The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc) - II

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Feb 2016 21:33

UN still recognizes Russia's legitimacy in defending Syria and Syrian air space. Of course it all depends on who has the bigger mijjile: Er-do-gand, AlObama or Comrade Vlad. A turkish invasion of Syria is a blatant violation of UN everything, so UN might as well dissolve itself if it allows that.

In case of war, Turkey will seek to close the Black Sea access. But ... the snow is melting soon, and so is the northern ice-cap.

Is AlObama willing to risk all-out war in his last saal of office, in defense of mass-murderers? Not if there is any intelligence at work, but then u can point 2 Dubya 2003 and I have to agree that this is not a valid criterion. Turkey is in blatant brinkmanship. Bottom line is that the Russians CAN blast the Turkish invasion force, AND their Air Force. Is NATO (France, Germany) going to sacrifice themselves for the sake of an obvious mass-murderer?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Feb 2016 21:34

Let's see if Putin brings in a whole squadron of Su-35s and 4 or 5 of Su-30s.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 07 Feb 2016 21:44

On the frontlines, while SAA had a good day against ISIS and in Northern Aleppo and Lattakia, Eastern Ghouta turned into blood bath for SAA. An ambush caught around 50 SAA in direct line of fire. All KIA.

Graphic video here:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdPLZxPlZ6Q&app=desktop

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 07 Feb 2016 22:08

deejay,

this is the arabian bravado that got the syrians into this mess. not waiting for air support, charging into bayonets. the lot.

but they dont seem to be running away quite like the rest of gelf, see arabian town here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0dxZxsjOUA

swtbacks will happen. many. the progress is mostly due to iran and russia taking direct charge of those fronts. this front will get added to the list. the real lingering positive here from external involvement is the traiNing they are now iMparting to folks not yet on the fronts. combine with closed borders and you get a lid on the pot.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 07 Feb 2016 22:27

deejay wrote:On the frontlines, while SAA had a good day against ISIS and in Northern Aleppo and Lattakia, Eastern Ghouta turned into blood bath for SAA. An ambush caught around 50 SAA in direct line of fire. All KIA.

Graphic video here:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdPLZxPlZ6Q&app=desktop

they were trying to escape a bad situation. they didn't even try to provide covering support fire or smoke screens to help them. they must of panicked. poor ********.....or else an uncaring leadership told them to maneuver w/o supporting arms and the leadership should be court martialed.

this would be a national disgrace in the US. heads would roll.......

habal · Post by **habal** » 07 Feb 2016 22:56

deejay, & you counted 50 there ?
At best a dozen unarmed people who did not fire back.
also Isn't it a bit too convenient to take a video of this turkey shoot.

last checked daraa and east ghouta were under siege by SAA. So either this is old video or propaganda packaged to boost rat morale.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Feb 2016 23:14

heads would roll.......

Fortunately with no effect on the intelligence of the leadership.

But yes, in a situation where the US had all-round superiority, the loss of 50 men in an ambush would be a terrible thing. But Syria is more now like WW2, was like WW1. The loss of a unit is, well...
The men in Aleppo were waiting to die anyhow until Ivan flew in. No wonder they have a somewhat different attitude towards risk.
In any event, the body count here appears to have been done by our friends who counted 20,000 Pakis agitating in Kashmir a while back. Shiv may remember that event. Shows that the danger is not over, not by a long shot. Tragic waste. Wonder if those were bullets and shells paid for by the Taxpayers of the US of A, with compliments to the Islamist terrorists - I mean in Syria. These men were patriots serving in the Armed Forces of their nation, right? Murdered by goat-luvin' terrorists?

member_28990 · Post by **member_28990** » 08 Feb 2016 00:14

deejay wrote:On the frontlines, while SAA had a good day against ISIS and in Northern Aleppo and Lattakia, Eastern Ghouta turned into blood bath for SAA. An ambush caught around 50 SAA in direct line of fire. All KIA.

Graphic video here:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdPLZxPlZ6Q&app=desktop

this looks an underworld fake encounter/execution style video. those guys had no chance.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 08 Feb 2016 00:26

UlanBatori wrote:Let's see if Putin brings in a whole squadron of Su-35s and 4 or 5 of Su-30s.

Funny, 3 days ago, met 2 senior BRFwalas for Cofeeee and this question popped up.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2016 06:39

"combined arms" is a thing that only tier-1 armies are really equipped to do, and that also sometimes breaks down.

the current syrian govt forces range all the way from old veterans of SAA/hezbollah to young lads with a few months of training to enthusiastic shia militias from iraq and iran. russian advisers have already commented they could not fight in large formations hence the platoon level actions.

russia will do what it can to improve training, artillery, radio coordination for CAS but there are limits to what it can do outside its formal training systems in russia. iranians can perhaps help with ground campaign planning as many syrian army generals defected or fled long ago..and they have their own drones onsite...could be reason why so many senior or retd iranian generals are onsite in syria...

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 08 Feb 2016 06:47

Habal ji, no I did not count fifty there. Saw the news first on the rebel twitter handles and then on Elijah J. Magnier 's feed. The video looks new though I am not sure it is of recent vintage. I wrote 50 as the tweet said 50. Numbers could be different.

My take on why they got hit the way they got hit was probably because they were the newer recruits with no / little training. Unlike TSJ, I am not a marine

but I did do my fair share of training in ambush and patrolling and even to my eyes these SAA troops were making basic errors.

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Feb 2016 06:52

fars has an article that usa desperately wants to assasinate gen. soleimani to 'make them feel better about themselves'.

http://en.abna24.com/service/iran/archi ... story.html

deejay, it seems to be year old video, because there was an ambush on NDF at daara/east ghouta at that time. But these folks do not fire back, so their weapons are out of ammo. These people seem to be POW of some sort to attempt suicide or decapitation kinda choices. Same video is on liveleak also, poster is IDF sympathiser.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 08 Feb 2016 06:55

^^^ Could be. No firing in return is clear proof of something fishy. Return fire in ambush is a reflex action.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2016 07:21

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2016 07:22

azaz will fall to YPG and Tel Rifat SAA and that will be the end of this green pocket.

next move is up to usa and ndf to get @ al jarablous and manbij in east

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 08 Feb 2016 08:00

YPG have secured Ifrin / Afrin by capturing Dier Jamal - East of Ifrin.

SAA are now attacking Kafr Naya north of Murrat Al Khan. South of this bridge to Nubl & Zahra they need to take Biyanoun and Hayyan to secure this bridge.

FSA is sending fresh reinforcements to Northern Aleppo. No clarity on which group within FSA is doing this.

Jund Al Aqsa has split in two parts. One part joined the moderate terrorists affiliated to Al CIAda called Al Nusra and other part went on to become full-time XXX terrorists called ISIS.

In Homs, 133 terrorists have surrendered to Syrian Govt. As they say -" When the going gets tough, the tough get going" - literally.

In Eastern Aleppo, Tiger Forces have another 7 kms approx to surround ISIS rats in a pocket, The Tiger Forces made good progress yesterday.

In Southern Syria, Daraa province two places Ibtaa and Dael surrendered to the govt forces as part of a larger reconciliation deal.
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ibt ... overnment/

In Lattakia, the progress has slowed to one hill top a day.

All this means that the following important places are under terrorist control in northern Syria outside of Terrorist control:

> Lattakia: Kinsabba
> Idlib: Jisr Al Shugur, Reyhanli crossing, Idlib, Kifranbel (political hub, protester base and coverage of pro FSA protests from here), Sirmaniyah, Morek, Karf Zita, Maraat Al Nouman, etc (Entire Idlib actually but naming a few places)

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2016 08:34

irani badr workshop made rockets and MLRS - industrious looking lot

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2016 08:37

agile COTS innovation - they have taken standard earth and rock tipper trucks, removed the protective hood over the drivers cabin and there you go - it already has heavy duty jacks to raise and lower. unlike a proper MLRS it cannot rotate so azimuth is by parking the truck pointing the right way.
the rockets seem like made of empty industrial gas cylinders with a nose and tail added.

in a way it harks back to the things yehudis had to do to survive the attack by the arabs in late 40s. the hell cannon type propane gas cylinder mortars and vast number of IEDs and mods were born then.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2016 08:42

some guy with a shotgun putting meat on the plate for this team

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CapKtJ9XEAAaNqn.jpg

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 08 Feb 2016 09:05

The video of SAA I had posted above from Eastern Ghouta seems genuine. The num count of those KIA seems to be half as per Al Masdar thought TerrorMonitor says 50 with individual bodies numerically marked shown in pics posted. Al Masdar says its not SAA but NDF (Local volunteers plus Palestinian troops) and blames the local commanders.

https://twitter.com/Terror_Monitor/stat ... 6942742529

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ndf ... -disaster/

On Sunday morning, the National Defense Forces (NDF) and the Palestine Liberation Army (Palestinian wing of the Syrian Arab Army) launched an offensive to recapture the imperative hilltop village of Tal Kurdi in the East Ghouta region of rural Damascus.

However, the offensive did not go as planned for the pro-government forces; instead, it ended in disaster, as over 25 militiamen were gunned down by the well-prepared Jaysh Al-Islam (Army of Islam) militants that were videotaped firing off rounds of ammunition towards the PLA and NDF fighters running in the open field.

Video footage of the attack was posting by the social media activists from Jaysh Al-Islam; this confirmed the failure of the assault, which ended in a mere half hour with no enemy casualties.

The Tal Kurdi offensive was not only poorly executed, but also, poorly planned; this is likely the fault of their commanders that thought they could send fresh recruits possessing very little training into a well-defended garrison controlled by veteran militants.

In the past few weeks, the Syrian Armed Forces have advanced all over the East Ghouta region; however, as of recently, the Syrian Arab Army’s Central Command has concentrated a large amount of soldiers to the West Ghouta in order to begin the integral offensive at Darayya.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ndf ... -disaster/ | Al-Masdar News

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Feb 2016 09:25

UlanBatori wrote:Let's see if Putin brings in a whole squadron of Su-35s and 4 or 5 of Su-30s.

I dont know if there is any reason for him to bring that kind of numbers , Unless some of the coalition members ends on a deliberate duel with russian aircraft and shoots it down pr vice verse , As long as they all go on their way there wont be any reason to increase numbers.

In the end the people who holds the land will have the upper hand , So more than aircraft they more need more troops from SAA /Hezb and Iran.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 08 Feb 2016 09:59

actually a few more cas strikes can change the game. but its not planes alone. its planes and spotters.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2016 10:22

the best weapon for Rus to control the situation would be reaperskis with 8 ATGMs....they can be the silent cas at 15,000ft .... relatively cheap per flying hour and low collateral damage to target militant bunkers. but they dropped the ball on that one and have nothing as yet.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 08 Feb 2016 11:33

I am sure Syrians can also source the Chinese drones available with Iraqi Air Force. I am not sure why they are not doing it.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 08 Feb 2016 11:55

Singha wrote:the best weapon for Rus to control the situation would be reaperskis with 8 ATGMs....they can be the silent cas at 15,000ft .... relatively cheap per flying hour and low collateral damage to target militant bunkers. but they dropped the ball on that one and have nothing as yet.

if iran can do s-129, which will do what you asking for, you can assume the russians have a lot in the domain. why they arent using it -- geopolitics. same as reapers doing selective work. rusdia doesnt want to use anything it doesnt absolutely need to. eg r77s on the su35s nothing even remotely recent.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2016 13:25

the mess forums:
‪#‎Aleppo‬ a new American troop arrive in Ain Arab (Kobani) city, consisting of 20 combatants, and dropped off a helicopter landed on ‪#‎Tall_Ghazal‬ village (10 km to the southwest of the city). They were moved amid tight security to Tishrin Dam. LCC sources stated that the American soldiers will supervise a planed assault by Syria Democratic Forces on ‪#‎Manbej‬ city (to the north of Aleppo city), which is under ISIS control. The sources added up also that two cargo aircrafts arrived before the soldiers in the mentioned village and loaded with arms and ammos for SDF, which in turn brought in 250 of their combatants from Jazeera Canton to ‪#‎Sarrin‬ town three days ago.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2016 13:27

YPG setting a buffer between itself and the uneasy SAA, another report said first convoy had 80 fighters from idlib who crossed YPG territory toward azaz.

---
the mess forum:

And YPG allowed hundred of FSA fighters to cross Afrin. Apparently they are from the minor brigades that pledged allegiance to SDF few months back and are to be deployed to counter regime so YPG can get time to capture Azaz and the turkish border.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2016 13:31

^^ the stage looks set for ISIS to start being beaten back from the turkey border

- YPG to attack azaz and grab the border on west
- YPG,assyrians and north iraq peshmerga loaned forces to attack jarablous by crossing the euphrates while khan armtwists the sultan to sit out this one
- SDF to stage off their tishreen dam beach head and move north to manbej
- the 'tiger' force in east aleppo finishes that thermal plant pocket and moves NE to el-Bab and SE to deir hafr

IS would have to pull back to Raqqa if the above 4 events happened in any order. none of the other players will show them any mercy due to past atrocities.

pralay · Post by **pralay** » 08 Feb 2016 13:32

Singha ji,
Do you know any site with live map other that http://syria.liveuamap.com ?

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 08 Feb 2016 13:46

once raqqa is de-ratted, wonder where all the ratlets and rat-wannabe's will scamper to...?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2016 13:57

i usually refer the maps of petolucem or those of some others he retweets. daily updates are routinely available. if you want pro-syrian govt news follow these handles who all x-link and retweet

hassan ridha
petolucem
nimr tiger
leith abdul fadel
ivan sidorenko
agathocle desyracuse
elijah magnier
SAA reporter

all of them vary in degree of pro-regimeness. few more reporters they also follow you will see in their twitter pages.

they also retweet jihadi ones if the news is anti-jihadi!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2016 14:03

Lalmohan wrote:once raqqa is de-ratted, wonder where all the ratlets and rat-wannabe's will scamper to...?

they might be looking to take over deir azzor as a 2nd base with well prepared defences they can reuse.

hama-raqqa and palmyra-raqqa is 200 km of desert. regime is barely hanging on in deir azzor and cannot mount any offence from there unless amrika loans its 1st airborne to assad. 200km raiding is beyond level of assad forces ... it needs a OIF type logistical and mechanized army group.

the only creeping approach is diagonally SE from east aleppo along the euphrates farming belt.

imo the rodents in raqqa and deir azzor and haditha are safe for atleast 6 months from direct attack.
same for mosul which none has made a move on.

the full eradication of the rats would be surely 2 yrs. and question is what replaces them...will the SDF participate in future syrian elections and elect to remain part of syria ? will YPG? even if they are together, all are heavily armed and have bitter memories...so UN will have to deploy large peacekeeping forces to separate all of them as funds are sent to rebuild the shattered country from the basement up. some statesmen with credibility on all sides and a full-stop of external meddling might help. some of the key generals now could be tomorrows politicians.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 08 Feb 2016 14:07

kurds are more interested in kurdistan and turkey rather than starting a war with 'arabs' - they are holding back to keep their powder dry for the turks

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 Feb 2016 14:08

the iraqi army and its shia militias seem to be rather immobile and ineffective compared to the syrian units who are rather busy all over the place.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 08 Feb 2016 14:11

iraq is probably at a (political) stalemate compared to the ground situation in syria
the sunni-shia balance is probably close to where it needs to be and only the guest-isis needs to be removed so that the old baathists can set up their sunni-zone
syria on the other hand has to see the alewis get back in charge

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Feb 2016 17:03

Interesting tidbit: AMERICAN AIRSTRIKE kills at least 8 in ISIS "CONVOY". In Deir Ez Zor!

Reading on, one finds that
a) the "convoy" was just 4 cars carrying a total of 11. 3 seem to have survived.
b) those killed have been named. Mass-murderers. Seems like a convenient way for those "leaders" to now disappear with new identity kit etc.
c) From the scope of the attack it sounds like a Predator, not manned fighters.
UBCN CT: See Item b).

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 08 Feb 2016 20:23

Things must be really bad if the

RuAF drops parachute supplies over Brig. 137 and the hospital in #DeirEzzor

Wish they could set down a few brigades of Special Balaclava Vodka Carriers outside D-E-Z and really mow down the rats. I wouldn't want to be one of those Vodka carriers, though!

Reports of infighting/clashes in Al-Muhsin in #DeirEzzor countryside, leading to death/wounding of many including: (list of 13 names)

Al-Masdar News ‏@TheArabSource Feb 5

Syrian Army seizes #ISIS supply tunnel in Deir Ezzor City http://bit.ly/1mj90Pw #DeirEzzor #Syria

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 08 Feb 2016 20:30

Shreeman wrote:yk,

indeed. see https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/mi ... story.html

but this is not new. turkish "aid" is different than the buffer zone. turkey wants a chunk of aleppo, that isnt happening. stuff going to all and sundry? thats how this was sustained until now. but the aleppo/turkish border uncontrolled region is now few km deep, possible to overrun in a day with air support. turkey stepping in == NATO unable to support. erdogan can huff or puff but losing that nato support is the same as nukenude bakis.

turkey overlooks its own vulnerability -- inability to take large ground losses in public. i still say turkey isnt publicly wandering in. they will take potshots from across the line. and they have been jailing anyone who pointed out what the trucks were carrying for years.

in the long term, this hurts turkey worse than syria.

Look at it from turkey 's pov. They need to draw in NATO, i.e., USA on their side against the alliance which now includes Russia, to achieve their goal of ending Kurdish resistance and reviving the caliphate.

Rational thinking leads to the conclusion that NATO/USA would laugh and never agree to such a stupid course. But the look at the actual record--in both Iraq and Libya, the Republican-Hilary alliance did undertake exactly such a stupid action, effectively bankrupting the US and endangering world security. Not to mention not finishing the job in Afghanistan and instead contracting out to Pakistan.

Hilary has toned it down nowadays a bit, but she and the Republican mainstream candidates (other than Trump ) are united in demanding a no-fly zone in Syria. Even after Russia entered the picture, no one has said they changed their policy of wanting a no-fly zone. They just aren't repeating it as much.

In 2003 till it happened, no rational observer thought that US /NATO would do something crazy like going into Iraq. Then everyone conveniently blamed Bush-Cheyney, overlooking the reality that it was actually a mainstream "bipartisan " consensus to try and take Iraq. It was a partial failure because shias got a foothold and they are friends with Iraq, but it was still a total destruction of a secular dictatorship.

Same is the case with Libya. Consensus to destroy a secular dictatorship. Of course now in Syria, and long before that, in Afghanistan with the Babrak Karmal regime. Even though secular dictatorships offer the best chance for Muslims to explore ways to develop into a relatively modern culture.

Given all this data and history, is it crazy/delusional for Erdogan to believe that NATO/US won't help him achieve his goals?

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 08 Feb 2016 20:35

UlanBatori wrote:UN still recognizes Russia's legitimacy in defending Syria and Syrian air space. Of course it all depends on who has the bigger mijjile: Er-do-gand, AlObama or Comrade Vlad. A turkish invasion of Syria is a blatant violation of UN everything, so UN might as well dissolve itself if it allows that.

But how can the UN dissolve itself now when it has already done that in 2003 when US invaded Iraq?

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 08 Feb 2016 20:42

TSJones wrote:
deejay wrote:On the frontlines, while SAA had a good day against ISIS and in Northern Aleppo and Lattakia, Eastern Ghouta turned into blood bath for SAA. An ambush caught around 50 SAA in direct line of fire. All KIA.

Graphic video here:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdPLZxPlZ6Q&app=desktop
they were trying to escape a bad situation. they didn't even try to provide covering support fire or smoke screens to help them. they must of panicked. poor ******** else an uncaring leadership told them to maneuver w/o supporting arms and the leadership should be court martialed.

this would be a national disgrace in the US. heads would roll.......

Yeah like they rolled when American political and military leasers sent thousands of American troops to be murdered bt pakis after those pakis were given billions of American taxpayer dollars in tribute.

Why don't you give up, man(?)?