AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Oct 2013 04:04

Seems like tide is changing.

Meanwhile Business Standard

Congress trapped in its own game plan

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Oct 2013 04:07

Whether it is VK Singh or Telangana, first create the problem for political ends and force people to take extreme steps and then blame them for harming national interests.

Home Minister fears escalation of Naxal problem

The growing protest against the creation of Telangana has senior officials of the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) a worried lot.

They fear that a long spell of “zero-governance” in the State could see escalation of the Naxal problem, while law and order could deteriorate, particularly in Hyderabad. Union Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde on Monday briefed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the situation in the State.

As the protest spread to more areas in Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh, the officials are apprehensive that Maoists would now try and reassert their presence in areas where the police and paramilitary forces have managed to regain control in the last few years. Moreover, as paramilitary forces engaged in anti-Naxal operations were being diverted to contain protests, Maoists would sense a chance to regroup.

“It is a well-known fact that most of the top Maoist leaders belong to the economically backward Telangana region, which used to be the hotbed of Naxal activities. Persistent operations by Greyhound commandos of the Andhra Pradesh police, along with the paramilitary forces, forced Maoists to shift base to the neighbouring States. But now with attention diverting towards protests and people getting restless, Naxals might try and rebuild the cadre base in the State,” a senior MHA official said.

Of the 10 districts of the proposed Telangana State, which shares borders with some of the Naxal strongholds like Gadchiroli in Maharashtra and Bastar in Chhattisgarh, 8 have been declared worst hit by the left wing extremism. They include onetime Maoist hotbeds of Karimnagar, Warangal and Adilabad. Significantly, even the other districts that will fall in divided Andhra Pradesh are also facing Naxal problem, which include Vizianagaram and Visakhapatnam that have turned out to be the epicentres of the current anti-Telangana protests.

“Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy has also come out openly against Telangana ... There is complete absence of governance in the State where even the bureaucracy and police look divided. Under such circumstances law and order situation in the State could be compromised,” the official added.

Another area of concern is growing possibility of clashes between pro and anti-Telangana supporters, particularly in Hyderabad. Already there have been reports of anti-Telangana protesters targeting some Congress leaders in the Seemandhra region. “If pro-Telangana supporters decide to open a new front, it will be difficult to contain the situation. There could be a face-off like situation between pro and anti-Telangana supporters … We might see targeted attacks on people. We do not want this to happen … We are taking all precautions,” the official said.

Amid widespread speculation that the Centre was contemplating imposition of President’s rule in Andhra Pradesh to prevent the situation from going out of hand, Mr. Shinde met the Prime Minister and discussed the steps being taken to maintain peace.

Accompanied by Union Home Secretary Anil Goswami, Mr. Shinde reportedly told Dr. Singh that sufficient forces had been deployed in the Seemandhra region to maintain law and order, while more Central forces have been kept on standby. They also discussed the possibility of securing power plants — whose functioning has been paralysed by protesters — by the Central forces and running them with the help of engineers from outside so that electricity supply would not be disrupted, sources said.

Mr. Shinde is hopeful of reaching an amicable solution to the Telangana issue as his emissaries were in touch with all stakeholders. He has also assured leaders of Seemandhra, including Union Ministers who have offered resignations to the Prime Minister, that the interests of the people of the region would be safeguarded. There have been talks of special economic package and other sops related to education, employment and healthcare facilities being offered for divided Andhra Pradesh to pacify leaders and protesters, the sources added.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 08 Oct 2013 04:16

ShyamSP wrote:
Narayana Rao wrote:Kakathiyas fell due to caste fight? This is the new one. How did it happen.
Probably he is referring to Musunuri Nayakas' (Kammas) Kakatiya who fell due to Recherla Nayakas (Velamas) supporting and taking support from Bahmanis. Vema Reddy of Addanki who was with Musunuris retained rest of Kakatiya other than Warangal and Bhuvanagiri (Bhongiri nearer to Hyderabad) and ruled Reddy Kingdom from Kondaveedu and later from Rajamahedravaram, which eventually got absorbed into Vijayanagara.

Back then the Nayakas united under a Hindu banner and made a common enemy of the Muslim invaders. And Musunuri Nayakas did not budge from their Hindu cause. But today CBN ditched Hindus at the first sight of defeat. He was greedy and did not allow BJP to grow and it is coming back to bite him. Today BJP is a depleted party and lost all its cadre because of him. Watch Revanth Reddy's interview posted on this thread. He was a ABVP activist, got disillusioned after Vajpayee signed off the party to TDP and left ABVP. There must be countless others like him. And when he needs the BJP cadre now, there may not be enough left to help him. And how can he appeal for Reddys' (and other Hindus') support against EJ Jagan when he keeps accusing BJP of being communal and bends over backwards to appease the minorities. Its time he makes up his mind and is firmly into the BJP camp. It will have the benefit of getting the Brahmin vote too.

People compare Modi and CBN. Modi says that he does what he does because it is the right thing to do. He does not weigh if his actions will win him the next election or not. But every thing CBN did was with an eye on winning the next election. He was for the most part a back room operator. After taking over the CM from NTR, he was in the fore front for the first time. And he had big shoes to fill in the popularity and charisma department as compared to his father in law. So he came up with inane schemes like Janma Bhoomi to boost his image. He had Bill Clinton visit Hyderabad. He had the western press eating out of his hand. i wonder what the quid pro quo was. I just hope it was nothing sinister.

Instead of building on his strengths which is being a good administrator, he tried to become something he is not. Even after 9 years of his rule, AP was a distant 5th in software output. No major industry (other than software) came to AP during his regime. If he had delivered AP to NDA in 2004 we wouldn't be having UPA1 and UPA2.

I hope TDP+BJP can win the next elections and CBN does a better job this time around. But 10 years of EJism probably turned the demographics decisively against them.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Oct 2013 04:37

We have 38 pages in this thread. And this page is like the first one. Except CBN is now favoring BJP under Modi.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 08 Oct 2013 05:09

Congress is actually thinking of putting it on real fast track and getting over the AP split. All this united AP stalwarts like Jagan will have to do something else.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Oct 2013 05:21

Wise words from Jayaprakash Narayana and one can see his pain from his words.He slaps Manu Singhvi left and right. But the TRS guy dismisses JP as "acting like a Seemandhrite". Reminds me of the pro and anti division arguments between the Congress and ML in mid 40s or between Hindus and Muslims in 1905 during the division of Bengal.Any sane argument opposing division or revealing the cunning politics of the british behind them was automatically dismissed by the ML/Muslims as a "Hindu argument" and hence biased and can be dismissed.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 08 Oct 2013 05:37

hanumadu wrote: Back then the Nayakas united under a Hindu banner and made a common enemy of the Muslim invaders. And Musunuri Nayakas did not budge from their Hindu cause. But today CBN ditched Hindus at the first sight of defeat. He was greedy and did not allow BJP to grow and it is coming back to bite him. Today BJP is a depleted party and lost all its cadre because of him. Watch Revanth Reddy's interview posted on this thread. He was a ABVP activist, got disillusioned after Vajpayee signed off the party to TDP and left ABVP. There must be countless others like him. And when he needs the BJP cadre now, there may not be enough left to help him. And how can he appeal for Reddys' (and other Hindus') support against EJ Jagan when he keeps accusing BJP of being communal and bends over backwards to appease the minorities. Its time he makes up his mind and is firmly into the BJP camp. It will have the benefit of getting the Brahmin vote too.

TDP is not Hindus' party unlike BJP claim for CBN to ditch them. It is moot point

Why should TDP allow BJP to grow? The ran separately in 1998 formed an non-Congress alliance so BJP can rule at Center. BJP losing its cadre is TDP's fault? So its losing cadre Karnataka is also TDP's fault instead BJP's own mistakes.

Whether you understand or not BJP cadre was and is there despite TDP in Telangana. BJP had independent T-policy which was against TDP interests also. Yet, as we can see from recent Panchayat elections it was able to win only handful villages including in Telangana out of about 22,000

TDP has its own history and ideology and vote base whether it is confined to AP or not. It has to conform to its principles and party ideology. It is not in the service of BJP. Its commonality to BJP is both are anti-congress. When that commonality came into picture TDP always supported BJP. When he had to criticize he did straight at Modi and when praised he did straight at his face also. When it comes to form non-Congress alliance he'll do so with Modi whether other parties agree or not. He is not psec like many other leaders including the ones in BJP.

hanumadu wrote: People compare Modi and CBN. Modi says that he does what he does because it is the right thing to do. He does not weigh if his actions will win him the next election or not. But every thing CBN did was with an eye on winning the next election. He was for the most part a back room operator. After taking over the CM from NTR, he was in the fore front for the first time. And he had big shoes to fill in the popularity and charisma department as compared to his father in law. So he came up with inane schemes like Janma Bhoomi to boost his image. He had Bill Clinton visit Hyderabad. He had the western press eating out of his hand. i wonder what the quid pro quo was. I just hope it was nothing sinister.

Instead of building on his strengths which is being a good administrator, he tried to become something he is not. Even after 9 years of his rule, AP was a distant 5th in software output. No major industry (other than software) came to AP during his regime. If he had delivered AP to NDA in 2004 we wouldn't be having UPA1 and UPA2.

In 2004 elections were contested on NDA banner only. So it is lose due to both BJP and TDP. Yes it was TDP to be blamed for the loss. BJP is non-issue then or now.

Whether it is right or wrong in the hindsight, he did bring up Software/IT and Pharma industries big time in Hyderabad which are still huge revenue-generating in AP. He laid out Biotech and hardware policies/parks at tail end but unfortunately after he lost, YSR didn't develop any thing whether in Hyderabad or any where.

Even if you are in the camp of people who say he back-stabbed to take over TDP. We have 20 year hindsight and I can assert that even hardcore NTR fans don't find fault with him as he kept the TDP and NTR glory at high inside the TDP.

hanumadu wrote: I hope TDP+BJP can win the next elections and CBN does a better job this time around. But 10 years of EJism probably turned the demographics decisively against them.

Probably his share of EJ votebank (30% of EJs) is also intact so he is not at disadvantage with EJ votebank.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 08 Oct 2013 05:46

ShyamSP wrote: Probably his share of EJ votebank (30%) is also intact so he is not at disadvantage with EJ votebank.

Really, people! Where is this 30% EJ votebank coming from? Even the most ardent Christians are only claiming about 20% of the population. To hear people here talk, one would think contesting from Andhra Pradesh is like contesting from Shillong or 1930 Lahore, where a small Hindu votebank is all that remains for the BJP!

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 08 Oct 2013 05:48

^^^
He probably meant 30% of the total EJ votebank.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 08 Oct 2013 05:48

Rony wrote:Yes.Curfew and shoot at sight orders. The reason why they are targetting Botsa ? Watch this

PCC chief Botsa Satyanarayana double standards on AP bifurcation

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nK2DeQjaJUY

Just before he was made AP PCC president, CBI cleared all scams on his name. So he is prisoner of Congress mafia to go against its interests. He is one big shady character and runs liquor mafia.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 08 Oct 2013 05:52

nageshks wrote:
ShyamSP wrote: Probably his share of EJ votebank (30%) is also intact so he is not at disadvantage with EJ votebank.
Really, people! Where is this 30% EJ votebank coming from? Even the most ardent Christians are only claiming about 20% of the population. To hear people here talk, one would think contesting from Andhra Pradesh is like contesting from Shillong or 1930 Lahore, where a small Hindu votebank is all that remains for the BJP!

30% of EJ votebank. I know instances of 90% EJs voted for TDP when the running candidate was not EJ. Not everything is black and white. TDP can play Congress game too there but not to that extent though.

After initial EJ fascination is over, maybe after 10 years or so, even converts have to think and live locally.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 08 Oct 2013 05:54

Any sustainable violence for a longer period needs active backing. Money, arms and foot soldiers. So who is fueling all the anger in SA? Who is aiding and abetting?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 08 Oct 2013 05:57

ShyamSP wrote: Just before he was made AP PCC president, CBI cleared all scams on his name. So he is prisoner of Congress mafia to go against its interests. He is one big shady character and runs liquor mafia.

He is destined to be CM of Andhra. That is where the whole violence against him is coming. Now it backfired. I am very curious to see how this forced division will take place as a process. Never ever we have seen such a state formation.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 08 Oct 2013 06:23

South stares at blackout as Telangana protests shut power plants

Vast swathes of southern India across Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka stared at dark days and huge industrial losses as the southern power grid creaked on Monday with workers at generating units shutting down thermal plants.

As blackouts worsened, protesters in the Seemandhra region, angry with the AP bifurcation plan, blocked highways and crippled movement of goods in the eastern-southern corridor across Odisha, West Bengal, TN and Karnataka. In Odisha, the blockade has already resulted in skyrocketing of prices of essential commodities.

Protesters have sporadically blocked national highways passing through Seemandhra for the last two months. But now, with the movement to keep Andhra united reaching a crescendo, trucks were forced to halt at several places for hours, disrupting freight movement from Tamil Nadu to West Bengal. All Seemandhra districts are connected with one or the other national highway right from Srikakulam to Nellore in the coastal part and all the four districts of Rayalaseema.

As protests showed no sign of abating, Vizianagaram, where shoot-at-sight orders were issued, remained under curfew for the third day after widespread violence. Police said at least 34 people have been arrested from the area.

Apprehending the crisis could lead to the collapse of the southern grid, power officials from Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Pondicherry sought the intervention of the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) which in turn directed AP officials to ensure that the crisis didn't spin out of control. The collapse of the southern grid will lead to a total blackout in the southern states.

The crisis aggravated after the striking electricity employees, who have already ensured a shut down at various power generating stations across the Seemandhra region, resorted to halting the distribution network from Sunday. This resulted in a blockage in the supply of power because of which there was a danger of the power grid frequency dropping below the permitted levels of 49.5 hertz and leading to the tripping of the entire southern grid.

May be the CONGi game in AP might succeed and they may win 20+ seats using their Team B. But the whole country realizes how chaotic this CON alliance has become and it costs 20+ seats.

If the agitation does not come down, will the EC postpone elections in 25 seats in Andhra and hold the elections?

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 08 Oct 2013 06:40

RamaY wrote: 1. For the first time T-vadis will be forced to engage SA people in their state demand.

RamaY garu, could you please consider changing T-vadis to T people or SA people to United AP-vadis?

(color coding to convey that Naxals are usually called "Mao vadis")

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 08 Oct 2013 06:47

ShyamSP wrote: TDP is not Hindus' party unlike BJP claim for CBN to ditch them. It is moot point

Why should TDP allow BJP to grow? The ran separately in 1998 formed an non-Congress alliance so BJP can rule at Center. BJP losing its cadre is TDP's fault? So its losing cadre Karnataka is also TDP's fault instead BJP's own mistakes.

Whether you understand or not BJP cadre was and is there despite TDP in Telangana. BJP had independent T-policy which was against TDP interests also. Yet, as we can see from recent Panchayat elections it was able to win only handful villages including in Telangana out of about 22,000

TDP has its own history and ideology and vote base whether it is confined to AP or not. It has to conform to its principles and party ideology. It is not in the service of BJP. Its commonality to BJP is both are anti-congress. When that commonality came into picture TDP always supported BJP. When he had to criticize he did straight at Modi and when praised he did straight at his face also. When it comes to form non-Congress alliance he'll do so with Modi whether other parties agree or not. He is not psec like many other leaders including the ones in BJP.

It was in TDPs interest to allow BJP to grow. BJP would have always been a junior partner to TDP yet make the difference in its fight against Congress. TDP is not an Hindu party but it can chose to be a Hindu party if it benefits or be an anti Hindu party if it does not. Are you forgetting CBN campaining for muslim reservations in AP or when he said that he did only one mistake and that is supporting BJP? He is just as pseudosecular as any body. He critized Modi when the thought that it would get him Muslim votes. But since all the ass kissing did not get him any votes, he is back to BJP only this time in a much weaker position. What is TDP's ideology? And does BJP care for what TDPs ideology is if CBN keeps changing his colours? BJP would much prefer grow by itself or with trusted and committed partners. If there is an alliance between BJP and TDP this time, BJP will make sure the seat sharing will be much more equitable. TDP is the bigger loser of the breakup with NDA.

ShyamSP wrote: In 2004 elections were contested on NDA banner only. So it is lose due to both BJP and TDP. Yes it was TDP to be blamed for the loss. BJP is non-issue then or now.

Whether it is right or wrong in the hindsight, he did bring up Software/IT and Pharma industries big time in Hyderabad which are still huge revenue-generating in AP. He laid out Biotech and hardware policies/parks at tail end but unfortunately after he lost, YSR didn't develop any thing whether in Hyderabad or any where.

Even if you are in the camp of people who say he back-stabbed to take over TDP. We have 20 year hindsight and I can assert that even hardcore NTR fans don't find fault with him as he kept the TDP and NTR glory at high inside the TDP.

For some one who claimed to be CEO of AP, being 5th in software in India is not an achievement. What is his USP against other CMs within AP and outside AP? It was better him become the CM rather than Lakshmi Parvathi.

ShyamSP wrote: Probably his share of EJ votebank (30% of EJs) is also intact so he is not at disadvantage with EJ votebank.

Getting 30% of a growing pie and giving up 70% to the opposition is a losing cause anyway you look at it.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 08 Oct 2013 06:49

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 08 Oct 2013 06:57

ShyamSP wrote:
30% of EJ votebank. I know instances of 90% EJs voted for TDP when the running candidate was not EJ. Not everything is black and white. TDP can play Congress game too there but not to that extent though.

After initial EJ fascination is over, maybe after 10 years or so, even converts have to think and live locally.

Well then CBN can wait for 10 more years to come back to power.
TDP tried playing the Congress game with the Muslim vote bank. Looks like it did not prove very successful. After 10 years, it won't be the hindus playing the minority vote bank politics, it will be the minorities who will be playing the hindu vote bank politics.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 08 Oct 2013 07:19

Muppalla wrote:Congress is actually thinking of putting it on real fast track and getting over the AP split. All this united AP stalwarts like Jagan will have to do something else.

The moment t-state forms, YSJ's USP goes away. New AP state would prefer an able administrator.

Matrimc garu - Sure, T-people it is. I don't think SA-vadis can win for now.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 08 Oct 2013 07:24

hanumadu wrote: It was in TDPs interest to allow BJP to grow. BJP would have always been a junior partner to TDP yet make the difference in its fight against Congress. TDP is not an Hindu party but it can chose to be a Hindu party if it benefits or be an anti Hindu party if it does not. Are you forgetting CBN campaining for muslim reservations in AP or when he said that he did only one mistake and that is supporting BJP? He is just as pseudosecular as any body. He critized Modi when the thought that it would get him Muslim votes. But since all the ass kissing did not get him any votes, he is back to BJP only this time in a much weaker position. What is TDP's ideology? And does BJP care for what TDPs ideology is if CBN keeps changing his colours? BJP would much prefer grow by itself or with trusted and committed partners. If there is an alliance between BJP and TDP this time, BJP will make sure the seat sharing will be much more equitable. TDP is the bigger loser of the breakup with NDA.

Don't rub BJP failings on TDP. It is not correct in what ever you want to bring out
BJP doesn't play junior partner role. BJP failed in Center to throw away Congress. BJP failed in Karnataka and brought Congress back.
BJP could not win handful villages. What is equitable in seat-sharing. Giving even 1 out of 42 MPs and 5 out of 290+ MLA seats is also very generous.

You say CBN changing colors. What are those. TDP changed its policy from Samaikyandhra to favorable to T in 2008. It is still continuing with the same policy. With BJP they cut off relationships after 2004 defeat. He doesn't mind forming alliance again for anti-congress sake in principle. I don't see there is much changing colors also.

With respect to Muslims I don't think he is disillusioned like other psec parties. TDP has its own committed Muslim votebank and it knows it can't grow beyond that. His secular talk is more to do with EJ votebank.

hanumadu wrote:For some one who claimed to be CEO of AP, being 5th in software in India is not an achievement. What is his USP against other CMs within AP and outside AP? It was better him become the CM rather than Lakshmi Parvathi.

Till probably 1994 or so. Top destinations for Technical graduates in Hyderabad was US, Bangalore, Pune/Mumbai, Chennai/Delhi, Hyderabad in that order. Those that remained in Hyderabad were may be 10% due to family obligations or being plain losers. Revenues from non-government and non-defence companies were miniscule. From what ever it was in 1994 to what it was till 2004 was one great achievement of TDP, in specific CBN.

Also in 1994 AP government didn't have any money. He brought it to healthy level in 2004 at the expense of him losing. When YSR took over AP was healthy and ready to be looted for YSR and to provide all sorts of subsidies/entitlements.

hanumadu wrote:Getting 30% of a growing pie and giving up 70% to the opposition is a losing cause anyway you look at it.

EJs were there before TDP was there. I don't think TDP contributed any thing there. In fact, they broke EJ money for its own advantage. It was only after YSR took over, EJ money was consolidated under YSR for more activities.

EJ system is above his pay grade. Unless India or BJP does some thing at Center, there is no use blaming TDP. EJ issues are there in other states also not just AP.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Oct 2013 07:31

Telangana and lessons for creating new states : Hasty division of Andhra Pradesh has created problems and not solutions

The creation of Telangana state by bifurcating Andhra Pradesh is now a foregone conclusion. The Union cabinet recently created a group of ministers (GoM) expressly tasked with figuring out the modalities of the division. Within days of that decision, the state has been engulfed with protests, violence and shutdowns. Citizens protesting against the division of the state have taken to the streets and the state’s reluctant political class is now being forced to quit elected offices to ensure its survival.

This newspaper has held that there is a cautious case for creating new, small, states if only to ensure a modicum of governability. Mega states such as Uttar Pradesh are virtually ungovernable as recent events show. But the Andhra Pradesh case demonstrates something else: unless the process of division is planned carefully, the results may end up creating more problems.

As matters stand, the state faces three contentious issues. These are unlikely to be resolved by the GoM, however hard it may try to do so.

First and foremost is the issue of water rights. Major rivers pass through what will be the new state. How these waters will be shared is a tricky question. In India, it is almost a given that inter-state water sharing issues lead to intractable disputes. Punjab and Haryana, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, and other states are well known examples. These disputes defy judicial solutions and politics over them drags on for decades if not longer. This issue has not been touched so far. This issue will come to haunt planners in the years ahead.

Another major dispute that is brewing is over the access to educational institutions. In Andhra Pradesh, most of the important institutions are located in the Hyderabad region. Now it was never envisaged that Hyderabad would one day be the capital of another state. But take away Hyderabad and you will set back Seemandhra by decades on this front. In fact, leaders of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), the party that spearheaded the campaign for a separate state, are already showing reluctance to share these resources with other regions. Making Hyderabad a quasi-UT with the governor of Telangana having executive control over it for 10 years is not a solution.

Then comes the issue of dividing administrative resources. Primarily, this boils down to a new capital for the residual state after Telangana is separated. Hyderabad is not only a capital of Andhra Pradesh, it is a major city of the country in which virtually unquantifiable resources have been thrown in to modernize it. The city boasts of a world-class airport, an information technology hub and a cluster of educational and training institutions. Together, this is a dream collection of what any capital requires. The refrain now is that Vijayawada will become the capital of Seemandhra. But has any thought been spared to the kind of resources that will be required to build a new capital? The process will be financially draining not only for Seemandhra—which may not have adequate resources for the task—but perhaps for the Union government. Who else will foot the bill for fashioning a new capital city?

There are valuable lessons here for creating new states. The first thing that any planner needs to heed from the Andhra Pradesh imbroglio is that of the time horizon required to successfully carry out such transitions. The planning for such changes must be carried out before the process of the split is rolled out, not after its announcement. Apart from ironing out difficulties, it has to be realized that once an announcement is made every single administrative decision is liable to be disputed.
Second, fiscally the process will be much smoother if resources are devolved for such tasks years before the split is finalized. The Union government could have created a separate fund for meeting the resource gaps that new states and the residual states face. Imagine if the decision to create Telangana had been taken years earlier, with a clearly announced road map and a set date for division. That would have allowed the orderly development of a new capital city and careful planning of educational institutions, etc.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Oct 2013 07:40

Centre gropes in the dark as Andhra Pradesh burns

As anti-Telangana protests crippled Seemandhra region with 30,000 electricity department employees going on strike against the Centre’s decision to bifurcate the state, prime minister Manmohan Singh met union home minister Sushilkumar Shinde and finance minister P Chidambaram to find ways to salvage the fast deteriorating situation.

The power crisis virtually paralyzed the region with the port in Vishakhapatnam, the Air Traffic Control and the steel plant shutting down. Sources said the functioning of the naval dock has also been affected. The power crisis has hit at least 13 districts by bringing several important consumer services to a halt. The strike has forced cancellation of several trains.

Meanwhile, curfew remained in place in restive Vizianagaram town following large-scale violence.

The police have so far arrested 34 persons in connection with the violence.

As inputs pointed out that the situation is going to worsen by the day and protests would spread to other places, sources said there is deep introspection within the government if it has bitten more than what it could chew by taking a hasty decision on creation of Telangana. But it also knows that going back is not an easy option now, sources said.

In the nearly hour-long meeting, unions ministers from Seemandhra, D Purandeswari, Surya Prakash Reddy, Chiranjeevi and Pallam Raju asked the PM to accept their resignations as continuing as ministers has become untenable for them in the current scenario.

Meanwhile, Shinde’s deputy RP Singh said there is no scope for “reconsidering” the proposed creation of Telangana.

Within the home ministry, the mandarins also jostled their heads on how to deal with the explosive situation in Andhra Pradesh whose aftershocks can reach Assam, West Bengal and even Manipur movements for separate statehoods are sharpening their claws to demand their pound of flesh.

Situation in Bodoland Territorial Area District in Assam, in particular, can become volatile as it is already simmering within because of recent incidents of communal and ethnic clashes.

Sources said the government was briefed in detail not only about the immediate fallout but also about the security scenario with regard to Maoist situation. A secret note prepared by the MHA for the cabinet had warned the government that the new state of Telangana would become a safe haven for Maoists.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 08 Oct 2013 07:43

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 08 Oct 2013 07:50

Rony wrote:Centre gropes in the dark as Andhra Pradesh burns

It is a matter of life and death for dynasty. Nothing will prevail other than splitting AP because they have to get the state and the only gamble is to split it. If they get an anti-congress 30 seats in AP, India can celebrate end of dynasty. This entire state is a collateral for 2014. No agitation will stop the split.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 08 Oct 2013 07:51

ShyamSP wrote: Don't rub BJP failings on TDP. It is not correct in what ever you want to bring out
BJP doesn't play junior partner role. BJP failed in Center to throw away Congress. BJP failed in Karnataka and brought Congress back.
BJP could not win handful villages. What is equitable in seat-sharing. Giving even 1 out of 42 MPs and 5 out of 290+ MLA seats is also very generous.

If Naidu really thought that giving 1 MP seat and 5 MLA seats is generous, he would not be cosying up to Modi. He would be treating the BJP as he did in 2005, after the defeat. In any case, I am one of those who is opposed to the Alliance, so you are preaching to the choir. I think BJP should try to split TDP and parts of Congress and go on its own. Time is on the BJP side. They can afford to lose one election in Andhra, and CBN is not an ideological partner anyway. If CBN loses another election, chances are there won't be a party for him to contest with in 2019. Very few regional parties have survived being out of power for 15 years. National parties have a lot more longevity.

With BJP they cut off relationships after 2004 defeat.

Sorry, who cut off the relationship in 2004, after the defeat?

He doesn't mind forming alliance again for anti-congress sake in principle. I don't see there is much changing colors also.

His only hope is coming to power in 2014. If he fails, he is toast. He sees a rising BJP and is trying to be on the winning side. Please don't give him any bonus points for any principles. He is just looking out for himself.

EJs were there before TDP was there. I don't think TDP contributed any thing there. In fact, they broke EJ money for its own advantage. It was only after YSR took over, EJ money was consolidated under YSR for more activities.

Even during his time, EJs tended to vote more for Congress. But he did nothing to stop them.

EJ system is above his pay grade. Unless India or BJP does some thing at Center, there is no use blaming TDP. EJ issues are there in other states also not just AP.

True. But he shares the blame (along with a lot of others) in failing to do anything. While some parts of the problem are above his pay grade, he did nothing about even those parts of the problem that were within his pay grade. So, please do not absolve him of the responsibility.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 08 Oct 2013 07:55

per my info, TDP has lost ground in every vote-bank that it could once rely on. compared to their heights in late-90's, their base has been poached by different sections/forces of AP politics.

anybody who expects TDP to be able to dictate terms to BJP this time around is missing the bare fact that TDP is in no position to do so.
they have neither the strength nor the confidence that they can actually form a majority govt, even if they make an alliance with BJP pre-poll

and BJP is in a similar boat. they are in no position to dictate terms to anybody in AP. But, ultimately, BJP is a national party and this is why in the end BJP (in the current scenario) will retain the upper hand w.r.t TDP.

that is the realistic scenario. and you can't wish it away.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 08 Oct 2013 08:28

nageshks wrote:
ShyamSP wrote: Don't rub BJP failings on TDP. It is not correct in what ever you want to bring out
BJP doesn't play junior partner role. BJP failed in Center to throw away Congress. BJP failed in Karnataka and brought Congress back.
BJP could not win handful villages. What is equitable in seat-sharing. Giving even 1 out of 42 MPs and 5 out of 290+ MLA seats is also very generous.
If Naidu really thought that giving 1 MP seat and 5 MLA seats is generous, he would not be cosying up to Modi. He would be treating the BJP as he did in 2005, after the defeat. In any case, I am one of those who is opposed to the Alliance, so you are preaching to the choir. I think BJP should try to split TDP and parts of Congress and go on its own. Time is on the BJP side. They can afford to lose one election in Andhra, and CBN is not an ideological partner anyway. If CBN loses another election, chances are there won't be a party for him to contest with in 2019. Very few regional parties have survived being out of power for 15 years. National parties have a lot more longevity.

That is my comment based on BJP performance in Telangana even after long T-policy. If TDP thinks they can win 20+, it is better than BJP contesting by itself and getting 0 without TDP. Even Narayana Rao, who claims in this forum to be BJP member, says BJP has slim chances.

If TDP loses, it may have difficulty in Telangana to survive as 6 parties are there to share votebanks. But in rest of AP, it will still be player as caste and votebank structure is not going to change. Votebanks are split between TDP and INC/YSRC in rest of AP and all other political forces (PRP for example) are exhausted.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 08 Oct 2013 09:04

actually, if the SA-BJP can successfully position itself as having taken part in the protests and turning against Kishen Reddy, then BJP has the possibility of getting 3-5% vote share even in SA. in that case, if there was a pre-poll alliance with TDP, TDP would get that boost at the margin which can lead to victory.

and BJP knows this. they might be zero on their own. but if they are going to end up as zero with TDP also, then what's the point of making a pre-poll alliance?

the only reason for them to do a pre-poll alliance is if TDP is willing to give them significant share in Telangana, which means in the future, BJP will essentially absorb T-TDP into itself. if such an offer or possibility in on table, that is when BJP will make a pre-poll alliance with TDP.

in return, TDP gets free run in SA, along with those 3-5% votes which will play a crucial role in giving TDP victory in constituencies where margin of victory is low.

I reiterate my earlier point. don't fall for emotional responses. look at the situation coldly and you will see that in the short-term, Telangana and Seemandhra are both prey to INC++ ('++' are all the outfits who will ultimately align with INC). BJP and TDP have a long walk ahead and they will emerge completely transformed. the old ideas and "alliances" will not work. TDP is in NO position to dictate terms. BJP is groping in wilderness hoping that it will find a grand banyan tree to sit down, and ponder past and future in T and SA.

there is no easy solution to this problem. we are seeing the culmination of 1000 years of history.

things are headed in the direction that I am expecting them to. one prospect that is worrying is the possibility of Ashraf+Old-feudal re-alliance in T, coming together (covertly, while keeping up public appearance of distrust) with mercantile elements in Kosta.

to me, the above is a very serious threat not just to the region but India as well. in that sense, it might be good for TDP and BJP to make-up and preempt such a development in Kosta. but how long can TDP hold the fort while West-Coast+interior fall to Ashraf-reemergence? that is an open-ended question with no good answer.

and as such, Kosta has its own problems. my genuine calculation is that the demographics have tipped against TDP in Kosta.
there will be immense pressure on TDP to not align with BJP.

one thing that has so far remained under-the-radar is the organizational capabilities of the EJ's. can they launch mass vote-pulling movements among the flock? as long as this phenomenon remains hidden, the Hindus will not get to see just what kind of cancer has been growing under their very noses. this needs to come out.

can a premature TDP-BJP alliance convince them to show their org muscle? if yes, then I'm all for it! if the EJ's can be exposed to the general public, and TDP-BJP alliance in 2014 can do that, then that is the best way to go. forget poll statistics. I don't expect the TDP or BJP to win in either T or SA in 2014. so, that's not much of a concern for me.

I have no ears inside the TDP. I am blind to their thought process right now. but I'm wondering if some of them are thinking what I'm thinking: that perhaps the one last hope that TDP has of resurrecting itself is an un-masking of EJ's while their (EJ) org capabilities can still be countered.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 08 Oct 2013 09:18

ShyamSP wrote:Don't rub BJP failings on TDP. It is not correct in what ever you want to bring out
BJP doesn't play junior partner role. BJP failed in Center to throw away Congress. BJP failed in Karnataka and brought Congress back.
BJP could not win handful villages. What is equitable in seat-sharing. Giving even 1 out of 42 MPs and 5 out of 290+ MLA seats is also very generous.

I am not trying to bring out anything. I am expressing my POV thats all.

What has Karnataka got to do anything with what BJP or TDP should do now in AP. Even the most ardent of BJP fans admit Karnataka was a screw up.

ShyamSP wrote:
You say CBN changing colors. What are those. TDP changed its policy from Samaikyandhra to favorable to T in 2008. It is still continuing with the same policy. With BJP they cut off relationships after 2004 defeat. He doesn't mind forming alliance again for anti-congress sake in principle. I don't see there is much changing colors also.

With respect to Muslims I don't think he is disillusioned like other psec parties. TDP has its own committed Muslim votebank and it knows it can't grow beyond that. His secular talk is more to do with EJ votebank.

"TDP has committed only one mistake in politics - that is extending support to the NDA Government led by BJP," he said, adding such a thing will not happen again.
I will give him the benefit of doubt and believe he meant what he said. But I will call him out if he aligns with BJP again. And why was it a mistake? Is this not pseudosecularism?

He should have stuck with united Andhra. Atleast he wouldn't have ceded political space to Jagan in SA. Now he is na ghar ka na ghat ka.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 08 Oct 2013 09:26

Cbn has to ride NM good name and may be bjp create problems and uncertainties in Ap game of congress. With no gain there is no need help mafia easy run in Ap.

vina · Post by **vina** » 08 Oct 2013 09:42

Gosh. This Kiran Kumar Reddy seems to be literally fiddling like a Nero or deliberately stoking the fires in the rest of Andhra. Two months without public transport, and now power shut downs, closing down trains, airports, hopitals and water.

WTH ? This surely has all the hallmarks of a sponsored strike. Why in dickens has the ESMA not been employed and the transport and electricity and other guys not ordered back to work and he danda not applied to the union and "joint" action committee guys leading this.

This is so retarded. "Protest" against division by killing preterm infants in the Vizag neo natal ICU due to power cuts ! Criminal. If even one child dies for any reason, I hope criminal culpability and liability and prosecution is brought on the Electricity guys and the union leaders and the guys leading the agitation.

I do hope the KTK, TN and Kerala guys have taken every step to insulate themselves from the Andhra connections in the southern grid . Even during CBN days, Andhra used to trip the southern grid multiple times by repeated overdrawals leading TN to island itself. I do hope they have the islanding contingencies in place . You cant argue with nutcases and motivated rubbish like this strike, just let them shoot themselves in the foot and come to their senses. This ranks right along stupidity like listen to me or I'll hold my breath and turn blue! Or pay me money or I'll shoot myself in the forehead!

What else, but that this entire thing being "manufactured", conclusion be drawn out of idiocies like this JAC leaders lay siege to ICICI Bank in Kurnool

Why the siege ? Because ICICI wasn't giving "consumption" loan to the striking govt workers like the other PSU banks are doing. Boggles ones imagination. These guys go on strike, which if ESMA is invoked is plainly illegal, and the banks give the "consumption" loans for those guys to tide over cash flow problems presumably.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 08 Oct 2013 10:23

http://eenadu.net/news/newsitem.aspx?item=panel&no=6

Title: NO stopping of the stir.
Workers union walks out of the meeting (with group of state ministers)

The interesting thing is this: The group of ministers want that atleast the tahsildar and RDO level officers come out of the stir so that they can use their magesterial powers to do atleast some work.

At the ground level, when ESMA is used these are the officers on the ground who take the decisions. So right now, they dont have the officers on the ground even to fully use ESMA.

Ofcourse once they use ESMA, I expect these officers to return back to their posts.

The congress will not use ESMA, it has backed itself into a corner - Unless it wants to bury itself forever and make congress a dirty word forever.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 08 Oct 2013 10:31

Vina,

I know that you have always wanted to destroy the people of Seemandhra. You were cheering when T was destroying its property and handing out more fuel in T. now that you might feel the pinch from the reaction...

Oh swell, carry on with your tirades. Your shree mati rajmata ji is carrying out your wishes of destroying Andhra.

Right now , I only hope that amrit will be the final result of this andhra manthan.

disha · Post by **disha** » 08 Oct 2013 10:58

vina wrote:Gosh. This Kiran Kumar Reddy seems to be literally fiddling like a Nero or deliberately stoking the fires in the rest of Andhra. Two months without public transport, and now power shut downs, closing down trains, airports, hopitals and water.

WTH ? This surely has all the hallmarks of a sponsored strike. Why in dickens has the ESMA not been employed and the transport and electricity and other guys not ordered back to work and he danda not applied to the union and "joint" action committee guys leading this.

This is so retarded. "Protest" against division by killing preterm infants in the Vizag neo natal ICU due to power cuts ! Criminal. If even one child dies for any reason, I hope criminal culpability and liability and prosecution is brought on the Electricity guys and the union leaders and the guys leading the agitation.

I do hope the KTK, TN and Kerala guys have taken every step to insulate themselves from the Andhra connections in the southern grid . Even during CBN days, Andhra used to trip the southern grid multiple times by repeated overdrawals leading TN to island itself. I do hope they have the islanding contingencies in place . You cant argue with nutcases and motivated rubbish like this strike, just let them shoot themselves in the foot and come to their senses. This ranks right along stupidity like listen to me or I'll hold my breath and turn blue! Or pay me money or I'll shoot myself in the forehead!

What else, but that this entire thing being "manufactured", conclusion be drawn out of idiocies like this JAC leaders lay siege to ICICI Bank in Kurnool

Why the siege ? Because ICICI wasn't giving "consumption" loan to the striking govt workers like the other PSU banks are doing. Boggles ones imagination. These guys go on strike, which if ESMA is invoked is plainly illegal, and the banks give the "consumption" loans for those guys to tide over cash flow problems presumably.

Yes, ESMA should be invoked.

In fact all the officers who violate ESMA both in spirit and law and may also be given a taste of hyderabadi mirchi*., however ESMA is not invoked by CongI CM Kiran Kumar Reddy at state level and CongI PM at national level and CongI Party president Ms. Sonia G. Why? Why are they not invoking ESMA. Are they so dumb? Or are they smart by half?

I really want ESMA to be invoked and the strike by electricity employees foiled OR the strike by electricity employees will succeed and the entire southern grid will collapse. Let the rest of SI see how capable is the CongI government again.

*Rhetoric.

vina · Post by **vina** » 08 Oct 2013 11:00

Virupaksha wrote:The congress will not use ESMA, it has backed itself into a corner - Unless it wants to bury itself forever and make congress a dirty word forever.

I know, this has all the marks of shadow boxing, with the Seemandhra side of the govt and politicos encouraging and sustaining these "protests" . Sure, do protest and make your opinion felt strongly. But becoming a public nuisance in the name of "protests" is another thing altogether. There is a fine line between protests and rank irresponsibility .

Virupaksha wrote:Vina,

I know that you have always wanted to destroy the people of Seemandhra. You were cheering when T was destroying its property and handing out more fuel in T. now that you might feel the pinch from the reaction...

Hmm. I see, I am the one who "always wanted to destroy" the people of Seemandhra.

Killing kids in neonatal ICU is elevating to people of Seemandhra. Being stuck for want of public transport is as well. Dying due to emergency procedures and operations not happening, women in labor cannot deliver in hospitals, and schools and businesses shut down is definitely elevating and constructive and definitely "saving" Seemandhra.

And this is cost free to the govt busy bodies who are not getting their salaries docked and are getting "consumption loans" for their "efforts" , while the daily wage earner and others whose salaries and wages DO get docked for not being able to work pay a massive cost.

Right now , I only hope that amrit will be the final result of this andhra manthan.

Come on guys. Knock it off. This is a manufactured storm in a tea cup whipped up by vested interests , primarily over pecuniary interests in Hyderabad and the political cover needed there for that to continue.

disha · Post by **disha** » 08 Oct 2013 11:05

^^

Hey, Modi was called a Nero, a baby killer etc. So wondering what to make out of CongIs now? It is a CongressI government in AP and Center and it was a CongI cabinet which took the decision with inputs from a CongI home minister.

If they are not able to bifurcate a state amicably when all of their powers are lined up, then what is their use? And if any innocents die, why blame the people on the streets isnt' the responsibility of government is with government? That is what they elected their representatives for - to govern.

disha · Post by **disha** » 08 Oct 2013 11:11

vina wrote:Come on guys. Knock it off. This is a manufactured storm in a tea cup whipped up by vested interests , primarily over pecuniary interests in Hyderabad and the political cover needed there for that to continue.

There is a saying, if you do not respect fire or have ability to control fire, do not play with fire. Now why throw tantrums on behalf of NDTV sponsored news items talking about neo-natal kids? Do not the hospitals have auxillary power? Anyway, there is not much electricity to go around in AP!!

Rhetoric on neo-natals in ICU etc may tug at heart strings, and while we are at it, life in fact has become a "dozhak" for people in SA. So why this continuous outpouring of grief?

And sir, if you have the power to stop this strike and bring peace and development - more power to you. Please do all the needful to stop this "nonsense"., you have all the support.

niran · Post by **niran** » 08 Oct 2013 11:12

disha wrote:
In fact all the officers who violate ESMA both in spirit and law and may also be given a taste of hyderabadi mirchi*., however ESMA is not invoked by CongI CM Kiran Kumar Reddy at state level and CongI PM at national level and CongI Party president Ms. Sonia G. Why? Why are they not invoking ESMA. Are they so dumb? Or are they smart by half?

*Rhetoric.

the same game of "Ordinance nonsense wrt public interest should be taken back" is being played, point to note that jaygoonmohan reddy is getting airtime for his alleged fasting even in bhojpuri NEWS channels, these same channels earlier onree knew South existed onree when a bomb blast took place, now every 15 minutes in the Headlines a clip displaying Orangish yellow 3 wheelers plying and jaygoonmohan reddy yakking yakking while fasting. in a few days RG/reddy janab is going to rescue the people from those ebil strickers
and most proily they will be saffron wearers.
this a cow belti loike moi can understand, why cannot ye people?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 08 Oct 2013 11:14

Congress is sikular by birth. Even if Andhra separation costs a million lives. They will still be sikular. While finding a way to blame, RSS / BJP.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 08 Oct 2013 11:26

They can only print sickular certificates along with Participatory Notes. On serious note what can govt do? Remove 7 lakh people from jobs? Jj tried it once and own her case also in Super Court. They lost election. If mafia wish to do vomit can try. Anyway there is a urgent cabinet meeting at 11 today which is likely to discuss the problems mafia facing. 4 ministers are insisting on resignations saying they have been cheated. What a joke.