KrishnaK wrote:I foresee a referendum in Turkey analogous to the imminent one in Scotland, in which those living in the majority-Kurdish regions vote whether to remain part of the Republic of Turkey or to secede. Such a vote would undoubtedly endorse secession.
One of the happy side-effects of Kurdish secession would be to impede the ambitions of Turkey's rogue autocratic president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. This is no small matter, inasmuch as Turkey under his leadership represents the greatest long-term threat to Western interests in the Middle East.
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Precisely why this scot referendum business was not in our interest. We're the world's largest multi-ethnic state with diversity like no 10 other. We'll always have malcontents within the union. Gives them just that bit more.[/quote]
We underestimate Britain. While the military might may have declined, several old economic interest groups still run through Britain.
My personal opinion is that the referendum was a big fat sham. What I mean is that Britain was never at risk of dismembering because they knew the numbers and they knew how to make up for the delta. The vote was close but these guys knew the few actions that would swing it.
The next time this comes around, Scotlands identity will be so diluted that it will be a moot point. Northern Ireland has already lost it's unique Irish identity.
Now this will be used as a baton to beat up others with much more complex situations. There were already desi sellouts using this as an example of J&K.
There have been referendums across anglosphere but they lead to nothing because truly heterogeneous and unique groups have been made extinct or reduced to museum pieces such as the ethnic populations of Canada and Australia. Else they are so disenfranchised that a quart of alcohol will buy them. When the differences are virtually nil then referendums become a way of reinforcing strengths and creating a template to dismember enemies like India. And have no doubt, the biggest enemy of the anglosphere in their minds is India. Not china but India.
The one lesson other countries can take from this is that referendums should be held when chances of victory are certain. For instance don't hold a referendum in a region where there is a separatist movement raging, hold it where polite liberals are discussing secession. Of course you need the press and it's very civilized polls to tell the story. Then use it as a baton for situations that have nothing in common.
Everything is a chimera and everything is shadow play.
Look at the ethnic breakdown. They did not really have to do much to swing it. 17% of the vote was a confirm. They needed 50% of the rest which due to historical factors was not that hard. After 100 years this will be a different game. The british are past masters.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Scotland