Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 11 Apr 2014 03:47

Singha wrote:

Pink Panter

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 11 Apr 2014 04:01

SwamyG wrote:While there is always a first time...but blaming EC has become frequent here. For my own education is thereba history of EC bias? Several institutions have been diluted and corroded by INC. Discounting Personal inclinations, is there an institutional bias by EC?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navin_Chawla

http://blog.lkadvani.in/blog-in-english ... government

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 11 Apr 2014 04:23

In Delhi, voters are clear they want change and development

The sentiment running through all the wards of the high-profile New Delhi constituency on Thursday during polling was that of change and development. Irrespective of age, sex or social background, voters from the tony neighbourhood of the New Delhi Municipal Corporation to Moti Nagar and from Karol Bagh to Greater Kailash – came out of their respective polling booths saying the same thing: “We need development”.

A large number of voters emphasised they were voting for change and chose not to name a particular party or candidate. “We want change and want a party at the Centre that can provide good governance”, one voter said. Others emphasised that good governance is needed to keep control on escalating prices of commodities. After casting her vote, the BJP candidate from Lodhi Estate, Meenakshi Lekhi, took the opportunity to tell the reporters, “BJP will win in all the seven constituencies and Narendra Modi will be the prime minister”.

At around 4:15 pm outside a booth at Patel Nagar’s primary school, a group of voters were found in a major debate along with a TV channel reporter. The reporter had asked one of them why he voted in favour of Aam Aadmi Party. Before the voter could reply, the others argued furiously that it was a mistake considering that Arvind Kejriwal had quit as Delhi chief minister. Thanks to the policeman, who came to the spot and asked them to disperse, the voter was saved from further verbal duel.

“I have voted for the BJP because I want to see Narendra Modi as prime minister, who can successfully implement the manifesto and provide a stable and good governance, which has been lacking for nearly a decade,” said Vinay Kumar Aneja, a 62-year-old resident of Ramesh Nagar, which falls under Moti Nagar Assembly constituency. A debutant voter of the same locality, 19-year-old Neel Agnihotri, added soon thereafter, “The young are sick of corruption and while we need to weed out corruption, development of the country is equally important.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 11 Apr 2014 04:29

In Gurgaon’s industrial hub villagers vote to punish Congress

As the Gurgaon constituency went to polls today, it was a vote for change as well as the 'vote to avenge' for many among the electorate. A few urban villages in the industrial hub of Manesar made sure that they vote to punish the Congress for the way they have been wronged by its governments both at the state and the Centre.

Most villagers have been chanting the Modi Mantra. "The votes are not for Rao Inderjit Singh, the BJP candidate, but these are the votes for Modi," Says Bablu Chauhan in Basgaon. However, the Aam Aadmi Party candidate Yogendra Yadav invokes respect among the people here. "He is a good man, but what's the point, his party is the B team of the Congress," says Bablu. According to the residents of this area, the BJP has run an extensive campaign here to promote the idea that the AAP is a subsidiary of the Congress party.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Apr 2014 05:04

Anmol: Thanks. the current CEC seeks greater autonomy.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 11 Apr 2014 05:15

Atri wrote: NDA will win handsomely in Vidarbha. Voting could have been slightly better. Summer taking its toll. Summer may be one factor working against NDA. deters people from coming out to vote. And its still early april. I wonder how janta will behave on 12th may etc..

Voting has been a lot higher than last time, Atri-ji. Last time, Nagpur had 43.5% voting, now you are saying it is 59%. 15% higher voting means BJP should get some benefit, no? Or am I wrong?

SagarAg · Post by **SagarAg** » 11 Apr 2014 05:42

Does BJP have any chances in Kerala? 73.6% voting.
Did 5forty4 had any volunteer posted in Kerala for data?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Apr 2014 05:55

Asianet's April survey showed for Thiruvananthapuram seat:
O Rajagopal (BJP) 34%
Shashi Tharoor (INC) 32%
Bennet Abraham (CPI) 31%

Sample size was around 6000. Rather too close to call.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 11 Apr 2014 05:56

it depends on what type of voters made up the extra % voting. if they were young and youthful, there is high chance of bjp share within those percentiles. older they get, they might choose either aap or kangrez.. again depending on their orientation and nationhood thoughts. generally speaking, non-politically inclined people will go by the leadership qualities rather party names. so, if bjp had field in that area well known leadership personalities, there is a higher chance of getting such votes.

@EOD, it is all how the wave pattern establishes. we shall see soon!

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 11 Apr 2014 05:57

What about Bihar. Voting seems to be lower than 2009?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 11 Apr 2014 06:07

subhamoy.das wrote:What about Bihar. Voting seems to be lower than 2009?

No, saar. Voting is about 10-15% higher in the districts that went to polls yesterday in Bihar, compared to 2009.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Apr 2014 06:21

I wish posters would actually do due diligence before repeatedly saying 'low turnout' or doing spontaneous dhoti shiver. That is just laziness on your part. These are momentous times. Do your bit to collect and post data too.

After Delhi reported highest turnout since 1984, here's Chandigarh:
Chandigarh 'poll vaults' to 75%; record turnout highest since 1967

Breaking all previous records of the parliamentary elections in Chandigarh since 1967, residents of the City Beautiful turned out in record numbers on Thursday to exercise their franchise. The election wing of the Chandigarh administration registered 75% polling, which stretched up to three hours beyond the official closing time, mainly in the rehabilitation colony in Dhanas, Ramdarbar, and parts of Sector 42.

High turnout may be good for Kiron Kher.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Apr 2014 06:35

Turnout is good to predict in seats with divisions. In Maharashtra, MP it might not help.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 11 Apr 2014 06:38

@Bibekdebroy cautions that due to electoral roll cleanup, the turnout %s are not really comparable with figures for previous polls.

At one level I agree. The absolute numbers should do the talking, perhaps. There's no doubt the total # of eligible voters ahs only gone up with every election. So a hogher % turnout on a higher base is indicative of the rends we're all seeing in the data, I reckon...

SagarAg · Post by **SagarAg** » 11 Apr 2014 06:49

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Apr 2014 07:04

More turnout data from IBNlive

BIHAR
1. Sasaram - 54 per cent
2. Karakat - 51 per cent
3. Aurangabad - 47.5 per cent
4. Gaya - 51.64 per cent
5. Nawada - 49 per cent

MAHARASHTRA
1. Buldhana -44 per cent
2. Akola -39 per cent
3. Amravati - 46 per cent
4. Wardha - 42 per cent
5. Ramtek -40.3 per cent
6. Nagpur - 48 per cent
7. Bhandara-Gondiya - 53 per cent
8. Gadchiroli-Chimur - 59 per cent
9. Chandrapur -43.49 per cent
10. Yavatmal-Washim -40 per cent

JAMMU & KASHMIR
1. Jammu - 68 per cent

CHHATTISGARH
1. Bastar - 47 per cent

UTTAR PRADESH
1. Saharanpur - 68.40 per cent
2. Kairana - 64.90 per cent
3. Muzaffarnagar - 63.53 per cent
4. Bijnor - 62.96 per cent
5. Meerut - 60.50 per cent
6. Baghpat - 61.52 per cent
7. Ghaziabad - 60.20 per cent
8. Gautam buddha nagar - 47.20 per cent
9. Bulandshahar - 61.60 per cent
10. Aligarh - 55.60 per cent

DELHI

1. Chandni chowk - 66.8 per cent
2. West Delhi - 65.64 per cent
3. East Delhi - 65.59 per cent
4. South Delhi - 62.67 per cent
5. Northwest Delhi - 61.38 per cent
6. North-East Delhi - 67.08 per cent

HARYANA
1. Ambala - 70.7 per cent
2. Kurukshetra - 75.8 per cent
3. Sirsa - 76 per cent
4. Gurgaon - 70.02 per cent
5. Faridabad - 60.08 per cent

JHARKHAND
1. Chatra - 53.88 per cent
2. Kodarma - 60.97 per cent
3. Lohardaga - 59 per cent
4. Palamau - 59.30 per cent

LAKSHADWEEP
1. Lakshadweep - 71.36 per cent

ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS
1. Andaman & Nicobar Island - 70 per cent

MADHYA PRADESH
1. Satna -53.77 per cent
2. Rewa -53.99 per cent
3. Sidh -56.45 per cent
4. Shahdol -60.79 per cent
5. Jabalpur -48.14 per cent
6. Mandla -65.53 per cent
7. Balaghat -62.52 per cent
8 Chhindwara -70.93 per cent
9. Hoshangabad -65.01 per cent

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Apr 2014 07:09

^^^ i think the data on ibnlive is not updated. In MP final voting was 63-64%. Jabalpur crossed 55% minimum.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 11 Apr 2014 07:10

Polling records as per HT. Please read the first figure for 2009, and second figure for 2014. In case of no second figure, it is because of lack of data.

Buldhana 61.8%
Akola 50%
Amravati 51.5% 65%
Wardha 54.7%
Ramtek 50.9%
Nagpur 43.5% 62%
Bhandara-Gondiya 71.1%
Gadchiroli-Chimur 65.2% 68.33%
Chandrapur-Washim 58.5% 65%
Yavatmal 54.1% 65%

source: http://www.hindustantimes.com/elections ... 06523.aspx

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 11 Apr 2014 07:24

Not sure I'm getting a whole lot of gyaan from that 543 website, but the idea was to contribute to a good cause, so that should be fine.

Hope Modi is saving his OBC card for good future use. He hasn't used it much in the campaign, methinks. Imagine if he becomes PM, and comes out with a message saying - "A member of a disadvantaged section like me can become PM of the land without reservations - so what do the rest of you need reservations for? Compete on equal terms with everybody else and win your laurels."

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 11 Apr 2014 07:29

There's no more damning evidence for the fact that Modi is a cheap man and getting cheaper every day than the movement in satta bazaar rates before and after the voting happened...

'nuff said onlee...

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 11 Apr 2014 07:36

Errrr.... does the above mean the odds for RaGa improved and Modi decreased slightly since Thursday?

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 11 Apr 2014 07:43

BJP’s Sushma Swaraj gives Odisha rallies a miss

Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/politics/bjps- ... ef_article

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 11 Apr 2014 07:46

^^No, it means Modi's chances have bettered (from 0.42 to 0.38, so risk on his winning has reduced) whereas that for all others has soared...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2014 07:53

No I think in the odds have gotten worse from 0.38 to 0.42. whenever the probability of a event declines you get paid more per Rupee.

kind of pointless though with the nearest contender having more than 10X worse odds

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Apr 2014 07:58

Does that mean if a person bets Rs.1 on Modi, and Modi wins then the person gets only Rs0.42 (a loss of Rs0.58)? Which means the chance of Modi winning is huge versus say the person betting on Rahul who will stand to gain Rs5.50 (6.5 minus 1)? Am I reading it correct?

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 11 Apr 2014 08:02

No mention of BJP in this report.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-th ... ap-1977184

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 11 Apr 2014 08:09

SwamyG wrote:Does that mean if a person bets Rs.1 on Modi, and Modi wins then the person gets only Rs0.42 (a loss of Rs0.58)? Which means the chance of Modi winning is huge versus say the person betting on Rahul who will stand to gain Rs5.50 (6.5 minus 1)? Am I reading it correct?

SwamyG, it means that a person betting Re. 1 on Modiji will win Rs. 1.43 if he wins.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2014 08:11

SwamyG wrote:Does that mean if a person bets Rs.1 on Modi, and Modi wins then the person gets only Rs0.42 (a loss of Rs0.58)? Which means the chance of Modi winning is huge versus say the person betting on Rahul who will stand to gain Rs5.50 (6.5 minus 1)? Am I reading it correct?

one slight correction. you will get 1.42 ....
rest is correct.....basically if enough people bet on Raul, his odds will improve. and it has improved in the last 3 days per that image.

by betting on a low probabily long shot like Kejriwal, you are putting at your money at huge risk of loss (getting 0 back)...so if he wins you get hugely rewarded..thats the logic of all betting. high risk -> high reward.

so why dont everyone bet on Namo, this would leave the satta operator at a huge loss....thats because people are tempted by the chance of a massive payoff and bet on lower chance horse or spread their bets.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 11 Apr 2014 08:27

Still it would be huge gain of 40%+ if I put all money on NAMO. No other asset class would deliver this ROI in one year.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2014 08:29

thats why big businessmen and bollywood types move around with suitcases of cash in satta bazar!
problem comes its illegal in india, so how do you deploy the gains? if you stash in bank everyone will know.
it has to be kept circulating or parked in real estate or kept in a trunk maybe...or parked in some "NGO/adharmic trust"

the big boys know the stock market is rigged by the insiders and whales, retail investors 'know' when the biggies have already made their profit, so they mostly invest in property. many of the bollywood celebs incl some hot babes have 5 or even 10 properties each in mumbai.

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 11 Apr 2014 08:29

Thanks for the insight Singha-ji, that's what I thought too. Never bet in my life myself (except very SDRE-ly in stocks). And the way I madly crank the one-armed bandit in various casinos of the world I do not want to do it too. Ever.

Anyway, odds are highly in favor of Modi. But I wish I saw the higher granularity - i.e. the betting correlation in the local constituency, state/segment levels etc. However, betting is a highly metropolis/urban phenomena and based in such areas too, right? Parkalaam.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Apr 2014 08:40

muraliravi wrote:^^^ i think the data on ibnlive is not updated. In MP final voting was 63-64%. Jabalpur crossed 55% minimum.

Yes of course, highest reported number from any source for a given place is the one to use. Elsewhere, the only available number establishes a baseline.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 11 Apr 2014 08:43

Jammu voting jumps 19% (49% in 2009, 68% in 2014). Interestingly, Hindu areas like Jammu and Samba have witnessed high voting.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/punjab/ch ... 06372.aspx

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 11 Apr 2014 08:44

subhamoy.das wrote:Still it would be huge gain of 40%+ if I put all money on NAMO. No other asset class would deliver this ROI in one year.

You would not be putting your money on NaMo.

You would be putting that money on the lowlife Bookie. The Bookie is your real Asset class

.

Abhijit · Post by **Abhijit** » 11 Apr 2014 08:46

^^^ Satta rates - wrong wrong wrong. The rates have come DOWN from Last Sunday to today. That means Modi's probability have gone UP. Folks, by the time of the last phase of the elections, the rate will come down to 10 paise. Which means a rupee bet will fetch you only 1.10.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 11 Apr 2014 08:49

Singha wrote:No I think in the odds have gotten worse from 0.38 to 0.42. whenever the probability of a event declines you get paid more per Rupee.

kind of pointless though with the nearest contender having more than 10X worse odds

Thursday refers to yesterday (I presume), not previous Thursday. In that case, odds have gotten better for Modi after yesterday's round.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 11 Apr 2014 08:51

Suraj wrote:Asianet's April survey showed for Thiruvananthapuram seat:
O Rajagopal (BJP) 34%
Shashi Tharoor (INC) 32%
Bennet Abraham (CPI) 31%

Sample size was around 6000. Rather too close to call.

From what I heard in the local Chai pe Charcha today, there is a very good chance for BJP in Thiruvananthapuram & Kasargod

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 11 Apr 2014 08:52

Abhijit wrote:^^^ Satta rates - wrong wrong wrong. The rates have come DOWN from Last Sunday to today. That means Modi's probability have gone UP. Folks, by the time of the last phase of the elections, the rate will come down to 10 paise. Which means a rupee bet will fetch you only 1.10.

not 1.10 only 10 paise.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 11 Apr 2014 08:54

guardian, bbc, nytimes you name it.. are all pro pappu and heavy modi bashers.. and all of the reporters are indics anyway. example: higher turnout in muzzafarnagar to vote bjp out! jee.. and an analysie to themselves.

anyway.. why is this man unhappy at the booth? did he press the wrong button?

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 11 Apr 2014 08:54

Minor nitpick, singha saar...

The news report clearly states that before voting (till sunday evening) the odds for NM were 0.42. After voting (till thu evening) they declined to 0.38. So how come you say the odds have worsened for NM only?

Yes, I agree that a 38% return wouldn't be bad at all in these trying times. As more and more money gets placed on NM, his satta rate will plunge. After all, the house has to win (or at least break even), no?