Geopolitical thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21234
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Prem »

Islamist skin to be saved with Indian formula ( Ramana Theory Infiltration in academic circle) :wink:

Rethinking Islamic Reform: Finding Tough Answers the Hard Way
Ironically, the problem here isn't just idealism or naïveté, but more that the conversation isn't exactly a new one. Since at least the mid 19th century, Muslim modernist reformers such as Sir Seyyed Ahmad Khan in India (d. 1898) and activist pan-Islamists like Jamal al-Din al-Afghani (d. 1898) have promoted free thinking and reason in the development of a viable Islam for the modern age.
The reasons why the exhausted attempts at Islamic reform have not altered the cultural logic of Muslim society writ large isn't because the religion is inherently incompatible with the modern era or that its religious elites are hiding their heads in the sand.
It is because the route of reform in Islam has until now has been incorrectly targeted, ill-conceived, and often tainted with imperialist pretensions. Thankfully, Oxford's conversation between Tariq Ramadan and Hamza Yusuf's is one of the first major steps taken by a western institution to move beyond the stagnant dichotomies that have dominated the perennial "clash of civilizations" issue.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/abbas-bar ... 90433.html
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60278
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by ramana »

What about Ibn Khaldun's dictat that all reform is already there? And how legitimate is a Western Uty promoting dialog? If it comes it has to come from Al Azhar, Cairo for starters.

BTW, Both Afghani and Ahmed were not progressive. Jamaluddin Afghani inspired Maududi. wed iscussed all this long ago.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamaluddin_Afghani

Watch my words. What will happen is a Euro/Western Islam just a sRoam Christianity was shaped by the guys around Constantine.
--------------------------------

Can Jihadis Be Rehabilitated?
Radical Islam

by Katherine Seifert
Middle East Quarterly
Spring 2010, pp. 21-30

http://www.meforum.org/2660/can-jihadis ... abilitated
abhishek_sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9664
Joined: 19 Nov 2009 03:27

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Whoa There, Rising Powers!

Brazil and Turkey's diplomatic forays may be annoying, but they also signal a huge shift in the way the world works. Is Obama paying attention?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... ing_powers
Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21537
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Philip »

How sick can the CIA get? What is its credibility too worldwide with exposes ike this.It undermines any moral authority that the US uses in crises especially when it gets militarily involved.In Iraq,the entire raison d'etre for going to war,Saddam's (non-existant) WMDs,was found to be based upon fraudlulent intel,especially British PM at the time Tony Blair's lies. IN current crises like the NoKo-SoKo naval spat,the "evidence" that the SoKo corvette was sunk by a NoKo vessel based upon only the reports from western investigators,is open to doubt.The CIA could've easily fabricated the "evidence" supposedly found.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/ma ... smear-plot

CIA's secret Iraq weapon revealed: a Saddam gay sex tapeBizarre US plots included exploding cigars to kill Fidel Castro and fake video of Osama bin Laden's campfire drinking.

EXcerpt:
In their time, America's secret agencies have tried some outlandish schemes to attack their country's enemies, including, most famously, an attempt to do away with Cuba's Fidel Castro by using an exploding cigar.

But in a scenario more the preserve of careless Hollywood starlets such as Paris Hilton and Kim Kardashian, the CIA appears to have plotted to undermine Saddam Hussein with a gay sex tape.

According to the Washington Post's security blog, some of America's spooks believed that shooting a fake video of Saddam cavorting with a teenage boy might destabilise his regime in the runup to the US-led invasion in 2003. "It would look like it was taken by a hidden camera. Very grainy, like it was a secret videotaping of a sex session," the Washington Post quoted one former CIA official as saying.

Nor was the Saddam sex tape the only idea floating around the more bizarre corners of the CIA's Iraq Operations Group. Other ploys involved interrupting Iraqi television with a false newsflash that would announce Saddam was handing over power to his hated and feared son Uday. The presumed idea was to shock the Iraqi people into rising up against their leaders and thus make the invasion a lot easier.

Perhaps thankfully, the tape and fake news broadcast were never made and the Post reported that top CIA brass repeatedly rejected the ideas.

But that did not stop a CIA video being shot of a fake Osama bin Laden sitting around a camp fire, drinking booze and boasting of his own gay conquests.

The video apparently used some of the CIA's "darker skinned" employees as extras playing the terror chief's henchmen. It does not seem to have been released.

The Post said an anonymous US official had declined to confirm or deny the accounts. "If these ideas were ever floated by anyone at any time, they clearly didn't go anywhere," the official said.

Such tactics are hardly the first time the US agencies have stretched their imaginations. A book entitled 638 Ways to Kill Castro detailed the many ways the Cuban leader had been targeted over the decades.

One of the lesser known was a plan to dispatch Castro by exploiting his fascination for scuba-diving. A batch of colourful molluscs would be rigged with explosives in the hope that he would be attracted to them while swimming underwater.
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Pranav »

^^^ N. Korea is known to be crazy. Even though the US' past record is checkered, N. Koreans may well have sunk the ship.
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Pranav »

Goldman Sachs Reveals it Shorted Gulf of Mexico

NEW YORK (The Borowitz Report) - In what is looming as another public relations predicament for Goldman Sachs, the banking giant admitted today that it made "a substantial financial bet against the Gulf of Mexico" one day before the sinking of an oil rig in that body of water.

The new revelations came to light after government investigators turned up new emails from Goldman employee Fabrice "Fabulous Fab" Tourre in which he bragged to a girlfriend that the firm was taking a "big short" position on the Gulf.

"One oil rig goes down and we're going to be rolling in dough," Mr. Tourre wrote in one email. "Suck it, fishies and birdies!"


The news about Goldman's bet against the Gulf comes on the heels of embarrassing revelations that the firm had taken a short position on Lindsay Lohan's acting career.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andy-boro ... 58774.html
ALSO SEE: Criminal Negligence: Despite Knowing It Had a Damaged Blowout Preventer, BP STILL Cut Corners By Removing the Single Most Important Safety Measure - http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/05/ ... owout.html

One wonders if the profits from Goldman Sachs short plus any insurance payment is greater than the amount BP will be liable to pay as damages.
svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14222
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by svinayak »

http://in.news.yahoo.com/columnist/niti ... must-swing

BY NITIN PAI

Why India Must Swing

Nitin Pai demystifies the anarchy of international relations

May 25, 2010

"[The] very fact of China’s rising economic and military power," Robert Kaplan concludes in an essay in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, "will exacerbate US-Chinese tensions in the years ahead. To paraphrase the political scientist John Mearsheimer, the United States, the hegemon of the Western Hemisphere, will try to prevent China from becoming the hegemon of much of the Eastern Hemisphere. This could be the signal drama of the age."

Duh!

If Kaplan had written this any later, he would be like the earnest police inspector who arrives in the penultimate scene of a Hindi movie, with handcuffs for the bad guy and a cliche for the hero.

Part due to the wishfulness of the rhetoric surrounding Barack Obama’s campaign and part due to the economic crisis it sunk into, it became fashionable in the United States to ignore geopolitical realities, and instead engage in a fresh bout of fantasising about China. Influenced by intellectuals such as Zbigniew Brzezinski it became fashionable to believe in the existence of a tidy bipolar world where the United States and China, the G-2, would sit together and shape the twenty-first century. Tidy and familiar as this world may be to Cold War-era strategists, it does not even begin to mirror reality: it took, for instance, no less than a Group of 20 countries to co-ordinate economic policies to combat the global recession.

While the United States is caught in its Brzezinskian bipolar disorder, China continues to do what it has been doing for the better part of the last two decades-systematically preparing itself for an adversarial relationship with the United States. After the 1990 Gulf War, the Chinese leadership became acutely aware of how far behind the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) actually was. In his book on China’s military modernisation, David Shambaugh, a professor at George Washington University, documents how, since Norman Schwarzkopf stormed the Iraqi desert, the PLA has methodically focused its doctrines, capabilities and strategies with its eye on the United States.

Instead of blindly emulating its rival, Beijing has sought to gain asymmetric advantage: for instance, if the US Navy has a formidable surface fleet, the PLA Navy (PLAN) went in for the submarines that neutralise it. If the United States has the capacity to project power globally, China has nurtured proxies like Pakistan and North Korea to tie it down both indirectly and inexpensively. If the United States outguns it in traditional areas of warfare, China has sought to gain an advantage in cyberspace and outer space. The waters of the Indian Ocean therefore, are merely one of the several theatres where China and the United States will challenge each other.

To be sure, the United States military establishment is aware, concerned and preparing for a confrontational relationship with China. However, even at the best of times Washington-like New Delhi-finds numerous domestic vectors pulling in different directions to be able to fashion a focused strategy. Worse, at this moment, the Obama administration is not only confused by the dissonance between its beliefs and reality. It is also constrained by a weak economy, fiscal pressures and a mountain of debt that it owes to its geopolitical rival.

What does this mean for India?

First, despite irreconcilable differences in the way India and China view international relations, the high Himalayas prevented large-scale military conflict between the two civilisations for nearly two millennia. While the Himalayas are no longer the physical barriers they used to be, the presence of nuclear weapons in both countries makes war unattractive and unrewarding. The India-China contest has, instead, shifted to other domains: in and around the Indian Ocean, in cyberspace, and for access to resources and markets.

Second, given the relationship with China, it is in India’s interests for the United States to remain the predominant power in the world. Yet, despite ongoing attempts, it is uncertain if the two countries can achieve collaborative "win-win" solutions to common challenges. The United States, after all, continues to be the principal benefactor of a state that has long conducted a proxy war against India. Sure, there is an increasing convergence of long-term interests but the political processes in both the United States and India often produce contradictory outcomes. Don’t be too surprised if US troops withdraw from Afghanistan in 2011, leaving Kabul to the Taliban under appropriate obfuscations. Don’t be surprised too if New Delhi purchases multi-role fighter aircraft from Sweden, ignoring the strategic aspect of the deal. In New Delhi as in Washington, it is not strategic sense, but political sense that counts.

If strategic sense were to prevail in Washington, the United States would do everything to woo India into a tight alliance. There was a period during the much-maligned George W Bush administration that it appeared that the United States had chosen just such a course. No longer-given its bipolar fantasies, the Obama administration has substantially abandoned the project.

The implication for India is that despite an alignment of interests, it must not always side with the United States. It must swing.

To paraphrase Henry Kissinger, India’s options toward the United States and China must always be greater than their options toward each other. It serves "our purposes best if we maintained closer relations with each side than they did with each other." Isn’t this-by design or by default-what we’re already doing? Not really. That’s because until New Delhi demonstrates that it can deliver pain for one and pleasure for the other, it won’t be seen as swinging. It will be mistaken for sleep-walking.

Consider two contemporary issues. Despite India’s effort to support his Af-Pak strategy, President Obama has remained insensitive to India’s interests, going so far as to issue a directive "that concluded that India must make resolving its tensions with Pakistan a priority for progress to be made on US goals in the region." What has India done to show that its support cannot be taken for granted?

Earlier this month, Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh remarked that "we bailed the Chinese out of many a difficult situations (sic). Chinese know India was absolutely essential for the fact that China did not get isolated at Copenhagen." Well, in that case, he swung too early. It would have been better to bail the Chinese out after they had been sufficiently isolated.

The reason why India is unable to get the swinging right is perhaps because our political leaders and much of the strategic establishment are wedded to their pet dogmas. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, for instance, is committed to improving relations with the United States. And it was Mr Ramesh, after all, who popularised-if not coined-that ghastly word, "Chindia". Now turn on your television or open the op-ed page of a newspaper, and you’ll spot their opposite numbers, forever opposed to the United States or China or both.


Everyone, it seems, is locked in their favourite positions. Are you?

Nitin Pai is founder & fellow for geopolitics at the Takshashila Institution and editor of Pragati - The Indian National Interest Review, a publication on strategic affairs, public policy and governance. He blogs at The Acorn and is active on Twitter too.
akashganga
BRFite
Posts: 374
Joined: 17 Mar 2010 04:12

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by akashganga »

Trinidad Elects Its First Female Prime Minister, a Hindu
http://www.hinduismtoday.com/modules/xp ... ahoo!+Mail
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Pranav »

Signs of change emanating within China: Dalai Lama

Shoumojit Banerjee

Patna: “There have been many incidents in the recent past which are indicative of strong change within the People's Republic of China,” said the Dalai Lama on Thursday.

In Patna to inaugurate the Buddha Smriti park set up to commemorate the 2550th year of Lord Buddha's ‘Mahaparinirvana,' the Tibetan religious leader noted that there were strong signs of socio-political change emanating from within the country.

Alluding to China's revised policy on minorities to substantiate his theory of changing political currents within the country, the Dalai Lama further stated that during the last two years, more than 200 Chinese writers had authored almost a thousand articles which were supportive and sympathetic to the question of Tibetan autonomy.

“Historically, China was a nation with strong Buddhist affiliations,” he said, speaking to journalists after the event. “There are more than 200 million Chinese Buddhists, which is more than the total number of Buddhists residing in India,” he noted, remarking that “even leaders of the Kuomintang (the Chinese Nationalist Party), including Chiang Kai-shek, had had Buddhist relatives.”


http://www.hindu.com/2010/05/28/stories ... 681600.htm
While India is in danger of regressing to colonized status, it is good to see signs that China is going back to its Confucian-Buddhist roots,
abhishek_sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9664
Joined: 19 Nov 2009 03:27

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Are other countries' national security documents more interesting than America's?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... gy_session
abhishek_sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9664
Joined: 19 Nov 2009 03:27

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by abhishek_sharma »

UN in Barack Obama's National Security Strategy

http://turtlebay.foreignpolicy.com/post ... _paragraph

But the United Nations isn't even mentioned in sections dealing with global issues like climate change or the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. And it sometimes refers to the United Nations in the way one might talk about a wonderful old relative who has passed his prime but doesn't deserve to be thrown out into the cold, and may even still have some useful contributions to make. To wit:

"Today, we need to be clear eyed about the strengths and shortcomings of international institutions that were developed to deal with the challenges of an earlier times and the shortage of political well that has at times stymied the enforcement of international norms. Yet it would be destructive to both American national security and global security if the United States used the emergence of new challenges and the shortcomings of the international system as a reason to walk away from it."

This is precisely the sort of tone that may have uneasy U.N. officials wondering, ‘who mentioned walking away from the international system?'
Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21234
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Prem »

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/c ... 168520.htm
text size: TTChina and Kazakhstan: A Two-Way Street
Chinese goods and investment may help boost living standards and democracy in the Central Asian nation. Plus, the Kazakhs tend to prefer China to Russia ( All this while Indian Elites sleep )

[quote][Some unofficial estimates put the number of legal and illegal Chinese migrants at 300,000 to 500,000. Despite such fears, it looks likely that the political maneuvering space for China vis-a-vis Kazakhstan and other Central Asian states will remain constrained for some time. Any attempt by China – perhaps in concert with Russia – significantly to step up its political sway in the region would be met by widespread resistance from the public. At any rate, China has not displayed any aggressive aspirations in the former Soviet republics, unlike Russia in recent years.
BALANCE OF FORCES
Whether or not this was their intention, the actions of the Western powers and of China in Kazakhstan complement each other, at the same time creating a counterbalance to the intensified growth of Russian influence. If not for this counterweight, Moscow's policies would likely contribute to destabilizing the situation throughout Central Asia, not just in Kazakhstan alone. Finding a balancing point between these external influences – the West (simply put, the NATO states and Japan), China, and Russia – is the optimal path for Kazakhstan to satisfy its own international interests and an important condition for the effective development of democracy in the country.
/quote]
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Gerard »

abhishek_sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9664
Joined: 19 Nov 2009 03:27

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Snoozing through the National Security Strategy

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/201 ... y_strategy
abhishek_sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9664
Joined: 19 Nov 2009 03:27

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Pranav »

Pranav wrote:Goldman Sachs Reveals it Shorted Gulf of Mexico


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andy-boro ... 58774.html
Apparently that story is satire ... but this is not:
ALSO SEE: Criminal Negligence: Despite Knowing It Had a Damaged Blowout Preventer, BP STILL Cut Corners By Removing the Single Most Important Safety Measure - http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/05/ ... owout.html
Also: Prominent Oil Industry Insider: "There's Another Leak, Much Bigger, 5 to 6 Miles Away" - http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/05/ ... heres.html
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60278
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by ramana »

abhishek_sharma wrote:The 10 Black Swans of summer

http://rothkopf.foreignpolicy.com/posts ... _of_summer
Shouldn't we have list of atleast five black swans for Indian point of view?
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Pranav »

The New State Capitalists
What they learn from China is that you can force the markets to serve the state.

Chinese state officials watched Russia’s post-Soviet upheaval and learned some important lessons. They accepted that if they failed to generate prosperity, their days were numbered, but that the state can’t simply order up economic growth. Only by releasing the entrepreneurial energies of its vast population could China thrive and the party survive. The Communist Party needed to embrace market capitalism while protecting its monopoly on power by ensuring that the state controlled the lion’s share of the wealth that markets generate.

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/05/28/the- ... lists.html
This is a very important point. Given the general corruptibility of human nature, whenever there is a disparity between the wealth of people that are part of the power-structure, and that of external adversaries, the state is vulnerable to subversion.

This may not be the ideal solution (danger of misallocation of capital) - but nevertheless a deep and valid point from the Chinese.
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Pranav »

In Japan, U.S. Losing Diplomatic Ground to China - http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/24/world ... japan.html

S.Korea, Japan and China to speed up trade accord - http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... NFS9E8J50A

Image
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Pranav »

^^^ The interesting thing is that these developments in NE Asia are taking place despite the Cheonan sinking incident.

Meanwhile the Cheonan incident remains murky. Apparently the N Korean strongman Kim Jong-il has been able to convince the Chinese that N Korea was not involved. While Govt of S Korea has accused the N Koreans, there are also dissenting voices:

Former Editor of Japan Times newspaper - "Did an American Mine Sink South Korean Ship?" - http://newamericamedia.org/2010/05/did- ... n-ship.php

From Russia Today: “Attack against South Korean ship looks like false flag operation” - http://rt.com/Top_News/2010-05-29/chona ... china.html

One cannot say anything definitive at this point. N Korean leadership is not known for its sanity, either.
Last edited by Pranav on 31 May 2010 06:24, edited 2 times in total.
svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14222
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by svinayak »

http://rt.com/Top_News/2010-05-29/bric- ... urkey.html
BRIC to expand multipolar world with addition of Turkey
Published 29 May, 2010, 02:13
Edited 30 May, 2010, 04:40

As the US fights with Brazil over Iran, the emerging powers of the BRIC group may be embracing Turkey.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has criticized Brazil's involvement in diplomatic negotiations with Iran and Turkey, stating that the United States and Brazil have serious differences concerning Iran's nuclear program.


This follows the escalating debate over Iran’s nuclear program and the recent Brazil-brokered Iran-Turkey uranium fuel swap deal. This deal is nearly identical to previous proposals put forward by the US and other Western states. The deal is seen by many in the international community as a confidence-building measure moving forward with Iran and its nuclear agenda.

On April 20, US President Barack Obama sent a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula de Silva embracing Brazil’s efforts to seek a deal between Turkey and Iran. However, almost immediately after the deal was reached the Obama administration began to push for new sanctions against Iran

Obama not only betrayed himself, but he stepped on the back of two of his closest allies, Brazil and Turkey,” said Pepe Escobar, a journalist in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

While the Obama administration was focused on another round of sanctions against Iran, Brazil and Turkey worked successfully to secure a non-confrontation diplomatic solution.

“Obviously for the Washington elites, they are not happy to see two middle-ranking powers who pose as honest brokers in the Middle East and achieve results. This is what we mean by a new multi-polar world where diplomacy rules and not confrontation,” said Escobar.

The US is dangerously close to losing credibility, said Escobar. Arguing that when the United States attempts to pass a fourth round of sanctions against Iran, Brazil, Turkey Russia and China will rebuke them.

“Leave us some time, let’s see if Iran fulfills the obligations of the Tehran declaration. This means a few months at least and then if Iran breaks the rules that they are accepting than we might consider talking about sanctions again,” said Escobar.

Offering a deal that was widely accepted as the way forward, closing it and then immediately calling for sanctions is not the right way forward.

“This is not diplomacy. This is intimidation,” said Escobar.

The US is snubbing the world’s regional powers, not just Brazil by pressing them to follow the US directly.

“The new counter-power to American unilateral foreign policy is the G20 and the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China. And soon they are going to be BRICT because yesterday [Turkish Prime Mininster Recep Tayyip] Erdogan and Lulu were discussing in Brazilian that Turkey soon is going to be the fifth member of the BRIC countries,” said Escobar.
This is a huge blow to the American prestige and credibility. As to who is in power in Washington, it seems it is neither Obama nor Clinton. In the words of president Ahmadinejad of Iran, America has become a captive nation in the hands of certain people in the world who will stop at nothing to prevent any rapprochement between the United States and Iran. This is not the statement of a mad man, the constant propaganda of the dis-reputed American media notwithstanding.
abhishek_sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9664
Joined: 19 Nov 2009 03:27

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Democracy, Security, and Regionalism in Asia
Daniel Lynch

http://www.nbr.org/publications/asia_po ... acyBRE.pdf
Pranav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5280
Joined: 06 Apr 2009 13:23

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Pranav »

Fast moving developments in the NE Asian theater - this is basically about the OKinawa base and the US maintaining its influence in NE Asia.

SDP's departure to cause house of Hatoyama to fall? - http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/i ... 325300.htm

Meanwhile in Europe, the Germans have tried to curb speculation by banning trading of derivatives. Brits are urging the Greeks to come out of the Euro and default on their loans to their German creditors. See Greece urged to give up euro - http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 140270.ece .

So there is some financial tension between the Germans and the UK-US elites. See also Geithner Brings a Grimm Fairytale - http://www.cnbc.com/id/37396374
Sanjay M
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4892
Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

SKorea Fears Pyongyang's Kargil-ism

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 08216.html

I, for one, welcome this new era of peninsular brinksmanship, because it only serves to highlight China's role as the serpent which brought the forbidden nuclear fruit into the garden. We suffer the same problem with Pak, which the US continues to support. Now let's see how the US deals with China's other proxy, NKorea.

I'm thinking that if SKorea had continued down the road of assuming command of local forces, then it would fall under greater pressure to show restraint. By delaying the handover of command to themselves, they wish to retain a free hand in responding to Pyongyang's provocations. This would mean a greater potential for conflict escalation, once the first shot has been fired.
Sanjay M
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4892
Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

Seoul Decides to Go the Kaangress Route:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pac ... an-sinking

It seems that South Korea's rulers have decided that the lives of mere soldiers aren't worth getting upset about, and that it's much better to appease the aggressor while trying to sound very wise and restrained.

I'm waiting for the South Korean leaders to say, "vee vill not bow to terrorism!"

North Korea needs to start training some fidayeen squads, so that they can have a field day while killing lots of foreign tourists.
Carl_T
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2533
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 02:37
Location: anandasya sagare

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Carl_T »

To be fair, there's really not a lot South Korea can do. Remember Seoul is within range of North Korean artillery.
Sanjay M
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4892
Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

But that only means that NKorea has a free pass to do whatever it wants.

There's nothing keeping them from finding another weak point to strike at the time of their choosing.

They can do a Kargil against SKorea anytime the mood strikes them.
Sanku
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12526
Joined: 23 Aug 2007 15:57
Location: Naaahhhh

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanku »

SKorea is as much a viable state as South Vietnam was. Its Unkil's muscle holding the hordes at bay.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60278
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by ramana »

A new book making the rounds

The End of Influence
Brief overview in FP journal.

Google books:

End of Influence
svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14222
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by svinayak »

^^^^
The culture created by America and exported by its movies is not gone; it's not even going. It has simply gone universal and is now open to a vastly expanded range of contributors. This is very likely to be a good thing for American and world culture, an opening to new ideas, talents, and energies. And America's ambient culture is being enriched by foreign imports ranging from soccer to sushi, not to mention energetic Ph.D.'s in material and biological sciences.

America is sure to remain a leader in cultural power, but there is a difference between being a cultural leader and an easy, almost un-self-conscious cultural dominance. Our research universities are the envy -- and model -- for the world. So too are our high-tech, biotech, and nanotech genre Silicon Valley-type firms, with their multinational, multiracial, and monocultural workforces of the bright, ambitious, educated, and driven. And there is also a powerful emergent American cultural force best represented by Barack and Michelle Obama: America might yet develop new meganarratives to succeed the world of modernity that will seize the world's hearts, fears, longings, and energies. But no matter how creative its creative people become, as in the realms of economic and political power, America is unlikely to remain the cultural hegemon, the overwhelmingly dominant source of cultural memes.
ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5405
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by ShauryaT »

Flotillas and the Wars of Public Opinion
A logical Israeli response would have been avoiding falling into the provocation trap and suffering the political repercussions the Turkish NGO was trying to trigger. Instead, the Israelis decided to make a show of force. The Israelis appear to have reasoned that backing down would demonstrate weakness and encourage further flotillas to Gaza, unraveling the Israeli position vis-à-vis Hamas. In this thinking, a violent interception was a superior strategy to accommodation regardless of political consequences. Thus, the Israelis accepted the bait and were provoked.
Compare with India's reaction in the past, what are the lessons here?
ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5405
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by ShauryaT »

Costs of War: National Security Tug-of-War
Obama’s national security strategy lays out a vision of US global power based on a strong, modern economy at home and multilateralism abroad. But other forces in the US body politic are pushing in a different direction, Shaun Waterman writes for ISN Security Watch.
Sanku
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12526
Joined: 23 Aug 2007 15:57
Location: Naaahhhh

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanku »

Thanks for the great posts by intellibriefs ShauyraT. They were rather good.
Sanjay M
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4892
Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

ShauryaT wrote:Flotillas and the Wars of Public Opinion
A logical Israeli response would have been avoiding falling into the provocation trap and suffering the political repercussions the Turkish NGO was trying to trigger. Instead, the Israelis decided to make a show of force. The Israelis appear to have reasoned that backing down would demonstrate weakness and encourage further flotillas to Gaza, unraveling the Israeli position vis-à-vis Hamas. In this thinking, a violent interception was a superior strategy to accommodation regardless of political consequences. Thus, the Israelis accepted the bait and were provoked.
Compare with India's reaction in the past, what are the lessons here?
Anyone can comment in hindsight. Perhaps it would have been better to simply foul their propellers, and wait them out for awhile, allowing a few to disembark at a time, until only the hardcores were left. In the meantime they could have scrutinized them for the opportune moment to seize the ship.

It's Israel's fault for continuing to trust Turkey, which will only maneuver against them in the long run.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60278
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by ramana »

Need to keep an eye on the flotilla thing lest inspire the TSP to have a land flotilla packed with fellow travelers: WKK, Western eminent persons etc., over the LOC into Cashmere.
Sanjay M
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4892
Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

prad wrote:the distinction between south and north was done only in recent times. it's an anomaly that has yet to be rectified after the fall of Soviet communism.

South has the economic dynamism. the North has the masses. together, united, Korea can be an economic powerhouse in the Pacific, able to challenge both traditional Japanese domination and the nascent Chinese ascension.
South Korea population: 50 million http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_korea
North Korea population: 24 million http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea

I don't see how North Korea has the masses. Sure, they put more people under arms, but at a great economic cost.

If I were South Korea, I would take the offensive, rather than wait to be hit again and again - and I wouldn't do it with loudspeakers.
The desperation of the rickety regime should easily create conditions for rebellion.
Sure, the North keeps an iron hand, but a carefully orchestrated underground resistance can cause a regime to shoot itself in the foot. Fortunately, North Korea has plenty of shoreline which can be infiltrated. No matter how dense their patrols and mines are, there should be ways to penetrate it. North can't provoke all-out war with the South over pinprick attacks, and can only continue with the same ambush attacks they've already been undertaking. No sense in the South holding back due to that, because those attacks will be launched by the North anyway, no matter what.

Seoul should even consider clandestinely organizing Northern refugees inside Chinese territory, since there are many of them there. They should take the secret war to Chinese soil using Korean refugees, and that will step up pressure on China to be a better mediator.
Sanjay M
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4892
Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Sanjay M »

ramana wrote:Need to keep an eye on the flotilla thing lest inspire the TSP to have a land flotilla packed with fellow travelers: WKK, Western eminent persons etc., over the LOC into Cashmere.
India's case is well-known, and India is not blockading J&K, which it regards as its own proper territory. Israel doesn't even regard Gaza as its own, but just as a Bantustan holding area for Palestinians.

They should have helped to evacuate Gazans wanting to escape Hamas rule. They could pack them on ships and organize a flotilla to Eastern Cyprus, and let Turkey deal with them. Let's see how peaceably the Palestinians coexist under Turkish guard.
Carl_T
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2533
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 02:37
Location: anandasya sagare

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by Carl_T »

The Muzzlim world simply doesn't care for Kashmir the way they cry for Palestinians. India is not the evil Empire to them the way US and Israel are and Russia used to be. I think we inflate our importance when it comes to the Muzzlim world. :)

Everytime you see the words Palestine and Kashmir in a sentence, author is Paki. Even Hamas that supports Kashmir separatism had Paki penetration. Has Hezbollah ever supported K separatism? (I'm asking).
abhishek_sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9664
Joined: 19 Nov 2009 03:27

Re: Geopolitical thread

Post by abhishek_sharma »

How Do You Say "Frenemy" in Turkish?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... in_Turkish
Post Reply