Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 24 Feb 2022 11:23

Lots of cruise missile videos on the internet. George Bush must be proud.

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 11:23

Ukrainian AF claimed it repealed a Russian Air strike. Ukrainian PR claims Russian fighters flew into a trap. 2 Jets shot down reportedly, video of Su-24 wreckage not confirmed yet.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 24 Feb 2022 11:27

GShankar wrote:A perspective on what is going on

Nordstream 2 would help russia economically
1.1 China does not want that
1.2 US does not want that
1.3 Ukraine does not want that
1.4 Sanction/Ban the company building the pipeline

Start some NATO BS with Ukraine

Cut alternate deals with Germany

Provoke Russia
4.1 Putin gives speech. But why? There seems to be a need to address the internal audience.

Russia Engages
5.1 US Condemns
5.2 China Condems
5.3 Germany Stutters

Nordstream 2 suspended
I think pretty much primary mission achieved. The powers that be don't care about 2 new countries being formed. And roos manages to achieve some sort of buffer (territory expansion?). Interesting that "this" buffer is valued more (at this moment) than nordstream 2. Not sure why? This "buffer creation" could have happened after nordstream 2 started flowing

Negotiate price down further bring nordstream 2 back on track?

I think G2 is alive and well.

Very interesting and well thought out.

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 24 Feb 2022 11:31

Statement by President Biden on Russia’s Unprovoked and Unjustified Attack on Ukraine

Tomorrow, I will meet with my G7 counterparts in the morning and then speak to the American people to announce the further consequences the United States and our Allies and partners will impose on Russia for this needless act of aggression against Ukraine and global peace and security.

Think tomorrow, by afternoon, the situation/response will become clearer. Maybe they really will kick Russia out of Swift but likely it'll be more "thoughts and prayers".

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 11:34

Looks like Putin picked the worst day to attack heavy cloud cover looks to hampering Air strikes.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Feb 2022 11:35

John wrote:Looks like Putin picked the worst day to attack heavy cloud cover looks to hampering Air strikes.

I don't think the Russians are that incompetent. The strikes are calibrated to whatever their short term objectives are. Ukrainians will fold like a house of cards.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 24 Feb 2022 11:37

Ideally Russia would want to achieve most of the primary military objectives before Biden decides to take any action.

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 24 Feb 2022 11:44

Mort Walker wrote:
John wrote:Looks like Putin picked the worst day to attack heavy cloud cover looks to hampering Air strikes.
I don't think the Russians are that incompetent. The strikes are calibrated to whatever their short term objectives are. Ukrainians will fold like a house of cards.

They're totally folding boss.

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status ... YMuZw&s=19

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 11:45

Dilbu wrote:Ideally Russia would want to achieve most of the primary military objectives before Biden decides to take any action.

That was the plan to capture key areas in a quick strike but separatist botched their false flag attacks and US relayed all the Intel on Russian plans. This forced the delay as Ukrainian started digging in, I believe battle plan has changed to softening the targets before any major offensive sanctions be damned.

Ukrainian are claiming to have shot down a lot of jets one of reasons they say air raids have stopped. But let’s wait for official confirmation seems like fog of war just like naval invasion that never came.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 24 Feb 2022 11:45

Russia saying they neutralized the entire Ukrainian air defense network in one night? Really? Again, their capabilities must have expanded rapidly in the last few years, and they apparently avoided showing off their new capabilities in Syria.

Surprisingly professional and disciplined approach the Russians have followed, if all this is true.

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 11:47

Y. Kanan wrote:Russia saying they neutralized the entire Ukrainian air defense network in one night? Really? Again, their capabilities must have expanded rapidly in the last few years, and they apparently avoided showing off their new capabilities in Syria.

Surprisingly professional and disciplined approach the Russians have followed, if all this is true.

Looks like Russia thought they were neutralized and sent some jets and they got shot down is what I am hearing.

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 24 Feb 2022 11:48

Y. Kanan wrote:Russia saying they neutralized the entire Ukrainian air defense network in one night? Really? Again, their capabilities must have expanded rapidly in the last few years, and they apparently avoided showing off their new capabilities in Syria.

Surprisingly professional and disciplined approach the Russians have followed, if all this is true.

Maybe not quite.

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/14967286 ... iyVVA&s=19

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 24 Feb 2022 11:51

Sounds a lot like the paki claim of shooting down the Su-30. Unlikely the Russians neutralized their entire air defense and similarly unlikely the Russians lost 5 jets and a helicopter in a single night.

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 11:53

m_saini wrote:Sounds a lot like the paki claim of shooting down the Su-30. Unlikely the Russians neutralized their entire air defense and similarly unlikely the Russians lost 5 jets and a helicopter in a single night.

So far only 1 Su-24 wreckage video so that’s only one confirmed by Ukrainian military.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 24 Feb 2022 11:54

What ADS do the Ukranians have that the Russkis don't know about? S300s? Much of these will be seriously hardpressed vs. Kalibr, Klub, Yakhont types. Not to mention Iskander. Some Ru ground attack birds will get hit, thats a given, but I don't think UKR ADS infrastructure can withstand sustained bombings by Russian missile forces.

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 24 Feb 2022 11:55

John wrote: So far only 1 Su-24 wreckage video so that’s only one confirmed by Ukrainian military.

That ANI tweet above quotes Reuters who quotes "Ukraine military".

Ukraine military says five Russian planes and a Russian helicopter were shot down in Luhansk region: Reuters

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 24 Feb 2022 11:56

Everything coming out of there is third/fourth hand he said she said.
Meanwhile, I not sure where the war is. On the Ukranian border or on twitter between Trumpians and dumbocrats.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 24 Feb 2022 11:57

Shaktimaan wrote:Operation Reverse Barbarossa is too long so I'm naming this conflict Operation Assorabrab. Pronounced Asso-rab-rab.

Pardon you are diluting scale and scope of op Barbarossa.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 24 Feb 2022 12:06

John wrote:
Shaktimaan wrote:I feel this is not good for India. Russia is our biggest arms supplier and now they will be decisively blockaded from supplying spares to us.

What is Putin trying to achieve here with Operation Reverse Barbarossa anyway?
Sadly we are looking at 2 bill write off on Tushil and Tamala Frigates one of dumbest move we could have possibly have made and we did. See my post in naval discussion thread.

Why a write off? Delays 100%, write off is bit extreme no?

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 24 Feb 2022 12:07

rsingh wrote:
Shaktimaan wrote:Operation Reverse Barbarossa is too long so I'm naming this conflict Operation Assorabrab. Pronounced Asso-rab-rab.
Pardon you are diluting scale and scope of op Barbarossa.

Actually it works there as well because one can claim it’s the reverse of Barbarossa in scale as well…

As the war cry of beloved Pakjabi army goes: No need to put mijjile on my asso, tainu rab-rab da vaasta,

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 24 Feb 2022 12:10

Looks like 'Vande Bharat' flights to evacuate Indian citizens (mostly students) were turned back as the entire air space is closed. As in Afghanistan, the delayed evacuation can be blamed on the citizens and not the government. The citizens were warned well in advance that a war may break out anytime and they need to return but instead they chose to wait putting the government in a fix.

Side note - its only now that i am learning that both Russia and Ukraine are hugely popular among Indian students looking for affordable medical education. Apparently it is common among those students who don't attain NEET eligibility to enroll in medical courses in India to pursue a medical degree in Russia/Ukraine.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 24 Feb 2022 12:14

@Ambar, you'd be surprised how many from India go to places like China to get a degree.

m_saini · Post by **m_saini** » 24 Feb 2022 12:15

https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1496734064593674240

Video shows a missle in flight moments before hitting an airport. Reminds me of that video where an IAF jet is following a Nirbhay missile

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 12:20

Tanaji wrote:
John wrote: Sadly we are looking at 2 bill write off on Tushil and Tamala Frigates one of dumbest move we could have possibly have made and we did. See my post in naval discussion thread.

Why a write off? Delays 100%, write off is bit extreme no?

Sadly I think so since I doubt Ukrainians will now ship the gas turbines to Russia even if conflict resolves itself in a week.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 24 Feb 2022 12:25

John wrote:
Tanaji wrote:

Why a write off? Delays 100%, write off is bit extreme no?
Sadly I think so since I doubt Ukrainians will now ship the gas turbines to Russia even if conflict resolves itself in a week.

Yeah. But it could be that the Russians themselves produce the gas turbines now, eh?

srin · Post by **srin** » 24 Feb 2022 12:27

Will Ukraine even exist as a separate country by the time this is over ? Putin's speech a couple of days ago talked about Ukraine as an artificial entity created by Lenin.

John · Post by **John** » 24 Feb 2022 12:29

Cain Marko wrote:
John wrote: Sadly I think so since I doubt Ukrainians will now ship the gas turbines to Russia even if conflict resolves itself in a week.
Yeah. But it could be that the Russians themselves produce the gas turbines now, eh?

Yes they require great deal of changes especially for a vessel close to launch you are talking about another couple years of delay and even then lot of risk.

For example 4th Gorshkov class Frigate which was supposed to use Russian NPO Saturn turbines has yet to launched and has been under construction since 2014. I doubt we have that patience.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 24 Feb 2022 12:32

vimal wrote:@Ambar, you'd be surprised how many from India go to places like China to get a degree.

and many with chinky degree come back home to run the family saree business.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 24 Feb 2022 12:33

The stated objectives by Putin are "demilitarisation and denazification” of Ukraine. The nazification part can be ignored as part of propaganda but what does 'demilitarisation' mean? Is he planning to remove entire Ukraine defence forces from the table as threat against Russia? If so can he achieve this without occupying the country?

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 24 Feb 2022 12:41

I don't see any pluses for India from this conflict:

1. Economy faltering from rising oil and other prices --> Good for Cong at elections
2. Possible complications in several major military acquisitions. But, maybe that will push Made In India in the long run, one can hope.
3. China will be watching how the West reacts. It might be emboldened to be even more aggressive than in the past.

I feel like people cheering Russians on this thread are hung up from the 80s Indo-Russian nostalgia. Just like with INC, new India has to look past Russians. Our strategic and national aspirations are not tied to them anymore.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 24 Feb 2022 12:48

John wrote:
Cain Marko wrote: Yeah. But it could be that the Russians themselves produce the gas turbines now, eh?
Yes they require great deal of changes especially for a vessel close to launch you are talking about another couple years of delay and even then lot of risk.

For example 4th Gorshkov class Frigate which was supposed to use Russian NPO Saturn turbines has yet to launched and has been under construction since 2014. I doubt we have that patience.

John, this is what I was alluding to, admittedly tongue in cheek:

srin wrote:Will Ukraine even exist as a separate country by the time this is over ? Putin's speech a couple of days ago talked about Ukraine as an artificial entity created by Lenin.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 24 Feb 2022 12:53

Russia denies any plane downed ....
https://www.rt.com/russia/550428-russia ... ne-downed/

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 24 Feb 2022 12:53

Ambar wrote:Looks like 'Vande Bharat' flights to evacuate Indian citizens (mostly students) were turned back as the entire air space is closed.

Most likely there would be another "Mudi should rejign.." campaign on this one as he did not have the astrologer skills to predict what will happen in Ukraine and did not call for the air lifts earlier

.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 24 Feb 2022 12:55

Dilbu wrote:The stated objectives by Putin are "demilitarisation and denazification” of Ukraine. The nazification part can be ignored as part of propaganda but what does 'demilitarisation' mean? Is he planning to remove entire Ukraine defence forces from the table as threat against Russia? If so can he achieve this without occupying the country?

Doesn't need to occupy (except maybe some strategic areas)...he can keep bombing and reducing their defense infrastructure.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Feb 2022 12:57

Raja wrote:I don't see any pluses for India from this conflict:

1. Economy faltering from rising oil and other prices --> Good for Cong at elections
2. Possible complications in several major military acquisitions. But, maybe that will push Made In India in the long run, one can hope.
3. China will be watching how the West reacts. It might be emboldened to be even more aggressive than in the past.

I feel like people cheering Russians on this thread are hung up from the 80s Indo-Russian nostalgia. Just like INC, new India has to look past Russians. Our strategic and national aspirations are not tied to them anymore.

1. Increasing oil prices and INR devaluing against USD is going to be the biggest problem.
2. This is an impetus for Atmanirbhar Bharat. The big problem is lack of CAPEX for domestic acquisition.
3. Yes.
4. No love for Russia, but this conflict has been set up by the US starting back to the failed Orange Revolution in 2005. The US regime change machine transcending political parties has to be kicked in the teeth. It is better that their own white Christians do it to them.

ManuJ · Post by **ManuJ** » 24 Feb 2022 13:05

Foolish move from Putin that will hasten the redrawing of the geostrategic map that was previously getting redrawn over decades.
On one hand, it will unite the west and strengthen & expand NATO, and on the other hand it will force Russia to become overdependent on China. It hands a win to China on a platter in its war against the US.
Will have grave consequences for India. Russia-China alliance (with Pakistan as junior member - note Imran's invitation to Russia) will accelerate India's disenchantment with Russia, and will complete its move towards the US-led alliances.

Unfortunately, India still needs the remaining S-400 batteries and other spares, so it needs to tread very carefully.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 24 Feb 2022 13:14

Live: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0I5eglJMRI

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 24 Feb 2022 13:16

Hope with the pressures on trade with Russia, we get our own house in order and able to quickly indigenize technologies needed for nuclear & conventional subs, missiles (Brahmos, S400, etc), artillery (Gsh etc) and just about everything else. And we continue to invest to stay abreast of technological improvements. We cannot continue to rely on foreign suppliers forever.

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 24 Feb 2022 13:18

China has done a neat job deflecting attention from COVID onto aggression by Russia. Guess Joe did the job after all. Showing himself as a senile man is a ploy to show being incompetent but really he is doing as expected. Will also hand Eurasia to China on a platter for OBOR and energy pipelines.

I wonder if Putin is ill? And wants one last campaign for Mother Russia? He is not the kind to be sick but usually rants reflect something not quite there mentally.

For India time to grow up and stop relying on Mother Russia. Will the babus understand? there are no backups now in foreign policy it is Joe and Eleven and Us

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Feb 2022 13:19

Putin quote:

As for the military sphere, modern Russia, even after the collapse of the USSR and the loss of a significant part of its nuclear potential, is today one of the most powerful nuclear powers. And moreover, it has certain advantages in a number of the latest types of weapons. In this regard, no one should have any doubt that a direct attack on Russia will lead to defeat and dire consequences for a potential aggressor.

No one is going to do anything military against Russia.