India Border Watch: Security and Operations

[Bheeshma]

Pakis are getting royally f**cked at the LOC and IB. I hope this continues till we dismantle them completely in PoK.

[sudeepj]

Neelam valley being plastered again.

[Khalsa]

As someone wiser than me once asked...
once we effing obliterate their posts... we can start moving Westwards. Inch by Inch ... 826 m by 826 m

[svinayak]

http://www.dawn.com/news/1298130/9-kill ... s-near-loc

There were unconfirmed reports about some people having been injured, but we are awaiting confirmation," a police official told Dawn from MadarpurAJK Legislative Assembly Speaker Shah Ghulam Qadir who has returned from Neelum valley said the situation was critical all along the LoC."I call upon the government of Pakistan to raise the unprovoked shelling of civilian populations as an issue in the UN Security Council to build pressure on India," he told journalists in Muzaffarabad.

He said since Neelum valley was highly vulnerable to Indian guns, "a great trial had begun for its nearly 250,000 residents."He claimed that Indian troops were not even allowing transportation of injured persons to Muzaffarabad.

He should call upon the government of Pakistan to surrender and start the govt to govt relationship to start talking on the cross border terrorism.

[vnms]

^^ what "Tatta Pani sector of district Kotli was also receiving shells." thats truly breaking their balls

Saar, can you please explain/elaborate?

[sanjaykumar]

Pakis are getting royally f**cked at the LOC and IB.

Pakistan is fukht, to use the Urdu.

[g.sarkar]

No, they are not fukhed or even phucked. If you have a cockroach infestation in your house, you need to give davai. But one round is just not enough, as they will come back, you have to repeat the process every week for a month or so till they are all gone and there no more eggs left to hatch. Pakistanis multiply like roaches, and they value their jehadis less than roaches. Just one application is not going to help to solve the matter. So, more surgical strikes across the LOC is needed. It has been done before and it can be done again. Remember Hari Singh Nalwa anyone? We need patience and audacity, and Modiji has shown that he has both qualities. His lieutenants such as Dovalji and Jaitleyji will keep the frog pot boiling and long term fornication will go on.
Gautam

[Bheeshma]

True. Pakis at the border and LOC are phuckt but the cockroach hive is in pakjab and that is where the strikes have to be felt.

[JTull]

It’s not anti-national: Time to assess impact of surgical strikes

Is it time to take a deep and sombre look at what the surgical strikes along the Line of Control on September 29 have achieved?

The question is not ‘anti-national’. The routine killing and mutilation of soldiers, in fact, necessitates a review and not only because three more army jawans were killed on Tuesday and bodies of two soldiers were mutilated in less than a month. The question is relevant because India and Pakistan appear to be locked in a bloody tit-for-tat with no exit route in sight.

The Northern Command that tweeted the news of the killings also said, “Retribution will be heavy for this cowardly act.” Similarly, a few days after Sepoy Mandeep Singh was killed and his body mutilated on October 28, the Northern Command made its ‘retribution’ public on the microblogging site, saying, “Four Pak posts destroyed in massive fire assault in Keran Sector. Heavy casualties inflicted.”

Addressing the media after the strikes, Director General, Military Operations, had said, “The operations were basically focused to ensure that these terrorists do not succeed in their design of infiltration and carrying out destruction and endangering the lives of citizens of our country…During these counter terrorist operations, significant casualties have been caused to the terrorists and those who are trying to support them…”

As many as 13 army jawans were killed along the LoC since September 29 and if the aim of the surgical strikes was to rein in the infiltrators, then that certainly is not the case. The strikes, in fact, have drastically altered the rules of the game for the soldier. The ceasefire agreement of 2003 is in tatters and the daily dose of mortar and artillery fire have the jawans on their toes. The author visited the LoC recently and found that the soldiers are now not just looking for infiltrating terrorists. They are also guarding against sniper attacks from Pakistani Rangers and the battle action teams (BATs) comprising jihadis from the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammad. In the unequal proxy war that has become sharp and intense, leaves have been curtailed and commanding officers are up all night and in constant touch with their company commanders. The next attack can come at any time, any place.

It would not be wrong to argue that the surgical strikes — which helped the government score political brownie points domestically — were a tactical, not a strategic move. Says strategic expert Ajai Sahni, “We slapped Pakistan and told them that they deserved the slap, but what’s next? The government has not gone beyond tactical responses. The political and diplomatic endgame was not worked out. The soldier is asking: but we are still doing trade with Pakistan.’’

Taking political ownership of the strikes has in fact upped the ante and unlike past winters, officers commanding units along the LoC know they’re in for a turbulent one.

Should the government then have conducted the strikes and not gone public with the announcement? Says former army chief General Bikram Singh, who was in office when the first beheading took place in 2013, “Since the senior political leadership had announced retribution after the Uri attack, it was important to place the retaliatory surgical strikes in the public domain. It was important to give a strong message not just to Pakistan of our resolve, but even to the international community that Pakistan had to be dealt with differently. Having avenged Uri, it may be prudent now to leave the tactical operations to the local commanders, unless the national intent, as part of a strategy, is to go beyond the tactical arena.”

The government clearly needs to ponder over Chinese General and philosopher Sun Tzu’s wise words: Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.

[JTull]

#SurgicalStrike and why it was different from other Army operations

The situation after the ‘surgical strikes’ on the intervening night of September 28-29 is surreal and bizarre. India conducted deliberate trans-Line of Control (LOC) Special Forces (SF) operations, one to three km deep, to destroy about seven terrorist ‘launch pads’ on a 250-km arch from Kel to Bhimber, inflicting "significant" casualties. India also declared that it had done so through a formal briefing by the Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) -- a first apart from the three wars of 1947-48,1965 and 1971. Even in 1999, India maintained the ‘sanctity’ of the LOC.

Pakistan, which is extremely sensitive to any unusual movement of the Indian Army even within India let alone across the LOC, categorically denied that any trans-LOC operations had taken place. Director General Inter Services Public Relations, Lieutenant General Asim Bajwa, said only heavy trans-LOC firing had taken place in which two Pakistani soldiers were killed in action. One Indian Army soldier belonging to 37 Rashtriya Rifles (RR) who "inadvertently strayed across the LOC" (according to the Indian Army) was "apprehended" as stated by the Pakistan Army.

Pakistan went to the extent of taking domestic and foreign correspondents to the "supposed" launch pads to prove its point. Despite the DGMO, Indian Army, having given only a terse statement in standard military language bereft of any details, the Indian media went berserk speculating how the operations were conducted and the immense damage inflicted. Pakistan responded by ridiculing the claims and asked for evidence to be furnished. The international media reported both the Indian "claims" and Pakistani "doubts".

Indian public and politicians celebrated the benchmark 'surgical strikes' and raised the jingoistic rhetoric to a new high. Posters (allegedly put up by the ruling political party at the Centre) highlighting the retribution inflicted on Pakistan appeared in poll-bound Uttar Pradesh. In response, while unequivocally supporting the surgical strikes, the opposition parties highlighted that similar strikes have been carried out covertly in the past under the policy of 'strategic restraint', and further put the ruling party in a bind by asking it to release the evidence to counter Pakistan's malicious propaganda and international scepticism.

If that was not enough, since September 28/29, three terrorist attacks and a couple of infiltration attempts have taken place in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).

So, what does one make of this situation?

It is Information Warfare in full play by the strategic decision makers and Armed Forces on both sides. The media, which revels in scoops, ‘inside information’ and free access, had no choice but to report the official version and speculate. On either side, military spokesmen have been economical with words and followed a planned script. The media, including the social media and the public at large, took the bait, hook line and sinker. The resultant confusion notwithstanding, the fallout is that both sides have retained enough manoeuvre space to pursue their long-term strategy.

I had earlier written two columns: "How to solve a problem like Pakistan" on August 2 and "How should India respond to 18/9" on September 21. The former focussed on likely long-term strategies of India and Pakistan in generic terms and the latter in more specific terms after the Uri attack. I recommend that the readers scan these pieces while reading this column.

Pakistan caught off guard

Pakistan, owing to its birth on religious grounds, the deprivation of J&K including the control of river waters and its dismemberment in 1971 considers India as an adversary state. It follows an unambiguous India-centric National Security Strategy backed by military, political and public consensus. Its essential features are:

. Wage a deniable Fourth Generation War (4GW) in J&K and hinterland of India exploiting its fault lines.
. Quid pro quo response to Indian threat below threshold of war in the form of surgical air/drone/missile strikes and Special Forces (SF) operations.
. Control India-sponsored 4GW (as Pakistan perceives it) in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the hinterland, and expose it diplomatically.
. Avoid a conventional war and if it is forced upon it, stalemate India with conventional capability, ‘irrational’ nuclear brinkmanship, and actual use of tactical nuclear weapons if required.
. Neutralise India’s influence in Afghanistan by facilitating Taliban’s return to power.
. Back the above strategy with diplomacy and special relationship with China, Islamic countries and the US.

Is Pakistan's conduct after the surgical strikes in consonance with this strategy? The answer is an unambiguous yes.

Pakistan is used to the Indian Army's undeclared retributive, trans-LOC operations. It noted with concern the symbolism and import of India's declared trans-LOC ‘surgical strikes’ on terrorist launch pads. It realised that India was targeting the domestic and international constituency, and also aimed at forcing an irrational response from Pakistan to show that it controls and sponsors the ‘non-state actors’.

Pakistan was taken by surprise. It was focussing on defending its posts and military installations after 18/9. But India struck at unlikely targets. No Indian soldier was killed, no body was left behind. No prisoner of war was taken except the RR soldier who was either part of the support operations or simply a victim of the fog of war. India had also showcased its world-class capability to meticulously execute Special Forces (SF) operations.

Casualties suffered were substantial -- 30 to 50 terrorists had been killed (author's assumption). Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) also noted the anger of the leadership of its proxies, the Lashkar- e-Taiba (LET), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM ) and Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) .

Keeping the above in mind, the Pakistan Army re-calibrated its strategy. Bodies of terrorists, all of whom were from Punjab, were removed in haste to be buried later in nondescript villages in Punjab. The local population, which is either ideologically committed or dependent upon the Pakistan Army for jobs, was taken into confidence. The surgical strikes were out rightly denied to prevent India from taking any domestic and international advantage.

Pakistan ridiculed the entire operation and termed it a ‘hoax’. The same line was followed by the Pakistan media and public. To add insult to the injury, it orchestrated three terrorist strikes in J&K and stepped up infiltration, daring India to respond again. In a nutshell, Pakistan has adhered to its strategy and retained all strategic options as highlighted above. It has prevented the situation from escalating and diffused the post-18/9 stand-off by not immediately resorting to a quid pro quo. It perceives that it has called India's bluff and denied it any domestic or international strategic advantage, and has put it on the back foot to provide evidence of the strikes.

Be that as it may, Pakistan from now on will have to take note of the change in India's strategy -- that India will not hesitate to raise the ante by pre-emptively or reactively countering Pakistan's 4GW in India, in a calibrated manner with punitive operations across the LOC or the International Boundary -- a watershed moment, a paradigm shift in strategy!

India changes the game

In my column dated September 21, I had highlighted India's options after the 18/9 terrorist attack at Uri:

. Punitive operations below the threshold of war focussed on targets related to prosecution of 4GW by Pakistan.
. Wage a counter 4GW in Pakistan exploiting its fault lines.
. Wage a pre-emptive J&K-centric limited war to compel Pakistan to stop 4GW in J&K and hinterland of India.

I had also highlighted that the first option is a short-term option and the latter two are long-term options. I further emphasised that carrying out punitive operations below the threshold of war was a strategic compulsion to assuage public rage and for the sake of national morale and had to be carried out at the earliest but not later than 10 days.

On the intervening night of September 28/29, exactly 11 days after 18/9, the Indian Army SF struck across the LOC on six/seven terrorist launch pads, destroyed the terrorist infrastructure and inflicted “significant casualties” on terrorists. The operation was meticulously planned and professionally executed. All SF teams de-inducted safely and suffered only one SF soldier who was wounded owing to a mine blast.

Needless to mention that to enable the SF operation, supporting operations were conducted by troops manning the LOC in the form firing and physical containment using patrols and Ghatak Platoons. Having read in detail about all major SF operations over the last 100 years, I have no hesitation in saying that this operation had professionalism written over each and every aspect -- political aim, political and military decision making, intelligence, secrecy, choice of targets, conduct and the official statement.

War or use of force as an instrument of policy is always in pursuit of a political aim. India's long-term political aim is simple — prevent Pakistan from interfering in internal affairs of India through a 4GW and if it does so, maintain good relations for common good. A war of retribution, if it does not compel the adversary to accept peace on your terms, is a war without an aim and serves no purpose. The political aims of the surgical strikes was, however, limited in scope:

. To send a clear signal to the international community that the threshold of India's patience had been reached to warrant the exercising of hard options and that the onus of exerting diplomatic pressure on Pakistan was on the international community.
. To send a clear signal to Pakistan with respect to the change in India's strategy and that India will respond to the 4GW in a calibrated manner with punitive operations across the LOC/IB.
. Retribution on Pakistan for terrorist attack on 18/9 with targets restricted to terrorists and their infrastructure.
. Force Pakistan to respond in an irrational manner and raise the ante to inflict more retribution.
. Demonstrate India's capability for world-class SF operations.
. Assuage public anger and uplift national morale.
. Reap domestic political dividend.

Since 1990, a fair number of proactive or reactive operations have been conducted across the LOC with or without government sanction. However, keeping in view the stated government policy of 'strategic restraint', all these operations remained classified. “Alea iacta est -- the die is cast," said Julius Cesar on crossing the Rubicon.

The import of this operation is not in the number of enemy casualties and the infrastructure destroyed or the depth and frontage of the operation or the type of weapons used. It lies in the declaration of India's intent for dealing with the 4GW perpetrated by Pakistan in the future.

Therein also lies the burden of expectations from the public and the media, which would want a punitive response to every 4GW action of Pakistan. By all counts, this operation so far appears to have been a standalone and one-off operation as a signal of strategic intent and for retribution, and not part of a strategy for progressive escalation to a limited war. This operation was also contingent upon Pakistan's outrage and irrational response wherein more retribution would have been unleashed on him. However, Pakistan did not oblige.

So, what has India achieved?

. A clear signal of strategic intent to Pakistan that India will respond to the 4GW by punitive operations across the LOC/IB.
. A signal to the international community that India's threshold of patience has been crossed and the onus is on them to exert economic and political pressure on Pakistan.
. A demonstration of Indian military prowess and ability to conduct world-class SF operations.
. Assuaged public anger and uplifted national morale.
. Demonstrated political will to take hard decisions.

Baton passes from Indian Army to politicians

As opposed to the brilliant SF operation, the political management of the aftermath was an unmitigated disaster. Jingoistic political and public emotions were allowed to run wild. No effort was made to rein in the more-than-compliant media.

To the contrary, it was egged on by the credible and not so credible leaks to raise war hysteria knowing fully well that sooner than later, it will emerge that it was a one-off operation to signal a strategic intent. A junior minister commented on the use of helicopters leading to more speculation. The Raksha Mantri, of all the people, said the Indian Army like Hanuman had awakened to rediscover its prowess. Without any complementary mobilisation of the Armed Forces, the evacuation of villages in Punjab up to 10 km from the international border, made the action politically suspect.

In such situations, only the PM or the RM should make a terse and clear political statement and leave it at that. Political capital was already on the table. Now it is lost in the shrillness of election rhetoric. Pakistan's smart response and our political frenzy have diluted the gains of this watershed SF operation.

Prognosis

So, are we back to business as usual? The answer is yes, but with a rider that now our response to 4GW will be in the form of calibrated trans LOC/IB operations. These will continue to be at a “time, place, and scale of own choosing” and calibrated according to the situation.

Pakistan's strategy will see no change. In fact, it perceives the events from September 18 to September 29 as a tactical victory. The probabilities of a limited war that may alter the current impasse are very low. Neither India nor Pakistan has so far shown any inclination to further raise the ante. We are likely to see a quiet period before Pakistan responds in the form of a major terrorist strike. However, in J&K, Pakistan will continue with business as usual, daring India to respond again.

For India, it has gained precious time to formalise its National Security Strategy and initiate long overdue structural and organisational reforms in the Armed Forces, Central Armed Police Forces and the State Police to cater for internal and external threats.

Last but not the least, it was heartening to note the political, public and media support for the Armed Forces. I only hope that it translates into removing the anomalies of the Seventh Pay Commission.

[svinayak]

It’s not anti-national: Time to assess impact of surgical strikes


It would not be wrong to argue that the surgical strikes — which helped the government score political brownie points domestically — were a tactical, not a strategic move. Says strategic expert Ajai Sahni, “We slapped Pakistan and told them that they deserved the slap, but what’s next? The government has not gone beyond tactical responses. The political and diplomatic endgame was not worked out. The soldier is asking: but we are still doing trade with Pakistan.’’

Taking political ownership of the strikes has in fact upped the ante and unlike past winters, officers commanding units along the LoC know they’re in for a turbulent one.

Should the government then have conducted the strikes and not gone public with the announcement? Says former army chief General Bikram Singh, who was in office when the first beheading took place in 2013, “Since the senior political leadership had announced retribution after the Uri attack, it was important to place the retaliatory surgical strikes in the public domain.
The government clearly needs to ponder over Chinese General and philosopher Sun Tzu’s wise words: Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.

This will go international and Pak will be politically isolated.
To break from that isolation Pak will go to war. India will test Pak read lines and Pak desire to break its isolation.
The author does not seem to understand the geo politics which is now with nuclear states. This is first in the world.

[Lalmohan]

pak has been isolated since the US pulled out of Afghanistan
the west has lost interest in Pakistan
so the question is, if the pak army continues to attack on the IB and LOC, then GOI had better be prepared to take more decisive steps

[Khalsa]

How do you shame the shameless?

You don't. You increase their rage, and cause them to self-destruct.

Well said

[svinayak]

pak has been isolated since the US pulled out of Afghanistan
the west has lost interest in Pakistan
so the question is, if the pak army continues to attack on the IB and LOC, then GOI had better be prepared to take more decisive steps

State level Political isolation is different.
Pak is now isolated with reference to Kashmir also. Cross border terrorism is the global image of Pak state.

So this justifies Indian defensive attack on Pak border.'
It is due to international development and total collapse of the support to Pak state by major countries allowed India with more options.

Pak has only few choices and one of them is to stop the terrorism and come back to talks.

[Aditya G]

General panag in his article should have mentioned following gains from surgical strike:

1. Cost extracted from Pakistan. It was a punitive strike.

2. Prevention of more attacks due to loss of jehadis prior to infiltration.

3. Spectre of nuclear war busted. This is a massive long term gain.

4. Trans-LC ops have been granted an air of legitimacy, previously untouchable since 1999

5. Accomplished successful and rare link up of political, bureaucratic, diplomatic and military establishment in India to achieve tangible gains.

6. Brought back PoK into public conscious. Eg: Col rathore said "we did not cross border as PoK is also own territory".

[Aditya G]

I believe Ms Baweja's PoV heavily draws from her concern for troops on the front line. Her analysis hence deserves scrutiny and not rejection;

- CFVs were on for a number of years. Intensity may he higher this year because of our own response. Linking losses on LoC to SS is not enough as you should also consider uri losses and COIN losses in balance.

- in larger scheme of things Pakistani reaction is still tactical while SS were strategic in nature.

- all citizens including journalists have to steel up and accept loss of soldiers lives.

- LeT and JeM will do what they do regardless. Kinetic actions from our side ensures somebody is paying a price for it. Unless you are extract costs there will not be any incentive on other side to seek peace. DGMO calling up begging for firing to stop means our strategy has worked.

It’s not anti-national: Time to assess impact of surgical strikes

Is it time to take a deep and sombre look at what the surgical strikes along the Line of Control on September 29 have achieved?

The question is not ‘anti-national’. The routine killing and mutilation of soldiers, in fact, necessitates a review and not only because three more army jawans were killed on Tuesday and bodies of two soldiers were mutilated in less than a month. The question is relevant because India and Pakistan appear to be locked in a bloody tit-for-tat with no exit route in sight.

The Northern Command that tweeted the news of the killings also said, “Retribution will be heavy for this cowardly act.” Similarly, a few days after Sepoy Mandeep Singh was killed and his body mutilated on October 28, the Northern Command made its ‘retribution’ public on the microblogging site, saying, “Four Pak posts destroyed in massive fire assault in Keran Sector. Heavy casualties inflicted.”

Addressing the media after the strikes, Director General, Military Operations, had said, “The operations were basically focused to ensure that these terrorists do not succeed in their design of infiltration and carrying out destruction and endangering the lives of citizens of our country…During these counter terrorist operations, significant casualties have been caused to the terrorists and those who are trying to support them…”

As many as 13 army jawans were killed along the LoC since September 29 and if the aim of the surgical strikes was to rein in the infiltrators, then that certainly is not the case. The strikes, in fact, have drastically altered the rules of the game for the soldier. The ceasefire agreement of 2003 is in tatters and the daily dose of mortar and artillery fire have the jawans on their toes. The author visited the LoC recently and found that the soldiers are now not just looking for infiltrating terrorists. They are also guarding against sniper attacks from Pakistani Rangers and the battle action teams (BATs) comprising jihadis from the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammad. In the unequal proxy war that has become sharp and intense, leaves have been curtailed and commanding officers are up all night and in constant touch with their company commanders. The next attack can come at any time, any place.

It would not be wrong to argue that the surgical strikes — which helped the government score political brownie points domestically — were a tactical, not a strategic move. Says strategic expert Ajai Sahni, “We slapped Pakistan and told them that they deserved the slap, but what’s next? The government has not gone beyond tactical responses. The political and diplomatic endgame was not worked out. The soldier is asking: but we are still doing trade with Pakistan.’’

Taking political ownership of the strikes has in fact upped the ante and unlike past winters, officers commanding units along the LoC know they’re in for a turbulent one.

Should the government then have conducted the strikes and not gone public with the announcement? Says former army chief General Bikram Singh, who was in office when the first beheading took place in 2013, “Since the senior political leadership had announced retribution after the Uri attack, it was important to place the retaliatory surgical strikes in the public domain. It was important to give a strong message not just to Pakistan of our resolve, but even to the international community that Pakistan had to be dealt with differently. Having avenged Uri, it may be prudent now to leave the tactical operations to the local commanders, unless the national intent, as part of a strategy, is to go beyond the tactical arena.”

The government clearly needs to ponder over Chinese General and philosopher Sun Tzu’s wise words: Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.

[prahaar]

Pak has only few choices and one of them is to stop the terrorism and come back to talks.

That is the easiest but the most difficult choice for them. If one thinks like GOI it would have happened in 1948 but if one thinks like PA, it never was an option.

[JTull]

I'm getting an impression that India would be mistaken to relax with this change of guard in Pakistan. They may attempt to create a panic during the current uncertainty of demonetisation. If I were them, I'd look at this period as an opportunity.

[srin]

While retaliation, fire assault and even surgical strike is all fine, it still leaves the Pak Army with deniability. I mean, this is an army which declined to receive its own dead in Kargil war. This is a force which still thinks it won the wars against India.

We need to hurt their ech-and-dee so well and so visibly that it should become a laughing stock. In this thread or on the surgical strike thread, I remember someone mentioning that we should establish a DMZ on the Pak side of the LoC. Now, that would be perfect.

[Aditya G]

http://www.dawn.com/news/1298504

RAJA Gulfam is a brave man indeed. How else would you describe a person who has the guts to keep driving a bus even after receiving injuries from shells fired by Indian troops from across the Line of Control (LoC) and taking over 20 passengers out of harm’s way.

These are the first impressions that I gather about 28-year-old Raja Gulfam while speaking to him in the surgical ward of Muzaffarabad’s Shaikh Khalifa bin Zayed al Nahayan Hospital on Thursday, a day after the minibus he drove came under Indian attack in the upper belt of the Neelum valley. The attack left nine passengers dead and 11 others wounded, the driver among them.

He was among seven injured persons brought to Muzaffarabad late on Wednesday night for treatment. Three of them were admitted in the hospital’s surgical ward and the rest in the intensive care unit.

The shelling is not something unfamiliar to the nearly 250,000 residents of the 200-kilometre long cedar-forested valley, which is home to lush green meadows, mighty glaciers, singing waterfalls, rare wildlife, emerald green lakes and the icy Neelum river and its tributaries.

For years together, it bore the brunt of skirmishes and artillery duels between Indian and Pakistani troops across the LoC until a truce agreement in Nov 2003 brought relief to its inhabitants.

Although in the beginning people were sceptical about the permanence of the truce, hopes started building up later that the days of trials and tribulations were over and that they would no more fall victim to the bullets of Indian soldiers.

Over the past 13 years, the ceasefire agreement has seen violations a number of times, causing even civilian casualties.

Just keep in mind that before the truce, movement on the Neelum valley’s main artery was largely at the mercy of Indian troops. In most places, the Neelum river serves as a de facto border. Indian troops sitting atop lofty mountains were — and are — in a position to cripple life in Azad Kashmir.

But while other areas received shells over the past 13 years in spite of the truce agreement, the Neelum valley remained an exception. The Indians never directly hit its civilian population even during days of heightened tensions. {Our civility is seemingly our biggest weakness. Just 2 days of mortars on Neelum valley and their DGMO called up for truce}

It was perhaps this fact that made Gulfam throw caution to the wind and bring the 25-seat minibus onto the road from the town of Sharda for a routine journey to Rawalpindi via Muzaffarabad on Wednesday morning. He was apparently unmindful of the shelling of a tourist rest house in his valley by Indian troops on Oct 29.

On Wednesday, shelling started at 3am — two hours before Gulfam started his journey. When the bus reached a spot known as Kanari, almost 100 kilometres from Muzaffarabad, it came under attack, catching all on board off guard.

When I asked him why he brought his minibus on the main road amid shelling, he replied: “Nobody stopped us... This shelling has been taking place for quite some time now, but they (the two armies) would target each other’s posts and not the public… We had no idea that we will be hit.”

Then he recollected the tragic episode: “First the bus was hit with small arms. Perhaps they wanted to kill the driver to disable the vehicle. A bullet narrowly missed my head.

“Many passengers were also hit by the small arms fire, but then a rocket (shell) tore apart (a portion of) roof and wreaked havoc inside.”

A splinter pierced his neck, making blood ooze from his wound. There were groans of pain, with some passengers shouting at him to stop the vehicle.

“But I did not pay heed to anyone. I placed one hand on my wound to stop the flow of blood and took control of the vehicle with the other, driving it almost one kilometre to the relative safety of a bazaar.”

The recollection ended at that point. “Then I fainted… I regained consciousness in Athmuqam hospital,” was all Gulfan remembered.

He attributed the narrow escape to the presence of “some saintly person on board”.

“The Indians had left no stone unturned to burn us to death.”

There were at least three women and some children on the bus, but fortunately all of them remained unhurt.

Labourer Fazal Hussain, 55, who has seen ferocious shelling before 2003, rated Wednesday’s attack as the worst.

Everyone at the hospital is all praise for Gulfam’s bravery. But now fear seems to have overtaken him.

“The Neelum valley is no more a place to live. I will prefer to stay in Muzaffarabad instead of resuming my job there,” says the father of three children, aged between four and seven years.

Standing nearby, Ashraf Lone, who has come to look after patients from Dawarian, tries to lift his spirits.

“The valley is our birthplace, our love and our identity. Why would we quit it. Let’s hope sanity prevails across the border and this mindless violence comes to an end for the good of the entire region.”

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2016

[Aditya G]

Infiltration update

http://www.dailyexcelsior.com/army-foil ... rg-nowgam/

...

Army said that militants are desperate to infiltrate as they have suffered heavy losses this year at the hands of security forces by killing around 130 of them this year which is a record in recent years. Last year, 97 militants were killed.
However, this year has also shown increased infiltration and, as per the official figures, 83 militants have infiltrated so far when the figure for whole of last year was 35.

...

[Aditya G]

Paki posts destroyed on 23rd Nov:





"Khyber" post in Tatta Paani-

[Aditya G]

These two separate visuals show a strike on a Pak bunker.

IA attacks the heavily built up post from multiple directions using RCLs at fairly close range. Back blast from the shots give away. The best part is, that the attacks are clearly conducted from across the LoC that too in clear daylight. The flag is hoisted on the post so it should be occupied.

[svinayak]

I'm getting an impression that India would be mistaken to relax with this change of guard in Pakistan. They may attempt to create a panic during the current uncertainty of demonetisation. If I were them, I'd look at this period as an opportunity.

This is the beginning of the change in Pak. Sustained pressure on the state and military will result in change in the political landscape in Pak

[svinayak]

Pak has only few choices and one of them is to stop the terrorism and come back to talks.

That is the easiest but the most difficult choice for them. If one thinks like GOI it would have happened in 1948 but if one thinks like PA, it never was an option.

In 1948 the Pak attacked because it was supported by British. India was young nation and the leadership was oblivious of Major powers using the neighboring countries against India.

This video explains all. Pak themselves have put themselves in a corner.
India just took advantage of it for Indian interest.

[Aditya G]

Gen Hasnain;

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/commen ... 27382.html

EVEN at the best of times the Indian public remains blissfully ignorant of what happens at the Line of Control (LoC) on a daily basis. Now when the worry is about changing old currency notes for new or catering for the next meal because of lack of new currency, the LoC is far from the mind. It's at times like these that reminders need to be given in the public space on the situation at the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir, where a virtual state of war exists. Public knowledge of this is essential if the correct perception about the state of national security has to be held and not simply taken for granted. The situation at the LoC can dangerously spiral out of control.

Firstly, it is important to know just what the LoC is. It is the imaginary line demarcated on maps and ground where the two armies of India and Pakistan were located when the ceasefire of 1948 came into being after the first India-Pakistan Conflict, in 1947-48. Then called the Ceasefire Line (CFL), it got demarcated under the Suchetgarh Agreement of 1972, which followed the Shimla Agreement. It differs from the international border (IB), which is the legal uncontentious boundary between two states. The IB is manned by police forces on a non-tactical basis to prevent unauthorised trans-border movement, smuggling and other such illegal activity. The LoC is, however, different. For one, it is manned by the armies on both sides in eye-ball contact.

Although demarcated and signed on maps, there are contentious disputes about the alignment and many an attempt is made to wrest tactically important ground in own favour by eviction of the adversary, by intimidation or simply occupation if not strongly held. The well-known notion which exists is, “Grabbers Keepers”. It manifests in identification of vulnerabilities, a much higher state of alert at these and constant monitoring. In between the LoC and the IB is an awkward phenomenon called the Jammu IB; an alignment which India considers final and uncontentious but Pakistan perceives it as not finalised. It terms it the “Working Boundary”, a term we do not share in vocabulary. It remains manned by the Central Armed Police Forces, the BSF in this case and the Rangers a paramilitary force of Pakistan.

The LoC may still have been a relatively safe place to operate in the 1980s of the 20th Century. The 1990s brought with them the havoc of infiltration which had to be countered all the time, night and day. The task of the Army then became twofold; first maintaining the sanctity of the LoC (no negative change) in alignment and state and second, preventing infiltration. When translated, the first meant holding posts strongly and dominating the gaps by fire and observation; the second meant physical prevention of any unauthorised movement across the nooks and crannies of the broken and extremely dangerous terrain. As Pakistan ratcheted up the infiltration of terrorists and warlike material, the strength of terrorists on the Indian side increased manifold as did the number of tiers of such manned alignments, ably supported by technology and physical obstacles. However, the public needs to know a couple of things about this deployment and the inherent threats that are prevalent at almost all times.

The LoC/Jammu IB provide the scope for sending messages to different stakeholders. When activated, they keep the international community concerned about potentially destabilising exchanges between nuclear armed neighbours. Whenever Pakistan finds it difficult to sufficiently activate the Valley hinterland either due to low strength of terrorists or insufficient energy among the separatist cadres, it resorts to activating the LoC due to all the above reasons.

The actions on the LoC and Jammu IB currently underway involve major breaches of ceasefire, which means regular fire assaults, using lethal weapons. These also affect the local population, thus drawing more attention. The LoC in the Kupwara sector, which is densely backed with troops in depth, has lesser density along the LoC itself. This is because it is most prone to infiltration through Keran, Machil and the Northern Gallis. The terrain forces larger gaps and isolation of posts. In the desire to cover maximum ground to prevent infiltration and ensure sanctity of the LoC, units here maintain smaller strength in a larger number of posts. This is what the Pakistan army and the terror groups are targeting. Patrolling by the Indian Army is essential. Thus patrols and smaller posts along the LoC become vulnerable when Pakistan's Border Action Teams (BAT) concentrate to create a local superiority. Intelligence on the broad presence of BATs is usually available, it is the pegging to a narrow location which remains the challenge. The recent casualties inflicted on our troops by BATs is a result of this. The Pakistan army does not have to deploy with a large number of posts as it does not have to execute counter-infiltration nor cater for raids by the Indian Army since India is not infiltrating terrorists to Pakistani territory. However, the Indian Army has struck back quite often in the past and after the recent surgical strikes that fear exists in the Pakistan Army. The devious game has been boldly played by the Indian Army too, giving away some and gaining more. For us, the LoC being quiet is advantageous, quite the opposite of what Pakistan desires.

The machismo on the part of the Pakistan Army is a slow and inevitable way of admitting that the surgical strikes in end September 2016 did take place and they hurt. The Pakistani actions at the LoC now underway are obviously with a view to regain face. This will continue for some time, until the new Pakistan Army Chief settles down. The Indian Army’s surgical strikes have given hopes to the Indian public that each time it will be the same; that is impossible and imprudent. Yet, a LoC-experienced commander will tell you that the options are limitless; from planned fire assaults to trans-LoC strikes dispersed over time and space. That is what the Indian Army will do as an appropriate farewell for Raheel Sharif.

The writer, a former General Officer Commanding of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps, is now a Fellow with the Delhi Policy Group.

[manjgu]

i didnt understand one thing...why did we stop if we were hurting them so much? does a Paki phone call have so much impact? did we call them and tell them not to send terrorists across LOC? i think we should be plastering them 24*7 till atleast Raheel retires.. ( the Pakistani Napoleon who partially conquered on his own provinces !!). I would like to hear recording of the phone call... cant it be leaked?

[Aditya G]

Quoting a Paki news source here without link. Has some interesting details.

http://www.thenewstribe.com

By Web Desk - November 20, 2016

ISLAMABAD: A Battalion of Mujahid Force took revenge from Indian Army for martyring 7 Pakistan Army’s soldiers, TheNewsTribe.com reported.

According to the information available to TheNewsTribe, Mujahid Force Battalion of Pakistan Army killed 21 Indian soldiers and destroyed 5 bunkers of Indian Army at Line of Control (LoC) in Iftikharabad sector, near Bhimber, Azad Kashmir.

The footage pasted below is received from ground sources. You can hear the chants of Mujahid Force’s soldiers as they destroy the bunkers of Indian forces.

This is the same Mujahid Force which gunned down the Indian Spy Drone entering Pakistan territory. the drone had intruded 60 meters inside Pakistan borders.

Recent activity took place in Iftikharabad sector, near Bhimber, LoC, Azad Kashmir.

Pakistan Army killed 21 Indian soldiers, destroyed five bunkers at LOC by Wishtehar

The Mujahid Force Regiment, raised on September 9, 1963, is generally referred to as ‘AK Rangers’ by Indian media/Indian army spokesmen during the occasional border clashes along the Line of Control (LoC) , is a federal government force.

Mujahid Force is i believe Pakistani equivalent of our TA. This is a partial list of battalions which i had compiled some years back:

640 Mujahid Battalion
647 Mujahid Battalion
653 Mujahid Battalion
654 Mujahid Battalion
655 Mujahid Battalion
801 Mujahid Battallion
815 Mujahid Battalion
834 Mujahid Battalion

As confessed by Pak Defence Minister in a recent TV interview, Pak casualties in current episode are as follows:

- 'Foujis' 27 KIA
- 'Foujis' 66 Injured
- 'Civilians' 44 dead
- 'Civilians' 129 injured"

I would question if Pak Ranger and Mujahid casualties are counted here and under which head. I could count them as civvies.

Moreover, jehadi casualties during infiltration are not reported at all.

[Aditya G]

i didnt understand one thing...why did we stop if we were hurting them so much? does a Paki phone call have so much impact? did we call them and tell them not to send terrorists across LOC? i think we should be plastering them 24*7 till atleast Raheel retires.. ( the Pakistani Napoleon who partially conquered on his own provinces !!). I would like to hear recording of the phone call... cant it be leaked?

With Pak Army DGMO calling us, we have sealed a victory in the 2016 Border War. Seems like a good moment to take a pause and take stock.

[pankajs]

i didnt understand one thing...why did we stop if we were hurting them so much? does a Paki phone call have so much impact? did we call them and tell them not to send terrorists across LOC? i think we should be plastering them 24*7 till atleast Raheel retires.. ( the Pakistani Napoleon who partially conquered on his own provinces !!). I would like to hear recording of the phone call... cant it be leaked?

because

Gen Hasnain;
http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/commen ... 27382.html

For us, the LoC being quiet is advantageous, quite the opposite of what Pakistan desires.

I will bet that if Bakis make a FOOLPROOF offer of 10 years calm LOC/IB/etc, Modi will accept it without a second thought.

[manjgu]

i await the next infiltration attempt !!

[Rakesh]

India’s response was so strong that Pakistan pleaded with us to stop: Parrikar
http://m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/ ... yJyzM.html

Coming from the RM, this is huge. The pigs felt pain. Thank You!!!

[manjgu]

these turds have been putting us in pain since last n years..and we just put them out of pain so soon? i dont like it..

[yensoy]

these turds have been putting us in pain since last n years..and we just put them out of pain so soon? i dont like it..

Easy being an armchair jingo. Even if we are "winning", it costs us lives. At some point it stops being worth it. There is no chance of Pak collapsing or Baluchistan seceding just because of a hot LOC.

[shiv]

True or false, Khaled Ahmad claims in his book that Musharraf after 2003 attempted to go easy on Kashmir. I did not notice because 2003 - 2009 was about the worst time for terrorism in India. But apparently attempts on Musharraf's life occurred because he tried to go easy on India. Of course Musharraf is now in worse trouble for other things including Lal Masjid. He is a hero only for Times of India and Amonkey-asses.

Whatever the truth, it is clear that jihadi groups have been kept alive on the promise that enmity with India will never end. For some the Kashmir issue is an end point - for others a takeover of Kashmir is only the beginning of the take-down of India.

So there is not the chance of a fart in a tornado that terrorism or border violations will not occur. Belligerence and war are the only way forward. the sooner we Indians can see that across the board - the better. Of course there is no need to panic. After all the US has been continuously fighting wars for how long now - (after Vietnam) - 25 years? So it need not be such a big deal. The deal is only to impoverish Pakistan and encourage sectarian and ethnic fissures while discouraging other nations from aiding Pakistan. Sunni Islam is our ally here. Wahhabi-Deobandi Islam is neutral. It does not see India as more of an enemy that the US - or China for that matter. In fact even the Pakistani army is an enemy. India should not be too greedy and we should share Pakistan's Wahhabandi Islam with America and China.

[svinayak]

True or false, Khaled Ahmad claims in his book that Musharraf after 2003 attempted to go easy on Kashmir. I did not notice because 2003 - 2009 was about the worst time for terrorism in India. But apparently attempts on Musharraf's life occurred because he tried to go easy on India. Of course Musharraf is now in worse trouble for other things including Lal Masjid. He is a hero only for Times of India and Amonkey-asses.

Whatever the truth, it is clear that jihadi groups have been kept alive on the promise that enmity with India will never end. For some the Kashmir issue is an end point - for others a takeover of Kashmir is only the beginning of the take-down of India.

It is not just about enmity with India.
The below panel keeps talking about end result. Kashmir will get freedom and due to that then India will also go disintegrate. See at 4.00 Min.
Similar talks are in many shows .
It seems to some western political sociologists have made this plan of attack on Kashmir which will result in internal problems for India.

[Bishwa]

Guarav Sawant's news program (India Today) says Pakistan has moved 2 divisions from the Afghan border to the Indian border. This is quoting a Pakistan legislator.

Any other news on this?

[Bishwa]

NDTV's Vishnu Som has an article that the PA DGMO asked for a discussion with the Indian DGMO to buy time to replenish their posts. Any further news on this? is the above Gaurav Sawant news and this article linked?

[Bheeshma]

Just because Indian DGMO is talking to the paki piglet does not mean he will ask our troops to stop firing. Pakis will be kept under observation and wiped out if they try anything stupid. Regarding moving troops away from afghan border its the right time for ANA to lay claim to FATA and demolish torkham post.

[kvraghav]

They cannot move much troops out of afghan border. It is no more a friendly border and I think all it will take is a phone call from India to light up the afghan border. The afghans are waiting for payback and a little support.