India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[ramana]

One quick reform needed is to find the three main guys in the MoD procurement chain: Babu, DGQA, Military and dismiss them for the umpteen delays in acquiring Indian made weapon systems.
All should be jailed for criminal negligence.
What stopped the Tejas Order from being given? What stopped the 40 MKI from HAL and now go buy 12 MKI from Russia?

And dismiss the OFB trade Union controlled by Opposition parties.
No political party affiliation for such an important industry.
Declare OFB as an essential industry and ban political party affiliation for the union.
If they protest ban the union.

Philip, India deployments are not lacking in the theater, we match and in some sectors, we have more.

We should dhoti shiver but if it comes to chaddi shiver need to stop.

[schinnas]

India has an A team now. A CDS to ensure coordination between forces, best NSA ever, a PM with will of steel and who can keep calm on the storm

While there may be some gaps in procurement, several improvements made in the past 4+ years to substantially improve logistics, border infra, ammo stock, serviceability, coordination, intelligence gathering, etc., will all come in handy.

Remember the right strategy, tactics and execution and skill of the army are more important than mere counting of weapons and weapon types. Especially in the mountain terrain and altitude that disadvantages enemy airforce and numerical superiority.

The biggest advantage of Cheen is their MIC and ability to sustain a prolonged conflict. That advantage is blunted by the fact that India border is far away from their industry base and we csn cut off supply lines by taking out few key railway and highway bridges in areas that are difficult to repair quickly.

I am for one 100% confident that India will emerge much stronger and the winner in the end, whether it is a localised conflict or more widespread war that ends within a month.

[NRao]

Can India not withdraw her support for One China policy, plan on inviting Taiwan into WHO, start thinking of dealing with human rights issues as member of UNSC, etc.

And watch a few Chinese gaskets blow?

Cheaper I would think.

?????

[Larry Walker]

Why do we assume that Chinese will now suddenly go dharmic and non-violent ? We are taking this situation like trucks of Indian and Chinese armies collided during patrolling and some lives were lost !! No - they planned it and then hunted our defenceless bravehearts. Even if they had only physically arrested our men and released after or even refused to release - still that would have been within "normal" relations. Here - they barbarically hunted and bludgeoned our soliders. This is not one-off insanity episode - it is a part of a larger plan now in action. So rather than reacting, we take initiatives based on our own objectives and capabilities.

[Aditya_V]

No wonder the Chinese are so arrogant, we have talked inspite of them not honoring any agreement.

[AshishA]

Okay I have just seen Ladakh MP say that Aksai Chin belongs to us and it's about time we take it back. Is it supposed to send a message to China? Or else why make such a statement?

[ldev]

Russia has scores of SU-30SMs,equiv to MKIs,SU-35s,etc. We should request an immediate lease of 3 to 4 sqds of available aircraft while the extra MKIs and MIGs are being delivered. A few MIG-31s,offered earlier to replace our MIG-25s,as AWACS killers would be very useful,plus lease of Backfires or Bears,the latter we've operated until recently for maritime strike.More 155mm light howitzers from the US and western nations from existing stocks to add to the number already ordered/ being delivered. Extra Chinooks,MI-26T heavy lift helos,both on lease,C-130s,MI-17Vs, missiles of varying reqs., etc. Israeli and Ru battlefield SR SAM systems ,ICVs/ light tanks as well.

For the IN apart from LR maritime strike aircraft that can take the fight into the ICS, extra P-8s if available on lease until the extra 4/8 are delivered, the offered Kilo subs plus another Akula on lease asap until the second Chakra being modified arrives in a couple of years time. We don't know what the stocks of tactical missiles and PGMs are withthe IA and IAF, but emergency acquisitions from abroad should be sought while boosting desi production 24 X 7. From GWars experience,missiles likd Tomahawks and PGMs quickly get exhausted in the initial days of conflict. The US had to boost T'hawk production hugely to meet demand.In the Libyan conflict,dozens were fired in salvoes by US subs and warships. To hit Chin airbases, PLA commsnd centres and strongpoints,key infra installations like bridges,tunnels,etc. severing the Karakorum highway, etc. we would need hundreds of tactical missiles for the same.

Our CG vessels must be fitted asap with SSMs,minewarfare and ASW eqpt. where possible to add to the no. of " shooters" inthe inventory of the IN/ CG. Extra missile craft are required at the chokepoints operating out of the ANC.Extra Dorniers planned must be ordered and every asset that can fly be brought into service from the reserves. I don't know if the recently retd. MIG-27sqd. can be re-commissioned,but every extra aircraft and helo matters especially in the opening hours/ days of conflict. One item which could be very useful which some time ago we were contemplating are E-2C/D Hawkeye AEW aircraft.
Leased,these could operate from land to add to our modest no. of AWACS and AEW aircraft in service. They could be invaluable tracking Chin aircraft all along the 3000+km northern border.

It is unfortunate that if some of these decisions and acquisitions had been ordered a year ago,the Chins would've been more cautious in invading. As usual,Indian govts. resort to knee-jerk reactions when the shit hits the fan.This crisis is a colossal failure of our foreign policy and a clean up in the MEA is reqd. immediately.Gen VKS the Dy.FM must be given greater responsibility. " Jaw,jaw" has failed. Other more steely options are reqd.

Get Uncle Putin to send 500 Kalibr 3M-14T missiles pronto. They have a range of upto 2500 km.

And get the US to send 1000 Tomahawk Block 2 - TLAM missiles which they have probably decommissioned due to the INF treaty but are in storage.Also with a range of 2500 km.

Or better still light a fire under the a** of those responsible for Nirbhay.

That will make Uncle Xi pause.

[vimal]

We are back to panic buying and leasing just as we are pushed to war. Too little too late and we’ve lost to Chinese again.

[kit]

India has an A team now. A CDS to ensure coordination between forces, best NSA ever, a PM with will of steel and who can keep calm on the storm

While there may be some gaps in procurement, several improvements made in the past 4+ years to substantially improve logistics, border infra, ammo stock, serviceability, coordination, intelligence gathering, etc., will all come in handy.

Remember the right strategy, tactics and execution and skill of the army are more important than mere counting of weapons and weapon types. Especially in the mountain terrain and altitude that disadvantages their airforce.

Hope they are able to do what needs to be done !

[Jarita]

How credible is this given that disinformation is flying left and right

https://twitter.com/UndergroundSilk/sta ... 2652519425

Add to it the insane and unconnected tweets from Global Times and ilk. Conflicting messages classic.

[Jarita]

Okay I have just seen Ladakh MP say that Aksai Chin belongs to us and it's about time we take it back. Is it supposed to send a message to China? Or else why make such a statement?

Gosthana

[RajaRudra]

Not panicking, Saw a news that there was a strike declared by Commie and Cong trade unions in Ordnance Factories (in July).
War may happen of not.
But it is time to make those leaders pay. Should be summarily put under some harsh penal code.

[AshishA]

How credible is this given that disinformation is flying left and right

https://twitter.com/UndergroundSilk/sta ... 2652519425

Add to it the insane and unconnected tweets from Global Times and ilk. Conflicting messages classic.

The Chinese are playing a game called weiqi in real world where misdirection is the norm.

[Armuan]

https://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/amid- ... 59966.html
Probably in the works before the incident. Step in the right direction. It would accelerate from here.

[NRao]

How credible is this given that disinformation is flying left and right

https://twitter.com/UndergroundSilk/sta ... 2652519425

Add to it the insane and unconnected tweets from Global Times and ilk. Conflicting messages classic.

He did not get his **** this morning.


He tweets under multiple names:

Harry Chen PhD
@HarryChenPhD1
PhD in socioeconomics, 北大, the Underground Silk-Railroad Communique (
@undergroundsilk
)
email: [email protected]
IG: http://instagram.com/HarryChenPhd

[AshishA]

https://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/amid- ... 59966.html
Probably in the works before the incident. Step in the right direction. It would accelerate from here.

Yes, Many top CCP officials and top PLA guys own many of these organisations covertly. Hence, by cutting down on imports will hurt them personally and make them feel a pain greater than that of killing a random number of PLA low level soldiers.

[arshyam]

PS I do not know why Sugarland is being referred to as "Dragon", there is no such creature. In BRF we have called them "Lizard".

It's actually very apt. Just like the dragon, their "power" and self-image is ephemeral. The elephant and the tiger, OTOH, are very real and very dangerous.

[arshyam]

Emergency purchase of 12 Sukhoi and 21 Mig-29 from russia.

Source- Twitter @FrontalAssault1

Not sure, if that means we are preparing well..or just bulking up for back ups.
Could be replacement ordered for the crashed once in the case of Sukhois, Is the Mig 29 already ordered getting urgency now?

If true, some is reading Deans saar's book

[AshishA]

Emergency purchase of 12 Sukhoi and 21 Mig-29 from russia.

Source- Twitter @FrontalAssault1

Not sure, if that means we are preparing well..or just bulking up for back ups.
Could be replacement ordered for the crashed once in the case of Sukhois, Is the Mig 29 already ordered getting urgency now?

If true, some is reading Deans saar's book

But wasn't that done in secrecy in the book rather than in open as it is happening now?

[khan]

To me a key question is, is Modi Nehru?

Did Modi get sucked into “spirit of Wuhan” like Nehru got sucked into “Hindi-Chinni Bhai-Bahi”?

Did Modi ignore clear war preparations - that people on Twitter were warning about (And GOI had to have known about), while wishfully thinking of them as a some border management issue?

Honestly, I don’t think so. The way he deals with Pakistan and the way he spoke about our soldier “Mar-Mar Ke Mar Gaye” (this was a bit late in the game though) - makes me think that he understands war and has the stomach for it.

I hope there is some longer term strategy in play here and this was not a Nehru redoux.

Added later: So the question is what’s the strategy? What strategy would envision allowing your enemy add more and more troops and dig in?

[schinnas]

Indian retaliation is going to surprise Cheen and force them to retreat in shame. But it won't be immediate.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

To me a key question is, is Modi Nehru?

Did Modi get sucked into “spirit of Wuhan” like Nehru got sucked into “Hindi-Chinni Bhai-Bahi”?

Did Modi ignore clear war preparations - that people on Twitter were warning about (And GOI had to have known about), while wishfully thinking of them as a some border management issue?

Honestly, I don’t think so. The way he deals with Pakistan and the way he spoke about our soldier “Mar-Mar Ke Mar Gaye” (this was a bit late in the game though) - makes me think that he understands war and has the stomach for it.

I hope there is some longer term strategy in play here and this was not a Nehru redoux.

Added later: So the question is what’s the strategy? What strategy would envision allowing your enemy add more and more troops and dig in?

Stop trolling. The discussion here is on the situation seethe border and response. Not a comparison of Nehru and Modi. Observing over series of posts that you are trying to derail discussions.

Your post is being reported as flame bait

[ldev]

This image posted earlier in the thread from an external source shows what is stated to be clash site. That clash site is about 4.5 kms from the confluence of the Galwan and Shyok river.



The clash site is also about 1000 feet above the river bed up an almost sheer rock face. One newsreport states that the IA did not want the PLA to reach PP 14 which was somewhere on the river bed. So where exactly is PP 14? Is it in the Galvan river bed or is it almost at the mouth of the Galwan river? Or is is somewhere up the rock face at the actual LAC?

[ks_sachin]

To me a key question is, is Modi Nehru?

Did Modi get sucked into “spirit of Wuhan” like Nehru got sucked into “Hindi-Chinni Bhai-Bahi”?

Did Modi ignore clear war preparations - that people on Twitter were warning about (And GOI had to have known about), while wishfully thinking of them as a some border management issue?

Honestly, I don’t think so. The way he deals with Pakistan and the way he spoke about our soldier “Mar-Mar Ke Mar Gaye” (this was a bit late in the game though) - makes me think that he understands war and has the stomach for it.

I hope there is some longer term strategy in play here and this was not a Nehru redoux.

Added later: So the question is what’s the strategy? What strategy would envision allowing your enemy add more and more troops and dig in?

Stop trolling. The discussion here is on the situation seethe border and response. Not a comparison of Nehru and Modi. Observing over series of posts that you are trying to derail discussions.

Your post is being reported as flame bait

Don't be so precious. Nothing wrong in that post. Leadership has to be questioned in all circumstances. You are missing the woods for the trees.

[ks_sachin]

First thing would be to take our key bridges and tunnels of Chinese supply routes and make their forces sitting ducks. But kill only those needed to demonstrate punishment. The rest should be forced to surrender and surrendered officers kept as shields to prevent missile strikes on army installations.

I have a feeling that India won't immediately retaliate. It's not how Modi or our Army chiefs operate. We don't have any doubt about the resolve of India. Modi will not issue such a warning on national TV if he is not planning on walking the talk.

Remember - in 1971, we took several months and waited for winter to commence attack.

Lot of covert actions behind enemy lines can be made until then to disrupt supply lines and spread them thin.

Have you any idea of what you are talking? Any idea of the terrain.
Please gain some appreciation of what it is like at 14 or 15000 ft. Let me tell you that to just get used to the air it takes about a week plus.
Winter is coming so that reduces our window. So if we want to do something it is now if not goodbye to any salami slice they have taken.
The leadership has goofed Up and the boys pay...

[Deans]

May be I've watched too many movies. Is it feasible to have a few hundred paratroopers dropped behind enemy lines (may be from inside our lines but they sail behind them?) too hard in mountains/high altitude regions?

No. unless you have the air superiority to be able to resupply them by air, without those aircraft being intercepted. They can't be dropped in
the mountains. If they are dropped on open ground and they face a mechanised force, they will be slaughtered.
My book `2022, India's two front war', looks at situations where this can be possible in occupied Tibet.

[darshan]

All should be jailed for criminal negligence.
What stopped the Tejas Order from being given? What stopped the 40 MKI from HAL and now go buy 12 MKI from Russia?

And dismiss the OFB trade Union controlled by Opposition parties.
No political party affiliation for such an important industry.
Declare OFB as an essential industry and ban political party affiliation for the union.
If they protest ban the union.

Conveniently no one is bringing up these topics. No political entity and no major news outlet. Umpteen number of Chinese contracts and how Chinese exploit Indian corruption can also be added to the list of topics not being discussed.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Stop trolling. The discussion here is on the situation seethe border and response. Not a comparison of Nehru and Modi. Observing over series of posts that you are trying to derail discussions.

Your post is being reported as flame bait

Don't be so precious. Nothing wrong in that post. Leadership has to be questioned in all circumstances. You are missing the woods for the trees.

Go ahead and question leadership. But not at third time and this place.

Questioning political leadership now won't change leadership. Rather it will distract from discussion at hand.

Let's keep the thread clear. Please.

[Suraj]

Let's see here. The PM of India pushes a signature manufacturing effort to bring and keep production within India. Five years after it was created, it's basically not getting anywhere, because the MSME industry has been gutted by a decade of Chinese imports coming in cheaply. And the businesses are too hooked on this cheap supply of Chinese imports. This was warned about many years ago.

The reality of politics is this - sometimes a war is good. It galvanizes a people who otherwise are too selfishly interested in their cheap imported Chinese goods to voluntarily boycott it. The most effective way to get them to change their ways is to enable a war to happen with an entity with whom there's been no bloody fighting in a generation.

If I were Modi, I would sit back in some satisfaction at the situation - a war like this offers the political space to squeeze the Chinese import channel out completely. The Chinese make $60 BILLION a year in trade surplus. That's 4 MMRCAs a year worth of sarees, fireworks, cheap toys, and unreliable hardware being imported from there. Cut that off, and the costs to them are far more than any war they've ever fought. Sure they can harm our exports, but we only export $15 billion to them, and they import $75 billion to us. They'll run out of stuff to ban a long way before us.

The current situation is an amazing opportunity to broadly dismantle the pernicious base of Chinese imports to India - and to do it on social media through widespread dissemination . Already, my family members are on Whatsapp asking what non-Chinese phone instead of Oppo/Lenovo they can use, and these are people who have never asked something like this before.

I see this as opportunity staring at us in the face - right down to us as individuals. The PM is in a great place to actually push for the Indian opium addiction to Chinese goods to be removed. Replacing it with our own production only benefits us, and it harms the Chinese greatly. What's more, people themselves can broadly push an economic boycott over SM .

Blame on the PM ? If I were sitting in his position, I'd be satisfied - I now have the popular anger to harness to squeeze the endless flow of Chinese goods into India and the flow of Indian wealth out. I would focus on channeling that anger into actually imposing an effective economic boycott. When the Chinese see a most of their trade surplus evaporate, they'll realize that their stupidity cost them 10-11 figure dollar losses.

[khan]

Stop trolling. The discussion here is on the situation seethe border and response. Not a comparison of Nehru and Modi. Observing over series of posts that you are trying to derail discussions.

Your post is being reported as flame bait

You see, if it turns out that PM Modi believed this BS about the “spirit of Wuhan”, and completely ignored what even random “defense analysts” on Twitter knee and were telling us, one factor will be because he surrounded himself with “yes men” who told the PM what he wanted to hear.

I am hoping and praying that PM Modi did not fall into this trap & they have thought things out. I just find it hard to believe that a professional Army would have missed all this in this day and age.

Also - Honestly, I feel like a bit of introspection is also in order. The consensus of this board for the last month was dead wrong - the hawks who were crying themselves hoarse telling us that China has moved too many troops for this to be some of the usual nonsense were absolutely right.

We have to start asking hard questions & just banning people for asking them defeats the purpose of being here.

[nam]

Did Modi get sucked into “spirit of Wuhan” like Nehru got sucked into “Hindi-Chinni Bhai-Bahi”?

Did Modi ignore clear war preparations - that people on Twitter were warning about (And GOI had to have known about), while wishfully thinking of them as a some border management issue?

Added later: So the question is what’s the strategy? What strategy would envision allowing your enemy add more and more troops and dig in?

Over the years, I have learnt that defence matters are more grey than black or white. We blame babus all the time for the mess. However our military leaders are no whiter than white.

PM being a politician is not an expert in strategic security paradigms. He will ask our millitary leaders, how can we prepare for the chinese threat? IAF would say we need 42 sqd ( only Rafale, no plan b), IA would say we need gold platted MSC with air assest to deploy a division because of no roads, IN would say we need a 65K ton nuke carrier with American EM catapult and if not Rafale, F18s!

The bill for all of these? 100B! MoD babus will say, cannot fund such expensive kit, we need money for other things. MoF babu will say, we can do lene dene with the Chinese and prevent any escalation. Have done so far, will work again, no need to spend so much. Beside the Chinis have not fired a shot..while Paks have been shooting all the time.

Our military leaders want only foreign kit, DPSU want only jobs, Babus want to save money, MoF wants to prevent escalation.

Now what will the PM do?

[Cyrano]

Indian enterprises should come forward to sponsor Indian sports associations, sportsmen and sports women so that they can ditch Chinese brands.

BCCI should take the lead and find new sponsors ditching PayTm, Oppo etc.

We should all reach out to our favourite sports persons and urge them, support them.

[abhik]

One option is an attack spangur, using Marco's land at Sirijap and pound those posts with artillery from chushul, these ridges are exposed from the southern side. It could become a mini stalingrad moment for the Chinese.

As per Saurabh Jha they are already massing at Chushul too, looks like they have gamed their options.
https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1273226558195433472

Saurav Jha
@SJha1618
Meanwhile, reports of a heavy People's Liberation Army Ground Force (PLAGF) buildup opposite Chushul Sector are coming in. Stay tuned.

Just continuing my chain of thought... The Chinese are obviously not stupid, they have must have gamed how this is going to play out.
-> The fabled 1:10 (or whatever) manpower advantage has not actually materialised in the actual flash points. Any numeric numeric disadvantages, and acclimatisation problems they have negated by a reactive GoI which is getting out manoeuvred at every step.
-> We think the Chinese have long and vulnerable supply chain, but what about ours? PLA is sitting literally a few kms from some of our most important roads, like in Galwan, Chusul, DBO(?) - What if they are able to break out and cut off (and use) these roads? Our defences in ladask will mostly collapse no?
-> The only ace we have is air power, but surely they know that they are starting with a significant disadvantage, we shouldn't assume they would not have put in measures to negate our advantage - they do have a few tricks up their sleeve like long range SAMs, CM and BM in 4 digits, cyber and EW warfare, and even their handful stealth fighters etc. We know very little about the quantity and efficacy of a lot of these platforms, and will only find out when the balloon goes up.

My aim is not to do Dhoti Shibber, but have some rational analysis based on facts on the ground - some assumptions we have made on the basis of some views that were clearly not accurate (I remember watching this explainer video about the figure areas just 2 weeks back, the ex IA officer seemed pretty confident such large massing of troops would not be possible, going by the sat photos it had already happened by then).

[nam]

After following the opinion of ex-commanders from our services on twitter, I have realised each service is fundamentally fighting it's own war with the Chinese.

Army men are complaining about missing MSC, airforce men are saying where is the 50 sqd for 2 front, Navy guys have been pushing for more carriers for the past month.

What can we say.

[khan]

It’s not a question of indigenous manufacturing etc, it’s a question of why let things get to this point in these 3-4 areas over the last month. Why not do a Nathu La if you see the Chinese violating the force agreements (before they get people acclimatized etc).

That said the point about a time & place for this is well taken, I will hold my fire until this is over.

I trust that GOI & the armed forces have a larger plan (even though it might not be obvious to people like us). And they better have one - or the buck stops at PM Modi’s office.

[basant]

One quick reform needed is to find the three main guys in the MoD procurement chain: Babu, DGQA, Military and dismiss them for the umpteen delays in acquiring Indian made weapon systems.
All should be jailed for criminal negligence.
What stopped the Tejas Order from being given? What stopped the 40 MKI from HAL and now go buy 12 MKI from Russia?

And dismiss the OFB trade Union controlled by Opposition parties.
No political party affiliation for such an important industry.
Declare OFB as an essential industry and ban political party affiliation for the union.
If they protest ban the union.

Been desperate to say that sir. The RMs, FMs and PMs who under-performed/compromised security should be held accountable and at least castigated. MP's loss was for India with little gain for Goa. These issues should be revisited after this phase is over, not now. Himalayan Blunder
was forgotten by and large, but our misfortune is that even Doklam did not cause adequate alarm. At a time when even Shekhar Gupta says "... trust won’t return for decades now", I am not sure if the top most leadership has grasped the vitality of defence.

What horrifies me is the brutality and inhumanity displayed by the Chinese, even worse perhaps than Pakistanis. What makes me proud is that even under such circumstances, none of our soldiers broke the RoE. Which other military can even boast of such professionalism under such horrible circumstances and still inflict a humiliating setback to the adversary?

The foot soldiers and young officers are the best of the best. I only hope and pray that their leadership also raises to the bar set by these finest of men. 'Kesari' looks child play compared to what these gentlemen have endured and their courage and valour should rank among the finest of battles witnessed by humanity.

[Ambar]

To me a key question is, is Modi Nehru?

Did Modi get sucked into “spirit of Wuhan” like Nehru got sucked into “Hindi-Chinni Bhai-Bahi”?

Did Modi ignore clear war preparations - that people on Twitter were warning about (And GOI had to have known about), while wishfully thinking of them as a some border management issue?

Honestly, I don’t think so. The way he deals with Pakistan and the way he spoke about our soldier “Mar-Mar Ke Mar Gaye” (this was a bit late in the game though) - makes me think that he understands war and has the stomach for it.

I hope there is some longer term strategy in play here and this was not a Nehru redoux.

Added later: So the question is what’s the strategy? What strategy would envision allowing your enemy add more and more troops and dig in?

I am not sure i follow the line of questioning nor the intent. Did Modi or anyone in the government ask agencies or troops guarding the border to drop their guard ? If he believed in "Hindi-Cheeni bhai bhai" did he issue explicit order to our military to look the other way if the chinese were constructing structure on our side of the LAC ? It is atrocious to even compare Nehru's stupidity while dealing with China to what happened in Gawlan valley. The reason we are having this discussion today is because we refused to back off and yield unlike in the past when the chinese walked in, claimed their stake and pitched a tent.

[NRao]

Let's see here. The PM of India pushes a signature manufacturing effort to bring and keep production within India. Five years after it was created, it's basically not getting anywhere, because the MSME industry has been gutted by a decade of Chinese imports coming in cheaply. And the businesses are too hooked on this cheap supply of Chinese imports. This was warned about many years ago.

..............................

So true.

India is not even in the top 5 for either import or exports to China (heck Vietnam is ahead of India).

But when it comes to trade balance (actually imbalance) India is #4.

To get a good idea please visit:

https://howmuch.net/articles/chinas-exp ... de-balance



India is helping China to fund its defense and in addition support, many CCP + PLA higher-ups, who like the Pakistani Army retirees, own a lot of plum industries.

[nam]

It is simple. You base your action on experience. What is the probability of a shoot out on LAC, when it has not happened in the past 45 years? Chinese have intruded numerous times and then gone back.

They beef up their position, but the experience says ultimately Chinese will go with the status quo.

GoI will follow the experience. Our experience with Pak is different. That's why anyone seen walking on the Pak side of loc is shot.

[Cyrano]

PLA might have done all the gaming in the world, but I doubt if they ever foresaw what happened at Galwan and the casualties they took.

Same goes for us. Best laid plans go out of the window upon first contact with the enemy.