq.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 16 Feb 2022 12:26

Meanwhile Jan Psaki says they can sanction Russia even if there is no invasion. The earlier theory of carving up the international stage between US and China seems to be proving true.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 16 Feb 2022 12:40

Tanaji wrote:Meanwhile Jan Psaki says they can sanction Russia even if there is no invasion. The earlier theory of carving up the international stage between US and China seems to be proving true.

This will just push Russia deeper in bed with PRC.

G2 construct of Obama's administration is coming true.

OTOH, if this Psaki character says water makes you wet. I will not believe her. Such is her credibility in my view.

kit · Post by **kit** » 16 Feb 2022 14:50

Pratyush wrote:
Tanaji wrote:Meanwhile Jan Psaki says they can sanction Russia even if there is no invasion. The earlier theory of carving up the international stage between US and China seems to be proving true.

This will just push Russia deeper in bed with PRC.

G2 construct of Obama's administration is coming true.

OTOH, if this Psaki character says water makes you wet. I will not believe her. Such is her credibility in my view.

Boris of uk is pushing for "deeper" engagement with China as if on cue

kit · Post by **kit** » 16 Feb 2022 16:10

Soros to Obama ; where is my war ? .. i need to make moooree.. Obama: calm down budyy..Bore is is working on it.. Soros: i dont believe you, he is a nicompoop ..call mami..i know she likes me.. or better you call Biden and make it happen...

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 16 Feb 2022 21:35

https://twitter.com/MuradGazdiev/status ... 8818151425

The Russian Foreign Ministry has called on Western media outlets to publish a full list of dates on which Russia will invade Ukraine for the year ahead, so Russian diplomats can schedule their vacations accordingly.

This is not satire. They did this

kit · Post by **kit** » 16 Feb 2022 22:18

kit · Post by **kit** » 16 Feb 2022 22:22

https://tass.com/world/1404247

MOSCOW, February 16. /TASS/. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has jokingly asked American and British media outlets to release a schedule of Russia’s "upcoming invasions" of Ukraine for the current year.

"I’d like to request US and British disinformation: Bloomberg, The New York Times and The Sun media outlets to publish the schedule for our upcoming invasions for the year. I’d like to plan my vacation," the Russian diplomat said on her Telegram channel Wednesday.

The West and Kiev have recently been echoing allegations about Russia’s potential invasion of Ukraine recently. Western media outlets keep enthusiastically announcing "the date of invasion," which has been repeatedly postponed. In particular, according to the Politico newspaper, US President Joe Biden claimed that Russia could allegedly attack Ukraine on February 16. This steady disinformation blitz by the Western media has already resulted in a sharp deterioration of Kiev’s economic situation, with investments and businesses fleeing Ukraine, while the energy prices in Europe are growing. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov castigated these statements as an "empty and groundless" escalation of tensions, emphasizing that Russia posed no threat to anyone.

kit · Post by **kit** » 16 Feb 2022 23:13

and meanwhile in an interesting development ..

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/202 ... ar-weapons

In December, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko went on Russian state television to offer to host Russian nuclear weapons on Belarus’s territory. This will be made possible by a little-noticed change to Belarus’s constitution set to come into effect on 27 February.

On 27 December 2021, Belarus published proposed changes to its constitution and submitted them for public comment. Their subsequent approval has paved the way for a 27 February 2022 referendum on the adoption of the new constitution

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 17 Feb 2022 01:30

Tanaji wrote:Meanwhile Jan Psaki says they can sanction Russia even if there is no invasion. The earlier theory of carving up the international stage between US and China seems to be proving true.

Just now a GOP senator came on Fox. He said GOP senators have already drafted something on sanctions. Probably it will happen. Then Putin will say that is casus belli. That is the reason why Canadian PM declared an emergency to crack down on the truckers. Otherwise, gas prices will go up drastically in the US itself.

Psaki touched upon that aspect as well in her presser.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 17 Feb 2022 01:40

srikandan wrote:vayutuvan saar,doing what again and again? Not clear. Russians live in Russia, Americans don't, assuming you mean coming back to take a piece of Ukraine.

That is what I meant. He may not even want to take a piece of Ukraine but conduct exercises in the winter of 2023 going into march 2024. By then 2024 election season will be in gearing up. Some analysts are saying that agree to not inducting Ukraine into NATO and wait out Putin. Probably Russian strategists have taken that into account.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 17 Feb 2022 01:42

Pratyush wrote:As real as WMD in Iraq.

Psaki said that "WMD in Iraq" was to start a war. This administration is trying to prevent a war.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 17 Feb 2022 02:41

vayutuvan: He may not even want to take a piece of Ukraine but conduct exercises in the winter of 2023 going into march 2024. By then 2024 election season will be in gearing up. Some analysts are saying that agree to not inducting Ukraine into NATO and wait out Putin. Probably Russian strategists have taken that into account.

Russia after Putin is an unknown quantity, but in the short term Russia is countering NATO by installing Russian nukes in Belarus, for example. Looks like EU and Russia have decided to de-escalate, but the US will try other ways of keeping this burning,though by all appearances even the Ukrainian govt. has had enough of the US escalation.Of course, not reported by US media for obvious reasons.

https://www.rt.com/russia/549477-ukrain ... -invasion/

https://www.rt.com/russia/546550-ukrain ... -invasion/

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 17 Feb 2022 09:12

What's going on? Russians are standing down but Biden's people continue to act like invasion is all but certain. What do they know that we don't? I find it hard to believe they would make complete fools of themselves unless they knew the war was going to happen, and the only way they could know that is if they already have a plan underway. Maybe they've pressured Zelensky into launching an offensive on the Donbas pocket. The Ukrainians have more than 125,000 troops currently massed on the border, with 2500+ tanks and armored vehicles, plenty of artillery and MLRS systems, Turkish drones, Javelins and all kinds of potent anti-tank munitions that would be very useful in an offensive role against bunkers, dug in vehicles, buildings and so on. Ukraine can overwhelm Donbas pretty quickly if they launch a determined attack. Russia would have to intervene, but because the fighting would be mostly on Ukrainian territory, Russia would still be branded as the aggressor.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 17 Feb 2022 10:28

What's going on is a scandal involving Boris Johnson in UK. Where he was having parties when the queen was mourning alone for Prince Philip.

The Democratic party are facing blowback for corona lockdowns and woke BS. Coupled with non transitory inflation. The republicans are thinking that a war will help the MIC with high stock prices and jobs.

These are the strongest voices in favour of Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Interestingly I was listening to Stephane Kothin in uncommon knowledge interview. He is clear that the Russian leadership are going to keep pushing forward to change the outcome of the post 91 settlement. But they will not be going to go to war because the population is not in favour of going to war. He was also quite critical of the western leadership in allowing for this situation to emerge.

I am linking the interview for reference. It is divided in 5+1 questions. Covering multiple topics including Russia, PRC and US.

It's nearly one hour long. But is quite good.

I am not envious of anything that comes out of the west. But I am quite envious that none of our universities have a structured program such as uncommon knowledge. Where the host has done his homework and is quite well acquainted with the works of the person he is interviewing.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 17 Feb 2022 18:46

Looks like US and UK are ensuring war will happen even if Russia is de-escalating:

More now from Nato's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who has been defending the right of nations such as Ukraine to seek membership of the alliance - something strongly opposed by Russia.

"We cannot accept a return to the age of spheres of influence where big powers bully, intimidate or dictate to others," he tells the press conference.

Stoltenberg also says Nato is considering sending "battle groups" to Romania and elsewhere in the south-east of the alliance's territory.

“Nato has to respond when we see aggressive actions by Russia," he says, while calling for dialogue and de-escalation from Moscow.

Also we have statements such as

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says joining the Nato alliance is a guarantee of security for his country - and that he will not compromise on this
He tells the BBC: "It's not an ambition. It's our life."

Basically goading Russia to attack

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 17 Feb 2022 20:57

^^^^
Russia has 4,000 nuclear weapons. What exactly about NATO makes them insecure? NATO has nil appetite for war with Russia.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 17 Feb 2022 21:21

eklavya wrote:^^^^
Russia has 4,000 nuclear weapons. What exactly about NATO makes them insecure? NATO has nil appetite for war with Russia.

So why did Kennedy take it to the brink in 1962? Didnt he have nuclear weapons? Sauce for the goose and all that…

And the assertion that Nato has nil appetite for a war is not supported given the interventions of US bringing freedom and democracy everywhere in the past 20 years.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 17 Feb 2022 21:38

^^^^
No one is placing nuclear armed missiles in Ukraine. And the US does not attack even 4th rate nuclear powers like N Korea and Pakistan. Russia can turn the US into a wasteland 10 times over. NATO has nil appetite for a war with Russia.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 17 Feb 2022 22:22

eklavya wrote:^^^^
No one is placing nuclear armed missiles in Ukraine. And the US does not attack even 4th rate nuclear powers like N Korea and Pakistan. Russia can turn the US into a wasteland 10 times over. NATO has nil appetite for a war with Russia.

Nuclear attack on Russia, probably not. Salami slicing by creating orange revolutions in its provinces and then threatening sanctions if Russia responds 100% on the cards. This playbook has been played many times over in various parts of the world.

It’s for Russia to decide its red lines and if that includes not having NATO on its doorstep then that’s their call. Not everyone is meek like India.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 17 Feb 2022 23:03

Based on the shelling that's now breaking out, I think the US plan is: Ukrainians use the shelling as an excuse to attack Donbas, which forces Russia to come to the rescue of the separatists. Since the fighting is taking place on ostensibly Ukrainian territory, Russia gets branded as the aggressor and this justifies ruinous sanctions, forces Europe to buy more expensive US natural gas, revitalizes NATO, justifies ever-higher US military spending, and sucks Russia into a bloody, expensive war they didn't want. This also gives US an excuse to deploy more forces to the region and gives Turkey and Israel the opportunity to push the Russians out of Syria. This is looking like an attack on Russia across multiple theatres. I just hope the Russians don't panic and get sucked into full on war, though clearly Washington is hoping that they will.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 17 Feb 2022 23:37

This is the much hyped false flag I guess--->

Russia's shelling of Stanytsia Luhanska in Ukrainian govt-controlled territory in Donbas hit a kindergarten, injured 2 teachers, & knocked out power in the village...This attack, as with so many others, is a heinous Russian violation of Minsk Agreements..: US Embassy, Kyiv

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/14943684 ... 23UEw&s=19

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 17 Feb 2022 23:39

They're blaming Russia for the shelling... Russia will ofcourse deny it...
Sanctions will definitely be there, war or no war...

kit · Post by **kit** » 17 Feb 2022 23:47

LakshmanPST wrote:They're blaming Russia for the shelling... Russia will ofcourse deny it...
Sanctions will definitely be there, war or no war...

indeed question is would they cross the rubicon.. blocking SWIFT .. otherwise it will be forcing Germany etc ..to forego Nordstream 2.

But Russia does have alternative nations as well as thinking of a new pipeline..this time through Pakistan ..especially relevant in this context

https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/n ... e-proposed

As part of efforts to tackle Pakistan’s energy shortages. It has been agreed, by both the Pakistan and Russian governments to explore the viability of building a 1,100-km gas pipeline from Port Qasim in Karachi to Lahore at an estimated cost of USD 2.5-3 billion by the end of 2023. The project is called the Pakstream Gas Pipeline Project commonly known as North-South Gas project. It will enable LNG imports from such gas producers as Oman, Qatar, Russia, the US, and Australia to deliver gas to customers in Pakistan’s interiors, such as power plants, factories, and cities.

Pakistan and Russia have signed an agreement for the construction of about 1,100-km gas pipeline from Port Qasim in Karachi to Lahore at an estimated cost of USD 2.5-3 billion by the end of 2023.

The Pakstream Gas Pipeline Project is a joint venture, using a special purpose vehicle funding model, with Pakistani interests holding 74 percent and Russian interests 26 percent. However, the terms of the agreement enable Russian interests to withdraw from the venture if the project proves not feasible or increase their share holding to 49 percent.

The Russian side will assemble funding for foreign exchange components through suppliers' credit or typical project financing to cover imported items like steel, consultancies, pipelines and related products and materials not available in Pakistan. The concession agreement for the pipeline will remain in force for 25-30 years. The pipeline size was agreed at 56-inch diameter to accommodate for next 30-40 years of energy needs in the country that will make sure 700-800 million cubic feet per day (mmfcd) of free gas flow, which can go up to 2,000mmcfd with compressors.

The next steps will be the signing shareholders' agreement, financial agreement, gas transportation agreement and lenders agreement during which time the Russian side will complete the front-end engineering design (FEED) and the Pakistani side will arrange dollar financing of local currency component against Rs321bn worth of Gas Infrastructure Development Cess.

Of course this whole thing is definitely NOT in Indias interests, but would give Russia a foothold to export their hydrocarbons into Asia

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 18 Feb 2022 01:01

LakshmanPST wrote:They're blaming Russia for the shelling... Russia will ofcourse deny it...
Sanctions will definitely be there, war or no war...

The germans may be more than willing to break such sanctions.

They are finding themselves in an increasingly dicey situation and they are certainly economically sound enough to speak up

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 18 Feb 2022 02:21

Tanaji wrote:Salami slicing by creating orange revolutions in its provinces and then threatening sanctions if Russia responds 100% on the cards. This playbook has been played many times over in various parts of the world.

I don’t see how Ukraine joining NATO encourages “orange revolutions” inside Russia. Putin starting an unnecessary war and tanking the economy would make him even more unpopular internally. If he responds to that Lukashenko-style, by dialling up repressive measures against his own population, he will only have himself to thank for the mess he has created.

kit · Post by **kit** » 18 Feb 2022 03:15

eklavya wrote:
Tanaji wrote:Salami slicing by creating orange revolutions in its provinces and then threatening sanctions if Russia responds 100% on the cards. This playbook has been played many times over in various parts of the world.
I don’t see how Ukraine joining NATO encourages “orange revolutions” inside Russia. Putin starting an unnecessary war and tanking the economy would make him even more unpopular internally. If he responds to that Lukashenko-style, by dialling up repressive measures against his own population, he will only have himself to thank for the mess he has created.

Big countries need buffer states for peace and growth, proximity between rival powers weakens the state.. look how much India had to invest because of Pakistan for example. The rise of USA is case in point. Look what loss of the Tibet buffer had done to two ancient civilisations.

And yes it becomes easier to influence local politics breakaway and splinter groups inside the country if a rival power camps next door., and that is indeed the idea of NATO in Ukraine.,

more like tying the bell to the cat in geopolitics

mody · Post by **mody** » 18 Feb 2022 15:53

Russia has been issuing passports to residents of Donbaas on a mass scale. Already more than 7,25,000 technically Ukrainian citizens have been given Russian passports.More than 30% of the population in Donetsk and Luhansk now have Russian passports. They are also allowed to vote in Russia.

If Ukraine launches a major offensive to retake control of Donbas, it would do so only on prompting from US and UK. Maybe the Germans and the French would see it for what it is.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 18 Feb 2022 15:57

Isn’t the next invasion date set for 20th Feb by Biden babu?

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 18 Feb 2022 16:18

Why is ImmyDimmy so keen to visit Russia now? I'm thinking its not really for money, Russia is not known for being a generous donor for troubled countries or basket cases. He has some other bargain to sell that may seemingly benefit Russia in the current standoff but will be detrimental to India's interests. I'm wondering what it can be?

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 18 Feb 2022 16:31

Pakistan and Russia have signed a pact for 1,100-km gas pipeline from Karachi to Lahore