Bharat Rakshak

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 03:25**

^^ Yes. He was a noble prize winner in Astrophysics

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 03:26**

The very good-looking InfoWar reporter mohterma pointed out rather devastatingly that even when SlickWillie's speech was free, only about 15 people including the security and the organizers, showed up. So the slight doubt remains WHY that $0.5M was "paid" per speech - wasn't that sheer money-laundering of bribes? Do we know of anyone else who gets $0.5M per speech as speaking fees, - not fundraising for a foundation per se?
- Miss Universe?
- Miss Pakistan?
- Miss America?
- Kareem Abdul Jabbar?
- Apple CEO?
- Elon Musk?
- Nobel Prize Winner in Physics?
- Nobel Winner in Literature?
- Sachin Tendulkar?
- Mandira Bedi?
- Ted Turner?
- M.S. Dhoni?
- Wells-Fargo CEO Stumpkopf?
- Jeffrey Dahmer?

Might be worth checking....

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 03:35**

That sinking feeling: Clinton has LOST her lock on the 270 electoral college votes needed for victory as Ohio, Utah and part of Maine move to Trump

Hillary Clinton has dropped below the threshold of 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency, according to CNN's forecasts
Battlegrounds Ohio and Utah have shifted towards Trump, as has the second congressional district of Maine, the broadcaster said
New Hampshire has also inched away from leaning Democrat and is now classified as a battleground
Clinton can now rely on 268 electoral votes - still far ahead of Trump's 204 She only needs one more swing state to win but Trump needs all of them
ABC News, FiveThirtyEight and the UVA Center for Politics all estimate that Trump won't make 270

Hillary Clinton has dropped below the threshold of 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency, according to CNN's forecasts on Friday, as formerly battleground states shift towards Donald Trump.

A shift to Trump in Ohio, Utah and the second congressional district of Maine has undercut the number of electoral college votes which the Democrat can count on, the broadcaster said.

Utah only became a 'battleground' in late October as Clinton gained ground on Trump.

CNN said that New Hampshire has now inched away from leaning Democrat and is now classified as a battleground.

Clinton can now count on 268 electoral college votes - still significantly ahead of Trump at 204. Either candidate needs 270 - the majority of the 538 votes available -to win.

With just four days to go, the presidential race has tightened in Trump's favor as Clinton wrestles with the aftermath of the FBI's shock revelation that it would be investigating emails belonging to Huma Abedin in relation to its probe of Clinton's use of a private email server.

The emails were found on devices belonging to Abedin's estranged husband Anthony Weiner.

Despite Clinton's weaker showing she is still in a better position than Trump. There are six battleground states to play for, accounting for 66 electoral votes between them: Arizona, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina, plus a second congressional district in and around Omaha, Nebraska.

Clinton would only need to win one of those states for victory, whereas Trump needs to sweep all of them in order to claim the presidency.

Maine and Nebraska allot electoral votes by a system of proportional representation rather than the winner-takes-all approach based on simple majority which is favored by the other states. That means both candidates could get college votes from within those two states.

CNN's forecast takes into account current polls, reporting and campaign advertisement decisions among other factors.

More than 30 million votes have already been cast across 38 states.

Electoral college vote predictions vary by forecaster. 270ToWin calculates Clinton has 272 votes to Trump's 173, leaving 93 votes to fight over.

ABC News says Clinton could nab 278 votes, leaving Trump with just 198 - meaning even if the Republican took all 62 battleground votes remaining he would still be 10 votes short of the presidency.

And the UVA Center for Politics' calculations on Thursday were similarly bleak for Trump, forecasting he will win 214 states to Clinton's 293, with 31 toss-up votes.

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog predicts Clinton will win 298 votes to Trump's 240, when assumptions are made about which way the battlegrounds will swing.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... z4PArQTMmF

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 03:51**

Manish_Sharma wrote:That sinking feeling: Clinton has LOST her lock on the 270 electoral college votes needed for victory as Ohio, Utah and part of Maine move to Trump

Close to 40 Million folks have already voted. Regardless, look at swing-state polling but more importantly Early Voting data that is officially released by the states. More than 50% of registered voters in NV, FL and probably NC have already voted. Florida number is actually going to be well above 60%, while NV will probably match its 2012 number of 69% if around 75-80% of those eligible end up voting early or on the day of. NC EV numbers are also significant. Whenever you look at polls that capture data from early November, through Monday consider that folks are already voting and doing so at record numbers across a lot of the critical swing-states. Once you have a critical mass of people already voted it takes a lot of momentum shift to make a difference. A one, two or even three percent swing isn't going to help much if more than half of folks that end up casting their ballot in the state voted days if not weeks earlier.

Five states - NV, FL, NC, PA and MI. Trump practically needs to win all five and is not clearly leading in any one. HRC needs to win at the most 2 and make it mathematically nearly impossible (if not outright impossible) for Trump. If she wins FL she doesn't even need to any other. NV for all practical purposes is out of contention for Trump given Clark County EV unless he can drive total voter turnout closer to 90-95% (unheard of numbers) on just Tuesday because early voting ended there last night. More than a million more people would have voted early in Florida than 4 years ago. We also know that as of Friday the EV diversity has grown and Whites are at or below their EV percentage compared to 2012. Hispanic turnout is at record numbers there. There is probably a slight Democratic edge going in there but Trump needs to drive huge numbers on ED to win it. Ohio is now only a MUST WIN for one candidate.

There are only two states on that list that vote just on election day, PA and MI. Both campaigns will over the weekend and through Monday committee massive resources there. The Clinton's and Obama's are doing a large event on to close the campaign and Trump will probably be sending his surrogates there to close things out. Ohio, Maine or Utah don't really matter in the larger sense - They only matter (Ohio and Utah) if Trump looses one.

Utah is a DEEP RED state, it speaks volumes if we are still talking about it 3 days out..

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 04:32**

Chances of Trump winning all battleground and NH and Maine(CD2) and something like PA or MI are very very very low.

Here is what is in store for you all...

5. Darren informs John Podesta after positive response from India PMO. He says he "CAJOLED Modi's government.

Wh|sperer ‏@Synusthesia 16h16 hours ago
4.John Podesta emails to Jaishankar's personal email and they exchange telephone numbers

Wh|sperer ‏@Synusthesia 16h16 hours ago
2. US ambassador is using private emails & updating to John Podesta about what's going on in India

Wh|sperer ‏@Synusthesia 16h16 hours ago
1.Clinton's Podesta has direct private access to contact senior bureaucrats at Indian PMO and are they influencing Indian government?

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 04:38**

brar_w wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:That sinking feeling: Clinton has LOST her lock on the 270 electoral college votes needed for victory as Ohio, Utah and part of Maine move to Trump
Close to 40 Million folks have already voted. .....

Utah is a DEEP RED state, it speaks volumes if we are still talking about it 3 days out..

Brar warrior you are so cruel....

You won't even let me enjoy a little dim light of hope.

Ok I accept the 'Sith' has won, "....failed I have..." Master Yoda will say on 8th and move to far away planet.

Time for evangelists and porkis to celebrate !!!

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 04:58**

This article from fortune throws some light on how much money ex politicians and presidents are raking as speaking fee. HIghest Clinton got paid was $750,000 from Erickson, Hong Kong.

Unquestionably Slick Willie is the best speaker of them all.

Speech inflation: Why Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and others get massive speaking fees

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 05:06**

vijayk wrote:Chances of Trump winning all battleground and NH and Maine(CD2) and something like PA or MI are very very very low.

Here is what is in store for you all...

DT will win: PA, MI, NC, CO, and NV. FL and OH are in the bag.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 05:20**

Mort Walker wrote:
vijayk wrote:Chances of Trump winning all battleground and NH and Maine(CD2) and something like PA or MI are very very very low.

Here is what is in store for you all...

DT will win: PA, MI, NC, CO, and NV. FL and OH are in the bag.

Don't forget NY and CA

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 05:37**

brar_w wrote: Don't forget NY and CA

That's right. It's gonna be a repeat of 1972.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 05:45**

As the election nears, Trump supporters are being attacked.

Anti Trump Violence Growing

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 05:56**

Michigan and PA should be in the bag for Killary, but apparently not....

Hillary Clinton Looks to Bolster Support in Michigan With Monday Visit

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 06:03**

Last minute campaigning for the most part isn't about winning over undecided or those supporting other candidates in order to improve your poll numbers (unless that is something that you MUST do or else...). If winning over votes from the other side was the main focus, she would be investing a lot of time in Arizona, Georgia and Utah (chipping away for McMullen to win) - States where she is demonstrably behind in RCP averages.

The last week of campaigning however is about GOTV and getting all those that are likely to vote for you out in strategically important states. The reason why MI is important given the map and the timing is because it does not vote early for the most part. Had Trump been 3% up going into the weekend, he too would have still been campaigning there. Same with PA. It too votes just on ED for the most part.

That is why Trump has been in all the states which you think he will win. If he's winning those, why is he wasting his time there? Going to MI, PA and NC is excellent allocation of resources for her. If she wins any two, she makes it nearly impossible for him. Similarly, Trump needs to go there since he cannot win without winning over states where she has led post nomination. He still looses if he wins FL and OH and does not flip other states as well.

Trump's team has actually done a great job in getting him to the places where he has actually gone too for the most part. At par with HRC. She shouldn't have been in OH (unless their internals point to something else) yesterday and should not be there tomorrow and similarly he is wasting time in Reno and would have had he not cancelled his rally in WI. But for the most part, both are trying to do what they really should given what each needs to win. Its just that she needs to do very little to go over 270 if not 300 and he needs to pretty much win every toss-up state, hope there are no surprises in GOP-leaning states and then try to flip a solid blue state. Unfortunately his path further narrowed with EV data from NV and NC and it also does not look the best in FL given the 200,000 increase in Hispanic EV, compared to 2012 which was a record year for that state.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 06:20**

^^^Uh...no. DT has visited states which are close in the last few days unlike HRC. He needs to ensure a blow out in FL since the D's will rig the system there.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 06:25**

DT has visited states which are close in the last few days unlike HRC.

They both have crisscrossed practically all of the swing states as well as states of strategic importance to them. The only bad decisions I see are Ohio for her (she should have spent those 2 campaign events in PA) and NV for him. The rest has actually been a very good allocation of campaign resource and time. Same with surrogates.

The last minute strategy is to focus on voter-turnout particularly in states that vote early and do so in droves. Both FL and NV would have had 60+% of their votes cast prior to Nov. 8 and %age would be high in NC as well. MI and PA are no EV states so they will almost have to consume a lot of campaign time and resources for both. But for very different reasons. She has to get her supporters out and hold on to the lead most polls point to, he has to GOTV and cover ground based on the last many polls.

Moving a state at the last minute is hard (leave aside moving half a dozen) since the electorate is highly polarized and has seen both these unpopular candidates for a year and a half. You don't want to get at moving states at this time unless that is something you almost HAVE to do to stand a chance. This is the reason why she is not in Georgia, Arizona, Texas or even Utah or other states where she is behind. All she has to do is BLOCK and GOTV since the electoral map is in her favor. Conway would have been making him do the same had the position been reversed.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 07:15**

My 6th cousin thrice removed, Abdul, lives in a place that is 5 miles down the road from local KKK Headquarters. His whole subdivision ("Housing colony" to desh-based desis) is in a Deep Red district. The district is in a Deep Red state where HiC was given a 9% chance of winning to DT's 91%. He works in a department which is a bit to the right of the T-Party in terms of colleagues and yaks, but far to the left of Mao in the Upper Mgmt tiers.

He says he would not dare to express the fact that he is not a HiCFan. Won't dare to put on a bumper sticker. At the workplace, no way is he expressing any political views. Such is the fear due to rampant HiCfan Bolshevism.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 07:41**

US election: Donald Trump rushed off stage mid-speech by Secret Service following 'incident'
Law enforcement officials 'received reports a gun was in the crowd'

The Republican nominee returned to the stage several minutes later to loud cheers from supporters. He told the crowd: "Nobody said it was going to be easy for us, but we will never be stopped- never ever be stopped.
"I want to thank the Secret Service. They don't get enough credit. They're amazing people."
Mr Trump then continued his speech. He returned to the topic of Obamacare as well as military personnel and veterans. Referring to the incident, he told the crowd: "You see those medal of honour recipients? When they saw that scene over there, they would have brushed off the Secret Service and they would have jumped in there." He then gesticulated a fist fight.
A CNN journalist said a law enforcement source relayed they had received a report that a gun was in the crowd and a suspect is now in custody.
Eye witnesses reported seeing an individual escorted out of the venue by agents.
Armed police in military attire flooded the venue soon after.
A video posted to social media show police among members who the crowd, who appear shocked.

My question: They found a Trump crowd (i.e., more than 1 person) in RENO, Nevada, WITHOUT guns? What has this nation come to?

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 07:52**

Newsflash! TRUMP VIDEOTAPED GRABBING AND KISSING MAN

But amid promises to build a wall along the southern border and a vow to take on the Islamic State, Mr. Trump showed that even he had a soft spot when it came to babies.
“Oh, look, a future construction worker,” Mr. Trump said, pointing to an infant in the crowd. “Look, look at that baby. He’s so cute. Oh, give me that.” Mr. Trump carried the baby to his lectern. Then he raised the child high and kissed both cheeks.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 07:52**

brar_w wrote: They both have crisscrossed practically all of the swing states as well as states of strategic importance to them. The only bad decisions I see are Ohio for her (she should have spent those 2 campaign events in PA) and NV for him. The rest has actually been a very good allocation of campaign resource and time. Same with surrogates.

HRC is having to pander to the African American community in places like PA and MI. With people like Jay-Z shouting profanities at a half-empty HRC rally. Then HRC eating soul food and drinking like a lush at bars in predominantly African American neighborhoods. She thinks they'll support her just like Ombaba? Does she really take AAs as fools? In places like PA the AA vote is around 10-12% for DT, Mitt Romney got about 5-6% in 2012. HRC is a prime example of say anything do anything to win her seat in the Oval Office.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 08:33**

There are 212 Million voters registered for this election.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 09:40**

" US Empire' Will 'Attack Countries' to Maintain Economy, Under Clinton or Trump "

https://sputniknews.com/politics/201611 ... ton-trump/

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 10:10**

It seems that person posted on FB or something like that saying that he will shoot DT as per one report. Too much noise. CNN and others are saying how dark this election has been. Who made it dark is the question. Had the left just said DT is a joke and left it like that there would have been no dark things. People would have viewed DT as a joker. Most of the HC voters see him as some Sith Lord. That on the other side see him as Luke Skywalker who will bring balance to the force.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 12:04**

i see that brilliant analysis continues to flow in this thread...

i'll come back here after the 8th to say 'i told you'

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 12:17**

Rudradev wrote:
HKumar wrote:
you did say this , no , ji ?

Quite right. A US citizen by birth isn't half (or 1/n) a citizen of any other country. Still confused?

I think the argument is about descent. Not citizenship. If we are talking descent, then surely she has some Indian descent from both father and to some extent her mother as well. Indian heritage may be questionable because of upbringing and KSA and Islamic issues etc.

But still, US citizens by birth can be citizens of other countries where they allow dual citizenship no?

Come on Saar, you are way sharper than this..

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 13:32**

Just as ppl kept looking for the sole surviving sith in the wrong places ie DT while darth sidious aka palpatine was the high ranking senator in coruscant itself..ppl will not realize until HC takes over and burns the jedi temple to create her imperium...8 years of asuric darkness as imperial star fleets roam the worlds oceans burning peaceful nations. The force is strong in her too.

Yoda will have flee to some remote planet and await luke growing up. Most of the jedi will perish.

The white house is to be painted black and Nazgul shall be resident in the attic to smell and snuff any revolt in the system...launching on their mistresses command

The eye of sauron will finally shine from atop the Obelisk on the mall

Huma will likely don her dark black robes, wield a lightsaber on emissaries of weaker powers and play lord vader

The conquest is complete. Olympus has fallen.

As for our jokey crew dawdling over tea and biskoot, operationalize long delayed stuff like nirbhay and garuda and stand ready for a serious fight with a emboldened rat tsp

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 13:45**

[/strike]

Singha wrote:Just as ppl kept looking for the sole surviving sith in the wrong places ie DT while darth sidious aka palpatine was the high ranking senator in coruscant itself..ppl will not realize until HC takes over and burns the jedi temple to create her imperium...8 years of asuric darkness as imperial star fleets roam the worlds oceans burning~~peaceful~~ nations. The force is strong in her too.

Yoda will have flee to some remote planet and await luke growing up. Most of the jedi will perish.

The white house is to be painted black and Nazgul shall be resident in the attic to smell and snuff any revolt in the system...launching on their mistresses command

The eye of sauron will finally shine from atop the Obelisk on the mall

Don't UK, US, KSA look peaceful, i.e.: all they want to do is to " help poor India to built more toilets and stuff..."

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 15:28**

hrc has to deal with congress which will remain with GOP. domestic issues are mounting pile high due to obstructionism. she can't be running around wild on foreign policy like before when ombaba was taking the heat and greying his hair.

And keeping a watch on bill with all those interns around. that will be a full time job by itself.

india will be the last on her list, if at all. and then there's modi and doval who knows and plays the game better.

tighten that lungi and control the shiver saar

. nothing majorly negative will happen.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 15:43**

So that person in DT rally is not even armed according to him and was let go immediately. How is it possible? I mean don't they at least check him properly which may take some time? He is even interviewed on CNN ( where else?). He said he got sign "Republicans against Trump".

The whole gang of lefties are discussing it. It seems DT son has tweeted that his father survived an assassination attempt and later deleted it. Someone elsewhere also said that there was an attempt on DT. So CNN is finding fault in all of that. Some bimbo was saying that how well Obomber handled someone who was dissenting etc. One wonder whether she knows how many kids and women Obomber droned in the war on terror.

I do not agree that HC will be busy etc. She needs to bomb few nations to win in 2020. Wag few dogs and all that. That she can do without anyone in Congress raising any voice. In fact, opposition to such actions may only come from Burnie supporters like Tulsi type people.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 16:55**

deep in the luray caverns of west virginia...Balrog...an ancient evil stirs....he senses the rise and crowning of Asuric forces .... more misery to feed on and grow strong ..... the world shall soon feel his wrath

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 17:03**

Yagnasri wrote:So that person in DT rally is not even armed

Q.E.D. Isn't that proof enough, hain? A Liberal Commie Pinko Democrat who is Against Da Rite 2 Bare Arms.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 17:09**

Dipanker wrote:This article from fortune throws some light on how much money ex politicians and presidents are raking as speaking fee. HIghest Clinton got paid was $750,000 from Erickson, Hong Kong.

Unquestionably Slick Willie is the best speaker of them all.

Speech inflation: Why Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and others get massive speaking fees

Ofcourse, I am sure that it had nothing to do with ensuring that telecom equipment was not in the enhanced sanctions list for Iran and other countries, a decision made by the US 1 week after that $750,000 speech. This revelation was made in the movie Clinton Cash and the CEO of Ericsson resigned a week after that. Just a coincidence!!

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 17:09**

We are selfish because we yearn for peace without caring for suffering of others. That is why there is this cry for Trump, there are plenty of Iraqis, Iranians, Russians, DPR Ukrainian, Serbs, Syrians, Palestinians, Vietnamese, Libyans who need vengeance. The anglo-zionist war machine has to meet their comeuppance, earlier the better.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 17:43**

To all the Experts who Decry the Abysmal Standard of Discussion on BRF (which is of course where we come to publish our meager attempts at serious work when we move up from WhatsApp) and the "I Tolled Yew Sos" I have 3 simple pooches:

Is the US Stock Market going Up or Down on Nov 9?
Is the Indian Stock Market going Up or Down on Nov 9-10?
Is the Japanese Stock Market going Up or Down on Nov 9-10?

The way I see it, if One Candidate wins, but its Party gets slapped in COTUS, we have another constipated GOTUS. No ability to pass laws, everything has to get done by Speaker Fees to hubbies/Foundations etc.
If One Candidate and Party wins both WHOTUS and COTUS, the markets in US will either zoom up or down, and the foreign markets will either zoom up or down. Very clear guidance.
If the election goes into a tossup and horse-trading at the Electoral College, US markets will go down, phoren markets will also go down.
If the FreeBiscuits act and arrest One Candidate or One President, ditto.
So overall, for US Markets, Upside and Downside chances ~~~ same. But Upside amplitude small, Downside Amplitude potential large.
Foreign markets, upside potential is large in probability and small in amplitude. Downside probability large, amplitude potential also large.

If HiC wins, will they slash US energy production? (nice gathering, When Shall V 3 Meet Again? In Nuclear, Oil On in Coal?) If so, oil AND Natural gas prices should shoot up per UBCN projections.

Otherwise energy prices will probably fall until KSA cuts production which is tough because they are in a bissing contest now with both Iran and Russia.

Will energy currency shift from dollar? Right now dollar is way up apparently. Can't see why, you can't get any interest on it!

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 17:46**

1 week after that $750,000 speech

Wonder if there is a correlation

Hail SlickWillie! Those about to commit soosai Pay To Play With ur Speaking Fees!

Ericksson. Research in Motion (BlackBerry, pbui). Qatar (I am sure Vlad has something very special in store for them).

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 17:49**

#Parody

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 18:10**

A small look at EV trends in Miami-Dade County with a full day of EV to go. During the Primaries, Trump lost this by close to 40% (HRC beat Sanders by 50% here) while Romney lost it by close to 23% in 2012 GE. Miami-Dade is the most populous in the State of Florida and has a majority hispanic population. If 2016 M-Dade turnout is similar to 2012 levels (aprox. 870K voters) than you are looking at upwards of 80% of the vote already in. I wouldn't be surprised if close to a million people end up voting here once ED vote is counted.

Overall across the state of Florida, more than 200,000 more hispanics have cast their ballots early compared to their 2012 numbers which was the previously held record for the state. Florida it seems is well on its way in terms of the most diverse electorate in its electoral history. As I had mentioned in Dade there are two GOTV efforts targeting the Hispanic/Cuban community. One from Obama/HRC and the democratic party and another from Marco Rubio who needs high cuban american turnout here to win comfortably. So far both appear to be working.

Overall, 6.1+ Million floridians have voted early compared to 4.5-5 Million in the 2012 cycle. Total Turnout (EV+EDV) should be closer to 2008 levels than 2012 levels.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 20:07**

All it really means is that this time ppl got their act together and did not wait until Election Day, maybe because they got tired of the lines last time? Early voting is generally sweet, 20 mins flat from park SUV to re-start SUV. Compare to 2 or 3 hours on Election Day. But I can't believe that public behavior can change for the smarter that fast. Last point: Registering Party X for primary is not 100% correlated with with Voting Party X in the Pres. election. Esp. this time. Like, one might have registered Donkey to vote Sanders against HiC, but may vote DT against HiC in General Election. Consistent if one is anti-HiC - which describes Bernie supporters, Trump supporters, Cruz supporters and Rubio supporters. Same the other way, but I can't think of many Cruz supporters who would come out to vote for HiC. You had to be way too anti-establishment and generally anti-human, anti-intelligence to be pro-Cruz. Cruz makes Wiener look like an angel.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 20:21**

All it really means is that this time ppl got their act together and did not wait until Election Day, maybe because they got tired of the lines last time?

Florida and NV normally has high EV turnout as a percentage of overall turnout. In 2012 the numbers were 4.7 Million or roughly 55% of the total votes cast. This time it could be well beyond 60% if total turnout is higher just like the EV turnout. If the total numbers remain unchanged or don't change significantly, you are looking at well over 70% of the electorate voting early.

Florida also had closed primaries for both the major parties so if you were really psyched about Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, Donald Turmp or any of the other running for the nomination, you had to make sure to register with hat party in order to vote for them prior to March, 2016.

Last point: Registering Party X for primary is not 100% correlated with with Voting Party X in the Pres. election. Esp. this time.

That is a point I've made as well. Take South Florida for example, Marco Rubio is driving out a decent number of registered Republican hispanics and has been doing 3-5 events a day in that region. Should we (going purely on voter registration) bank them for Trump as well? This is something that counting data from Dade and Broward counties will show and will be interesting to track on Tuesday night. The number to watch is the overall turnout in these two counties and what the democratic margin of victory is.

Another bit of data that comes out of the official EV numbers is the demographic makeup of NPA's voting early and the diversity among those that did not vote in 2012 but have already voted early in 2016. As of Saturday, 20% of the NPA's that voted early were hispanic which is higher than most would have thought.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 20:25**

Independents have been voting for DT more the HRC. Something like 2-1.

Posted: **06 Nov 2016 20:29**

Independents have been voting for DT more the HRC. Something like 2-1.

You will have to break this up and there is data out there that suggests its no where close to 2-1 (but let's let that pass for now).. An independent/NPA in Broward or Dade county isn't the same as the rest of Florida especially when these are majority Hispanic or majority minority areas. When votes come in you have to stop looking at the polls unless each and every county contributes exactly the same in driving up turn-out which is normally not the case. If there is a turnout increase compared to 2012, you have to see where that turnout increase comes from and where each candidate stands in terms of own-party support, independent/NPA support and the demographics of that area. I haven't come across Saturday data but so far as of Friday ,Hispanics, as a percent had higher representation in the independents than in the party registered voters - 20.1% to 14.5%. The opposite was true for White voters - 63.5% compared to 67.5%. Simply put, NPA's/Independents in Florida are more diverse in EV than the party-registered voters. . Do remember that Sunday EV favors the Democrats because the State of Florida has more EV sites open on Sunday in traditional democratic areas while EV ended in many republican dominant areas on Saturday.

By the end of the day we'll have a good idea of the demographic data from these two counties on the NPA's and those that did not vote in 2012. Early voting in Florida ends at 7 PM EST.The statewide AA+Hispanic EV turnout gain as of Friday was around +80,000 and should be close to or just above 100K including the turnout on Saturday. It could be higher after today's EV. This largely fueled by a greater than 150% increase in hispanic EV turnout.

IN Florida there will be a few things to watch

1- First would be the total vote count..Aproximately 8.4 Million voted in 2012. Trump needs to drive this closer to 9.5 Million to generate the massive white vote share advantage assuming he gets a lot more college educated white vote than is believed

2 - The traditional democratic firewall counties will be pivotal. Obama drove huge AA voters out in 08 and 12 and HRC won't match those. Collectively there are probably 100,000 more AA+Hispanice in EV than last time around. If this stays on pace, the net post ED count could be in excess of 200,000. That's a huge advantage regardless how one polls minority vote.

3- Similarly, If there is a higher turnout what will be most important is the geographic location of that increase. Are urban areas with majority minority populations such as Dade and Broward voting in large amounts or is it Tampa and other areas. As a example the early voting in Dade is already at 85+% of total voting in dade in 2012. If Dade drives a million voters out to th ballot (150+K more than 2012) and Broward has a high turnout we could easily see a massive democratic firewall in place much like they have done in Clark County Nevada.

4- Finally the Trump minority share. Can he match Romney with Hispanics? If not how much below Romney levels will he be?

Florida is unique because the GOP senator and the GOP presidential candidate have completely opposite GOTV goals. Rubio has to bank on high hispanic turnout in Dade and Broward while Trump needs them to stay home for the most part. There is no other state that has this dynamic.

Bharat Rakshak

Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

Re: Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

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