Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[ramana]

Sounds like a fishy story from TSP of the Taliban guy in women's dress!

[SaiK]

let us wait till may 16th before we make these kind of sweeping transformatory statements.

sure, but we could consider sweeping exploratory statements.. no?

[Virupaksha]

let us wait till may 16th before we make these kind of sweeping transformatory statements.

sure, but we could consider sweeping exploratory statements.. no?

sure but based on what data?

Pravin Patel of Albatross in flight fame? Does anyone remember his predictions in 2012 UP assembly elections.

Predictions of 200 seats were doing the air when finally bjp's tally couldnt reach 2007 tally

Waise jor se bolo, BJP will looseeeeeeee onleeeeeeeee

[pankajs]

ABP News ‏@abpnewstv 3h

Polling on 349 seats rose by almost 10 percent in 2014: EC http://www.abplive.in/india/2014/04/24/ ... 1k3sVfqsdU …

[nachiket]

IMHO locally in Mumbai, the traditional core voters of BJP, i.e, middle and upper middle class Gujarati/Marwadi votes, (who has never voted for SS out of old memories from early 60's when both Maharashtra and Gujarat got created and in its early years SS was anti-guju party for all practical purpose) has voted for SS in south Mumbai in droves.

....

The SS's regionalism and their periodic anti-north indian/south Indian diatribes in the past keep hurting the SS-BJP combine. Some friends I spoke to, despite being Modi supporters were averse to voting for SS candidates in their area for this reason.

[vivek.rao]

'Only 18 percent of 33,000 Muslims in Behrampada voted till 3 pm

The debate begins when this correspondent expresses shock at the poor polling percentage recorded at Behrampada. Only 18 per cent of the 33,000 Muslims in the area have cast their vote by 3 pm, reveal Anwar and Irfan Syed, another local, who mans a polling helpdesk but on behalf of Congress’s Priya Dutt.

“If this trend doesn’t change for good after 3 pm then Priyaji will have a tough time,” informs Syed about the winning chances of two-time sitting MP from Mumbai North Central constituency. She is locked in a quadrangular do-or-die battle with Poonam Mahajan of the Bharatiya Janata Party, Phiroze Palkhiwala of the Aam Aadmi Party and Farhan Azmi, of the Samajwadi Party.

His father Abu Azmi had won around 84,000 Muslim and north Indian migrant votes in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections thereby playing a spoiler in Dutt’s victory margin. This time around Farhan is expected to spell trouble for the Congress even as Mahajan is pepped up by support from the so-called Narendra Modi wave, admit both Syed and Shaikh.

“The absence of a Maharashtra Navnirman Sena candidate will help her (Mahajan) avoid a split in her dedicated voters and also the anti-incumbency against Dutt.”

[ramana]

So what is the update in that seat after 6pm?

[RajeshA]

In this election I think NaMo has not only finished Congress (< 75) but also humbled all sorts of regional satraps - Mayawati and Mulayam, Lalu and Nitish, but also outside the Hindi heartland - Jayalalitha, Mamata, Naveen and Pawar! And Kejriwal is being swatted to pulp!

NaMo has given each and everybody a bloody nose! One Man and his Team!

[Hari Seldon]

Heck, even as late as october 2013, after NM had been designated BJP's PM candidate, I believed deep down that the odds of his making it to the PM gaddi were significantly below 50%.... then by march 2014 they moved to the 50-50 zone and in April have been hovering above the 50% level (i.e. the default is that NM will be PM).

[ramana]

In this election I think NaMo has not only finished Congress (< 75) but also humbled all sorts of regional satraps - Mayawati and Mulayam, Lalu and Nitish, but also outside the Hindi heartland - Jayalalitha, Mamata, Naveen and Pawar! And Kejriwal is being swatted to pulp!

NaMo has given each and everybody a bloody nose! One Man and his Team!

Modern day Ashwamedha!!!

[vivek.rao]

In this election I think NaMo has not only finished Congress (< 75) but also humbled all sorts of regional satraps - Mayawati and Mulayam, Lalu and Nitish, but also outside the Hindi heartland - Jayalalitha, Mamata, Naveen and Pawar! And Kejriwal is being swatted to pulp!

NaMo has given each and everybody a bloody nose! One Man and his Team!

I will believe it when I see it. Please don't raise my hopes too much. I don't want to be shattered on May 16

[RamaY]

In this election I think NaMo has not only finished Congress (< 75) but also humbled all sorts of regional satraps - Mayawati and Mulayam, Lalu and Nitish, but also outside the Hindi heartland - Jayalalitha, Mamata, Naveen and Pawar! And Kejriwal is being swatted to pulp!

NaMo has given each and everybody a bloody nose! One Man and his Team!

Modern day Ashwamedha!!!

Saar, Rajasuya.

[harbans]

When forces of a certain nature emerge, it is an almost impossible task to subdue/ negate and reverse them. One has to understand the fundamentals about such forces that smash the resistance. There are certain core qualities and attributes to them, one could see them in the levels of depravity the INC and the secular establishment had reached, the loss of faith, the helplessness of the commoner to do anything about it, the sad sense of resignation that was seeping in when the clarion of change started emerging from Gujarat..that's the time i knew the forces that galvanize a 300 plus option have to emerge from the existing frameworks, not a scrappy coalition kind for Dharma to re-establish. I have my 300 plus prediction for NAMO as PM several months before he was announced PM. BUt i will still wait for May the 16th.

[Prem]

In this election I think NaMo has not only finished Congress (< 75) but also humbled all sorts of regional satraps - Mayawati and Mulayam, Lalu and Nitish, but also outside the Hindi heartland - Jayalalitha, Mamata, Naveen and Pawar! And Kejriwal is being swatted to pulp!
NaMo has given each and everybody a bloody nose! One Man and his Team!quote]Modern day Ashwamedha!!!

First he will destroy them and then raise them if they offer cooperation. He has whole India behind him. I think ladies will take the helping hand of Modi Sarkar but Lendas of Dirty politics Nitish, Mulayam, Lalu etc will be flushed down without second thought. Surprise is in the speed by which these stinkers are obliterated .

[ramana]

They were fakers and Congress masks. Once Congress is down they are also.

[vivek.rao]

In 2009, we all thought it was touch and go for stinking COngress. But they improved their score.

I hope Indians really understood the vicious DIEnasty and their nature and destroy them for ever.

[ramana]

Hindu:
Huge turnout in sixth phase of LS polls

On a day dominated by the wall-to-wall coverage on the electronic media of the road show which preceded the filing of nomination papers to the Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency by the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, a record number of voters turned up to exercise their franchise for the 117 constituencies in the six phase of the election spread over 11 states and one union territory.

There was a sense of despondency and concern till the evening on whether the voting per cent in the financial capital of the country-Mumbai would cross the 46 per cent recorded in the 2009 election. However, when the voting finished it was well above the 46 per cent though the exact figures for the constituencies in Mumbai were not available at the time of filing of this report.

A remarkable feature of the election so far, involving 347 of 543 Lok Sabha constituencies and the election to the Orissa Assembly, has been that barring a couple of incidents by process has been peaceful and controversy free. In the latest phase a policeman died in Assam's Kokrajhar district in BSF firing to ward off mobs trying to capture a booth and a suspected Maoist attack on a poll team in Jharkhand.

The highest turnout of 83 per cent was recorded in the lone seat of Puducherry followed by West Bengal (82 per cent for six seats) and 73 per cent for all the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu.

Only two states -- Rajasthan (59.2 per cent for five seats) and Maharashtra (55.33 per cent for 19 seats) -- registered below 60 per cent turnout but in both cases it was higher than 2009.

Lot was at stake for the Congress and the BJP in the current phase. Of the 117 seats up for grabs, Congress holds 37 while BJP has 24. If one were to add 18 seats held by DMK, which it contested in alliance with the Congress, the ruling party has to retain most of these seats to be in the reckoning in formation of the new government.

Current round is a test for two Chief Ministers -- J. Jayalalitha and Mamta Banerjee -- four former Chief Ministers -- Mulayum Singh Yadav, Karunanidhi, Shibu Soren and Babulal Marandi, President Pranab Mukherjee, who represented Jangipur constituency before his election to the high office in 2012 and subsequently by his son Abhijeet, External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid and several prominent union ministers.

Tamil Nadu is the exciting contest as the BJP which succeeded in forging a six-party alliance trying its luck for a debut. It is one state where the pan-India appeal of BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi would be tested.

Besides for the first time since it lost power in 1967 never to return to Fort St. George, the seat of power of the Tamil Nadu government, the Congress is going on its own. The left parties CPI and CPM whose alliance with AIADMK came apart are also compelled to plough a lone furrow. It is AIADMK vs. DMK and untested BJP led alliance. In the outgoing Lok Sabha DMK has 18 seats and AIADMK 9.

Another important contest was in Maharashtra where took place for 19 seats, including six in Mumbai, all of them held by Congress and its ally NCP. Prominent candidates in fray include Union Minister Milind Deora (Mumbai-South) and Priya Dutt (Mumbai-North Central).

Again in West Bengal, where the Congress is going alone, it is a big challenge for the party as it fought the 2009 poll as an alliance partner of Trinamool Congress. Five of the six seats that are going to polls- Raiganj, Maldaha Uttar, Maldaha Dakshin, Jangipur and Murshidabad -- are held by the Congress.

The fourth phase of polling in UP saw voting in constituencies contested by SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mainpuri), his daughter-in-law Dimple Yadav in Kannauj.

As usual not much analysis in the artcle.

Means BJP could be on the rise.

[Prem Kumar]

Tax brake of 0.5% to tax payers and 5/100 marks credit to students as incentive for voting. Poor could be payed a days wage + 1 decent meal voucher to compensate for loss of pay.

Don't penalize but incentivize!

Great point! If Modi comes to power, we will have our hands full in BRF with multiple threads on what to do about governance, secularism, Art 370 etc etc etc

[vivek.rao]

Hindu:
Huge turnout in sixth phase of LS polls

On a day dominated by the wall-to-wall coverage on the electronic media of the road show which preceded the filing of nomination papers to the Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency by the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, a record number of voters turned up to exercise their franchise for the 117 constituencies in the six phase of the election spread over 11 states and one union territory.

There was a sense of despondency and concern till the evening on whether the voting per cent in the financial capital of the country-Mumbai would cross the 46 per cent recorded in the 2009 election. However, when the voting finished it was well above the 46 per cent though the exact figures for the constituencies in Mumbai were not available at the time of filing of this report.

A remarkable feature of the election so far, involving 347 of 543 Lok Sabha constituencies and the election to the Orissa Assembly, has been that barring a couple of incidents by process has been peaceful and controversy free. In the latest phase a policeman died in Assam's Kokrajhar district in BSF firing to ward off mobs trying to capture a booth and a suspected Maoist attack on a poll team in Jharkhand.

The highest turnout of 83 per cent was recorded in the lone seat of Puducherry followed by West Bengal (82 per cent for six seats) and 73 per cent for all the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu.

Only two states -- Rajasthan (59.2 per cent for five seats) and Maharashtra (55.33 per cent for 19 seats) -- registered below 60 per cent turnout but in both cases it was higher than 2009.

Lot was at stake for the Congress and the BJP in the current phase. Of the 117 seats up for grabs, Congress holds 37 while BJP has 24. If one were to add 18 seats held by DMK, which it contested in alliance with the Congress, the ruling party has to retain most of these seats to be in the reckoning in formation of the new government.

Current round is a test for two Chief Ministers -- J. Jayalalitha and Mamta Banerjee -- four former Chief Ministers -- Mulayum Singh Yadav, Karunanidhi, Shibu Soren and Babulal Marandi, President Pranab Mukherjee, who represented Jangipur constituency before his election to the high office in 2012 and subsequently by his son Abhijeet, External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid and several prominent union ministers.

Tamil Nadu is the exciting contest as the BJP which succeeded in forging a six-party alliance trying its luck for a debut. It is one state where the pan-India appeal of BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi would be tested.

Besides for the first time since it lost power in 1967 never to return to Fort St. George, the seat of power of the Tamil Nadu government, the Congress is going on its own. The left parties CPI and CPM whose alliance with AIADMK came apart are also compelled to plough a lone furrow. It is AIADMK vs. DMK and untested BJP led alliance. In the outgoing Lok Sabha DMK has 18 seats and AIADMK 9.

Another important contest was in Maharashtra where took place for 19 seats, including six in Mumbai, all of them held by Congress and its ally NCP. Prominent candidates in fray include Union Minister Milind Deora (Mumbai-South) and Priya Dutt (Mumbai-North Central).

Again in West Bengal, where the Congress is going alone, it is a big challenge for the party as it fought the 2009 poll as an alliance partner of Trinamool Congress. Five of the six seats that are going to polls- Raiganj, Maldaha Uttar, Maldaha Dakshin, Jangipur and Murshidabad -- are held by the Congress.

The fourth phase of polling in UP saw voting in constituencies contested by SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mainpuri), his daughter-in-law Dimple Yadav in Kannauj.

As usual not much analysis in the artcle.

Means BJP could be on the rise.

1. Of the 117 seats up for grabs, Congress holds 37 while BJP has 24. If one were to add 18 seats held by DMK, which it contested in alliance with the Congress

So UPA has 55/117 seats

No alliance with DMK and TMC. CON party might end up with BIG ZERO in TN and WB.

2. Another important contest was in Maharashtra where took place for 19 seats, including six in Mumbai, all of them held by Congress and its ally NCP. Prominent candidates in fray include Union Minister Milind Deora (Mumbai-South) and Priya Dutt (Mumbai-North Central).

UPA 6/6 in Mumbai

No way now.

3. Again in West Bengal, where the Congress is going alone, it is a big challenge for the party as it fought the 2009 poll as an alliance partner of Trinamool Congress. Five of the six seats that are going to polls- Raiganj, Maldaha Uttar, Maldaha Dakshin, Jangipur and Murshidabad -- are held by the Congress.

5/6 in WB are CON party's. Can they win any?

This round CON/UPA might end up with 5-10/117.

[Prem Kumar]

NaMo and his men would have thought of all scenarios, when they first legislated "compulsory voting" in Gujarat assembly.

Instead of calling it "compulsory voting", he should call it "Right to Vote" bill

[Muppalla]

Tax brake of 0.5% to tax payers and 5/100 marks credit to students as incentive for voting. Poor could be payed a days wage + 1 decent meal voucher to compensate for loss of pay.

Don't penalize but incentivize!

Great point! If Modi comes to power, we will have our hands full in BRF with multiple threads on what to do about governance, secularism, Art 370 etc etc etc

I wrote it as a policy paper and sent to BJP, RSS and whoever I got to about two years ago and I still send it to any top-honch I get hold off.

My basic lobby is
(1) run off election (no complex bs like prioritization)
(2) incentive for voting in terms of points to get agri/biz loan. Points in getting job. Attractive but non-expensive subsidies.

Frist one will kill all kinds of vote-banks, Manchurians and blackmailing broker parties. Second one will bring voters to booths.

[Kati]

Tax brake of 0.5% to tax payers and 5/100 marks credit to students as incentive for voting. Poor could be payed a days wage + 1 decent meal voucher to compensate for loss of pay.

Don't penalize but incentivize!

Great point! If Modi comes to power, we will have our hands full in BRF with multiple threads on what to do about governance, secularism, Art 370 etc etc etc

I wrote it as a policy paper and sent to BJP, RSS and whoever I got to about two years ago and I still send it to any top-honch I get hold off.

My basic lobby is
(1) run off election (no complex bs like prioritization)
(2) incentive for voting in terms of points to get agri/biz loan. Points in getting job. Attractive but non-expensive subsidies.

Frist one will kill all kinds of vote-banks, Manchurians and blackmailing broker parties. Second one will bring voters to booths.

GoI should collect a "poll tax" (or service charge) which can cover huge election preparation.
Also, another Rs. 25 or 50 per head should be held as reserve only to be returned on the polling
day to each voter who casts his/her ballot. So, those not voting, will lose the chance to get
their tax return. This will be an incentive for all to vote.
One potential problem will be to handle the cash by the polling officials, and may attract looters. but polling takes place under strict security which can deter would be looters. Other possibility is to issue coupon/voucher in the name of voter bearing the amount which can be en-cashed only through banks. This will prevent looting since if the coupon is not in your name then you can't en-cash it. Period. The poll tax can be collected either part of incometax or through sales tax of 0.01%, which over five years, can generate the sufficient funds to cover the above mechanism.

[Cosmo_R]

A point system like the Canadian visa system could be the answer. If you vote, you get a point. The points favor you in any government or state job, reduce txn charges at banks etc. Choice is yours. combine this with a UID scheme and you may have something.

Nothing too complex and no cash. Just frequent voter miles.

[Cosmo_R]

Sounds like a fishy story from TSP of the Taliban guy in women's dress!

He's part of the third front.

[ManjaM]

Sagarika interviewing retired Officers of the forces.
http://ibnlive.in.com/cnnibnvideos/top-in/467391.html

This phrase "playing the devils advocate" which she uses, has become a catch all for all kinds of poorly thought out arguments and opinions. It is also a not so clever way to save some H&D when ones ass gets handed to the "devils advocate", after all it was the devil making the argument.

[sivab]

I think some statements made in this page with regards to TN have no reality. If BJP will get 3-4 and NDA 8-10 in TN, it will be doing extremely well. Don't get your hopes higher than that.

My sister was the polling officer in charge of a booth in a north TN constituency. All of her staff were males and she had to call police inside a few times when political agents started trouble. This booth had about 1000 voters and voting percentage was ~80%. Since most of the people were elderly village folks, they would tell the choice to my sister in her ear and she would help them press the right button. Vast majority of them voted for ADMK. There was no BJP candidate here and the NDA candidate was a weak third. This constituency was predicted by JV poll to go to ADMK and that is what she saw.

Near her house in Chennai, DMK will win and no BJP candidate. People are not enthused about some of the NDA partners. ADMK/DMK have stranglehold in slums and buy votes with money/freebees there.

BJP has some support in west and south TN. Hope it wins few there.

[Cosmo_R]

To interject some levity as we contemplate the the inflection point that could transform India from a cast of extras for the Jaipur Literary Festival:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrbni0tVBZ8

Donovan.

"I'm mad about Saffron and She's mad about me. I'm mad about (20)14 and 14's just mad about me."

We are transitioning from the season of the Witch

[SaiK]

http://www.vikatan.com/new/article.php? ... &aid=94241 மத்திய புலனாய்வுத் துறை இந்த வாரத்தில் ஒரு சர்வே எடுத்துள்ளார்களாம். அதன்படி, அ.தி.மு.க-வுக்கு 18 இடங்களும், தி.மு.க-வுக்கு 13 இடங்களும் பி.ஜே.பி. கூட்டணிக்கு 9 இடங்களும் கிடைக்கும் என்று சொல்லப்பட்டு உள்ளதாம். மாநில உளவுத் துறை எடுத்த கணிப்பின்படி அ.தி.மு.க-வுக்கு. . .

google translate:
A survey this week எடுத்துள்ளார்களாம் the Central Intelligence Agency. Accordingly, the AIADMK - 18 seats, the DMK - 13 seats to BJP Ullatam coalition is said to be available at 9 locations. AIADMK state polls intelligence - to. . .

funny it translates to CIA! Mr. Eagle: Winning numbers is the title (மிஸ்டர் கழுகு: வெற்றிக்கணக்கு)
Amma: 18
Black Dog: 13
BJP: 9

[sivab]

^^^Google doesnt know about CBI, it is massa.

[muraliravi]

I think some statements made in this page with regards to TN have no reality. If BJP will get 3-4 and NDA 8-10 in TN, it will be doing extremely well. Don't get your hopes higher than that.

My sister was the polling officer in charge of a booth in a north TN constituency. All of her staff were males and she had to call police inside a few times when political agents started trouble. This booth had about 1000 voters and voting percentage was ~80%. Since most of the people were elderly village folks, they would tell the choice to my sister in her ear and she would help them press the right button. Vast majority of them voted for ADMK. There was no BJP candidate here and the NDA candidate was a weak third. This constituency was predicted by JV poll to go to ADMK and that is what she saw.

Near her house in Chennai, DMK will win and no BJP candidate. People are not enthused about some of the NDA partners. ADMK/DMK have stranglehold in slums and buy votes with money/freebees there.

BJP has some support in west and south TN. Hope it wins few there.

Bingo, I have the same information. I hate to say this, but people are getting way too optimistic about TN. First of all NDA is a very unnatural alliance in TN. I will go one step further and ask brfites, how many of you have even considered this, "in the midst of this gung ho feeling, secret exit polls, Modi in Varanasi, congress double digit stuff, BJP has managed to screw itself fantastically in Rajasthan. They were supposed to be cruising at 25/25 and now as per my data, they are 19 and maybe 20. The 3 seats that Maharani has given up due to her ego and top BJP honchos pushing baba ramdev's useless candidates in 2 seats is going to cost them dearly". Similarly, in MP too, I will be surprised if they hit 26/29, I have a gut feeling that the train will stop at 23. So those 5+3 =8 seats is gone from their kitty in the midst of all this premature celebration.

[SaiK]

there are still some large hardcore kangrezwadis in many states - AP (t-gana), MH, KA, etc.

[SwamyG]

In TN, BJP might get 2-3 and its partners 3-4; so my prediction is 5-7 seats for NDA. Any thing more is a Modi wave. Modi's popularity is making people vote for him, but then he is cutting into other parties' vote share. If Modi becomes the PM, and he continues his good work, one can expect BJP to grow more in TN. Of course, RSS has to increase its shaalas meanwhile.

[Anantha]

Thoo on Mumbaikars who did not vote.
As a friend who voted said
Mumbai spirit is resilient and alive. They withstood the elections as well.

Can some one post the picture from the following url, I am unable to do it
http://postimg.org/image/jmdoumyql/

[Singha]

but in candle light vigils for some aman ki tamasha type do, they are #1

[SanjayC]

Thoo on Mumbaikars who did not vote.
As a friend who voted said
Mumbai spirit is resilient and alive. They withstood the elections as well.

Can some one post the picture from the following url, I am unable to do it
http://postimg.org/image/jmdoumyql/

[Arjun]

Punjab and some Delhi classes seem to be strangely disconnected from the rest of India as this election progresses.

Hopefully, Modi's visits can make a difference: Modi juggernaut in Punjab today

[Singha]

some of punjab is deeply in love with AAP. perhaps being a state full of SME entrepreneurs the corruption in govt offices and permits bites them much more than salaried type states. thats where the AAP message of corruption first will find takers.

[Atri]

Typically, the candle light walas vote.. so do the dedicated cadres and supporters. Heck, even those who otherwise only share cute-puppy videos and like the photos of chicks, even most of them voted this time. There is huge section of people who is on internet but away from all this - it is they who did not vote.

There has been 11-13% bump in mumbai figures. That itself constitutes around 12-13 lakh extra voters. This is HUGE. Of course, I expected huger wave. lakhs of people did come out and found their names missing. If there names would have been present the voting would have been 65%.

The voting did not take place in kalyan-thane-dombivali region. That region is satirically referred to as the only Hindu-Rashtra on planet earth. The contest there became interesting when Muslims of Mumbra voted enmasse for NCP candidate and suddenly the MNS-SS rivalry took center stage. It is here where voting remained at 42%. The beneficiary as usual will mostly be NCP. In Bhiwandi, the BJP candidate was defector from NCP, kapil Patil. He came to BJP one day before filing a nomination. It was good move by Munde, but I wonder how much would the voters accept him.

Rest of Mumbai, I am quite optimistic. In Mumbai NC, there was 55% vote. The booth I was frequenting saw a flurry of slum-votes (mostly dalits from interior maharashtra) poast 16:30. That pushed the voting up. Now traditionally they vote for INC. But RPI being in NDA will help as major chunk of that came to the side of dharma.

[Muppalla]

Bingo, I have the same information. I hate to say this, but people are getting way too optimistic about TN. First of all NDA is a very unnatural alliance in TN. I will go one step further and ask brfites, how many of you have even considered this, "in the midst of this gung ho feeling, secret exit polls, Modi in Varanasi, congress double digit stuff, BJP has managed to screw itself fantastically in Rajasthan. They were supposed to be cruising at 25/25 and now as per my data, they are 19 and maybe 20. The 3 seats that Maharani has given up due to her ego and top BJP honchos pushing baba ramdev's useless candidates in 2 seats is going to cost them dearly". Similarly, in MP too, I will be surprised if they hit 26/29, I have a gut feeling that the train will stop at 23. So those 5+3 =8 seats is gone from their kitty in the midst of all this premature celebration.

Even 3 to 4 BJP seats in TN is really huge.

Regarding Rajasthan and MP, the voting percentages are way less than the Assembly voting percentages. Per your thinking there could be 8 loss straight to congress.

[SaiK]

so, there are more turds in major cities especially class A ones. perhaps, these are the ones who have made lot kala money in the kitty to fund aaplets.

tn: what modi should do is energize those bjp seat constituencies with better infrastructure and show the taste of gujarat to them.. that way, the neighboring seats will automagically look towards growth and development. after that kickstart, it is all about is growing better, and that is healthy.