India-Russia: News & Analysis

[brihaspati]

@Brihaspatiji.

Very informative post. One needs to read up on the latest because this seems to relate to the Putin era and things seem to have drifted during Mededev's era?

Having dealt with both Russians and Americans during the Soviet era, I percieve that there are shifts on both sides vis-a-vis India. In those days, the Russians had dedication to our relationship. Americas, though friendly and appreciative of us being a democratic country, were enormously bugged by our Non-Alignment.

Yes, but again, perceptions of realities and not realities per se - that ultimately decides what choices will be made by humans. People get supremely confused in thinking that "realities" determine "action". Actually, it is the perception - which in turn is shaped by "ideology". So different ideological perceptions will react and decide differently given the same "reality" they face. We cannot divest ideology from realpolitik. They are so inseparably intertwined that concentrating only on one aspect gives wrong projections.

If China is the main reason that Russia cozies up with India against Pak, what is it that started the dispute in the first place? Just borders? Those borders appear to have been working fine until de-Stalinization started in earnest after 20th Congress of the CPSU! What are they mostly fighting about - to borrow from the immortally etched words of our great visionary founding father - "not even grass grows" there for most of the stretch!

But more importantly, if it was just a matter of "real-politik" why did not Russia choose to settle it with China rather than get involved so heavily with India just merely to checkmate China, and knowing full well that even this method was flawed since India's checkmate value was permanently damaged by the POK - and that it meant also trying to or having to suck up to Pak a bit - which in turn meant assuaging both India and AFG a bit! Costs go increasing - isn't it? We can try to put dollars and roubles to such costs - but you will never find any such concrete calculations because they are very nearly impossible to make. Such "costs" calculations are only alluded to as a device [but never actually given] to discount role of "ideological perceptions" and push for "purely financial/material" motivations.

Okay so now USA will be brought in as a motivating factor - but then USA made up with China and vice versa for what? No role of "ideological perceptions" from Mao and Nixon about Russia?

Russia will find it difficult to endorse the Pak position entirely because of two persistent ideological factors apart from the continued hostility from the Anglo-Saxon [which again is a legacy of a complex politi-economic-ideological contest lasting for centuries] - the presence of Islamists and Islamic movements in CIS, and within its borders, and the vital role of the Orthodox Church in the renewed search for identity that Russia is going through. The material realities remain and do have important parts to play - but we will make a blunder if we discount the persistent "realities" of ideology as they shape politics.

[UBanerjee]

So everyone's played according to a script well understood...No point in sentimentalising the isue..

No one is sentimentalizing the issue but you are certainly trivializing it, by reducing the entire impact of Boris Drunkard Yelstin water carrying for west and wrecking his own country in the bargain as merely "trade and economic issues".

This isn't Rus-Rakshak, but Bharat-Rakshak- what Yeltsin did to his own country (or the other issues which are riling you) is not a matter of emotional anger for us. Not that, by the way, what Brezhnev, Kruschev and of course Stalin did for their country was particularly fantastic.

Better to look at the Russians dispassionately than to become emotionally identified with their every struggle and need. In fact Russia remains very distant culturally and sociologically from India, Raj Kapoor not withstanding (I mentioned him for this point). There is very little about our societies that is in common- Russia is a state with a long history of brutal violence directed at its own people, and naturally rests in a totalitarian equilibrium, and we can see their body politic has returned to this. And the amount of heretics and ideological deviants persecuted by the Russians would make the Catholic church blush. This is not exactly a pluralist society with a high tolerance for deviations, and our relationship remains transactional on defense goods (the most important form of transaction to be sure, but the volume of our other trade is miniscule).

Returning to geopolitics, let us again just remember that the areas India has the most concern with, Russia has both little care and even less ability to aid us. They may support us with "hopes" and "wishes" which are good for some chai-biskooting, and they may pull out the UN veto for us, although don't count on it. There are few grounds for a deeper relationship with Russia beyond transactional defense cooperation and maneuvering on Af. & Iran. And even here, we will have to start using the Russians to build our own MIC, not use it as an excuse to remain suckling at the teat of theirs. They need our business as much, if not more, than we need them.

[Sanku]

This isn't Rus-Rakshak, but Bharat-Rakshak-

Really, I didnt know? Who would have guessed?

what Yeltsin did to his own country (or the other issues which are riling you) is not a matter of emotional anger for us.

Why would it be, you dont understand the impact that Yelstin had on Indian intrests, such as Cryogenic engine and what not.

Not that, by the way, what Brezhnev, Kruschev and of course Stalin did for their country was particularly fantastic.

We were talking about Yelstin in reference to Indian effect my dear friend, if you had anything to add about the other worthies w.r.t. please do. I shall not be stopping you.

Better to look at the Russians dispassionately than to become emotionally identified with their every struggle and need

Why is it so difficult for you to understand that perhaps we are dispassionate? Unless of course you have a upper hand in psychology and know something about us that we dont?

. In fact Russia remains very distant culturally and sociologically from India, Raj Kapoor not withstanding (I mentioned him for this point).

culturally, socially but arent these "emotional" points that are not part of being "dis-passionate"

There is very little about our societies that is in common-

Thank you for the pov, a large majority of Indians, especially those who have dealt with them, disagree.

Returning to geopolitics, let us again just remember that the areas India has the most concern with, Russia has both little care and even less ability to aid us.

And as I demonstrated by that little list, which I can post again, the above statement is completely wrong. So wrong as to be funny. My only question is despite by corrected with facts, why do you persist in repeating those basic fallacies? Makes you look a little biased frankly.

Just to jog your memory here is the partial list once more

1) Shared intrests in entire CAR.
2) Shared intrests on Agf/Iran
3) Shared intrests on multipolarity in the world.
4) Shared worries about a aggressive militarized china.
5) Shared military ties and co-development.
6) Shared views about Libya and WANA
7) Energy security -- share oil and gas business.

[rajanb]

Thanks Brihaspati.

A very balanced view in your post.

My regret is that somewhere we have diluted our diplomacy with Ru. And that doesn't mean we need to be munnas. Diplomacy is also about changing perceptions.

Particularly when our reality dictates we prepare and build enough deterrence against China and Pak. And that to, with the changes in the realpolitik in the region, combined with the rapid strides and growth in military prowress of other countries. Instead of just the western border and a bit of our coastline on the west the need to strengthen defences all around and provide deterrence all around.

We cannot write off Ru because I have always felt that their downslide would be reversed. And I do see them returning to their position by about 2020. History has proved them to be a very tough and hardy race.

[devesh]

^^^

we keep re-inventing the wheel. we already know that Pak hatred of us is much deeper than "trade and economy," and yet some poster comes in and decides to comment about how it was all trade and profits and ideologies/religions played no role in it!!!! and then B'ji or somebody else has to re-discover what is already known......and back to square one....Jai Ho!

[Surya]

Shared intrests in entire CAR.

Not that it prevented them from restricitng our ability to expand bases there

Shared intrests on Agf/Iran

-

Not that they have a choice

Shared intrests on multipolarity in the world.

again what choice do they have.

Shared worries about a aggressive militarized china.

again not much choice
not prevented them from selling all sort of stuff to the chinese

Shared military ties and co-development.

past is gone - and present and future very very very iffy which is why we are arguing - so you cannot really use this line

6)

Shared views about Libya and WANA

meaningless and their own president and premier are talking in diff tones

7)

Energy security

--

Lets wait and see - unless there is huge amounts flowing to India - this is WIP and seeing how others have been kicked out whenever they felt like - who knows

[brihaspati]

Maybe we are reading too much into Medvedev-Putin supposed tussle. Part of it is a kind of harking back to the Soviet era - when how the leaders kissed each other on TV meant a great deal to political meteorologists in USSR. People would go to great lengths - did A look at B's eyes before he kissed him? Was there a slight hesitation before he kissed? Was B avoiding the kiss slightly? Did A bend his head to the right or to the left slightly? etc.

Putin has consolidated his personal power over the last decade. Not many people are aware how he has moved steadily under the radar
(1) to sort of "re-nationalize" erstwhile "Soviet" state sectors - by dispossessing the "ex red barons"
(2) more significantly he has consolidated his position among the younger generation
(3) he has managed to rope in the church

There is a renewed "nationalism" that is quite palpable among the youth - those of us here in a position to observe will surely agree. And Putin is firmly in that youth "vision" as a potential regenerator. In many ways, Putin is reviving the USSR, but sans its beyond-use-by-date personnel.

The real power in Russia since its formation is always held in a people on one side and a single individual on the other side - contract. The Russian model is uniquely based on making the apparatus of state power dependent on the apparatus of personal power. Putin has grasped this essence of "Russian state power". So Medvedev has no real power basis to challenge Putin.

Since Putin thinks along the older "Roosie" ideological framework [ he doesn't appear to have been able to shake off his KGB roots], and has followed the power-model outlined above - he will drag the state through exactly the same considerations that alienated "Russia" from the "west", and provided drive towards a parallel claimant of global domination.

India can invest in the right sectors at this stage to gain leverage in a way that was not possible in the 50's-70's. Such investments will see much greater returns in strategic terms as well as military terms than the more doubtful collaborations with the "west". The "west" has many pawns and more horses it can field into the game - but Russia's choices are rather restricted. This is where India's advantage should lie.

As for "social compatibility", I think people will be surprised if they really interacted - say at really "deep" [ ]social level. Similarities in attitudes will be striking in many aspects of family life at least where Yindoos are concerned.

[rajanb]

Putin has consolidated his personal power over the last decade. Not many people are aware how he has moved steadily under the radar

Brihaspati,

I believe that Putin would be better for India. Would you subscribe to this view too?

cheers

[Sanku]

Not that they have a choice

Even better, that means the synergies are essentially bound and neither can opt out.

[Manishw]

Hi B Ji and Sanku Ji,

My take on this is that the minions of the anglo saxons are now in power in Delhi so such skirmishes with the Russkies are bound to happen even increase in frequency. Anyway there is a lot more happening than meets the eye.

[Purush]

Indo- Roosi ties have to be viewed through the prism of self-interest and nothing else. There is no roosi-hindi bhai-bhai anymore. They have helped us in the past, we are thankful for that. But those days are over.

No need to go to ridiculous lengths justify their current pacqui behavior; they are not our sugar daddy and we don't owe them anything...all debts have been paid in full.

The exhibition of pacqui behavior by the russians for the current defense deals is not new. Remember, in the '90s, they arm-twisted us, revalued our Rouble debt and we had to fork over huge sums of money in US$ for all the stuff they had sold us. At the time, some called it the largest gift from a developing country to a developed country.
If you factor that in, I wonder if we really got those military toys at a 'special customer' discount. (I am not 399% sure of this, so correct me if I am wrong. With proper proof).

Remember, in the '70s and '80s they had bribed and compromised several members of our parliament and supposedly even members of the cabinet. IIRC, they were also funneling money to our commie parties. Hardly the kind of behavior you'd expect from a 'tarrel than mountain' fliend.

And it was on BRF itself IIRC (or was it an article on BRF) that an ex-serviceman mentioned how badly IA/IN/IAF personnel who were sent to the USSR for training were mistreated by the Russians (racial superiority BS) and looked down upon as SDREs. They seem to be no different from the pacquis when it comes to notions of superiority over SDREs.

Even a few years ago, when Putin was on a *state* visit to India, he apparently washed his cutlery with vodka to avoid 'Delhi belly'.
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes ... dent-putin

It used to be said about alcoholics that they started the morning by brushing their teeth with the stuff. President Putin was washing his cutlery in vodka during his state visit to India, according to the PR person of the New Delhi hotel where he was staying.

President Putin was measuring out his Delhi stay in vodka spoons simply because he saw it as a disinfectant and wanted to avoid the Delhi belly which has laid low countless invaders and visitors to the city of djinns. A Russian microbiologist was accompanying him to pre-empt tummy upsets.

That is the level of respect these clowns have for India.

Add to this that they are arming the cheenis to the teeth, and the cheenis in-turn hand over clown jewels to the pacquis. Russia is directly helping the #1 enemy of India, there is no other way to spin this.

So it's good to have cordial relations with the Russians; treat them just as we treat any other important nation which affects our national interests.
But no need to go overboard and lick their boots.

[Manishw]

^^ Agreed they are behaving worse than somali pirates and a proper jhappad has to be administered to them to see us as equals.My point is that it is the only country fighting the real Imperialists(anglo-saxon alliance) and both of us need friends to stand up to them(Imperialists).

As far as china is concerned I don't think that Russia is helping them it is more a question of china taking more advantage of the russkies than our incompetent leaders could take.

Added later: the russians if they have a grouse normally do not complain like most others do but use these somewhat barbaric tactics to get their point across.It is an ingrained part of their culture and should be understood and acted upon by our spineless babus in the same manner in which the russians do.

[Cosmo_R]

Don't tell me, this is deep ToT by our own OFB best practices crew

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43263149/ns ... ws-europe/

Arsenal fire, blasts shake Russian region...

[Sanku]

Indo- Roosi ties have to be viewed through the prism of self-interest and nothing else. There is no roosi-hindi bhai-bhai anymore. They have helped us in the past, we are thankful for that. But those days are over.
.

You think there was any real Indo-Russi bhai bhai ever? A relationship is FIRST made for reasons which are not movie variety emotions. LATER they are dressed up for public consumption.

In cases the bases where strong, the dressing lives and in cases the strategic calculation was flawed, it turns in Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai fiasco.

I know we blame Indians for being not particularly savvy in terms of geo-politics, but they are not, that dumb either.

[Austin]

MODERN ARMAMENTS - BACKBONE FOR MODERNIZATION OF RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES
Anatoly Gulyaev - Chief of Armaments Department, RF Ministry of Defense

[Austin]

Gazprom Signs India LNG Deal

Gazprom will deliver up to 2.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) a year to India under a deal signed with Petronet LNG yesterday that could be worth more than $32 billion.

The 25-year memorandum of understanding underscores Indian efforts to secure power for its fast-growing economy, already Asia's third largest.

Overseas deals are being sought to help cushion against global price fluctuations and secure energy supply for a country that relies on imports of two-thirds of its oil needs.

Petronet and Gazprom Marketing & Trading, a unit of Gazprom, said they had signed a preliminary deal.

Based on market prices of $10 per million British thermal units, it could be worth about $1.3bn a year, or $32.5bn in total.

"We will negotiate pricing, volume, supply timings, etc. Discussions would begin in a month and we want to expedite this and complete the deal as soon as possible," Petronet chief executive A K Balyan said.

With an economy growing by around eight per cent a year and gas seen as an attractive option versus carbon-heavy coal and oil, India's demand could double by 2020, making it a promising market for Gazprom which already sells to an Indian state firm.

[brihaspati]

Putin has consolidated his personal power over the last decade. Not many people are aware how he has moved steadily under the radar

Brihaspati,

I believe that Putin would be better for India. Would you subscribe to this view too?

cheers

By trying to come out of the Gorbachov/Yeltsinesque shadow of sucking up to the west - Putin has already set in motion forces that are at least partially taking us a bit towards the "Cold War", maybe not exactly in those paranoid forms, but yet significant.

Which is the primary advantage for India. Second, apart from the "ideological constraints" a weakened Russia struggling to recover its h&d - provides some unique advantages for India where it can extract benefits, as in certain areas of military hardware. Putin is trying his best to revive the bi-polar world, and although he is still far from achieving that objective, that itself can be used.

[brihaspati]

Hi B Ji and Sanku Ji,

My take on this is that the minions of the anglo saxons are now in power in Delhi so such skirmishes with the Russkies are bound to happen even increase in frequency. Anyway there is a lot more happening than meets the eye.

True. I guess flurry of trying to get people on sides starts off with plans or preparations for war. Or extended long term step by step managed conflicts to achieve larger geo-strategic objectives. We Indians should be familiar with this - just the flurry of "diplomatic" activity by stalwarts, "neutrals", deeper-than-X-friends, "relatives", on the eve of Kurukshetra war.

[UBanerjee]

At the best Putin can hope for a tri or quadri polar world, I don't think he is trying to literally turn back the clock to 1970s!

But actually the long term trends are not positive for Russia. Demographically speaking Russia is in free fall akin to more advanced economies despite having a fraction of their per capita wealth (some positive trends in recent years- worthwhile to note that much of it is the Muslim population). It will remain a resources power with a MIC as legacy of Soviet days. We should tie into that MIC but caution is needed as they will of course want to keep us dependent and suckling at the teat of theirs rather than developing our own. Hence the tamasha about "co-develop" and "joint venture" which is basically a smokescreen for India bankrolling Soviet MIC with minimal development on our side.

It feels good to puff up our chests and say we are codeveloping things but lets watch out for that rhetoric as it doesn't meet reality so far.

[brihaspati]

Indians are not thinking of settling the steppes or the Siberian permafrost. So what we are interested in is what they can achieve on the technical and scientific side which we can share in. They have two resources in more plentiful supply than we have - more of disposable brains and human lives [we have more head-counts but we cannot dispose of such heads in the way they are capable of ] as well as a totalitarian thought process that is willing to not count the costs of achieving "targets". So they can provide the "muscle" component in aspects where we are not willing to or are constrained from - "spending".

(1) They fall on the wrong side of the racial looking glass from the north-western Euro-side, so will never be allowed to become part of the "west. [Another aspect of "ideological" views that drive "national" policies beyond any economics, "development" and "growth"]

(2) They consciously rejected Islam - because they saw what it really meant under the "Golden Horde" and the south-steppe Khans as well as the later Ottomans. China, Russia and Brits [for that matter the French, the Germans too] - all saw what Islamic rule meant. But both China and North-western Europe fell in a mesmerizing s&m fascination with the cult, and were inspired to to use the theology as an imperialist tool. Russians saw it too - in exactly the same geo-political space - but still rejected it. They experimented with the west-European Christianity sourced totalitarian strain of Communism as an alternative and ultimately rejected it.

When Russians reject something they seem to do it for good, and not continue in an everlasting confusion about the poisonous but tasty fruit.

The Russians realize the importance of a state ideology in a society like Russia, and hence in the absence of communism they have reverted back to reviving the Orthodox church. More than any other strands of Christianity this is one strand ever unlikely to accommodate Islam [just as many other theologies too I agree].

This makes them far less dangerous than the likes of US or UK or France or Germany or China, all whom will unhesitatingly use Islamics against India if they can find an excuse to do so under "national interests".

(3) Yes Russians can be "bad" and "racist" - more openly so than polished and tightlipped Nordes. However you know where you stand with them then. As far as "Delhi belly" and "sterilizing with alcohol" is concerned, the thing to note is that the earliest reference to the term is found in American WWII veteran-speak - for example - Indiana Evening Gazette, October 1942:

"Americans on duty overseas are learning also to guard against "Teheran tummy" and "Delhi belly" "

Sterilizing with whiskey/rum/brandy was a common sea-man's repertoire, even in spoons etc, and was widely known among European sailors in the IOR, and the Brits were the first known to have widely relied on this faced with diarrhoea in the early settler days in India. The pot-shots taken at this "god-forsaken" land for producing such bowel-motions and which could only be tackled by "whiskey" cleaning - abound in letters/anecdotal recounting and so on.

If Putin had really done what has been reported, he was a late latecomer into this culture of India bashing, and moreover we do not have choice excerpts from his writings or commentary to know whether he was simply doing it as a pragmatic approach or he was also at the same time racially abusing India and Indians while he was sterilizing spoons. If he was giving out choice epithets in Russian - yes he is fit for a jhapaad. But hopefully we also start doing it more actively to any user of the expression! Are not those who soften it or de-stigmatize it by using in say films - also fit for jhapaads? or English language travelogues or books?

[Any available drinkable spirit - roughly 37-40% or so - that is available is a good sterilizer. I have often used it in remote and difficult terrain in emergencies with very good results.]

[brihaspati]

We dont really need to be enamoured of the Russians, but they have many features that make them more useful against certain types of enemies that India faces. Most of the other "allies" India is working with have doubtful intent on such "enemies".

The Germans, Russians and Indians have certain shared peculiarities in intellectual tendencies, which can even now be exploited -politically, in science and technology, and in subtle manipulation of ideological undercurrents. All three are "racists" in their unique ways which they are themselves not always aware of. But there are factors that make Russians more attractive as partners in our plans for the "occupied" territories towards our western lines of control [ I do not think of them as borders] - something that sucking up to the Saudis, or even the Americans will never even forward us an inch forward in.

[UBanerjee]

Soviet atheism has left a spiritual void- and that has seriously weakened the Russian fibre and allowed the power of Islam to increase. At the moment those who self-identify as religious fall about evenly into Orthodox and Islamic spheres, with some more in the first. The remaining "secular" or apathetic majority leans more towards Orthodox as it is tied to their national roots. On the flip side, Islam is demographically fruitful & is esp valued for the army- as they are far less likely to suffer from alcoholism- a serious problem in Russia. We can see the fruits of this emerging:

http://grendelreport.posterous.com/russ ... in-few-dec
http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/sho ... e_id=18214

Many of these will be from the comparatively less virulent "Tatar" sections of society. But as time goes on more Muslims practicing locally developed versions of Islam are exposed to the global forces sweeping the religion- so we cannot count on this to remain comfortably problem-free- just as once Indonesia and Malaysia were thought to be immune to radicalization because of "softer Asian" version of the religion.

Something to watch anyway.

[brihaspati]

^^^Interesting. I think even I mentioned that one of the factors that will not allow Russia to really lean over to the Islamist cause is the presence of Islamism within its own borders. In India such a presence means a terrific urge to lean over and scratch the back of mullahcracy - because the ruling leading lights themselves have a deep seated alienation from their majority birth culture. In Russia, it means otherwise and an opposite reaction to that in India.

Putin's "crackdown" on "nationalists" is really about his need to keep all "nationalist" strands firmly under his personal control. He does have his rivals in "nationalism", although he has steadily reduced their numbers.

The southern districts were always problematic. Even now. But anyone interacting closely with the Russian community anywhere will be able to see how much "ethnicity" and "religion" is a motivating factor for most of them - and it always was, even when the majority had to pretend to be atheists or at least agnostic. It is joked [but might have grains of truth] that people desperately studied science because it required less entanglement with having to criticize religion or prove one's "atheism".

[Purush]

... whether he was simply doing it as a pragmatic approach or he was also at the same time racially abusing India and Indians while he was sterilizing spoons. .

Agreed, he would have done it out of pragmatism, but seriously, if you invite me to your (clean, sanitized) home for dinner, lay down the cutlery on the dinner table, and just before service, I whip out a bottle of alcohol from my pocket and rinse the plates to disinfect them, what does that say about me. What would you, as a host, feel?
Remember, this guy was on a state visit, staying in a TFTA, clean 5* hotel. Not eating from a dhaba in Dharavi.

It says a lot about their mindset wrt India if they still think that even 5* indian facilities, that host state dignitaries, are filthy.

Anyway, no more on this partly OT subject from me.

As I stated in the previous post, I am all for good relations with Russia; it is useful for us too.
But it's the 'special relationship' and 'congruence of interests' line that I don't buy. Russia is pretty much like any foreign defense supplier these days- overcharging for underperforming/delayed goods.

I look forward to the day when we are mostly self sufficient in defence matters and don't have to put up with the blackmail and arm-twisting tactics of goons like the russians/americans/french/etc.

[Purush]

^ excellent video.

[Austin]

”Plow horse” Putin lists stability as main achievement

MOSCOW, June 1 (Itar-Tass) —— Prime Minister Vladimir Putin listed stability in the country as the main achievement of his ten years at the helm of Russia as president and government chairman and said he had to work as “a plow horse” to achieve it.

“The main thing is that we achieved stability which allows the state and society to look into tomorrow with confidence and design plans for long-term perspective,” Putin said in an interview with the VIP-Premier magazine published on Wednesday.

“I feel myself like a ‘plow horse’ rather than a VIP-premier,” Putin said adding he has to work as the engine of economic development specifically during trips across the country.

Putin replaced President Boris Yeltsin in 2000 after ten years of chaotic transition from Communism to democracy following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Inflation was skyrocketing, many enterprises went bankrupt and closed down, unemployment was on the rise, at least a third of the population was below the poverty line, and a terrorist war was underway in the North Caucasus.

“The situation demanded extreme measures. I am speaking about the rule of constitutional law, social guarantees to people, and strengthening of state institutions. And we did it!” Putin said.

He said Russia in over ten years of his rule achieved macroeconomic stability and financial independence. It created conditions for private enterprise development and for investments and launched major projects practically in all industries and social spheres.

“Russia occupied a worthy place on the international arena and built constructive relations with partners which brings social dividends,” Putin said.

He listed Russian dependence on oil and gas exports as the main problem today, but said the fuel and energy complex will continue to play a stabilizing role for long.

Priority development guidelines for the coming decade include creation of a competitive high-tech economy and transition to innovative development.

“Our plans aim at ensuring high standards of personal security of citizens, accessibility and high quality of social services, decreased regional inequality and administrative barriers, as well as more efficient system of state governance,” Putin said.

“We hope the tasks will be resolved also in the framework of the long-term strategy of social and economic development up to 2020” which is currently being adjusted to meet modern conditions and realities, Putin said.

“We have to be competitive in everything – technologies and human resources, industrial production and arts. Society, authorities and business have to act as a single team. Only thus we can achieve a quality breakthrough,” he said.

Putin described the global economic crisis as a “durability test” for the country.

“The government adopted several decisions which prevented social tensions, a collapse of the banking system, and production stop. However, it was not the reason for rather confident recovery from the crisis. The main thing was nine years of economic growth which preceded the crisis,” Putin said.

“Today our absolute priority is an all-round and comprehensive modernization of the country based on democratic values and institutions, diversification of economy and its transition to innovative and high-tech development model,” the prime minister said adding international cooperation might help accomplish the tasks.

However he regretted “some foreign countries still stick to Cold War perceptions” of Russia. “I believe that issue should have been closed long ago. They have to understand that modern Russia is a country of new opportunities which is open for everyone who is ready for joint work.”

[brihaspati]

Admiral Puri's speech is admirable. But the devil lies in implementation. I have always taken the line of indigenous military capacity building - especially in hardware - as the first priority. One of my first debates with RayC started on this.

My argument still is as follows: India should actively prepare for "war". Preparing for war but not necessarily actually going into it - has long lasting effects on science and technology, economy and nation building and national consolidation. But more importantly, actively preparing for war requires indigenous R&D for military tech since no foreign nation will give up all of its military edge in technology by arms trade. If they do they will first ensure that you can never come out of their thumb and orbit.

So active preparation for war will force the rashtryia machinery to invest and demand in domestic R&D at a high pressure-cooker level to match other nations.

I was since then told that implementing such a policy is problematic because apparently we do not manage to ensure "quality" or "performance" of components of our own make, and that "gov" has to wait interminably for required delivery while the pressure from defence forces mounts to give them what they feel is urgent.

If all of this is being posted to somehow discount what has been written about the strategic - especially political and ideological advantages of using Russian proclivities - then this is going in a tangent. I, for my part, have only indicated the political and ideological constraints on Russia that makes them attractive for certain political/military and "expansion" programmes of our own on the subcontinent. This was not about leaning over to this or that trader of goods and getting "cuts" for personal benefits. Where Russia offers us advantages - like collaboration on the stealth craft - which the "others" are not willing to offer, why not take it? Simply because they are "Russians"?

Adm. Puri talks of Chinese "determination" and their "indigenous" capacity building. But the Chinese too - buy stuff. It is more difficult to know about their acquisition techniques because they are not transparent enough. They buy, disassemble, and reverse engineer a lot.

Having said that, key issues are "directions" or national goals. There exists a lot of confusion on that count within the current regime - not just because various merchants of wares are peddling their stuff at New Delhi [or in the Swiss Alps or the Riviera's on both sides of the Anglo-Saxon pond] - but also because the imperialist forces behind those merchants possibly have an ideological as well as economic stake in the Indian pie. That is another battle and OT for this thread. Putin is really a very small fry in that pan. There are much bigger roaches in the omelette.

Aside : for Vodka and sterilization. I am all for giving a jhapaad, if it is proved that the story is authentic [ surely security cams were rolling] and that it is not a "kshaurakara"'s tale meant for dissemination over a glass of the local brew. At the same time I hope we start giving jhapaads to all those writing in English about " Delhi Belly" or those who are sanitizing it by using in book or movie titles. I am really delighted to see that so many feel the indignation in such expressions - while no such are forthcoming when "Hindu rate of growth" is used liberally. Both are illogical and malicious - in associating a negative/undesirable outcome with a particular entity excluding all others. But maybe we identify with "Delhi" so much more than with the "Hindu". By the way similar terms abound in writings by "guests" who have been "welcomed" by us, and similar terms exist for Mumbai, Kolkata. OT and last on this from me.

[UBanerjee]

What Admiral Puri's speech gets at- the heart of the issue- foreign arms lobbies have worked efficiently, along with institutional inertia, to keep India dependent on these arms. Whereas China was forced to work without dreaming of the latest foreign arms, getting some help from the Russians, but going the last mile on their own.

And that is also the story behind things like PAK-FA and other "joint ventures", which are fancy terms that don't stand up to reality. Already there are suggestions that there will be another "joint venture" to develop AMCA equivalent- which will inevitably sideline any real attempts at indigenization. Which may be precisely the goal.

Witness how thoroughly an inferior and substandard product, T-90, has sidelined the Arjun and seriously impeded the economies of scale that go with mass-production. Whereas if the Arjun was all we had the IA would have been forced to make it work, warts and all, and they would have been forced to get used to it. In the process India could have had the experience of putting a frontline battle system into mass production and upgrading it as we go along, with the whole budget to work with, doing this whole project from the ground up.

This is now happening on a much smaller scale, with huge budgetary diversions into upgrading T-90s and T-72s, which we are dependent on the Russians for and always subject to their oversight. It is really something special to neglect a quality product designed in India and which we have full control over, for a mediocre product designed by foreigners and which we have little control over!

This relationship should be turned to our advantage, not allowed to keep us dependent. All this talk of "co-develop" and "JV" must be taken with a very large grain of salt.

[brihaspati]

I fully agree. Try to form an "India" lobby at the defence procurement levels, political backup levels, and bureaucracy levels. I think you will see the fun. I will not go into the ND scenario where I have had some experience of walking along in the shadow of king[and queen]makers. You can try to explore this with others on the forum who have "deep" connections with the strategic and decision making circles. See what they say.

By the way "namak" is and used to be a standard taste-enhancer in deals. Money alone does not satisfy jaded tastes.

Part of this is perhaps going into the military subforum topics, and better be dealt there? The hardware debate has its own harcore positions and people argue to the end of endurance about these. We can perhaps confine ourselves to discussing the strategic, and geo-political aspects of Russia vis-a-vis what our targets are?

[Sanku]

This relationship should be turned to our advantage, not allowed to keep us dependent. All this talk of "co-develop" and "JV" must be taken with a very large grain of salt.

Why are you against India acquiring cutting edge technology and products? Despite your assertions, which are rather unfounded and don't go beyond your "say so" (Adm Puri says nothing of the sort that you are trying to extrapolate)

JV is indeed a vehicle for step wise developing Indian mil-ind complex, to move to next step, and as it stand only Russian are reliable enough partners. They may not be perfect, but they are so far ahead of their next competitor in that space that the discussion is irrelevant.

JVs have let us make Brahmos and Arihant, and Cryo tech for GSLV and will give us FGFA and what not. You want India to not have those?

India has indeed acquired substantial knowledge through JVs and other such methods, and not giving it due importance would not be wise.

[Austin]

^^^ Two theories
1. Putin was served authentic Russian Vodka that was made in india
2. Putin does that even when he is Russia...because his servers/security details spit on the fork or pee on the silver before giving to the president. So, subconsciously he is tuned to cleaning everything before he eats.

Funny too much is being made about Putin and Vodka , for all we know those are just security measures or his personal liking , the American president while traveling carry a whole bunch of cooks , equipment ,spices and what not and even his food is supposed to be cooked from the stuff he gets , no one makes any noise about being bad host but if you ask Secret Service those are routine security measures that POTUS takes while traveling.

[Austin]

Frankly speaking i have yet to see any thing substantial that we gained from any JV be it Israel or Russia or MBDA what JV does is it gives you access to latest and greatest that your R&D and Industry cannot develop but your armed forces says badly needs , in the end the JV are governed by IP protection and they allow at best lic dev of those sytem. Its in a way better then direct import because you can customise it much better to your needs.

[shyamd]

^^ We have got a lot from JVs. From Tata's, Mahindra's you see on the roads today, to EW, engines etc (there is a big list). In some cases, its better to buy outright as it saves reinventing the wheel. JV is good as you learn so much from the process (ToT/Qual control etc) that feeds onto future independent projects.

[Austin]

It hasn't helped us in BIG Ticket item like aircraft Engines or Radar , in JV you continue to use those stuff since you lic built them so the ill effect is not obvious and it gets masked under JV.

As far as EW goes DRDO has acquired core competencies in this domain hence no JV was sought.

JV is simple you bring your stuff , I bring mine and we together integrate it , I retain my IP , you retain yours , you lic produce my stuff and i do yours , the advantage is you reduce the cost and technology risk of the project by sharing on equal basis , but JV does not mean you will automatically get the experience and data for systems that you do not own or develop. See even deep TOT in developing a good engine like AL-31FP has not helped us in developing Kaveri and now we are in talks of JV with snecma, same with Shaki engine JV and other program

[Austin]

Russian-Indian Defense Industry Integration: a View from Russia
Konstantin Makienko [ Moscow Defense Brief ]

Defense industries going transnational

It is an undeniable fact that national defense markets and industries around the globe are gradually merging into transnational conglomerations. That fundamental shift is manifesting itself in the following ways:

* Leading countries are pooling their efforts to pursue bilateral and multilateral programs of development, manufacture, procurement and marketing of complex and expensive weapons systems. These programs include the JSF/F-35 fighter, Eurofighter/Typhoon, the Franco-Italian FREMM frigate, and several others.
* Leading defense contractors are merging into bi-national and multinational defense conglomerates, such as the pan-European giants EADS, Thales, MBDA and Eurocopter.
* The national identity of some leading independent contractors is becoming blurred. Britain’s BAE Systems and Rolls Royce, for example, derive most of their revenues from the US defense market and have even considered moving their headquarters to the United States. Both have essentially become British-American companies rather than purely British.
* In another sign of gradual merger between the national defense markets, arms technology transfer regimes are becoming more liberal. Some nations have formed relations of privileged partnership in mutual arms trade.

There are several major reasons for the defense industries and markets going transnational:

* The European defense markets are stagnating and in some cases even shrinking. US defense spending is also likely to fall in the coming years. Most of the growth will therefore come from the developing countries, especially China, India and Russia.
* The cost of developing new weapons systems is skyrocketing. The unit cost of each complex system such as a multirole fighter jet or a warship is also rising all the time.
* Falling defense spending means that fewer units of each system are being ordered, pushing the per-unit costs higher. In a vicious circle, escalating unit costs drive the number of units sold down, which in turn pushes the unit costs up.

As the defense markets are shrinking, the cost of developing new weapons systems is going up. The industry has responded by increasingly going transnational. That increases the size of the market (which now stretches across national borders) and allows financial and technical risks to be spread among several partners. The result is big transnational defense conglomerations which could well end up turning into common defense markets.

Anglo-American and European conglomerations

The two most closely knit conglomerations are the Anglo-American (trans-Atlantic or, in the wider sense, Anglo-Saxon) and the continental European.

The former is manifested in the uniquely privileged position of British defense companies on the US market, and of the American companies on the British market. In the financial year of 2008 British corporations won 14.4bn dollars worth of Pentagon contracts, which is about 10 per cent of the US defense procurement budget. In 2010 London and Washington signed an agreement that significantly eases the transfer of sensitive military technologies between the two countries. That will provide further impetus to the integration of the two countries’ defense industries and increase their mutual market presence. What is more, the British-American defense conglomeration is becoming the focus of a wider, albeit looser Anglo-Saxon conglomeration, which includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand and to some extent South Africa. It is also becoming the center of gravity for some continental European nations, such as the Netherlands, Sweden and Spain, plus Japan, a traditional military-political satellite of the United States.

Europe, meanwhile, is pushing forward with the initiative to create a common defense market of the European Union. Brussels insists that all the national markets of EU member states should be opened to all European defense contractors. It wants to get rid of national protectionism and introduce uniform procurement procedures. It is also trying to step up joint weapons development and procurement programs under EU auspices. There are two main bodies spearheading that effort. One is the European Defense Agency (EDA), which was formed in 2004 and now includes all EU members except Denmark. The other is the Organization for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR). The latter is involved in several joint European projects, including the A400M, Tiger, Boxer, FREMM, Aster SAM system, etc. The EDA, meanwhile, overseas joint R&D in areas such as countermeasures against improvised explosive devices, news methods of WMD detection, and information network systems. The formation of the common European defense market is in its early stages. But there is a lot of political will in Brussels to speed up that process, which is certain to bring another wave of integration and mergers in the European defense industry.

It is important to note that in both of the examples above the increasingly transnational nature of the defense industries and markets is underpinned by special political relations between the countries involved. The Anglo-Saxon conglomeration is based on the special military and political relationship between Britain and America, while the European conglomeration is a product of integration within the EU.

Russia looking for partners

The modest size of the Russian economy will inevitably force the country to seek partnership with other countries on big defense projects. In some areas that partnership is already happening. Russian defense contractors have started to fit imported systems onto their aircraft and armor platforms exported to third countries. There have also been one-off weapons imports for the needs of the Russian armed forces. But if Russia wants to remain an important player in the international arms trade, it will have to either join one of the existing defense industry alliances or build a new one. If it were to choose the former option, the most logical course of action would be to step up the existing contacts with some European nations, primarily France and Italy. But Russia is entirely unlikely ever to become a full partner in the nascent European defense conglomeration. The political preconditions for such partnership are simply not there. Defense industry alliances are always underpinned by formal or informal military-political unions. Even the closest of Russia’s contacts in Europe are at best partners, but certainly not allies.

Meanwhile, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) countries cannot be viewed as promising defense industry partners. They have neither the required technology, nor the resources to develop it, and their national defense markets are too small anyway. Military these countries are a strategic liability for Russian rather than an asset, and consumers of security rather than producers.

It appears, therefore, that the only realistic partner for defense industry integration with Russia is India.

First, the two countries are not military allies in the formal sense – but their military-political interests coincide completely. Both want to contain the rapidly growing China, and both want to prevent the expansion of fundamentalist Islamic extremism.

Second, Russia and India already have a lot of experience of defense industry cooperation. Some of their joint projects have certainly been more successful than others. The heavy long-range supersonic BrahMos missile has become a big hit, whereas the medium transport aircraft (MTA) project is languishing. But India’s decision to join the Russian fifth-generation fighter program has been a major milestone. This is the first joint project in which the two sides are full partners and fully share all the risks.

Finally, India and Russia have very similar administrative and business cultures. That may not be such a blessing in terms of the efficiency of their joint projects – but at least the two partners will better understand each other’s inner workings.

India’s defense market is very open to competition, and the policy of its government is not to rely too much on any single supplier. The task of creating a common Russian-Indian defense market is therefore very complex – possibly to the point of being unrealistic. But for now, India remains the best and, very likely, the only possible candidate for the role of Russia’s strategic defense industry partner.

[rajanb]

Thanks Austin

[RSoami]

Thanks Austin Saar
A very nice read.

The European defense markets are stagnating and in some cases even shrinking

I wrote this somewhere else too I think..probably on MRCA thread. The Europeans have their backs to the wall. They would be more willing to share their MIC wth india. I think technology wise too, it would be more beneficial for India to align with them rather than with Russia.
And hopefuly less foreign policy strings too, owing to `backs to the wall` situation. .

Regards

[brihaspati]

The Europeans will not even bat an eyelid to help Islamists on the sly, against India, if they feel it is in their "national" interests to do so. This makes them very dubious and unreliable even in mil tech collaborations - especially JV - as long as Pak survives and the "Kashmir" issue is kept alive. Germany "allowed" things to be handed over to Pak. Things have not really changed. Then the excuse was "cold war" and "dependence on USA" etc., now it could be "trade", "human rights", "investments", and a "lasting solution" to inflammable "self determination" problems.

[RajeshA]

The Europeans will not even bat an eyelid to help Islamists on the sly, against India, if they feel it is in their "national" interests to do so. This makes them very dubious and unreliable even in mil tech collaborations - especially JV - as long as Pak survives and the "Kashmir" issue is kept alive. Germany "allowed" things to be handed over to Pak. Things have not really changed. Then the excuse was "cold war" and "dependence on USA" etc., now it could be "trade", "human rights", "investments", and a "lasting solution" to inflammable "self determination" problems.

brihaspati garu,

Keep an eye on the Freedom Front and their rise in European politics. They will soon be king-makers in Europe.

[brihaspati]

RajeshAji,
hardly 10-15% strength and that is optimistic. Too heavy investments from the Gulf and the banking/finance circles will not let the FF to rise beyond a certain point. They will be prepared to brand the FF a neo-Nazi and "fascist" movement in order to protect their financial interests. Follow up on the Serb and Croatia tactic. The whole was quite stage-managed - provocation and sponsor Islamist atrocities, and revive the memories of "past atrocities" in the non-Muslims [the societies always remember what Islam did to their ancestors even if Marxist historians of the Indo-European schools whitewash all that] so that they begin to over-react in paranoia. The financial muscle is then flexed and the over-reaction is used to give in to the Islamic fund owner masters for the carving out of an Islamic homeland.

Of course in the Balkans - the fact that it would be the "Russian" smelling "Orthodox" that gets kicked and split and the Islamic homeland is created on their homeland - is an added bonus. Mix biz with pleasure [I mean ideological hatred for the "other/competitor"].