Prem Kumar wrote:Amit: I dont want another sizzle vs fizzle debate, so will make only 1 post on this.
VKS clarified the reasons why we have a nuclear weapons program and the fact that 2 out of the 3 legs of the triad are ready (with the 3rd one coming along fine). Coming on the heels of Shyam Saran's speech, this seems to be a coordinated move with a nod from the GOI to assuage fears and probably send a message as well. There has been an artificial build-up of negative propaganda on the reasons for the Indian nuclear program (i.e. it was "prestige" related), how Pakistan is miles ahead and other such drivel. VKS interview and Shyam Saran's speech are to dispel any such notions.
Pallav didnt ask him about the size of the payloads & whether we have weaponized & proven TNs - and VKS didnt mention it either. The main sizzle-fizzle argument was whether the TN capacity was proven and if so, what designs/payloads were validated. This was not even remotely the point of the interview.
However, if this interview assuages doubts if you had any, that's fine.
Prem Kumar,
I appreciate your well thought out response. I’ll also stick to one response to your post as I don’t want another debate on an emotive subject as that’s invitation for trolling by usual suspects.
I agree the NDTV reporter did not ask about the size of the payload and VKS didn’t offer any information either.
However, the question I ask myself (and I did the same when we had that famous debate) is this: Does size matter? Or is it more important that whatever the size it does its job? Deterrence fails the day the rose petals start their flight.
When nuclear bombs became fashionable and various countries had big lumbering ICBMs to deliver them, the tonnage used by measured in megatons. However, nowadays the fashionable size is 250 kt. Now is 250 kt less reliable than one megaton and above? Do adversaries laugh at the punny size of the 250 kt when compared to their larger size megatons?
We’ll never know if the TN capacity was proven or not – at least not until some classified documents are declassified at some future point of time. Hence the sizzle vs fizzle debate was ultimately Santhanam’s word vs those of Chidambaram and Kakodkar. But more importantly the debate – as it was fashioned during that time – was also a DRDO (as neutral observers) vs BARC/AEC debate, with the later being painted as the villains who let the country down at Pokharan.
That’s why when the DRDO chief says our deterrent is robust and reliable I'm happy - I believe this is the first time since the sizzle vs fizzle debate that a DRDO chief has made such a categorical observation. I’m not too worried if the bombs are fission or TN or whether they are 20kt or 300 kt.
If indeed as you speculate Saran and VKS were sending out messages, one can either choose to believe these messages or not. I don’t think an option exists to believe a part of the message and disbelieve the other part – that is for lay persons like us, since we do not have access to data and can only go by what is publicly available. To wit, IMHO one cannot believe that India has a robust deterrence and also believe that it does not have a working TN that can be delivered using Agni 4 or 5.
As an aside, I found this particular para in the VKS interview interesting:
The notion that many analysts have are purely based upon their perception of things and comparison with other countries. I think every country has deterrence capability based upon its capacity, based upon evolving threats and also (takes into consideration) the ecosystem and the environment in which this deterrence has to work. So one need not compare whether country A has a better one (deterrence) or country B has a better one. It is what India needs. Do we have that? I can assure that India has the required deterrence capability in all forms. The triad is getting completed and I have no doubts that we will match with the best in the world.
At the end of the day, your point about a negative build up on perception about India’s nuclear deterrent is well founded. However, unfortunately I think Indians contribute as much to it as NPA Ayatollahs and other assorted creatures.
To sum up my thoughts let me repeat what I wrote earlier: Is size important or is effectiveness? The sizzle vs fizzle debate was ultimately one man’s word against the other(s). What was added IMHO was an “artificial” disagreement between two government institutions responsible for our deterrent: DRDO and BARC/AEC. Hence my point about VKS’ comments clearing up this “artificial” disagreement.
PS: I also realize that my conclusions are mine alone and others can have different opinions. Let’s just keep it at that.