Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 11 Apr 2014 08:59

abhijitm wrote:
Abhijit wrote:^^^ Satta rates - wrong wrong wrong. The rates have come DOWN from Last Sunday to today. That means Modi's probability have gone UP. Folks, by the time of the last phase of the elections, the rate will come down to 10 paise. Which means a rupee bet will fetch you only 1.10.
not 1.10 only 10 paise.

Arre ... all the wagers are like perpetually high. All they can talk about is their immediate personal gains without regard to any other aspects.

Hence as a rule all wagering (hedging!) related markets like to quote only on the premium/discount. Everything else is useless details for them. As pointed out earlier 10 paisa would by your profit if you can call it that.

Notice no -ve 10 paisa kind quotes.

Good people - low risk <=> high reward
Bad people - high risk <=> high reward
Good people - low risk <=> more skills
Bad people - high risk <=> high life
Good people - Businessmen, professionals, workers, BRF members
Bad people - Filmi people, Bookies, strangers, PDF members
Good people - corrupt only in absence of legal options
Bad people - corrupt because that is their only option

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Apr 2014 09:02

Prem Kumar wrote:From what I heard in the local Chai pe Charcha today, there is a very good chance for BJP in Thiruvananthapuram & Kasargod

More tidbits please! TVM sounds possible; it depends on how the Nairs, Xtians and Nadars (both Hindu and Xtians) voted. Both Rajagopal and Tharoor are Nairs, while Abraham is a Nadar Xtian.

BJP winning Kasargod would be very interesting, especially if they can then connect to BJP's network in SoKA and expand further southwards into Kerala . I think the best way for BJP into Kerala is not try to build influence everywhere at one go and spread themselves thin, but expand southwards from Mysore starting with Kasargod, as well as westwards from Kanyakumari, Coimbatore/Pollachi and the Nilgiris in TN, where they are influential.

Central/southern Travancore is the UDF stronghold I think, and the hardest to capture, while LDF is stronger in the northern parts, but the Ezhava base supporting them can move to BJP sooner.

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 11 Apr 2014 09:03

Lower the odds, higher the return. It means modi going from 0.42 to 0.38...Satta market sees him being PM going up.

RG's rate has gone up....It means him being PM gone down.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Apr 2014 09:09

Shaktiman and Singha. Thanks, as I was typing my calculation for Modi it did not feel right. What you say makes sense.

James B · Post by **James B** » 11 Apr 2014 09:27

A good table on voter turnout comparison

niran · Post by **niran** » 11 Apr 2014 09:38

Chandnichowk:
Dr. Harsh Vardhan of BJP contesting against Kapil Sibal of Congress
apparently Dr. janab used to live/play in his langooti days in one of the sikular mohallas here,
the bearded maulana remembers him and decreed the mohalla vote goes to Dr.(~4000 votes)
there is another mohalla Jhandewallan or some such thing filled with old families Brahmins families of UP
and Punjabi pandits overwhelmingly BJP votes
then there is a mohalla filled with publishing and book sellers supposedly all voted BJP
all in all if those voter has not lied then Dr. Harshwardhan should have 41% votes against Kapil sibal's 33%

Meenakshi Lekhi did better than Dr. janab but still Makan janab have saved his deposit.

Manoj Tiwary the Bhojpuri singer from Bihar did best, almost 56% votes.

General VK Singh should win he has accuired 47% votes but once again Rajbabber of congress saved his deposits.

Saharanpur
this is where sabir boti boti ali of congress is contesting saw polarizing of votes early morning till noon
the sekulars voted enbloc to congress later in the day Raghav Lakhanpal of BJP along with cadres rallied the lazy bums and he stands at 39% votes.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 11 Apr 2014 09:47

nageshks wrote:Voting has been a lot higher than last time, Atri-ji. Last time, Nagpur had 43.5% voting, now you are saying it is 59%. 15% higher voting means BJP should get some benefit, no? Or am I wrong?

yes.. from gadkari's PoV, he needs to win handsomely. I am saying NDA will do very good n vidarbha. 8 seats out of 10 are sure in bag. nagpur was always a tough seat for BJP. I am sure BJP will win in nagpur. But I am personally bit disappointed with turnout in MH. I was expecting >65% average.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2014 09:48

I read the tuesday and thursday wrongly then. 0.38 is better for namo.

vic · Post by **vic** » 11 Apr 2014 09:50

Re Niran

What are all India trends at the moment for BJP and NDA?

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 11 Apr 2014 09:59

This song is dedicated to Abu Aazmi for his statement here http://www.mid-day.com/articles/shockin ... i/15222050

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 11 Apr 2014 10:09

Anything on Dr. Mahesh Joshi vs. BSP vs. SP (Devendar whatever Bhatti) in Noida seat.

......................

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/kejri ... 75489.html

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... 574470.cms

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 10:17

Target Modi, teachers cast strategic votes
http://telegraphindia.com/1140411/jsp/n ... [quote]The three academics’ choices need not leave Modi unduly worried.

Another shift was also perceptible today. Sections of the poor who have been promised the moon by the short-lived AAP government in Delhi appeared to be reviewing their option.

Random conversations suggest many poor voters in Delhi felt that the AAP was not the right choice for the parliamentary election and voted for Modi instead. In the affluent New Delhi constituency where the rejection of Sheila Dikshit was writ large on the walls during the Assembly election, the unending stream of enthusiastic Kejriwal fans that was visible three months ago was missing today.

In East Delhi’s unauthorised colonies where AAP’s emergence surprised most pundits, young men outside the polling booths spoke of the need for a new “PM”. “Jhadu kitni bar chalengi, is bar PM change karna hai (How many times the broom? We have to change the PM this time),” said a young voter who did not want to be named.

Asked what he saw in Modi, a Dalit slum-dweller said: “Tarakki layega (He will bring development).

A college student in Mayur Vihar, who has begun to worry about jobs, echoed the sentiment. “Modi has changed Gujarat. People say he will solve all the problems. Let us give him a chance, after all, we gave decades to the Congress.”

Several auto drivers, day labourers and shopkeepers too merrily sang out: “Abki baar, Modi sarkar. (This time, a Modi government).”[/quote]

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 10:23

Firstpost ‏@firstpostin 1h

New book reveals: How MMS allowed himself to look like Sonia’s patsy http://dlvr.it/5Mp7Gs

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 11 Apr 2014 10:23

10:10 How can Amit Shah take revenge when he can't protect his hair: Azam:

The battle for 2014 Lok Sabha polls continues to get more personal as Samajwadi Party leader Azam Khan has now challenged BJP's Uttar Pradesh in-charge Amit Shah saying he can't take revenge from them for the Muzaffarnagar riots.

Khan said, "Amit Shah said he wants to take revenge from us. A man who couldn't save the hair on his own head, what can he do?" The remarks came in the backdrop of BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi's close aide telling Jat voters that the 2014 election was an opportunity to take revenge for the communal riots.

While addressing a rally Shah had said, "If you want to take revenge you should vote for the BJP. You can no longer resolve a matter with swords and arrows. Today you can take revenge by voting for the BJP."

these guys are setting new standards , that even paki's will find hard to beat

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 11 Apr 2014 10:25

amdavadi wrote:Lower the odds, higher the return. It means modi going from 0.42 to 0.38...Satta market sees him being PM going up.

RG's rate has gone up....It means him being PM gone down.

Pliss to see picture again.
This is Fridin paper. It says "Betting rates on Thursday eveing" i.e yesterdin.
It also says "Betting rates till Sunday" .Change is from 0.38 to 0.42.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 11 Apr 2014 10:25

City’s middle class inks a NaMo story

http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/ ... wMode=HTML

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 10:29

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 1h

Mathai claimed to be Indira's lover for 12 years.. by Kushwant Singhi @OutlookIndia .. @ndtv @ibnlive http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?211281 …

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 11 Apr 2014 10:29

UP voting final tally.

Ratnakar Sadasyula ‏@ScorpiusMaximus now

Final Western UP voting% Aligarh-61 Baghpat-67 Bijnore-66 Bulandshahr-57 GB Nagar-62 Ghaziabad-60 Hapur-61 Meerut-63 Muzaffarnagar-68 Saharanpur-73 Shamli-69,

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 10:37

BJP castes net to unite Hindu votes in Uttar Pradesh
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/bjp- ... [quote]The BJP has managed an incredible churn in Uttar Pradesh's caste cauldron, thus galvanising a Hindu phalanx at a time when the Muslim vote seems splintered.

While UP has witnessed a polarisation of 18.5 per cent Muslim votes in the past, it is for the first time in the history of the state that the Hindu votes, cutting across castes, have got consolidated behind the saffron party.

...
But something unique is happening this time. It appears that barring a portion of roughly seven per cent Yadav votes and six per cent Jatav votes, the remaining castes are all set to vote for BJP's prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi. The Yadavs will perhaps stick to Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Mulayam Singh Yadav; the Jatavs will opt for their caste leader Mayawati.[/quote]Saba Naqvi on TimesNow suggested even some jatav and yadav vote too has gone to BJP.

And this comes at a time when the Muslim vote seems fractured as the community seems to have lost faith on 'secular' parties after the riots in Muzaffarnagar in September 2013.

The desperation caused by the split in Muslim votes is also reflected in Mayawati's speeches. The BSP supremo has addressed over a dozen public meetings in western UP so far, and in every meeting she has indicated that while votes for Modi were consolidated, the Muslims were divided. "I wanted to alert the Muslim community that you would repent if your vote was divided between the Congress, the SP and the BSP. Only the BSP can stop Modi," she said at a recent rally.

This kind of social engineering of the BJP could be the reason that prompted Jamiat Ulama-i-Hind president Maulana Arshad Madani to say that the country is moving towards a Hindu state.

The desperation is also reflected in the last few days speeches of SP leaders.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 11 Apr 2014 10:56

Suraj wrote: More tidbits please! TVM sounds possible; it depends on how the Nairs, Xtians and Nadars (both Hindu and Xtians) voted. Both Rajagopal and Tharoor are Nairs, while Abraham is a Nadar Xtian.

BJP winning Kasargod would be very interesting, especially if they can then connect to BJP's network in SoKA and expand further southwards into Kerala . I think the best way for BJP into Kerala is not try to build influence everywhere at one go and spread themselves thin, but expand southwards from Mysore starting with Kasargod, as well as westwards from Kanyakumari, Coimbatore/Pollachi and the Nilgiris in TN, where they are influential.

Central/southern Travancore is the UDF stronghold I think, and the hardest to capture, while LDF is stronger in the northern parts, but the Ezhava base supporting them can move to BJP sooner.

I dont have a deep understanding of Kerala politics. But for a state where BJP has won nothing, if we get 2 seats, its commendable. Without Hindu unity (Nairs + Ezhavas), further inroads wouldnt be possible

I just spoke to the BJP IT Cell head of Coimbatore. Their local police intelligence says that BJP is leading, followed by ADMK. They were upbeat, but wanted to ensure that the middle/upper-middle class North Indians in Coimbatore come out and vote on D-day. He was asking that we call and urge them to vote. He said they are all Modi supporters but will not bother voting unless they see others from their community voting.

Rupesh · Post by **Rupesh** » 11 Apr 2014 10:57

Vadra dude looks like a Italian mafia guy from florida.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 11:02

GAURAV C SAWANT ‏@gauravcsawant 1h

Netas treading on thin ice while commenting on one neta's child bride. Several skeletons could now come tumbling out if it is open season

Neena Rai ‏@NeenaRai 13h

Can someone shed light on @digvijaya_28 secret life with second wife? And has she been named on the papers? https://twitter.com/neenarai/status/454298296677183488 …

Saswati Sarkar ‏@sarkar_swati 1h

NCW has immensely devalued itself - why is it interfering in private affairs without any complaint? Are women not to be treated as adults?

Transfer Pricing ‏@ArmsLengthTP 1h

Natl comm 4 women asking about Jasodhaben's rights, but silent on wife of Union Min found dead after accusing husband of an affair

Latust anti-Modi letter .. in these desperate days all options are being explore to pull him down .. one can wonlee laugh

The Guardian ‏@guardian 1h

Open letter from @ImranKhanPTI, @SalmanRushdie and more: If Modi is elected, it will bode ill for India's future http://gu.com/p/3zbxx/tw

India today had to consult NYT to understand this

India Today ‏@IndiaToday 1h

Acknowledgement of wife may not damage Modi: NYT http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/nare ... 55065.html …

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 11 Apr 2014 11:12

Neela wrote:
amdavadi wrote:Lower the odds, higher the return. It means modi going from 0.42 to 0.38...Satta market sees him being PM going up.

RG's rate has gone up....It means him being PM gone down.
Pliss to see picture again.
This is Fridin paper. It says "Betting rates on Thursday eveing" i.e yesterdin.
It also says "Betting rates till Sunday" .Change is from 0.38 to 0.42.

I saw the picture. till sunday it was .42 paisa for every rupee bet. Now it is 0.38 for every rupee put on Namo. It means satta market is paying .38 paisa on
every rupee on namo today as in his changes have gone up...You have ever played satta market in India? by the time may 16th, it will come down to 0.15.
Look at the picture again.....Everyone else satta rate gone except modi's. As modi's odd being PM has gone up while odd's of raga,mullah,kejri gone down as satta market is paying more on the bets put on them.

archan · Post by **archan** » 11 Apr 2014 11:23

^ eggjaktly, I was surprised so many people got it wrong.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 11 Apr 2014 11:23

Suraj wrote: BJP winning Kasargod would be very interesting, especially if they can then connect to BJP's network in SoKA and expand further southwards into Kerala . I think the best way for BJP into Kerala is not try to build influence everywhere at one go and spread themselves thin, but expand southwards from Mysore starting with Kasargod, as well as westwards from Kanyakumari, Coimbatore/Pollachi and the Nilgiris in TN, where they are influential.

Central/southern Travancore is the UDF stronghold I think, and the hardest to capture, while LDF is stronger in the northern parts, but the Ezhava base supporting them can move to BJP sooner.

This is based on a sample size of 1, so it maybe biased. My sister says that in both Kozhikode and Kasargod, BJP is going to do decently this time, since BJP has made a dent into the Nair and Thiyya votebanks to some degree. Earlier, BJP was limited to Kasargod and Manjeshwar Assembly constituencies, which are Tulu speaking and have more affinity towards coastal Karnataka. But BJP expanding into Malabar would be good from many perspectives, not least having someone to keep the Gulf enriched Jihadis in check. With IUML demanding a separate Malabar state, and forming ~40% of Malabar, it is good if BJP forms its own cadre base in the two vital districts of Kasargod and Kozhikode (both districts have around 35% Muslims), and links up with Indic Christians in Kozhikode. This should keep a salutary check on these civic warriors.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 11 Apr 2014 11:53

sudarshan wrote:Not sure I'm getting a whole lot of gyaan from that 543 website, but the idea was to contribute to a good cause, so that should be fine.

Hope Modi is saving his OBC card for good future use. He hasn't used it much in the campaign, methinks. Imagine if he becomes PM, and comes out with a message saying - "A member of a disadvantaged section like me can become PM of the land without reservations - so what do the rest of you need reservations for? Compete on equal terms with everybody else and win your laurels."

He already said that, I think in Delhi Rohini area last year. "I want to thank BJP for making me what I'm today. I used to sell chai on the railway station in childhood.........."

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 11 Apr 2014 12:01

If one were to go by the reports from no hope areas like KL, TN, AS and WB it appears there is already a latent voter base for BJP. And this mass of support has not gone down but increased in last few years. Some of these support may translate into few unexpected bonus seats.
What lacks is enthusiastic and dedicated local cadre. Plus the local leaders too side with dominant political power.
There is also an additional problem that any grass root level organizations working for a community under demographic seize are not able to coordinate with larger forces at play at national level.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 11 Apr 2014 12:01

Can Kejri enter Parliament by RS route? Or is that closed?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 12:03

He can if some party nominates him and has the strength to push his case.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Apr 2014 12:08

nageshks wrote:This is based on a sample size of 1, so it maybe biased. My sister says that in both Kozhikode and Kasargod, BJP is going to do decently this time, since BJP has made a dent into the Nair and Thiyya votebanks to some degree. Earlier, BJP was limited to Kasargod and Manjeshwar Assembly constituencies, which are Tulu speaking and have more affinity towards coastal Karnataka. But BJP expanding into Malabar would be good from many perspectives, not least having someone to keep the Gulf enriched Jihadis in check. With IUML demanding a separate Malabar state, and forming ~40% of Malabar, it is good if BJP forms its own cadre base in the two vital districts of Kasargod and Kozhikode (both districts have around 35% Muslims), and links up with Indic Christians in Kozhikode. This should keep a salutary check on these civic warriors.

Yes I've heard similar sentiments from N.Kerala family. Like I said, the BJP would be best served by consolidating slowly into a few seats and expanding from there. Unlike other states, there isn't often a power vacuum in the state that a 3rd party can expand into. It will necessarily be zero sum in many ways, because certain constituencies are either UDF or LDF strongholds and others are binary. The BJP will have to plan on gaining dominance 1-2 constituencies at a time, and TVM and Kasargod are both prefectly good options for them, because they both reflect two very different circumstances - a primarily UDF area (TVM) and a primarily LDF area (Kasargod). They could build another node at Ernakulam LS district, but they need someone to outdo KV Thomas.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 11 Apr 2014 12:12

maitas66 @chinmaykrvd · 18m ago
RSS functionaries say Modi should ramp up attack on Mamtha.Situation amenable

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 11 Apr 2014 12:17

I had said that AAP is going to get a big ZERO for Parliament.

With Mukhtar Ansari withdrawing his nomination, perhaps Kejri can save his deposit in Varanasi! I find this tragic. BJP should simply tell Mukhtar Ansari that if he withdraws, he is going to be sent to jail for so long, his mommy would forget he ever lived.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 11 Apr 2014 12:17

^^

RajeshAji,

Instead a broad front attack, Modi should (must) concentrate in the manner as Surajji is suggesting above for Kerala.
Attack MB in constituencies where BJP has a good presence. Fortunately erstwhile BJP constituencies in Bengal are urban constituencies. They understand issues of national importance. Mix local bread and butter issues and demographic warning.

rohitv · Post by **rohitv** » 11 Apr 2014 12:19

pankajs wrote:
MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 1h

Mathai claimed to be Indira's lover for 12 years.. by Kushwant Singhi @OutlookIndia .. @ndtv @ibnlive http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?211281 …

The chapter "She" of Mathai's book which was not in the print is available online

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 11 Apr 2014 12:29

SRoy wrote:^^

RajeshAji,

Instead a broad front attack, Modi should (must) concentrate in the manner as Surajji is suggesting above for Kerala.
Attack MB in constituencies where BJP has a good presence. Fortunately erstwhile BJP constituencies in Bengal are urban constituencies. They understand issues of national importance. Mix local bread and butter issues and demographic warning.

I disagree here somewhat.

If NaMo, the PM candidate targets Mamata, it is a general attack, and cannot really be localized completely. Of course NaMo should be selective about where he holds his rallies, but regardless of where these are held, the attack would be on Mamata overall.

In some constituencies, perhaps NaMo can shift the vote to BJP to a level where BJP wins. In other constituencies where Congress still has some presence, attacks on Mamata would shift Muslim votes to her, even as NaMo takes the Hindu votes, though Mamata ultimately wins these constituencies.

In some constituencies where CPI-M and TMC are neck and neck, there BJP can put up weak candidates to let Mamata win.

Where CPI-M is very strong, but Muslim population is still less than 30%, there NaMo should take on CPI-M directly as the true representative of Poribortan.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 11 Apr 2014 12:40

i wonder why mails from INC is going to spam folder, in all my email ids, yahoo/gmail. if it was legitimate, it should show in inbox

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 11 Apr 2014 12:58

RajeshA wrote:
SRoy wrote:^^

RajeshAji,

Instead a broad front attack, Modi should (must) concentrate in the manner as Surajji is suggesting above for Kerala.
Attack MB in constituencies where BJP has a good presence. Fortunately erstwhile BJP constituencies in Bengal are urban constituencies. They understand issues of national importance. Mix local bread and butter issues and demographic warning.
I disagree here somewhat.

If NaMo, the PM candidate targets Mamata, it is a general attack, and cannot really be localized completely. Of course NaMo should be selective about where he holds his rallies, but regardless of where these are held, the attack would be on Mamata overall.

In some constituencies, perhaps NaMo can shift the vote to BJP to a level where BJP wins. In other constituencies where Congress still has some presence, attacks on Mamata would shift Muslim votes to her, even as NaMo takes the Hindu votes, though Mamata ultimately wins these constituencies.

In some constituencies where CPI-M and TMC are neck and neck, there BJP can put up weak candidates to let Mamata win.

Where CPI-M is very strong, but Muslim population is still less than 30%, there NaMo should take on CPI-M directly as the true representative of Poribortan.

Cong is a fringe player in polls when it comes to seats, despite whatever numbers it can muster. M votes are consolidated in a single bloc. Left voters are dedicated communists and ideologues. So, not sure whether tactical voting will help, which means TMC with M votes remain unaffected.

Another viable path is to aim for maximum possible votes, try to come up to 2nd position to wrest the opposition space from Left riff-raff.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 11 Apr 2014 12:59

hanumadu wrote: He is running circles around the entire family and his corruption will be their down fall (further than it would have been otherwise).

On the contrary it is the family using him, all the charges are against him of corruption. Did the msm-khujli or anyone else take the name of bianca-raul-antonia at all? And where all that money-property will go? His father-sister-brother all died by unnatural death.

So he gets all the blame and familia gets all the gold and silver. He is just a pawn to used.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 11 Apr 2014 13:29

"In Northwest Delhi, Muslim leaders mobilised the community to vote in large numbers for the BJP"

http://indianexpress.com/article/cities ... urnout/99/

In Northwest Delhi, Muslim leaders mobilised the community to vote in large numbers for the BJP.

“I was a BSP worker for the last 10 years, but this time, we took a collective decision to not vote against a party, but to vote for development. That is why we have voted for the BJP,” Farzana Begum, a resident of Kirari, said.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 11 Apr 2014 13:29

The biggest challenge for BJP in Kerala is THE visible disconnect between national leadership and state leadership. Most often state leaders are accused of favouring either UDF or LDF in key constituencies. Send someone like Amit Shah down to Kerala after elections to shake up and restructure the whole setup.