2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 08 Feb 2020 20:16

like Muslims care about muslim issues or christians care about christian issues.

Maybe dilliwaalaa will become more enlightenment post elections if protests against secularism.. oops in democracy against something will not halt.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 08 Feb 2020 20:16

Manish_Sharma wrote:People mostly knew each other and biggest discussion was ELECTRIC Bill's, people were like "... my geezer on 24 hrs. Washing machine runs 4 hrs but got bill of only 160 Rs."

How is the above possible in Delhi? Serious question. How are people able to run geezer for extended periods of time and still get such low bills? How is Delhi Govt. able to provide subsidies like the above?

Here in BLR, I am trying to identify practices where lot of power is being consumed in order to cut down on bill costs. My geezer runs for max 1 hr, NO AC & fan onlee and I use LED lights etc. and I am still getting around 1000 INR.

Anyways, RundeeTV & others are salivating at the results of exit polls.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Feb 2020 20:21

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Feb 2020 20:32

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1226 ... 91777?s=20

Whatever the exit polls say, take it with a pinch of salt. A 10% drop in turnout is a big X factor in Delhi now. Maybe the lack of AAP volunteers could have played a role here

Hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.

Whatever the result, BJP's massive organizational effort in Delhi is definitely praiseworthy. It will unlock huge value at the booth-level organization in the long run.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 08 Feb 2020 20:40

Zynda wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:People mostly knew each other and biggest discussion was ELECTRIC Bill's, people were like "... my geezer on 24 hrs. Washing machine runs 4 hrs but got bill of only 160 Rs."
How is the above possible in Delhi? Serious question. How are people able to run geezer for extended periods of time and still get such low bills? How is Delhi Govt. able to provide subsidies like the above?

I don't know my own bill has been 6000+ Rs.
Some people were silent and many were celebrating.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 08 Feb 2020 21:01

Exit polls 53 pAAP and 16 BJP

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 08 Feb 2020 21:03

I see a lot of BIF ass holes and their PR like Coupta already interpreting the Delhi result as 'stunning rejection of polarization'. Give me a f!king break. But with Hindus having 'better' things to do than go out and vote, well, they deserve to be slaves of Mughals, and of course fight with each other. I feel among all the state losses, this particular loss, coming in the backdrop of BIF polarization around CAA, will be a body blow to BJP and demoralizing to the BJP/RSS cadres. The poor guys on the ground who tried to get the Hindu vote out will surely feel let down and dejected.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Feb 2020 21:18

CRamS wrote:I see a lot of BIF ass holes and their PR like Coupta already interpreting the Delhi result as 'stunning rejection of polarization'. Give me a f!king break. But with Hindus having 'better' things to do than go out and vote, well, they deserve to be slaves of Mughals, and of course fight with each other. I feel among all the state losses, this particular loss, coming in the backdrop of BIF polarization around CAA, will be a body blow to BJP and demoralizing to the BJP/RSS cadres. The poor guys on the ground who tried to get the Hindu vote out will surely feel let down and dejected.

Body blow to your understanding of Indian politics perhaps but not to the BJP .. at best a minor setback.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Feb 2020 21:38

https://twitter.com/RealHistoriPix/stat ... 87745?s=20

Delhi faced most burnt of lsIamic rule

On single day in 1739, Nader Shah massacred 30,000- 50,000 population

For 800 years, not a single new Temple was allowed to build, all ancient temples were razed

Yet, Delhi Hindus voting for man who mocked Lord Hanuman & Indian soldiers!

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 08 Feb 2020 21:42

Hindu consolidation is hardly a factor in Modi coming to power twice with such a strong mandate and won't be a factor in the Delhi results either.

BJP never had a credible CM face in Delhi to compete with Kejriwal and hence they're handing Aap the advantage again. They've made other strategic blunders in states such as Rajasthan as well, in sticking with Raje.

The tide will turn in these state elections provided BJP does not only depend on the Hindu agenda. Even for the average hindu voter, I feel even if they want to vote on religious lines, they cannot, as they have a subjugated mindset. The hindu factor needs to be hidden behind a development one. If it's out in the open, the natural hesitation of the majority voter will keep him at bay.

Time for Modi govt to revert to the highly successful formula of development with the background of Hindu consolidation.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 08 Feb 2020 21:46

pankajs wrote: Body blow to your understanding of Indian politics perhaps but not to the BJP .. at best a minor setback.

Rubbish. If the Delhi exit poll results hold, it shows that Hindus by and large were not swayed by the BIF antics which BJP tried its best to highlight. Of course, it doesn't require any political IQ, but for poor Hindus, crazy's freebies took precedence over BIF game-plan, and thats understandable to a large extent. But it seems to me that a lot of middle class Hindus for whom these freebies make no difference were 'busy' to go out and vote.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Feb 2020 21:48

CRamS wrote:
pankajs wrote: Body blow to your understanding of Indian politics perhaps but not to the BJP .. at best a minor setback.
Rubbish. If the Delhi exit poll results hold, it shows that Hindus by and large were not swayed by the BIF antics which BJP tried its best to highlight. Of course, it doesn't require any political IQ, but for poor Hindus, crazy's freebies took precedence over BIF game-plan, and thats understandable to a large extent. But it seems to me that a lot of middle class Hindus for whom these freebies make no difference were 'busy' to go out and vote.

Rubbish!

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 08 Feb 2020 21:51

Nihat wrote:
Time for Modi govt to revert to the highly successful formula of development with the background of Hindu consolidation.

I agree, it should be 30% development, 30% fight against corruption, 30% Hindu consolidation including nationalism. And 10% miscellaneous issues. And which one to highlight front and center depends on a given situation.

But in this case of Delhi elections, BJP was dead on target and they did their dharma to go all out to highlight and expose the machinations of BIF through shaheen bagh theatrics. But it may not have worked. Just happened to scan Mirror now, and seeing Burka bibi gloat makes me throw up.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Feb 2020 21:58

CRamS wrote:But it seems to me that a lot of middle class Hindus for whom these freebies make no difference were 'busy' to go out and vote.

As per CVoter exit poll which BIF quint is gleefully reporting, poor (freebies ?) and rich people (lutyens/macaulites/urban naxals/durbaris ?) voted for paap while BJP closing the gap among middle class of Delhi.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Feb 2020 22:19

https://twitter.com/prasannavishy/statu ... 1346627584

Delhi
2013 Assembly : BJP-33.3%, AAP-29.7%, Con-24.7%
2014 Lok Sabha : BJP-47%, AAP-33%, Con-15.2%
2015 Assembly : BJP-32.3%, AAP-54.5%,Con-9.7%
2016 MCD : BJP-37%, AAP-26%,Con-21%
2019 Lok Sabha : BJP -57%, AAP-18%, Con-22.46%
2020 Assembly(predicted): BJP-35%, AAP-56%, Con-5%

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Feb 2020 23:02

Per some on twitter, the exit poll was for voting up to 3:00 pm

By ~3:00 pm the voting % ~ 30%
By ~6:00 pm the voting % ~ 60%

Lets see how results pan out on 11th. Here is one ...

https://twitter.com/tehseenp/status/1226145726268207107

Tehseen Poonawalla Official @tehseenp

I am shocked! On @ABPNews with @RubikaLiyaquat the OFFICIAL @BJP4India spokesperson said till 3pm the #DelhiElection voting was 30% now post 3pm it has jumped to 60% this means BJP will win..this JUMP is BJP vote!

I repeat to the @AamAadmiParty volunteers don't rejoice be alert

Depending who voted early and who late and how the last 30% voted, the outcome could be different.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 08 Feb 2020 23:09

pankajs wrote: https://twitter.com/tehseenp/status/1226145726268207107
Tehseen Poonawalla Official @tehseenp

I am shocked! On @ABPNews with @RubikaLiyaquat the OFFICIAL @BJP4India spokesperson said till 3pm the #DelhiElection voting was 30% now post 3pm it has jumped to 60% this means BJP will win..this JUMP is BJP vote!

I repeat to the @AamAadmiParty volunteers don't rejoice be alert

Italian durbari worried that paap might lose

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Feb 2020 23:13

https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1226165024399380480

iMac_too @iMac_too

Ace pollster Gupta has now put a caveat; all exit polls (including his own) were till 4 pm & 15% more voting happened after that

My India Axis poll .. the reaction ...
https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1226160592009850881

ANI @ANI

Delhi: Chief Minister and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal is holding a meeting at his residence on the security of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia, Prashant Kishor, Sanjay Singh and Gopal Rai are present in the meeting. #DelhiElections2020

The trend established in the morning might persist or they might reverse.

BJP @ 4:00 pm ~ 35%
IFFF the remaining 15% go to BJP, that would take them up to 50% which would make BJP a winner!

Not to say that it will happen but the mathematical possibility exists of a more even contest. That is all.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 08 Feb 2020 23:16

Hearing that the dilli RSS did not help much because they got upset about the BJP bringing in "outsiders".

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Feb 2020 23:19

Till yeaterdin we were all told that dilli RSS was putting its best effort! Don;t go by stories like this. They change to suit opposition narrative.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 08 Feb 2020 23:31

One of the drawbacks of this autonomous administration for the IITs and IIMs is the ease with which the congis/commies/naxals ecosystem can turn them into JNU lite

with Director debashis chatterjee, the ubiquitous bengali academic makes an entrance.

Very soon this "liberal studies dept" will be full up to the brim with scruffy and unwashed "periyar" studies intellectuals all pitching fire, brimstone, and anti Hindu revolution.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 08 Feb 2020 23:34

Dilli BJP has been on weak wickets since the days of "Onion" elections. They could not wrest Delhi back once they lost it to Sheila Dixit like India never could wrest back Kandhar after losing it to Persians.
Blaming Hindus for any loss of BJP has become a fashion of late.
Unlike the political echo chamber we have become, Aam Aadmi has to pick between lesser of the two evils. The fight is not always between Modi and Italians, Sometimes It is between horribly run DMC by BJP and not so bad govt by Kejriwal.
Kejri played it smart and never made it him against Modi but it was between Kejri v/s non existent BJP CM face.

Is there any group in India which refuses to accept freebies including our politicians ?

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 08 Feb 2020 23:52

pankajs wrote:Rubbish!

You don't have to answer every long-winded post from members who have too much time on their hands.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 08 Feb 2020 23:54

chetak wrote:Hearing that the dilli RSS did not help much because they got upset about the BJP bringing in "outsiders".

on twitter people with ears n eyes on ground posting completely different

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 08 Feb 2020 23:59

KL Dubey wrote:
pankajs wrote:Rubbish!
You don't have to answer every long-winded post from members who have too much time on their hands.

Good advice. Your reaction as that of Pankaj's is a classic example of how those who end up on the losing side (in this case all of us who who want BJP to win and thwart BIF) start fighting among themselves.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 Feb 2020 00:02

This is how narrative is sought to be created, sometimes quoting imaginary people, some times imaginary conversations, sometimes quoting even dead people! BUT is rarely it is so blatantly false that it is caught.

Problem is the only former CM of Delhi from CON is DEAD. How did he ring her up?

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 09 Feb 2020 00:04

IndraD wrote:
chetak wrote:Hearing that the dilli RSS did not help much because they got upset about the BJP bringing in "outsiders".
on twitter people with ears n eyes on ground posting completely different

you are right

Dr Praveen Patil
@5Forty3
Hats off to over 1 lakh Swayam Sevaks of Delhi who have been so hyper active this election season unlike many elections in the past... They have come to realise the importance of the battles ahead.

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1225 ... 37952?s=20

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 Feb 2020 00:11

CRamS wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
You don't have to answer every long-winded post from members who have too much time on their hands.
Good advice. Your reaction as that of Pankaj's is a classic example of how those who end up on the losing side (in this case all of us who who want BJP to win and thwart BIF) start fighting among themselves.

You are the perfect example of "sky is falling" syndrome going over years! Just re-read the last 4 substantial posts of yours barring this one and you will see what I am talking about.

You just kept repeating "sky is falling" in 3 detailed post listing your fears and DIFFERENT people tried to explain it to you why the "sky was not falling" over Delhi results and YET you wrote a 4th post repeating the same, worded slightly differently!

You persistent negativity has to be countered. If you want, I will link/quote the 4 posts of yours and the responses to show what you were trying to do.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 09 Feb 2020 00:15

there is ignore button people

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 Feb 2020 00:20

https://twitter.com/Truth_Justice1/stat ... 9864122369

Joiedevivre @Truth_Justice1

Replying to @MakrandParanspe

Wasn't the family deity of Hedgewar Mussolini ?

Someone trying to troll Makrand Paranspe on his visit to RSS founders home.

https://twitter.com/MakrandParanspe/sta ... 2699779073

Makarand R Paranjape @MakrandParanspe

No, I guess Hedgewar stuck to Indian deities; it was his mentor, Dr Moonje, who visited Mussolini. But, then, so did Gandhiji. If you're to resort to guilt by association, then not just the Mahatma, but also Tagore would be guilty for he too met & praised "Il Duce."

Data point ..

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 Feb 2020 00:34

Don't know what source Baba Banarsi has to give such precise prediction. PP seems to be one of the internal poll guy for BJP for Delhi or so he seemed to indicate once. HIGHLY un-verified and un-verifiable.

https://twitter.com/bababanaras/status/ ... 5866902528

अर्ध-सन्यासी (Half Hermit) @bababanaras

Ground report submitted to Amit Shah & JP Nadda by ground assessors after completion of #DelhiElections2020

#TotalVoterTernout 61.71%

#BJP 31
#AAP 26
#Congress 01

Tough contest between AAP & BJP on 10 seats.

Tough triangular contest between AAP ,BJP & Congress on 2 seats.

If the numbers turned out to be correct and the "too close to call" split between BJP and AAP, BJP will just scrape past a simple majority with 36/70.

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 09 Feb 2020 03:32

But a lot of Delhites already feel Delhi is with Modi/Shah. The fact Modi is already in the Central govt weighs on mind of people. Shaheen Bagh type things can be handled by home ministry in the central govt.

I repeat people of Delhi already feel presence of Modi. During Lok Sabha elections they proved it second time. Even after the first Lok Sabha elections BJP lost with highest possible margin to AAP in Delhi. Still Delhi remained with Modi and idiots at that time also mentally made up whatever interpretation they wanted to.

BIF and opposition can comfort (or delude) themselves but the more they do Shaheen Bagh type nonsense Modi will be back in power in 2024. All these are simply facts. Don't loose heart in short term. Focus on economy and military build up.

At most appropriate moment take up UCC and get it passed.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 09 Feb 2020 03:56

Agree. Irrespective of the Delhi result, UCC shall be passed before BIF starts fresh dramas.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 09 Feb 2020 04:02

^^^^
Now that triple talaq / instant divorce has been outlawed, what aspect of UCC would Islamists find ‘unpalatable’? Speaking as a fundamentally secular person myself, I can’t think of anything more secular than a UCC. The sooner the better.

Added later. I can’t imagine anyone with an iota of common sense will wish to take issue with outlawing polygamy.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 09 Feb 2020 04:16

With respect sir you need to look at Islamic personal law issue more closely. The entire drama on CAA is to stop among other things the UCC.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 09 Feb 2020 04:58

^^^^
The CAA drama is to stop NRC, at least according to my understanding. I don’t think the Shaheen Bagh ladies are protesting for the “right” of their husbands to take up to 4 wives.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 09 Feb 2020 05:56

Sadly the BJP lost the Delhi plot. State elections always turn the voters mind to their own backyard and issues nearer to home that impinge upon their well-being. National issues like scorching Paki backsides are better left to national elections. The small number of hyper-ventilating,rabble-rousing BJP politicos,ministers,etc. trying to polarise the polity was a total disaster.They did great damage to the party's image. Shaheen Bagh was not seen by the voter as an anti- national protest.It was about the confusion over the CAA,NRC,etc. To say that those protesting were terrorists or would-be suicide bombers wasn't swallowed by the voter.Those who take extreme hardcore viewpoints will always support their party of choice.Die-hard Commies will always vote Commie,die-hard linguistic chauvinists like the Dravidian crowd will vote for the DMK/ AIADMK.In Maharashtra you have your " Marathi manoos".And so on. There is little point in trying to preach to the converted!

Fundamentally ,the vast majority of Indians want a better life and future for their families and children,not a future of conflict,civil strife and chaos. "Good Governance" was the mantra." More Governance and less Government" was the BJP's original electoral promise.What's happening is the exact opposite. The mandir issue has been v.amicably resolved by the Hon.Supreme Court.Kudos to the wisdom of the judges and patience of the opposing parties. The hard task now is to resurrect the economy,in dire straits, keping blinkers on. Unless the BJP makes the economy its priority and central mission of its second term,more electoral losses will occur in the future as states will prefer regional parties who are doing a better job of governance at the state level than the BJP at the centre. Kejriwal with his freebies especially for women won the election before voting began....unless the EVMs produce a massive turnaround on result day!

PS: As an analyst mentioned,Delhi is a massive migrant city with lakhs of Bengalis,Punjabis, Malayalees,Biharis, Madrasis,etc.,etc.In most of these states " back home", the BJP aren't in power. Tribal and linguistic loyalties are stronger than ideology especially when the "belt is tight". The Congress was dumped because even Cong. voters voted for the AAP ( better placed) in a "stop- BJP" strategy.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 09 Feb 2020 06:15

pankajs wrote:Per some on twitter, the exit poll was for voting up to 3:00 pm

By ~3:00 pm the voting % ~ 30%
By ~6:00 pm the voting % ~ 60%

The numbers have a lag. The voting percentage is more than what is reported LIVE. How much more, we don't know but a surge past 4pm is there. The task is made harder by congress transferring more its vote than in 2015. In 2015, congress got 9%. This time, people are putting congress at 4 ot 5%.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 09 Feb 2020 08:22

eklavya wrote:^^^^
The CAA drama is to stop NRC, at least according to my understanding. I don’t think the Shaheen Bagh ladies are protesting for the “right” of their husbands to take up to 4 wives.

IMO, it has more to do with CAA disturbing the cast-in-stone colonial India TSP equal equal and Hindu Muslim equal equal in "South Asia". By India giving refuge to persecuted minorities (read Hindus even though there are other persecuted religions like Sikhs), it disrupts this equal equal, and more importantly, it elevates Hindu India to an enlightened civilization. This is anathema to both Islamic RAPE in India as also to white Christian bahadurs.

In the former's minds, its an affront to suggest that there is any such thing as Islamic barbarity visa vi Hindus and even more insulting to them, Hindus coming to the aid of those persecuted by their (Islamic Paki) brethren.

In the latter case, how dare SDRE Hindus consider themselves as enlightened to help persecuted minorities. That pedestal is only reserved for the white Christian west. There has to be something sinister if SDRE Hindus are doing it.

Also, in the case of perverted Hindu liberandus , there is another factor. Since almost all, if not all of the persecuted Hindus are SC/ST and Dalits, it busts the central anti-Hinduthva plank that Hinduthva is all about Brahmin Bania superiority which allegedly BJP/RSS espouses.

In short, any Hindu consolidation, any Hindu assertion, any Hindu pride, any Hindu grievance cannot be allowed to be given legitimacy. And at its core, its a clash of Hindu Vs Islamic civilizations, with western Christian civilization taking the side that benefits them.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 09 Feb 2020 09:53

Victimhood is a Mohammedan Birth-Right: How can a Hindu or a Sikh or a Buddhist ever be a victim? That will make Allah angry.

I wish that even a fraction of the concern & solidarity media liberals are showering on Shaheenbagh protestors had been shown towards those who fled religious persecution from Pak/ B’desh. Those unfortunate Mathuas, Namasudras & Chakmas were far away from Delhi & hence forgotten

@CRamS

this is the "only muslims can be victims" syndrome

this is the religious equivalent of the NIH syndrome: not invented here syndrome.

this is the "only muslims can be victims" syndrome pushed globally by the pissfuls for the longest time and most of all this syndrome has a large non muslim support in India and that too from overly gullible and paid woke Hindus and is the prime result of the narrative pushed by the "minorities".

Would anyone else in the world have dared to push the culturally brazen, religiously fraudulent and politically demeaning communal violence bill against the majority like it was done in India.

It's all about dominance and the grabbing of India's population, resources and agriculturally productive landmass.

If the Hindus stayed under the foreign yoke for some tens of centuries why not legitimize such a situation in the modern 21st century milieu

the NAC was the first real taste of success gained by the BIF in recent times and the result was the RTE.

shaheenbagh is the first attempt after the BJP has come to power and put many a spoke in the BIF designs, primarily using the hard hitting but not yet fully effective FCRA.

The pace at which the social reforms have taken place has completely unnerved the BIF from both "minorities".

Next is to protect the Hindus who have become a capitive prey base for the rabid conversion rackets of these minorities