Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2014 03:18

Bad imitation!

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 09 Apr 2014 03:42

muraliravi, thanks for that most insightful vote-share breakdown - from your keyboard to the voters fingers !

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Apr 2014 03:51

Sanjay wrote:muraliravi, thanks for that most insightful vote-share breakdown - from your keyboard to the voters fingers !

Btw, i have assumed 85% voting for muslims in all scenarios of voter turnout, so it should be quite conservative.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 09 Apr 2014 04:22

overall things still looking good ?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 Apr 2014 04:30

muraliravi wrote:Sir, I shudder to predict seats, here is my estimate of the vote shares in UP based on voting % on election day

In 2009, voter turnout in UP was quite poor, at 47.78% . Expecting 65%+ this time is probably unreasonable. Therefore BJP's voteshare numbers will probably trend on the lower end of this estimate, unless the current election dynamics (new voters, Modi wave, alliance and candidate selection) makes a significant difference.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 09 Apr 2014 04:35

Muslims, not Hindus, won Kargil for India: Azam Khan
TNN | Apr 9, 2014, 03.46 AM IST

Azam is probably the first political leader to have attempted to drag the Indian Army into the muck of electioneering.

LUCKNOW: Samajwadi Party leader Azam Khan made yet another desperate bid to stoke controversy and polarise vote on Monday by alleging the 1999 Kargil war was fought and won by Muslim soldiers. Addressing an election gathering in Ghaziabad parliamentary constituency - the region goes to polls on April 10 -- Azam said, "Kargil ki pahadiyon ko fateh karne wale Hindu sainik nahin balki Musalmaan they. (Muslim soldiers conquered the hills of Kargil)"

Taking political discourse to another new low, Azam is probably the first political leader to have attempted to drag the Indian Army into the muck of electioneering. The first and strongest reactions to the SP leaders' remarks came from a former Army man -- BJP's candidate from Ghaziabad and former Army chief General VK Singh who dismissed Azam's remarks as absolutely "atrocious". Singh went on to add that "Indians" won the Kargil war, not people from one or another community.

Reacting to Khan's statements, Congress leaders said the comments were not only entirely frivolous but also intended to divide the people on communal lines. They also said it was shameful that a senior leader like Azam, whose party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has served as the country's defence minister, was attempting to discredit the country's Armed forces in this way. "The Indian armed forces rise above trivialities such as caste, creed or race to serve every citizen of the country. It is absolutely shameful that the SP has to stoop to these levels to woo voters. It only proves Azam's own anti-national credentials," a Congress leader said.

This is not the first time Azam has tried to hog the limelight through his controversial and openly inflammatory statements. During an election rally, he referred to BJP national general secretary Amit Shah as "Goonda No 1". He said, "Aaj kal 302 ke hatyare vote maangne ghoom rahey hain." (These days people accused of murder under section 302 of the IPC are asking for votes).

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... ?prtpage=1

Most of Paid media sitting on this story - or at best doing an equal equal with Amit Shah (badla with vote) or Modi (pink revolution).

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2014 04:37

Suraj, Telegraph, Kolkata has an article on Western UP the area of the recent riots and the locay poll dynamics.
The minority vote is confused between voting against BJP and self interest in development.
The majority wants development just like Gujarat. Some of the names mentioned are BSP core support groups.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2014 04:40

Lilo, In a roundabout way Azam Khan is saying that Indian Muslims are Indians. The TNT took a major hit. TSP always fancies itself as 'protecting' Indian Muslims in India. Here he is saying that not so. Wish he had said it differently without dragging Indian Army ethos and culture.

Also to support my conclusion he brings in Amit Shah of whom he is afraid in his own den!

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 09 Apr 2014 04:49

VikramS wrote:If twitter is an indication the polarization against BJP among Muslims is complete.
Even those who rarely talk politics are in 'fear' of Modi now...

I think the most important factor in this election is going to be whether you can get your voter to the booth. I hope that BJP doesn't falter at the last step.

Any idea from Twitter whether the same applies to Hindus vs the 'secular parties'?

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 09 Apr 2014 04:53

ramana wrote:Lilo, In a roundabout way Azam Khan is saying that Indian Muslims are Indians. The TNT took a major hit. TSP always fancies itself as 'protecting' Indian Muslims in India. Here he is saying that not so. Wish he had said it differently without dragging Indian Army ethos and culture.

Also to support my conclusion he brings in Amit Shah of whom he is afraid in his own den!

Ramana garu,
Can be seen that way , but intention matters - considering its Azam Khan I don't think its made with best of intentions.
Further he claims no "Hindu" soldiers fought in kargil , but claims "Muslim" soldiers fought and won kargil.

Basically false H&D being projected in a 1 momeen = 10 kaafir like theory , is what methinks.

Probably shoring up the particular stream of self conscious Muslims - who are feeling an association to Modi's patriotic fervor infused campaign - now his kargil claims are targeted in relapsing this desh first , muslim second guys back into the pit of SPs mullah raj.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 09 Apr 2014 05:05

Suraj wrote:The BSP votebank may not be firm, if 5forty3's suggestions are anything to go by - Mayawati is scoping out a deal where the BSP tacitly helps BJP in western UP in the LS elections in exchange for support to get back to power in the next VS elections. Explicitly wooing Yadavs and receiving LS support from BSP cadre would significantly dent the ability of the Muslims to tactically consolidate against the BJP on a seat-by-seat basis because they simply cannot make up the numbers. Which is exactly how it should be because this whole exercise has descended into a bare-knuckle fight with one small demographic attempting to impose a veto on the choice of the majority.

Combined with Behenjis demand to split UP, not a bad idea for BJP take her support now and support her in the newly formed UP states. If they can get 3/4 states between them, SP is finished.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2014 05:44

After AP being split like Radcliffe award, I dont support any more divisions.
SP will be finished as their ideology is stale. Mandalization can get you so far and if all you want pwoer for is to loot then you will suffer Congress fate.

Truly MMS is adhunik Shakuni mama to Sonia Gandhari and Rahul Baba. He let them destroy themselves with hubris and show true face of the unelectable courtiers from AKA,to PC to Shinde to Oily Moily.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 09 Apr 2014 05:49

muraliravi wrote: If jats have moved completely to BJP, then muslims can kiss good bye to these seats as well except Rampur and Moradabad.

Even Moradabad is possible. Muslims make up around 45% here, but usually counter polarisation occurs always, except for Yadavs. If BJP can take the Yadav vote this time, Muslims could lose Moradabad as well. The most interesting seat in the region is Budaun - has high number of Muslims, OBCs and Yadavs. If someone from the region can post on the BJP prognosis in Budaun, it would help us understand how things are shaping up in the region.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2014 05:55

Dont know the candidate but here is
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Badaun_(Lo ... stituency)

Only two MLA seats are Muslims.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 09 Apr 2014 06:01

Suraj wrote: In 2009, voter turnout in UP was quite poor, at 47.78% . Expecting 65%+ this time is probably unreasonable. Therefore BJP's voteshare numbers will probably trend on the lower end of this estimate, unless the current election dynamics (new voters, Modi wave, alliance and candidate selection) makes a significant difference.

The voter turnout in Assembly 2012 was 59.5% in UP. Given that this is a very charged election and BJP voter is going to be more enthusiastic about voting for the BJP, I would not expect total turnout to be <55%, may even cross 60%. If voting can cross 60%, BJP has a very good chance of making the cut in UP. Last time, in 98, when there was 56% voting, BJP won 52 (+3 for allies) seats.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 09 Apr 2014 06:02

I think this 60% is the new normal. in my very humble opinion.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 09 Apr 2014 06:04

ramana wrote:Dont know the candidate but here is
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Badaun_(Lo ... stituency)

Only two MLA seats are Muslims.

True, Ramana-ji. Budaun is a seat where Muslims are ~25% or so. OBCs and Yadavs make up good chunks of the electorate. This is a seat where SP wins by Muslim-Yadav-OBC combine. If BJP is doing well here, it means that BJP has dented the SP's OBCs and Yadavs sufficiently here. It will tell us how effective BJP's OBC, and Yadav wooing has been.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 09 Apr 2014 06:05

nageshks wrote:
Suraj wrote: In 2009, voter turnout in UP was quite poor, at 47.78% . Expecting 65%+ this time is probably unreasonable. Therefore BJP's voteshare numbers will probably trend on the lower end of this estimate, unless the current election dynamics (new voters, Modi wave, alliance and candidate selection) makes a significant difference.
The voter turnout in Assembly 2012 was 59.5% in UP. Given that this is a very charged election and BJP voter is going to be more enthusiastic about voting for the BJP, I would not expect total turnout to be <55%, may even cross 60%. If voting can cross 60%, BJP has a very good chance of making the cut in UP. Last time, in 98, when there was 56% voting, BJP won 52 (+3 for allies) seats.

I would be surprised if it turns out to be < 70%

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 09 Apr 2014 06:10

http://m.timesofindia.com/home/lok-sabh ... 473069.cms

In four Haryana seats, INLD and BJP put Cong out of picture
Apr 9, 2014, 05.16AM IST TNN[ Dipak Kumar Dash ]

NEW DELHI: The fight in at least four Lok Sabha seats in Haryana - Gurgaon, Hisar, Ambala and Sirsa - going to polls on Thursday is likely to be between Om Prakash Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and BJP-Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) alliance.

The election is crucial for INLD's revival in the state as the party tries to win back the Jat votes, months before the assembly polls. Political observers feel there are indications of INLD ending up supporting Narendra Modi as prime minister and a better show by it could rock the BJP-HJC alliance before the state elections.

In Gurgaon, the electoral contest could primarily be between BJP's Yadav leader Rao Inderjit Singh, who recently crossed over from Congress, and INLD's Zakir Hussain- a popular Meo-Muslim face from Mewat and former MLA from the region. New entrant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)'s Yogendra Yadav, a familiar face on TV, could find his maiden electoral contest tough. Inderjit is banking on his strong support base in the Yadav belt apart from Modi's perceived charisma. On the other hand, Zakir's chance cannot be discounted considering the likelihood of this Meo leader cornering Muslim votes and INLD's captive Jat votes.

It's no different in Ambala where Congress is on the back foot after former Union minister Kumari Selja quit and got elected to Rajya Sabha and one of its strong MLAs, Vinod Sharma, also left the party. The battle is likely to be between Rattan Lal Kataria of BJP and INLD's Kushum Bala Sherwal. While Kataria was elected to Lok Sabha from Ambala in 1999, Sherwal had contested from Mullana assembly seat as BSP candidate in 2000, finishing third.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2014 06:18

fanne wrote:I think this 60% is the new normal. in my very humble opinion.

Also don't forget UP has Modi as the PM candidate. It brings UP pride back to be able to elect the PM.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 09 Apr 2014 06:19

http://www.rediff.com/news/column/ls-el ... 140408.htm

Today, Muzaffarnagar reminds one of Gujarat after Godhra.

The riots of September 2013 have left a deep scar. Bharatiya Janata Party leader Amit Shah's recent speech to the Jats to take revenge by pushing the button on the EVM has heated up local society.

For the first time, Jats and Muslims in the sugar belt will vote differently to defeat each other's party.

In the 10 Lok Sabha seats in western UP, it is Narendra Modi versus the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, and Congress-Rashtriya Lok Dal.

Saharanpur, Bijnor, Baghpat and Meerut are among the 10 seats going to polls on Thursday, April 10.

Just 36 hours before polling begins, the divide between Jats and Muslims has increased manifold and it is obvious that people everywhere are talking the language of Amit Shah.

The BJP's Sanjeev Baliyan, accused of making a provocative speech to the Jat panchayat, and the BSP's sitting MP Qader Rana are the front-runners to win the Muzaffarnagar seat.

In the couple of hours that you spend in the city you find it is not the BJP that is asking for the votes of an excited section of Hindus, but it is the people who are clinging to Modi.

A local journalist said, "We are surprised to see the BJP not asking for votes. It is the people who want to give their votes to Modi."

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 09 Apr 2014 06:20

http://www.rediff.com/news/column/le-el ... 140408.htm

However there is a small problem which the Jats face. Their original loyalty is to Chaudhary Charan Singh and his son Ajit Singh. Ajit Singh is credited with getting the Jats the status of OBC, a decision taken by the UPA government just a few weeks before the announcement of elections. This has become a dilemma, especially for the older Jats as they are pulled towards the BJP, but can’t ignore the fact that the reservation to their community means much. The younger Jats, by and large have no such dilemmas. The Modi lure is too intense for them to resist.

If this is the problem of the Jats, the Dalits, who have always sworn their loyalty to Mayawati and her BSP, are also in a fix. While the lure of being seen as part of the larger Hindu monolith, which the BJP is campaigning for, is attractive. But their loyalty and the fact that Mayawati and her mentor Kanshi Ram gave them a voice, cannot be forgotten. However, those Dalits who live in villages with Muslims, their choice has become simpler. The fact that during the riots, they felt targetted by the Muslims, has given them reason to shift towards the BJP, as many believe.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 09 Apr 2014 06:38

^ The seductive slogan "Desh ke liye modi, pradesh ke liye behenji" is also taking a toll on maya's core jatav base, seems like...

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Apr 2014 06:43

Suraj wrote:
muraliravi wrote:Sir, I shudder to predict seats, here is my estimate of the vote shares in UP based on voting % on election day

In 2009, voter turnout in UP was quite poor, at 47.78% . Expecting 65%+ this time is probably unreasonable. Therefore BJP's voteshare numbers will probably trend on the lower end of this estimate, unless the current election dynamics (new voters, Modi wave, alliance and candidate selection) makes a significant difference.

In 2012 assembly polls it was 60%, so it may touch 65% this time

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 Apr 2014 06:51

Can you explain why ? What polarized the electorate before the 2012 VS elections to generate a 60% turnout ? How did the turnout in that VS compare to the ones before ? Also, is there any prior data on Muslim turnout in LS elections ? I'm not criticizing, but am just curious; until Thurday it's hard to guess what the western UP turnout will be.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 09 Apr 2014 07:24

Every where EJ and Jihadi voting will be near 100%. Let us not have any doubt on that. Huge hate based mobilisation is going on and almost all gangs are desperate to get their votes. The question is whether NM could get significant Hindu vote in his favour and Hindus are coming out to vote or not. All indications are they are. Extent of consolidation of Hindu vote is also critical and it is this consolidation since RJ agitation days that is creating fear among the sicular gangs and mafias.

I have spoken with few Jats from UP and they say except for Ajit Singh almost no one else will win from Jat seats. Remote and unheard areas are visited by NM in other belts and mobilisation is huge. Even in these areas almost 3 to 4 lac people are attending the meeting which is unheard.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 09 Apr 2014 08:52

ramana wrote:
Also to support my conclusion he brings in Amit Shah of whom he is afraid in his own den!

Amit Shah seems to invoke a very Abrahamic sense of disguised respect & admiration of the enemy in many GV politicos.

niran · Post by **niran** » 09 Apr 2014 08:58

folks here are dhoti shivering on around 30% mainority population, well it is the population which is 30% or in some concentrated places around 45% not the voters% comprende?
out of which onree 10-15% of eligible female voters exercise their right to vote rest are burkhaied
to save mainority mard's H&D earlier it would be male child or male relatives who would vote in place of these wimmin but sonce 2009 they have these blasted foto voter IDs that makes lotsa mards namards(here it means unable to save H&D) out of the eligible male voters Shia vote for BJP have been doing that since 1998 they are more than 60% in and around Kanpur Lucknow and Moradabad, 30% in Rampur(Azam khan's home turf) 20% in Mayroot 10-15% in rest of the areas except Deoband
there they are 0%. that makes a paltry 15-20% voters of mainority voters that too not all votes
so why are ye all shivering? hainji?

and no, BSP and BJP has no alliance secret covert whatsoever, BSP has stop pouring moolah in western UP campaign cause of "Consolidation" maya ben have wise calculated her chances in western UP so she is vying her chances in central UP.

Ajit Singh is in 50/50 zone, i.e. BJP has equal chance of winning it, all depends on whose cadres
are able to mobilize more, and here BJP has an edge wait for the day the target for bjp cadres is 80+% of voter mobilization and if it is achieved then it will be goodbye RLD SP congress and BSP and all others me too parties.

in Assam and Tripura me have proper data mohalla/tolla/village wise mobilization all i can say is
6 out of seven for BJP. no me cannot share it.

Kairana seat: here you must have heard the name of Kadir Rana of BSP beign peddled by media men
as a contender, in reality there are onree 16 villages consisting of around 53,000 voters who are mainority out of which 2700 are Shias. do the maths yourselves gents, and see for yourself the truth.

vic · Post by **vic** » 09 Apr 2014 09:15

I hope for 65%+ voting in UP with 65+ seats for BJP. Hoping BJP will get 240+ and NDA 290+ in these elections.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 09 Apr 2014 09:23

On twitter

Desh ka election hai, Dilli ka nahin
Sher ka election hai, Billi ka nahin

Billboard in Delhi

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 09 Apr 2014 09:51

Any Idea how is Retd. Gen V.K.Singh doing in Gaziabad ? We need people like him in Parliament.

member_28468 · Post by **member_28468** » 09 Apr 2014 09:57

I have this ravanlella i will share give me some time

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 09 Apr 2014 10:00

[quote="ramana"]After AP being split like Radcliffe award, I dont support any more divisions.

I agree... We managed to avoid the real scare in AP division. No more division for few years. Let things slow down.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 Apr 2014 11:15

Congress candidates aren’t getting much money from the party
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... [quote]NEW DELHI: As if the burden of incumbency wasn't enough, Congress's task in the current Lok Sabha polls seems to have been further complicated by what party managers claim is a severe funds crunch, which has put it at a further disadvantage vis-a-vis a resurgent BJP.

A Congress heavyweight told this paper, "Between Congress and BJP, they are getting 90% of the money, we are getting just 10%." Even if that sounds like a bit of an exaggeration, conversations with Congress candidates and their managers over the past week indicate that the ruling party has, for a change, been vastly outgunned by the BJP, and may actually be running on half-empty.

"I have seen several Lok Sabha and assembly elections, but the financial deficit Congress is facing this time is unprecedented," says a veteran Congress MP.

...
Party managers in states like Chhattisgarh, Punjab and Maharashtra say the money this time is well below normal. The big donors - industrialists and other sundry moneybags - appear to have divined which way the wind is blowing. And their money is flowing in that direction.[/quote]ConGrease has decided to conserve funds in expectation of defeat.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 09 Apr 2014 11:19

probably setting them aside for something else.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Apr 2014 11:19

Ravi Prasad Rudy asks how is the above possible when the UPA has looted the treasury for 10 yrs. he is asking if various leading looters have decamped with the loot as personal wealth.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 Apr 2014 11:23

Extended foreign stay for the party leaders and hangers-on will be a costly affair. So fund mobilization by cutting on election expense. When you know the result why throw good money after bad.

rajithn · Post by **rajithn** » 09 Apr 2014 11:35

krishnan wrote:probably setting them aside for something else.

They know they are not going to win this time. So they are not spending from their war chest. Expect them to use some of the money post-elections to foment trouble in different states.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 Apr 2014 11:39

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 30m

Sonia: "RaeBareli is my Karmabhoomi"| Modi: "Vadodara is my karmabhoomi"| Rahul: "Dont know .."| Kejriwal: "Ford & SBI are my karmabhoomi"