Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

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vijaykarthik
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by vijaykarthik »

Should be interesting to see how the Greek people respond. I fully expect a few riots, a few disruptions in the parliament / govt, few removals of leaders and so on.

The fun has just begun. Merkel has made a terrible mistake of brushing France, Italy et al away. Agreed that they have a lot of support from E Europe [Finland etc] and E Europe is v worried about Russia now. But making a country bend and expect it to notionally give up its national sovereignty, particularly a few days after a referendum which said NO to that, is not something that the public will look at so happily.

tusk doesn't want a deal to not get done. But the deal is DoA. What will about 80 bn over 3 years do to Greece? Nothing. Just push the can a few meters down the road. Come the next bend and people will realize that there is no road ahead.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Satya_anveshi »

US media in general is dissing the deal (and dissing Euro). As they say....haath dho ke..

Greece has surrendered, but Europe has lost, too

Dodging bankruptcy comes at a price for Greece

Greece Bailout Deal: Crisis Leaves Country Running Out of Fruit

A Humiliating Deal for Greece

US speaking thru IMF asking Euro's to take bigger haircut :lol:
I.M.F. Demands Greece Debt Relief as Condition for Bailout


This is somewhat diff take
Greece Needs the Euro
Satya_anveshi
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Satya_anveshi »

From a ZH oped wrote:As of this moment the IMF is telling Greece that if nothing changes, it will die of cancer with 100% certainty; on the other hand the Eurogroup is telling Greece it will die of a heart attack also wih 100% certainty if anything changes.
During referendum, I had this thought but withheld posting as it was crass but above analogy reminded me for its similarity:

Greece people had/ still has two choices (both to be exercised against their wish): a)Get F'd by your own people 200 times real hard over next two years b) Get F'd by Euros 500 times slowly over next 5 years with option to switch to a.

a is if G gets out of Euro
b is if it G stays in Euro
vijaykarthik
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by vijaykarthik »

^ there is nothing called staying in Euro. b will eventually lead to a. Lets remember; they have come to all the bends. This bend is the mother of all bends. Its only bend over from here. And I think Tsipiras is asking for almost that. No way this deal is going to last.

The financial aspect of this deal is dead. 80bn euros wont change the damn grim scenario. Greece needs to get out. As simple as that. And I cant, for the life of me, understand why Tsipiras is not allowing that to happen. There is some power that's there in the room (that's not defined properly) that we arent getting clearly.

Simply put, the concept of a united Europe boat has sailed. The memory can remain and people can pull all stops to make it seem as if alls well. But it surely isn't and pushing it a bit more down the road is just like fooling yourself that the somehow the next day sun wont rise.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Philip »

Athens to vote as IMF warns Greece needs extra debt relief above bailout

Fund’s leaked debt sustainability report shows that Greece’s public debt is likely to peak at 200% of national income within the next two years

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... ebt-relief
Larry Elliott, and Helena Smith in Athens
Tuesday 14 July 2015
The International Monetary Fund has warned that Greece will require far more generous debt relief than is currently on offer from its creditors, as MPs in Athens prepare for a crucial vote on Wednesday on a new bailout plan. An IMF report leaked to Reuters shows that Greece’s public debt is likely to peak at 200% of its national income within the next two years, with the risk that the actual outcome could be even worse.

The debt sustainability analysis comes on the eve of a crucial vote in the Greek parliament, when the prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, will seek approval for the fresh austerity measures demanded by the eurozone in return for a three-year rescue package worth up to €86bn (£61bn).

The report highlights the IMF’s scepticism about Greece’s ability to meet the ultra-tough budget targets insisted upon by its European creditors, and suggests that Athens should receive a 30-year grace period before it has to start paying off its debts.

Greek bailout: Angela Merkel accused of blackmailing Athens

Putting into question the fund’s involvement in the bailout, the report paints a far darker picture of Greece’s public finances than that contained in the blueprint released at the end of the marathon eurozone leaders’ summit on Monday. “The dramatic deterioration in debt sustainability points to the need for debt relief on a scale that would need to go well beyond what has been under consideration to date – and what has been proposed by the ESM,” the IMF said, referring to the European stability mechanism bailout fund, which will be used to bankroll the Greek bailout.

The IMF last issued an update on Greece two weeks ago, but its new assessment comes after a period when cash withdrawals from banks have been limited to €60 a day and businesses have been starved of working capital.

The closure of banks and the introduction of capital controls were “extracting a heavy toll on the banking system and the economy, leading to a further significant deterioration in debt sustainability relative to what was projected in our recently published DSA,” the IMF said.
Analysis/ Athens parliament: where do MPs stand over the Greek bailout deal?

The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, must rely on the support of parties outside his coalition if the measures are to be approved by the house

Two weeks ago, the fund estimated that Greek debt would peak at 177% of GDP and fall to 142% by 2022. It now believes the debt ratio will still be 170% in 2022 after hitting a peak of 200%.

The IMF has consistently urged deeper debt relief throughout the Greek crisis, but has met resistance from European finance ministers, who have been unwilling to make their taxpayers pay the cost of a write down. Tsipras has also insisted that debt relief must form an important part of the package, but a statement by Eurozone leaders on Monday said only that further measures might be taken provided Greece adhered in full to the reforms demanded by its creditors.

Alexis Tsipras aims to steer eurozone bailout plan through Greek parliament

In the leaked report, the IMF says that Greece’s debts threaten to be unsustainable for decades, and that its financing needs will rise so that they are above the 15% of national income level deemed safe. The IMF adds that unless European creditors agree to an extended grace period, they face the choice of either annual transfers to the Greek budget, or “deep upfront haircuts”, the term for the cancellation of part of the debt. IMF sources confirmed that an updated debt sustainability analysis had been prepared by staff and would be discussed by the organisation’s executive board.

Unless the IMF can convince itself that Greece’s debts are sustainable, it would be forbidden by its own rules to put money into a new bailout. The assumption has been that the fund would provide €16.4bn – around 25% of the total – with the rest coming from the ESM.

The European commission, one of Greece’s three creditors alongside the IMF and the European Central Bank, sought to play down the report. A commission spokeswoman said that the IMF and the commission had together signed off on a different debt sustainability document. This was the paper sent to eurozone finance ministers on Saturday and formed the basis for the bailout agreement signed off by eurozone leaders on Monday morning, she said.

Reports of renewed IMF concerns came as Tsipras tried to convince dissident MPs in his own Syriza party to back another round of austerity. Ahead of the make-or-break vote in Athens’s parliament, Tsipras held back-to-back meetings as he attempted to rally support for measures at total variance with the rationale of his radical left party. Creditors have given the Greek government until Wednesday to push controversial reforms, including sales tax increases and pension reforms, through parliament.

Appalled by Tsipras’s volte-face, an estimated 35 Syriza MPs signalled on Tuesday night that they would vote against the measures, arguing that the “recessionary policies” will only worsen the record levels of poverty and unemployment Greece has already suffered. Panagiotis Lafazanis, the energy minister who heads Syriza’s Left Platform, implored the prime minister to turn down the terms. He called the proposals the work of “economic murderers” intent on destroying Greece.

History shows how the Greek crisis could pan out

Letters: Thucydides’ account of the Melian dialogue is pertinent; within a few years the Athenian empire was at an end. Unless the EU moves away from neoliberalism it will also collapse

Even if it was endorsed by the 300-seat House with the help of opposition parties – as seems likely – “it will never be passed by the people who effectively will eradicate it with their unity and struggles,” Lafazanis said.

With Tsipras’ own position looking increasingly vulnerable, the country appears headed for fresh political tumult. On Tuesday night government insiders insisted the prime minister had no intention of standing down, saying he would probably attempt to clear the political terrain with a cabinet reshuffle on Thursday.

Tsipras told public television last night: “The worst thing a captain could do while he is steering a ship during a storm, as difficult as it is, would be to abandon the helm.”

But if losses are heavy, and he loses his parliamentary majority, the young leader might also be forced to from a cross-party government of national unity.

“Political developments inside Syriza will be rapid and dramatic,” said professor Dimitris Keridis who teaches political science at Athens’ Panteion University.

“But we will see a realignment in Greek parliamentary politics in support of the deal which, hopefully, will be cathartic and provide stability,” he said. “Tsipras is being asked to pay for the sins of a previous political class. The great irony is a radical leftist will now have to impose all the reforms that were never passed before, neo-liberal measures that he has always opposed.”

The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party quickly sought to capitalise on the popular anger that the deal is bound to unleash. “Golden Dawn will resist the new memorandum that the government of the left will sign with the complete support of New Democracy, To Potami and Pasok,” said the organisation’s leader Nikos Michaloliakos, referring to the opposition parties. “An avalanche of taxes is coming. New annihilating measures that will mainly affect the country’s youth, that will increase unemployment and hit farmers who are the soul of the nation, are coming. From every place in this land the battle will continue … so that the plans of foreign rule are not passed.”

Wriitng off part of the Greek debt is inevitable.there is no way that Greece can pay back its massive debts and the 30 yr. ,opratorium that the IMF is advising is perhaps the only way in which the Eurozone and EU can stay together.The EU has to accept the sad fact of life that some nations pull their weight much less than the Germans .If they want European unity and no descent into nationalism again,that brought about two world wars that devastated Europe, then the hard working states must allow the lazy ones to also "sip from the well". How many proud ancient states will allow themselves to be treated like economic slaves?
vijaykarthik
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by vijaykarthik »

^ Ditto with natural resources. Its a matter of time before people will rise up even in arms if required in other places too because of lack of resources there. Say for ex, Yemen / Libya. With water / most critical resources out what else can the people do but not search for better "pastures". Regardless of whether there are borders / visas and such.

In this case, I fully expect a lot of intelligent and capable Greeks to go out of Greece and perhaps move to other regions inside Europe. And If that happens in large scales, then who takes care of the old debts?

I don't think EU / ECB / related European idiots have done a fair estimation of this and they are still in cuckoo land. IMF is at least trying to address the issue currently. Not that they are morally right / capable of doing this. But that's a different story altogether.

There is but one solution - allow the Greeks to devalue and go back to Drachma. If it means its Russian / Chinese influence, so be it. Else, if its not acceptable, pay the 320 bn or whatever is reqd and not make such a stupid mess. Reckon Germany is yet to understand that clearly. It should be mentioned quite clearly to them.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Neshant »

The IMF has consistently urged deeper debt relief throughout the Greek crisis, but has met resistance from European finance ministers, who have been unwilling to make their taxpayers pay the cost of a write down.
Ain't it great how private bankers have transferred their bad Greek loans to the taxpayer over the past 5 years.

Its now not the banks taking a write-down but the taxpayer who has to have his belt tightened to pay for it.

This is by far the biggest scam yet not one news source is reporting on how the public suddenly owes this debt which banks offloaded onto the nation.

Banking is a scam not an industry. It produces nothing of value and worse yet, steals a lot from productive society.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Philip »

Banking is a scam not an industry. It produces nothing of value and worse yet, steals a lot from productive society. :mrgreen:

Yes,even in the Indian context,the larger the amount in question,the greater leverage and kid gloves the debtor receives from the lending institution.Look at Vijay Mallya for instance!

Many years ago the late American satirist,Art Buchwald wrote a marvelous piece about lending money.It went something like this.
Bob borrows $200 from Ted. John goes to his local bank manager and borrows $2500 for his small business. The Hardup Brothers borrow $2 million for their auto chain.The Bogus Corp. borrows $50million for its global expansion from Citibank and the state of Costa Racketeer borrows $1billion from the IMF. You want to know what happened to the loans?

Bob after much cajoling finally pays Ted the $200. John's small business folds up and he has to sell his car to pay back the bank loan. The Hardup brothers business collapses and they file for bankruptcy.The Bogus Corp. bosses embezzle millions and flee to a S.American country,while the state of Costa Racketeer ,unable to repay their loan,the money swallowed up by the dictator and his cronies,reschedule their debt for 30 years after extensive negotiations with the IMF,WB and a consortium of bankers!

Moral of the story.If you want to borrow,borrow BIG and don't worry about repaying it.it will be rescheduled.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Philip »

Secret IMF report that the EU prevented from being published before the Greek referendum.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/1 ... C920150714
Secret IMF report - Greece needs debt relief far beyond EU plans
Reuters/Yannis Behrakis


Greece will need far bigger debt relief than euro zone partners have been prepared to envisage so far due to the devastation of its economy and banks in the last two weeks, a confidential study by the International Monetary Fund seen by Reuters shows.


The updated debt sustainability analysis (DSA) was sent to euro zone governments late on Monday, hours after Athens and its 18 partners agreed in principle to open negotiations on a third bailout programme of up to 86 billion euros in return for tougher austerity measures and structural reforms.

"The dramatic deterioration in debt sustainability points to the need for debt relief on a scale that would need to go well beyond what has been under consideration to date - and what has been proposed by the ESM," the IMF said, referring to the European Stability Mechanism bailout fund.

The fund released the document on Tuesday in Washington after it had been seen by Reuters and other news organizations.

A senior IMF official said late on Tuesday that the debt relief would give Greece a chance to recover and would be needed if the fund was to stay involved with any new Greek program.

"I don't think this is a gimmick or kicking the can down the road," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "This is a dramatic measure to take the entire European stock (of debt) and reprofile it," so the country has a chance of "getting some growth back."

European countries would have to give Greece a 30-year grace period on servicing all its European debt, including new loans, and a very dramatic maturity extension, or else make explicit annual fiscal transfers to the Greek budget or accept "deep upfront haircuts" on their loans to Athens, the report said.

It was leaked as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble disclosed that some members of the Berlin government thought Greece would have been better off taking "time-out" from the euro zone rather than receiving another giant bailout.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde attended weekend talks among euro zone finance ministers and government leaders that agreed on a roadmap for a new bailout. An EU source said the new debt sustainability figures were given to euro zone finance ministers on Saturday and were known by the leaders before they concluded Monday's deal with Athens.

The IMF study said the closure of Greek banks and imposition of capital controls on June 29 was "extracting a heavy toll on the banking system and the economy, leading to a further significant deterioration in debt sustainability relative to what was projected in our recently published DSA".

European members of the IMF's executive board tried in vain to stop the publication of that earlier study on July 2 just three days before a Greek referendum that rejected earlier bailout terms, sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his former finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, seized on the IMF study as vindicating their argument that the proposed bailout was unsustainable and that Greece was right to demand debt relief.

The latest IMF study said Greek debt would now peak at close to 200 percent of economic output in the next two years, compared to a previously forecast high of 177 percent.

Even by 2022, the debt would stand at 170 percent of gross domestic product, compared to an estimate of 142 percent issued just two weeks ago.

Gross financing needs would rise to above the 15 percent of GDP threshold deemed safe and continue rising in the long term, the updated IMF study said.

Moreover, the latest projections "remain subject to considerable downside risk", meaning that euro zone countries might have to provide even more exceptional financing.

In the laconic technocratic language of IMF officialdom, the report noted that few countries had ever managed to sustain for several decades the primary budget surplus of 3.5 percent of GDP expected of Greece. As soon as Athens had swung into a small surplus before debt service last year, the government had failed to resist political pressure to ease the target, it noted.

The IMF study also appeared to challenge the assumption by some European officials that Greece will be able to meet some of its financing needs from the markets in 2018.


"Borrowing at anything but AAA rates in the near term will bring about an unsustainable debt dynamic for the next several decades," it said.
Satya_anveshi
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Satya_anveshi »

Following is from Wash Post article I linked above (interested folks check it out if not done already):
But if Europe needs to forge an even closer union, where rich countries transfer money to poor ones, to make its currency union work, why wouldn't it? After all, it's spent the past 60 years trying to get to this very point. It started with the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951 as a way to make war impossible. It continued with the euro in 1999 as a paper monument to peace and prosperity that was supposed to secure both. And the next step is, or was supposed to be, a United States of Europe. Now, if it sounds like a bad idea to create a currency that was bound to create a crisis as a pretext for creating a central government, well, that's because it is. But that's what Europe has done. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble just said that they knew constructing "a monetary union without fiscal and political union would be a risky business" but they went ahead because, as he explained, "if we had waited to create political union first, monetary union would never have happened." So, again, why would Europe let this crisis go to waste?
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by vijaykarthik »

^ but I ask again - what union is it if its not a trade and political union? If it weren't a political union, why does EU always say that its reprehensible to go against EU while it comes to a coordinated sanctions against Russia?
Why does the EU balk if there is not a clear consensus when there is a statement made? All murmurs are within the walls and not to be vetoed and so on.

Its quite intriguing that a few don't call the EU a political union. Or is it that Wolfgang actually thinks that they can have one single authority which can rule / overrule about 18-22 nation states for it to be a technical pol union?
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Satya_anveshi »

^^ it is union alright in all aspects as you mention (monetary, trade, and political) but of varying strength in each of those aspects. Monetary is/was strongest and then trade and then political.

Those weaker aspects are getting tested now.

One of the links above makes an interesting point that Germany, being largely an export driven economy with huge manufacturing base, was to have strongest currency by nature of its economy. It is/was imperative for it to be weaker so it can sustain its economy and stay competitive. Supporting some free loaders in its periphery who will in turn support it back was necessary cost in its design of Euro. But only to an extent not to where Greece took it to. It also gave it geopolitical clout.

In that sense, it is medium to long term economic threat (and even national security threat) for Germany if members abandon Euro.

the key word in Wolfgang's quote is 'waited'..."if we had waited to create political union...". I take it to mean that they are now going to plug that hole and try creating a stronger political union. Not going to happen in this stressed atmosphere.
vijaykarthik
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by vijaykarthik »

Exactly. Germany needs 2 things [ditto China]:
a. A large pool of countries who can buy their stuff. They are hugely export driven. --> which ideally means trade w/o tariffs, no quotas and so on.
b. A predominantly depressed currency. That will ensure that even if there is a wage pressure [which actually isn't very true in Germany, but lately there is a slightly higher wage pressure, from what I see] and lack of enough productive efficiency improvements; they can still export their way out of any kind of problem.

Now Germany suddenly believes that its (almost) all Greece's / periphery's fault while in reality this madness couldn't have been going on in the first place once the recession came up. A recession is always a time for rebalancing and not allowing them [Greece, PIIGS, any country which has a problem]to have a fiscal way to get away from this mess (more govt expenditure) takes away the most effective way of countering the recession.

I don't think a pol union is ever possible from here. Germany has overplayed its hand. Besides, the way they have gone w/o paying a lot of heed to the just concerns of France / Italy, it looks more and more ridiculous. EU was always about the Germans and most knew it. But it was also about Franco-German unity and understanding. With Germany overplaying its hand and making it so obvious, France has a lot of thinking to do.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by chanakyaa »

..One of the links above makes an interesting point that Germany, being largely an export driven economy with huge manufacturing base, was to have strongest currency by nature of its economy. It is/was imperative for it to be weaker so it can sustain its economy and stay competitive. Supporting some free loaders in its periphery who will in turn support it back was necessary cost in its design of Euro. But only to an extent not to where Greece took it to. It also gave it geopolitical clout.

In that sense, it is medium to long term economic threat (and even national security threat) for Germany if members abandon Euro.
..
Why majority of Greeks (65-75%), depending on the poll, want to stay in Euro if Germany's evil scheme and Euro being all about Germany, according to some claims, is so obvious? They have enough national resource to take short term pain while switching back to Drachma. Why all the drama, just to end it by accepting all the terms?
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Satya_anveshi »

udaym wrote:Why majority of Greeks (65-75%), depending on the poll, want to stay in Euro if Germany's evil scheme and Euro being all about Germany, according to some claims, is so obvious? They have enough national resource to take short term pain while switching back to Drachma. Why all the drama, just to end it by accepting all the terms?
It has something to do with choosing Cancer over Heart Attack.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Philip »

Riots in Athens ,protests against the deal.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/j ... er-consent
EU ministers begin drive to deliver bailout as Greece gives bitter consent

Eurozone finance ministers must find €7bn in stopgap funding and gain approval from other parliaments including Germany’s Bundestag after Athens vote
Helena Smith and Emma Graham-Harrison in Athens, Ben Quinn, Heather Stewart, Graeme Wearden, Warren Murray and agencies

Thursday 16 July 2015
Eurozone bailout deal: what do ordinary Greeks think?

Eurozone finance ministers are to begin discussions on delivering Greece’s bailout after MPs in Athens adopted the contentious package, amid angry scenes in parliament and violent clashes on the streets.

The Eurogroup of finance ministers is due to hold a conference call to discuss the situation at 8.00 GMT (9.00 BST) on Thursday, as they scramble to assemble a short-term financing package – expected to be worth about €7bn – to keep Greece afloat until the new bailout can be finalised.

The European Central Bank is also making its scheduled policy statement later and will be holding its normal press conference at 13.45 BST. ECB head Mario Draghi will face questioning on what the central bank intends to do about its emergency liquidity assistance for Greek banks. It could ease its funding squeeze on Athens by increasing funding, but any move is likely to be modest.

Street violence erupted in Athens on Wednesday while Greek politicians voted on the harsh reforms demanded by their European partners to qualify for a third bailout of up to €86bn.

Even with the deal accepted by Alexis Tsipras’s Greek government and the parliament, MPs in euro states are yet to give the green light. Germany’s Bundestag is set to vote on the plan on Friday and tough talks to finalise the bailout, expected to take much of the summer, can only begin after that.

Hours before the Athens vote, the French national assembly voted overwhelmingly in favour of starting negotiations for the third bailout.

If a deal is reached, eurozone governments will contribute €40bn-€50bn and the IMF will contribute another chunk, with the rest coming from selling off state assets and from financial market
Live/ Greek debt crisis: ECB and Eurogroup consider next steps after yes vote - live
Eurogroup to discuss bridging loan and ECB considers lifting emergency bank funding

Tsipras faced a revolt over the reforms from his radical-left ruling Syriza party, which came to power in January on anti-austerity promises. But the Athens parliament eventually carried the bill on Wednesday night by 229 politicians in favour, 64 against and six abstentions.

The threat of Athens being forcibly ejected from the eurozone appeared to focus minds, with more MPs voting in favour of austerity reforms than at any other time in Greece’s crisis.

In a vote that saw tensions soar in and outside parliament, Syriza suffered huge losses as 40 MPs revolted against the measures, but pro-European opposition parties delivered their support.

The outcome will significantly weaken Tsipras as the scale of the rebellion sinks in. Stripped of its working majority, the Syriza-dominated, two-party coalition will struggle to enforce the pension cuts and VAT increases outlined in the deal, or to implement any other legislation outside it.

Still, there was relief that the Greek parliament had overwhelmingly supported reforms to ensure that talks on a third bailout can begin.

“The national parliament sent the message that it had to send to Europe,” said Vangelis Meimarakis, the interim leader of the conservative main opposition New Democracy party.

Tsipras was opposed by leading members of his party, including the former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis who resigned the post before last week’s bailout talks. On Wednesday night, at the height of the parliamentary drama in Athens, Nadia Valavani, the deputy finance minister, also resigned, saying it was impossible for her to keep serving in the government.

The prospect of Greece plunging into political turmoil will be heightened by speculation that Tsipras may be forced to call early elections. A cabinet reshuffle predicted for Thursday could see him remove objectors but also potentially leave him struggling to govern effectively.

There was sporadic violence in central Athens as riot police fired teargas and fought running battles with anti-austerity protesters armed with molotov cocktails.

As helicopters circled over Syntagma Square, dozens of petrol bombs were thrown in some of the most serious violence in the Greek capital for two years.

Thousands of people took part in a series of otherwise peaceful marches to protest against the deep austerity cuts imposed as conditions of the bailout.

As the protests unfolded, Christine Lagarde, the director of the International Monetary Fund, hinted that Greece’s creditors were moving closer to the idea of debt relief, although she added that writing off a portion of the the debt - a haircut - remains off the table.

“I have some hope because I understand as late as a couple of hours ago there were some more positive noises to that principle of debt restructuring,” she told CNN.

“One way has to be found in order to release that burden and allow that country to demonstrate yes it can be back on a sustainable path.”

The IMF has told eurozone countries that Greece needs far more generous debt relief than what is on offer. It thinks Athens should receive a 30-year grace period before it has to start paying off its debts.


Meanwhile, the US is likely to continue to urge eurozone leaders to seal the deal on Greece. The US treasury secretary, Jack Lew, flew into Frankfurt for a meeting with Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank.

Draghi is expected to face tough questions about the ECB’s role when he holds a press conference after its regular interest rate-setting policy meeting.

The European commission confirmed it planned to tap the European Financial Stability Mechanism, the ­EU-wide bailout fund, to meet part of the cost of a bridging loan, putting the UK on the hook for just over 15% of it. George Osborne, Britain’s chancellor, demanded that eurozone countries indemnify the Treasury against any losses if the UK is forced to contribute.

Agence France-Presse contributed to this report
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Philip »

The IMF's analysis and recommendations were kept secret by the EU political and banking mafia and should've been made openly to the world so that everyone,who now know anyway,that Greece will NEVER be able to pay its debts!

Solution: Sell Greek treasures of antiquity to well-heeled Yanquis,Oily-garchs,sheikhs,etc.Privatise the Parthenon to Microsoft,lease out ports and naval bases to the Russians in exchange for free oil and gas and send unemployed Greeks to work in Vladivostok on construction projects just as the Chinese are doing! We don't have any Greek restaurants in India too.I miss my dolmas and baklava.They could also export Metaxa,Ouzo,etc. Our tipplers will enjoy them.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 91883.html
Greece was last night bracing itself for serious civil unrest as MPs passed a bill to implement major economic reforms demanded by creditors in return for a bailout.

The International Monetary Fund’s shock admission that Greece could not hope to repay its debts fuelled public anger, and earlier in the day strikes and protests closed metro stations and brought city centre traffic to a standstill.

But as MPs prepared to vote, anarchist protesters outside the parliament building hurled rocks and petrol bombs at riot police who responded with teargas.

The sense of crisis had been heightened by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras claiming the bailout he negotiated on Greece’s behalf was a deal he did “not believe in”.

Riot police stand among petrol bombs thrown by anti-austerity demonstrators in front of the Greek parliament (Reuters) Riot police stand among petrol bombs thrown by anti-austerity demonstrators in front of the Greek parliament (Reuters)

Riot police run as they disperse protesters during clashes in Athens on July 15 (Reuters) Riot police run as they disperse protesters during clashes in Athens on July 15 (Reuters)

Once news emerged around 2am local time that Mr Tsipras had succeeded in gaining parliamentary approval for austerity measures he’d condemned only weeks earlier, following a debate, tensions rose again among the thousands outside in Syntagma Square.

An overwhelming majority in the Greek parliament passed the bill, which amounts to a parliamentary agreement to capitulate to Eurozone leaders' demands.

As has been common in this crisis, the deadline for the vote overran - it was planned to occur at midnight, but took place two hours later than that as a string of MPs, including Mr Tsipras, took to the podium to give their opinions on the situation.

Amongst the reforms that have now been agreed to are a privatisation of Greece's national electricity network, cuts to the generous pension system, and a major overhaul of the tax system, which is aimed at collecting more tax money from citizens.

Saying 'Yes' to the deal was essential for Greece, as they are the conditions of their new bailout, which will keep Greece functioning economically after the crisis of the last few months. Declining this offer would almost certainly lead to economic collapse and Greece being forced out of the euro.

However, the conditions of the bailout are similar to the kind of austerity measures that Greeks rejected in the referendum on 5 July.

Eurozone finance ministers are to begin discussions on delivering Greece’s bailout after MPs in Athens adopted the contentious package, amid angry scenes in parliament and violent clashes on the streets.

The Eurogroup of finance ministers is due to hold a conference call to discuss the situation at 8.00 GMT (9.00 BST) on Thursday, as they scramble to assemble a short-term financing package – expected to be worth about €7bn – to keep Greece afloat until the new bailout can be finalised.

The European Central Bank is also making its scheduled policy statement later and will be holding its normal press conference at 13.45 BST. ECB head Mario Draghi will face questioning on what the central bank intends to do about its emergency liquidity assistance for Greek banks. It could ease its funding squeeze on Athens by increasing funding, but any move is likely to be modest.

Street violence erupted in Athens on Wednesday while Greek politicians voted on the harsh reforms demanded by their European partners to qualify for a third bailout of up to €86bn.

Even with the deal accepted by Alexis Tsipras’s Greek government and the parliament, MPs in euro states are yet to give the green light. Germany’s Bundestag is set to vote on the plan on Friday and tough talks to finalise the bailout, expected to take much of the summer, can only begin after that.

Hours before the Athens vote, the French national assembly voted overwhelmingly in favour of starting negotiations for the third bailout.


If a deal is reached, eurozone governments will contribute €40bn-€50bn and the IMF will contribute another chunk, with the rest coming from selling off state assets and from financial markets.








Live/ Greek debt crisis: ECB and Eurogroup consider next steps after yes vote - live

Eurogroup to discuss bridging loan and ECB considers lifting emergency bank funding




Read more

Tsipras faced a revolt over the reforms from his radical-left ruling Syriza party, which came to power in January on anti-austerity promises. But the Athens parliament eventually carried the bill on Wednesday night by 229 politicians in favour, 64 against and six abstentions.

The threat of Athens being forcibly ejected from the eurozone appeared to focus minds, with more MPs voting in favour of austerity reforms than at any other time in Greece’s crisis.

In a vote that saw tensions soar in and outside parliament, Syriza suffered huge losses as 40 MPs revolted against the measures, but pro-European opposition parties delivered their support.

The outcome will significantly weaken Tsipras as the scale of the rebellion sinks in. Stripped of its working majority, the Syriza-dominated, two-party coalition will struggle to enforce the pension cuts and VAT increases outlined in the deal, or to implement any other legislation outside it.

Still, there was relief that the Greek parliament had overwhelmingly supported reforms to ensure that talks on a third bailout can begin.

“The national parliament sent the message that it had to send to Europe,” said Vangelis Meimarakis, the interim leader of the conservative main opposition New Democracy party.

Tsipras was opposed by leading members of his party, including the former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis who resigned the post before last week’s bailout talks. On Wednesday night, at the height of the parliamentary drama in Athens, Nadia Valavani, the deputy finance minister, also resigned, saying it was impossible for her to keep serving in the government.




The prospect of Greece plunging into political turmoil will be heightened by speculation that Tsipras may be forced to call early elections. A cabinet reshuffle predicted for Thursday could see him remove objectors but also potentially leave him struggling to govern effectively.

There was sporadic violence in central Athens as riot police fired teargas and fought running battles with anti-austerity protesters armed with molotov cocktails.

As helicopters circled over Syntagma Square, dozens of petrol bombs were thrown in some of the most serious violence in the Greek capital for two years.

Thousands of people took part in a series of otherwise peaceful marches to protest against the deep austerity cuts imposed as conditions of the bailout.

As the protests unfolded, Christine Lagarde, the director of the International Monetary Fund, hinted that Greece’s creditors were moving closer to the idea of debt relief, although she added that writing off a portion of the the debt - a haircut - remains off the table.

“I have some hope because I understand as late as a couple of hours ago there were some more positive noises to that principle of debt restructuring,” she told CNN.


“One way has to be found in order to release that burden and allow that country to demonstrate yes it can be back on a sustainable path.”


The IMF has told eurozone countries that Greece needs far more generous debt relief than what is on offer. It thinks Athens should receive a 30-year grace period before it has to start paying off its debts.

Meanwhile, the US is likely to continue to urge eurozone leaders to seal the deal on Greece. The US treasury secretary, Jack Lew, flew into Frankfurt for a meeting with Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank.


Draghi is expected to face tough questions about the ECB’s role when he holds a press conference after its regular interest rate-setting policy meeting.

The European commission confirmed it planned to tap the European Financial Stability Mechanism, the ­EU-wide bailout fund, to meet part of the cost of a bridging loan, putting the UK on the hook for just over 15% of it. George Osborne, Britain’s chancellor, demanded that eurozone countries indemnify the Treasury against any losses if the UK is forced to contribute.


Agence France-Presse contributed to this report
Satya_anveshi
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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Philip
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Philip »

Ja! Desutschland uber alles! Tsipras forced to crawl by the Rhine in a G-string says one report.
The fact is that the Greeks must now eat "sauerkraut" instead of their customary fare.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by UlanBatori »

However, objectively speaking, it is the Germans who are really getting raped here, hain? They work hard, rip off ppl around the world, make money, put in the bank and whammo! everyone else in Oirope, America, Asia, Africa, Australia and Antarctica is screaming at them to give the money to Greece.
Rob the Rich And Feed The Poor And The Greeks Are The Poor
Happened once. Happened Twice, Happened 3 times. Now they start asking for some minimal signalling of intent to repay. Like collateral worth maybe 10% of what they asked to fork over. Placed in escrow in a bank owned by a hard-working German. Ppl scream that that is a 'SCANDAL'.

Who speaks for the poor downtrodden Germans?
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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UlanBatori wrote:However, objectively speaking, it is the Germans who are really getting raped here, hain? They work hard, rip off ppl around the world, make money, put in the bank and whammo! everyone else in Oirope, America, Asia, Africa, Australia and Antarctica is screaming at them to give the money to Greece.
Not necessarily. Germany gets the benefit of a captive common market (the Eurozone) for its substantial productivity *and* gets the currency depressed by the relative lack of productivity of the other countries within that zone. Germany under a Deutsche Mark would progressively price itself out of export competitiveness because it's just too damned efficient. Therefore, Germany is getting to have its cake and eat it too.

Is that necessarily 'their fault' ? No, that's just the nature of the Eurozone construct. But then they signed off on Eurozone integration knowing 400% well that the Greeks were never going to magically become Germanic in their mindset or efficiency overnight. The Greeks are known for their joie de vivre, as well as their resiliency in the face of hardship. But they're not known for being efficient and deferring pleasure in good times.

Thing is, when you set up a massive common market project project, you face both positives and negatives. For one, if you're the most productive economy, you suddenly gain yourself an exponentially larger market. On the other hand, the lack of productivity of the others both benefits you, in terms of depressing the currency that would otherwise strengthen much more and harm Germany more, and hurts you because one of more of these unproductive countries will need a bailout, and probably even a full haircut on their obligations.

When Germany insists 'no bailouts!', now amended to 'no haircuts!', they're being a little greedy, IMHO. One could put a price on how much a Deutsche Mark based economy would have hurt Germany - the costs would far exceed even the haircut. The problem with the haircut is not the haircut itself, but that others would ask for one. That would be pretty much like blowing a 10' wide hole under the waterline of SS Eurozone.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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UlanBatori wrote:However, objectively speaking, it is the Germans who are really getting raped here, hain? They work hard, rip off ppl around the world, make money, put in the bank and whammo! everyone else in Oirope, America, Asia, Africa, Australia and Antarctica is screaming at them to give the money to Greece.
Rob the Rich And Feed The Poor And The Greeks Are The Poor
Happened once. Happened Twice, Happened 3 times. Now they start asking for some minimal signalling of intent to repay. Like collateral worth maybe 10% of what they asked to fork over. Placed in escrow in a bank owned by a hard-working German. Ppl scream that that is a 'SCANDAL'.

Who speaks for the poor downtrodden Germans?

You hit upon a cardinal rule in life. Whether you are in individual, institution, state or a nation. Never loan money to anyone. The person who lends money always ends up looking evil in the end. The profligate always appears "poor and exploited" and the lender always appears blood thirsty and vicious, when he asks for repayment or even if he stops continuing to lend money to the defaulter.

A lender is never thanked for what he does. He is always demonized, no matter how good his intentions. Most humans have a "soft corner" for the free loader. It is part of being a human, just like trying to bring his brother down and corruption. Even a rich free loader is looked upon with sympathy - "the poor little rich guy". If the rich want to elicit sympathy from the poor, I suggest they just start free loading. The Greeks are far richer than most of the world, but they still must free load. And the rest of the world, who is much poorer, naturally, sympathizes with the Greeks. No wonder, the others stay poor. It all works out really really good, doesnt it ?

Never lend. Always give, what you can afford, without any expectations of it coming back. And this rule applies 100% of the time, no matter who the creditor is or who the debtor is.

And of course, it is not the Greeks' fault that they are not more Germanic in their mindset, and spend more, far more than they take in. Spending more than what you take in is just another legitimate "mindset", just like the Germanic mindset is of spending less than you take in. It is all an "equal equal".

We Indians have a very powerful affinity with the free loader. There is not a single free loader we have not liked....with the possible exception of the Paki, but that is not saying much, is it, because, Paki is after all, Paki.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by vijaykarthik »

^ No, UB. Its not that easy as you say. Nor is it a simple construct like someone else hinted earlier . Its not a simple 1-1 construct. These are to do with nations and how the FT zone is constructed and what the ideals are and what they stand for etc. Simply put, Euro is not equal [its pretty obvious that the periphery Euros are lesser value notionally vs the Euros printed in the stronger countries?]

The Germans need to realize that they need to give in a bit more for a precious European project. Or end up giving up on the project. They have got a lot of good things with this project. [Being a hegemon, as they always want, with a moral right in a dead project]. But cant accept more help for needy places in the same project? Ironically, I would argue that the periphery weakened more in the recession because of these dastardly EU policies.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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The way various govts of Eurozone acted during the Greece negotiations basically created a political union by de facto. New era has begun. This is not a good development for non-Eurozone members particularly those seeking disruption to current world order so legit ones can have oppty to take the lead.

GREECE LATEST-Hollande calls for the creation of a euro zone government
French President Francois Hollande called for the creation of a euro zone government and for citizens to renew their faith in the European project, which has been weakened by the Greek crisis.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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Satya_anveshi wrote:The way various govts of Eurozone acted during the Greece negotiations basically created a political union by de facto. New era has begun. This is not a good development for non-Eurozone members particularly those seeking disruption to current world order so legit ones can have oppty to take the lead.
The only ones who are taking any initiatives right now and for the forseeable future to disrupt the current world order are the Islamists and the Chinese. No one else has remotely the capability and no one else is in a position to take advantage of a European decline.

Would you want the Chinese or the Islamists to take advantage of a European decline? If not, dont wish for it. In fact, wish for the opposite. (I am not asserting here that the Europeans are the good guys, but the Islamists and the Chinese make them look like saints)
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Satya_anveshi »

rsangram wrote:
Satya_anveshi wrote:The way various govts of Eurozone acted during the Greece negotiations basically created a political union by de facto. New era has begun. This is not a good development for non-Eurozone members particularly those seeking disruption to current world order so legit ones can have oppty to take the lead.
The only ones who are taking any initiatives right now and for the forseeable future to disrupt the current world order are the Islamists and the Chinese. No one else has remotely the capability and no one else is in a position to take advantage of a European decline.
China is already positioned pretty neat in the current world order with UNSC veto power that serves its interests. Its economy and economic weight is contributing to global stability and India is second largest stakeholder of AIIB. EU zone transforming into political zone will be a net gain to China as it will solidify its current path. Remember status quo is working for China as it is marching forward.

Islamist, well, who the hell takes them serious as far as being a global power and impacting global order is concerned. They are best at fighting their sub-regional ethnic wars and sending terrorists. Saudis could not even make pakis send its soliders to yemen and taking their frustration on zahil hamid.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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How Can Greece Take Charge?
an economist at the University of Texas at Austin, who assisted the former Greek finance minister during this year’s negotiations, told me, “What’s going to happen in Greece is going to be very sad.”
in the case of exports, the country has important assets that it hasn’t taken full advantage of. Greek olive oil is often described as the best in the world. Yet sixty per cent of Greek oil is sold in bulk to Italy, which then resells it at a hefty markup. Greece should be processing and selling that oil itself, and similar stories could be told about feta cheese and yogurt; a 2012 McKinsey study suggested that food products could add billions to Greece’s G.D.P. Similarly, tourism, though it already accounts for eighteen per cent of G.D.P., has a lot more potential. Most tourists in Greece are Greek themselves, a sign that the country could do a much better job of tapping the booming global tourism market. Doing so would require major investments in improving ports and airports, and in marketing. But the upside could be huge. Greece also needs to stem its current brain drain. It produces a large number of scientists and engineers, but it spends little on research and development, so talent migrates abroad. And there are other ways that Greece could capitalize on its climate and its educated workforce; as Galbraith suggests, it’s an ideal location for research centers and branches of foreign universities.

To implement such changes, Greece will have to overcome other problems.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by niran »

Satya_anveshi wrote:How Can Greece Take Charge?
sixty per cent of Greek oil is sold in bulk to Italy, which then resells it at a hefty markup. Greece should be processing and selling that oil itself, and similar stories could be told about feta cheese and yogurt; a 2012 McKinsey study suggested that food products could add billions to Greece’s G.D.P. Similarly, tourism, though it already accounts for eighteen per cent of G.D.P., has a lot more potential. Most tourists in Greece are Greek themselves, a sign that the country could do a much better job of tapping the booming global tourism market. Doing so would require major investments in improving ports and airports, and in marketing. But the upside could be huge. Greece also needs to stem its current brain drain. It produces a large number of scientists and engineers, but it spends little on research and development, so talent migrates abroad. And there are other ways that Greece could capitalize on its climate and its educated workforce; as Galbraith suggests, it’s an ideal location for research centers and branches of foreign universities.

To implement such changes, Greece will have to overcome other problems.
this sound similar!??! yes!!! just like pakese say we have miss warrld in every mohalla of pakistan look at the annual quantity Olives produced Greece produce is piddly in compared to say Spain who are the main tourist to Greece? the answer is oiropeans of course, people in the land of smiles have named oirope as the dying continent why? coz they is broke, no have moonay hence no can be touristy.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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Satya_anveshi wrote:
rsangram wrote:The only ones who are taking any initiatives right now and for the forseeable future to disrupt the current world order are the Islamists and the Chinese. No one else has remotely the capability and no one else is in a position to take advantage of a European decline.
China is already positioned pretty neat in the current world order with UNSC veto power that serves its interests. Its economy and economic weight is contributing to global stability and India is second largest stakeholder of AIIB. EU zone transforming into political zone will be a net gain to China as it will solidify its current path. Remember status quo is working for China as it is marching forward.
AIIB shareholding is based on nominal GDP (60%) and PPP GDP (40%). India will keep gaining in shareholding rapidly relative to everyone else, including China, in the AIIB over the next couple of decades.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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Does look like the deal might stick and stay. And looks like Führer Merkel is ready for a greek debt relief too. However once the dust is settled. I wonder how that can be accepted by the E European countries though?
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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^^Greece had/has no other option.
Greek PM Tsipras Allegedly Asked Russia for $10 Bln to Print Drachmas
Moscow’s response was a vague mention of a 5-billion-dollar advance on the new South Stream natural gas pipeline construction that will pass through Greece. Tsipras also sent similar loan requests to China and Iran, but to no avail, the report said.
n his first visit to Moscow, Tsipras condemned the European Union policy in Ukraine and supported the referendum of east Ukraine seeking secession. It was then that Germany realized Greece was prepared to shift alliances, something that would threaten the Eurozone cohesion. Tsipras was hoping that Germany would back down under that threat and offer Greece a generous debt haircut. At the time, Tsipras had the rookie ambition that he could change Europe, the report continued.
Meanwhile, Washington Post is still at it:
Let Greece leave the eurozone
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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here's an idea.... why not hold a street theater, agit prop election in which the lenders are called "terrorists"? Oh wait, they already tried that........ :(
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Philip »

Some are suggesting that Germany should leave the Eurozone instead! :rotfl:
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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I am at loss assessing whether Greeks calling their creditors terrorist is bad or US govt agencies treating peaceful protesters of occupy wall street movement against income inequality as terrorists is bad. if both are bad which is more bad.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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Satya_anveshi wrote:I am at loss assessing whether Greeks calling their creditors terrorist is bad or US govt agencies treating peaceful protesters of occupy wall street movement against income inequality as terrorists is bad. if both are bad which is more bad.
oh yeah, and we expect them to loan lots of money...... :rotfl:
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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Greece Approves EU Demands in Order to Keep the Euro - July22, 2015
Greece passed a second bundle of policy measures demanded by the country’s European creditors as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras urged lawmakers to stop the country being forced out of the euro.

Tsipras won the support of at least 151 lawmakers in a televised, public vote in the 300-seat parliament in Athens for a bill that will simplify court decisions and transpose European rules on failing banks.
“Conservative forces within Europe still insist on their plans to kick Greece out of the euro,” Tsipras told legislators in the early hours of Thursday. “We chose a compromise that forces us to implement a program we don’t believe in and we will implement it, because the choices we have are tough.”
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by vijaykarthik »

ZH had an interesting article which argued that Tsipiras had to go back to the EU and IMF because Russia and China disagreed to a bridge loan [looks like he asked Russia for about 10bn loan to print Drachmas]. On the eve of the bailout, Putin has again rejected giving money.

Assuming the facts were true, the storyline doesn't add up. Will not having greece in its side help Russia express contempt to EU and score a major victory - how was this avoided? There was a meeting recently with Kerry all of a sudden; a few wks back. I thought it was about Syria / Iran. Was there more to the meeting rather?
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

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vijaykarthik wrote:ZH had an interesting article which argued that Tsipiras had to go back to the EU and IMF because Russia and China disagreed to a bridge loan [looks like he asked Russia for about 10bn loan to print Drachmas]. On the eve of the bailout, Putin has again rejected giving money.

Assuming the facts were true, the storyline doesn't add up. Will not having greece in its side help Russia express contempt to EU and score a major victory - how was this avoided? There was a meeting recently with Kerry all of a sudden; a few wks back. I thought it was about Syria / Iran. Was there more to the meeting rather?
the Rodina doesn't have the reserves to carry the Greeks right now. China could do it but they are in a financial crisis at the moment neck deep in crocodiles.

the EU can do it, it's their baby and they got the juice, regardless of German resentment and cultural outlook.

the US could do it but there might be an armed revolt among its citizenry with guillotines built on town squares across America. uh, that's FrankenSTEEN, not Frankenstein. and SpearO, not Spiro.

so the EU is it.
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Re: EU crisis-Greece

Post by Virupaksha »

ya ya ya, 10 B out of 360 B for russia is going to make them beggars and 10 B out of 4 trillions for china is going to make them into somalia.

the most important question is what was greece offering? coming out of nato might have tempted them otherwise let those who profited from US(through banks and investment groups) & EU clean up their own sh*t.

Oh btw is greece still adhering to the nato, the worlds largest military group, norms on defence of around 2-3% spending on defence. If not, what is NATO going to do about it?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/j ... -proposals

interesting discussion about it.
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