India-China News and Discussion

[RayC]

Openly the Communists do not accuse China of her imperialist and colonial mode of governance. Nor of their subtle manner of expansionism.

I saw an interview with Gurudas Dasgupta over the brouhaha raised by the Arunachal MP of BJP on Chinese incursion and how the GOI was not concerned.

He said he was not seized with the facts or words to that effect.

This good man, the MP did not say that if it were true, then it was a matter of concern.

[harbans]

Interestingly, the just-published monthly statement of the Indian Home Ministry refers to progress on road construction "on the Indo-Tibetan border". This is a departure from the standard Indian formulation for decades of the "India-China border".

For years, Indian strategic elites have argued that Tibet is a card that India must play to offset Chinese irredentism. Much to their chagrin, Indian policymakers in government have avoided reopening the folder on Tibet's status, inviting a chorus of dissenting voices chiding them for "spinelessness".

Professor Chellaney has even drawn an analogy that bolsters the Indian case for questioning China's control over Tibet. He avers that China is "doing a Taiwan" on Arunachal, that is, attempting to grab Indian territory via the ethnic Tibetan character of some of India's northeastern states, and adding another "reunification with the mainland" agenda item.

For Indian thinkers, Delhi must turn China's core claim over Tibet into an issue in order to ultimately defend Arunachal or Sikkim. Already outmatched by China's military buildup on its side of the border, Indian strategists worry that remaining "sheepish" on Tibet is to be pushed permanently on the back foot.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KJ03Df02.html

India has no way out but to make Tibet an issue which rightfully should be the case.

[harbans]

Another article from ATimes. Apologies if posted earlier.

Tawang is strategically important. It provides the shortest route from Tibet into India and connects Tibet with the Brahmaputra Valley in India's northeast. Indian military officials believe that control over Arunachal - and Tawang in particular - would enable Chinese forces to militarily overrun the Brahmaputra Valley and the rest of the northeast. Clearly, memories remain of the 1962 invasion by the Chinese, and the fierce fighting that took place then at Tawang.

China lays claim to Tawang on behalf of the Tibetans, as a means to win Tibetan hearts and minds. But the Tibetan exile community here in India is not impressed. It is not claiming Tawang as Tibetan, let alone Chinese territory. Although in 2003 the Dalai Lama referred obliquely to Tawang being part of Tibet, he has acknowledged several times the validity of the McMahon Line as per the Simla Agreement (under which Tawang is Indian territory) and admitted more explicitly in 2008 that Arunachal is a part of India.

The Dalai Lama's upcoming visit has prompted officials of his government-in-exile in India to reiterate - much to Beijing's annoyance - India's sovereignty over Arunachal.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KI18Df02.html

[a_bharat]

Beijing and Burma no longer best of friends
...
The first signs of the cracks in the relationship appeared when the Burmese army launched an offensive against the Kokang ethnic rebels who have had a truce with the regime for twenty years. Thousands of refugees fled across the border for safety, raising fears of a fresh civil war along Burma’s northern border and alarming China. Beijing’s attitude to Burma has also been compounded by concern over the junta’s future relations with the United States – Beijing is wary of Washington’s offer to the junta of a dialogue.
...
Beijing’s current concerns stem from the unstable basis of their bilateral relationship. The Chinese government remains suspicious of the Burmese military junta. “When we meet the Thais, they look Chinese and speak Chinese, but when we see the Burmese leaders, they don’t speak Chinese and they look South Asian,” said a senior Chinese government official.

‘Burma and China are not ‘real’ friends – as with Thailand for example,” he said. “It’s a Machiavellian relationship: we are in for what we can get out of it, and they are also in it, for what they can get out of it,” he said.
...
“Though generals are certainly unhappy about being too dependent on one supporter, and will be trying to balance Chinese influence with better relations with the US as well as other countries –like ASEAN and India, they will not be looking to cut the umbilical cord with China in the near future,” said Win Min.
...

http://www.mizzima.com/news/regional/28 ... iends.html

India should actively try to make use of any small opportunities to drive a wedge between the two countries.

[csharma]

Coming from C RajaMohan, this does not sound good.


China's naval nationalism: Has A K Antony blinked?

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/china ... d/525249/0

Why is it all right for the Chinese Navy to operate in India's backyard and wrong, from the perspective of our Ministry of Defence, for the Indian Navy to conduct naval exercises in China's frontyard?

As Beijing revels in its newly minted naval nationalism, New Delhi seems determined to curb the Indian Navy's enthusiasm to raise the nation's maritime profile.

The MoD's decision, at the eleventh hour, to pull the services out of a multilateral naval exercise in the Western Pacific last week, begs some serious questions. Is the Minister of Defence, A K Antony, in sync with India's naval aspirations? Or has he begun to feel the heat from the Chinese pressures on our land borders?

Questions about his uncertain naval vision arose when he refused to let the Navy join the international operations against pirates in the Gulf of Aden last year. As Antony dithered for long before saying yes, Beijing used the international concerns on piracy to mount its first ever expeditionary naval operation into the Indian Ocean.

As it completes its year-long deployment in the Indian Ocean, Beijing is now eager to expand its maritime cooperation with the US and other western powers that have begun to acknowledge China's rise as a naval power.

The Indian Navy, which has a longer record of modern operations at sea and enjoys many maritime advantages over China, appears increasingly tied down by the terrible timidity of the MoD's political leadership.

In contrast, the Chinese Communist Party has embarked on a massive mobilisation of naval nationalism. CCP chairman Hu Jintao repeatedly talks of China's "manifest maritime destiny". Thanks to the CCP campaign, Chinese citizens are turning up in droves to offer personal donations to help Beijing build aircraft carriers.

If Antony thinks he is being 'nice' to the Chinese by cancelling exercises in the Western Pacific, he has no inkling of how Beijing thinks. The Chinese respect those with the will to power, and they mount relentless pressure on those who wilt.

Recall the recent Chinese tease for a naval condominium with the US: Washington could stay in the Eastern Pacific and China would police the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans.

As it rises, China will inevitably build a powerful navy. It is also logical that China will protect its growing interests in the Indian Ocean. There is no way India can or should stop it. New Delhi must focus, instead, on consolidating its own position in the Indian Ocean and elevating its maritime profile in the Western Pacific.

It is that strategic parity that will provide the basis for a much needed maritime dialogue and cooperation with China. But if New Delhi is eager to offer unilateral naval concessions, why blame Beijing for turning up the heat?

(C. Raja Mohan is Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and International Relations at the Library of Congress, Washington DC).

[Sanku]

Coming from C RajaMohan, this does not sound good.

(C. Raja Mohan is Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and International Relations at the Library of Congress, Washington DC).

C Raja Mohan always seems to have great takleef when Indian actions and American intrests do not coincide.

Whether or not it is in Indian interest or not is never clear.

[kittoo]

Coming from C RajaMohan, this does not sound good.

(C. Raja Mohan is Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and International Relations at the Library of Congress, Washington DC).

C Raja Mohan always seems to have great takleef when Indian actions and American intrests do not coincide.

Whether or not it is in Indian interest or not is never clear.

I dont know much about Raja Mohan's political tilting, but I agree with Sanku that there maybe other reasons for aborting going in the exercise. I dont believe (or at least find it hard to believe) that it was called off just because India didnt want to anger China.

[Yogi_G]

I think the big issue preventing India from making Tibet an issue is that from 50's it has been a big subscriber to the One China policy which applies to both Tibet and Taiwan (Formosa of those days). I don't see how we can shed ourselves off the baggage of the One China policy as it immediately contradicts our position on Taiwan should we try to make an issue of Tibet. I don't see India declaring both Tibet and Taiwan as disputed areas, that will only make a joke of us in the world strategic affairs space. Spratly islands is perhaps something we can explore, but it is so small an issue on the world stage that India's stand would amount to nothing.

More India sponsored pro-democracy movements in China is the need, I say!

[putnanja]

C Raja Mohan always seems to have great takleef when Indian actions and American intrests do not coincide.

Whether or not it is in Indian interest or not is never clear.

Yup, totally agree. C Raja Mohan has always pushed for greater Indo-American co-operation even when odds are against India.

There were other reports earlier that a few exercises with US were cancelled, not just this one. One reason was that India wanted to send US a message that it wasn't happy with the way Indian interests were being compromised by US.

[a_kumar]

I think the big issue preventing India from making Tibet an issue is that from 50's it has been a big subscriber to the One China policy which applies to both Tibet and Taiwan (Formosa of those days). I don't see how we can shed ourselves off the baggage of the One China policy as it immediately contradicts our position on Taiwan should we try to make an issue of Tibet. I don't see India declaring both Tibet and Taiwan as disputed areas, that will only make a joke of us in the world strategic affairs space. Spratly islands is perhaps something we can explore, but it is so small an issue on the world stage that India's stand would amount to nothing.

More India sponsored pro-democracy movements in China is the need, I say!

Well said.. any leverage one may have will have an "expiry date". Taiwan is well conditioned now and will likely merge with China in 10/20 years. Tibet already talks only of autonomy. When the "leverage" could be of any use, we were sleeping on the wheel and day-dreaming. Hell, even US/Europe have come around now, so India standing alone can't do squat.

IOW, Taiwan are pretty much dead issue and Tiber per se is yeilding too. Investing energy on these two issues 20 years later is a knee-jerk reaction that is no different than beating a dead horse. Having said that, India should keep the international media focused on these so as to not make it an easy walk for China.

However, the stick for this age is how "diversity is suppressed by Hans" (Tibet/Xinxiang/Cantonese) or how "will-of-people" (democracy) is the need for the day.

[kshirin]

We're missing the action, other countries are making up, we will be left out in the cold, I was watching Gurcharan Das on the Big Fight trying to say something sensible while all the uninformed hawks were gabbling. Why should we object if the Chinese build our infrastructure for example, and earn a better return than on their stuck US treasuries - they are ready to do it for Nepal Bangladesh everywere in fact including in India but we are only making jingoistic noises - I am all for patriotism but it sould be sensible and to some end - and we will look third world compared to these neighbouring countries of ours soon.
They dont want to invade us as long as Russian Siberia beckons. Someone told me the Chinese would never invade and overrun India, "too much squalor", come to think of it, you know they may be right. Look at our filthy cities, overcrowded and gridlocked. Why should anyone want to invade us? Sure, we should exercise checks here to ensure they don't end up cheating us, but remember they cheat their own people too, the earthquake destroyed many schools and little lives there too because of profiteering by their counstruction mafia.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 092076.cms
China, Japan plan group on EU linesANI 6 October 2009, 02:52am IST

BEIJING: In a move that is considered to send shock waves around the world, Japan and China have proposed a plan to create an “East Asian Community,” similar to the European Union, which could make a fierce force to reckon with and which would also improve economic and political relationships in the region.

The proposal is its initial stages and it could include visa-free travel, public health, energy and the environment. In the later stages of the proposal, it is being said that political issues and common policies on defence and agriculture would also play a major part.

The alliance could become a big force in future, as Japan is currently the second-largest economy in the world, while China is in third place. It is also said that India would also join the league.

According to reports, Japanese PM Yukio Hatoyama put the proposal to Chinese president Hu Jintao during their first meeting, in New York on September 21. The issue was again discussed during Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, in Shanghai last week.

Robert Dujarric, director of the Institute of Contemporary Studies in Japan, believes the two countries are looking for an alliance in order to improve its economic ties. Contrary to debates across the world, Dujarric also believes that there are benefits the West could reap from a closer relationship between Japan and the rest of Asia.

[Suraj]

The Sino-Japanese community idea would appear to benefit Japan more than it would benefit China. What's in it for the latter ? Further, one of the primary problems with the EU was the massive difference between the economic imperatives of newer (then) dynamic economies like Spain and the older ones like Germany. What sort of fiscal policy imperatives do Japan and China have in common ? This would appear to be more of a glorified FTA.

[ramana]

We're missing the action, other countries are making up, we will be left out in the cold, I was watching Gurcharan Das on the Big Fight trying to say something sensible while all the uninformed hawks were gabbling. Why should we object if the Chinese build our infrastructure for example, and earn a better return than on their stuck US treasuries - they are ready to do it for Nepal Bangladesh everywere in fact including in India but we are only making jingoistic noises - I am all for patriotism but it sould be sensible and to some end - and we will look third world compared to these neighbouring countries of ours soon.
They dont want to invade us as long as Russian Siberia beckons. Someone told me the Chinese would never invade and overrun India, "too much squalor", come to think of it, you know they may be right. Look at our filthy cities, overcrowded and gridlocked. Why should anyone want to invade us? Sure, we should exercise checks here to ensure they don't end up cheating us, but remember they cheat their own people too, the earthquake destroyed many schools and little lives there too because of profiteering by their counstruction mafia.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 092076.cms
China, Japan plan group on EU linesANI 6 October 2009, 02:52am IST

BEIJING: In a move that is considered to send shock waves around the world, Japan and China have proposed a plan to create an “East Asian Community,” similar to the European Union, which could make a fierce force to reckon with and which would also improve economic and political relationships in the region.

The proposal is its initial stages and it could include visa-free travel, public health, energy and the environment. In the later stages of the proposal, it is being said that political issues and common policies on defence and agriculture would also play a major part.

The alliance could become a big force in future, as Japan is currently the second-largest economy in the world, while China is in third place. It is also said that India would also join the league.

According to reports, Japanese PM Yukio Hatoyama put the proposal to Chinese president Hu Jintao during their first meeting, in New York on September 21. The issue was again discussed during Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, in Shanghai last week.

Robert Dujarric, director of the Institute of Contemporary Studies in Japan, believes the two countries are looking for an alliance in order to improve its economic ties. Contrary to debates across the world, Dujarric also believes that there are benefits the West could reap from a closer relationship between Japan and the rest of Asia.

This is the old WWII "Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" promoted by Imperial Japan with new partner. It will benefit Japan more than the Chinese. India should join this as it will also benefit. This is an all Asian sphere.

[svinayak]

This is the old WWII "Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" promoted by Imperial Japan with new partner. It will benefit Japan more than the Chinese. India should join this as it will also benefit. This is an all Asian sphere.

Wait for Unkil and other western nations to create wars between east asian nations to break it.

[Prem]

This is the old WWII "Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" promoted by Imperial Japan with new partner. It will benefit Japan more than the Chinese. India should join this as it will also benefit. This is an all Asian sphere.

Wait for Unkil and other western nations to create wars between east asian nations to break it.

If energy exporting countries of ME show sign of joining the group.

[svinayak]

If energy exporting countries of ME show sign of joining the group.

Does not matter

[VinodTK]

India plays down Chinese incursions

[Yogi_G]

I can bring as many events as much as possible.for that i need to buy some time.
As for Brfites,most of the incidents and coups that happened in the past few years were totally held under wraps and were made unknown to outsiders and media.
when I heard last time, the thoughts and the movement strength appeared to me that the communism wont last long and the democratization will occur in less than a decade.

I think we also need a campaign in parallel to spread the message that CPC is not really a Communist Party, in that it does not believe in the dictatorship of the proletariat, only in the dictatorship of a elite few. Not in the Socialist system but in aggressive merciless Capitalism. Not that communism has great virtues but the CPC continues to hide behind the veil of Communism which it hardly espouses. Sort of the Jinnah when it comes to Pork and Alcohol!

[Prasanth]

We're missing the action, other countries are making up, we will be left out in the cold, I was watching Gurcharan Das on the Big Fight trying to say something sensible while all the uninformed hawks were gabbling. Why should we object if the Chinese build our infrastructure for example, and earn a better return than on their stuck US treasuries - they are ready to do it for Nepal Bangladesh everywere in fact including in India but we are only making jingoistic noises - I am all for patriotism but it sould be sensible and to some end - and we will look third world compared to these neighbouring countries of ours soon.
They dont want to invade us as long as Russian Siberia beckons. Someone told me the Chinese would never invade and overrun India, "too much squalor", come to think of it, you know they may be right. Look at our filthy cities, overcrowded and gridlocked. Why should anyone want to invade us? Sure, we should exercise checks here to ensure they don't end up cheating us, but remember they cheat their own people too, the earthquake destroyed many schools and little lives there too because of profiteering by their counstruction mafia.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 092076.cms
China, Japan plan group on EU linesANI 6 October 2009, 02:52am IST

BEIJING: In a move that is considered to send shock waves around the world, Japan and China have proposed a plan to create an “East Asian Community,” similar to the European Union, which could make a fierce force to reckon with and which would also improve economic and political relationships in the region.

The proposal is its initial stages and it could include visa-free travel, public health, energy and the environment. In the later stages of the proposal, it is being said that political issues and common policies on defence and agriculture would also play a major part.

The alliance could become a big force in future, as Japan is currently the second-largest economy in the world, while China is in third place. It is also said that India would also join the league.

According to reports, Japanese PM Yukio Hatoyama put the proposal to Chinese president Hu Jintao during their first meeting, in New York on September 21. The issue was again discussed during Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, in Shanghai last week.

Robert Dujarric, director of the Institute of Contemporary Studies in Japan, believes the two countries are looking for an alliance in order to improve its economic ties. Contrary to debates across the world, Dujarric also believes that there are benefits the West could reap from a closer relationship between Japan and the rest of Asia.

This is the old WWII "Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" promoted by Imperial Japan with new partner. It will benefit Japan more than the Chinese. India should join this as it will also benefit. This is an all Asian sphere.

You sure they will let us brown macacas join? I rather have an all indic bloc comprising of Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and de-islamized Bangla or maybe demilitarized Paki. You have no idea how racist these Orientals are. I had long foresee Korea, Japan, Mongolia, China, Taiwan, HK, Singapore and maybe Vietnam forming a sinic bloc. If they ever do combine, it will be a big threat to us all....

[Avinash R]

Why should we object if the Chinese build our infrastructure for example,

Reason #1

Chhattisgarh police question Chinese engineers in Balco mishap
IANS 7 October 2009, 01:11pm IST
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 096836.cms

RAIPUR: Chhattisgarh police have interrogated several Chinese engineers employed by Shandong Electric Power Construction Corporation (SEPCO) at Korba town to probe the Sep 23 collapse of an under-construction power plant chimney that killed 45 workers.

"We have interrogated a few Chinese engineers of SEPCO since Monday regarding the Balco tragedy and have also collected some documents," Vivek Sharma, police station in charge of Balco Nagar in Korba, said.
...
Now that there are vacancy due to the deaths, people supporting chinese investment may apply for the jobs. And dont forget to write you will. The chinese would be elated to employ a person who is of the same mentality.

Someone told me the Chinese would never invade and overrun India, "too much squalor", come to think of it, you know they may be right.

Look at our filthy cities, overcrowded and gridlocked. Why should anyone want to invade us?.

Would the mods mind deleting this rubbish or should i respond in kind pointing out the rubbish that fills some self-appointed intellectuals mind.

[SSridhar]

Let's understand what India is up against, its own Chinese-leaning media. The following from Frontline, China Bogey, says it all

The Indian military establishment has been crying hoarse for some time about the growing Chinese military threat. Every move by China in the region is being viewed with suspicion. Chinese help for the upgradation of ports in Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka has been interpreted as moves to encircle India with a “string of pearls”.

Another controversy generated by the Indian media with some help from the officialdom was in connection with China’s attempt to block an Asian Development Bank (ADB) loan of $2.9 billion to India. The loan included funding for a $60 million water management plan for Arunachal Pradesh. The Chinese objections related to the loan component for Arunachal Pradesh, a “disputed territory”.

India managed to obtain the loan after a vote in the ADB board. As China continues to lay claim on the State it routinely takes measures to maintain the legality of its claim at the negotiating table.{Can't this be termed seditious ?}

The Tibet issue has been a major irritant in bilateral ties. China has been accusing India of giving a platform for the “splittist” Dalai Lama. The anti-China protests staged by Tibetan activists in the run-up to the Beijing Olympics had gone out of hand, causing embarrassment to the Indian government and anger in Beijing. After the serious riots in Lhasa earlier in the year, Chinese public opinion, according to reports in the Western media, has been highly critical of the Dalai Lama and those states supporting his activities.{Why can't this John Cherian guy turn around and talk about Indian anger at the Chinese support and proliferation to jihadi-terrorist-sponsoring Pakistan ?}

[Arihant]

I think the big issue preventing India from making Tibet an issue is that from 50's it has been a big subscriber to the One China policy which applies to both Tibet and Taiwan (Formosa of those days). I don't see how we can shed ourselves off the baggage of the One China policy as it immediately contradicts our position on Taiwan should we try to make an issue of Tibet. I don't see India declaring both Tibet and Taiwan as disputed areas, that will only make a joke of us in the world strategic affairs space. Spratly islands is perhaps something we can explore, but it is so small an issue on the world stage that India's stand would amount to nothing.

More India sponsored pro-democracy movements in China is the need, I say!

Well said.. any leverage one may have will have an "expiry date". Taiwan is well conditioned now and will likely merge with China in 10/20 years. Tibet already talks only of autonomy. When the "leverage" could be of any use, we were sleeping on the wheel and day-dreaming. Hell, even US/Europe have come around now, so India standing alone can't do squat.

IOW, Taiwan are pretty much dead issue and Tiber per se is yeilding too. Investing energy on these two issues 20 years later is a knee-jerk reaction that is no different than beating a dead horse. Having said that, India should keep the international media focused on these so as to not make it an easy walk for China.

However, the stick for this age is how "diversity is suppressed by Hans" (Tibet/Xinxiang/Cantonese) or how "will-of-people" (democracy) is the need for the day.

I've said this before on this forum, but I'll say it again. We're wrong in writing off Taiwan as a lost cause. I know Taiwan relatively well and am a frequent visitor. First, we need to understand Taiwan's demographics, which explodes the myth that they are "basically Chinese". (To see where the figures appearing below come from, look up any number of online resources on Taiwanese demographics and history - I've put up some of these links before). About 80% of Taiwan's population is classified as Hoklo or "Taiwanese" (the remainder is made up of Aborigines and post-1949 Chinese - also referred to as "Wai Sheng Ren"). About 80% of the Hoklo are of mixed Han Chinese and Aboriginal Taiwanese ancestry (I'll come to the reason for this shortly). So about 70% (if you also include the "pure" Aboriginal population) of Taiwan's population is not Han Chinese.

The historical roots for the mixed ancestry of Taiwan's Hoklo population is as follows: Han Chinese have trickled into Taiwan from southern China for about 500 years, but the outbound emigration was restricted to males under various Chinese regimes. Part of this had to do with an earlier historical episode that presaged what happened to Chiang Kai Shek and the KMT. When the (Manchurian) Qing dynasty replaced the Ming dynasty, a Ming dynasty loyalist by the name of Cheng Cheng-Kung (also called Koxinga, born in Japan to a Han Chinese father and a Japanese mother), fought the Qing, lost, invaded Taiwan, defeated the Dutch (who then controlled coastal Taiwan - most of the interior remained independent Aboriginal territory until post-1892 Japanese rule) and set up a kingdom that lasted 2- 3 decades. Following, and preceding this, coastal Taiwan was variously ruled by the British and Portuguese, and for a period of about 3 decades in the 1800s by the Chinese Qing dynasty (recently manufactured Chinese history would have us believe that there was several centuries of unbroken Chinese control).

A large proportion of Taiwan's population is committed to de jure independence. Even in the last election (disastrous for the pro-independence DPP party) - the DPP received close to 50% of the vote. Various opinion polls over the last few years have returned interesting figures - less than 10% favour submission to China. The remainder span the spectrum from supporting the status quo (de-facto independence) to supporting the de jure independence that the DPP espouses.

Having extensively travelled in both China and Taiwan, I find the cultural differences stark. Mandarin is spoken in both countries (and I speak some), but with very different accents. I have sought explanations for the these cultural differences from Taiwanese intellectuals, and what I can surmise is the following. Current Taiwanese culture is largely a reflection of the Taiwanese elite nurtured by the Japanese during their 53-year colonial administration (which curiously is viewed quite positively by the Taiwanese, in stark contrast to, say, Korea). The cultural similarities between China and Taiwan, are, to some extent superficial. Like the UK and US, they are joined by a shared language, but not much else.

The current government in Taiwan appear to be seeking favours from Beijing, and are in the process of rolling back Taiwan's hard-won liberty and democracy. A large section of Taiwan's elite is actively opposed to this. Many are discouraged, because they see no alternative to China's dark, looming presence.

It is for India to offer that alternative, and to promote and support Taiwan's democracy, possibly in a low-key fashion (as it has successfully done elsewhere). This does not necessarily mean openly offering recognition - there are many nuanced steps that we can take before we consider that option.

[ramana]

PRC's main claim on Taiwan is the KMT govt taking shelter there. With the gradual diminishing of the KMT political presence this claim will get reduced.

I know many native Taiwanese who resent the mainlanders.

[brihaspati]

Ironically it is the KMT party group that is now rooting for pro-PRC stance. The recent elections gave them greater power and removed the anti-PRc group from power.

[Suppiah]

It is interesting to note how Stalinist mass murderers/rapist goons and their yellow propagandists always paint the Indian side as wrong and have to 'mollify' their paymasters all the time for their mistakes, while commies are always right. But they never mention about commie supply nukes to Pakbarians. Our battle is not with the Chinese people, perhaps not even with the Chinese commies, it is with the traitors in our midst and their anti-Indian agendas

[a_kumar]

The current government in Taiwan appear to be seeking favours from Beijing, and are in the process of rolling back Taiwan's hard-won liberty and democracy. A large section of Taiwan's elite is actively opposed to this. Many are discouraged, because they see no alternative to China's dark, looming presence.

It is for India to offer that alternative, and to promote and support Taiwan's democracy, possibly in a low-key fashion (as it has successfully done elsewhere). This does not necessarily mean openly offering recognition - there are many nuanced steps that we can take before we consider that option.

Arihant, Thanks for the nice summary earlier.

Highlighted above is precisely what am talking about.

Lets looks at the trajectory so far here..

1949 : Republic of China (ROC) flees to island of Taiwan following the civil war. Sets up Government and retains the UN membership as well as the Veto power for all of China.
1960's : Nations friendly to People's Republic of China (PRC) start a campaign to recognize PRC and not ROC as legitimate government of China.
1971 : In light of Nixon's changing priorities, PRC gains enough UN votes to snatch the baton from ROC. Since it was a question of credentials, the issue does not go to Permanent members, so ROC could not use the Veto it technically had. ROC looses UN membership and Veto. (Quite Dramatic)
1971-1991 : ROC Continues to claim to be sole legitimate government of China
1991 : ROC shifts its UN stance. Requests membership representing the people of Taiwan, which China actively opposes.
1990's : PRC tries to pluck away the remaining supporters of ROC (Around 30 at that time) with inducements of aid. PRC-ROC compete to lure the states. However, PRC's fortunes change. With increasing clout (economic and political) of China, Taiwan enters uncertain stage.
2001 : PRC and ROC enter WTO back to back and see huge growth in trade.
2004-2007 : PRC snatches 6 states (20%) from Taiwan's camp with promise of aid and other help.
2007 : PRC becomes the largest trading partner of Taiwan (amounting to 30%). Taiwanese investors invested close to 150$ Billion.
2008 : Direct flights start after more than 5 decades of ban imposed by Taiwan
2009 : Taiwan allows direct investments from mainland.
2009 : After 17 years, Taiwan for the first time drops it campaign to reenter UN in light of "friendly" relations with PRC

Once ROC lost the UN Veto to PRC, Taiwan already lost. In all the 6 decades of its existence, Taiwan was supported and prodded by US. Now that US is pleading China and Japan is itching to get into PRC's camp, their support will not be the unwavering kind it used to be. So Taiwan is wise to warm up to the new world. Nobody is saying it yet, but I think its as good as abandoned.

The trajectory above could lead to a war of attrition that Taiwan just cannot win. Every day Taiwan "cannot win", PRC wins. For India, it doesn't seem like there was ever enough meat to it, but it could have been good leverage to barter for something. Like I said earlier, '"any leveage" India could have had, expired. Infact, to me it seems like even US now considers Taiwan as leverage.

If it matters, Vatican already called Taiwan (the believers!) expendable!!

Lastly, in my interaction with Taiwanese.. the older generation look at this in black-white and most of them oppose the reunification. Wonder how long they will fight. Younger generation really don't care. The few folks I know maintain a neutral tone. It almost feels like they don't want to rub PRC wrong way and loose any chances of making money in PRC's rising economy.

I am not saying its going to be smooth, but just that Taiwan cannot fight for long while China is working on softening the blow!

Added Later : Having said above, if there is anything India can do to *not* make it easy for China (while staying under the radar), then India should very well take that approach. Its just that I doubt there is much India can do at this time.

[Juggi G]

To China's delight, India reins in its Media
Brahma Chellaney

[vera_k]

If it matters, Vatican already called Taiwan (the believers!) expendable!!

A while ago, I read a column by a prominent American Christian figure who said that China soon will be the second largest Christian nation in the world with 100 million believers. The Vatican's decision may have been influenced by this, because in that case, Taiwan truly would not matter for their mission.

[Arihant]

The current government in Taiwan appear to be seeking favours from Beijing, and are in the process of rolling back Taiwan's hard-won liberty and democracy. A large section of Taiwan's elite is actively opposed to this. Many are discouraged, because they see no alternative to China's dark, looming presence.

It is for India to offer that alternative, and to promote and support Taiwan's democracy, possibly in a low-key fashion (as it has successfully done elsewhere). This does not necessarily mean openly offering recognition - there are many nuanced steps that we can take before we consider that option.

Arihant, Thanks for the nice summary earlier.

Highlighted above is precisely what am talking about.

Once ROC lost the UN Veto to PRC, Taiwan already lost. In all the 6 decades of its existence, Taiwan was supported and prodded by US. Now that US is pleading China and Japan is itching to get into PRC's camp, their support will not be the unwavering kind it used to be. So Taiwan is wise to warm up to the new world. Nobody is saying it yet, but I think its as good as abandoned.

The trajectory above could lead to a war of attrition that Taiwan just cannot win. Every day Taiwan "cannot win", PRC wins. For India, it doesn't seem like there was ever enough meat to it, but it could have been good leverage to barter for something. Like I said earlier, '"any leveage" India could have had, expired. Infact, to me it seems like even US now considers Taiwan as leverage.

If it matters, Vatican already called Taiwan (the believers!) expendable!!

Lastly, in my interaction with Taiwanese.. the older generation look at this in black-white and most of them oppose the reunification. Wonder how long they will fight. Younger generation really don't care. The few folks I know maintain a neutral tone. It almost feels like they don't want to rub PRC wrong way and loose any chances of making money in PRC's rising economy.

I am not saying its going to be smooth, but just that Taiwan cannot fight for long while China is working on softening the blow!

Added Later : Having said above, if there is anything India can do to *not* make it easy for China (while staying under the radar), then India should very well take that approach. Its just that I doubt there is much India can do at this time.

a_kumar, you have succintly captured the "doomsday logic" that many Taiwanese now feel compelled to subscribe to. History, however, points to many instances where what might have appeared to be a "historic inevitability" turned out to be not so inevitable after all.

For starters, the current "inevitable rise" discourse on China sounds a lot like the 1930's discourse on the inevitable dominance of Nazi Germany. By the late-1930s and early 1940s, many political equations were being reformulated to accommodate this. Didn't last long. It also appears as if the Chinese, both individually and at a national level, are starting to strut on the world stage much like the Nazis in the 1930s. Like the Nazis, there is a uber-nationalistic mission to redress a whole set of perceived (or manufactured) historical grievances at a racial/national level. I have had Chinese academics tell me that they will not forget the destruction of the Summer Palace in Beijing by Indian soldiers (that incredible comment only made sese when I realized that the British Indian Army had indeed been deployed to quell the Boxer Rebellion around 1901, and had indeed operated in the Summer Palace). I have seen whole sections of the Chinese Academy of Sciences - academicians, lesser professors, post-docs and PhD students in tow - take days off to go and commemorate the Marco Polo Bridge Incident (part of a much broader canvas of historical grievances against Japan). I've tried to visualize whole CSIR labs marching off to commemorate Jalianwalla Bagh, but can't get myself to imagine how that would look like.

Second, there is an interesting pattern in Chinese history - it is characterized by rapid discontinuities, almost step changes. When things improve, they do so rapidly, but when they fall apart, that too happens overnight (the graph of Indian history is characterized by much gentler curves). There are many who think that there is another such discontinuity on the horizon for China (and much of the discussion on this forum has alluded to it). East Timor is an example of how a relatively brief period of national upheaval (in Indonesia) sets up the "objective conditions" for secession.

For the Taiwanese, the strategy would be to survive, maintain the status quo and bide their time. India could help.

[Arihant]

An NYTimes article on Taiwan's survival strategy

[Arihant]

Arihant:

i think the pattern you are alluding to is that China goes through cycles of opening up and then closing down. this has happened many times in Chinese history. every time they open up, they grow rapidly, and then shut down as rapidly as they opened up. i'm not sure this cycle will be so extreme in the coming decades, but you never know. but what is inevitable is that this cycle will play its natural course again and there will be a significant to massive correction. whether another Mao comes up and closes China is something that only history will tell a few decades from now.

prad: I was referring to a "good times" - "bad times" cycle, but yes, it sometimes correlates to an "opening up" - "battening the hatches" cycle.

We need to counter this "inveitable rise" discourse, because the Chinese are staying "on message", and creating a truism via repeated assertion.

[a_kumar]

A while ago, I read a column by a prominent American Christian figure who said that China soon will be the second largest Christian nation in the world with 100 million believers. The Vatican's decision may have been influenced by this, because in that case, Taiwan truly would not matter for their mission.

Yeah.. There were three distinct events that left the Vatican and its army salivating in past couple of decades.

1. Opening up of Russia was a pretty big event. They suddenly saw a massive opportunity to increase their base and they subsequently did well.

2. India was a tough nut. There were few restrictions to start with, but there just wasn't enough penetration of pagans until 90's. But liberalization has changed everything with respect to how their $$ found alternate routes. They saw a swell in their ranks just as they planned.

3. With respect to China, Holy See had relations with ROC since 49. They now find mainland insanely juicy and are going crazy over it. (IOW, coveting the new market). Recent disagreement was over who appoints Bishops: Vatican wants Pope to be the only head with power to appoint Bishops, and PRC wants itself to appoint the bishops.
Typically, PRC had to work to lure wavering countries towards Beijing, strangely, it is the other way around with Vatican. It is Vatican that desperately wants to break into China and will give them anything from human-rights tickets to wider recognition in exchange.

It is highly suspect, how much PRC will allow a non-communist ideology to get any reasonable traction, but it will use any small concession to wriggle considerable returns. Vatican has a "mature" market in Taiwan with not much growth. So it wants entry into the virgin markets of China. Taiwanese nationalism is the scapegoat.

[sanjaykumar]

Unfortunately, the economic tectonics are such that the west with its hard currencies as well as gods are at a discount. Indians are not above aping their superiors, will they ape their equals?

[a_kumar]

Second, there is an interesting pattern in Chinese history - it is characterized by rapid discontinuities, almost step changes. When things improve, they do so rapidly, but when they fall apart, that too happens overnight (the graph of Indian history is characterized by much gentler curves). There are many who think that there is another such discontinuity on the horizon for China (and much of the discussion on this forum has alluded to it).

I cannot argue against this theory.

All am saying is, if anything happens it can only happen inside-out. Hence the factors of "Suppression of diversity(Tibet/Xinxiang/Cantonese)" & "will-of-people (democracy)".

[Hari Seldon]

Unfortunately, the economic tectonics are such that the west with its hard currencies as well as gods are at a discount. Indians are not above aping their superiors, will they ape their equals?

Only since about a year, really.

And already they are covering their backsides with borrowed cloth again. Not for long, perhaps, the law of unintended consequences is banally brutal sometimes.

[VinodTK]

To China's delight, India reins in its media

[putnanja]

Coping with rising China - K. Subrahmanyam

...
India has to learn to cope with this challenge without getting hysterical. Nor should it hamper in any way the growing trade relations between the two countries. There is, in fact, a good case to develop mutual dependencies in a globalised world, with due care to ensure that the dependency does not become unfavourably one-sided against our interest. The most effective way of doing it is to step up our economic growth to 10 per cent by exploiting all available favourable factors in the international economic and political system, as China is doing; develop rapidly our border infrastructure; augment our military capability without delays; and attempt to develop stakes for all major powers in our growth and security.

While doing all this, there is no need to indulge in jingoistic rhetoric. There can be firmness in dealing with the LoAC or other issues where there are attempts at exploiting unequal advantages in situations. India has arrived at a stage in international politics when it has to demonstrate maturity in playing the game of nations.
...

[ramana]

Tomorrow is 10/10 day for China which celebrates the Sun Yat Sun revolution that overthrew the monarchy.

[Avinash R]

No Chinese, please: Delhi speaks payback language
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1091007/j ... 585564.jsp

[VinodTK]

China's double face: It supported Lashkar to hurt India, now wants to fight al Qaeda