India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Part 2

[SaiK]

NRao, read shiv's lips and slip into retirement. After 10 years, we would still be saying.. God... they should have gone with Rafale or Eurofighter.

[Rakesh]

NRao: Col Shukla has been peddling the F-35 for quite a while. So it is but natural that every opportunity there is, he will always put down the two Eurocanards. The F-35 is way overpriced and will not be ready in the timeframe that the Vayu Sena needs it. If he thinks the MMRCA deal is going to be scrapped because of exorbitant prices, then wait till the Min of Finance gets the bill for 126 F-35s....the babus will have an asthma attack!

Pay no heed to whatever he says. Katrina or Sonakshi are coming...whether you like it or not.

[chackojoseph]

I was referring to chackojoseph's statement: 'So $ 65 mil for non stealth version. Stealth would add up to 100 mil extra.'

$65 million does get you a stealthy aircraft - the overall cost is indeed higher but we are not required to pay extra for stealth. Why are we so hostile and dismissive of American offers? What would change this?

Even I am trying to figure out what 65 Mil $ worth F-35 gets us. But, if you assert that 65 mil $ gets a stealth fighter, can you please explain what comes in 65 mil $? Unless we buy Azarakhsh / Shafaq ....

[SaiK]

I would put $65M or more for LCA Mk3, and make it a platform for a twin engine, stealth plane body reshape, and higher thrust kaveri, as an LCA-ex (la tank-ex) before we get to AMCA. every penny is worth it on LCA++

[Singha]

I believe a well upholstered F-16-block60 with the trimmings comes in at around $80 mil range?

if that be true, the chances of getting a JSF for $65 mil are nonexistent.

[johnny_m]

That is because F 16 Block 60 was not/is not going to be as mass produced as the F 35. Suppose if MRCA & F 35 are both 100 million and available at the same time frame, even then the F 35 has an advantage as its a generation ahead.

[Will]

So, this benchmark business was triggered by Madame Hillary?

There goes the MMRCA deal. Expect the deal to be cancelled due to this "benchmark" business. Then the GOI will go the FMS route citing that the IAF can wait no longer for new aircraft and buy the JSF . Mannn what Chanakian minds politicians have to put a spoke into even the most clean (at least in perception) deals

[koti]

That is because F 16 Block 60 was not/is not going to be as mass produced as the F 35. Suppose if MRCA & F 35 are both 100 million and available at the same time frame, even then the F 35 has an advantage as its a generation ahead.

Assuming you are correct my friend, why aren't the remaining partners of JSF getting the AC at the quoted price?
Again, what makes you think that the Indian orders will be the first delivered?

What amount of learning curve will be added to the Indian scientific community?
What is the fate of the FGFA and AMCA that are expected to be joining by 2018,2022 timefrrame?
And the very important question of closed systems, how do you think it will be adderssed?

[pragnya]

he pointed out that Dassault’s associate company Thales had already developed and validated the RBE2 AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar and “it would be on board the aircraft ordered by India well in time.”

Rafale will come with full ToT

[sohels]

"condescension"? - that is exactly what I am NOT doing.

Ok, then I must apologize!

Hmm.. Does it mean that the Aussies paid $1bn for the 14 planes (~$71 mn each) and $2.2bn for the training and support infrastructure? What is the break-up do we know?
...
Their strategic ally Aussies has paid the money and ordered 100 aircraft

No, and I don't think its very useful to speculate on the breakdown, without further information. And nope, just they've paid for just 14.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-26/s ... rs/2811034

The cost of each aircraft in the US has ballooned from $US69 million each to $US103 million and the project has been dogged by ongoing design and development flaws.

I believe a well upholstered F-16-block60 with the trimmings comes in at around $80 mil range?

if that be true, the chances of getting a JSF for $65 mil are nonexistent.

Yes, there have been cost increases, but the only thing relevant is the price that is offered to us (we need further clarification on this - just how much do we pay and when do we get them).

What LM is trying to do here is to take a back door entry to 'somehow' steal the show without doing the hard-paces, and circumventing the MMRCA process. This is loud and clear. As someone suggested before, why do they not bring F-35 to India and ask IAF to try it out?

I agree, they really should let us try it out. They won't steal anything if we don't allow them to. We should however see this as an opportunity and evaluate it on its merit, and not be reflexively skeptical.

Besides, I don't think its a stretch to imagine that the US offers an attractive price to seal a huge deal, as well as a strategic relationship that it considers vital.

Huh? Similar size deals on Transport Aircrafts and Poseidons- how much did the price reduce? Do you call it 'attractive' for this 'vital' relationship? The only thing that is vital in this relationship is money and their strategic interest.

Money is at the heart of every major defense deal and they're certainly not doing us any favors. What I'm trying to point out is that if they want (a) another shot at a lost opportunity for a major arms sale and (b) to create a powerful counterbalance to China (which in itself is in the US interest, even if we remain strategically independent - as we should) and (c) create an opportunity for enhanced interoperability if both sides desire it in a contingency of mutual concern (the implosion of Bakistan or major Chinese aggression), then it would be in their interest to offer an attractive price. We don't know just what this price is yet, but I think its wrong to just shut them out. Yes, the cismoa, eula etc are major concerns but behind them are some legitimate US concerns - that their tech should not get passed on to adversaries, that we should be able to operate together effectively if we so desire, etc. I think it should still be possible to negotiate terms where some of their concerns are addressed, while we retain a high degree of operational autonomy. They might not be used to dealing with their allies in this way, but if they really want this contract, and it looks like they do - then we should use this to our fullest advantage.

Also, in the interest of fairness:
F-22 Pilots Found With Anti-Freeze, Propane in Bloodstream, Fleet Grounded

“There is a lot of nasty stuff getting pumped into the pilots’ bloodstream through what they’re breathing from that OBOGS [On-Board Oxygen Generation System]. That’s fact,” one former F-22 pilot tells Dave Majumdar of the Air Force Times. “How bad it is, what type it is, exactly how much of it, how long -- all these things have not been answered.”

I hope they're not using the same OBOGS on the F-35!

[Victor]

Suppose if MRCA & F 35 are both 100 million and available at the same time frame, even then the F 35 has an advantage as its a generation ahead.

By the time we get our 126 Eurocanards in 2023, over 3,000 F-35s will have been delivered to the US and allies. Figure out the cost angle from this. F-35 is going to be the "jeep" fighter and costs will plummet as soon as it goes on stream. Rafale and Typhoon don't have a chance against it, except with us Indians. Which is why the Euros will milk us for everything we have.

[Singha]

I am extremely skeptical of the projected 3000 number by 2023. assuming it enters IOC production in 2015, to produce 3000 in 8 years needs a annual production rate of 375 (!) even at height of cold war , I think the F-16 early models were being churned out @ 20 / per month only. no such unlimited funding exists today to support such production rate or inventory...not in US and definitely not among the pack of allies.

imo mass production will likely bring the cost to a "normal" range of around $120-150mil + addl for weapons & service pkg. many of the existing externally carried weapons of american/eu vintage will not work - you need 250lb SDBs, special "clipped fin" versions of the amraam, stealthy external weapon pods etc etc. so the weapons changes will be needed.

[geeth]

By the time we get our 126 Eurocanards in 2023, over 3,000 F-35s will have been delivered to the US and allies. Figure out the cost angle from this. F-35 is going to be the "jeep" fighter and costs will plummet as soon as it goes on stream. Rafale and Typhoon don't have a chance against it, except with us Indians. Which is why the Euros will milk us for everything we have.

That is what everybody 'hope' would happen...Now, tell me how much time it would take to start the process again and finalise the tender? By then won't the would again be 'a decade old' and new pricing will have to be worked out again? what is the guarantee the price is going to plummet? want to believe it, please do. But that is far from reality, IMO.

Even if costs an arm and a leg, buy the Rafale/Eurofighter and finish with it. Take max ToT with it. Yankees won't even supply the spares properly, leave alone ToT.

[sohels]

imo mass production will likely bring the cost to a "normal" range of around $120-150mil + addl for weapons & service pkg. many of the existing externally carried weapons of american/eu vintage will not work - you need 250lb SDBs, special "clipped fin" versions of the amraam, stealthy external weapon pods etc etc. so the weapons changes will be needed.

If you factor in development costs, then per unit costs will be high. But what about marginal cost - the cost of manufacturing one additional F-35, when all development is over and the production is on full swing? This marginal cost is likely to be lower, which permits the US to offer aggressive prices.

Also, I wonder if the extremely expensive Mirage upgrade deal will influence benchmarking in the Eurocanards' favor?

Benchmarking is the crucial process of estimating the fair price for any purchase, and is completed before the MoD opens the price bids for any tender. This is done by an MoD committee which scrutinises similar tenders worldwide, especially recent sales, to arrive at a comparable --- or as the name suggests, a benchmark --- price.

Could this raise the benchmark significantly? There certainly is no urgency to get the upgrade completed: Livefist: IAF Mirage Upgrade To Take 10 Years

[Victor]

I am extremely skeptical of the projected 3000 number by 2023.

It's healthy to be skeptical with these things but IMO the skepticism is better placed against the Euros who don't have the money or even the need for developing these planes. For them it's just "jobs" and we are picking up the tab. Unkil is different. He has both the money and the reason to stay a generation or two ahead.

[kelesis]

It's healthy to be skeptical with these things but IMO the skepticism is better placed against the Euros who don't have the money or even the need for developing these planes. For them it's just "jobs" and we are picking up the tab. Unkil is different. He has both the money and the reason to stay a generation or two ahead.

It's not entirely true, European Union is by far the world's most powerfull economy. Money and technologies are not a problem, the issue is the political will. The crisis has forced the Euro Zone to adopt a more federal system and UK decided to move toward France in a military and strategic relationship (don't forget the brits are not happy at all with JSF and EF). In the 10 years to come the EU have the possibility to rise its military spending strongly while the US can only decrease. Yesterday we heard about a possible merger between DCNS and ThyssenKrupp, that's just an example of what is coming next. I have no doubt a european leadership in fighter industry is possible within 10 or 20 years. The political decisions that will be taken in the next 2 or 3 years will be very important.

[Singha]

not sure of european spending, but US defence expenditure has nowhere to go but down...

[sohels]

In the 10 years to come the EU have the possibility to rise its military spending strongly while the US can only decrease. Yesterday we heard about a possible merger between DCNS and ThyssenKrupp, that's just an example of what is coming next. I have no doubt a european leadership in fighter industry is possible within 10 or 20 years. The political decisions that will be taken in the next 2 or 3 years will be very important.

Not so sure about the rise in European defense spending when several nations have a very heavy debt burden, and no prominent threat on the horizon. Political decisions will indeed be important, for example arms sales to China, for which there already is some advocacy.

not sure of european spending, but US defence expenditure has nowhere to go but down...

And still remain far more than any other single country for a long time to come.

[Lalmohan]

not sure of european spending, but US defence expenditure has nowhere to go but down...

also down down, deeper down...

[shiv]

Yes, the cismoa, eula etc are major concerns but behind them are some legitimate US concerns - that their tech should not get passed on to adversaries, that we should be able to operate together effectively if we so desire, etc. I think it should still be possible to negotiate terms where some of their concerns are addressed, while we retain a high degree of operational autonomy.

So we become so soo sympathetic about "legitimate US concerns". Could you point to examples where the US has been similarly sympathetic to legitimate Indian concerns?

chai biskoot onlee

[Philip]

IF a JSF conventional or whatever is available as Hillary said for just $65 million a piece,and delivered as offered to India by 2016,there would be droves of buyers from client states and allies.But what is actually happening? These worthies are abandoning the JSF and heading in the opposite direction,even considering (traitors!),European aircraft like the Rafale and EF! Hilary's words should be taken with 35t of salt,or whatever the JSF weighs.

These words are the "cheapest",(pun intended) shot at sabotaging the MMRCA deal for the IAF and with the current woes that Uncle Sam's loyal SI is facing, the JSF offer to India is going to crash land with a thud that will echo loudly in the HQ of LM!

[sohels]

So we become so soo sympathetic about "legitimate US concerns". Could you point to examples where the US has been similarly sympathetic to legitimate Indian concerns?

By recognizing and addressing these concerns without signing crippling agreements, we could retain operational autonomy and still get the best weapons. Its in our interest to do so?

[Austin]

By recognizing and addressing these concerns without signing crippling agreements, we could retain operational autonomy and still get the best weapons. Its in our interest to do so?

Well why dont they recognize and address our concern and give us operational autonomy as others do , after all the Europeans would be as concerned about technology proliferation as US does but dont bind us to specific or binding agreements ? Fair no ?

After all they gave us P-8I ,C-130 ,C-17 without forcing us sign any specific agreements.

[prabir]

All we have to wait for some time. US will finally come around and give us what we want. They need someone in Asia as a hedge against China. All we need is the political will to negotiate firmly

[SaiK]

well... they could go with Russia, and they are already partnering with them for ISS and other specialty science projects. Why India be the scape goat war field against china?

I have a different proposal then.. we shall arrange men in uniform, place to stay, good food, training area, and a nice base all men from desh from CnC to phyrring missiles. All unkill has to do is lease the service, and train our men, and provide the required weapon systems against china [la all aspect outsourcing - AoA]. .. you get the drift...

Countering China!? my foot. they have no money to save themselves from debt crisis.

[prabir]

Please do not underestimate the American "will" to come out of the debt crisis. Those holding US debt notes will be bigger fool, not Americans, should its economy melt.

[Austin]

Please do not underestimate the American "will" to come out of the debt crisis. Those holding US debt notes will be bigger fool, not Americans, should its economy melt.

Will really does not matter here but good economics does , the first thing they should do is to stop living beyond their means , US spends 1 trillion dollar more every year then it earns.

US economy wont melt down immediately but will loose its pre-eminence while other countries with good and growing economy like China , India , Russia ,Europe ,Canada , Australia will replace the dollar in the medium and long run.

[chackojoseph]

So we become so soo sympathetic about "legitimate US concerns". Could you point to examples where the US has been similarly sympathetic to legitimate Indian concerns?

By recognizing and addressing these concerns without signing crippling agreements, we could retain operational autonomy and still get the best weapons. Its in our interest to do so?

Isn't it being already done where it suits us?

[yantra]

Money is at the heart of every major defense deal and they're certainly not doing us any favors. What I'm trying to point out is that if they want (a) another shot at a lost opportunity for a major arms sale and (b) to create a powerful counterbalance to China (which in itself is in the US interest, even if we remain strategically independent - as we should) and (c) create an opportunity for enhanced interoperability if both sides desire it in a contingency of mutual concern (the implosion of Bakistan or major Chinese aggression), then it would be in their interest to offer an attractive price. We don't know just what this price is yet, but I think its wrong to just shut them out. Yes, the cismoa, eula etc are major concerns but behind them are some legitimate US concerns - that their tech should not get passed on to adversaries, that we should be able to operate together effectively if we so desire, etc. I think it should still be possible to negotiate terms where some of their concerns are addressed, while we retain a high degree of operational autonomy. They might not be used to dealing with their allies in this way, but if they really want this contract, and it looks like they do - then we should use this to our fullest advantage.

Also, in the interest of fairness:
F-22 Pilots Found With Anti-Freeze, Propane in Bloodstream, Fleet Grounded

I do not have an objection to trying anything - as long as they play fair and we know what we are (mostly) getting and at what price. The Euros came through the bidding route, offering the best they have, offering full ToT, partnership in development, etc. Brought their planes, demonstrated them and finished at the top.

US offered 2 planes who lost out in the race. Now they are trying to sell F-35 (after they lost out) - which is expensive, will be 2018 by the time we get the first one, no ToT, we will have to sign CISMOA (blah, blah and blah), we are not partners, and all this at a price we are not sure of. At best, can be the same as the Euros. And, they may refuse to sell us spare parts at the drop of a hat!

Why do you want to consider US for MMRCA now?Why do we need this and what advantages does it give India? No dhoti-shivers taking the name of China and Pak pls! We will have FGFA (our version of F-35) in 2018 and AMCA soon after - why F-35 as MMRCA?

[yantra]

All we have to wait for some time. US will finally come around and give us what we want. They need someone in Asia as a hedge against China. All we need is the political will to negotiate firmly

Why this Dhoti-Shiver? They were not around in 1965/1971/1999 and we still pursued our interests. What is of prime strategic interest to us is the only thing we should be worried about.

[Victor]

Why India be the scape goat war field against china?

Because we could have our gate scoped, not unkil, as soon as the chinese feel they have the advantage. We don't have a choice, you can bet on it.

Remember, they want almost the entire northern border to be several hundred miles south along with their friends the pakis. They are waiting for the right moment and it is coming closer. The dhotis in Delhi have never moved this fast in decades. Why do you think this is?

Now the chinese stealth fighter has changed things drastically. No matter what we think, it will be flying with both the chinese and paki air forces in a decade. We BETTER have our rival fighter--PAKFA/FGFA whatever--ready by then. If it comes, we are relatively safe. If not, we are toast. In a situation like this, I don't really care where we get our stealth fighter but that we get it. Leave the p!ssing and moaning about unkil-is-a-b@sturd for the timepass section.

[yantra]

I don't really care where we get our stealth fighter but that we get it.

Get it, you will sure from Unkil, once you throw your $$$ - the debate is about whether we get to use it when we really need it.

If not, we are toast.

Hmm.. not so fast.. I do not believe so.

[shiv]

Now the chinese stealth fighter has changed things drastically. No matter what we think, it will be flying with both the chinese and paki air forces in a decade. We BETTER have our rival fighter--PAKFA/FGFA whatever--ready by then. If it comes, we are relatively safe. If not, we are toast. In a situation like this, I don't really care where we get our stealth fighter but that we get it. Leave the p!ssing and moaning about unkil-is-a-b@sturd for the timepass section.

Victorji - the counter to a sword is a shield, not a sword. The counter to a stealthy fighter is not another stealthy fighter. It is an ability to detect and shoot down their stealth fighter. This statement should not be misinterpreted as saying that we should not get a modern aircraft that features stealth. It only means that it will force China to invest in defences against stealth. It won't counter a Chinese stealth fighter.

As an aside - India can get 1000 stealth fighters if we want, but how will that help if Pakistan has 2000 nuclear armed surface to surface missiles each costing 1/10th of the stealth aircraft?

[manum]

Now the chinese stealth fighter has changed things drastically. No matter what we think, it will be flying with both the chinese and paki air forces in a decade. We BETTER have our rival fighter--PAKFA/FGFA whatever--ready by then. If it comes, we are relatively safe. If not, we are toast. In a situation like this, I don't really care where we get our stealth fighter but that we get it. Leave the p!ssing and moaning about unkil-is-a-b@sturd for the timepass section.

What crap...this is a classic example of Dhoti Shiver...actually whole statement can be hung as a dhoti banner of sarcasm...

[Victor]

- the debate is about whether we get to use it when we really need it.

Luckily the armed forces is not part of this debate and do not believe for a second that they can't use the C-17, C-130, P8i, ships, light howitzers etc that we are buying and planning to add to. Even the Apache is on the cards. Things are changing daily at lightning speed. We need to adjust or become irrelevant.

[Victor]

What crap...this is a classic example of Dhoti Shiver...actually whole statement can be hung as a dhoti banner of sarcasm...

Good to know that GoI dhoti-shivered enough for them to jump all over the T-50 with more agility than I have seen in 70 yr olds before. But besides blowing this off casually as "crap", do you have any concrete proposals to un-shiver the dhoti? If not, your pleasant delusions are what is crap.

[Victor]

..how will that help if Pakistan has 2000 nuclear armed surface to surface missiles each costing 1/10th of the stealth aircraft?

It won't, just like our Su-30mkis don't while paki jihadis slaughter our people in the streets with impunity. But we need to dissuade the chinese or pakis from thinking they can sneak attack an Indian target and get away with it because we can't tell where it come from. They need to know that it can happen to them too. Stealth is a game changer.

Of course if the pakis or chinese use nukes, we know what our response will be.

[manum]

What crap...this is a classic example of Dhoti Shiver...actually whole statement can be hung as a dhoti banner of sarcasm...

Good to know that GoI dhoti-shivered enough for them to jump all over the T-50 with more agility than I have seen in 70 yr olds before. But besides blowing this off casually as "crap", do you have any concrete proposals to un-shiver the dhoti? If not, your pleasant delusions are what is crap.

I can not find any simplistic reasoning to tell that above all you are saying is crap all along... but you are going to make anything a crisis at your own whim and start suggesting a unsustainable method...than really toiling for it, The money GOI spends is your own money.

See for such kind of suggestion, one can only suggest Metrogyl...its lot cheaper than a stealth fighter.

[Victor]

..start suggesting a unsustainable method..

What is this "unsustainable method"? Making or buying stealth aircraft is a MUST for us asap. If you don't think so, say why instead of blowing unintelligible hot air. Any street urchin can say "crap".

[sohels]

Well why dont they recognize and address our concern and give us operational autonomy as others do , after all the Europeans would be as concerned about technology proliferation as US does but dont bind us to specific or binding agreements ? Fair no ?

Yes, fair. And it seems to me that they're beginning to do precisely that. Several major think tanks spent considerable time and effort analyzing the rejection of the teens and both historic American unreliability and excessively constraining demands were often cited as reasons. There certainly is growing recognition of these problems, and I believe with some negotiation, can be redressed.

After all they gave us P-8I ,C-130 ,C-17 without forcing us sign any specific agreements.

Exactly! Just shows that it can be done. And we want more of them!

well... they could go with Russia, and they are already partnering with them for ISS and other specialty science projects. Why India be the scape goat war field against china?

They are partnering with everyone they can (Japan, South Korea, Australia etc) and even getting involved in regional disputes (South China Sea). Its pretty clear they don't want to give China a free hand in Asia. Although I'm not quite sure if we should join an overt anti-China alliance, I'll attempt to explain the 'India as lynchpin' rationale - no other country, including Russia, has the heft and long term economic potential to sustain the kind of military spending required to hedge against China. Having unresolved border issues, and an intense competition for natural resources (including energy supplies) are pluses. Democracy, and its characteristics (human rights, freedom of speech etc) are often cited as well and presented as natural affinities, but I think this is more for domestic US consumption.

The counter to a stealthy fighter is not another stealthy fighter. It is an ability to detect and shoot down their stealth fighter. This statement should not be misinterpreted as saying that we should not get a modern aircraft that features stealth. It only means that it will force China to invest in defences against stealth. It won't counter a Chinese stealth fighter.

Do you think a non-stealth fighter will fare better against a Chinese stealth fighter? I don't think so, especially when its possible that we'll be paying around the same amounts for both (and hence have a similar number of both). If it forces China to spend a considerable amount of money in defenses against stealth, well that can't be a bad thing for us?

Why do you want to consider US for MMRCA now?Why do we need this and what advantages does it give India? No dhoti-shivers taking the name of China and Pak pls! We will have FGFA (our version of F-35) in 2018 and AMCA soon after - why F-35 as MMRCA?

No, FGFA is not our version of the F-35. If all goes well (and I hope it does), it will be our version of the F-22 - an air superiority fighter designed primarily for a2a. The F-35 would actually make the perfect complement to the FGFA - a smaller, stealthy multirole aircraft which is very effective at ground strikes. The argument that having one stealth aircraft means we should not get another one just doesn't cut it - especially if the cost for a non-stealth 4th gen plane is similar, and whose developmental risks are also significant. As for delays, I think I read somewhere that we'll get the last (hugely expensive) Typhoon by 2023 (correct me if I'm wrong) - if F-35 deliveries to India start in 2018, with LM's greater capacity, it is possible that the last F-35 can come in before that (but we need further clarification and strong guarantees about the same).