Re: Terroristan - April 24, 2018
Posted: 05 Jun 2018 03:02
https://www.firstpost.com/india/to-solv ... 94221.html
To solve Kashmir conundrum, India needs political will to carry 'irregular war' into enemy territory
Prakash Katoch Jun 04, 2018
The euphoria over Pakistani DGMO asking for a ceasefire and both India-Pakistan agreeing to abide by the 2003 agreement has been shattered with two BSF jawans were killed and 12 civilians injured on Sunday after Pakistan pounded 10 posts and 35 villages in the Jammu region.
Soon afterward, Indian television news channels labelled Pakistan “coward”, ISI-henchman Masood Azhar publicly declared firing will not cease, and Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Mehbooba Mufti said that the DGMOs from the two countries must talk. It is the same cycle that follows every such incident because India consistently fails to acknowledge the strategic asymmetry that Pakistan enjoys over India in terms of irregular warfare.
Take a look at the ‘conditional’ ceasefire that was imposed in Jammu and Kashmir during Ramzan on the advice of Mehbooba Mufti. Many write-ups appeared hailing it under the euphuism of Non-Initiation of Combat Operations (NICO). The Americans are leaders in coining terms like NICO — remember the terms “violent terrorism”, “good terrorists”, “bad terrorists”? From the American perspective, “good terrorists” can continue with their radicalisation programmes till they don’t indulge in “violent terrorism”. But in citing NICO, India forgets that the Americans are not engaged in counter-insurgency on US soil. They can afford a lull in supporting an administration in foreign territory. Instability may be beneficial for continued presence, apart from many other reasons. During NICO, US troops can go into their ‘green’ zones under layers of security.
All this, however, is hardly relevant to Jammu and Kashmir where NICO implies opportunity for terrorists to regroup in the absence of cordon and search operations, and search and destroy missions. Not that any action is taken against armed terrorists who even fire weapons during funerals of those killed! One major reason cited for NICO in Jammu and Kashmir is that Kashmiri youth were joining militancy in increasing numbers. Militants killed in the Valley rose from 12 in 2014 to 23 in 2015, 33 in 2016 and 80 in 2017. Correspondingly, the number of youth joining militancy rose from 53 in 2014 to 66 in 2015, 88 in 2016 and 131 in 2017. They arrived at the conclusion that conditional ceasefire would deter the youth from joining militancy. Was any analysis done why the youth are joining militancy and what is likely to happen during NICO? What about after Ramzan is over?
.....
Gautam
To solve Kashmir conundrum, India needs political will to carry 'irregular war' into enemy territory
Prakash Katoch Jun 04, 2018
The euphoria over Pakistani DGMO asking for a ceasefire and both India-Pakistan agreeing to abide by the 2003 agreement has been shattered with two BSF jawans were killed and 12 civilians injured on Sunday after Pakistan pounded 10 posts and 35 villages in the Jammu region.
Soon afterward, Indian television news channels labelled Pakistan “coward”, ISI-henchman Masood Azhar publicly declared firing will not cease, and Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Mehbooba Mufti said that the DGMOs from the two countries must talk. It is the same cycle that follows every such incident because India consistently fails to acknowledge the strategic asymmetry that Pakistan enjoys over India in terms of irregular warfare.
Take a look at the ‘conditional’ ceasefire that was imposed in Jammu and Kashmir during Ramzan on the advice of Mehbooba Mufti. Many write-ups appeared hailing it under the euphuism of Non-Initiation of Combat Operations (NICO). The Americans are leaders in coining terms like NICO — remember the terms “violent terrorism”, “good terrorists”, “bad terrorists”? From the American perspective, “good terrorists” can continue with their radicalisation programmes till they don’t indulge in “violent terrorism”. But in citing NICO, India forgets that the Americans are not engaged in counter-insurgency on US soil. They can afford a lull in supporting an administration in foreign territory. Instability may be beneficial for continued presence, apart from many other reasons. During NICO, US troops can go into their ‘green’ zones under layers of security.
All this, however, is hardly relevant to Jammu and Kashmir where NICO implies opportunity for terrorists to regroup in the absence of cordon and search operations, and search and destroy missions. Not that any action is taken against armed terrorists who even fire weapons during funerals of those killed! One major reason cited for NICO in Jammu and Kashmir is that Kashmiri youth were joining militancy in increasing numbers. Militants killed in the Valley rose from 12 in 2014 to 23 in 2015, 33 in 2016 and 80 in 2017. Correspondingly, the number of youth joining militancy rose from 53 in 2014 to 66 in 2015, 88 in 2016 and 131 in 2017. They arrived at the conclusion that conditional ceasefire would deter the youth from joining militancy. Was any analysis done why the youth are joining militancy and what is likely to happen during NICO? What about after Ramzan is over?
.....
Gautam