Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Apr 2014 22:53

Ambar wrote:Muraliravi, are the voteshare projection on 5fourty3 as expected ? I was a bit surprised looking at the MP and Bihar voteshare prediction towards RJD/Congress.

MP is surprising, but nothing surprising about bihar. That much votes, lalu+cong can always manage.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 14 Apr 2014 23:05

^^^What is surprising about MP? Kamal Nath was probably the only seat going to Congress on April 10. Even then, it could still go to BJP given the high turnout. The only other safe Congress seat is in Guna where Joy Scindia is contesting.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Apr 2014 23:14

Mort Walker wrote:^^^What is surprising about MP? Kamal Nath was probably the only seat going to Congress on April 10. Even then, it could still go to BJP given the high turnout. The only other safe Congress seat is in Guna where Joy Scindia is contesting.

Sorry, my mistake, I thought BJP had 54% vote share in Madhya Pradesh 2013 assembly polls, actual numbers were 46% for BJP and 37 for cong. So take my statement back. MP and Bihar both seem reasonable.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 15 Apr 2014 01:21

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... -telltale/

BETTING ON
WHILE Congress candidates in Chandigarh and Amritsar — Pawan Kumar Bansal and Amarinder Singh, respectively — are believed to be having a neck-and-neck contest with their BJP rivals — Kirron Kher and Arun Jaitley — satta bazaar has a different story to tell. The satta rate for Kher last week veered around 65 paise to Bansal’s Rs 1.50. In Amritsar, it was Rs 1.30 for Jaitley as against 70 paise for the Captain. While Congressmen have, of late, developed as much dislike for punters as for psephologists, party leaders are keeping a close watch on the going rates in the satta market.

So Jaitley may lose, first of all it was a stupid idea to remove Sidhu from that seat and foist Jaitley in that seat. My grapevine tells me that Jaitley did not have any clue that Captain may be forced to contest from there by congress high command and if he had known, he may have backed.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2014/20140413/haryana.htm#7

Satta’ bazaar, a betting syndicate, is giving five seats to the BJP, two to the INLD and one to the Congress in Haryana that went to the poll on Thursday.

The ‘satta’ bazaar gives Faridabad, Gurgaon, Bhiwani, Karnal and Ambala seats to the BJP, Sirsa and Hisar to the INLD and only the Rohtak parliamentary seat to the Congress, where Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s son Deepender Singh Hooda is contesting from the ruling party.

The Sonepat and Kurukshetra seats are being considered locked in triangular contests and the ‘satta’ market is avoiding risking money on these seats.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 15 Apr 2014 01:23

pankajs wrote:

From which media/newspaper organization is the above article ?.
Are the contents in the news article true or plausible (that Junior Scindia is struggling badly in his Guna seat in MP) ?.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Apr 2014 01:25

murlairavi, What do our experts say about Harayana?

satya?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 15 Apr 2014 01:26

ramana wrote:murlairavi, What do our experts say about Harayana?

satya?

Well, I guess most of them will say 5 for BJP is a realistic possibility. But lets see what they say

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 15 Apr 2014 01:45

WTF? NDTV says 37 for BJP+SS in Maha?

I'll be doing a lungi dance on the street if they manage to get anywhere close to that.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 15 Apr 2014 01:56

37 38 is being touted since the Nanded rallies. Remember Pawar calling Modi a mental case after Amaravati rally

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 15 Apr 2014 02:01

^^^If turnouts are significantly higher, then it will be close to that. Otherwise take NDTV surveys with some skepticism.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 15 Apr 2014 02:08

^^Yeah, actual seat tally will be lower. 37 is insanely high. Not everyone who says they support NaMo, will vote for their local NDA candidate especially in the Cong-NCP strongholds of Western and Central MH. But for once I really want NDTV to be right. 37 in MH means NDA will go past 272 without difficulty.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 15 Apr 2014 02:18

The Vidharba part of MH into MP is staunchly BJP. Some surveys in March or early April were pointing toward 30+ for NDA in MH, but lets see if momentum pushes it up. So far Modi has been hitting home runs (American baseball term) in the media. A few more performances like that between now and April 17 and 24 will seal the deal.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 15 Apr 2014 03:21

Kati, SRoy & other Bengali speakers: here is some ground report from one of the volunteers and also a Zee News report. Both are positive, though the Zee report seems a little too optimistic

Good news from Bengal,

I have been in touch with Shri Rahul Sinha, President, W.Bengal BJP as well as Shri Sourav Sikdar, Nephew of Shri Tapan Sikdar, past President and now, Dum Dum constituency candidate. Sourav is co-ordinator of his Uncle's campaign. He is compiling a list of influential people all around Kolkata with their mobile numbers and suggested that we should get on the phone around first week of May.

He pointed out that there is overwhelming support for BJP amongst Presidency College students, besides all other college students and chances of BJP winning about 5/6 seats is very high. In Bengali there is a phrase called Dum Dum Dawai which is the equivalent of PITAI in Hindi. In 1857 Sepoy Mutiny had its origin in Dum Dum, So, my Friends, let the Dawai or PITAI in Bengal start from Dum Dum.

Let us bow our head to Rishi Bankim Chandra Chatterjee, creator of eternal VANDE MATARAM.

Arun Nandi

The link for the Zee news report (which is predicting 8-11 seats for BJP) is: http://znn.india.com/Img/2014/4/3/West% ... Report.pdf

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 15 Apr 2014 03:28

Paging SwamyG & other Tamil speaking volunteers

I have the TamilNadu list of numbers with me. A group of 4 of us are going to start calling the South Chennai constituency. There are numbers from other constituencies as well. I'd really appreciate it if you can volunteer your time to call for the next 10 days before the TN elections

Plz say "yes" in this forum if interested and I will get in touch

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 15 Apr 2014 03:33

Modi may be pitching for development but a cocktail of secular and religious grievances, imagined or otherwise, is setting the agenda in western UP

...
...
That month, he alleges, a temple to Sherawali Maa (an incarnation of Durga) was demolished “stealthily at night”.

“By then, the Akhilesh Yadav government was in. The police wouldn’t register our complaint. Those who demolished the temple got away scot-free and began lording it over us. We have to cross their hamlets to reach the main road. They taunted us,” Surjeet said.

“So, when these (Lok Sabha) elections came, we Hindus collectively took a call to vote for Modi. Once the other hamlets heard of our decision, they started behaving themselves.”

The people from some of the hamlets mentioned by Surjeet denied the charges, including allegations that they had a hand in the demolition.

Across the swathe of land stretching from Amroha to Pilibhit, in a sub-region of western Uttar Pradesh called Rohilkhand, the buzz is that this is a “Hindu-Muslim” election.
...
...
Among the Yadavs, a chant portraying Mulayam’s “sellout” to the minorities has gone viral in these parts.

Roughly translated, it goes: “We voted for granddad Mulayam and he bequeathed our votes to Akhilesh. We voted for Akhilesh and he gave our votes to Azam Khan.”
...
...
“Mulayam and Akhilesh took our votes but Muslims mean everything to them. They give Rs 30,000 to Muslim high school-pass girls as Kanya Vidyadhan but give our girls only Rs 10,000. They dance so much to Azam’s tune that on public platforms they only take Muslim leaders’ names but not those of Yadavs,” Veer Pal said.

“That was why we Yadavs voted for (Independent candidate) Jaya Prada in Rampur in 2009. To us she was a good Hindu who had to be protected against Azam. This time, Hindus will vote as one for the BJP to defeat Azam’s man in Rampur.”

Modi and his party may have officially positioned development as the centrepiece of their campaign but it’s “Hindutva” that underpins the new support they seem to have gained in western Uttar Pradesh.
...

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 15 Apr 2014 06:20

^^^ so it took these guys 20 years to realize mullah yadavs true colors, wonder what stopped them from seeing this through when mullah yadav fired bullets on karsevaks

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 15 Apr 2014 06:37

muraliravi wrote:^^^ so it took these guys 20 years to realize mullah yadavs true colors, wonder what stopped them from seeing this through when mullah yadav fired bullets on karsevaks

Garmi apne pichwade nahin pahunchi thee. "peacefuls" too much emboldened. Earlier at most they will cast evil eye on dalit women, now if Jaat women aten't safe then you can imagine the situation. Hence the "Gyaan".

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 15 Apr 2014 06:53

muraliravi wrote:^^^ so it took these guys 20 years to realize mullah yadavs true colors, wonder what stopped them from seeing this through when mullah yadav fired bullets on karsevaks

This is what BRF has been saying for ages now. India needs to be economic and military power, then Indic/Dharma will become powerful and very well respected.

This is what is happening now. Modi has showed Progress and Development, it has bought many 'intellectuals' and 'youth' to his side. These people have rediscovered Indicness. Along with the 'Internet Hindus', they have motivated vast swaths of land.

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 15 Apr 2014 07:07

NDTV numbers are pretty high for Maharashtra. In Maharashtra, I can think of Baramati, Solapur, Satara, Nashik, Gondia, Latur, Nanded, Osmanabad as Congress-NCP seats. Possibly, Kalyan, Thane, Mumbai South, Maval, Madha, Chandrapur as well. Some of these could flip. Pawar has taken action against the NCP's Ratnagiri unit for not supporting Rane. They are working for the Shiv Sena. All three parties are against Rane there.

The voteshare of the BBM in a couple of seats and the BSP in 4-5 seats could be crucial. They make a dent in the Congress-NCP tally in many seats which helps the NDA.

disha · Post by **disha** » 15 Apr 2014 07:21

^^ Actually I think what is going on there could be because of Athawale's and RPIs effect. Something like a local Mayawati., the vote share of dalits is going in favour of BJP. And remember for 10 years, Ramdas Athawale had a truck with NCP which stands broken now.

In this case RPI may not its own win significant seats., but the incremental vote share they bring to BJP/SS combine more than shifts the needle towards BJP/SS winning.

And in future, BJP/SS can use RPI to decimate Pawar further. Of course Atriji can confirm more on this.

Talking about the Baramati, Solapur, Satara, Nashik, Gondia, Latur, Nanded, Osmanabad seats., how much was the NCP/Cong winning margin against their nearest rival?

Added lateR:

I am giving Gondia to BJP., here is why:

2009
votes percentage
NCP Praful Patel 4,89,814 47.52
Independent Nana Patole 2,37,899 23.08
BJP Shishupal Patle 1,58,938 15.42
BSP Virendrakumar Jaiswal 68,246 6.62

2014 Candidates

NCP Praful Patel
BJP Nana Patole
AAP Prashant Mishra

Assuming the above is true, I hope AAP to cut into NCP votes by at least 2%. BJP will get 23+15+6=44% vote share right away (the independent candidate is now BJP candidate and there is no BSP candidate, with a Modi wave, the dalits are likely to gravitate towards Modi/BJP).

A high voter turnout as Atriji points out, that is an additional 10% voter turn out and Praful patel is gone!

I am giving Latur and Osmanabad to BJP as well.

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 15 Apr 2014 08:19

I would be cautious about Latur. Just big rallies won't do in Maharashtra. Top Congress and NCP leaders don't get so many people at their rallies but they win anyway. Atriji can tell us more about the RPI vote transfer and cadre coordination.

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 15 Apr 2014 08:21

The drum beats of the advancing liberation army is getting louder. People of the occupied town are now openly coming out on the streets. The occupation soldiers are now busy burning up the records of their crime, shipping back stolen wealth and consolidating behind a few garrison building which are now heavily damaged and fortified. The generals of the occupation army making frantic calls to their head quarter in distant land asking for timely arrival of evacuation transport. People know that in 4 weeks time the liberation army will be in the town and then then celebration of freedom will start on the streets. The occupation army generals and officers will then be put to war crime trials!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 15 Apr 2014 08:24

Sucheta Dalal ‏@suchetadalal 59m

Gandhi pariwar out in full force to save the family business: jagir called India! Things will get nastier now with global strings pulled too

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Apr 2014 08:30

Very Singhaesque.

niran · Post by **niran** » 15 Apr 2014 08:33

SaraLax wrote:
From which media/newspaper organization is the above article ?.
Are the contents in the news article true or plausible (that Junior Scindia is struggling badly in his Guna seat in MP) ?.

it is true, 2004 scindhia won due to back stabbing by the BJP with surnames of scindhia no not CM the other older lady.
this time around the same candidate is contesting under him BJP bagged 4 out of 4 assembly seats here junior's writ is effective onree in his bedroom.(metamorphically speaking of course)

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 15 Apr 2014 08:36

To me the NDTV's UP numbers are inflated as well.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 15 Apr 2014 08:37

muraliravi wrote:Atri ji, please explain what brings you to that conclusion. Your observations are very very sharp.
You have to subscribe sir.

You guys are behaving like the mainstream inglees media - stating outlandlish theories to make people watch/subscribe.

Again - No Behenji. No Khujli. No Motallo. No Didi. Only NaMo will be PM.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 15 Apr 2014 08:42

Muppalla wrote:37 38 is being touted since the Nanded rallies. Remember Pawar calling Modi a mental case after Amaravati rally

I do not know (or expect) whether NDA will score 37 seats in MH.. But what I do know is that while Namo is organizing rallies in lakhs, tragedy (comedy for us) is that Sharad Pawar has to organize gatherings in marriage halls.

this is the situation in western MH. Pawar never resorts to personal attacks. he is very dignified (!!) in his speeches and public talk unlike his nephew. When he has to resort to personal attacks and double-voting trick in open rally, know that he is feeling the heat.

Pawar is truly shocked at the extent of hatred and fascination of modi among aam abduls. The situation is that only Baramati and Satara are sure seats for NCP-INC in western MH. Gondia is most probably gone for Congis. Even Baramati will be very tough fight for Supriya Sule this time around. Mahadeo Jankar of NDA is giving her very tough fight.

37-42 would have been easily possible if there wasn't any RT-UT and NG-GP rivalry. given the state of affairs, I still keep my prediction at 28-30 for NDA in MH with BJP scoring around 18-19 seats.

I will be dancing on the streets on 16th anyways. If they win 37 in MH, then I will be dancing with glass of most expensive single malt that I can afford, else it will be ordinary masala chhaas in my hand onlee..

Vidarbha is clean sweep. I gave the vote percentages few page ago.

As far as RPI is concerned, they are very happy and pleased that BJP sent Athavale to RS instead of Javdekar. A large section of dalit vote will be coming to BJP this time (at least 20-25%) of dalits. many dalits in urban centers vote for Shivsena anyways. Plus there is this curious rise of bharatiya awam party of the peaceful ppl who supports BJP. Most of the BAP will be inconsequential but it will break section of peaceful votes.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 15 Apr 2014 09:07

New Indian Express ‏@NewIndianXpress 2h

BJP for #KiranBedi as Delhi's Chief Ministerial Candidate - http://tnie.in/1m4K4XJ @thekiranbedi

The BJP is likely to project former super cop Kiran Bedi as its chief ministerial candidate in Delhi, considering that its state unit president Harsh Vardhan could be out of the race if he wins the Chandni Chowk constituency, from where he is expecting to get elected to the 16th Lok Sabha.

The BJP is toying with the idea of asking Bedi to come on board and join the party so that she can be projected as the face of Delhi, when the state Assembly polls are expected to be held after the Lok Sabha polls that ends in mid-May.

A senior state BJP leader said that the former IPS officer was offered the Delhi chief ministerial post before the last Assembly elections held in December, but she had declined the offer.

gashish · Post by **gashish** » 15 Apr 2014 09:16

AjitK wrote:I would be cautious about Latur. Just big rallies won't do in Maharashtra. Top Congress and NCP leaders don't get so many people at their rallies but they win anyway. Atriji can tell us more about the RPI vote transfer and cadre coordination.

Saar, I am going to go on limb and put Latur in NaMo's kitty, despite Latur went saffron way only once since 77.
Local political vaccuum after Deshmukh's death plus the seat becoming reserved has made infighting between local maratha and lingayat satraps less intense. Wherever there is political vaccum, NaMo occupies it. The win margin would be slender though. So moi has travelled to desh just to cast my vote in latur, to do my tiny bit...

!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 15 Apr 2014 09:21

Standing alone for the first time, Patnaik battles ‘Modi wave’

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/o ... 912651.ece

It is for the first time that Odisha Chief Minister and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) president Naveen Patnaik is fighting the simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections alone. Surprisingly, he is having a tough time in coastal Odisha, one of his party’s strongholds.

As the coastal and northern regions of the State are scheduled to go to the polls on April 17, Mr. Patnaik is leaving no stone unturned by addressing a series of public meetings seeking votes for his party nominees. There was no number-2 leader in the party to share his burden, and he has engaged many Odia film stars to draw crowds at party rallies.

...
Mr. Patnaik and his lieutenants, however, are facing an uphill task since BJP had emerged as the third major contender across the State by riding the ‘Modi wave’, even though the main opposition, Congress, had remained weak due to factionalism.

...
The infighting within BJD is affecting the party’s prospects in at least 10 Assembly constituencies. Many of his party’s Lok Sabha members, Ministers and sitting legislators are also facing the anti-incumbency factor.

niran · Post by **niran** » 15 Apr 2014 09:42

fanne wrote:So in Bihar BJP loses Aurnagabd and Sasaram, and win the other 2. In next phase tough seat for BJP are - Patliputra, Kishenganj and few others.

says who? Saar.
Sasaram gonna be close win margin by less than 10,000 votes and BJP has an edge.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 15 Apr 2014 10:38

No kafir. Modi will lose onlee

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 15 Apr 2014 10:39

Looks like INS Amit Shah has torpedoed the hell out of occupation navy in UP.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 15 Apr 2014 10:42

^^:D Yup, INS Amit shah will maintain defensive deployment in the UP bay while prepping for fresh greenfield ventures along the Kalinga and Banga coast.... far away, even the pawarful navy is feeling the heat of a possible last minute deployment to the marathwada lagoon...

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 15 Apr 2014 11:45

Times of India ‏@timesofindia 3h

Former CAG Vinod Rai defers memoirs till June - http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 755017.cms …

Kanad Bandyopadhyay ‏@BKanad 3h

After Sanjaya Baru and PC Parakh, now RAW officer RK Yadav set to release book http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-af ... ok-1978372 …

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Apr 2014 12:18

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/e ... ce=taboola

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Apr 2014 12:20

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 15 Apr 2014 12:23

Karnataka looks set to go the Congi way with them getting more than the BJP. Karnataka always manages to get on the wrong side of the party ruling the center and so it will be this time also.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Apr 2014 12:25

if anyone is still watching ndtv, are they in damage control mode now with barkha toning down her activities and visibility and prannoy roy now more coming to the fore as the reasonable and fair n balanced coverage person?
that tipping point might come soon around middle of next week maybe.

===
considering the BJPs track record in KA, I would consider 50:50 to be a bonus. it will need some time and stability for BJP to repair its damaged reputation here. fortunately the congi regime is not that great in any respect, so the opportunity is there always.