Dear Professor Fair:
You are quoted in McClatchy as follows:
""We need a big idea for Pakistan, to transform it from a source of insecurity for the region to a country committed to eliminating terrorism and ensuring that nuclear proliferation doesn't happen again," Fair said. "At the moment, we're trying to get Pakistan to do things that are in our strategic interests, but not in theirs."
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/03/18/9 ... z0ipBOulHz
With all due respect, I think you have gotten this utterly backwards.
Pakistan needs a big idea for itself, such cannot be transplanted by the US.
For instance, Pakistan could try to be another Asian Tiger Economy. It does not choose to be.
Read Masood Hasan's lament in Pakistan's The News:
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=230269
Internet stores do not ship to Pakistan nor do they accept credit cards from Pakistan.
This is because the Pakistani establishment sees strategic depth in Afghanistan, wresting Jammu and Kashmir from India, promoting the Islamization of the country as more important than even such elementary issues, that keep Pakistan from participating in the global economy.
Problems like that reported by Masood Hasan cannot be fixed by the US government, IMF, World Bank and European Union combined. It cannot be solved by giving Pakistan nuclear deals, arms, aid, disguised as "big ideas".
These problems require a change of heart of the Pakistani establishment. Now, if they come to the upcoming strategic negotiations with the US and say - we want to be the next Asian tiger, help us - then you can say, do this and do that, and we'll provide this and that, and help you get there.
If the Pakistanis come to the strategic negotiations wanting a nuclear deal to be on parity with India, and the predominant voice in any settlement in Afghanistan to create or preserve strategic depth, and arms so that they don't feel outmatched by India and so on, then sure, the US can provide these;
BUT
1. This won't transform Pakistan - it will simply keep it on its current track
2. This won't change Pakistani strategic interests.
3. It won't reduce Pakistan as a source of instability
4. It won't enable Pakistan to participate in the global economy.
5. US and Pakistani strategic interests will continue to diverge
We definitely don't need a big idea for Pakistan, except perhaps to say that we will not support them until they get a big idea for themselves, that we can participate in, and help with.
_____________________
Taking it to the next level: Pakistan could say - we do want to be the next Asian tiger, it is just we face all these constraints.
That would a lie. E.g., see these series of articles by Pakistani writers warning that Punjab and the Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League are drenched in Taliban ideology. Punjab is by far the largest province and the PML-N is the province's government, and is part of the federal government. How can they say with a straight face that this is what they want, and how can any undeluded American believe them?
Irfan Husain in the Dawn:
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/daw ... -030-zj-14
The Sharif's brothers' "party {PML-N} is indeed ideologically very close to the Taliban’s extremist position on a wide range of issues."
Ayaz Amir in Pakistan's The News:
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=229877
Punjab can no longer live in denial : "If FATA represents the cutting edge of terrorism in the name of Islam, Punjab, unfortunately, is the hinterland of this phenomenon. Or, to borrow a phrase from the repertoire of military folly, Punjab is the strategic depth of bigotry and extremism masquerading in the colours of Islam. "
The editors of Dawn:
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/daw ... -630-zj-08
Why is it so difficult for the PML-N to condemn terrorism outright, with no ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’?
Kamran Shafi in the Dawn:
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/daw ... kistan-630
"Lahore has been attacked twice inside of a week, the attacks killing scores of people and injuring and maiming many more. The intelligence agencies failed all ends up yet again, and as per usual, specially the premier agency aka the Mother of All Agencies which seems to have its finger in every matter — from disappearing people to formulating the country’s foreign policy to destabilising the government whenever it is perceived to be stepping ‘out of line’ — except in running the yahoos to the ground and nipping their evil in the bud."
This may be tiresome to read again - but giving Pakistan arms, nuclear deals, civilian aid, etc. cannot, does not and will not make PML-N any less sympathizers of the Taliban. PML-N is simply taken for illustration, because recent election results and its position in Pakistani politics does not permit the excuse that this is fringe movement. There is good reason to believe that the ideology goes much beyond the PML-N and its supporters.
Now, let PML-N want to change, and then we have something to talk about.
Sincerely,
Arun Gupta