Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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Sidd
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sidd »

AjayKK wrote:
Singha wrote:in my booth aadhar cards were accepted as id . lots of people used it right in front of me. very few brought passports or pan cards.
chaanakya wrote: Any Photo ID card issued by Govt Dept out of 11 listed.[/url]
Aadhar ID is one of them
Yes Voter Slip can be taken from BLOs on the day of Poll at the facilitation desk set up at each Polling station manned by BLOs. Photos should match. Prior to poll it can be collected from Electoral registration office i.e. if you know the place.
Thanks. The concern was that there were incidents where Aadhar was not accepted due to some reasons. Even Niran ji had posted something similar yesterday:
niran wrote: bring along with one Sarkari issued photo ID which is
Drivers license(Bharat sakar issued not yemiriki) Passport, these two are the best and no, no Adhaar card, babu at booth do not recognize adhaar card as valid.

Passport
Driving license
Service Identity Cards with photographs issued to employees by Central, State Govt, Public Sector Undertakings, Public Limited Companies.
Passbooks with Photograph issued by Bank or Post Office
PAN card
Aadhar card
Smart Card issued by Registrar General of India(RGI) under National Population Register
Pension order with photo
MNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Gurantee Act Job Card
Health Insurance Smart Card issued under the scheme of Ministry of Labour

http://www.dnaindia.com/pune/report-10-alternatives-to-voter-id-card-for-voting-on-poll-day-1979003
Sanjay
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sanjay »

ramana, I concur with your query to niran.

this pmfor2014 chap on twitter - any credibility at all ?
kvraghav
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by kvraghav »

people may think that i am conservative when i gave a figure of 190 to bjp. I was 10 yrs old when i first started going for door to door campaigning for bjp. I have seen bjp go from loosing deposit to winning in mangalore. The caste dynamics that needed to be overcome to defeat poojary. India will be a caste based country and for this sake, i feel people will support mulayam, laloo and mayavati. That said, nda govt is sure but amma, jagan, trs, inld will have to pitch in.
ramana
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Sanjay, too many psy-ops going on everywhere.
Especially twitter I would put a low pass filter on.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sanjay »

Figured as much.
Mort Walker
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Mort Walker »

For NDA:

Group 1 north states: JK-2, HP-2, UK-5, PUN-5, Chandigarh-1
Group 2 plains states: HAR-7, DEL-6, UP-56, BIH-30, JAR-11
Group 3 west states: MH-32, Goa-1, GJ-22, RAJ-22, MP-26
Group 4 east states: CHT-8, OD-4, WB-3
Group 5: NE states: Assam-6, NE-4
Group 6: south states: KA-12, AP-18, TN-?, KL-0
Group 7: union territories: UT-5

288 without TN. Group 2 Modi has been hitting 70-75%. Group 3 has higher potential.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by fanne »

kvraghav, what you say is true, In India people will mostly vote on caste lines. That is how 543 IS ALSO DOING ITS CALCULATION, IT IS ASSIGNING PEOPLE BY CASTE, giving weights etc. What is different is, that castes that vote for Mayawati/Mulayam/Laloo are not voting for them big time this election. Like in other elections, castes that were supposed to vote BJP voted BSP, this time the reverse is happening. Modi caste is a factor for MBS and OBC, where as his hindutva credentials are important for FC. Also getting local chieftains has helped, Ramakant Yadav or Baba Ramdev (hate to put catse here but yadava), all that canvassing for BJP has made sure BJP is getting more yadavas vote than LY or MY. Similarly non jatav votes have migrated to BJP and many Jatavs as well, though she still has lion share of it. His pro governance model sits well with many younger voters compared to corrupt and incompetent Dynasty. This is a perfect storm is favor of BJP.
Mort Walker
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Mort Walker »

^^^Ture, but the good thing is that the under 30 group among all castes and religions has been going toward good governance. IMHO, caste will be an issue during elections for the next 10-15 years, after that those models will break down.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Raja Ram »

Ramana,
My interactions are indicating that there is an impact by Modi for sure. The backlash against Congress is severe for a variety of reasons not restricted to corruption alone, but short shirt to TN on power, water and SL issue. Those voters who prefer national parties will come to BJP this time. Local BJP leadership is not great, especially the state secy who is an Advani man I believe. the coalition by BJP helps. Jaya is feeling the heat. DMK has it's pockets, A Raja may surprise for example. The word is BJP may get at least 2 and a maximum of 5 on its own. Coalition may end up with 6 to 8 some say. Likely to be a watershed one for BJP in any case.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by pankajs »

Pawan Durani ‏@PawanDurani 24m

Aam Aadmi Party Firozabad unit led by Devesh Palia has announced their support for Samajwadi Party ! That is called Secular KrantiKaari !
Pawan Durani ‏@PawanDurani 37m

Salim is likely to lose his deposit in Gurgaon .... and this mungerilal was dreaming of becoming CM of Haryana.
Last edited by pankajs on 21 Apr 2014 20:36, edited 1 time in total.
Suraj
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Suraj »

Sumeet wrote:Anyways what worries me most is how much time will it take to reverse the economic downturn that UPA has inflicted on this country. (Perhaps Vina, Suraj and other more learned members in these matters can shed light). I hope there are some good results to show in 5 years. Also, after going through all this trouble I hope people are patient enough to understand that full revival & steady progress close to double digit growth may take more time than 1 BJP/NDA tenure. Modi doesn't carry a magic wand and economy is all about right decisions, policies and efficient process for implementation to achieve desired result. Policies takes time to fructify.
Despite the doom and gloom CRISIL story, I do not think reviving >7% growth will take more than about 2 years. This is because multiple news articles quote excess idle capacity in several sectors, ranging from steel output to port capacity. The capacity was added at the turn of the decade in expectation of continued growth, but that did not happen. Reviving manufacturing and industrial output is critical; it will drive services and agricultural growth.

A capable new administration would need to focus on immediately stimulating industrial output afresh, while ensuring that the hundreds of stalled projects are quickly cleared. In this regard, I think the bigger problem is not immediately reviving growth, but being able to sustain it, at least from an electoral perspective. The excess capacity will provide 2-3 years of additional output. Beyond that, new capacity wlil have to step in to sustain growth. A potential googly in this is that this is a La Nina year, with the potential for a weak monsoon. If so, it will be doubly critical to jumpstart industrial output to make up for weak agri growth.

Faltering growth going into the next election cycle would be politically dangerous, so the new government elected this year will have to focus on both using the available idle capacity AND clearing projects immediately so that they start coming online in 2-3 years to provide the excess capacity. It's not hard to do, but will require capable hands. There's only one PM candidate who's shown realistic ability to tackle matters so effectively.
ramana
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by ramana »

Raja Ram wrote:Ramana,
My interactions are indicating that there is an impact by Modi for sure. The backlash against Congress is severe for a variety of reasons not restricted to corruption alone, but short shirt to TN on power, water and SL issue. Those voters who prefer national parties will come to BJP this time. Local BJP leadership is not great, especially the state secy who is an Advani man I believe. the coalition by BJP helps. Jaya is feeling the heat. DMK has it's pockets, A Raja may surprise for example. The word is BJP may get at least 2 and a maximum of 5 on its own. Coalition may end up with 6 to 8 some say. Likely to be a watershed one for BJP in any case.

I credit it all to folks like you who made a decision after the 2009 fiasco and helped BJP build up where ever they are.


8)
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by kvraghav »

i truly hope what u ppl say turns true..i have had my heart breaks from young age. So i stick to my figures till may 16 but if a pure bjp sarkar comes..bengaluru bahega...
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by krishnan »

people are curious about modi and what he can do, but will that convert to votes, only time will tell.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Supratik »

I am in agreement with Suraj on the economy. A lot of low hanging fruits are there to revive growth.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Vikas »

Rahul Gandhi said Congress alone could ensure social justice, protect secular values and carry along all sections of people. He targeted the BJP saying the party pit Hindus against Muslims and work only to benefit few businessmen and industrialists.

"They want two India. One for poor and another for rich. We want one India where all people should enjoy the fruits of development," he said.

"Today, the clothes you wear, the wristwatch and footwear you use, all carry made in China label. I dream of a day when all these items carry made in Telangana and made in India labels. I also want to see a day when people in other countries use mobile phones and cameras, they carry made in Telangana and made in India stickers," he said.


Seriously! Made in Telangana label for internationally sold watches and phones. What is Telangana now.. A foreign Country ? And some people want this guy to be PM of India.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by chaanakya »

he is a certified Moron, Vikas bhai.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by krishnan »

http://www.rediff.com/news/column/ls-el ... 140421.htm
Around noon on Monday, Narendra Modi's speech in Etah was being screened, live, in a senior government officer's room in Lucknow.

Three journalists, including myself, and the officer were glued to the television screen.

I was the only non-Lucknow-ite present.

The way people in Uttar Pradesh view Modi and the Gujarat model is completely different from all that I hear on English television channels and what I read in New Delhi newspapers.


The gap between the two perceptions of Modi is the story of Election 2014.

An hour later, when I was chatting with Professor Arvind Mohan of Lucknow University, he addressed Modi as a "statesman" when compared to the current crop of political leaders.


People in Lucknow, Professor Mohan said, find Modi on one side and the other leaders "far, far behind." The professor is not a supporter of the Bharatiya Janata Party and does not give the BJP more than 35 to 40 out of UP's 80 Lok Sabha seats. "The election in UP," he says, "is, essentially, fought on caste and community parameters."


Professor Mohan and other political observers claim what is most shocking is the coming "collapse of the Congress in UP."

In the 2009 election, the Samajwadi Party won 23 seats, the Congress 21, the Bahujan Samaj Party 20. The BJP won just 10 Lok Sabha seats while Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal won five seats.


This time, as soon as you touch down in Lucknow, complete your round of quizzing drivers, hotel boys, local celebrities and political leaders and move off the road in villages and towns, you know the last election's results will go topsy-turvy this time.

The UP election has turned out to be Modi versus all. This is my third visit to UP in four weeks, but I have not located anyone who says the Congress will get seats in the double digits.


Most pundits count up to five or six, that includes Amethi and Rae Bareli, and then they say, "Congress toh kahin maidan main nahin (The Congress is nowhere in the arena)."


From 21 seats in 2009 to be downgraded to a hopeless perception in the eyes of voters is due to many reasons.

"The Congress," says Professor Mohan, "made a huge error in its strategy. It is shocking to see the Congress propagating Modi as India's prime minister. Their campaign here and elsewhere is running only on presenting arguments against Modi."

"The Congress is focusing on Modi and Modi is concentrating on floating voters. If you compare the past records of all Lok Sabha elections I find some eight to 15 percent of voters are undecided -- whom we call floating voters. These voters are not wedded to any caste and go by the marketing of political leaders or the current mood in the country," he adds.

While UP still votes on caste lines, Professor Mohan believes Modi has captured the floating voters through many ways including the social media where he moved in first to communicate with the young voters of UP.

Professor Sunil Pande, head of the statistics department at Lucknow University, says, "Our students have become very competitive. Even Dalit and OBC (Other Backward Classes) students are securing admissions in the general category."

Modi, Professor Pande feels, is popular among young people on the campus.

"Modi has taken the lead in the social media. The Congress took time to get into cyberspace. The problem with the Congress is that to project Rahul Gandhi after the election, they didn't project Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and kept the space open. While a submissive Dr Singh and his honest image worked in 2009, this time the space that was abandoned by keeping Singh out has been captured by Modi. Now, the Congress is attacking Modi and nothing makes Modi happier," he says.

Shalabh Mani Tripathi, a senior journalist, says, "If compared to the Congress, the BJP candidates are no better. In Basti constituency, Harish Dwivedi, who stood third in the assembly election, has been given the ticket for the Lok Sabha, and he is in the race to win because Modi is creating a wave."

Professor Mohan says it is shocking to see that Modi, who is in an Opposition party, setting the election agenda. "I fail to understand how the Congress can talk about anti-incumbency of a state (Gujarat) in a Lok Sabha election. Gujarat's issues can't become the plank in a Lok Sabha election. When J Jayalalithaa issues an advertisement comparing Tamil Nadu and Gujarat's figures, it is the biggest victory for Modi. The Congress and its leaders should have talked about their government and governance, effectively."

Some three years ago, the supporters of UP-based Union ministers like Jitin Prasada and R P N Singh were confident that if Modi was declared as the BJP's PM candidate, Congress leaders would have a "walkover" because the Hindu-Muslim polarisation would help them.

But now the entire party is struggling to stay afloat. The polarisation due to Modi's presence is not helping, and people do talk about the 2G scam and other UPA failures.

The argument that Modi would help the Congress win secular hearts has melted in no time as all non-BJP parties are finding that, "without a Hindu vote, the Muslim vote that comes to them due to communal polarisation is irrelevant," says Professor Mohan.

"On one hand, the Congress didn't declare a leader for the PM's post and then started saying Modi is a 'Hitler', a 'communal monster' etc... but in all references they kept Modi at the centre and not their own man. On the issue of governance, growth and development they could not counter Modi so they attacked his personality. People see thorough it."


"We don't see Modi focusing on Hindu votes," Professor Mohan says repeatedly. "Modi is selling vikas (development)."

In fact, like the Congress, the state BJP also doesn't have a strong local leader after Kalyan Singh. Like the Congress, the state BJP machinery is weak and full of envious leaders. There is factionalism and a casteist agenda which stunts the growth of both parties.

Still, after 2009, the Congress failed to capitalise on its success while Modi successfully established his communication link to the last polling booth.

"One man (Modi) is bringing in a change without his party's dedicated cadre," says Professor Mohan. "Just on the strength of attracting floating votes, the BJP is ahead of the others. Modi has not touched the 'structured castes' of UP society, but has gone for the kill in garnering the floating votes. UP's many voters think that, so far, the political parties saw UP as a 'vote bank', but Modi views it differently. They think UP's best bet is Modi."

Modi hype and marketing have helped him, but, more than that, it is the "aspiration" that Modi will change UP and bring in vikas that has helped him in a big way. Amit Shah, Modi's point man in UP, has said often that, "The image that Modi is a firm leader has given us the edge."


"People read criticism of the Gujarat model, but then they see the relative picture by looking around their existence," says Professor Mohan.

The failure of the Congress to win the hearts of even the Muslim victims of Muzaffarnagar riots exposes what's wrong with Rahul Gandhi's leadership. His statement that Pakistan's ISI was targeting the victims may have cost the party their trust. Rather, those who advise Gandhi are so brazen politically that they ask the UPA government to give reservations to the Jat community, perceived to be the aggressor by the Muslims of Uttar Pradesh.

Sharat Pradhan, Rediff.com's senior contributor, believes Modi has a clear edge over his rivals for two reasons. "Modi has no competitor. The sole contender in the form of Rahul Gandhi is just no match at all. Besides, Modi has been able to score by systematically shunning even a passing reference to controversial Hindutva issues."

"And by keeping off Hindutva, he has been able to win over that huge chunk of youth voters, who are neither impressed nor influenced by it. On the contrary, his rivals have been left non-plussed by this strategy," Sharat says.

The United Progressive Alliance's anti-incumbency, its politics of arrogance, lack of political understanding of post-riots polarisation, a crisis of credibility of the Gandhi family's leadership, and lack of enthusiasm in party cadres together may hand out a historic defeat to the Congress in Uttar Pradesh.
Sidd
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sidd »

Supratik wrote:I am in agreement with Suraj on the economy. A lot of low hanging fruits are there to revive growth.
The lowest hanging fruit is Modi taking oath as PM. That in itself should add a few percentage points to the GDP, sentiment plays a big part in driving economic activity/growth.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SaiK »

right thinking can lead to right activities! :)
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by johneeG »

VikasRaina wrote:
Rahul Gandhi said Congress alone could ensure social justice, protect secular values and carry along all sections of people. He targeted the BJP saying the party pit Hindus against Muslims and work only to benefit few businessmen and industrialists.

"They want two India. One for poor and another for rich. We want one India where all people should enjoy the fruits of development," he said.

"Today, the clothes you wear, the wristwatch and footwear you use, all carry made in China label. I dream of a day when all these items carry made in Telangana and made in India labels. I also want to see a day when people in other countries use mobile phones and cameras, they carry made in Telangana and made in India stickers," he said.


Seriously! Made in Telangana label for internationally sold watches and phones. What is Telangana now.. A foreign Country ? And some people want this guy to be PM of India.
He said they will give pakka houses to people. He said they will give this and that free. He said that they gave excellent rule for a decade and if elected will continue the same splendid job.

I think there was attempt to copy Modi's style. :P
----
Tubelight moment for me: whenever politicians say,"xyz place has a history of Hindhu-muslim bhaichara", it means that, that particular place is prone to Hindhu-muslim riots. :roll:

----
I think the biggest advantage for Bhaarath(and most other developing countries) is lack of infrastructure. That means the sarkaar can initiate the growth in the short run immediately by building infrastructure like roads, railways, ports and airports. That creates economic activity and jobs.

The so-called developed countries seem to have a saturation of infrastructure, so that route is closed for them.
Sidd
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Sidd »

SaiK wrote:right thinking can lead to right activities! :)
I feel like a mini celebrity with Saikji Trolling me :mrgreen: .
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Vamsee »

5Forty3 came up with new post.
Aal izz well.

The big picture:
By 12th Apr he projected 55 for NDA out of 110
On 17th Apr he is projecting 77 for NDA out of 122

So...Total for NDA up to this point is 132 :-)

=================
Edited

It is 75 for NDA on 17th Apr

So 75+55 = 130
======================
Also his total of NDA+UPA+Others is coming to 122 where as only 121 seats went to polls on 17th
Last edited by Vamsee on 21 Apr 2014 21:31, edited 1 time in total.
Mort Walker
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Mort Walker »

132/232 = ~56%

So, if we extrapolate 56% of 543 = ~304
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by KLP Dubey »

Looking good. Let's hope for sustained boothwork and turnout.

A few specifics from Patil, if it is allowed to post this:

- KA projection is 12/28 (little lower than desired but still OK)
- MH is 14/19 (awesome)
- RJ is 18/20 (expected). Also Jaswant Singh likely to be thrashed in Barmer. Deadwood falling.....
- OR is 3/11 (any non-zero result is welcome)
Last edited by KLP Dubey on 21 Apr 2014 21:48, edited 2 times in total.
SaiK
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SaiK »

Sidd, I troll for creating an eco-system of celebrities.;)
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by pankajs »

OT but related to post election economic recovery/growth

Rs 3.3 lakh crore invested in 113 projects
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 022177.cms
NEW DELHI: Approval to held-up infrastructure projects has begun to translate into actual investment and raised fresh hopes of reviving industrial demand and employment.

Initial numbers flowing into the cabinet secretariat suggest that nearly 90% of the investment in large projects, which were held up and have now been cleared, have materialized. An analysis of the 113 projects cleared by the Project Monitoring Group (PMG) housed in the cabinet secretariat shows that against investment intention of Rs 3.7 lakh crore, Rs 3.3 lakh crore has already been invested.

Last week, Anil Swarup, who heads the PMG, had said that so far, 152 mega projects with investment of close to Rs 5.3 lakh crore have been cleared. The group, which was set up to work with other ministries to remove last-mile hurdles, has received data for 113 projects, while information on the others is being collected. The PMG has received 438 proposals from projects worth Rs 1,000 crore or above, involving total investment of close to Rs 20 lakh crore that have been held up for want of approvals.

While there are several projects where investment is yet to begin, government officials said, in a majority of cases the project was held up due to a one or two clearances that have now been obtained. In fact in many cases, a part of the project went on stream within weeks. "In several cases, the investment is more than what was originally planned, indicating that there may be an element of cost overrun," the officials added.

Whatever be the reason, cash flowing into the held-up projects is expected to relieve promoters of financial pressure as they can repay bank loans and plan new investments and revive the demand for machinery and equipment. Several companies are facing financial crunch as the projects have been delayed for years. Although the immediate impact will be to boost sentiment, production of power or coal from the held-up projects will boost economic activity in the coming years, although most of the credit will go to the new government.

Officials pointed out that the pace of project clearances is going to pick up as 14 states have also decided to set up agencies such as PMG, which will also deal with smaller projects.
Included graphic seems to be on some of the proposed or pending power projects
Image
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Vamsee »

Mort Walker wrote:132/232 = ~56%

So, if we extrapolate 56% of 543 = ~304
Not sure if we can extrapolate. Some states will not give any seats to NDA and some states like Gujarat will give huge % of seats.

I wonder if we can project number of seats based on remaining states......
Suraj
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Suraj »

Sidd wrote:The lowest hanging fruit is Modi taking oath as PM. That in itself should add a few percentage points to the GDP, sentiment plays a big part in driving economic activity/growth.
Sure an actual election victory will generate new FII inflows and interest in inward investment. However, there's no substitute for actual policymaking on an urgent basis. I'm extremely skeptical of sentiment-driven growth. The UPA rode on that for years, waving their hands about, and once the music stopped and the water receded, it was visible that the emperor has no clothes on.

A new administration will have to sit down right away and clear the huge stack of files pending at the commerce , environmental and finance ministry. Clear a whole lot of them in one go as the equivalent of a defibrillator shot. The next government really has no 100 day honeymoon period or anything like that. May 16th is 2 weeks from the start of monsoon season. If that's delayed due to the La Nina effect, they'll be in trouble within less than a month. It's imperative that positive sentiment be backed up by a set of policy actions immediately, preferably before June, so as to absorb any downward sentiment from a weak monsoon.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by pankajs »

BTW .. on the power production side .. with 20,000 MW idle capacity lacking coal .. I think coal prices internationally have come down. So importing coal may not be that expensive after-all only additional Forex outflows will result.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Mort Walker »

Vamsee wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:132/232 = ~56%

So, if we extrapolate 56% of 543 = ~304
Not sure if we can extrapolate. Some states will not give any seats to NDA and some states like Gujarat will give huge % of seats.

I wonder if we can project number of seats based on remaining states......
True. GUJ, MH & MP will give a big haul, but only big states where NDA isn't huge is AP & TN. Outside of TN, only relatively small states will not give the NDA many seats.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Vamsee »

*If* we assume that 5forty3 projection( 130 for NDA) are correct, then NDA needs 143 seats from the remaining 311 (~46% strike rate).
These are the following seats which are yet to go for polls.

UP -- 59
AP -- 42
TN -- 39
WB --38
Bih -- 27
Guj -- 26
MH -- 19
Pun --13
MP --10
CG -- 7
Assam -- 6
Raj -- 5
Uttarakhand -- 5
HP -- 4
J&K -- 4
Jharkhand -- 4
Dadra & Nagar haveli - 1
Daman & Diu -- 1
Puducherry -- 1
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Vamsee »

From the above list we can easily say that BJP will win 22-23 seats from Gujarat. So we are looking at NDA requiring another 120 seats from the rest.
This shows how important it is for BJP to sweep UP & Bihar. Together there are 86 seats on offer in those 2 seats. If there is any place where we need Modi wave, it is these 2 states.
Prem Kumar
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Prem Kumar »

Raja Ram wrote:Ramana,
My interactions are indicating that there is an impact by Modi for sure. The backlash against Congress is severe for a variety of reasons not restricted to corruption alone, but short shirt to TN on power, water and SL issue. Those voters who prefer national parties will come to BJP this time. Local BJP leadership is not great, especially the state secy who is an Advani man I believe. the coalition by BJP helps. Jaya is feeling the heat. DMK has it's pockets, A Raja may surprise for example. The word is BJP may get at least 2 and a maximum of 5 on its own. Coalition may end up with 6 to 8 some say. Likely to be a watershed one for BJP in any case.
Raja Ram Sir: good to hear from you & thanks a million for your ground work! Do you also get the feeling that S. Chennai & Coimbatore will go the BJP way? I had an interesting conversation with a small-business-owner in Coimbatore who is not voting for NDA but thinks BJP will win there
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Supratik »

2/3rds of 232 is 154. So they are 25 short of 2/3rds majority at this point (if you go by 5forty3).
Vamsee
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Vamsee »

I am looking at only pre-poll NDA getting full majority. I am aware that post poll TRS etc can join.
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AP - Depends on performance of TDP
WB & TN - I would prefer not to count too many seats from these 2 states
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SaiK »

An AIADMK with 35 seats would have enormous blackmailing capacity. An AIADMK with 20-25 seats and a DMK with say 10 seats - and these are numbers plucked out of the air - would allow Modi to play off one Tamil Nadu party against the other. This too has Jayalalitha worried; it is not the election she had dreamt of.
http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/e ... odi-510709
Prem Kumar
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Prem Kumar »

VikasRaina wrote:Bhai Log, Let Sh. Narendra Modi become the PM first and then we can day dream as much as we want. We still don't know what magic EVM will play or how outsiders or D4 will try to sabotage NaMo's chances of becoming PM. We still haven't completed the winning run yet.
One more Godhra or 26/11 or serial bomb blasts may not be so far away in future.

As per BRF prophesies, any new COAS in TSP has to show his manhood be manufacturing some terrorist event in India and the new Shareef hasn't still shown his manhood to domestic constituency.
Given how Modi handled Patna bomb blasts & came out ahead, C-system + ISI might be wary of any more attacks at this stage. Similarly, rioting in UP might be counter-productive because Muslims are also pissed at SP after M'nagar. Rioting in other areas are possible to consolidate Muslim votes
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by rgsrini »

^^Kanyakumari is a good bet for BJP, where Pon Radhakrishnan is competing against the Koodunkulam-fame, anti-national, AAPtard Udaykumar. Not sure if there is enough of a wave in S.Chennai (L Ganesan) and Coimbatore though. If TN gives more than 1 to BJP and more than 3 or 4 to the combine, we can be sure that Modi has made a difference here. Amma is sure to win 25+, 3 or 4 to BJP combine, Cong and DMK will share the rest, with Congi most probably scoring a 0.

Rajaram sir, what are the constituencies (out of the eight) you think BJP will win, that will take the score to 2 to 5 for BJP alone.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Atri »

Worried abt MP's low voter turnout.

Campaign in dreamcity at its pinnacle. Chance of 5/6 in Mumbai. :-) voting has to cross 60%. If 65% we wont be waiting for 16th may as far as mumbai candidates are concerned
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