Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stability

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Ananth
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Ananth »

ShauryaT wrote:
Acharya wrote:UK Babus also made sure that gullible US administration officials including SoS Dulles believe that 70% of all the British India Troops in the WWII were Muslim soldiers. This gullibility of the US officials and US public was used by both UK and Pakistan to create a false image of India in US for a long time.
I think Churchill was the direct source of that number. The truth was close to half of it, yet a higher proportion of the all India population, primarily due to the racist policies of the British that largely recruited such troops from the Punjab and United Provinces and other areas of the North.
Shaurya is correct. According Narendra Sarila's book, Churchill made that claim to increase the relative importance of the Muslims in the eyes of Roosevelt and present the picture of conflicting groups of people with Brits "selfless" dedication in preserving the sanity. I am reading that book. It should be one of the must-read books for BRFites. Not only is it a good historical text, but the incisively analytical. From what I have read it shows how the INC leadership was gamed, sophisticatedly I may add, by the Brits. Of course the essential handicap of information aided the Brits, but tactical and strategic mistakes by Indian leaders, ( even V. P. Menon points to it), contributed to problem. Some might say its the cost of freedom, and its up to us, the future Indians, to make up for that deficit.
wrdos
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Why Vietnam loves and hates China

Post by wrdos »

Why Vietnam loves and hates China
By Andrew Forbes

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_ ... 6Ae01.html

For more than 2,000 years, Vietnam's development as a nation has been marked
by one fixed and immutable factor - the proximity of China. The
relationship between the two countries is in many ways a family affair, with
all the closeness of shared values and bitterness of close rivalries.

No country in Southeast Asia is culturally closer to China than Vietnam, and
no other country in the region has spent so long fending off Chinese
domination, often at a terrible cost in lives, economic development and
political compromise.

China has been Vietnam's blessing and Vietnam's curse. It remains an
intrusive cultural godfather, the giant to the north that is "always there".
Almost a thousand years of Chinese occupation, between the Han conquest of
Nam Viet in the 2nd century BC and the reassertion of Vietnamese
independence as Dai Viet in AD 967, marked the Vietnamese so deeply that
they became, in effect, an outpost of Chinese civilization in Southeast Asia.

While the other countries of Indochina are Theravada Buddhist, sharing
cultural links with South Asia, Vietnam derived its predominant religion - a
mix of Mahayana Buddhism, Taoism and Confucianism popularly known as tam
giao or "Three Religions"- from China. Until the introduction of romanized
quoc ngu script in the 17th century, Vietnamese scholars wrote in Chinese
characters or in chu nho, a Vietnamese derivative of Chinese characters.

Over the centuries, Vietnam developed as a smaller version of the Middle
Kingdom, a centralized, hierarchical state ruled by an all-powerful emperor
living in a Forbidden City based on its namesake in Beijing and administered
by a highly educated Confucian bureaucracy.

Both countries are deeply conscious of the cultural ties that bind them
together, and each is still deeply suspicious of the other. During the long
centuries of Chinese occupation, the Vietnamese enthusiastically embraced
many aspects of Chinese civilization, while at the same time fighting with
an extraordinary vigor to maintain their cultural identity and regain their
national independence.

During the Tang Dynasty (6th-9th centuries AD), Vietnamese guerrillas
fighting the Chinese sang a martial song that emphasized their separate
identity in the clearest of terms:

Fight to keep our hair long,
Fight to keep our teeth black,
Fight to show that the heroic southern country can never be defeated.

For their part, the Chinese recognized the Vietnamese as a kindred people,
to be offered the benefits of higher Chinese civilization and, ultimately,
the rare privilege of being absorbed into the Chinese polity.

On the other hand, as near family, they were to be punished especially
severely if they rejected Chinese standards or rebelled against Chinese
control. This was made very clear in a remarkable message sent by the Song
Emperor Taizong to King Le Hoan in AD 979, just over a decade after Vietnam
first reasserted its independence.

Like a stern headmaster, Taizong appealed to Le Hoan to see reason and
return to the Chinese fold: "Although your seas have pearls, we will throw
them into the rivers, and though your mountains produce gold, we will throw
it into the dust. We do not covet your valuables. You fly and leap like
savages, we have horse-drawn carriages. You drink through your noses, we
have rice and wine. Let us change your customs. You cut your hair, we wear
hats; when you talk, you sound like birds. We have examinations and books.
Let us teach you the knowledge of the proper laws ... Do you not want to
escape from the savagery of the outer islands and gaze upon the house of
civilization? Do you want to discard your garments of leaves and grass and
wear flowered robes embroidered with mountains and dragons? Have you
understood?"

In fact Le Hoan understood Taizong very well and, like his modern successors
, knew exactly what he wanted from China - access to its culture and
civilization without coming under its political control or jeopardizing
Vietnamese freedom in any way. This attitude infuriated Taizong, as it would
generations of Chinese to come.

In 1407, the Ming Empire managed to reassert Chinese control over its
stubbornly independent southern neighbor, and Emperor Yongle - no doubt, to
his mind, in the best interests of the Vietnamese - imposed a policy of
enforced Sinicization. Predictably enough, Vietnam rejected this "kindness"
and fought back, expelling the Chinese yet again in 1428.

Yongle was apoplectic when he learned of their rebellion. Vietnam was not
just another tributary state, he insisted, but a former province that had
once enjoyed the benefits of Chinese civilization and yet had wantonly
rejected this privilege. In view of this close association - Yongle used the
term mi mi or "intimately related" - Vietnam's rebellion was particularly
heinous and deserved the fiercest of punishments.

China on top
Sometimes a strongly sexual imagery creeps into this "intimate relationship"
, with Vietnam, the weaker partner, a victim of



Chinese violation. In AD 248, the Vietnamese heroine Lady Triu, who led a
popular uprising against the Chinese occupation, proclaimed: "I want to ride
the great winds, strike the sharks on the high seas, drive out the invaders
, reconquer the nation, burst the bonds of slavery and never bow to become
anyone's concubine."

Her defiant choice of words was more than just symbolic. Vietnam has long
been a source of women for the Chinese sex trade. In Tang times, the Chinese
poet Yuan Chen wrote appreciatively of "slave girls of Viet, sleek, of
buttery flesh", while today the booming market for Vietnamese women in
Taiwan infuriates and humiliates many Vietnamese men.

It's instructive, then, that in his 1987 novel Fired Gold Vietnamese author
Nguyen Huy Thiep writes, "The most significant characteristics of this
country are its smallness and weakness. She is like a virgin girl raped by
Chinese civilization. The girl concurrently enjoys, despises and is
humiliated by the rape."

This Chinese belief that Vietnam is not just another nation, but rather a
member of the family - almost Chinese, aware of the blessings of Chinese
civilization, but somehow stubbornly refusing, century after century, to
become Chinese - has persisted down to the present day.

During the Second Indochina War, Chinese propaganda stressed that Vietnam
and China were "as close as the lips and the teeth". After the US defeat,
however, Vietnam once again showed its independence, allying itself with the
Soviet Union, in 1978-79, invading neighboring Cambodia and overthrowing
China's main ally in Southeast Asia, the Khmer Rouge.

Once again Chinese fury knew no bounds, and Beijing determined to teach the
"ungrateful" Vietnamese a lesson. Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese leader, openly
denounced the Vietnamese as "the hooligans of the East". According to one
Thai diplomat: "The moment the topic of Vietnam came up, you could see
something change in Deng Xiaoping.

"His hatred was just visceral. He spat forcefully into his spittoon and
called the Vietnamese 'dogs'." Acting on Deng's orders, the Chinese army
invaded Vietnam in 1979, capturing five northern provincial capitals before
systematically demolishing them and withdrawing to China after administering
a symbolic "lesson".

But who taught a lesson to whom? Beijing sought to force Hanoi to withdraw
its frontline forces from Cambodia, but the Vietnamese didn't engage these
forces in the struggle, choosing instead to confront the Chinese with
irregulars and provincial militia. Casualties were about equal, and China
lost considerable face, as well as international respect, as a result of its
invasion.

Over the millennia, actions like this have taught the Vietnamese a recurring
lesson about China. It's there, it's big, and it won't go away, so appease
it without yielding whenever possible, and fight it with every resource
available whenever necessary.

Just as Chinese rulers have seen the Vietnamese as ingrates and hooligans,
so the Vietnamese have seen the Chinese as arrogant and aggressive, a power
to be emulated at all times, mollified in times of peace, and fiercely
resisted in times of war.

In 1946, 1,700 years after Lady Triu's declaration, another great Vietnamese
patriot, Ho Chi Minh, warned his Viet Minh colleagues in forceful terms
against using Chinese Nationalist troops in the north as a buffer against
the return of the French: "You fools! Don't you realize what it means if the
Chinese remain? Don't you remember your history?

"The last time the Chinese came, they stayed a thousand years. The French
are foreigners. They are weak. Colonialism is dying. The white man is
finished in Asia. But if the Chinese stay now, they will never go. As for me
, I prefer to sniff French shit for five years than to eat Chinese shit for
the rest of my life."

Yet Ho was an ardent admirer of Chinese civilization, fluent in Mandarin, a
skilled calligrapher who wrote Chinese poetry, a close friend and colleague
of Chinese leaders Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai. Ho wasn't as much anti-Chinese
as he was pro-Vietnamese. It was his deep understanding of and respect for
China that enabled him to recognize, clearly and definitively, the menace
that "a close family relationship" with the giant to the north posed, and
continues to pose, for Vietnam's independence and freedom.

It's ironic, then, that as the current Vietnamese leadership strive to
develop their economy along increasingly capitalist lines while at the same
time retaining their monopoly on state power, the country they most admire
and seek to emulate is, as always, the one they most fear.

Andrew Forbes is editor of CPA Media as well as a correspondent in its
Thailand bureau. He has recently completed National Geographic Traveler:
Shanghai , and the above is an excerpt from his forthcoming book A Phoenix
Reborn: Travels in New Vietnam.

(Copyright 2007 Andrew Forbes.)
Raju

Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Raju »

US-UK Intel Readies Turkestan Islamic Terror Gambit
For Beijing Olympics
By Webster G. Tarpley
8-2-8

Washington, August 1, 2008 ­ Reliable Australian intelligence sources have issued a warning that US-UK intelligence is attempting to mount a false flag terror operation against China, quite possibly featuring a gaggle of patsies calling themselves the "Turkestan Islamic Party," at the upcoming Beijing Olympics, where the eyes of the world will be concentrated next week. The goal of the operation will be to duplicate or surpass the bloodbaths the Mexico City 1968 and/or Munich 1972 summer games. Commandant Seyfullah of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) claims in a video tirade displayed by a US company's website to represent the Turkish Moslems of Sinkiang province or Chinese Turkestan, where the Anglo-Americans have long sponsored an abortive separatist movement. Patsy leader Seyfullah and his Turkestan Islamic Party have been indirectly mentioned twice over the past two years by Ayman Zawahiri, the veteran British agent who functions as the real leader of "al Qaeda," in effect sheep- dipping the little known TIP in the vast pool of "al Qaeda" notoriety. If the planned operation actually takes place, the current Chinese leadership will ­ in the hopes of the plotters -- loose face and forfeit the mandate of heaven, the prerequisites for continued rule. This could then be the prelude to the installation of a new Chinese government far less committed to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and to cooperation with Russia. It might be a first step towards splitting the SCO and turning Beijing against Moscow, which is the current goal of Anglo-American grand strategy.

An article from the Sydney Morning Herald describing the general outlines of the danger is appended. The Turkestan Islamic Party claims to have already organized serious terror attacks in Shanghai, on the mainland coast opposite Taiwan, in Kunming in southwest China, and in Guangzhou (Canton in south China, near Hong Kong. Despite ample international attention to the Beijing Olympics by the controlled media, these considerable terror attacks have scarcely been reported, suggesting that some form of information management regime may be in place, as it was before 9/11.

The threatened Olympic terror event may have a second phase, designed to prevent a wave of world sympathy for the Chinese and other victims of whatever happens. An attempt to disrupt the world- wide operations of the internet may ensue, presented as the retaliation or riposte by the Chinese for what has been done to them by the foreign devils. Logic bombs or more sophisticated means could be used to disrupt the world-wide internet, shutting it down in whole or in part for days or weeks. International financial transactions might also become chaotic. Someone might begin dumping US Treasury paper, with the controlled western media blaming the Chinese government, even though the prospect of any direct or immediate Chinese government retaliation is remote. The massive hardships that can be inflicted by computer and cyber-based disruption would be used to whip up resentment and hatred in the west against the Chinese, changing the world strategic climate dramatically.

Some patsy group calling itself a Chinese secret society might announce that it had finally become fed up with the arrogance, the interference, and the aggression of the Anglo-Americans, and that it had decided to strike back on its own. This would allow the US and UK to demanded that the Chinese government hand over these malefactors in a humiliating gesture, leading to an escalating diplomatic and strategic crisis. These are but a few crude hypotheses drawn from the immense pool of possibilities. In many of these we see that the scope of terror could suddenly become much larger, due to the immense strategic potential on the Anglo- American and Chinese sides.

The direct terror attack may also be supplemented by large scale provocations, chaos and confusion operations, and mass demonstrations by Falun Gong fanatics, by Tibetans loyal to the feudal latifundist and US-UK intelligence asset who calls himself the Dalai Lama, and/or by democracy and human rights activists assembled by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and various NGOs in the orbit of US-UK and NATO intelligence. But the vigilance of the Chinese regime may be enough to defeat these plans.

A POSSIBLE PHASE CHANGE OF TERRORISM

If any such attack occurs, it would represent the beginning of a whole new phase of false flag terrorism on a world scale. From the mid-1990s until about 2005-2006, patsy organizations like "al Qaeda" in many cases received the blame for false flag terror attacks carried out by the US-UK invisible government networks against their own countries or their own national assets abroad, as in the case of the 9/11 attacks in the US and the 7/7/2005 attacks in London. The goal of these operations was to whip up hysteria in the western countries, and to provide pretexts for direct aggression under neocon auspices against Afghanistan and Iraq. There was also a parallel track of NATO-backed Chechen terrorist attacks against Russia. Henceforth, patsy groups like the TIP are to be used increasingly against "enemy states" like China and Russia, the two targets who have gone to the top of the list, displacing the earlier focus on the far less significant Iran and North Korea. Any attacks by the TIP on Chinese territory will of course represent acts of war by the US-UK against China, and could easily generate incalculable consequences over time. Under the Brzezinski Plan, the US-UK will be messing with the biggest country in the world, and one which comes equipped with ICBMs and H-bombs that can strike US territory.

Pentagon boss Robert Gates, a Brzezinski man going back to the Carter NSC in 1977-79, said this week that irregular warfare and soft power are the wave of the immediate future, and that may be exactly what we are about to get in spectacular form. This speech may well have been a signal that something big and very messy in the irregular warfare department is about to happen at the Olympics. "Al Qaeda," the CIA's Islamic Legion, traces its origins back to the Carter-Brzezinski years, just after the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in response to Brzezinski's playing of the Islamic fundamentalism card against them.

A TOTALLY NEW HIT LIST FOR THE PRINCIPALS' COMMITTEE

The new target list is being dictated by the Principals' Committee, which currently rules in Washington. Among the Principals are Rice at State, Gates at Defense, Paulson at Treasury, and Admiral Mullen as head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, plus some others. This group is now running the US government. Bush and Cheney are little better than figureheads, lame ducks who have virtually ceased to influence government affairs as they fade away. The top neocons are either in jail, like Lord Conrad Black, or running for cover. The playbook for the Principals is the Brzezinski Plan, with its focus on working towards a global showdown with Russia and China. A US-UK attack on Iran is now virtually excluded, but instead large-scale bombing and preparations for a land invasion of northwest Pakistan are proceeding apace. The pretext cited here is the search for Bin Laden and the need to combat the Taliban, but the real goal is to start the breakup of Pakistan into five or six petty states ­ because Pakistan is a Chinese ally, and all allies and trading partners of China are presently being targeted for regime change, destabilization, and Balkanization, from Sudan to Zimbabwe to Burma to Venezuela to Pakistan. It is time for opponents of false flag terrorism to ditch their maps of the Persian Gulf in favor of much larger world maps, with special attention for the geopolitical features of the Eurasian landmass discussed by Obama backer Brzezinski in his book, The Grand Chessboard.

The atmosphere in Washington today is eerily reminiscent of the final years of Iran-contra, when many personalities who had become too openly compromised in these picaresque operations were liquidated. The Iran-contra networks had to be cleaned up, and many heads rolled. The past weeks have brought word that bacteriological warfare expert Dr. Steven Hatfill, the FBI's former person interest in the October 2001 anthrax attacks, has been taken care of with a $6 million damages award. His former biowar colleague Bruce Ivins was found dead this morning near Fort Detrick in Frederick, Maryland, in what has been ruled a suicide. The death of Ivins comes in the wake of another purported suicide, that of Deborah Palfrey, the so-called DC Madam. Are these inconvenient persons in fact being suicided to keep them quiet? Tonight there is word that Ayman Zawahiri, the MI-6 man at the top of "al Qaeda" may be either dead or seriously wounded. If Zawahiri is dead or knocked out, this event may be comparable to the execution of Timothy McVeigh on June 11, 2001, which officially closed the era of terrorism under right wing anarchist cover in the US, just before a new phase of false flag operations began three months later, on September 11, 2001.

August 8, 2008, the formal opening ceremonies of the 2008 Beijing summer games, emerges as a possible date for some attempted action in the context described. In a paper which should be read in conjunction with this article, Gillian Norman makes a case for the occult significance of 8-8-8 in the irrationalist numerology which may be considered meaningful by certain rogue network factions. But the events in question could occur at almost any time over the next several weeks.

Those who mobilized in the spring of 2007 to stop Operation Bite, the planned Good Friday US-UK attack on Iran, or who spread the word of the Kennebunkport Warning in late August 2007, are urged mobilize now on a much larger scale to inoculate world publics against which may now be in the offing. The US, Europe, and Japan need good relations with China, the world's largest country. Peaceful coexistence, not a new round of inter-imperialist rivalry, is required. No band of desperados can be allowed to initiate a Sino-American confrontation under cover of a new false flag provocation.
----

According to the Sydney Morning Herald of Australia,
Muslim group declares war on Olympics
July 27, 2008

A CHINESE terrorist organisation has warned it will create havoc at next month's Olympics and has claimed responsibility for a deadly Shanghai bus bombing in May. A group monitoring terrorism threats on the internet said Commander Seyfullah of the Turkestan Islamic Party claimed responsibility for several attacks in China less than a fortnight out from the Olympics. "Through this blessed jihad in Yunnan this time, the Turkestan Islamic Party warns China one more time," Seyfullah said in a video dated July 23, a transcript from a US-based intelligence centre shows. "Our aim is to target the most critical points related to the Olympics. We will try to attack Chinese central cities severely using the tactics that have never been employed," he said. The warnings come just a day after Chinese police claimed they cracked a terrorist cell planning to attack Shanghai Stadium where the Australian men's soccer team will open its Olympic campaign on August 7. Seyfullah claimed responsibility for the May 5 Shanghai bus bombing, which killed three; another Shanghai attack; an attack on police in Wenzhou on July 17 using an explosives-laden tractor; bombing of a Guangzhou plastics factory on July 17, and bombings of three buses in Yunnan province on July 21.
(http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/muslim ... 03337.html)
svinayak
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by svinayak »

Ananth wrote:
ShauryaT wrote:I think Churchill was the direct source of that number. The truth was close to half of it, yet a higher proportion of the all India population, primarily due to the racist policies of the British that largely recruited such troops from the Punjab and United Provinces and other areas of the North.
Shaurya is correct. According Narendra Sarila's book, Churchill made that claim to increase the relative importance of the Muslims in the eyes of Roosevelt and present the picture of conflicting groups of people with Brits "selfless" dedication in preserving the sanity. I am reading that book. It should be one of the must-read books for BRFites. Not only is it a good historical text, but the incisively analytical. From what I have read it shows how the INC leadership was gamed, sophisticatedly I may add, by the Brits. Of course the essential handicap of information aided the Brits, but tactical and strategic mistakes by Indian leaders, ( even V. P. Menon points to it), contributed to problem. Some might say its the cost of freedom, and its up to us, the future Indians, to make up for that deficit.
Churchill could be the direct source of that number. I was referring to the information being accepted by the Americans across all department after the UK babus gave these figures during training.
NRao
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by NRao »

The pretext cited here is the search for Bin Laden and the need to combat the Taliban, but the real goal is to start the breakup of Pakistan into five or six petty states ­ because Pakistan is a Chinese ally, and all allies and trading partners of China are presently being targeted for regime change, destabilization, and Balkanization, from Sudan to Zimbabwe to Burma to Venezuela to Pakistan.
Don't know if that will happen, but may the sun shine on this thought and make it blossom. Pakistan is a given from Indian PoV, Burma and actually BD should be next on the list, followed very closely by Northern Somalia.

From Pakistan is Kashmir, Burma and DB is Chittagong Tracts and sliver of coastal Burma - with control over Northern Burma (road and river access), and, of course top 1/3rd of Northern Somalia.

Just noticed Indian aid to A'stan - nearing $1.2 Billion. Must route similar to SL too. That should complete the picture.
NRao
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by NRao »

I wonder how many ways does China define "former province". I have to expect gifting a few water buffaloes and donkeys may trigger this thought.
Raju

Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Raju »

Is it possible Pakistan is refusing to toe unkil's Brzezinski plan for China during olympics due to possible repurcussions from China ? And thus unkil pressurising it on it's western borders.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ld5hSycB1_w
svinayak
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by svinayak »

Raju,
Take out China topic out of this thread. This thread is for great game and includes Tibet only. It is not a geopolitical thread.
Same for wrdos link for China post.
ramana
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ramana »

A couple of apparently unrelated links:

Gandhi in South Africa

Smuts-Gandhi Agreement of 1914

Think about it as to how they are related to the topic.
wrdos
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by wrdos »

NRao wrote:I wonder how many ways does China define "former province". I have to expect gifting a few water buffaloes and donkeys may trigger this thought.
Then it is called a tributary state. Former province means areas once directly governed by Chinese as any other inland provinces, e.g. Guangdong or Shanghai.

There are only 2 current independent nations which were once a China's former province, Vietnam and Korea. Vietnam was from 2xxB.C. to 9xx AD, and Korea from 1xxBC to 3xx AD.

Another interesting fact, Vietnam and Korea are also the only 2 nations where China had participated in fact every foreign war happened there, from the beginning of their history to the past 20th century, against them or at their side. Maybe most civil wars should also be included.
wrdos
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by wrdos »

Acharya wrote:Raju,
Take out China topic out of this thread. This thread is for great game and includes Tibet only. It is not a geopolitical thread.
Same for wrdos link for China post.
OK, I will shut up.
Arun_S
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Arun_S »

Pre-Olympics Jihadi Terrorist Strike In Xinjiang - International Terrorism Monitor---Paper No. 424
Paper no. 2795 04-Aug.-2008

by B. Raman

Sixteen border police guards of China's Ministry of Public Security were killed and 16 others injured when two unidentified terrorists, who came in a truck, jumped out of it outside their barracks compound near Kashgar(Chinese name Kashi) in the Xinjiang province at 8 AM on August 4,2008, and threw hand-grenades at a group of police guards doing their morning physical exercise. After throwing the hand-grenades, they took out two knives and attacked some of the injured policemen before they could be over-powered and captured. Fourteen police guards died on the spot and two others succumbed to their injuries subsequently. According to one report, the terrorists tried to slit the throats of the injured police guards before they were overpowered. It was not an attack of suicide terrorism. The terrorists did not try to kill themselves before they were overpowered and arrested.

2. The Kashgar area has been in a state of ferment since July 9, 2008, when the Chinese authorities announced the public execution of two Uighurs whose names (Chinese version, not their original ethnic names) were given out by them as Muheteer Setiwalidi and Abdulwaili Yiming after they had been convicted by a Kashgar court on November 9, 2007, on charges of separatist activities, attending a terrorist training camp and manufacturing explosives. According to the announcement, the court had awarded three other Uighurs suspended death sentences and sentenced 12 other Uighurs to various terms of imprisonment. All of them were accused of being members of the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan (IMET). They were reported to have joined the IMET in August 2005 and were arrested by the Police in January, 2007. The public announcement of the sentences awarded to the 17 Uighurs came a day after the police of Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang, forcibly entered a flat to arrest 15 Uighurs, who were also projected as members of the IMET. Five of them were killed by the police when they allegedly resisted arrest. The Chinese also ordered the closure of 40 mosques in Xinjiang on the ground that they had been started illegally.

3.The Chinese authorities have not yet revealed the identities of the two terrorists who carried out the attack of August 4. They are presumed to be Uighurs, but normally the Uighurs do not follow the modus operandi of slitting the throats of their victims. This is the typical MO of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU),the Islamic Jihad Union (IMU), another Uzbeck organisation, and the Pakistani terrorist organisations as well as of Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

4. The attacked border post was near the border with Tajikistan. The two terrorists are suspected to have infiltrated into the area from Tajikistan. The IMET, which is the main organisation of the anti-Beijing Uighurs, the IMU, the IJU and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) of Pakistan had operated in the bordering areas of Tajikistan in the past. Before 9/11, the HUJI used to have a training camp in Tajikistan for training recruits from Xinjiang and the Central Asian Republics.

5. In January,2008, the Ministry of Public Security had claimed to have neutralised an Uighur sleeper cell in Urumqi. This was followed on March 7, 2008, by an aborted attempt by three Uighurs---one of them a woman--- to blow up a civil aviation plane going from Urumqi to Beijing with the help of gasoline concealed inside a soft drink can, which had been smuggled into the plane. The attempt was thwarted by alert security guards on board the plane. The fact that the airport security at Urumchi allowed the can to be carried---- when all over the world there is a ban on such cans and bottles being carried--- spoke poorly of the physical security at some Chinese airports,

6. The 'News" of Pakistan reported online on March 21, 2008, that two of the suspects arrested---- a woman and a man--- travelled with Pakistani passports. The woman was described as an Uighur living in Pakistan and trained in a Pakistani jihadi camp and the man as a Central Asian (Uzbeck?). The third person, who escaped, but was subsequently arrested, was described as a Pakistani, who had masterminded the plot. The meagre facts given out by the Chinese authorities about the thwarted plot indicated deficiencies in the physical security set-up in China. It is such deficiencies, which the jihadi terrorists wanting to disrupt the Olympics will exploit.

7. There was a demonstration against the Chinese authorities at Khotan in the Xinjiang province on March 23, 2008. About 1,000 Uighurs, including many women, participated in the demonstration. The protest was triggered off by two events. Firstly, the alleged death in the custody of the Ministry of Public Security of Mutallip Hajim, a wealthy jade trader and popular philanthropist, who had been arrested on a charge of belonging to the sleeper cell discovered in January, 2008. Secondly, the anger of the local women over a long-standing order banning women from wearing scarves over their heads. Many of the Uighur women, who participated in the demonstration, defiantly covered their heads with scarves. According to a statement from the Khotan government in the Xinjiang region, "extremist forces" tried to incite an uprising in a local market place on March 23. "A small number of elements... tried to incite splittism, create disturbances in the market place and even trick the masses into an uprising," an official statement issued by the authorities said. It added: "Our police immediately intervened to prevent this and are dealing with it in accordance with the law." The local authorities undertook house-to-house searches in the area looking for extremist suspects. Over 100 Uighur Muslims were detained for interrogation.

8.The fact that the two terrorists could mount the attack on August 4 despite the round-up of over a hundred suspected Uighur militants by the Chinese Police since the beginning of this year underlines the continuing weaknesses of the Chinese Ministry of Public Security, which is responsible for internal intelligence, The Ministry was taken by surprise in Tibet in March when there was a revolt by Tibetan monks and youth. Now, it has been taken by surprise by the Uighur terrorist strike. Its continuing weaknesses should be a matter of concern to the organisers of the Olympics.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: [email protected])
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

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The short answer is the British thought they could create a stable place for themsleves/West to launch military ops into central Asia as needed and that place carved out of greater India and called Pakistan.

No doubt Asian stability rests on stability of India and they wanted to control Asian stability through Pakistan. This explains the high weight accorded to Pakistan despite its poor numbers. The turd in the punchbowl turned out when Zia resorted to Islamism as the identity maker for TSP and its military.

The Indian states accession and subsequent moves- Hyderabad to Goa were part of India's moves to get back. Then came 1962 which was political setback but got back into the game in 1971.

Non-alignment was LSE type of movement to keep India out of the game. After end of Cold War, India is entering the game for her own interests. No game can be sustained without buy in from the people and by mere bureaucratic whims.

Gandhi's pact with Jan Smuts enabeld him to come back to India and lead the Freedom Movement and thus bring India back into the game.

Are we ready to start a ppt to describe the game and Indian interests?
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Treaties during the interwar period gives a clue how the fate of the nations change dramatically
Germany was able to renegotiate its space with this treaty after rearmament and led to British losing its empire due to WWII
NPT and NSG could be considered similar to these kind of treaties.

Locarno Treaties

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Locarno_Treaties

The Locarno Treaties were seven agreements negotiated at Locarno, Switzerland on 5 October – 16 October 1925 and formally signed in London on December 1, in which the World War I Western European Allied powers and the new states of central and Eastern Europe sought to secure the post-war territorial settlement, in return normalizing relations with defeated Germany (which was, by this time, the Weimar Republic). Locarno divided borders in Europe into two categories: western, which were guaranteed by Locarno treaties, and eastern borders (of Germany), which were open for revision.[1].

Background


The Locarno discussion arose from exchanges of notes between Britain, France and Germany over the summer of 1925 following German foreign minister Gustav Stresemann's February 9 proposal for a reciprocal of his country's western frontiers as established under the unfavourable 1919 Treaty of Versailles, as a means of facilitating Germany's diplomatic rehabilitation among the western powers.

Parties and agreement

The principal treaty concluded at Locarno was the "Rhineland Pact" between Germany, France, Belgium, Britain, and Italy. The first three signatories undertook not to attack each other, with the latter two acting as guarantors. In the event of aggression by any of the first three states against another, all other parties were to assist the country under attack.

Germany also signed arbitration conventions with France and Belgium and meaningless arbitration treaties with Poland and Czechoslovakia, undertaking to refer disputes to an arbitration tribunal or to the Permanent Court of International Justice.

France signed further treaties with Poland and Czechoslovakia, pledging mutual assistance in the event of conflict with Germany. These essentially reaffirmed existing treaties of alliance concluded by France with Poland on 19 February 1921 and with Czechoslovakia on 25 January 1924.

Effect

The Locarno Treaties were regarded as the keystone of the improved western European diplomatic climate of 1924-1930, introducing a hope for international peace, typically called the "spirit of Locarno". This spirit was seen in Germany's admission to the League of Nations, the international organization established under the Versailles treaty to promote world peace and co-operation, and in the subsequent withdrawal (completed in June 1930) of Allied troops from Germany's western Rhineland.

In contrast, in Poland, the public humiliation received by Polish diplomats was one of contributing factors to the fall of the Grabski cabinet. Locarno contributed to the worsening of atmosphere between Poland and France (despite the French-Polish alliance), and introduced distrust between Poland and Western countries [2]. Locarno divided borders in Europe in two categories: those guaranteed by Locarno, and others, which were free for revision. In words of Józef Beck: "Germany was officially asked to attack the east, in return for peace in the west"[3]. The failure at Locarno may be also one of contributing factor in decision of Józef Piłsudski to overthrow parliamentary democracy in Poland [4]. With regards to Locarno, Piłsudski would say "every honest Pole spits when he hear this word [Locarno]".[1] Later, when a French ambassador assured him France would always back Poland and stand up to Germany, Piłsudski, foreseeing the appeasement, would say: "No, no, believe me, you will back down, really, you will."[2]

One notable exception from the Locarno arrangements was, however, the Soviet Union, which saw western détente as potentially deepening its own political isolation in Europe, in particular by detaching Germany from her own understanding with Moscow under the April 1922 Treaty of Rapallo. Political tensions also continued throughout the period in eastern Europe. Therefore this treaty made Germany pay $50 million dollars to the Soviet Union.

The Locarno spirit did not survive the revival of German nationalism from 1930. Proposals in 1934 for an "eastern Locarno" pact securing Germany's eastern frontiers foundered on German opposition and on Poland's insistence that her eastern borders should be covered by any western guarantee of her borders. Germany formally repudiated her Locarno undertakings in sending troops into the demilitarized Rhineland on 7 March 1936.

In both 1925 and 1926 the Nobel Peace Prize was given to the lead negotiators of the treaty, going to Sir Austen Chamberlain in 1925 and jointly to Aristide Briand and Gustav Stresemann in 1926.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by jamwal »

If this ETIM in China really exists, why are we hearing about it only now? Where were they before Olymipcs?
Are they for real or just Chinese propoganda for whatever stuff they are upto??
Could it be about Tibet? But Tibet is a long way off.
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jamwal wrote:If this ETIM in China really exists, why are we hearing about it only now? Where were they before Olymipcs?
Are they for real or just Chinese propoganda for whatever stuff they are upto??
Could it be about Tibet? But Tibet is a long way off.
ETIM is for real. They have been active for a long time. They established a base in Waziristan. In fact, the Chief of ETIM, Hasan Mehsum, was killed in Waziristan in Oct. 2003 by the Pakistanis upon request by China in the guise of GWOT. Pakistan was given membership in Shanghai Cooperation Org (SCO) ostensibly to control ETIM.
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Along with the Borbst book on Caroe please read
K.M. Pannikar's book:

Asia and Western Dominance- A survey of Vasco DA Gama epoch of Asian History

There are pdf versions etc.
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Information for this thread from the book
IT was not only in India and China that European authority began to
retreat after the First Great War, In Afghanistan, Nepal, Siam,
Indo-China and Indonesia the situation underwent a marked change
which, no doubt, was in a measure due to the altered position in India
and in China. King Amanullah in Afghanistan refused to be bound by
the limitations which Britain had imposed on his father's sovereignty
and, taking advantage of the war weariness of the British, even opened
hostilities against the British Indian frontiers. The treaty which followed
the conclusion of the war recognized Afghanistan as an independent,
sovereign State. The Soviet Government immediately extended recogni-
tion and Afghanistan soon entered into relations with all the major
Powers and was admitted to the League of Nations.


The inter-war period thus witnessed the breakdown of the systems of
imperial authority as a result firstly of the weakening of the capitalist
system in the colonizing countries of Western Europe following the
Great War and, secondly* of the strength of the nationalist forces un-
leashed by the circumstances of the conflict in which Asian nations were
called on to take part, by the intervention of America and by the potent
influence of the October Revolution. The Second World War only gave
the coup de grace to a system which had already broken down and which
could no longer function effectively, SUBJECTED to the same pressure and facing similar dangers, the
ancient societies of India, China and Japan., and following them the
lesser States of Asia, reacted broadly along parallel lines. The renais-
sance of Asia has certain broad general characteristics. In the first place,
it is a more or less successful attempt to reorganize society in order
primarily to adjust relationships which had become obsolete, e.g., caste
in India, feudalism in Japan and the stratification of life in China. The
object of this reorganization was to resist external pressure. It was there-
fore organized from the top.
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Stresa Front


The Stresa Front was an agreement made in Stresa, a town on the banks of Lake Maggiore, between French foreign minister Pierre Laval, British prime minister Ramsay MacDonald, and Italian leader Benito Mussolini on April 14, 1935. Formally called the Final Declaration of the Stresa Conference. It's aim was to reaffirm the Locarno Treaties, and to declare that the independence of Austria "would continue to inspire their common policy". They also agreed to resist any future attempt by the Germans to change the Treaty of Versailles.

The Stresa Front takes its name from the Stresa Conference in Italy, where it was negotiated. Benito Mussolini, the Italian fascist leader, was able to cut a dashing figure by arriving at the conference via speedboat.

The Stresa Front was triggered by Germany's declaration of its intention to build up an air force, to increase the size of its army to 36 divisions, (400,000 men - four times the army allowed by Versailles) and to introduce conscription, in March 1935.

The Stresa Front could be seen as a failure due to its vague terms and the fact that it wasn't clear what its aims were and how they should be upheld. This was designed to be vague and it ignored all references to Germany as Britain was adopting a dual policy. The tough hard line was provided by Mussolini, while Britain 'kept the door open' with Germany in order to obtain agreements. The Front omitted any references to Germany as not to antagonise Hitler and end Anglo-German negotiations. This fact could make the Stresa Front be seen as a mild success.[citation needed] Hitler had used tactics that made Britain and France guess at what his next move would be. However, because of the vague terms, it kept Hitler guessing at what Britain would do. However Britain didn't realize the advantage it had over Germany and this was lost with the signing of the Anglo-German Naval Agreement.

Another reason for its failure was that neither Britain, France or Italy wanted to invade Germany and the only real way in which German rearmament could be ceased was by a full scale invasion of Germany. However the British government was strongly unwilling to go with this option as they perceived that the British public opinion was that of anti-war sentiment.

The Front was not successful. Within two months the UK had signed the Anglo-German Naval Agreement, by which Germany was given the green light to increase the size of its navy to no more than 35% (by tonnage) of the Royal Navy and to build submarines. The UK had not discussed this with its Stresa partners and the front was seriously damaged. This highlighted the fact that the countries that made up the Stresa Front were pulling in different directions, and weakened the front. It collapsed completely with Italy's invasion of Abyssinia.

Mussolini had ambitions of controlling Abyssinia for a long time and it was a well known fact. When Britain signed the Anglo-German Naval Agreement it ended the Stresa Front as it enraged Mussolini. This was because Britain had signed the agreement without first informing him. Mussolini had held back on his invasion plans as Abyssinia bordered French and British Somaliland and he didn't want to anger his allies. However he saw that Britain had betrayed him and it removed all doubts about the invasion. He also believed that such a move ended the conditions that were agreed in the Stresa Front.

On January 6, 1936, Mussolini told German ambassador Ulrich von Hassell that he would not object to Germany taking Austria as a satellite state so long as it maintained independence. Later, on the 22 February, Mussolini gave clearance for Hitler's remilitarization of the Rhineland, stating that Italy would not honor the obligations of the Locarno Treaty should Germany take such action.[1]
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Anabhaya »

What are we looking at now? I mean what are our long term objectives vis-a-vis Pakistan and Afghanistan. Obviously our policy and objective wrt Pakistan will also dictate our aims in Kashmir.

What would be a good starting point?
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by satya »

What are we looking at now? I mean what are our long term objectives vis-a-vis Pakistan and Afghanistan. Obviously our policy and objective wrt Pakistan will also dictate our aims in Kashmir.

What would be a good starting point?
What are we looking at now? I mean what are our long term objectives vis-a-vis Pakistan and Afghanistan. Obviously our policy and objective wrt Pakistan will also dictate our aims in Kashmir.

What would be a good starting point?
For a start need to identify the buffer regions and then frontier regions and finally the borders of India . To consider Kashmir as a frontier or border region will be a fatal mistake for which we already are paying a heavy price .
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Post by ShauryaT »

Send troops to Afghanistan
A significant Indian military presence in Afghanistan will alter the geo-strategic landscape in the extended neighbourhood, by expanding India’s power projection in Central Asia. The Pakistani establishment will be compelled to divert its energies from their eastern to their northern borders. India can counter cross-border terrorism effectively only if it has the capacity to strategically ratchet up pressure either of Pakistan’s fronts.
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ShauryaT wrote:Send troops to Afghanistan
A significant Indian military presence in Afghanistan will alter the geo-strategic landscape in the extended neighbourhood, by expanding India’s power projection in Central Asia. The Pakistani establishment will be compelled to divert its energies from their eastern to their northern borders. India can counter cross-border terrorism effectively only if it has the capacity to strategically ratchet up pressure either of Pakistan’s fronts.
the idea is laudable. however the mechanism is not clear. India cannot send troops under some other command as it harks back to colonial period. Indian troops might be under UN command which is a far cry as, UN comes up with that solution only areas where there is no outside support which is not the case in Afghanistan.

Indian troops can come only under Indian command at the invitaion of the Afghan government. Karzai has not consolidated is power yet though he has legitimacy. Inviting Indian presence will provide a rallying point for his oppopenets at this time. If elections are held and Karzai returns to power he can issue such an invitation. Till then its not feasible to think of Indian troops in Afghanistan.
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Post by ShauryaT »

ramana wrote:the idea is laudable. however the mechanism is not clear.
Along with or even more important than a mechanism is a way to win over the Pashtuns, to the idea of Indian troops in the region. The ace in that strategy has got to be Indian support for Afghanistan's position of the Durand line. They have never recognized it.
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This book is mentioned in Brobst's book on Caroe.
SanjayM wrote: THE GRAND CHESSBOARD by Zbigniew Brzezinski

http://sandiego.indymedia.org/media/2006/10/119973.pdf

Here it is.
The Atlanticist Mein Kampf.
Enjoy.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Paul »

As I said many many times before, acceding to Afghanistan's demand on Durand line will hit us in the post pakistan scenario.

It is possible that Afghanistan will be the new rentier state looking after US/western interests by virtue of it's proximity to the Gulf/CA/Subcontinent.

Ranjit Singh had wrested this territory for India hence creatin a buffer state and reversing centuries of neglect. To give this up now when the end of Pakistan is almost a foregone conclusion would be a big mistake.

India's position on Durand line should be clearly ambiguious...

If the west is serious about asking India to send troops to Afghania, they should be placed in the vicinity of Kunduz/wakhan...where they can be supported from AYni AFB in Tajikistan and also *cough* *cough* it's proximity to Gilgit/Hunza.
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ramana
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X-posted...
This post from mainstream ties ISI, Great Game and everything else! And its written in 1995.
Mainstream, Vol XLVI No 30
India’s Stake in Afghanistan

Wednesday 16 July 2008, by From NC’s Writings

In the last two years, there has been non-stop coverage in the media and in the diplomatic circles about Bosnia, but very little about the happenings in Afghanistan. From the angle of ethnic conflict, both represent a dimension which needs to be fully grasped while from the strategic point of view, Afghanistan’s historical importance is unmatched.

For a century-and-a-half, Afghanistan has been the battleground of rival Great Powers, so much so that the moves and the counter-moves between Russia and Britain had come to be known as the Great Game. Diplomatic, political and military moves on the part of London and St Petersburg converged, to a considerable extent, upon Afghanistan. And both these great powers of the time had designs to capture Afghanistan, at least so manage that the country did not come under its rival. The British made three military attempts to capture Afghanistan, but failed as they could not overcome the fierce spirit of autonomy on the part of the major tribes which refused to permit any power to dominate over their country. For both, Afghanistan was the key area. Whoever conquered Afghanistan, the road to Delhi would be open. And on the other side, from Kabul to Tashkent and beyond, into the heart of the Czarist Empire would have been open.

When the Czarist Empire fell in 1917 and the Bolsheviks under Lenin captured power, the importance of Afghanistan did not diminish. The British, as the leading imperial power at the time, played the foremost role in the protracted war of intervention waged by the Western powers together against the new Soviet state as part of the crusade against Communism. Operations, both open and sub rosa, against the arrival of the Bolshevik power into Central Asia was conducted mainly from Delhi, at that time and key regional base of Britain’s imperial exploits raging all the way from Suez to Shanghai. Well-known figures in the Political Department of the Raj in Delhi like Sir Francis Younghusband, Col. Bailey and Sir Olaf Caroe all worked from their base in India. For Afghanistan, particularly active was Sir Olaf Caroe, as his interventions were directed against Central Asia where he stirred up the regional tribal leaders and mullahs against the new regime in Moscow. It may be worth recalling that one of Caroe’s trusted lieutenants was Iskander Mirza, who later on overthrow the democratic regime in Pakistan in the late fifties and established the military dictatorship. Incidentally, Caroe dedicated his book on Pathans to Iskander Mirza.

At the end of World War II, when the British had to quit the subcontinent and the independent states of India and Pakistan were formed, the Great Game took a new turn. The British openly admitted their inability to lead the Great Game against the Soviet Union. In the international sphere, London openly became the subservient junior partner of Washington. Sir Olaf Caroe personally went to Washington and handed over his entire dossier on Central Asia to the US authorities, as by the terms of the Cold War, the leadership role of the anti-Soviet coalition passed on to the USA.

It was in this changed context that the importance of Pakistan became crucial in the geo-strategic map of the US. President Eisenhower offered the Mutual Security Pact to Pakistan in 1954—a landmark for which Nehru accused the USA for bringing the Cold War to this part of the world. Followed Pakistan’s participation in CENTO and SEATO. The military alliances of the USA had their domestic impact. Within two years of the 1954 military accord with the US, Pakistan witnessed the end of its First Republic and the military takeover, first under Iskander Mirza, followed by General Ayub Khan.

It is important to note here that more than any alliance on the civilian side, the link-up between the Pentagon and the CIA on one side and the Pakistan military junta on the other became an abiding feature of this relationship. And for its external operations, the responsibility was mainly placed on the so-called Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan which has throughout been working as an extended arm of the Pentagon and the CIA, an arrangement which has by no means ceased with the end of the Cold War or been affected by the vagaries of the US-Pak relations on the political front.

Pakistan’s importance in the US geo-strategic map was enhanced with the worsening crisis in Afghanistan. After three years of hide-and-seek within the political spectrum of Afghanistan, the two superpowers came out openly for the capture of the country itself. The Soviet military intervention into Afghanistan in December 1979 immediately touched off the US counter-move. Brezezinski as the head of President Carter’s National Security outfit rushed to Pakistan and went up to the Afghan border and instantly decided on a massive supply of arms and financial aid to Pakistan on the plea of building up resistance to the Soviet military presence in Afghanistan. The Afghan mujahideen groups were stationed in Pakistan, and the ISI took charge of training and directing the armed Afghan guerillas with the full backing of the USA. It was in this period during General Ziaul Haq’s presidency that the ISI as the extended arm of Washington was really consolidated as a parallel autonomous establishment to the Pakistan Government.

One of the first signs of the end of the Cold War could be seen in Afghanistan when the Russian troops pulled out in 1989. Then came the real test of the ISI. A smooth take-over by a mujahideen coalition did not follow. To cut the story short, the situation became precarious as diverse contending tribal coalitions ranged against one another. The American dream of a subservient Afghanistan acting as its intelligence-cum-intervention station against the turbulence in Central Asia with the collapse of the USSR has not materialised, nor can Afghanistan today be regarded as a convenient base for US operations against Iran, which is today Washington’s Number One target in the Gulf region.

The ISI calculations that its trusted forces under Hekmatyar would be able to capture power in Kabul ended up in a fiasco. So, a new regrouping of ISI-led forces has taken place under the brand name of Taliban. It is the ISI-directed Taliban which has been carrying on a full-scale war against the mujahideen leader Rabbani’s government in Kabul. Even if Rabbani’s forces fall, the Taliban can hardly take over the entire Afghanistan, as the forces in the North and the West would not permit a regime which depended on Pakistan.

It is the present phase of the Afghan war, which directly brings out the commonality of interests between India and Afghanistan. It is now widely acknowledged in India and abroad that the armed secessionism in Kashmir is being directed by the ISI, more than any other elements in Pakistan. And it is the same ISI which is directing the Taliban operation against the government in Kabul. If the ISI wins in Afghanistan, it will have more effective political control within Pakistan and its military intervention in the Kashmir Valley will be stepped up. Therefore, whenever New Delhi raises the question of armed terrorism from across the border into Kashmir, it has to remind itself and the world that the very same force—the ISI—is conducting military intervention in Afghanistan. This linkage between Kashmir and Afghanistan needs to be stressed by our government and political parties whenever they talk about foreign intervention into Kashmir. And who backs the common bandit force, the ISI?

Since the ISI admittedly owes its origin and survival most decisively to the patronage it enjoys from the Pentagon and the CIA, it would be short-sighted not to face the reality; it is imperative that the real face of the ISI is shown up as the common enemy of Afghanistan, Kashmir and the democratic forces within Pakistan.


(Mainstream, October 28, 1995)


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Google book - India in the world order
India in the World Order
By Baldev Raj Nayar, T. V. Paul

Two highly regarded scholars come together to examine India's relationship with the world's major powers and its own search for a significant role in the international system. Central to the argument is Indiaas belief that the acquisition of an independent nuclear capability is key to obtaining such status. The book details the major constraints at the international, domestic and perceptual levels that India has faced in this endeavor. It concludes, through a detailed comparison of India's power capabilities, that India is indeed a rising power, but that significant systemic and domestic changes will be necessary before it can achieve its goal. The book examines the prospects and implications of India's integration into the major-power system in the twenty-first century. Given recent developments, the book is extremely timely. Its incisive analysis will be illuminating for students, policy makers, and for anyone wishing to understand the region in greater depth.

India in the World Order: Searching for Major-Power Status. By Baldev Raj Nayar and T.V. Paul. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2003. 291 pages. $60.00 ($22.00 paper). Reviewed by Dr. Amer Latif, Deputy Director, Operations, Joint Warfare Analysis Center (JWAC) and adjunct professor with Mary Washington College, Fredericksburg, Va.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m ... i_n6112725

Over the past two decades, India has been touted as the next major rising power that cannot be ignored by the international community. We are told by scholars and Indian policymakers that India is knocking on the door of the exclusive club of states that comprise the major powers (US, PRC, Russia, UK, France). Despite a number of indicators that seem to indicate India's impending status as a major power, however, there are reasons why India has not achieved this status. This new book by Baldev Nayar and T.V. Paul, two prominent South Asia scholars at McGill University, explains why India has fallen short of its aspiration to join this collection of states.

The authors begin their discussion with an examination of how India stacks up among the major powers--the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France. In this respect, India presents a mixed picture. Although India lags in economic and military power, India does have a substantial population growth rate vis-a-vis the other major powers, except China.

Nayar and Paul assert that in terms of the various measures of "hard power"--military strength, economy, technology, and demographics--India has promising potential for the future. India's military is trying to improve its power-projection capabilities through the development of several variants of the Agni missile that will increase its reach to various parts of Asia. Additionally, India has been improving its conventional capabilities in the areas of air and sea power, albeit haltingly. However, the authors are on shaky ground with their assessment when they appear to equate the accumulation of arms with the effective exercise of military capability. India has traditionally had difficulties in conducting joint military operations and projecting power beyond its region with conventional forces. One could question whether India's military is on a trajectory to become a military worthy of a major power anytime soon.

The authors believe that India appears to be on its way to becoming one of the leading economies by the middle of the 21st century. However, slow internal privatization reforms, sustaining a healthy rate of growth, and an inability to capture a larger share of global trade will harm India's ability to become a significant economic power. India's staggering poverty and its dismal performance on UN development indicators are also issues that Indian policymakers must address.

Technologically, India has made substantial gains in some areas, while in others it lags behind. India has developed high-end technology for space and nuclear capabilities, but has neglected low-end technology for addressing some of its most pressing social problems. The authors also believe that the nation's growing population, combined with the projected population decline of many industrialized states, will increase the demand for Indian labor abroad. Curiously, Nayar and Paul neglect to discuss the AIDS problem in India and its effect on Indian aspirations for major-power status. A recent National Intelligence Council study identified India (along with Russia and China) as one of the states where the next AIDS epidemic could occur. Such an epidemic could undermine the elements of hard power discussed above.

As far as soft power is concerned, India has an uneven record in exercising resources such as international institutional power, state capacity, strategic vision, and national leadership. Although India does project a robust worldwide cultural influence in a number of areas, the other elements of soft power will have to mature rapidly in order to keep pace with the development of India's hard-power resources.

India also has encountered a number of other obstacles in its bid to become a major power. At the systemic level, for example, the authors believe that major powers such as the United States and China do not wish to see the emergence of growing powers such as India for fear that it may upset the established system of power. India's domestic constraints also have hindered its ability to obtain a key leadership role in the world. Indian economic growth has been hindered by many factors such as autarkic economic policies, lack of emphasis on education, and neglect of infrastructure. Despite a drive toward privatization in the late 1980s, reforms have been slow and have not produced the expected growth. Social factors also hinder India's progress, with high rates of illiteracy and a lack of basic social services in many areas. Cultural factors also are obstacles for India as it struggles with issues of caste, communal relations, and the treatment of women in its society. Unfortunately the authors have forgotten the paradigm that what usually makes a state powerful is by being strong at home before being strong abroad.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by svinayak »

Anschluss
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss

The Anschluss (help·info)[1] (German pronunciation: [ˈanʃlʊs]; German: "link-up"), also known as the Anschluss Österreichs (help·info), was the 1938 annexation of Austria into Greater Germany by the Nazi regime.

The events of March 12, 1938, marked the culmination of historical cross-national pressures to unify the German populations of Austria and Germany under one nation. Earlier, Nazi Germany had provided support for the Austrian National Socialist Party (Austrian Nazi Party) in its bid to seize power from Austria's Austrofascist leadership. Fully devoted to remaining independent but amidst growing pressures, the Chancellor of Austria, Kurt Schuschnigg, tried to hold a referendum to ask the Austrian people whether they wished to remain independent or merge into Germany.


Nevertheless, the Anschluss was among the first major steps in Adolf Hitler's long-desired creation of an empire including German-speaking lands and territories Germany had lost after World War I, although Austria had never been a part of Germany. Already prior to the 1938 annexation, the Rhineland was retaken and the Saar region was returned to Germany after fifteen years of occupation. After the Anschluss, the predominantly German Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia was taken, with the rest of the country becoming a protectorate to Germany in 1939. That same year, Memelland was returned from Lithuania, the final peaceful territorial aggrandizement before the start of World War II.

Situation before the Anschluss


The idea of grouping all Germans into one state had been the subject of inconclusive debate since the end of the Holy Roman Empire in 1806. Before 1866, it was generally thought that the unification of the Germans could only succeed under Austrian leadership, but the rise of Prussia was largely unpredicted. This created a rivalry between the two that made unification through a Großdeutschland solution impossible. Also, due to the multi-ethnic composition of the Austro-Hungarian Empire centralized in Vienna, many rejected this notion and it was unthinkable that Austria would give up her "non-German" territories, let alone submit to Prussia. Nevertheless, a series of wars, including the Austro-Prussian War, led to the expulsion of Austria from German affairs, allowed for the creation of the North German Confederation and consolidated the German states through Prussia, enabling the creation of a German Empire in 1871.

The Anschluss of 1938

[edit] Hitler's first moves

In early 1938, Hitler had consolidated his power in Germany and was ready to reach out to fulfill his long-planned expansion. After a lengthy period of pressure by Germany, Hitler met Kurt Schuschnigg, the Chancellor of Austria on 12 February 1938 in Berchtesgaden (Bavaria) and demanded that he lift the ban on political parties, reinstate full party freedoms, release all imprisoned members of the Nazi party and let them participate in the government. Otherwise, he would take military action. Schuschnigg complied with Hitler's demands and appointed Arthur Seyss-Inquart, a pro-Nazi lawyer, as Interior Minister and another Nazi, Edmund Glaise-Horstenau, as a Minister without Portfolio.[2]
ramana
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ramana »

Lord Curzon's Romanes lecture on Frontiers. Please read all the parts.

http://www-ibru.dur.ac.uk/resources/docs/curzon1.html

or this one

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Frontiers
Sumeet
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Sumeet »

Radical Islamists are hell bent on establishing a caliphate in Asia. To counter their aims we should cooperate with other countries in the region to put up a pan Asia Anti Radical Islam Front. Israel, Thailand, Philippines, China, Afghanistan, Russia and India are all facing a common enemy in radical Islam.

Although, I am well aware that bottom line is that we have to tackle our problem on our own, but whatever pressure that can be mounted by projected a pan Asia Anti Radical Islam Front should be done no matter however little helpful it will be in contributing to the total solution from an Indian point of view. This should be India's role in Asian extending its influence throughout Asia and stabilizing it.



Filipino troops press assault on Muslim rebels
MANILA, Philippines - Philippine troops regained control of two southern villages from Muslim rebels Monday as the number of Filipinos displaced in the fighting grew to 130,000, officials said.
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Government troops pressed ahead with a massive assault to clear 13 other villages. At least one soldier and seven Moro Islamic Liberation Front guerrillas have been killed since nearly 3,000 troops and police launched the attacks on Sunday.

The assault, backed by artillery and rocket-firing helicopters, came after the guerrillas defied an ultimatum to withdraw from five towns in North Cotabato province, military vice chief of staff Lt. Gen. Cardozo Luna said.

The clashes have forced about 130,000 villagers to flee their homes, the government's disaster agency said.


The conflict comes at a time when the predominantly Christian agricultural province of more than a million people is still recovering from Typhoon Fung Wong, which ravaged farmlands last month.

Gov. Jesus Sacdalan said over the weekend that the fighting has made the recovery more difficult.

The fighting also coincided with a crucial development in ongoing peace talks between the government and the rebels, who have been waging a bloody insurgency for self-rule in the southern Philippines.

The two sides had reached agreement covering the territorial makeup of a future expanded Muslim region, but the signing of the accord was halted last week by the Supreme Court.


The court was acting on a petition filed by North Cotabato's Christian politicians who are wary of losing land and power to the Muslims.

Separately Monday, another 300 guerrillas — also suspected of belonging to the Moro group — attacked Basilan province's Tipo Tipo township, some 186 miles southwest of North Cotabato, officials said.

The suspected rebels were protesting the election of a new governor and other officials of the five-province Muslim autonomous region that includes Basilan province, the provincial police chief Salik Macapantar said.

Macapantar said two policemen who helped repel the guerrillas were missing.

Marine Lt. Col. Leonard Vincent Teodoro said the rebels occupied Tipo Tipo's town hall, schools and several houses before government forces drove them out.

The government had given the group's estimated 800-1,000 guerrillas until Friday morning to vacate 15 villages in five North Cotabato townships that the rebels have occupied for more than a month.

During an emergency meeting to stave off a confrontation, the group's leaders agreed to order their men to pull back.

But instead of withdrawing, the rebels stayed put and spread into other areas, prompting the government to launch an assault, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said.

Teodoro said the guerrillas led by a key regional commander, Ameril Umbra Kato, were no longer following the orders of their leaders. But rebel spokesman Eid Kabalu denied Teodoro's claim, saying Kato remains a loyal commander.



Bombing spree exposes ethnic divisions in China
In Xinjiang's Kashgar, a city near the border with Afghanistan and Pakistan, two attackers rammed a truck into a group of police who they then attacked with homemade bombs and knives, killing 16. No group claimed responsibility.

Another group struck early Sunday morning in west-central Xinjiang. Bombers hit 17 sites — including a police station, government building, bank and shops — in the ancient Silk Road city of Kuqa.

Police said 10 assailants — including one woman — were killed along with a security guard and a bystander. Another of the attackers, a 15-year-old girl, was injured, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

Anti-government violence has flared in Xinjiang for years. But Nicholas Bequelin, a researcher with New York-based Human Rights Watch's Asia Division, said Sunday's attacks were more highly organized.

"It presents several new aspects which were not present in previous incidents in Xinjiang," Bequelin said. "One is the sophisticated coordination of the attacks: It was not just one attack. It's a string of bombings that requires much more planning and a larger organization to carry out especially at the time of the Olympics when the security is so high."

Government crackdowns often silence the Uighurs or discourage them from speaking out. Most will only speak to reporters on condition of anonymity.

After the Kuqa attacks, groups of Uighurs in the city of 450,000 people strolled around the streets looking at the damage. Their Chinese neighbors appeared grim and were quick to denounce the violence. But many of the Uighurs seemed amused and cheerful. When asked if they endorsed the attacks, they wouldn't answer the question or reply, "I don't know."

That was the answer given — after a grin and a chuckle — on Monday by a merchant walking through Kuqa's market, which was bustling with life again after the city was shut down by security forces most of Sunday because of the attacks.

"If you look at the streets, everything seems calm and peaceful," said the merchant, who would only identify himself as Amar because he feared retribution. "The Uighurs are driving cars and motorcycles. They have shops. But behind it all, the situation is different. People are really angry."

He accused the Chinese of restricting the study and practice of Islam. He also said Uighurs suffered job discrimination and were discouraged from using their Turkic language.



"If you are a Muslim, you are already a criminal suspect in the eyes of the Chinese," he said.

The Uighurs suffered greatly in the 1960s and 1970s when the government — caught up in Marxist revolutionary fervor — viewed religion as well as minority languages and culture as divisive remnants of feudalism that should be abolished. In the 1980s, the government adopted a more liberal political and cultural policy in Xinjiang. But Beijing resorted to a hardline policy in the mid 1990s after scattered incidents of unrest.

The tough measures continue today, and may fuel support for the Turkestan Islamic Party, a group experts say might have links to al-Qaida in Pakistan, though it is small and has limited capacity to launch attacks beyond its region. The group released two videos in recent weeks threatening to attack the Olympics.
Paul
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Paul »

Why are articles not related to Indian interests in the great game being posted here....

J and K map

See this map of J&K and get the picture of the stranglehold the Kahsmiriyat parasites are holding over Indian interests...The valley is exceeded in pop by Jammu and in area by Ladakh..still it is given precedence over the other two areas.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ShauryaT »

Paul wrote:As I said many many times before, acceding to Afghanistan's demand on Durand line will hit us in the post pakistan scenario.

It is possible that Afghanistan will be the new rentier state looking after US/western interests by virtue of it's proximity to the Gulf/CA/Subcontinent.

Ranjit Singh had wrested this territory for India hence creatin a buffer state and reversing centuries of neglect. To give this up now when the end of Pakistan is almost a foregone conclusion would be a big mistake.

India's position on Durand line should be clearly ambiguious...

If the west is serious about asking India to send troops to Afghania, they should be placed in the vicinity of Kunduz/wakhan...where they can be supported from AYni AFB in Tajikistan and also *cough* *cough* it's proximity to Gilgit/Hunza.
Paul, when you get some time, it will be nice for an elaboration of the above.
ramana
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by ramana »

ShauryaT, Despite the google advise the following holds.

Its very clear that the border areas/NWFP (which was created by Lord Curzon incidentally) are getting fundamentalized/Talibanised. A corridor is being formed with its writ on west bank of Indus. Add to that the recent reports of Karachi and Najam Sethi's growling about Talibanization of Sindh all these are portends of the coming defacto break up of TSP if not dejure.
SSridhar wrote:Najam Sethi warning editorially about the true state of affairs in Pakistan
The PPP is particularly at risk as it ignores the threats being made by the Taliban about “taking over” Sindh.

The state doesn’t have the ability to impose its writ on more than half the territory, and areas under normal administration also are fast slipping into the zone of “ungoverned spaces”.
There are big national decisions to be made not only in the Tribal Areas and the NWFP but also in Balochistan, both relating to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the state.
If you watch TSP channels one sees that there is a defacto separation in the TSP society also. What I mean for example, there are two cooking channels on GEO TV both hosted by women- One is a RAPE type but dressed in Indian attire, the other is an Islamist with head covered. So they cater to different segments of the society. The curious thing is they both make Continental dishes! And the music shows have two streams- pop and sufi type. So there is a fundamental schism underway in TSP on fundamentalist lines.

I had said earlier that the loss of Kandahar by Akbar in 1588 was the death blow of the Mughals as they were finished in less than 150 years after that. The frontier areas were allowed to go under Persian influence and led to the Durranis taking over Afghanistan with severe consequences to mainland India. Ranjit Singh created the buffer state and the English got hold of those areas after the Anglo-Sikh Wars. Durand line was created after the Anglo-Afghan wars and formalized the defacto buffer created due to Ranjit Singh's efforts.

To support Pashtun recovery of Durand line will bring the frontier back to the outer rim of Indian core lands. So I support Paul in his saying that Pashtuns should be shown to recover their lost lands from the Iranians/Persians. Better yet be satisfied with what they have. Another arguement is the Sarakri Pashtuns on the easttern side of Durand lines are the tribes that sided with Aurangazeb and being the successor state its India that should look out for them eventually. Frontier Gandhi's debt has to be repaid. Abe hisab baki hain. He was let down badly as we didnt understand nor had the capability to support him in 1947.

I posted the Romanes Lecture by Curzon to get people thinking beyond borders and on to frontiers. The Russians call it "near abroad". The US frontier is in Western Europe.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Paul »

1. http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=+f ... tnG=Search

(*deleted* - No need to reply to unwarranted sarcasm in kind, we are all free thinkers trying to define indian interests in our free time. Nobody on this forum is getting paid to do this, so it is pretty self evident we spend time on this forum when we have time. I try my best not to get into the "Arguementative Indian" mould).

2. Ahmed Rashid's book - "Pakistan's Descent into Chaos"

3. The other very perceptive thinker on Pakistan-Afghan relations is Khaled Ahmed. For may years he had been predicting the threat on it's western borders and the dangers of the ISI formulating it's afghan policy. I have been following his writings for the last 10+ years.

Here is a quote from his review of Behera's book on Kashmir in Dailytimes.
We have discovered rather late in the day that it is Karachi that is our jugular vein and that we have been living upside-down all our lives. And that we’d rather protect Karachi from terrorism and provincial sub-nationalism than try and grab Kashmir. *
Last edited by Paul on 12 Aug 2008 22:06, edited 2 times in total.
Paul
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by Paul »

I think we are approaching a defining point in this thread - We need to define what is india's interests on the Durand line.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by vsudhir »

Paul wrote:I think we are approaching a defining point in this thread - We need to define what is india's interests on the Durand line.
Sad to have to say this, but seems to me the basic tactic (or is it strategy) formulated and perfected by the original great gamers seems tobe the only practical solution to the Durand mess.

And that is 'to manouvre the region such that it exhausts its energies upon itself'. A handful of small bickering states (if not, a duopoly of perpetually hostile parties a la TSP and India) best suits that purpose.

India's other great interest in the region (next to securing her current political borders from G-houri & Ghaznavi clones) - land access to central asia - will crucially pivot on the logical follow-through of the great-gaming scenario. It can happen only if India remains on talking and trading terms with all the bickering parties in the region. Just like GB and unkil today are on 'freindly' terms with both TSP and India, with both PRC and Taiwan, with both Israel and Palestine....

/Unstructured, unorganised thoughts happening.
But this thread is a keeper, saars. Hats off to Rama garu, Acharya san and to contributions from Paul.
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by surinder »

I am surprised that there is still a divergence of opinions on the Durand Line. Why would it not benifit India if it is abolished? Is that even a point of debate?
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Re: Understanding the Great Game and role of India & Asian stabi

Post by RamaY »

vsudhir wrote: India's other great interest in the region (next to securing her current political borders from G-houri & Ghaznavi clones) - land access to central asia - will crucially pivot on the logical follow-through of the great-gaming scenario. It can happen only if India remains on talking and trading terms with all the bickering parties in the region. Just like GB and unkil today are on 'freindly' terms with both TSP and India, with both PRC and Taiwan, with both Israel and Palestine....
Good observation, but doesn’t apply for India IMHO…

India cannot be a equal partner (like in your example) in pakistan problem because India itself is one of the factions like in most of our neighborhood situations. For example we don’t see US to be in ‘friendly’ terms with Venezuela or Cuba. Same with China in Taiwan and GB with Zimbabwe.

What India can do instead is to partner with the other great powers in diffusing an international issue and gain global stature. Similar to North Korea’s atomic program and six party talks. Perhaps India should call for a six party dialogue to resolve Afghanistan problem by inviting Iran, Russia, Pakistan, India, US/Nato, and Afghanistan. Whether this system materializes or not is a different thing. But India should insist on this in every meeting it has with Nato/Afghanista/Russia/Iran.

Secondly, India should demonstrate some hard power too to be taken seriously. It must identify at least few key masterminds behind the terrorist attacks and hang them quickly. And respond to Pak/BD’s boarder incident with punitive shelling.

I am very confident that our future generations will be more than willing to apologize for the atrocities we have committed on our border nations once we give them a secure, stable and true secular future…
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