Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 08:31

VVV if this be true and there is a good chance it is, there is a chance the benghazi attack was orchestrated by enemies of the US-Saud plan or by dissident faction of the US deep state itself to discredit gotus and esp hillary with an eye to the future.

http://www.mintpressnews.com/215993-2/215993/

OPNINION — In an interview with Alternet.org, the independent investigative reporter Seymour Hersh was asked about Hillary Clinton’s role in the Benghazi Libya consulate’s operation to collect sarin from Libyan stockpiles and send it through Turkey into Syria for a set-up sarin-gas attack, to be blamed on Assad in order to ‘justify’ the US invading Syria, as it had invaded Libya.

He said: «That ambassador who was killed, he was known as a guy, from what I understand, as somebody, who would not get in the way of the CIA. As I wrote, on the day of the mission he was meeting with the CIA base chief and the shipping company. He was certainly involved, aware and witting of everything that was going on. And there’s no way somebody in that sensitive of a position is not talking to the boss, by some channel».

This was, in fact, the Syrian part of the State Department’s Libyan operation, Obama’s operation to set up an excuse for the US doing in Syria what they had already done in Libya.

The interviewer then asked: «In the book [Hersh’s The Killing of Osama bin Laden, just out] you quote a former intelligence official as saying that the White House rejected 35 target sets [for the planned US invasion of Syria] provided by the Joint Chiefs as being insufficiently painful to the Assad regime. (You note that the original targets included military sites only – nothing by way of civilian infrastructure.) Later the White House proposed a target list that included civilian infrastructure. What would the toll to civilians have been if the White House’s proposed strike had been carried out?»

Hersh responded by saying that the US tradition in that regard has long been to ignore civilian casualties; i.e., collateral damage of US attacks is okay or even desired (so as to terrorize the population into surrender) – not an ‘issue’, except, perhaps, for the PR people.

The interviewer asked why Obama is so obsessed to replace Assad in Syria, since «The power vacuum that would ensue would open Syria up to all kinds of jihadi groups»; and Hersh replied that not only he, but the Joint Chiefs of Staff, «nobody could figure out why».

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 08:33

unlike Libya where Qadhafi giving up all his offensive weapons could not save him from regime change, in Syria the imminent invasion/air attacks/no fly zone was miraculously thwarted by Assad giving up some chemical weapons that too without much of UN oversight to poke around and find fake WMDs under every rock. this is very hard to believe.

behind the scenes, Russia would have drawn a red line in the sand and held out various threats for the hawks to back down...having been conned once in Libya they were very careful this time. preparation for the deployment in syria must have started in secret months from the actual date.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 08:38

the US deep state seems to have divergence in syria policy between the CIA and the Pentagon ... with both competing for POTUS approval ...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 08:41

2 brand new looking BMPs captured by saa + civilian defenders in north hama

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Crh2yNeWIAAsbDY.jpg

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 08:42

the idea I had been referring to...the gates of Mordor beckon...

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 16h16 hours ago
Iraq's Haraket al-Nujba claims capture of Khan Touman depots in south Aleppo countryside

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 08:42

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 08:43

khan touman on the outside and Ramouseh urban district on the inside is the minimum needed to secure this flank and supply route.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 09:04

turkey gets its buffer zone in 12 days

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 09:06

all the northern approaches of Al Bab can be fired upon by Turkiye 155mm cannons without crossing the border. they already have well prepared firing positions stocked with ammo north of the border and no counter-battery threats to need movement.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 09:07

its a variant of the K9 thunder..which we have also selected but done nothing about so far.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 05 Sep 2016 09:28

The main artillery being used in Syria is IRAM. These are improvised rockets short range 1-5km and warheads of 50-500kg. I wonder whether we/Indian military is taking any lessons from Syrian conflict or we are all import import the costliest gold plated sanction prone useless junk.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 10:03

if you mean the short bank of tubes mounted on the backs of technicals , they are no more useful or powerful than 120mm mortars and with less of a firing rate and less plunging effect on trenches and bunkers.

the "raiding" nature of the war in syria and libya and the lack of artillery support from back of the line means these localized "organic" artillery are quite useful. a regular army will just call in fires from division or corps artillery regiments.

not that "raiding" forces are bad, infact the concept could be quite useful in tibet front where the largest unit is unlikely to be above brigade size. and vast open stretches of Sindh too.

germany had a 120mm SP mortar named wiesel and russia has something as well tulypan 240mm . not sure if either are in service anymore.

a unit of these could wreck havoc after being air dropped somewhere, if enough rounds were available. typical russi kit - rough looking but packs a bite when massed.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 10:08

russia and usa are the only two countries the size of continents + they both worship the gods of war like nobody else....endless cycles devoted to developing weapons

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Sep 2016 10:49

>> preparation for the deployment in syria must have started in secret months from the actual date.

Mr. Putin bluffed his enemy by making them think he was preparing to deploy troops in Ukraine and that is what must have been circulated internally too so that in case there is a leak, and there will always be leaks, the enemy would think he would deploy troops in Ukraine. Being conservative in positioning himself until then, the americans too must have thought that to be most probable.

But Mr. Putin went ahead and deployed his troops in Syria. His deployment was not in Ukraine because he could always stabilize Ukraine, and Ukraine was a bluff created by the west. He deployed in Syria and created unbelievable pressure on US assets in that theatre, so much so that it slowly came to pass in Duplicity that now Russia is playing in Syria and Ukraine and we can lose both. Deploy further ahead to protect the near borders.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Sep 2016 10:56

Singha wrote:the US deep state seems to have divergence in syria policy between the CIA and the Pentagon ... with both competing for POTUS approval ...

the problem in USA for quite some time has been that the pro-Israel pro-war lobby, which is also appropriately called "Neo"con has infiltrated state dept and does not care about loss of lives, civilian or otherwise. As someone said, both Saudis and Israelis can fight to the last american.

the actual heavy lifting is done by son-of-soil types in Pentagon and there was always going to be a divergence between jaw-jaw rhetorical types who didn't really care about loss in lives, as long as it wasn't their own and folks who actually had to wade through the murky waters. When Russia came into the picture the heavy lifting Pentagon-types must have told the SD types, .. "hey, if you are so gung-ho, go in there yourself". And the state dept went in with ISIS and Nusra with embedded Headley types in their midst who passed info and communications and arranged logistics. But this group was going to flop heavily when it met a real battle group and the Pentagon types wouldn't intervene on their behalf.

even today you can see Russia has not given the killer blow, they are relishing the situation and daily insult to their enemy.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 11:12

yes we have the rare sight of CIA/SD fed FSA and other munnas fighting Pentagon fed YPG and new syrian army.

this same thing happened in Afpak where pentagon wanted to violate TSPs backside with x-durand line ops and CIA/SD put a veto on it.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Sep 2016 11:13

Syrian T-72 Survives ATGM By Using Thermal-Fume Equipment

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Sep 2016 11:19

https://twitter.com/_Kurd_

after evaluating this twitter account. One cannot but arrive on the conclusion that the whole idea behind a kurdish state is for 'Neo"cons to fight against Iran one day. Iranian Kurds will be subverted and lead the attack from the North and baluch & afghans from south. The plan is to create a separate country Kurdistan from which Iraq/Syria/Iran/Turkey can be harassed and attacked in the future.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 Sep 2016 11:20

US, Russia fail to reach an agreement at G20 talks to end the violence in Syria, US official says.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/05/polit ... index.html

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Sep 2016 11:30

Mr. Putin is making a point to Erdogan using his finger, who like an obedient schoolboy is all attention, while Obama way across the room is stretching his neck to see or hear what is being said.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 12:03

>> Iranian Kurds will be subverted and lead the attack from the North

this has already happened. attacks and counterattacks have been going on in western iran for months now . the iranians have cracked down harshly on this.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 05 Sep 2016 13:16

Both sides will have lip readers to keep watch on the other.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 05 Sep 2016 16:26

Singha wrote:India still talks to Pakistan. ...

And we hammer Indian PMs for dong so. But we continue to hold Putin as the ideal macho man.

My problem is that Turkey, the islamist terrorism supporting state, the ideological and political friend of TSP, is being courted by US and Russia despite showing a middle finger to both of them. Now,I refuse to believe that Putin is some grand chessmaster who is playing a smarter game. That title imho should go to Erdogan.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 Sep 2016 16:27

At least 40 killed in multiple blasts in 4 govt-held Syrian cities – reports

https://www.rt.com/news/358262-syria-tartus-two-blast/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 Sep 2016 16:36

I have been some what reluctant and not convinced from Day 1 that Russia participates in Syrian conflict in any way , At the core of this conflict is the Shia-Sunni animosity ...in the long run there is nothing much for Russia to gain from this conflict and is none of their business , what ever gains they make is just short term or say just tactical gains .....atleast the US fights for Oil in Gulf but Syria has nothing to offer.

Now it looks as I have been saying they are suck up in this conflict and are here to stay for long .......the only good thing is Russian presence has prevented the minority on the Assad side getting slaughtered by Sunni Jihadi that is the only silver line of the entire Russian intervention.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 Sep 2016 16:37

habal wrote:

Mr. Putin is making a point to Erdogan using his finger, who like an obedient schoolboy is all attention, while Obama way across the room is stretching his neck to see or hear what is being said.

More likely optical illusion and capturing the moment .....if Putin has any thing serious to talk about he wont do that in public

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Sep 2016 16:48

It is about power politics and such gestures can give away what happens in private behind closed doors. Looks at the body language, In power politics personal ego of leaders and their charisma plays a big role. Those who do not have charisma or personal ego have no say in this, viz Manmohan Singh, bereft of either.

It wouldn't be wrong to say that in that room, it is oozing machismo from likes of Putin and then there are also rans like Obama, Erdogan etc.

As far as Erdogan's chutzpah is concerned, he doesn't have the staying power or the backup of his army to stay in Syria if SAA and Russia decide to drive him out of it. They are struggling to handle a restive kurd/alevi population who do not have air power or artillery with them. Syria is too much to deal for them, he will go when Putin asks him to go. Or else his 90 kms border will be blasted out and he will lose all coup victimhood goodwill by running his troops (whatever is left) in a foreign sovereign country.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Sep 2016 17:07

Top USA National Security Officials Admit Turkey Coup

http://journal-neo.org/2016/08/31/top-u ... rkey-coup/

More than 200 jihadists killed at Artillery Academy in southern Aleppo: Tiger Forces - link to Al-Masdar News

Excerpt: "The Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) large-scale counter-assault in southern Aleppo finally paid off on Sunday, as they were able to establish full control over the strategic Artillery Academy."

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 17:54

the elite nusra shock troops would not be among them though....they did their job in echelon1 behind the VBIEDs and got out back to Idlib.

these would mostly be local jihadis from the rebel districts, put in as delaying tactics and cannon fodder.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 17:56

Austin wrote:I have been some what reluctant and not convinced from Day 1 that Russia participates in Syrian conflict in any way , At the core of this conflict is the Shia-Sunni animosity ...in the long run there is nothing much for Russia to gain from this conflict and is none of their business , what ever gains they make is just short term or say just tactical gains .....atleast the US fights for Oil in Gulf but Syria has nothing to offer.

Now it looks as I have been saying they are suck up in this conflict and are here to stay for long .......the only good thing is Russian presence has prevented the minority on the Assad side getting slaughtered by Sunni Jihadi that is the only silver line of the entire Russian intervention.

russia has a vital interest in the long term stability and survival of the shia crescent. else redoubled wahabbi problem in the CAR states, chechnya, azerbaijan, dagestan which are much closer.

plus it sends a message to other challengers and other fronts that they are willing to do "whatever it takes" to protect client states and a good testing ground for their new expeditionary forces....as they retool and rearm for the decades of bush wars around the world....

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 05 Sep 2016 18:39

Why is Syria spending so much resources capturing cities? Can it not just cut off supply routes and let the cities fall? i.e. avoid Stalingrad type trap and go for Mountbatten type, avoid the obstacles type of advance?

Also Singha, IRAM are becoming mainstream weapons. Goggle Volcano IRAM or Iran IRAM.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 19:22

Aleppo is the 2nd largest city and vital trade center of north syria...most of its people are also pro-govt...or atleast neutral. it has numerous minorities like christians & kurds also. it has a ring of factories and power plants around it. the Liwa al Quds militia that accompany the tiger force and hezbollah there are mostly palestinian refugees who settled in syria repaying a debt..they fight hard and well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liwa_al-Quds

surrounding cities and starving such cities is not possible as the civilian pop will starve to death as the rebels will not just let them leave. that is why daraya and mohamadiah held out peacefully for so long. UN and govt food supplies were allowed in and the rebels ate heartily too. even the Idlib rebels have let Fuah , Kufraya exist despite they can easily storm in all kill all the rafidi shia..they do not want to alienate people and their international sponsors get bad press. Nubl and Zahraa held out for years via a trickle of supplies from Afrin YPG at their back until the iranians kicked the front door in from north aleppo. they could have been crushed early on if the rebels wanted a fight.

neither is it right to just level the cities and kill all their own civilians...this is not ww2 era.

so its a strange war - food supplies, telecom, electricity, water, wounded people, relatives, traded goods flow all over across the govt and rebel lines. even the ISIS allows to this day a Beirut to Damascus to Raqqa bus service. there are "rules" and people follow these "rules" . the ISIS is not pure nihilism, they want a intact state and people to rule over, after they are done beheading those who oppose.

periodically there is some brutal episode and then things settle down again on the fronts which are frozen and dormant.

do read this.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/12/j ... 56788.html

it is not about conquest of enemy lands where anything goes, its about taking back their own country and winning hearts and minds of demoralized people weak after years of endless chaos and war. when Govt is restored where do you find the trained people to rebuild and run institutions and offices ? a portion of their educated middle class has already decamped as refugees for europe...the rich , some of the middle class and the poor are left to hold the ramparts.

both sides fight a clever and real time war on twitter also - projecting confidence, pumping up victories and building up charismatic people like The Tiger and Zahreddine for morale purposes. the rebels have their heroes too and their own twitter crew. TOW gunners who form the SF elite and some reputed to have scored 100+ hits in their careers ...

neither side is as powerful as they claim. manpower shortages on both sides are crippling to offensive tempo.

in contrast Iraq does not lack manpower due to its much larger population (shia mostly) between Baghdad to Basra in the thickly settled south and is hence now rolling up the ISIS. they are able to field and supply atleast 3 indep brigade sized regular army + PMU batallions...and their AF though small is really good with their F16, Mi28N and frogfoots.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Sep 2016 19:48

Russia in Syria.

Just because Russia will not intervene in Syria doesn't mean Duplicity SD will not intervene in Russian periphery and stop creating troubles for them. Russia is the biggest thorn in neocon & their predecessors flesh and this has a history from times of Tsar when Napolean was instigated against Russia, First SD instigated Ukraine, if Russians' kept their response to Ukraine then the next instigation will come in Belarus/Uzbek/Kazakh/Estonia/Poland and this will then engulf entire western periphery and create impression that entire area is destabilized.

Instead Duplicity SD opens Ukraine front. Russia makes preperations for Ukraine but lands up in Syria. Bang ! Check mate.
So in one step Russia has complicated affairs for SD, so now they are paralyzed, bamboolzed and can't create new fronts for Russia.
Especially since Syria is dragging in all their energies yet they are still loosing there and barely able to keep head above surface.
ISIS, the SD pet for Syria/Iraq is now irrelevant. And it cannot be revived.
Nusra is a Turkish pet, SD tried to co-opt it briefly but they will not move out of their bubble in Idlib and Khan Touman.

Any wrong moves in Syria, increases costs for western europe in terms of rapefugees and other malcontents washing up on their shores.
It removes the shine off the SD/Brookings/Neocon-led USA image as a successful conquerer of territories in Israel's vicinity and chief troublemaker and settler of disputes in ME. It creates discord between allies and mistrust of intentions. What more can you ask for starters.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 05 Sep 2016 19:52

Singha you have brought out an interesting aspect of the matter. Needless to say, it gives important insight over this Civil War. On another issue, the maps being put out on internet tend to show huge interior desert areas under ISIS which seems to suggest that Govt is cornered or restricted to coast. Do you think that these desert interiors should be shown as joint control or they are actually under ISIS?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 19:58

and the tide of people from africa into EU also continues unabated...

^Gyan there are huge areas in the desert with nobody sitting on it. towns, supply dumps, oil and gas facilities, strategic road junctions, mountain top observation posts are occupied thats all. the frontal edge of these polygons are joined and interior of polygons coloured per the owner ... from Palmyra to Deir azzor some 250km there are 3 occupied places Arak gas fields, Sukhnah village and oil fields and T3 or T2 pumping station in middle of nowhere.

but its easy to move around people in toyotas and trucks in the desert and todays empty hill is tomorrows defended post. observation and timely movement are crucial. there is no security for extended supply lines other than if you have predator type HALE drones. you need to carry everything to the fight and hope you dont run out.

thats why its very hard for SAA to advance 250k across the desert to Deir azzor with enough force and supplies to fight the strong ISIS forces there.
from water to ammo they will have to carry everything. ISIS raiding units can hit their thin supply lines at will in the night and no resources exist to control the flanks of such a long axis.

ISIS has to withdraw to defend Raqqa and Tabqah before anything will happen from Palmyra. or they have to suffer desertions.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Sep 2016 20:10

my feeling is isis is hollowed out even in Raqqa is now moving back from Jarablus and Hasakah back into Palmyra. ISIS is a sitting duck now since their mobility has been cut off, northern exit points blocked, Iraqi entry-exit points surrounded, so now all they can move around is flit from Jarablus to Palmyra in North-NorthEast axis, they will helplessly shuffle around until when Aleppo is taken and then Iraqis, SAA, Turks, Iranians surround them and make mincemeat out of SD munna.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 20:18

my prediction is a limited friendly attack by Hashd PMU from Al Qaim -> Deir azzor once they have cleaned up the remnants of ISIS and stabilized Anbar province.

the Al shaitat and Albu Kamal tribes and the Deir azzor garrison will do their part and it will be night of the long knives of any ISIS who did not get the market tip and escape at high speed in their pickups into the desert.

blood will flow in every village street as Bakr id for ISIS remnants will come early ...

I do not think the new syrian army circus NSA will head east again anytime soon

things will change in one night just as it did when the first units of northern alliance walked into kabul....leading to a panic stricken taliban rout and retreat back to jalalabad. sleeping taliban who were left behind were shot the like dogs the next morning.

habal · Post by **habal** » 05 Sep 2016 21:04

now the joke is on UK, even after escaping the EU, they still get to bear the cross

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/uk ... t-4-years/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 21:11

Germany has rejected 3 lakh asylum papers this year

Its unclear if they are able to track all these people who are free pending asylum decision and how they plan to deport so many without civil unrest

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Sep 2016 22:12

Seems ahrar al sham is new turkiye munna and has attacked nusra in hama. This after nusra back was broken by letting them go to aleppo get fixed in place then hammered. Rats came running from all over to eventually get killed.

Another allegation...

Abas Aslani – ‏@AbasAslani

#Iran leadr on #MinaStampede: Saudis locked up the injured w the dead in containers instead of providing medical treatmnt.They murdered them
12:46 am - 5 Sep 2016