Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

[RajeshA]

The issues in the India-China relationship are quite straight-forward - it boils down to provision of nuclear weapons to depraved terrorist gangs like the Pakistan Army. Similarly, in North East Asia, China is supporting another terrorist gang - namely the "Dear Leader" and his henchmen.

That is one clear move, that has been both discernible and extremely aggressive. But behind that move, there is a plan. And if they have a plan, then one would have to see which other discernible, subtle, and hidden moves they could be making. All of those, as well as all the possible moves, need to be neutralized in a timely fashion.

[brihaspati]

What if we call the bluff and ignore the so-called "nuclear weapons" stockpile of Pak? I would rather see GOI openly and publicly organizing annual or bi-annual exercises in evacuating entire cities and regional populations to prepare them for potential nuclear attacks by Pak and China? Declare to the people - no need to even pay any heed to the two types of harangues and speeches thrown at GOI then from "outside" - that GOI has reasons to believe that both these countries have already placed nuclear tipped missiles to target large cities and populations centres of India as part of coordinated invasion plans. So it is preparing people for all eventualities.

Also warn that organizing systems and structures will be closely monitored for people with potential connection to China and Pak - in case they participate to gain information about GOI response methods.

On the other side - if India cannot attack or retaliate for Paki Islamist sadism on India because of fear of nukes - the same should be the case for Pak too? Surely Pak must be even more worried about retaliation for Indian return payment in Islamist kind - since India too has nukes? So why not keep up the bleeding of Pak at a constant rate? How much does it cost to have a new mysterious faction of the Lashkar that is decidedly angry about their parent outfit and its sponsors' perfidy in not being Jihadi enough - and that as long as Paki gov survives - that lashkar's dream remains unfulfilled. They do not even have to be "Muslims"!

We need to needle the Pakis! Humiliate them in the language they understand best - and there can be choice Urdu expressions to do this - from mysterious radio stations or through leaflets and posters etc. Almost a lakh Paki braves desperately submitted to Indian soldiers in '71 - their bravery could not give them strength to face the BD freedom fighters - that is the Islamism of Pak! They can torture and behead captured Indian soldiers from the safety of their barracks, they can rape captured women from the safety of their barracks - but make them face real defeat and torture - ah, the Pakis will all grovel in the mud and piss in fear. They have always, always, only survived and won by deception and surprise attacks or ambushes - Islamics never really were good at face to face fight or up to tasting their own medicine.

Here is a paper tiger that has fluttered long enough!

[RajeshA]

I congratulate you again for connecting the dots, and hopefully many here in BRF and other strategic circles in India will also come round to your line of thinking, in course of time.
...
I am also waiting to see how BRF guru's and old timers react to your break through proposition.

I hope to write a sort of a small ebook, as was advised by shiv, and put a link here on BRF for download. I'd like to include many of the discussions, we all have had here, in the ebook.

I have come to realize, after years of reflection and analysis of our (BM and BD) geo-strategic situation, that our (BD) future is with India, not Pakistan or PRC or US led West. It is kind of obvious if one looks at the map. As you have pointed out, we are Indic SDRE first and foremost, so advancement of Indic SDRE interest on the face of the globe will advance our interest. Secondly we are SDRE Muslims, mostly (around 150 million) and some SD followers (around 15 million). Merger of BD with India will hopefully solve to a large extent the problem of security and abuse of SD followers by hands of majority BM's, or in the least increase the potentials to improve the situation in that direction. Although the Deganga incident shows to support brihaspati ji's POV, I would say that addition of BD and its elite will cause a reversal of the trend and reduce Deganga type incidents, as the rogue elements of BM political leadership will be reigned in by more responsible elite from BD side, I believe. And being SDRE Muslims, as you said, we are right there at the bottom of the pecking order, together with black sub-saharan Muslims, or perhaps just one notch above them. But this pecking order can be turned upside down once India becomes a superpower and SDRE becomes == with white or East Asians. If BD is merged with India, we also become part of this superpower and hopefully take part in the endeavor and share the fruits of this success, from early on.

The Subcontinent is an ecosystem, a family. A family does not necessarily stay together, and many build another hut at some distance from that of the parents or of brothers. As long as there were no external powers, an outsider, an alien clan, interested in sowing dissent amongst the family members, it was fine to live separately in our individual huts. We have had differences and have fought a bit also. That too takes place in a family.

But when you have a cunning hegemon like China on the prowl, more than willing to sow the seeds of strife within the family, who nudges every family member to burn down the huts of other family members, then the family should forget their huts and build a fortress.

I'd love to see a Bangladeshi Muslim as say a Foreign Minister of India taking the bozos from Islamabad, like say Qureishi, apart, something, say a Hindu Foreign Minister from Karnataka, has some difficulty doing under the present circumstances.

There are several web forums started by Bangladeshi's. I know the people in bdmilitary.com quite well, not personally but by participating there for some time. I have also been to defence.pk to check it out and found that there are some pak-allied BD posters there led by one famous Munshi who has written a book, I find their logic old and useless. bdsdf was started by one Maruf, I believe he is a friend of my elder brother. I registered there today and am able to log in, but having trouble to see the posts, so I emailed the admin. I also used to post in Drishtipat, a HRW (Human Rights Watch) affiliated website started by a BD expat in NY. I am not sure about Maruf and bdsdf, but the others have some agenda behind them and I believe are lacking in integrity or depth. So I am willing to check out bdsdf. In general, I hardly found anyone from BD who can break out of their ossified thinking and come up with innovative solutions for the problems we face as a people and as a nation, which are not at all small, so I am skeptical that I will find much support any where, at least from BD end. From my years of web involvement, I found one admirer from bdmilitary, who actually called me up and introduced himself and eventually we became good friends over the phone. He is a BD expat in the US like myself. He is close to the strategic thinkers of the theological and political elite and personally knows many of them. I have not heard from him from some months, but I can get in touch with him. He is a dyed in the wool Islamist who drank the pak-jab and chinee koolaid, but he also believes that for BD we need our own thinking and our own way and he believes one of our own more than he believes others. I think with him I may have a team to get to work. Of course being from there, I am sure I can find many others who I can rely on, if there is a need to promote ideas.

AKalam ji,

your enthusiasm is inspiring!

Tell your friends that Bangladeshi Muslims have far bigger dreams to dream and far bigger fights to fight than their imaginations, centered around the present borders of Bangladesh or the distribution of Bangladeshi diaspora, have allowed the Bangladeshis to do till now. And it is not just Bangladeshis who will be dreaming bigger. The inclusion of Bangladesh in an Indian Subcontinental Union, would allow Indians also to dream bigger.

Please continue to impress upon Bangladeshis that the destiny of the SDRE nation belongs together.

[TonyMontana]

What if we call the bluff and ignore the so-called "nuclear weapons" stockpile of Pak? I would rather see GOI openly and publicly organizing annual or bi-annual exercises in evacuating entire cities and regional populations to prepare them for potential nuclear attacks by Pak and China? Declare to the people - no need to even pay any heed to the two types of harangues and speeches thrown at GOI then from "outside" - that GOI has reasons to believe that both these countries have already placed nuclear tipped missiles to target large cities and populations centres of India as part of coordinated invasion plans. So it is preparing people for all eventualities.

Also warn that organizing systems and structures will be closely monitored for people with potential connection to China and Pak - in case they participate to gain information about GOI response methods.

On the other side - if India cannot attack or retaliate for Paki Islamist sadism on India because of fear of nukes - the same should be the case for Pak too? Surely Pak must be even more worried about retaliation for Indian return payment in Islamist kind - since India too has nukes? So why not keep up the bleeding of Pak at a constant rate? How much does it cost to have a new mysterious faction of the Lashkar that is decidedly angry about their parent outfit and its sponsors' perfidy in not being Jihadi enough - and that as long as Paki gov survives - that lashkar's dream remains unfulfilled. They do not even have to be "Muslims"!

We need to needle the Pakis! Humiliate them in the language they understand best - and there can be choice Urdu expressions to do this - from mysterious radio stations or through leaflets and posters etc. Almost a lakh Paki braves desperately submitted to Indian soldiers in '71 - their bravery could not give them strength to face the BD freedom fighters - that is the Islamism of Pak! They can torture and behead captured Indian soldiers from the safety of their barracks, they can rape captured women from the safety of their barracks - but make them face real defeat and torture - ah, the Pakis will all grovel in the mud and piss in fear. They have always, always, only survived and won by deception and surprise attacks or ambushes - Islamics never really were good at face to face fight or up to tasting their own medicine.

Here is a paper tiger that has fluttered long enough!

Why are you so concerned with the End Game? You talk like India is facing a existential crisis and is not a country taking great strides in advancing her economy and the welfare of her people. Is your wounded pride worth the suffering of millions of your own people? Is your urge to punish the Pakistanis and the Chinese so strong that you're willing to risk nuclear war to do it?

Just a question. Do you still live in India? Are you willing to gamble you and your families lives?

[RajeshA]

Is your urge to punish the Pakistanis and the Chinese so strong that you're willing to risk nuclear war to do it?

Where has he called for a nuclear war?

He is also posing the question: Is Pakistan and China's urge to poke India so strong, that they're willing to risk nuclear war to do it.

[brihaspati]

TonyMontana ji,
in your eagerness to protect Chinese and Pak nuclear targeting of India, and perhaps even the eagerness to see to it that Indians do not take even defensive measures to save their lives from nuclear attacks by your country of allegiance and its lackey - you have missed your step!

In all of my post, I have only asked that GOI prepares for future nuclear attack by China and Pak by preparing its city dwellers - huge population concentrations - as well as regional rural populations in the more fertile plains areas.

If India is constantly being warned not to retaliate in conventional ways or apply the methods applied by China and Pak against India - constant sponsorship of terror and sabotage - because Pak will lob a nuke at India for retaliating (and Chinese missiles being placed all across the Himalayas) - my question was pretty simple : why should not Pak and China be similarly be concerned with the fact that India has nukes too! What your beloved communist regime (to which you have declared that you are duty bound to support and join in any of the moves they mount - and therefore which logically implies that you will happily join in any invasion of India by China or fully support pre-emptive nuclear bombardment of Indians) has obviously intended to do, as otherwise they would not have proliferated nukes to Pak, has to be countered no? You dont even want Indians to practise how to deal with it?

How sick mentally can you become to try and convince Indians not even to prepare for your regimes potential nuke attack!!

[ramana]

Tony Montana,
You are disrupting every thread. I request you to confine yourself to only China related threads if you want to stay around.

ramana

[brihaspati]

Additionally :

Why are you so concerned with the End Game? You talk like India is facing a existential crisis and is not a country taking great strides in advancing her economy and the welfare of her people. Is your wounded pride worth the suffering of millions of your own people? Is your urge to punish the Pakistanis and the Chinese so strong that you're willing to risk nuclear war to do it?

Just a question. Do you still live in India? Are you willing to gamble you and your families lives?

Why are you yourself so concerned with the End Game not working out in your country's favour? After all India did not attack China - and it was China who started the game in the first place! Having started it you do not want it to end?

You seem to talk like China is facing an existential crisis and is not a country taking great strides in advancing her economy and the welfare of her people - since in post after post you have acknowledged that you feel duty-bound to support whatever China is doing to India? Now why would you and China go on doing this if you are not suffering from the delusion and perhaps a perfidious excuse - of appraently facing an existential crisis?

Is your wounded pride at the Dalai Lama having escaped with his life and independence or the Tibetans who have escaped torture and rape by your glorious claimed uniform Chinese ethnicity to carry on their culture peacefully in India worth the suffering of millions of your own people in case India decided to pay China back in its own coin? Is your urge to punish the GOI and the Indian people so strong that you're willing to risk nuclear war to do it?

Just a question. Do you still live in China? Are you willing to gamble your's and your families lives?

[ramana]

Bji, I already told him not to post inother threads.
ramana

[brihaspati]

okay.

[TonyMontana]

Bji, I already told him not to post inother threads.
ramana

With all due respect, isn't this thread China related? As China is being discussed? I implore you to reconsider banning me from this thread. But I will respect your decision either way. If anyone wish to contiune this discussion, please x-post it to the relevent threads.

P.S. It's interesting that dissenting voices need to be regulated and controlled.

[svinayak]

The guy wants a free market, democracy discussion board to discuss and defend a totalitarian and aggressive regime.
This is the first time we have such a situation

[RajeshA]

Bji, I already told him not to post in other threads.
ramana

With all due respect, isn't this thread China related? As China is being discussed? I implore you to reconsider banning me from this thread. But I will respect your decision either way. If anyone wish to contiune this discussion, please x-post it to the relevent threads.

TonyMontana ji,
There are many threads that touch upon China, but their focus is different, more India related or more regional or more issue-related.

Technically speaking, you've the freedom to take some quotes from here, and respond to in other China-centered threads, and place link back to the post you responded to. If other posters find your comments interesting, they will continue the discussion with you there.

In some threads, mention of China is simply a marginal or secondary issue, and by focusing on it, especially from your PoV, you would simply derail the discussion there.

But there is enough activity in China-focussed threads, where that PoV could be considered relevant and interesting.

Others may not see the need to x-post so don't hold your breath.

P.S. It's interesting that dissenting voices need to be regulated and controlled.

Getting over your CCP-hangover would be slow and tedious. They do not lurk behind every door in the world.

[AKalam]

Akalam bhai,
I have long appreciated your POV and have welcomed you, and also requested fellow forumites to let you "speak". Similarly I much appreciate RajeshA ji's painstakingly detailed thoughts on a practical programme of what I choose to call "consolidation" rather than unification since I consider all of the subcontinent geographically, and a much larger piece of the global human population ideologically as belonging to the "Indic". Without going into the nitty-gritty of the term (which have previously gone into length and fierce debates), I think I can illustrate the issue at stake - by using the apparent POV's of the three of us.

I started the previous version of this thread, with the intent of gradually exploring the concept of a single politico-military entity all over the subcontinent and beyond based on some concept of Bharatyia nationhood. In this I moved away from geoography in its ordinary sense, and emphasized more on the idea of "nationhood" that survives in a living people - regardless of their circumstances and location. Essentially for me it had to give priority to the "cultural" basis of such nationhood over and above geography - for the essence of a people lies in its ability to preserve and enhance its accumulated civilizational knowledge.

I came to SD because it fully accommodated my reasoning mind and the modern scientific method without having to necessarily commit myself to closing off continuous quest for greater understanding and even re-examine supposed older already reached ultimate understanding. I did not find any existing other theological or ideological frameworks to allow this within itself. For me from this conclusion it became necessary to look or ways in which this civilizational achievement could be preserved and protected and extended. This meant preserving, protecting and extending Bharat. Such an extension needs "physical" extension and expansion of a nation based on that "civilization" to feed, protect, and maintain the civilization.

From this comes my conclusion that we need to disarm and defang ideologies that have consistently gone against the roots, sustenance, and brain of the Bharatyia civilization. I have always considered people separately from their ideologies, and therefore for me an ideological cleansing, reorientation is a necessary and inseparable part of the process. Without that no expanded, "union" would be stable or be able to carry out its civilizational task.

Hence my position has come towards elimination of the theological institutions and source of ideological continuation that are anti-Indic as a pre or concurrent condition for the "consolidation/unification" process.

I can see where your position comes in and differs from mine is that you do not think this as necessary or perhaps even consider such a precondition detrimental, based perhaps from a combination of genuine affection for aspects of the theology you were born into as well as political implementational considerations.

For RajesA ji, his position on "this" side of SD makes it similarly difficult to endorse keeping "hostile" theological aspects intact based perhaps again on a similar combination as yours. But he is perhaps less rigid than me in insisting on the cleansing as he may be of the conviction that parts of the hostile ideologies could be salvaged and made compatible for co-existence.

As you can see, all three of us aim for "expansion" and consolidation and union, but each of us have slightly different ultimate aims that are derived from slightly different perceptions and conclusions about the nature and future of "ideologies". These slight differences in aim lead to major differences in tactics and methodologies.

This is a small scale representation of what has happened in the SD-Islamic dynamic on the subcontinent since the Brits at least. In spite of all talks of economics being the only factor worth studying and concentrating on - the very fact that we still have to be uncomfortable with the reality of Pak and BD shows that ideology is not chimera that can be wished away. Even within BD, the different streams of thoughts that become apparent could be a similar methodological difference in achieving a common goal that of regional, Islam based dominance from BD. Whether that aim is realistic or not is a different question - but I am on the cautionary position that apparently "friendly" approaches from section of BD politics need not represent a fundamental target difference from those who are vehement opponents.

But my experience in politics suggests that the three of us could very well use each other towards moving towards our individual aims - leading to a a realizable common minimum programme being achievable - and hence my encouragement to both of you!

brihaspati ji,

I always remember your initial welcome after my arrival at BRF and your continued support, please accept my sincere gratitude.

I read your posts with interest as you have a sound background in history and you have a good understanding of the importance of ideology. As you mentioned, without differences in ideology, we would never have two-nation theory, partition and the countries called Pak and BD.

I also understand your emphasis and enthusiasm on cleansing the subcontinent of the alien ideologies that invaded from abroad and created this complicated and difficult situation we have today.

While I understand and sympathize with your sentiment, I also tend to think that it is a little idealistic and Utopian and if implementation of these ideas are done in haste, it would cause much suffering and disruption.

In the real world we make compromises and solve immediate problems at hand and wait patiently for opportune moments for our dreams to take fruition at some point in the future. Sometimes we just sow the seed and leave it for future generations to carry on and finish the task. People do change ideologies just like they change clothes, it has happened since the advent of ideologies along with empires and civilizations that needed them to unify their large diverse populations. Just consider what we had before the Rig Veda's (although the details are murky that far back in history), and then after the arrival of Buddha and Buddhism on the scene. Many major empires accepted Buddhism as their predominant ideology starting from Asoka, the Gupta's, the Pala's etc. But then Buddhism went on decline and SD was ascendant and making a come back right before the Turkic Islamic onslaught began. A few centuries later Mughal was in decline and SD was ascendant again. So things are always in flux, here in the subcontinent and else where. The future is not written in stone, it all depends on hard work, good leadership and a bit of luck IMHO.

Although I was born into a family and tradition belonging to a certain ideology, when I study societies, I try to suppress my sympathies as much as possible and make attempts to be objective. But I am also human and cannot escape the gratitude I must feel for the ideology of the society which sustained my previous generations and made me who I am today, so I am guilty of some partiality and softness for my native ideology, no question about it. But this gratitude is not just limited to one ideology, my identity is rooted in the fact that there is 60,000 years of human history in the subcontinent after "out-of-Africa" migration. That ethnic mix of older groups, which is collectively known as Indic, is also a much larger part of my identity. Ideologies like worn out clothes can come and go, but my ethnic identity as a Bengali, as a sub-region of the mainly Indic subcontinent, with all its previous migrations and mixes of people, is also a much bigger and more permanent part of my identity. And that is true for not just myself and Bengali's as a group, but any human groups from any geographic corner of the globe, I believe.

The most important fact of all, despite our different POV, which we can understand and respect, is in your words:

"the three of us could very well use each other towards moving towards our individual aims - leading to a a realizable common minimum programme being achievable - and hence my encouragement to both of you!"

Thanks for your kind words. I think it is important to find common grounds and work towards goals that will bring win-win situation for our Indic family and cause takleef for external players who want to take advantage of the apparent ideological division between family members.

Just because some of us here on this web forum reach a common understanding, does not mean that much will change on the ground, unless we make sustained effort to spread our ideas and eventually let them take root at the grass roots level. But beginning is important, like they say, taking the first step is 50% of reaching the goal.

[abhischekcc]

With all due respect, isn't this thread China related? As China is being discussed? I implore you to reconsider banning me from this thread. But I will respect your decision either way. If anyone wish to contiune this discussion, please x-post it to the relevent threads.

P.S. It's interesting that dissenting voices need to be regulated and controlled.

TonyMonotonous,

You would not know dissent ifeven if you crashed into one. There is one thing to disagree, and another to be disagreeable.

[AKalam]

RajeshA ji,

Good analogy of extended family living in many adjacent huts and the need for a fortress to protect against outsiders.

The possibilities of dreaming big is a definite plus.

Please post a link for the ebook when it is ready. And thanks again for words of encouragement.

I have one question, should we package the idea as SAARC integration minus Pakistan and Afghanistan or should we approach it as bilateral merger projects between India and its neighbors, taken up separately. Which one would be preferable in your opinion, or can you think of any other alternative suggestion.

[RajeshA]

RajeshA ji,

Good analogy of extended family living in many adjacent huts and the need for a fortress to protect against outsiders.

The possibilities of dreaming big is a definite plus.

Please post a link for the ebook when it is ready. And thanks again for words of encouragement.

I have one question, should we package the idea as SAARC integration minus Pakistan and Afghanistan or should we approach it as bilateral merger projects between India and its neighbors, taken up separately. Which one would be preferable in your opinion, or can you think of any other alternative suggestion.

There is a post referring to that aspect: Take all along.

I think, it is important that SAARC be used as the vehicle for the Subcontinental Integration. There is an historic trust and confidence in SAARC's mission and with brand SAARC, and that should be used. Of course, there is a far larger lack of confidence in SAARC's capacity to deliver, which plays to some extent in the favor of Consolidationist argument, because non-Consolidationists would come along, without any fear that any high goals set out by SAARC, would actually succeed in the end.

So even if SAARC, as a whole, has no chance of getting the Subcontinent the desired Consolidation, when subdivided into a Two Speed SAARC, a SAARC-Subgroup looking for more integration, can proceed with the mission uninterrupted by the Obstructionist, i.e. Pakistan.

I also think SAARC countries should not be locking out Pakistan from participating. It would itself show the tactical brilliance of excluding itself. Its anti-India hate makes it predictable. It may be there in the beginning as a participant or as an observer, and would do the huff-and-puff number a little later, when the direction of the talks starts to sound very threatening to Pakistan's elite. But that would then be too late, as the expectations and hopes of the Pakistanis, especially in Sindh, Baluchistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, and most of all in the Mohajir community, would already have been awakened, proving the process to be a Pandora's Box for the Pakistani elite.

Should Pakistan for some reason or another, not act as expected, India can always do some H&D damage by some comment or action, triggering the huff-and-puff reaction in Pakistan, making it withdraw.

The more the Integration Process moves forward, the more the rest of the Pakistanis would be blaming the Pakjabis, for not participating in the Integration, sowing the seeds of alienation and break-up, for they would say, they want to proceed without Pakjab, if Pakjab has a problem, or the Subcontinent has a problem with Pakjab.

Who ultimately from Pakistan is allowed to unify with the rest of the Subcontinent, is a different matter and would have to be considered after through analysis and necessary precautions. Pushtun Areas should belong in Pushtunistan. Pakjab should never be allowed to join the subcontinental union for the next , because that would destroy the project.

Afghanistan can be considered for a common market and a common-currency, but not for political union with it.

To answer your question

It should be called SAARC Integration.

Integration sounds neutral regarding the ultimate goal, so all could jump into the bus for a ride. Consolidation is a functional aim. Unification is a milestone metric, which can sound unnerving to many people in the beginning. As mentioned Merger between India and any other State in the Indian Subcontinent cannot take place on bilateral basis. It has to be a multilateral project.

The Indians and Bangladeshis should however have an unspoken agreement on where this is all going, and other parties should be confided in as we move along. I went into the implementation issues in the earlier post.

It should be implemented by a Common Currency Subcommittee of SAARC, and later on by Political Integration Subcommittee of SAARC, etc, as we move along. It should all sound innocuous, until the Political Union stares us in the face. Of course outside in the media and people, there needs to be excitement for the process.

[brihaspati]

What happens after the electoral slap to Obama? We should see some quick "positive" developments on the Islamist and Maoist fronts. There will be a softening of stance on Palestine from the Islamist camp, and some more economic concessions from China. Otherwise democrats and Obama are not returning to help out. If this does not draw corresponding signals from the Republican side - then we can see a sudden turn for the worse where China and the Islamists scramble towards the end of the presidency to tighten the screw.

Does this mean the plans for J&K get shelved? Unlikely - this is one area that can save lots of faces!

[brihaspati]

An interesting but intriguing indicator in Maharashtra about the leading lights of state gov showing their indignation. If the dynastic ruler orders them to fall in line and behave "well" and "meek", the ruler makes a permanent enemy - for nothing else motivates revenge in such circles as much if "prestige" is at stake. In that case those regional satraps may swallow but a wise ruler will take the precaution of sidelining the regional satrap who had been forced to swallow his pride - just for the safe keeping of throne and for princelings. But that makes the regional satrap an enemy even more.

On the other hand - the power basis of that region lies in the coastal "trade" - and has been allowed to corner the best of the financial meat processing butchery where the sheep and goat of the entire country has been made to be forced to come for slaughter. This coastal trade is so strong that nothing can be done to D-company, and nothing could be done to even retaliate against 26/11. So the show of indignation could be a challenge to the rulers at Delhi, and even if they bypass and downplay the incident - the first signs of centrifugal forces in the Sultanate are appearing.

[RajeshA]

Bangladesh Group on Facebook

WE HATE "RAJAKAR" & "JAMAAT-E-ISLAMI"

Those who committed genocide and other human rights abuses in Bangladesh, need to be brought to justice. There needs to be a UN Tribunal for this. Now that India is a UNSC member, upon a request by Bangladeshi Govt. or Bangladeshi Groups who are in favor, perhaps India can start the ball rolling.

In any case, Pakistan needs to pay Bangladesh reparations for 1971.

[Manishw]

An interesting but intriguing indicator in Maharashtra about the leading lights of state gov showing their indignation. If the dynastic ruler orders them to fall in line and behave "well" and "meek", the ruler makes a permanent enemy - for nothing else motivates revenge in such circles as much if "prestige" is at stake. In that case those regional satraps may swallow but a wise ruler will take the precaution of sidelining the regional satrap who had been forced to swallow his pride - just for the safe keeping of throne and for princelings. But that makes the regional satrap an enemy even more.

On the other hand - the power basis of that region lies in the coastal "trade" - and has been allowed to corner the best of the financial meat processing butchery where the sheep and goat of the entire country has been made to be forced to come for slaughter. This coastal trade is so strong that nothing can be done to D-company, and nothing could be done to even retaliate against 26/11. So the show of indignation could be a challenge to the rulers at Delhi, and even if they bypass and downplay the incident - the first signs of centrifugal forces in the Sultanate are appearing.

B Ji to my mind these c forces have now started appearing in most parts of India, the Sultanate though perhaps aware of it is trying to downplay things.Ultimately there are only so many balls one can juggle in the air.IMO the whole national fabric is started to get stress tested and more is likely to come.

[brihaspati]

Almost everyone there seems to be involved - which is to be expected, as revealed in the symptoms like non-touchability of D-company. But AC is a candidate for axing. But no one to replace with. if replaced, that person will not be viable - if he is outof the network!

[brihaspati]

We still have to wait for BHO to leave and see what he promises to others. But most of the real talks will go on below the radar of the media. India must have a post-USA plan ready for AFPAK - and it shoudl not be about how to shore up the Islamist governments of these regions. It will simply be money spent to arm our enemies who will combine their resources to pull hard ones on India.

[brihaspati]

The BD opposition leader has threatened "ultimate sacrifice" if necessary to stop the current regime in its tracks. One of the main issues she mentions repeatedly is her opposition to the supposed "free" transit to be given to India through BD to NE India - which she represents as intrusion into BD sovereignty.

The AL government is somehow heading up to a militant opposition in which the role of the army can remain ambiguous. The BDR uprising sort of foiled the army's line which has remained on the whole on the right-right-wing side. This was perhaps the only factor that has shaken the BD army to a certain extent - and otherwise we might have seen a swing back toward the more reactionary side after pressure from the west temporarily forced them to reliquish power.

It will be good to have a keener analysis of BD internals now with respect to the politics of the entire NE region, Nepal and Myanmar and PRC role behind it - if any.

[Nair]

The only options visible to the government are the positive moves.

That is why I said, "we go to war with the Government we have".

Fair enough. Good reasoning. Much is centered on leadership issue.

But it is imperative to track how the hindu population in Bangladesh has fared historically. It has been on the decline and continues even to this day. This will be preliminary bench mark that has to sustain for a period in future atleast as long as the Bangladesh has existed. The odds of even meeting the minimum modicum criteria by Bangladesh is very very low. The taqqiya component has to be taken away from the BDs. This will be one of the preliminary steps that India has to do.
P.S.: The common BDs who have sneaked inside India to much touted livelihood and putting the future of their children is complete hogwash. The BDs who have made it into India illegally have demonstrated their primary concern in Deganga (W.Bengal) not so recently.

I am sorry but some of the posts here have been rather bizarre...instead of trying to save Indian lands from illegal Bangladeshi immigration people are actually propagating that all the BD muslims should be made part of India?

Have the Hindus forgotten their history so quickly?..go visit Hampi and see what the muslims did to the Hindus in the past and now you guys want to double their numbers in India?

Thanks JwalaMukhi for your post..we saw what increased muslim population will do in Deganga just 2 months back.

[brihaspati]

I am following the media of BD and what I note can be summarized as follows :
(1) there is a distinct trend of encouraging more cultural inclusiveness of the non-Muslim in media representations
(2) the AL is deliberately taking steps to revive the old rancour aginst Islamist-Paki connection to prevent any attempt to "forget and forgive"
(3) this could be coming from a very real fear that parts of the state machinery - army, intelligence, security forces, and bureaucracy could be in sabotage mode and could be planning ina coordinated way to bring back a more Islamist - Paki leaning regime. That could invite the wrath of USA-UK-India - who perhaps have provided a lot of international support for the return of democracy. The end result could be the loss of BD soverignty itself.

Will it be possible for BD to really shake off its Islamism? I doubt it. But if they are encouraged to really go for it, that could be their end, since it will show that even Bengali "nationalism" was and remains an artificial and historically outdated concept - not strong enough to resist slavery to the ME. In that case it has no basis for soverignty.

[brihaspati]

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... he_endgame

The establishment of a patronage relationship between Karzai and Tehran is logical for both sides and unsurprising. With the United States inevitably heading for the exit, Karzai has an obvious need to diversify his external support. As a neighboring power, Iran has an interest in obtaining influence within Afghanistan. What was surprising was Karzai's use of this revelation to antagonize U.S. officials and flagrantly flaunt his independence from their plans.

Karzai's seemingly deliberate attempt to speed up the end-game for the U.S. campaign is now increasingly evident. Perhaps he fears U.S. officials will be too successful establishing rivals to him. Or perhaps he fears that the longer the U.S. campaign goes on, the more chaotic conditions will become and the less control he will have over his own fate.

Whatever his reasoning, this week's events were evidence that Karzai is not only preparing for a post-American Afghanistan, he seems to be taking steps to hasten its arrival. One wonders how Karzai's new gambits fit into the U.S. campaign plan and what adjustments to that plan U.S. policymakers might now have to make.

As we had speculated that Iran might actually have an interest in building up its handle in AFG, overruling the so-called all important Shia-Sunni divide. But why would Karazai push his US patrons? A signal to give more? Or a pressure to keep them interested and not really leave? Or to keep the US parked in the neighbourhood of FATA to keep both the AFG side and the Pak side of the region under check?

It appears likely that at least some sort of pressure is being mounted from inside the Indian side (at least some subset) to keep the Indian handle on inside AFG, and some degree of understanding between the US, and Indian side could have already been established for partial substitution/relacement of US marines by or independent role of Indian military units.

The tricky part is how much the two countries can ensure the stability within AFG that will in turn stabilize their role?

[Klaus]

But if they are encouraged to really go for it, that could be their end, since it will show that even Bengali "nationalism" was and remains an artificial and historically outdated concept - not strong enough to resist slavery to the ME. In that case it has no basis for soverignty.

Could some form of encouragement be provided through capitalist re-establishment in WB? Bengali nationalism could actually be refabricated into a potent coup de grace tool against Islamism in BD by creating a (artificial) West vs East (or Kolkata vs Dhaka) economic rivalry, temporarily shutting out ME memes from the minds of the populace. It could be yet another instance where desh could use its internal systems to influence happenings in the neighbourhood. This way, the notion that Bengali nationalism is a subset of Indianness can be planted into the minds of BD populace, thereby hastening any repatriation or consolidation.

It sure feels like a stupid idea, at the surface atleast

[Samudragupta]

Sir,
This is my first post in this forum as a new member.
Taking form the above post of Klaus and the economic rivalry of East and West Bengal, I am of the opinion that the West does not even stand any chance of competing with the East in any economic terms at least in the next 25 years. The assumption here is that the sequence of events follows a linear curve without any major disruptions(not sure about this assumptions). The economy of East is $80B while that of the West is $22B, considering that the average economic growth of the east will be around 4% the west needs to add to its economy at least $3B for 20 years to come at par with the East.
Where from this resource will be added to the West and most important will the core agree to allow this resource to be added to the West? Because the West itself does not have the capability to stand up and add this money in its economy and hence it will be defeated against the East under every form of Human activity.

However i don't want to be another pessimist because i feel there is a solution to the problem but then we have to go out of the current model and think of a new model which i have given the name as "Prussiafication of the West Bengal".

I will try to describe the model in the subsequest post.

[Pratyush]

Samudragupta,

Have you taken into account the population of the two Bengals. Along with the access to the hinterland markets and resource base available to them ?.

Absolute numbers make sence only if you have complete equality between any two or more parties. However, if you were to see things in proportion then the disparity of domestic product will not be as great as it seems.

JMT

[Samudragupta]

Pratyushji,
My idea of economic issues in Bengal delta is not a mere competetion between Dacca and Kolkata, economics is only useful upto the stage where it fulfills the ultimate objective of full integration of the Bengal delta in the Indic land.
In this respect i want to add that the economic resources of Dacca will be used by the protaganists only to further their specific interests and not for improving the Human Devolopment index of Bangladesh and it will not be wrong to say those interests will be against the core interest of India. The end result is that the protaganists have $80B to execute their plan and WB have $20B to execute its.

The idea to make a Prussia of WB is actually part of the concept and the core idea is to obtain veto power from the centre in dealing with the East and it includes ,
1. Buildup.
2. Autonomy.
3. Restructuring.
4. Integration.

[Klaus]

Samudragupta ji,

The reasoning given by you was exactly the reason why I'd thought of it as a stupid idea. I'm currently divided on opinions given against Bengali Nationalism as fit to end up in the dustbin just because it came a cropper against ME Islamism.

You are welcome to outline your Prussiafication strategy but please bear in mind that European politico-economic models have time and again caused the sub-continent to have an "immuno-deficiency" syndrome, so to speak. Prussiafication relied heavily on Judeo-Christian movements post the Reformation in northern Europe as well as periodic weak regimes in neighbouring France and Russia to thrive. Here, it is a WB state backed up by a ever-stronger Indian Union trying to keep the 19th century embers of innovation burning and get back in sync with EB.

If you wish, we could take this discussion to the dedicated Bengal thread.

[Pratyush]

SG, again you have ignored that hinterland resources available to WB. Where the West is trying to dominate the east. The east will have access to resources that are organic to east onlee. But for the west it will have access to the resources of the whole of India. Moreover, when the potential of the libralised economy is unleashed then east can be overcome very quickely.

In this respect the problem is the will of the west. The availability of the resources is a secondary issue.

Having said so, I will still wait for you to develop your senario. Perhaps, you will cover ground that I am not seeing.


Regards

[Samudragupta]

Buildup:

1. Significant restructuring of the Education System.
2. Breathneck speed in economy $50B by 2015, Internal and overt resource is not enough for this.
3. Significant change in the ideological charater.
4. Set up large amount of Vyam Samities all around so that people look "beautiful when working".
5. Grooming of Strategic leaders in the filed of Spirituality, Cinema, Literature, law, buisness and most important military skills.
6. NRB called in masse to participate for "The Future of Bengal".
7. Railway and road connectivity improved, easier to go to Dhaka than Patna.
8. Cricket players from Bengal playing for Bangladesh and vice versa.
9. Bauls and Bengali TV serials widely visible.
10.Bangladeshi film industry moved enmasse to Kolkata, more money, quality films.
11. Bangladeshi richs preferring to stay more in clean Kolkata than in Dirty Dhaka.
12. Monetary Union.

In short a society very close to Renaissance if not same.

Autonomy:

1. Bengali Nationalism grows, Borders are not existing for rich and influential elite.
2. Rich and elites on "White card" can move anywhere in Bengal no need of passport or visa, entering NE, Bihar, Orissa, Jharkand reuires Indian Visa.
3. Call for autonomy of WB and union with Bangladesh.
4. Political union, al Bengalis have to move to the new entity, off course work permits can be issued political power divided in perfect half, paramilitary have equal participation, PM is Bangladeshi, Inteligience chief is WB.
5. Military and FP control under India, no Bengal Military only police and that too equal participation.

Restructuring:

1. Islamists backlash, indics killed.
2. Indian military not to intervene ala Lord Wavell.
3. Police overstreched.
4. Tandava.
5. Theocratic network destroyed
6. New politico-cultural reality.


Restructuring can happen in more efficient method

[Samudragupta]

Integration can follow its logical end

[RajeshA]

Samudragupta ji,

You make some points, but the I've still not understood the larger map, where you are going to? Why are you insisting on autonomy for WB? The bullet points in 'Restructuring' seem somewhat missing on context and direction. Please try to explain a bit more clearly, perhaps using the "paragraph", what you wish to accomplish and how your suggestions would take that forwards.

[Samudragupta]

RajeshA Ji,

My post is in direct response of the Integration models that has been put forward by

1. Brihaspatiji,
2. Akalamji,
3. Yourself.

Model of Akalamji:

Economic union without loss of political sovereignity similar to EU.

Model of Yourself:

Politico-economic union with central sovereign state, innovative political system to keep Islamists in check but not solving the inherent problem associated with the imperialist ideology.

Model of Brihaspatiji:

Politico-cultural Union using all available means to integrate the subcontinent. Assumptions for this model is that economics will follow the stable homogeneous society and growth will not be affected. Potential Flaw of this model is that India being considered "Respectable Secular Democracy" which is fithing "Evil Autocratic" China "cannot" work on this model,there are going to be International Ramifications which will afect our long term growth.

Regarding Autonomy of WB and Restructuring, i will try to explain it the subsequent posts.

[RajeshA]

Model of Yourself:

Politico-economic union with central sovereign state, innovative political system to keep Islamists in check but not solving the inherent problem associated with the imperialist ideology.

I wasn't aware, that your posts were aimed at integration modeling for the Indian Subcontinent.Welcome to the club of dreamers!

I'm sorry, I don't quite understand what your mention of "imperialist ideology" refers to - Imperialist ideology of which "empire" on which peoples. Which inherent problem are we talking about?

[Atri]

Krinvanto Vishvam Aryam, may be....

[Atri]

@Aarya Samudragupta

Buildup:

1. Significant restructuring of the Education System. - How?

2. Breathneck speed in economy $50B by 2015, Internal and overt resource is not enough for this. - Happening.. What are acceptable compromises for the same?

3. Significant change in the ideological charater. - Did not understand this.. Do you refer to India rescinding to pre-1975 preamble?

4. Set up large amount of Vyam Samities all around so that people look "beautiful when working". - Please elaborate.. What's the issue about "looking beautiful"?

5. Grooming of Strategic leaders in the filed of Spirituality, Cinema, Literature, law, buisness and most important military skills. - How about grooming mango Hindus/Indics for civil-war situation (the one you refer to in Tandava phase ahead)

6. NRB called in masse to participate for "The Future of Bengal". - you mean something similar to NRG (non resident Gujaratis) help pouring in.. but is Indian nationalism or allegiance to Indic civilization strong enough in Bengal (as compared to western half of India)? Furthermore, is NRB section that affluent?

7. Railway and road connectivity improved, easier to go to Dhaka than Patna. - OK

8. Cricket players from Bengal playing for Bangladesh and vice versa. - Ok and interesting..

9. Bauls and Bengali TV serials widely visible. - OK

10.Bangladeshi film industry moved enmasse to Kolkata, more money, quality films. - Why move here? migrations of business are followed by migrations of people.. en masse migrations of people are always troublesome.. why not develop Dhaka?

11. Bangladeshi richs preferring to stay more in clean Kolkata than in Dirty Dhaka. - Why will Dhaka remain "dirty" if Bengali conscience is stroked so high that NRB start pouring money in "aamar Sonar bangla"? how will Kolkata remain clean (like every metro, kolkata has clean parts and shittty parts) after your proposed "en masse" migration?

12. Monetary Union. - did not understand this.. please elaborate...


In short a society very close to Renaissance if not same.

Autonomy:

1. Bengali Nationalism grows, Borders are not existing for rich and influential elite. - Borders never exist for rich and influential elite unless borders serve their purpose. Borders of a "nation-state" are only for mango-abduls - always..

2. Rich and elites on "White card" can move anywhere in Bengal no need of passport or visa, entering NE, Bihar, Orissa, Jharkand reuires Indian Visa. - Why this "varna-vyavastha"? It is this "elite" which competes for power and it is for assuaging and "taking care" of their need for power, that this desh was partitioned..

3. Call for autonomy of WB and union with Bangladesh. - Akhanda Vanga-Bhumi is good concept - But same advice - think again.. refer to tripartite power-struggle from 700 AD to 1000 AD in India between Pratiharas, Rashtrakutas and Palas.. Refer to what happened to Bengal after Pala rule? is identity of "akhanda-Vanga" ripe enough (or will be ripe enough in time-frame you are proposing) that in spite of Akhanda Vanga, the umbilical chord with mother will strengthen?

4. Political union, al Bengalis have to move to the new entity, off course work permits can be issued political power divided in perfect half, paramilitary have equal participation, PM is Bangladeshi, Inteligience chief is WB. - same as above - think again..

5. Military and FP control under India, no Bengal Military only police and that too equal participation. - What India? In case of "akhanda-Vanga", what will India be? Which India you are referring to? ROI?

Restructuring:

1. Islamists backlash, indics killed.
2. Indian military not to intervene ala Lord Wavell.
3. Police overstreched.
4. Tandava.
5. Theocratic network destroyed
6. New politico-cultural reality.

this will happen irrespective of anything... In case of akhanda vanga, what will be ROP power centres from upper gangetic valley be doing? In case of their activity, what will Hindus from GV be doing? In case of all this, what do you think, Hindus to the south of Vindhyas would be doing?


The most important question is - What time-frame you propose for all this to happen? how long will it take?

India is a vast neural network. Various provinces are linked with each other in similar way as components of complex ecosystem like coral reef. the complex interplay of million components is what makes a coral reef beautiful. trying to simplify things might damage the entire network and all that it stands for.. the problem which we are facing is problem of accumulated excreta over thousand years.. trying to remove junk of thousand years requires identification and differentiation of junk from essential stuff.. it has to be a continuous process..