Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 22 Apr 2014 08:21

SwamyG wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:For me anything less than 363 for NDA is a loss.
Really, you are expecting that high number?

Not really, but with post poll alliances getting it may be close. Personally, I think we're near 300, but the goal has to be set high and it certainly seems NAMO is aiming for it with his confidence in speeches and interviews. We really need UCC and repeal of Article 370. Maybe UCC could be sold as one man + one woman = one marriage and kill all this gay marriage and 3rd gender business with one stone.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 22 Apr 2014 08:21

I had always thought that bringing Kalyan Singh to campaign in Mumbai would do wonders. His mere presence will cause total polarization that Ms sickos and pseudos will not be able to counter.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Apr 2014 09:08

Sanjay
Dr Patil of 543 has very clear tweets. Looks like he cleeared up his misgivings. He is calling it a super wave. I would wait till Thursday when 117 seats go to polls.

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 22 Apr 2014 09:24

Hi All,

*First round of Kanyakumari cold calling done. Taking a break. Interim report follows:

*Spoke to several BJP functionaries. Looks like Vasantha Kumar from Congress is the main rival for Pon.RadhaKrishnan in KanniyaKumari.

*Everyone that I spoke with, without exception, are expecting a BJP win. The only question is the margin of victory.

* The church will announce "their" candidate in a secret meeting and this will be conveyed to all the parish families in a hush-hush manner.

*This time many Christian families want to vote for BJP. Many are impressed by Modi and want to see him in Delhi.

* If the Christian vote shifts en masse to Pon Radhakrishnan, the margin will be huge. If not, he will still win, albeit with a lesser margin.

Best
Fred

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 22 Apr 2014 09:30

Good morning. NaMo will lose onlee.

niran · Post by **niran** » 22 Apr 2014 09:34

Atri wrote:Worried abt MP's low voter turnout.

yes, Sir, even lowly volunteers in UP and has been questioning, they wanna know what and why is hindering MP BJP unit.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 22 Apr 2014 09:38

niran wrote:
Atri wrote:Worried abt MP's low voter turnout.

yes, Sir, even lowly volunteers in UP and has been questioning, they wanna know what and why is hindering MP BJP unit.

I am worried about worst. better not count 25 seats from MP. Do not want to speak out things which are too early and will be answered anyways on 16th.

Good that there are many options in second rung BJP leadership. CG turnout was very good.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 22 Apr 2014 09:49

It is really important for the new govt to deliver something susbstantial in the initial years. I would suggest railways as a good option. everyone in the country will feel the change and get the benfit if some serious change can be brought about in 2-3 years.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 22 Apr 2014 09:51

bijli, dilbu miya.. bijli..

get those power plants some coal and reduce the load-shedding hours drastically.. public will be khush onlee..

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 22 Apr 2014 09:54

Yes but I am thinking of an option with lowest interference from state govts as many congi state govts would rather let their people live like beggers than implement something that will benefit NaMo. Railways is completely under central govt control.

niran · Post by **niran** » 22 Apr 2014 10:05

Ramana Sir, the figure 291 I quoted is the lowest figure doing rounds here, as one BRFities says there are two election being fought
one in the hi fi offices and the other in the open, had been touring areas in and around Deoria, Gorakhpur, Azamgarh, Gazipur, Mau, Balia.
in the villages I find Saffron banners stickers flags everywhere people say don't tell us who to vote, but please help us get our voters ID card wagera, this is done at earnest. in towns people start smiling as soon as they know you are bjp vol. have had gulped down tons of free chai and pakodas and mithais just by being a vol. in the officies if find these caste equations this equation that equation going, which IMVVVHO is moot if you consider what you see at ground level.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Apr 2014 10:06

Part1 - Prelude to Twilight

the day has dawned but the air is black with soot, gravel and pungent smoke of heavy artillery ....

East banks of the yamuna - 100s of short barrel howitzers are lined hubcap to hubcap and belching fire as fast as they can be reloaded by teams of civilian volunteers some with tattered shirts on their backs and bellies without food for a week...a mile to the rear the wounded are patched up by volunteer nurses.

the carcasses of dead animals float aimlessly down the broad expanse of the river.

most of delhi is in flames....the Alliance beachhead on the west bank holding on for dear life to a strip of land few miles wide as the Turkic hordes of the Sultanate launch frenzied assault after assault with all their remaining cavalry and janissari infantry regiments of the Sickular madrassas stretching as far back as Kaboul and Herat, socialist krantikaris drawn from the halls of DU and JNU too repeatedly making suicidal charges right to the lip of the trenchlines before being driven back with staves, fists, bayonets and rocks.

up on Raisina hill The Prince himself nervously reviews the proceedings, sipping on rooh afza in a scented silk tent , surrounded by 1000 elite horsemen of his personal congi royal guard led by Gen Diggy himself astride a magnificent black arabian charger not a inch below 19 hands in height, gleaming with the best of damascus made chain mail armour and a pointed metal helmet...looking like Babur himself reincarnated. every once in a while a fast horse cart brings in more refreshments of succulent goat kebabs, basmati rice and crushed ice drizzled with rose water and kheer for The Prince from the royal encampment below. And small silver jewelry boxes of Afeem too.

tall flagpoles flutter in the warm wind, bearing black silk flags with cobra's hood - symbol of the Sultanate.

streams of small boats move replacements from the east bank to the west bank , some vanishing amid the splash of turkic artillery sited on ridges and high points and accurately bringing down fire .....

twenty miles to the north and south of the maelstrom in the middle, at shallow unguarded points on the placid yamuna where the tall grass grows on the silty flats right down to the water's edge, Alliance scouts finally find locations that are shallow enough for elephants and horses to ford. makeshift rafts by the 100s fashioned from the stems of banana trees and animal hides are brought forward by field engineers creeping up through the sarkanda grass on the mud flats...

finally at 3pm the order comes on the network - commence Op Crab .... and the rafts are launched with bags of heavy supplies wrapped in plastic tarps, and long lines of horsemen stream across the river to begin the first of two great pincer movements....the inner pincer of infantry, cannons pulled by mules and elite units of wild buffalos and dhole's to be unleashed at night on enemy camps to cause mayhem..the outer pincer of maratha cavalry , Telugu javelin men, Bhil archers and Purbia mobile artillery. inner pincer to converge at dhaula kuan and the outer pincer at kapashera border village.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 22 Apr 2014 10:09

Saar you should write a book.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 22 Apr 2014 10:11

Sniper ‏@avarakai 18h

@ranganaathan Will call you. Something worldwide is cooking up. What Bofors is for Rajiv, AW is for his spouse.

saumitra_j · Post by **saumitra_j** » 22 Apr 2014 10:11

A friend who campaigned in Pune found another interesting Puneri Pati outside a house: "If you are from Congress, we will let loose dogs at you" :rotfl Wish the percentage voting was higher - it was eventually 58.75%

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 22 Apr 2014 10:16

one lakh people found names missing. shameful.. They are conducting repoll in one booth in beed for extra 8 votes that were cast. and this jhol of on lakh is still under consideration. I hope those one lakh should be allowed to vote. they will vote for lotus.

Singha ji,

badhiya..

aane do.. aakraman onlee..

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 22 Apr 2014 10:26

Final report from today's Kanyakumari calling:

*Called about 50 numbers. All cold calls.

*A sample follows:
4 members , will all vote for BJP, strong support for BJP in Colachel.

Treasurer, BJP. Congress giving a tough fight. Christian candidate.

BJP functionary in his panchayat.

Spoke to Mr.S, Kanyakumari district exec committee member. Confident of victory.

Another BJP functionary. Confident of win.

BJP youth wing member. Confident of victory.

BJP supporter. 4 votes.

BJP volunteer. Driver. Taking off for 20 days. Working for Modi. Confident of win.

RSS member. Gives a 50 - 50 chance to BJP. Congress spending money like water.

BJP functionary. Confirms enthusiasm for Modi across religious line. Predicts BJP win.

BJP supporter. Malayalee. 5 votes. Predicts BJP win.

5 votes. BJP supporter. Predicts BJP win.

4 votes. Will vote for BJP. Predicts BJP win due to Modi factor this time.

In addition spoke to several grocery shop owners, taxi cab owners.
Majority of the people seem to think that BJP is going to win this time.

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 22 Apr 2014 10:28

Apologies if already posted.

WRT to karnataka LS results this list is doing rounds on twitter. IMO not entirely off the ground realities as well(except for gulbarga seat i feel).

I would be happy if bjp wins what is given in the list(even w/o uncertain ones as well).

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 22 Apr 2014 11:02

Singha saar,
follow dilbu's advice, write a book. Build on this story(semi-fictional story of a 'dilli sultanate facing rebellion in a modern setting...). I could actually imagine the scene while I read it and thats the sign of a good writer.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 22 Apr 2014 11:08

Even if Singha can't write a book, perhaps he can use that post as the first of a thread where he posts a vivid storyline daily on those lines

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Apr 2014 11:14

I plan to keep posting episodic posts on this thread off and on until May16...if things look well for the Alliance...

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 22 Apr 2014 11:49

Atriji,have lost hope for South Mumbai. Old timers including dad and his friends, committed diamond market and industrial players, put off by Arvind Sawant and his arrogance. Was very rude to some elderly folk at the candidate meetings.
Milind Dora comes off as suave and business friendly in comparison, heck, even Nandgaonkar seems to be better behaved!

Have repeatedly reminded people in the course of this election, that an MP can literally do nothing for a constituency. There are 1800 villages in Amethi for instance and an MP has funds at disposal to make a pavement half a km long. The constituency municipality has more funds at disposal than an MP has. State Govt and Central Govt initiatives alone can help develop constituencies. If an MP belongs to a ruling a party and the party is committed to progress then yes, the MP can highlight some issues. This is just a perception issue that "arrey phalaane MP ne bahoot kiya yeh constituency ka". If one votes Modi your constituency will get developed probably because of the way the PM-CM-MLA-MP effective interactive model Modi wants to develop. An extremely humble, efficient INC MP is most useless, elect him and Pappu comes on top. WIthin a year the coffers will be empty. The MP will tactically lie low. Humble, efficient, no arrogant means nothing under such circumstances. We had a huge number of Lohia'ite extremely honest MPs over the last 65 years. They did nothing.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 22 Apr 2014 11:59

Probably, this is not suitable for Election thread, but I have a related question. Do MPs have any direct role in the running of the government other than supporting/opposing the government and supporting/opposing a legislation?

I guess in reality, the expectations from MP are the following:

Highlight specific problems at a higher level in the government, so that those sitting in Delhi know about the vast reaches of the country.
Keeping in touch with the constituency. In other words a liaison for the aam junta with different problems which require government or private intervention.

But most MPs consider MP work as "coding/testing" and want to be with the top bosses, hence the disconnect. This phenomenon is most rampant in "central leadership" of not only the national parties but also regional parties.

-------------------------

Added later: That is right Sonuji. Wiki says 5 crores, which is sufficient for some precise micro allocations, like helping some good schools or giving some scholarships, may be a few water tanks.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 22 Apr 2014 12:04

^^ I believe they have a fund allocated for them which they are supposed to use for their constituency

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 22 Apr 2014 12:11

self deleted

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 22 Apr 2014 12:13

- deleted -

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 22 Apr 2014 12:16

Our shraddhaanjali to Bangalore's literate dead people ( 'sat praje' ) who stayed away from voting despite so many requests

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 22 Apr 2014 12:26

Added later: That is right Sonuji. Wiki says 5 crores, which is sufficient for some precise micro allocations, like helping some good schools or giving some scholarships, may be a few water tanks.

Amethi has 1800 villages. Rs 50000000 allotted means: Rs 27,700/ village. What can really one do with that amount?

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 22 Apr 2014 12:30

its 27777.77777777778

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Apr 2014 12:45

a decent feast of biryani, haleem and nihari for the influential elders.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 22 Apr 2014 13:17

Muppalla wrote:
Atri wrote: Fall of sugar lobby likely to be biggest story of India which will most probably go unnoticed in the din of victory. Their victory margins will drastically reduce and most seats will go.
This is a real Deepavali moment. Hope this time our wishes are really horses.

Atri ji is there a chance of this lobby rising again? Like they did after Sena-BJP Govt?

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 22 Apr 2014 13:25

Thing is the people who say 'Hamaare MP ne bahoot kuch kiya hai constituency me, sadke banvayee hai' (Trans: My MP has done a lot for our constituency, made roads blah blah) etc etc are lying through their teeth. Funds for "Bahoot kuch karne ke liye aur Sadke banaane ke liye" don't exist with the MPs. They are with municipality, State Govts and Central Govts. The problems are majorly infra related today, and a good MP really should just coordinate studies for Infra projects, needs and forward them to the person on the top and initiate measures, policies that could enhance or alleviate bad infra. Nothing more to it. The best person ofcourse at this juncture to initiate major infra works in NM and he says that in so many forums about coordinating State-Center cooperation for development. If he manages to achieve even some cooperation then the worst MP from any constituency backing him will have done more than the best MP with the best intentions not backing him.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 22 Apr 2014 13:29

Folks, this from the official account of Amitbhai Shah

Amit Shah ‏@AmitShahOffice 16h
But Now: Mayawati ji ka base khisak raha hai.This is happening for the first time since Kanshi Ram ji in UP: http://tinyurl.com/k2lvzt9

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Apr 2014 14:27

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 22 Apr 2014 14:36

Singha wrote: (1) most of delhi is in flames....
(2) socialist krantikaris drawn from the halls of DU and JNU too repeatedly making suicidal charges right to the lip of the trenchlines before being driven back with staves, fists, bayonets and rocks....
(3) up on Raisina hill The Prince himself nervously reviews the proceedings, sipping on rooh afza in a scented silk tent...
(4) And small silver jewelry boxes of Afeem too....
(5) to converge at dhaula kuan and the outer pincer at kapashera border village.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Apr 2014 14:37

April 24 & 30 are key dates when the future history of india will be written either way.

may7 will be another signature fight between Jagan vs TDP+BJP

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 22 Apr 2014 14:40

You must write a book, the material above, one can literally imagine the scene as one is reading it....

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 22 Apr 2014 14:44

Gunjur wrote:Apologies if already posted.

WRT to karnataka LS results this list is doing rounds on twitter. IMO not entirely off the ground realities as well(except for gulbarga seat i feel).

I would be happy if bjp wins what is given in the list(even w/o uncertain ones as well).

Would certainly like to know how this guy came up the above predictions.

Adding to the post.

In Bengaluru rural, i feel congress should win. But what I have heard is that the 2 urban assembly segments(Rajarajeshwarinagar, Anekal) have voted mainly bjp. These 2 assembly segments itself has around 6L voters. But other segments like kanakapura, ramanagara, chennapatna, kunigal, magadi etc will mainly vote for congress/jds. (Mainly congress this time due to DiKeShi). But still I feel Blr R is congress.

One more uncertain seat is Gulbarga. No idea why it is in uncertain category. Kharge should win from here imo. Chamarajanagar also congress imo(though in 2009 the difference between congress and bjp was not that big).

Not sure why bagalkote is in uncertain category, maybe because Shankar bidari(former karnataka DGP) is standing as a independent here. This was one of the reason to induct muthalik into bjp. Muthalik has some traction in bijapur/bagalkote/dharwad regions. But so called public opinion across nation trumped over regional/local ground realities.

Tumkuru should be congress but heard jds has done well in certain assembly segments. Hence maybe in uncertain category as basavaraj of bjp is not that popular in tumkur inspite of being MP multiple times.

Chickballapura – kumaraswamy might win but bjp’s bacchegowda is a dark horse.

Karawara(uttara kannada) is bjp stronghold, though current mp is unpopular with not much work to show around.

But the one seat which should have been in uncertain category is Bengaluru south. As per rumours nilekani has spent more than 150 crs. Again as per folks there, congress workers have offered 1k per vote . So if one house has 4 votes, they have got 4k.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 22 Apr 2014 14:48

This elections for NaMo, as far as common man is concerned, are mostly about

developing the basic infrastructure
- Sadak, Bijli, Pani
- Toilet Facilities, Sewage Treatment, Garbage Collection
high job generation
- Manufacturing
- Tourism
- Agriculture
skill development, education

Congress model was

1) doles - FSB, MNREGA
2) US-supported IT & BPO jobs

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 22 Apr 2014 14:52

Tumkur will go to BJP. Its a stronger hold of BSY than shimoga. Basavaraj is unpopular since 10 yrs but wins.