Re: Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan - Jan 04, 2014
Posted: 01 Mar 2014 11:15
From NightWatch for the night of 27 Feb 2014
Pakistan: Pakistani news services reported that the security forces are poised to launch a full-scale offensive in North Waziristan Agency (NWA) if talks with the Pakistani Taliban fail. An unidentified senior government official said reinforcements would not have to be sent into the area because the troops already are deployed there and only would have to be repositioned for what he said would be a "very visible operation." Comment: The government suspended peace talks after a Pakistani Taliban faction detonated a bomb in Karachi that killed 12 police officers last week and another group announced it had executed 23 paramilitary soldiers who were kidnapped in June 2010. In the past week, Pakistan Air Force combat aircraft have attacked targets in Waziristan, in an apparent warning of additional military operations unless the Pakistani Taliban attacks stop and negotiates in good faith. Large, visible punitive operations in the tribal agencies have had little success for many reasons. A key one is that they always must rely on local paramilitary forces for intelligence and combat support. That dependency invariably defeats operational security, undermines effectiveness and limits success. The paramilitary forces are recruited from and live in the agency so they have little incentive to cooperate in operations against their own tribe or neighbors. A big military show that stalled would embolden the Pakistani Taliban and ensure no resumption of talks. The environment for peace talks also is more complex than ever because every security development in Pakistan is influenced by the drawdown of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan this year. That will be another watershed event in South Asia. For example, this is the last opportunity Pakistan will have to improve security conditions in the tribal agencies in the northwest while American forces are still capable of lending support. For the Pakistani Taliban, the drawdown of NATO forces portends a cutoff of pilfered supplies. That is an incentive to engage in talks to stall for time and build up stocks. Attacks during talks signal that negotiations with the government are not a sign of weakness. That message explains the targeting of government security personnel. The Karachi attack demonstrates that the Pakistani Taliban have support and are capable of attacking outside the tribal agencies.