Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Jan 1 2010)

[shyam]

^^^
^^^
Everybody and his grandpa have identified their own strategic sectors that must not be opened...

[shyam]

The Chinese Decade.

Something has been bothering me lately and it is our assumption that China is the world’s next superpower and that we’d darned well better get used to it. Hogwash. We’re into the Chinese decade, not the Chinese Century.

The century belongs to India.
...

So we’re giving it up to the Indians. not to the Chinese. China has the population, the will, the educational system, the foreign currency reserves — everything to make it the next global superpower except two things: 1) an emerging middle class generation comparable to our Baby Boomers, and; 2) a functional diaspora (look it up, I’ll wait).

[Vasu]

So does that mean this whole failure of governance at all levels in the country will eventually lessen? (wishful thinking)

[Abhijeet]

In general, corrupt economies have a high number of "gatekeepers" -- specially blessed people who can grant outsiders access to a scarce resource. It is in the interest of all incumbents that the situation remain this way -- for government officials, this is a healthy source of income; and for companies who have "got in", it lessens the chance of competitors coming up.

You can see this everywhere in India -- spectrum allocation, building permits, even taxi licenses. The government wants to dole out favours for everything. For some things that are naturally limited, like spectrum, gatekeepers are probably an unavoidable evil, although all people in such positions should be subject to close scrutiny to make sure that they are not simply rent-seekers.

It is in our interest, as (hopefully) people who have the good of India at heart, to clamour for these barriers to be torn down in all sectors where healthy competition can lead to far better outcomes than the decisions of government bureaucrats. Less gatekeepers in general does mean less corruption -- there are simply fewer places where special favours can be granted.

I find it puzzling that so many people even on this forum still don't seem to grasp this after two decades of liberalization.

[Theo_Fidel]

Abhijeet is absolutely correct.

As long as we are slicing/dicing this topic, what is a foreign company exactly.

Note that Jet Airways is mostly owned by PNRI types. Or even the Hinduja's are technically no longer Indian.
For that matter 20% of Singapore is of Indian origin, does that make Singapore an Indian state.

Who makes this decision. For what consideration.

IMHO opinion it is one thing to regulate the market to encourage local participation, it is another thing to try and keep people out artificially. What you are really trying to do is avoid the hard work of monitoring and tweaking the market constantly. A form of intellectual laziness. This is really what got us in the colonial era. The maharaja's found it easier to let the British handle the governance of administering trade while they got to skim off the top with out doing anything. Much easier than chasing the tax cheats and legally managing the playing field for all.

[RamaY]

^^^
What do you have to say about donating money to dakshinachitra ? The fact is they have helped causes that benefit our culture too, right?

Not my fight, but British gave India INC party, railways, english education, postal service, ICS etc... does it mean they do not become colonizers?

[svinayak]

^^^
What do you have to say about donating money to dakshinachitra ? The fact is they have helped causes that benefit our culture too, right?

Not my fight, but British gave India INC party, railways, english education, postal service, ICS etc... does it mean they do not become colonizers?

Good one but this is not a fight. But keeping the discussion going keeps the awareness going about foreign 'study' groups and people will be alert to manipulation.
There is certain ideology of the country which is derived from the civilization, history and ethnic identity. Colonization had created a western version of this ideology. That can still be used by any groups to further their agenda.

[Prem]

http://www.hindustantimes.com/480-000-s ... 28544.aspx
480,000 small and medium units shut shop in 5 years

The Indian economy apparently has a back problem: the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) sector, which employs 60 million-odd people, is struggling to stay upright. The fourth all-India census of MSMEs (2006-07) reveals that as many as 480,946 units closed down over a five-year period, while another 77,723 micro and small enterprises (MSEs) were declared sick by March-end. A Reserve Bank of India report says the same.
The situation is actually a slight improvement on the previous census. The number of units closed has come down from 887,427 in the third census (2000-01) to 480,946, but the number of sick units has gone up marginally. Tamil Nadu continues to have the highest number of closed units — 127,185 in the third census and 79,778 units now — while West Bengal leads in sick units, with 16,853. The importance of the sector can be gauged from the fact that it contributes 8% to the nation’s gross domestic product, 45% to the manufacturing sector and 40% to exports. There are 2.5 crore units in the sector.

[Singha]

isnt the data on closed units only part of the picture unless matched with data from new units that started up in this period. TN has a high number of industrial towns and SMEs ... some churn is inevitable...also the textile industry was hit hard by the global downturn.

[Rishirishi]

http://www.hindustantimes.com/480-000-s ... 28544.aspx
480,000 small and medium units shut shop in 5 years

The Indian economy apparently has a back problem: the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) sector, which employs 60 million-odd people, is struggling to stay upright. The fourth all-India census of MSMEs (2006-07) reveals that as many as 480,946 units closed down over a five-year period, while another 77,723 micro and small enterprises (MSEs) were declared sick by March-end. A Reserve Bank of India report says the same.
The situation is actually a slight improvement on the previous census. The number of units closed has come down from 887,427 in the third census (2000-01) to 480,946, but the number of sick units has gone up marginally. Tamil Nadu continues to have the highest number of closed units — 127,185 in the third census and 79,778 units now — while West Bengal leads in sick units, with 16,853. The importance of the sector can be gauged from the fact that it contributes 8% to the nation’s gross domestic product, 45% to the manufacturing sector and 40% to exports. There are 2.5 crore units in the sector.

It is actually a good sign. Larger and more efficient factories have taken over the production from small workshop type of enterprises. It is a natural effect as the economy matures. Unfortunately a lot of the work has gone to China. The Chinease manufacturars has acess to lower cost of energy and are not subject to harasment by the local governments.

[abhischekcc]

Consider this the effects of the war that MMS led government has waged against the SSIs. The reduction in the closure of MSMEs is only indicative of the that most of the closures have already happened. in the previous period(s).

PS
For the guys who think that MSMEs are inefficient - that is simply not true. They do employ more people than larger enterprises for producing the same amount of output - but they use capital far more efficiently - because it is mostly family equity.

Thus MSMEs fulfill a very needed role in Indian economy, which is both manpower surplus as well as capital deficient (although the second part has improved in the past decade).

[Theo_Fidel]

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/econom ... 00370.html

India's GDP to grow at 9.3% on avg till 2030: StanChart

India in the next 20 years will probably do in some respect what Japan did from 1945 upto the early 70s. Then Japan went from about 2-3% of global growth to about 10%.

We see India going from a couple of percent as it is now of global growth upto almost 10% over the next 20 year period. So a significant increase in its share.

I think the numbers are important but that is not the only thing you need to focus on. Who knows whether the numbers will be spot on? But I think the qualitative aspects namely the story factor is particularly important. But in terms of the number, the world economy next year probably will be USD 64.7 trillion economy. In cash terms, nominal terms allowing for inflation as well as growth, the world economy could have grown to over USD 300 trillion by 2030.

In real terms take in accounts of inflation and take in accounts of some appreciation of some of the major currencies, the world economy probably would have grown to somewhere between USD 125 trillion and USD 143 trillion by 2030. So in real terms the world economy would probably more than double over the next 20 years. India will share in that growth, will be an important contributor to that growth.

[SwamyG]

^^^
^^^
Everybody and his grandpa have identified their own strategic sectors that must not be opened...

Bombay Plan

[SwamyG]

But keeping the discussion going keeps the awareness going about foreign 'study' groups and people will be alert to manipulation.
There is certain ideology of the country which is derived from the civilization, history and ethnic identity. Colonization had created a western version of this ideology. That can still be used by any groups to further their agenda.

http://www.dakshinachitra.net/scripts/aboutus.asp

[Prem]

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/econom ... 00370.html

India's GDP to grow at 9.3% on avg till 2030: StanChart

India in the next 20 years will probably do in some respect what Japan did from 1945 upto the early 70s. Then Japan went from about 2-3% of global growth to about 10%.
I think the numbers are important but that is not the only thing you need to focus on. Who knows whether the numbers will be spot on?

In view of past decade or so, will the nominal economy quadruple every 10years?

[Pranay]

http://www.economist.com/node/17493348? ... fastestlap

No other pair of countries invite such frequent comparison yet share so little in common. China is bigger, stronger, richer and better organised than India, the only other country with over a billion people. And yet Indians, it is fair to say, enjoy the comparisons with their northern neighbour more than the Chinese do. It was an Indian who coined the word Chindia. India relishes being in the same league as China, even if it loses most of the games.

In 2011, however, India may win a round. According to some projections, its economy may grow as fast as China’s. It may even grow a little faster.

By the conventions of Indian national accounting, next year begins on April 1st and ends on March 31st 2012. Over that period, the World Bank expects India’s economy to grow by 8.7%, slightly faster than the 8.5% growth it has forecast for China over the calendar year. That is hardly the consensus view. But it is not an isolated one either. CLSA, an investment bank based in Hong Kong, also thinks India’s growth will pip China’s. Standard Chartered bank reckons the two economies will both grow at 8.5%.

India still has massive catching up to do in infrastructure (see article). It is not yet clear, with due respect to Indian nationalists, whether India will become the world’s fastest-growing big economy in 2011. But one thing is certain. If it does so, it will have China’s leaders to thank more than its own.

[Pranay]

http://www.economist.com/node/17493351

It took biologists until 2010 to prove that Asian elephants can run: they do so with the front legs; the hind ones merely walk quickly to keep up. In 2011 economists may conclude something similar about India’s elephantine economy. Its celebrated parts (some services, telecoms, outsourcing, technology) trot along nicely enough, energetically pulling the whole body forwards; but at the back (heavy industry, agriculture, textiles) too much merely lumbers. Sorting out this hybrid gait is the pressing economic need for India in the coming year and beyond.

More old-fashioned bits of the economy are especially hampered by India’s wretched, and long-neglected, roads, railways, ports, energy supply and other infrastructure. The prime minister, Manmohan Singh, frequently laments these as an embarrassment to a country that aspires to be a fast-moving giant. Well he might. Better infrastructure could perhaps boost the economy by a couple more percentage points—delivering long-dreamed-of double-digit annual growth and millions more jobs. It could even let India out-trumpet its great competitor, China.

Still, more money, bright minds and resources than ever will be dedicated to fixing infrastructure in 2011. Officially, 9% of GDP should be invested in it (a typical rate for India’s roaring rival, China), with $500 billion supposedly earmarked for it in the five years to 2012—and in the following five years, to 2017, a whopping $1 trillion. One prediction sees 46% of annual public spending going on infrastructure in the coming years. But watch as such grandiose budgets crumble like badly mixed concrete. Officials already admit that less than half the money now set aside for ports will really be spent by 2012, and other sectors will turn out little better.

The limits are more than just money. India may churn out 170,000 new engineers each year, but it still lacks the right sort of skilled labour: bright things dream of riches from megabytes, not megastructures. Cumbersome politics and local democracy, the sort of thing that Chinese planners can more easily steamroller through, slow the big projects. Pervasive corruption, as seen in preparations for the Commonwealth games, leads to diverted funds and shoddy structures.

The result will be far too little progress. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a sister company to The Economist, put India a pitiful 75th of 82 countries in its most recent global ranking of economies by infrastructure, assessing everything from broadband use to road density to electricity production. India not only lags behind the other BRICs (Brazil, Russia, China) but is also well behind smaller, emerging hopefuls such as Africa’s own aspiring elephant, South Africa. As for the coming years, the EIU predicts only a tiny improvement for India—to 73rd—by 2014. India could yet prove the sceptics wrong, but the elephant must get its skates on.

[ArmenT]

Senior bankers arrested in India 'scam' probe

Police in the Indian city of Mumbai say that they have arrested eight people, including senior executives of top state banks, over a suspected scam.

They say that the alleged fraud involved bribes paid to secure large corporate loans.

Senior figures from the Bank of India, the Central Bank of India and the Punjab National Bank were arrested.

The Bombay stock exchange recorded significant losses after the arrests were made public

[Ardeshir]

Gents, would any of you be aware of an Indian equivalent of the SEC's EDGAR Database? I can't seem to find any such link of SEBI's website.

[abhischekcc]

Check this out:

http://www.corpfiling.co.in/sast/sast.aspx

[Ardeshir]

Thanks Abhishekcc. Not quite an EDGAR equivalent, but atleast it's a good start.

[shyamd]

Senior bankers arrested in India 'scam' probe

Hopefully these arrests are the beginning of a large series of arrests that will shake these companies. Not just public but also private co's. These scams are running in small towns too!! These arrests could lead to a massive overhaul of the business and could be much bigger.

[Airavat]

CIL to set up 20 new coal washeries:

Mr. Jaiswal said coal washing is being promoted by the government as a clean technology, as a number of studies have shown that washed coal has higher calorific value than unwashed coal, thereby resulting in improved power generation efficiencies. Furthermore, the lower ash content of washed coal results in lower emissions.

At present, CIL operates 17 coal washeries in the country, out of which 11 are coking coal washeries and six are non-coking coal washeries, with a total capacity of 39.40 MTPA. Coal India, which produced 431.5 MT of coal last year, accounts for over 85 per cent of domestic production of the dry fuel and is the primary supplier for Indian companies. At present, CIL sells its coal at rates almost 50 per cent cheaper than prevailing international prices, as most of its reserves have poor calorific value and high ash content.

[JE Menon]

What would be the optimal growth rate for the Indian economy?

I'm asking because there's this frequent clamour from the sidelines, and sometimes even from key players inside and outside, about taking growth into "the double digits"... What's so miraculous about the double digit? Is it necessarily good (optimal) for India at this point? And if so, which "double digit" exactly?

Maybe the thread leaders have already addressed this issue. If so pls point. I couldn't find it.

[wig]

the crony capitalism afflicting the indian economy, wherein the govt, acts in a manner that defies logic is criticsed by Sh Ratan Tata.

Severely criticising inconsistencies in government policies, Ratan Tata, chairman of $73-billion Tata Group, has said that unpredictability in government policy from the point of investors was increasing. He said: “Yes, I think so, I’ve always felt and said this openly that behind it is not government policy, what’s behind it is the vested interests.”

He added that his Group had been disadvantaged repeatedly because of rules that were vague or implemented funnily. The eligibility of capability criteria was also abused at the time of awarding contracts.

On the use of natural resources, including exports, he said: “We are going counter to many years (of former Prime Ministers) Nehru's and Gandhi's national criterion of being self-sufficient, where we have the capability to be self-sufficient, where today we can equal the best manufacturing facility anywhere in the world.” He also debunked reports that the Group had paid a money to former Jharkhand CM Madhu Koda for mining concessions.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2010/20101129/nation.htm#15

[Suraj]

Bloomberg survey estimates 8.2% GDP growth for the second quarter (July-Sept 2010):
Bonds Gain Most Since June as 8%-Plus Growth Reduces Deficit

India’s bonds are headed for the best month since May as a third consecutive quarter of economic growth above 8 percent allows the government to cut its budget deficit and provide subsidies to commodity producers.

The government will say tomorrow that gross domestic product rose 8.2 percent in the three months ended September, according to the median forecast of 30 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee sought parliament’s approval on Nov. 15 to pay fertilizer makers an extra 50 billion rupees ($1.09 billion) to cap prices after adding 140 billion rupees to oil subsidies in August.

The yield on the 10-year government bond has dropped 14 basis points this month to 7.97 percent, the only debt among the so-called BRIC nations to rally in the period. Wholesale-price inflation slowed to 8.58 percent in October from this year’s high of 11 percent in April. The government aims to reduce the budget deficit to 5.5 percent of GDP from 6.9 percent last year.

“They will meet the target given strong revenue collections,” Rohini Malkani, a Mumbai-based economist at Citigroup Inc., said in an interview on Nov. 23. “But the additional spending raises concerns.”

[Viv S]

Farm output surges, growth may touch 7% this year

India's sluggish agriculture sector — its biggest impediment to a high growth rate — is finally poised to take off. Farm growth won't just meet its target of 4% this year, it could even climb to never-seen levels, possibly 7%, government officials, planners and independent economists told HT. "We may see 6-7% growth, depending on how the rabi (winter) crops go," Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen said.

The main reason for this optimism is the outstanding kharif (summer) output, which alone delivered nearly 3% farm growth over last year, Sen added.

Agriculture secretary P.K. Basu too said a turnaround was in the offing.

This will mean more money in the hands of two-thirds of all Indians, who depend on farm income. Rural spending will rise, which will push up manufacturing and thereby, the economy.

Prone to seasonal swings and dependent on the monsoon, farm growth has been volatile in recent years. In 2009-10, the worst drought in three decades shrank farm growth to almost zero.

High farm growth won't quite alter the overall projected growth of 8.5% for this year, as agriculture's share in gross domestic product — the sum total of all income from all sectors — is barely 16%. "However, it will mean more robust contribution to the economy," finance secretary Ashok Chawla said.

What's driving farm growth? "Our agriculture seems to be finally responding to prices," NR Bhanumurthy, economist with state-owned National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPR), said. The NIPR's own forecast is 5.6% farm growth.

Periodic hikes in minimum support prices (MSP) have worked. Between 2004 and 2010, MSP — the assured price at which the government buys paddy and wheat — was raised by 78.6% and 75%, respectively.

Fast-changing consumption patterns have prompted more high-end crops to be grown and high food prices may have a role too, economists say. Cheaper farm loans — at 5% this year from 7% till 2009 — also helped.

Another reason is the "low base" effect: following last year's drought, growth was practically nil, so this year may shine in comparison. But the drought also meant farmers this year worked aggressively to make good their losses, Bhanumurthy said.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/Farm-outp ... 32094.aspx

[Theo_Fidel]

What would be the optimal growth rate for the Indian economy?

I'm asking because there's this frequent clamour from the sidelines, and sometimes even from key players inside and outside, about taking growth into "the double digits"... What's so miraculous about the double digit? Is it necessarily good (optimal) for India at this point? And if so, which "double digit" exactly?

Maybe the thread leaders have already addressed this issue. If so pls point. I couldn't find it.

JEM,

We discussed this several pages back. Take a look at Suraj's answer. Apparently the ICOR sets the speed limit. The faster you can grow for a decent ICOR the better off your economy. To hit double digits either the savings/investment rate increases or efficiency increases. That's what the policy guys should focus on. The growth rate is meaningless otherwise.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 00#p967383

[JE Menon]

Thanx TF

[Airavat]

Geological Survey of India finds huge coal reserves in Tripura:

GSI scientists, headed by Director (Tripura Centre), T Rajkumar, conducted surveys in the two districts and found huge reserves of anthracite coal, considered as black gold. Places where coals were found are Tulashikhar revenue block in West Tripura district, bordering Bangladesh and Dalucherra in Dhalai district. Since the tribals in the areas had been extracting coal and bitumen, a common binder in road construction, for a long time and selling them to local brick kilns, the sources said, there was a possibility of finding more coal reserves in the two districts.

[Suraj]

Ok, the big news: Q2 GDP growth data is out, and is 8.9% . Further, Q1 GDP growth was revised upwards to 8.9% as well:
Indian economy grows faster than expected 8.9% in July-Sept 2010

India’s economic growth exceeded 8 percent for the third straight quarter, evidence of a strengthening in domestic demand that’s stoked inflation by placing strains on the nation’s transport and power systems.

Gross domestic product rose 8.9 percent in the three months through September from a year earlier, matching the revised pace of growth in the previous quarter, the Central Statistical Organisation said in a statement in New Delhi today. That was above the 8.2 percent median estimate of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Improved infrastructure will prove critical to sustaining India’s expansion rate, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said this month as inflation runs almost double what the government regards as “ideal.” The Reserve Bank of India may need to resume raising interest rates in the coming months after lifting borrowing costs six times this year.

Q2 GDP growth at 8.9%

Driven by good performance of agriculture and manufacturing, the Indian economy grew by 8.9 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal, up from 8.7 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago.

The growth rate for the first quarter was revised upwards to 8.9 per cent from 8.8 per cent.

This took the overall economic expansion during the first half (April-September) to 8.9 per cent, up from 7.5 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago.

According to the data released by the government today, farm sector during the second quarter recorded a growth rate of 4.4 per cent, up from 0.9 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago.

The manufacturing sector during the same period recorded a growth rate of 9.8 per cent as compared to 8.4 per cent during the same period last year.

The growth rate in the second quarter exceed economist expectation of up to 8.6 per cent for the July-September quarter.

Although the government expects the growth to top 8.5 per cent in the current fiscal, it may exceed the estimates if the present trend continues.

Q3 GDP growth may exceed 10%.

[Suraj]

October core sector output rebounds to 7%

Cheering up the economy further, the core infrastructure industries grew by 7 per cent in October against 3.9 per cent in the same month last year, helped by robust performance of cement and crude oil sectors.

The October data for six industries -- crude oil, petroleum refinery products, coal, electricity, cement and finished steel -- reflected a bounce back from September when growth in these sectors had plunged to 2.7 per cent against 4.3 per cent growth in corresponding period in 2009-10.

Core Infrastructure industries that have a weight of 26.7 per cent in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), is expected to show a positive impact on the October IIP, likely to be released next month.

Revival in the core industries comes on top of 8.9 per cent growth in the country's Gross Domestic Product for the first half of the current fiscal.

Expansion of the economy, helped by impressive performance by the industries, including the infrastructure sector, is expected to give a boost to investment climate, HSBC Group Country Head Naina Lal Kidwai said. "We will see more investments by industry next year because in lots of companies capacity utilisation is 90 per cent plus," she said.

However, amid the overall good performance of core infrastructure activity, coal and petroleum refinery output remained areas of concern. While petroleum refinery products showed a deceleration of 4.8 per cent, coal could barely grow by 0.8 per cent in October.

Cement with 16.8 per cent and crude oil with 13.7 per cent growth emerged as the top infrastructure performers in October.

The April-October cumulative performance remained unchanged at 4.5 per cent from the previous year.

Rs.15000cr ($3.6 billion) in road projects to be awarded by March 2011

"We will be awarding five mega road projects in the next 3-4 months," Transport and Highways Minister Kamal Nath said here. The estimated cost of each project is about Rs 3,000 crore.

"They (five projects) are about Rs 15,000 crore," Nath added. He however, did not provide any further details on the projects.

National Highways Authority of India (NHAI), the entity engaged in the construction of these highways has invited bids for the 570-km project from Kishangarh near Jaipur to Ahmedabad via Udaipur. It would be the country's first mega road project.

Last year, Nath had announced that NHAI would invite bids for nine mega road projects.

The government targets to construct 35,000 km of highways in five years under the National Highways Development Programme (NHDP).

This endeavour would require an estimated investment of about $60 billion (around 2.75 lakh crore), of which $40 billion (Rs 1.83 lakh crore) is expected to come from the private sector.

[Victor]

Barry Bosworth of Brookings' on Bloomberg TV--perspective on MMS' 8.9% growth announcement:

1. India can sustain this rate for years because it is internally generated and fed, not dependent on external investment or export like China. Doesn't see 10% anytime soon.

2. India is less susceptible to worldwide financial & economic shocks because of the above and growth is expected to remain stable.

3. India's growth is built on and limited to the skilled labor population and is bypassing rural areas and unskilled labor, deepening the wealth disparity. While this is expected in developing economies, China's growth is based on unskilled labor and spread out to more of the population.

4. We may run out of skilled labor soon unless there is dramatic change in the education system.

5. Surge in manufacturing growth over last 2 years is a huge positive. This may spread the growth to the unskilled labor if it continues as is expected.

[Theo_Fidel]

Look at that cement number. In India most construction is RCC so construction is going gang busters!

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/201 ... 830400.htm

Core industries' output zooms 7% in Oct

[Theo_Fidel]

3. India's growth is built on and limited to the skilled labor population and is bypassing rural areas and unskilled labor, deepening the wealth disparity. While this is expected in developing economies, China's growth is based on unskilled labor and spread out to more of the population.

4. We may run out of skilled labor soon unless there is dramatic change in the education system.

For once a media type who actually seems to know what he is talking about.

There is a nuance here, the shortage he is talking about is actually the english speaking, multi-national working types. Esp. ones with experience.

Not the run of the mill B-Tech or welder on the street. 5 years ago there was an extreme shortage of skilled welders in Chennai with 5-10 years experience. While there is still a shortage, the 'on the job' type training is working wonders IMO. The availability increase is quite remarkable and has been very organic.

My dad says that 5 years ago when he advertised for welders he would get about 500 applications with just 5-10 with the necessary qualifications and skills. Now he only gets 200 applications but at least 50 have all the skills/experiance he needs, much of it earned over the past 5 years. As our economy keeps building the skill levels of people is going up quite quickly.

[Suraj]

Regarding core sector data, the refined petroleum products growth is negative partly due to the shutdown of Reliance Jamnagar plant, which underwent routine maintenance in Sept-Oct. That blip should disappear in November and December.

[svinayak]

Not the run of the mill B-Tech or welder on the street. 5 years ago there was an extreme shortage of skilled welders in Chennai with 5-10 years experience. While there is still a shortage, the 'on the job' type training is working wonders IMO. The availability increase is quite remarkable and has been very organic.

My dad says that 5 years ago when he advertised for welders he would get about 500 applications with just 5-10 with the necessary qualifications and skills. Now he only gets 200 applications but at least 50 have all the skills/experiance he needs, much of it earned over the past 5 years. As our economy keeps building the skill levels of people is going up quite quickly.

This is good to know. I am involved in training of Project managers for all sectors. I am trying to find ways to replicate rapidly across many regions. Replication is a difficult

[Nihat]

It's still insane that Agriculture accounts for 17% of GDP and +50% of work force. Dependence on monsoon in this day and age is very surprising for the worlds 2nd fastest growing economy. Ideally it should hover around 5% of GDP, hopefully that'll happen within the next decade.

[Prem]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-2 ... r-bet.html
Microsoft's Ballmer Says China Piracy Makes India a Better Bet

Microsoft Corp. is less optimistic about China as a market than India or Indonesia because of the country’s lack of progress in stamping out software piracy, Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer said.
“India is not perfect but the intellectual property protection in India is far, far better than it would be in China,” the head of the world’s largest software maker said in an interview in Hanoi, Vietnam, yesterday. “China is a less interesting market to us than India, than Indonesia.”
Ballmer’s concerns underscore growing dismay among U.S. companies toward operating in the world’s third-largest economy. Google Inc. in March moved its Chinese service out of the mainland to avoid censorship rules, and the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing said last month its members face an increasingly difficult regulatory environment. China has implemented more than 1,000 measures related to the protection of intellectual property and the government will continue such efforts, said Chen Rongkai, a media officer at the nation’s Ministry of Commerce in Beijing. “China’s effort at strengthening protection of intellectual property is universally

[Ambar]

It's still insane that Agriculture accounts for 17% of GDP and +50% of work force. Dependence on monsoon in this day and age is very surprising for the worlds 2nd fastest growing economy. Ideally it should hover around 5% of GDP, hopefully that'll happen within the next decade.

Our farmers have to depend on monsoon thanks to our own stupidity. We have methodically destroyed natural water bodies making the once fertile soil barren. Ponds have been dried for construction, lakes destroyed and rivers that no longer have the gust to quench thirst of multiple states deeming agricultural irrigation useless.

The above reasons have proved to be catalysts in more farmers embracing GM seeds that is now playing havoc on both producers and consumers. It baffles me how apathetic our general populace is towards vanishing food security of our country.Regions that were once food baskets are now dotted with ugly concrete blocks. If we think food inflation is bad now, wait for the next 10 yrs when we'll have to fight with the Chinese for both oil and food.