2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Feb 2020 07:32

kumarn wrote:BJP issues a whip for tomorrow.

BJP's letter states 'All BJP MPs of Rajya Sabha are informed that some very important Legislative work will be brought to the House on Tuesday, 11th February 2020, to be discussed and to be passed'.

Get ready for UCC.

Some rumors are that Delhi maybe restructured as it is a union territory.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Feb 2020 08:15

Moderation Note
When a series of posts on something have been deleted and posters informally cautioned, that means you don't do back and start posting more.

The entire line of conversation is a exercise in dumb behavior, with people reporting each other *and* making things worse for themselves, and others rushing in to pontificate.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 11 Feb 2020 09:01

Early Trends show that PAAP is sweeping Delhi. 41 vs 13 leads as of now.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 11 Feb 2020 09:15

sajo wrote:Early Trends show that PAAP is sweeping Delhi. 41 vs 13 leads as of now.

AAP 55 BJP 15 INC 0
AAP is doing good and BJP is not so since 2019 parliament elections.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 11 Feb 2020 09:18

I doubt BJP will cross 10 in the final tally as there is a tendency towards the leading party as counting progresses.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Feb 2020 09:31

There are no real trends. What we have is reports on postal ballet votes. Wait up to 9 30 or 10 to see what happens.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 11 Feb 2020 09:39

^^ Maybe so, but I am switching off my TV and will check after a few hours. Can’t afford to get my BP up seeing ass holes like Saba Naqvi, moronica, Coupta etc already gloat with beaming faces.Thoo

madhu · Post by **madhu** » 11 Feb 2020 09:39

Mort Walker wrote:
kumarn wrote:BJP issues a whip for tomorrow.

BJP's letter states 'All BJP MPs of Rajya Sabha are informed that some very important Legislative work will be brought to the House on Tuesday, 11th February 2020, to be discussed and to be passed'.

Get ready for UCC.
Some rumors are that Delhi maybe restructured as it is a union territory.

All bills will not be listed for the public before introducing in parliament?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Feb 2020 09:43

The BJP got 3 seats in 2015. If they get between 10-15 will be a positive development. The BJP vote share should be between 35-37%, a slight improvement from the last time.

Edit: As of this post the BJP is leading in 17 seats and pAAPi party 53. Khangress ZERO.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 11 Feb 2020 09:49

Yagnasri wrote:There are no real trends. What we have is reports on postal ballet votes. Wait up to 9 30 or 10 to see what happens.

Postal ballots shouldn't take more than the first half an hour.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Feb 2020 09:49

But the first round will take some time. We may know things only after 9 30. Anything early is Tv idiots shouting at the top of their voices.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Feb 2020 09:53

Arnab is screaming that BJP has 43% vote share and pAAPi 50%.

amitverma · Post by **amitverma** » 11 Feb 2020 09:54

BJP vote percentage at 43% AAP at 49% as per ECI...........

amitverma · Post by **amitverma** » 11 Feb 2020 09:56

BJP 10
AAP 10

as per ECI

http://results.eci.gov.in/DELHITRENDS20 ... lt-U05.htm

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Feb 2020 09:58

BJP at 43 in a direct one to one fight is not going to win except the 3rd party INC getting at least 12-15% votes.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Feb 2020 09:58

I really wish Arnab would quit screaming.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Feb 2020 10:01

BJP is at 46.3 and PAAPis are at 47.9 now as per ECI site.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 11 Feb 2020 10:20

What is going to be interesting is what EVM-nutters led by Delhi CM, are going to claim now

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Feb 2020 10:23

If BJP wins 25 or somewhere near that, some PAAPis heavies are going to lose. That is for sure. The fact of this election is INC has once again allowed all its votes to go to PAAPis. Just like 2015. It can not continue as a national party for long with this kind of actions. What we are going to see is BJP and PAAPis in Delhi in future elections. Shila Dikshit did some work to win elections and PAAPis are mainly free bees etc and that can not make you win for long.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Feb 2020 10:28

Free bijli and pani can get you maybe a term or two. Which is 5-10 years. I'm guessing about 30 seats for the BJP which is great given the conditions.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Feb 2020 10:34

BJP vote % dropped to about 41%. Leading in about 20. Entire INC vote going to PAAPis now. It is not even 4% for INC. In 2019 they got almost 7 times of that. So INC made PAAPis win this.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Feb 2020 10:48

No point in reacting to mid stream dip stick test(s) when we will get the final results by around 6 pm. One this is certain, the mid stream numbers will certainly fluctuate!

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Feb 2020 10:53

It's looking like BJP will get 20 seats max right now based on ECI.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 11 Feb 2020 10:57

That is ok, AAP is a trap of its own freebies given in the last one year, if most of its MlA's are minority dependent and Kejriwal is locked in Delhi. He will have to go on Dharna in 1 year and 2 years astronomically raise taxes on Petrol Diesel etc.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Feb 2020 11:06

This has been posted. Just for the record.

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1226892732318142466

TIMES NOW @TimesNow

#Feb11WithTimesNow | @BJP4Delhi's internal survey predicts that the party will win a minimum of 41 seats.

Listen in: On @thenewshour Navika Kumar takes you through the inside scoop from BJP camp.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Feb 2020 11:13

Bekar Patel back at it ..

https://twitter.com/Aakar__Patel/status ... 4042701825

Aakar Patel @Aakar__Patel

‘Public road can’t be blocked indefinitely’: SC to Centre on Shaheen Bagh protest

Supreme Court of Hindu Rashtra lends helping hand.

Clearly gleat intellectuals like Bekar have a different understanding of the words "Public" and "indefinitely".

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Feb 2020 11:16

Seems some side action has been going on for a while now around Jamia Milillia ..

https://twitter.com/jamiamillia_/status ... 0683298817

Jamia Millia Islamia @jamiamillia_

Delhi Police is spraying some substance in air at the protest site.

Multiple students are complaining about stomach ache.

#JamiaMilliaIslamia

All Islamist/Liberandus/Leftists exaggerate but something is happening.

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 11 Feb 2020 11:24

pankajs wrote:This has been posted. Just for the record.

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1226892732318142466
TIMES NOW @TimesNow

#Feb11WithTimesNow | @BJP4Delhi's internal survey predicts that the party will win a minimum of 41 seats.

Listen in: On @thenewshour Navika Kumar takes you through the inside scoop from BJP camp.

Most BJP leads are tiny with <200 vote margin. Expect them to get 10-12 at max. Either way, it’s a big rejection of their agenda.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Feb 2020 11:26

pankajs wrote:Seems some side action has been going on for a while now around Jamia Milillia ..

https://twitter.com/jamiamillia_/status ... 0683298817
Jamia Millia Islamia @jamiamillia_

Delhi Police is spraying some substance in air at the protest site.

Multiple students are complaining about stomach ache.

#JamiaMilliaIslamia
All Islamist/Liberandus/Leftists exaggerate but something is happening.

Ok .. the background ...
https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1226908311670292489

ANI @ANI

Jamia protest today: Delhi Police registers a case under IPC sections 186, 188, 353, 332 and Prevention of Damage to Public Property Act in New Friends Colony police station.

Seems like Jamia students are back on the road.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Feb 2020 11:28

At 40.4% BJP is almost at the same place where it has started. Had there been no effect PAAPis would have 100% seat wins. Event now BJP will be hard pressed to be around 15 seats. In a way it is good that BJP is placing 50% vote bank of PAAPis this time. Hope their local "leaders" learn some good lesson.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Feb 2020 11:29

Nikhil T wrote:
pankajs wrote:This has been posted. Just for the record.

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1226892732318142466
Most BJP leads are tiny with <200 vote margin. Expect them to get 10-12 at max. Either way, it’s a big rejection of their agenda.

Funny .. CAA has 80% support in Delhi per polls NOT conducted by BJP. I myself has posted the survey in this very thread. That was/is BJP agenda and there is more like that to come!

I am not even harking back to BJP's 303 in the GE 2019 where its agenda was spelled out in great details. If people are unable to read/understand public sentiment then they are unable to counter BJP's agenda and end up with empty slogans. Thaak hai.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 11 Feb 2020 11:30

Not really, Delhi Vote % is 62.6%, population of the main Minorities is 29% which almost fully voted, so AAP with INC disappearing has got only 4% of the remaining votes. Organised religions control who to vote for Friday and Sunday, so I dont think BJP needs to listen to AAP voters, they need to continue the good work.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Feb 2020 11:30

Nikhil T wrote:
pankajs wrote:This has been posted. Just for the record.

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1226892732318142466
Most BJP leads are tiny with <200 vote margin. Expect them to get 10-12 at max. Either way, it’s a big rejection of their agenda.

Not really, I don't think the BJP offered as much freebies as pAAPis. Delhi voters are in their own bubble.

Raveen · Post by **Raveen** » 11 Feb 2020 11:31

Nikhil T wrote:
pankajs wrote:This has been posted. Just for the record.

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1226892732318142466
Most BJP leads are tiny with <200 vote margin. Expect them to get 10-12 at max. Either way, it’s a big rejection of their agenda.

More of the local leadership - 7/7 LS means agenda has support, abvp winning means agenda has support, MCD wins means agenda has support

Congi vote transfer, plus jin support, plus freebies and doles = Ford Foundation aka pAAP win

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 11 Feb 2020 11:36

Mort Walker wrote:
Nikhil T wrote:
Most BJP leads are tiny with <200 vote margin. Expect them to get 10-12 at max. Either way, it’s a big rejection of their agenda.
Not really, I don't think the BJP offered as much freebies as pAAPis. Delhi voters are in their own bubble.

The BJP legalized 1700 illegal colonies that house 40 lakh people - so that’s a freebie too!

It’s a bit arrogant to declare voters are in bubble when the same voters voted a different way a few months ago. A bit patronizing.

@Aditya_V Saar
What’s your source for minorities comprising 29.6% vote and they all voted? Per Shekhar Gupta - minorities are 12%.

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 11 Feb 2020 11:38

Raveen wrote:
Nikhil T wrote:
Most BJP leads are tiny with <200 vote margin. Expect them to get 10-12 at max. Either way, it’s a big rejection of their agenda.

More of the local leadership - 7/7 LS means agenda has support, abvp winning means agenda has support, MCD wins means agenda has support

Agree - the agenda of *that time*. The agenda set in Lok Sabha and MCD elections was different than that of today.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Feb 2020 11:41

Aditya_V wrote:Not really, Delhi Vote % is 62.6%, population of the main Minorities is 29% which almost fully voted, so AAP with INC disappearing has got only 4% of the remaining votes. Organised religions control who to vote for Friday and Sunday, so I dont think BJP needs to listen to AAP voters, they need to continue the good work.

Agree. It is the total polarization against the BJP in Delhi. BJP local "leaders" were/are not in the game from the start. It is not in power for the last 21 years for that reason alone. It never fought hard for assembly elections and when it was doing the fight between S.S. Varma and Khurana killed the party.

Going forward - stating with appointing good party head in Delhi immediately by removing that Manoj Tiwari who failed to deliver poorvanchali vote at any measure.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Feb 2020 11:42

Photo of a document floating on twitter wrt the Rajya sabha business for {the day/week/session ???}. Like all things on twitter, take this with a bucket of salt.

The only thing that stands out that would need a wip is UCC.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Feb 2020 11:44

We must refrain for analysis midstream. Let us first reach the banks, then take stock and then chart new action items.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 11 Feb 2020 11:47

pankajs wrote:Photo of a document floating on twitter wrt the Rajya sabha business for {the day/week/session ???}. Like all things on twitter, take this with a bucket of salt.

The only thing that stands out that would need a wip is UCC.

I think this related SC/ST reservation not UCC, thanks to SC verdict, the Babus are anyway with INC/AAP- I think it is important BJP is seen as fair to the SC/ST community.