2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Airavat · Post by **Airavat** » 17 Mar 2011 05:30

Containment vessel failure unlikely: Japan Times

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told reporters in the afternoon that the government now believes the water pool for spent nuclear fuel at the No. 3 reactor probably heated up, causing steam to rise. If the fuel rods were to melt, high amounts of radiation could be released into the environment. The pool is not in the containment vessel. Unlike the reactor itself, the fuel pool is not protected by a containment vessel and the roof of the No. 3 building was blown away by an earlier hydrogen explosion.

The temperature of the water in the spent fuel pool at the No. 4 unit also spiked Wednesday. The reactor had caught fire a day earlier after a hydrogen blast created two big holes in the facility's wall. Providing more water is urgently needed to prevent the fuel rods from melting. In a race against time to cool the water pool, the government dispatched a Self-Defense Forces C-47 helicopter carrying a bladder to dump water into the pool. But the plan was canceled for the day because of the abnormally high level of radiation escaping from the plant. It was later reported that a Metropolitan Police Department water cannon was requested to pump watere into the overheating facilities.

At present, residents within a 20-km radius have been ordered to evacuate and people between a 20- to 30-km radius have been instructed to stay indoors. Seawater continued to be pumped into all the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 reactors, but water levels were still not high enough to cool all of the fuel rods.

Airavat · Post by **Airavat** » 17 Mar 2011 05:41

A woman walks past debris in Rikuzentakata, Iwate Prefecture, on Wednesday (Japan Today).

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 17 Mar 2011 05:43

NYTimes: Weak Japanese leadership
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world ... tokyo.html

Never has postwar Japan needed strong, assertive leadership more — and never has its weak, rudderless system of governing been so clearly exposed or mattered so much.
....
Postwar Japan flourished under a system in which political leaders left much of its foreign policy to the United States and its handling of domestic affairs to powerful bureaucrats. Prominent companies operated with an extensive reach into personal lives; their executives were admired for their role as corporate citizens.

But over the past decade or so, the bureaucrats’ authority has been eviscerated, and corporations have lost both power and swagger as the economy has floundered. Yet no strong political class has emerged to take their place. Four prime ministers have come and gone in less than four years; most political analysts had already written off the fifth, Naoto Kan, even before the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster.

...
The absence of a strong leader capable of rallying the nation has never been more obvious than in the management of the efforts to contain the growing nuclear crisis.

“In the past, bureaucrats would have been issuing orders without even consulting with politicians,” said Takeshi Sasaki, a political scientist at Gakushuin University. “Now the bureaucrats are no longer involved, and the government keeps holding news conferences, but there is no evidence I can see that it is doing anything beyond that. Japan has never experienced such a serious test. At the same time, there is a leadership vacuum.”

I post it because this is one of the development traps that can hit India too, going forward.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Mar 2011 05:57

ramana wrote:AmberG, I want your opinion as physicst of the news reports from US about radiation in Japan. I get the feeling that US experts and media are overstating the case to induce panic which is not to be seen in Japan.

---Cherhnobyl did not have concrete containment dome.

Ramana I am no one to comment here and yes it would be right for AmberG to comment. But I think the US's statements always stem from "How much can you get sued for given this level of damage?" I might be wrong - but they take hazards more seriously than most. I'm not saying its wrong but I wonder if that is the calculus that makes the US tick the way it does.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 17 Mar 2011 06:54

With all this exodus going on Tokyo (real or perceived) on the part of the gora community, there is a great chance that remnants of this gora-slave disease which is quite strong in Japan (as in rest of E.Asia) will get cured to a great degree...these people not only criticise and bitch like US is doing now from ivory tower, they also run away at the first sight of trouble like stupid UK and OZ asking its citizens to leave Tokyo when 9-10 million Japs (who are no third world disposables), remain there.

A great opp. for Indians there do some image building...make clear to Japs that we are together..

I sincerely hope when dust settles down, Japs particularly sections of the women community who drool at the sight of anything white in pants..will stop doing so..

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 17 Mar 2011 07:05

The earthquake changed everything. What will Tokyo do next?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... black_swan

Strategic implications of Japan's disaster

http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2 ... s_disaster

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 17 Mar 2011 08:51

Amber G. wrote:
ramana wrote:AmberG, They dont want to let the sea water coolant boil. It only to cool. Some of it might get converted to steam initially.
Ramana - From what I know (and am told) it is indeed 'boiling' (and conversion to steam) which absorb the lion's share of energy. Of course they have to cover all the rods with water but now the water is not being "circulated" but rather "feed and bleed" (force sea water.. let it boil and let the steam escape..)

Could be wrong in all the details, and obviously I don't know exactly what is happening there ... but that will be my guess. ..

(Above, of course, is for reactor itself, not for spent fuel in the pool)

More on this from reliable source: (IAEA and the link given before)

Seawater pumping

Efforts to cool the partially exposed cores of units 1, 2 and 3 continue. So long as radiological conditions allow, a team of workers pumps seawater into the reactor vessels. This boils away, raising steam pressure which must later be vented. Fuel assemblies are exposed by between one and two metres at the top, but the high thermal conductivity of the zirconium alloy rod casings helps cooling with just the lower portion of the rods submerged. This process is set to continue until the heat produced by the core has reduced so that the entire core can be covered.

Radiation levels on site are fluctuating, which makes it difficult for engineers to work as well as to analyse the extent of possible damage to various functional systems in the reactor buildings. Venting steam from units 1, 2 and 3 contributes a certain amount which dissipates in a matter of hours. It is thought some emission is the result of damage to unit 2's torus. Any release due to damaged nuclear fuel is unknown.

The peak of radiation on site is near unit 3, where levels of 400 millisieverts per hour have been recorded. Dose limits to workers under emergency regulations have been raised to 250 millisieverts from 100 millisieverts after which they may not return. This compares to usual nuclear worker limits of 20 millisieverts per year.

wrt to spent fuel storage (which, IMO, is a serious cause of concern).. CNN was reporting the helicopters being used to dump water. (about 7-10 tons per trip - the total amount of water in pool is few thousand tons!)

More details: (IAEA)

- About 60% of the total used nuclear fuel from all six reactors is kept in a shared facility, while each of the units also has its own storage pool near the top of the reactor building.
- At unit 4, the reactor itself contains no fuel, this having been removed to the unit's own store over 100 days ago for maintenance work to take place.

- Last known temp was on march 15 (on unit 4) at 84 C.. no data for march 16) (Building 'severely' damaged due to fire - water level low, details "unknown" due to radiation people were not able to go etc..)
- Unit 5 water temp rising (last reading 62.5 C)
- Unit 6 (60 C) (rising)

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 17 Mar 2011 09:11

Do our UAVs have radiation hardening of electronics, may be we need to if they are not already to make measurements in an eventuality.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 17 Mar 2011 09:18

pandyan:

I am speaking from a distance, but there seems to be a massive lack of jugaad.

I read a report some where that some of the DGs or Pumps could not be used because the plugs did not match. Now I am not sure whether it was a DM factor involved (different voltage/amperage ratings); but given the situation they should have ripped open the junction box and just taped up the wires; to hell with the plug. Similarly one DG set supposedly ran out of fuel! I do understand the shortage and all, but I am quite sure that if they had been keeping track, they would have found diesel to run the DG set.

As some posts have alluded to, there seems to be a leadership vacuum in handling the entire crisis.

suryag:

I do not think that radiation form the reactors is going to be an issue with electronics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_hardening

astal · Post by **astal** » 17 Mar 2011 09:19

(This is pure speculation but is a possible explanation why additional power alone may not solve the problem.)

If the Earthquake has damaged pipes and cooling apparatus, no matter how much they pump in, it may not be sufficient. Therefore bringing in additional Diesel, Pumps, Water and Electricity may not help. This is why they are resorting to sea water in desperation. At least there is no limit to the amount available.

Sea water of-course brings its own set of problems. Salts and minerals will be deposited on the pipes leading to further damage. I wonder what the end game will be.

Pump water until the units cool enough to remove the rods.

Remove fuel rods and store in large pools which they should be building and testing now or already have prepared.

(End of speculation from a person with little knowledge of nuclear-physics.)

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 17 Mar 2011 09:44

pandyan wrote:
Theo_Fidel wrote:I still can't believe that they couldn't run a small navy ship into the harbor as a temporary power source. Many of those ships have 20-40 MW power plants that generate electricity.
This would have been a perfect solution. Wonder if they underestimated the problem or were looking for a "trained" solution without out-of-the-box thinking like the one above.

it still surprises me how much we don't know about nuclear energy.

FWIW - For perspective, for questions like these, as someone has pointed it out...

- Power is just one aspect (a broken car may not work even if there is gasoline

- valves/pipes/electrical systems etc may be the problem which caused the emergency.

- If a small navy ship is available on a short notice, using it to rescue tsunami victims, . or powering emergency hospitals/centers would save 100x more lives..JMHO.

---Just keeping the perspective and priorities.. when the disaster is claiming 1000's of lives.

vina · Post by **vina** » 17 Mar 2011 09:57

Amber G. wrote:Very good! (This is why physics is practical to get answers - at least to know the range)
One critical thing is (and it is good news), cooling depends on "boiling the water" which requires much more energy (5 times more than heating it from 20 to 90 degrees)
IOW 4185 joules (per Kg) to raise 1 Deg C)
but 2,240,000 joules (per Kg) to boil 1 Kg (from 100 degree water to 100 degree steam)
(They push the (sea) water, then let it boil and went) ( so you need less water but some how push the water in (inside with steam pressure))

Amber G . A nice Fyzzics answer . That constant heat of boiling is the top end in terms of amount of heat you can transfer out, true.

But the Yin Jin Ear Ring answer will depend on heat transfer rates. To keep the zircon cladding from going Paki and melting, it needs a minimum heat transfer rate away from the cladding. I don't know what and how much boiling is allowed in the BWR (maybe just on the surface/bubble forming kind of stuff, which is efficient), but if you allow full boiling of the coolant and working fluid (same in the BWR), then the heat transfer rates away from the fuel rods will fall and the cladding and fuel temp will rise and can go Paki! Depends on design details of BWR I guess.

The max heat transfer rates are if the water is in liquid state. That is why in PWR /PHWR reactors, the water is pressurized and never allowed to boil! The reason why the BWR is thermodynamically more efficient than the PWR is because in BWR unlike the PWR, there is no heat transfer (which is lossy) from inner loop (which is in contact with the fuel) to the outer loop (which drives the generators).

vina · Post by **vina** » 17 Mar 2011 10:11

Theo_Fidel wrote:Ship based nuclear reactors have caused some horrible nuclear situations. And yes a few such reactors have gone down, mostly submarines.

I am not advocating a ship based reactor which needs enrichment to around 20% levels or so to make it ultra compact to fit into small machinery spaces in subs and ships where the bulk of the space is devoted to mission requirements.

What I am actually talking about is a normal type design that is compacted somewhat and is custom sited underwater in a semi submersible kind of thing . This entire cooling pump and other business of cooling is too risk prone if you depend on a pump and in fact dunking the whole reactor thing under water might be a much safer option. That is all. Something like "gravity stabilized oil rig" (google for it) kind of thing in some 40/50 meter deep water will be fine! No Pakiness possible. No loss of coolant possible. No nothing. The thing cant blow up. Very simple stuff like pressure release valve opening if pressure increases will bring it directly in thermal contact with the sink and cool the "Durvasa" down.

This is very expensive. Also marine reactors are not as efficient as land based ones in converting heat to electricity. The high motion puts limits on turbine efficiency.

The design criteria for a minaturized powerplant for ship and an electric power plant are different. They trade off efficiency for ultra compactness there. You can do much better for a power plant (you can put the turbine on a platform on the surface for eg) . It is just a mindset change. The industry has vested interest in "gradual/incremental change" so that they dont need to do anything fundamentally different and can keep selling tweaked versions of existing designs. No one had any fundamentally radical ideas , except for that Pebble bed reactor kind of thing. Maybe , this is where India /PSU/Socialism kind of thing can work if they can break the mould in totally new pathbreaking ways.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 17 Mar 2011 10:17

US to begin evacuating citizens from Japan

The Chinese are ahead of the curve.

More than 3,000 Chinese have already been evacuated from Japan's northeast to Niigata on Japan's western coast, according to Xinhua News Agency. On Tuesday, Beijing became the first government to organize a mass evacuation of its citizens from the quake-affected area.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 17 Mar 2011 10:19

They are bringing in cabled power from elsewhere..which means they hope to use the existing pumps and the infra to restart the original cooling process...and they are saying they can do that. See latest corrupt narrators narration..

Which means the pumps and infra are, at least in their guess, ok to go only waiting for electricity.

They also saying the normal line is also being restored which means this one mentioned above is a special hurry job..

Let us hope and pray this does the job...if not essentially as per UK nuke head, in 24-48 hrs (of which 12 are gone) we are looking at Chernobyl, god forbid.

How much of the crisis the usual Japanese way of grin and bear it, release no news, save face and so on..will probably come out later, if it ever..

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 17 Mar 2011 10:20

vera_k wrote: The Chinese are ahead of the curve.

Most Chinese cannot be evacuated nor will be willing to...they are illegal...they are the ones selling yakitori under Shinjuku station or running numerous girly bars/massage parlours and noodle shops all over Tokyo...lovely yakitori by the way...cheap too.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 17 Mar 2011 10:37

Doesn't seem like there's any news of Indian evacuations. Hope the government gets a move on.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Mar 2011 10:43

vera_k wrote:Doesn't seem like there's any news of Indian evacuations. Hope the government gets a move on.

Actually there is. In one news item families of IT personnel have been asked to return and today's Whimpoo has a photu of some at an airport in India.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Mar 2011 11:24

some foreign banks and cos like BMW are pulling their office staff. indicates something ugly may be er cooking we dont know of yet. these cos have good links to inside their own Govt circles.

I hope it doesnt blow, apart from the horrible radiation and deaths, the world economy will suffer a massive blow too.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Mar 2011 11:33

Singha wrote:I hope it doesnt blow, apart from the horrible radiation and deaths, the world economy will suffer a massive blow too.

Only a matter of time Sir, a inevitable outcome of underplaying the real issues when there was time still.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Mar 2011 11:53

'saving face' runs deep in all cultures + the need to prevent mass panic and media hysteria.

I do not doubt the US would also have underplayed it if it happened on east coast somewhere.

chinook helis dumping seawater seems like a academic attempt to say 'look we tried all means' if and when the yellow matter hits fan.

sher khan deploying resources to protect its own turf...and yet another C-135 variant crawls out of the woodwork!
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20 ... ing-system

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 17 Mar 2011 13:53

suppiah - have fond memories of shinjuku yakitori... mouth watering already!

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 17 Mar 2011 13:57

the economic impact is also being overhyped. many bank analysts have come back with minimal impact assessments on the economy. the yen has appreciated strongly against the dollar overnight, the affected region contributes <1% to Japanese GDP, most reconstruction will come from private sector funds, government debt will not be impacted. even though the damage is collosal, the Japanese economy has been largely unaffected. however - if large scale power outages/load shedding continues for any serious length of time then there will be a bigger impact. given the overall state of japan, this scenario is quite unlikely

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 17 Mar 2011 13:58

^^ you are referring to same place? Behind the Shinjuku station, some narrow galli with food stalls on both sides?

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 17 Mar 2011 13:58

^^^ oh ya, narrow galli with food stalls!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Mar 2011 14:14

MSNBC:

The U.S. authorized the first evacuations of Americans out of Japan and warned U.S. citizens to defer all non-essential travel to any part of the country as unpredictable weather and wind conditions risked spreading radioactive contamination.

The State Department said the government had chartered aircraft to help Americans leave Japan and had authorized the voluntary departure of family members of diplomatic staff in Tokyo, Nagoya and Yokohama — about 600 people.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Mar 2011 14:21

blogs.nytimes.com

Japan’s Kyodo News reports that the U.S. military plans to deploy “a Global Hawk unmanned high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft, possibly on Thursday, to take images of the inside of the building that houses the No. 4 reactor, according to Japanese government sources.”

That seems to be in line with reported concerns from the Pentagon about trying to help Japan recover from the crisis without exposing American soldiers or their families in the country to radiation.

A Pentagon spokesman said on Wednesday that U.S. military personnel and their families will not be allowed within 50 miles of the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, Reuters reports.

Reuters added that the American military “gave Japanese forces firetrucks and water pumps, but stressed Americans will not operate them.”

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 17 Mar 2011 14:57

there is a wave of panic sweeping through the goras, wondering if it is due to cultural differences
technical reports are stressing again and again that the situation is bad but not terrible

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 17 Mar 2011 17:57

The Fukushima Fifty

fifty guys are working on containment at Fukushima
evoking memories of bushido and duty until death.. lets hope it doesn't come to that

jugaad seems to be on, fire trucks have been hooked up to the cooling system pipes and are pumping in the water... probably the flow rate is not high enough

meanwhile tepco are working to restore the HV grid

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 17 Mar 2011 18:45

Suppiah wrote:With all this exodus going on Tokyo (real or perceived) on the part of the gora community, there is a great chance that remnants of this gora-slave disease which is quite strong in Japan (as in rest of E.Asia) will get cured to a great degree...these people not only criticise and bitch like US is doing now from ivory tower, they also run away at the first sight of trouble like stupid UK and OZ asking its citizens to leave Tokyo when 9-10 million Japs (who are no third world disposables), remain there.

A great opp. for Indians there do some image building...make clear to Japs that we are together..

I sincerely hope when dust settles down, Japs particularly sections of the women community who drool at the sight of anything white in pants..will stop doing so..

It is the obligation of all governments to protect its citizens. It is not extraordinary for countries to plan and conduct evacuations in times of unrest and natural disasters. Expecting the citizens to stay put when they could be in physical danger, when the other option is to evacuate them is not a sign of solidarity. The situation needs trained professionals and relief workers.

India has nuclear experts, right? So the government could consult them and get their opinion (probably it has already done so, if I could think I am sure better people than me would have already thought along these and other lines) and arrive at an independent decision at the danger. If our experts say they do not have enough information to make intelligent decisions, then we are at the mercy of foreign information. We already see the USA officials are more alarmed than the Japanese officials, why? The Indian government also needs to take the media mis-information, alarmists and culture of the countries before making decisions.

Solidarity and image building can be done in other ways than asking our citizens to stay put in case there is real danger.

As far as the 'alarm' among some Western countries, I could think of two things:
1) The danger is real.
2) The danger is exaggerated. Why? Not being the fly on the wall, it is time for CTs:
2.1) The peaceniks, anti-nuclear lobby, progressives ityadi are using the situation to create obstacles for the nuclear-lobby.{fight between two lobbies}
2.2) Fear is good, and media enjoys it. It helps them sell air time.
2.3) They want Japan to go down.*
2.4) Attitude towards Asia and non-whites.

* I added (2.3) as a possibility; but considering the relations between Japan and the West, especially USA; I do not see why USA or any Western power would want Japan to sink. Granted, the West has not helped Japan much in their economic plight, but what is the motivation for them to see Japan suffer? Aren't they friendly allies? One can extend the CT to say, some USA based auto-manufacturers see it the right time to create a dent in Japanese auto-makers. But these auto-makers have plants in USA. And USA sources auto-components from Japan. And with the rising China, India and Japan two democracies, with India's economic rapidly rising and Japan's economy being the 3rd largest will be good balance. So, I am going to dismiss 2.3

After the fire and smoke dies down, it will be interesting to do a post-mortem and see who lied.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 17 Mar 2011 19:14

2.1, 2.2 and 2.4 are the most significant
i thought about 2.3, but it is very unlikely given dragon's rise
2.4 is more subliminimal than active in the case of Japan, but its there

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Mar 2011 19:21

The one party most vehement about the extent of real issue is France which is openly saying that the reality is far worse and Japan is hiding things.

What is their stake?

No its real. Sorry boys, my first post still holds and is getting proven by the day.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 17 Mar 2011 19:47

Mujahids, I am operating on the assumption that even in bad case, it is not so bad as it is made out to be...here is some corroboration from a UK scientist..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-1 ... ys-1-.html

After the Chernobyl blast, which killed more than 31 workers and firefighters, health problems stemming from direct radiation exposure didn’t extend beyond a 30-kilometer exclusion zone, Hilary Walker, deputy director of emergency preparedness at the U.K. Department of Health, said during the call.

Tokyo is 250km away...so clearly there is some needless paranoia and typical western tendency to exaggerate going on..

In this reasonable worst case, you get an explosion,” he said. “Now, that’s really serious, but it’s serious again for the local area. It’s not serious for elsewhere.”

And we have idiots in oz and canada asking whether they would get radiation.

Anyways, like I said, there are 9m Japs living there, they are not third world disposables, they are the type that wipe the pen twice with anti-bacterial tissue before using another person's and if they are ok we are ok. I would not say this if the accident were at Jakarta or Manila.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Mar 2011 20:01

Suppiah wrote:Mujahids, I am operating on the assumption that even in bad case, it is not so bad as it is made out to be...here is some corroboration from a UK scientist..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-1 ... ys-1-.html

After the Chernobyl blast, which killed more than 31 workers and firefighters, health problems stemming from direct radiation exposure didn’t extend beyond a 30-kilometer exclusion zone, Hilary Walker, deputy director of emergency preparedness at the U.K. Department of Health, said during the call.
.

Sorry boss Anglo-Saxon media is UNDERPLAYING and not overplaying the issue. For chernobyl

THE ABOVE STATEMENT IS A LIE (this is a partial list of DISTANT events)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster

* Down syndrome (trisomy 21). In West Berlin, Germany, prevalence of Down syndrome (trisomy 21) peaked 9 months following the main fallout.[ 11, 12] Between 1980 and 1986, the birth prevalence of Down syndrome was quite stable (i.e., 1.35–1.59 per 1,000 live births [27–31 cases]). In 1987, 46 cases were diagnosed (prevalence = 2.11 per 1,000 live births). Most of the excess resulted from a cluster of 12 cases among children born in January 1987. The prevalence of Down syndrome in 1988 was 1.77, and in 1989, it reached pre-Chernobyl values. The authors noted that the isolated geographical position of West Berlin prior to reunification, the free genetic counseling, and complete coverage of the population through one central cytogenetic laboratory support completeness of case ascertainment; in addition, constant culture preparation and analysis protocols ensure a high quality of data.

* Chromosomal aberrations. Reports of structural chromosome aberrations in people exposed to fallout in Belarus and other parts of the former Soviet Union, Austria, and Germany argue against a simple dose-response relationship between degree of exposure and incidence of aberrations. These findings are relevant because a close relationship exists between chromosome changes and congenital malformations. Inasmuch as some types of aberrations are almost specific for ionizing radiation, researchers use aberrations to assess exposure dose. On the basis of current coefficients, however, one cannot assume that calculation of individual exposure doses resulting from fallout would not induce measurable rates of chromosome aberrations.

* Neural tube defects (NTDs) in Turkey. During the embryonic phase of fetal development, the neural tube differentiates into the brain and spinal cord (i.e., collectively forming the central nervous system). Chemical or physical interactions with this process can cause NTDs. Common features of this class of malformations are more or less extended fissures, often accompanied by consecutive dislocation of central nervous system (CNS) tissue. NTDs include spina bifida occulta and aperta, encephalocele, and—in the extreme case—anencephaly. The first evidence in support of a possible association between CNS malformations and fallout from Chernobyl was published by Akar et al.. in 1988. The Mustafakemalpasa State Hospital, Bursa region, covers a population of approximately 90,000. Investigators have documented the prevalence of malformations since 1983. The prevalence of NTDs was 1.7 to 9.2 per 1,000 births, but during the first 6 months of 1987 increased to 20 per 1,000 (12 cases). The excess was most pronounced for the subgroup of anencephalics, in which prevalence increased 5-fold (i.e., 10 per 1,000 [6 cases]). In the consecutive months that followed (i.e., July–December 1987), the prevalence decreased again (1.3 per 1,000 for all NTDs, 0.6 per 1,000 for anencephaly), and it reached pre-Chernobyl levels during the first half of 1988 (all NTDs: 0.6 per 1,000; anencephaly: 0.2 per 1,000). This initial report was supported by several similar findings in observational studies from different regions of Turkey.[citation needed]

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 17 Mar 2011 20:10

the chernobyl accident, leakage, radiation type and disaster management were all markedly different from fukushima.

incidentally, france has sent 93 tonnes of boron to help with containment. merkel is using it to play domestic politics, she has a big green opposition movement to deal with... games continue

sankuji, you are turning evanjehadi about this topic!

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 17 Mar 2011 20:32

Sanku, let us assume that the expert, who has no ax to grind is aware of something that even Wikipedia has on front page. My guess is it is not just us, there are other countries that are blessed with Medha-vis, Rundi-Dotties, Vandal-annas and the like...Give $1m and next time a Paki NGO will come with a study that shows all male children born in the 5 years after the Chernobyl in Lahore had shorter Benises..

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Mar 2011 20:34

Lalmohan wrote: sankuji, you are turning evanjehadi about this topic!

Possible, I plead guilty, but given the massive silence of what the real situation is by Japanese govt coupled with dramatic displays by the nuclear plant to show that the Govt was lying (within hours of Japanese Govt) making a statement give me no hope.

Add to this TEPCO well documented penchenat for not being truthful in the past as well the Japanese obsession with "face" not letting them take drastic measures when needed and trying to salvage the situation where more dire steps are needed.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Mar 2011 20:37

Suppiah wrote:Sanku, let us assume that the expert, who has no ax to grind is aware of something that even Wikipedia has on front page..

Sirji THE MAN who was in charge of Chernobyl clean up has had some very interesting things to say about the clean up his fellow experts and the situation at Fukushima.

That was posted in the nuke thread.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 17 Mar 2011 20:51

sankuji, you dont have all the facts either... no? you are also extrapolating

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Mar 2011 20:56

Lalmohan wrote:sankuji, you dont have all the facts either... no? you are also extrapolating

I wish I could claim full credit for the extrapolation to use "I told you so later"

But what I am saying is that the given the lack of clear facts by formal govt and presence of supporting evidence, the French view looks very credible.

And yes I am making my own personal projections as well, but thats pretty limited (and I am only a poster on BRF not the Japanese govt so yeah I get it easier)