Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 26 Apr 2014 10:47

Frederic wrote:TamilNadu numbers seem reasonable. This is rooted in ground level reality. Dreaming about 30+ for NDA in TN is , well, just dreaming. NaMo has to deliver sixers in Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan, UP and Bihar.

6-10 seats from TN are already part of a scenario of 300+ seats for NDA.

The 543 guys include a disclaimer that the NaMo wave could invalidate their predictions. The fact of the matter is that they don't really know. Their entire sample size in TN is a few thousand (if I understand correctly), and the seat projection is an extrapolation made by fitting parameterized models to this small dataset. So we could still be in for a large surprise on May 16.

Also see the tweets below for what they are worth:

Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3
TN experts @prasannavishy and @gajamani have analyzed TN http://5forty3.in/2014/04/modi-vs-lady-vs-enga-daddy/ … but NDA could take 15+ based on raw numbers! #Methinks

Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3
An astonishing 45% youth voters of TN seem to have voted for NDA cutting across caste-lines http://5forty3.in/2014/04/modi-vs-lady-vs-enga-daddy/ … Gamechanger on 16th May??

Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3
The stunning picture from Dravidian Heartland http://5forty3.in/2014/04/modi-vs-lady-vs-enga-daddy/ … Modi is unstoppable and India has been Modified from UP to TN!

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 26 Apr 2014 10:57

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 26 Apr 2014 10:57

ramana wrote:The odd thing is BJP and Shiv Sena already knew that voters were missing in Pune but did not raise a ruckus in Mumbai.

Ramana Garu, ER list is published as early as September of every year. So current list was available from 2013 Sep. What Voters, whose names were missing, did till the last date of filing nomination?

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 26 Apr 2014 11:29

chaanakya wrote:
ramana wrote:The odd thing is BJP and Shiv Sena already knew that voters were missing in Pune but did not raise a ruckus in Mumbai.
Ramana Garu, ER list is published as early as September of every year. So current list was available from 2013 Sep. What Voters, whose names were missing, did till the last date of filing nomination?

Equivalent Questions:
1) What did the woman do till the rape was completed? Why didnt she complain about the rapist before the rape was done?

2) Why did the house owner complain of burglary only after he came back after his vacation? Why didnt he complain while the burglary is in progress? Couldnt he have checked on his house during his vacation.

Your question and my questions above have the same answer.

That the victim might have had oppurtunities to check on his belongings/rapists charecter/right to vote is irrelevant.
It isnt the duty of the victim to check on them every second. The moment the victim knew of the crime, the victim has complained.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 26 Apr 2014 11:32

chaanakya wrote:
ramana wrote:The odd thing is BJP and Shiv Sena already knew that voters were missing in Pune but did not raise a ruckus in Mumbai.
Ramana Garu, ER list is published as early as September of every year. So current list was available from 2013 Sep. What Voters, whose names were missing, did till the last date of filing nomination?

This is typical babudom answer, Sir. With full due respect. This is the answer money-lenders charging 200% interest to poor have used since ages.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 26 Apr 2014 11:35

How is that Knave Mani Aiyar doing in his constutuency? Any update?

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 26 Apr 2014 11:41

Tamil daily DINAMALAR published the below photo in their 25th APRIL 2014 newspaper edition (Page-11).

The information under the photo says that
At the Vikravandi Government high school polling booth in Vikravandi town coming
under Villipuram Lok Sabha (reserved for SC) seat, an AIADMK party worker by name
Kumaresan is giving money & asking women voters to vote for 2 LEAVES symbol

Normally - this wont happen if party conscious opposition party booth agents call in their
nearby workers to come and fight out against blatant vote purchasing. But in this case it
seems that opposition party booth agents (like DMK, DMDK in this case) have been bought
out first & the scene made clear for pumping of money to lined up voters. It seems the police
& polling booth officials did not allow booth capturing and hence ADMK workers had to resort
to vote purchasing right at the booths.

But we cant be sure that the voters who took money would have voted for the candidate whose workers
where pushing money. More so in TN.

Wonder if this case has already been notified by DINAMALAR to Tamilnadu EC officials.
The guy in the photo must have gone underground by now.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 11:48

T S Sudhir ‏@Iamtssudhir 3h

#KCR hopes to wield power both in Hyderabad and New Delhi after May 16. His interview to @ElectionExpress : http://indiatoday.intoday.in/video/chan ... 57622.html …

As I have stated before whoever forms gov in Telengana and Andra will join NDA at the center except for CON of course.

ABP News ‏@abpnewstv 28m

Eggs thrown at Chiranjeevi for calling Modi 'Hitler', 'tyrant' . Read: http://www.abplive.in/india/2014/04/26/ ... 1tR0lOIy_I …

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 26 Apr 2014 11:52

Report is that Police have been generally helpful to Two leaves in TN this time. However, Voters have been smarter. They are three timing and vote whoever promises to deliver. This time it is Amma. However Lenin's protege has put up spirited fight notwithstanding his Bro kicking and fighting. This election has seen Stalin emerge as undisputed leader of DeeMaK.

NDA has fighting chance to get about 10 seats with BJP scoring a few. Amma will be contained .

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 26 Apr 2014 11:56

Myself ..... and my family ... voted for Modi at South Chennai (5 votes). My mother ... a lifelong ADMK voter for the very first time voted for BJP. I was absent in BR and at work since last 10 days - due to sudden preponement of my sister's betrothal and had to go to Sivagangai to run the family event. But we came just in time from our native place on voting day & there was not much rush in the closing time at my booth. Whom ever i was asking in my middle class locality ... had voted for BJP and more specifically for the sake of Modi. Most of these people were ADMK voters in last LS elections. One guy said that the local BJP candidate had lost his deposit in 2009 LS elections in same constituency but this time he voted for BJP ... all for sake of seeing Modi become PM.

In Sivaganga too - there was an undercurrent for BJP's H.Raja but ADMK was the front runner. Again ADMK was pumping huge amounts of money in interior villages and their candidate was a Kallar community guy and Kallars live in good numbers at this place. But most of the auto drivers, tea shop owners and many shop owners were indicating that they would vote for BJP. INC's Karti Chidambaram ...as per his own workers .. was only fighting to get the 2nd place ... since if he came 3rd or lost his deposit - then next time Sudarshana Nachiappan (current MoS and a RS MP) would get selected for contesting as INC candidate from Sivaganga in next LS elections and the Chidambarams would get eclipsed even with in INC party circle from Sivaganga . Minority votes was expected to get split between INC & DMK (who have actually put up a former ADMK MLA as their candidate here). H.Raja's problem is that ... he is a Brahmin and their community is quite low in Sivagangai ... but he seems to have caught the fancy of Chettiar community (the same community from which PC comes and this community gave up on PC a long time back itself). Even though low in numbers - the Chettiars appeared enthusiastic about voting for BJP. It seems most of the campaign of INC was .... using mikes & audiosets blaring from with in autos placed in front of local Mosques and Christian organization run schools. DMK's campaign was lacklustre ... seems Alagiri had good number of supporters from this region and they were either absent or silently helping BJP workers. But there were also claims of DMK guys pumping in money in some villages near to Ramanathapuram LS seat. Rajnath Singh came for a rally near Karaikudi in Sivaganga and soon after the rally finished ... local police found a bag holding 8 Lakh rupees kept nearby the stage. BJP workers were complaining that ..it was stage managed by ADMK workers.

There were power cuts of 2 - 3 hours in the days leading to voting day and that should pushed more people to vote for NDA (rather than DMK since even they are caught up with doing nothing on power supply front).

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 26 Apr 2014 12:02

Virupaksha wrote:
Equivalent Questions:
1) What did the woman do till the rape was completed? Why didnt she complain about the rapist before the rape was done?

2) Why did the house owner complain of burglary only after he came back after his vacation? Why didnt he complain while the burglary is in progress? Couldnt he have checked on his house during his vacation.

Your question and my questions above have the same answer.

That the victim might have had oppurtunities to check on his belongings/rapists charecter/right to vote is irrelevant.
It isnt the duty of the victim to check on them every second. The moment the victim knew of the crime, the victim has complained.

If you don't assert you rights these things will happen.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 12:02

Sankarshan Thakur ‏@SankarshanT 11h

.@NitishKumarJDU is in a political labyrinth and must figure a way out; will be tough emerging from this poll. #NitishKumar #BiharPolls

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 1h

This fellow was among the Trimurthies who egged Nitish to break up with BJP and now see his lectures! https://twitter.com/SankarshanT/status/ ... 1110366208 …

NitiCentral.com ‏@NitiCentral 1h

Bihar's law and order in sorry state: Supreme Court http://www.niticentral.com/2014/04/26/b ... 16682.html …

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 26 Apr 2014 12:03

prahaar wrote: This is typical babudom answer, Sir. With full due respect. This is the answer money-lenders charging 200% interest to poor have used since ages.

One can not wake up a person pretending to Sleep.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 26 Apr 2014 12:23

chaanakya wrote:
prahaar wrote: This is typical babudom answer, Sir. With full due respect. This is the answer money-lenders charging 200% interest to poor have used since ages.
One can not wake up a person pretending to Sleep.

Babus never accept fault, this is the fact in India. Weather, Junta, Neta are all at fault, but never the babu.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 26 Apr 2014 12:24

Sudarshana Natchiappan will inevitably eclipse Karthi Chidambaram.And Natchiappan has carefully cultivated a pro-mandal image.
SLji,
Does Sudarshana Natchiappan belong to the kallar community?

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 26 Apr 2014 12:32

chaanakya wrote:
Virupaksha wrote:
Equivalent Questions:
1) What did the woman do till the rape was completed? Why didnt she complain about the rapist before the rape was done?

2) Why did the house owner complain of burglary only after he came back after his vacation? Why didnt he complain while the burglary is in progress? Couldnt he have checked on his house during his vacation.

Your question and my questions above have the same answer.

That the victim might have had oppurtunities to check on his belongings/rapists charecter/right to vote is irrelevant.
It isnt the duty of the victim to check on them every second. The moment the victim knew of the crime, the victim has complained.
If you don't assert you rights these things will happen.

and you sir have just questioned those who were trying to assert their rights.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 26 Apr 2014 13:11

Virupaksha wrote:
chaanakya wrote:

If you don't assert you rights these things will happen.
and you sir have just questioned those who were trying to assert their rights.

And they still have time to get enrolled in voter list just before assembly election and kick sh!t out of this govt, no? It's not like you missed once, you can't get in next time.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 26 Apr 2014 13:24

svenkat wrote:Sudarshana Natchiappan will inevitably eclipse Karthi Chidambaram.And Natchiappan has carefully cultivated a pro-mandal image.
SLji,
Does Sudarshana Natchiappan belong to the kallar community?

I am not exactly sure but he is supposed to come under one of those Mukullathor group.
He is definitely far more humble than PC and he has already been a Sivaganga LS MP.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 13:35

shahid siddiqui ‏@shahid_siddiqui 24m

"@dna: Congress could consider giving support to Third Front: Salman Khurshid http://dnai.in/cbhE " Jang se pehle hi haar man li .

This is what the last round of polls and Kashi roadshow has done to the CON.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 13:41

How many times has this important news run on MSM? If not why? Is this not an issue of national importance?
------------------------------------------------->
UPA Government’s criminal disdain for Supreme Court

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/04/26/u ... 16672.html

Around 2011, Germany had sent details of Indians holding accounts in Liechtenstein Bank to stow away their ill-gotten wealth from the country. On July 4, 2011 the Supreme Court had given a judgement directing the Centre to release the information and make the names and details public. Till date the names haven’t been declared nor the details shared. A severe Supreme Court has labelled this failure to disclose the information “gross contempt of court”.

...
The Supreme Court upheld Jethmalani’s case and demanded the information be divulged by Tuesday, April 30, 2014.

...
This petition and the judgement are very important for the country for two reasons.

First, it shows a resolve, at least in the judiciary, to bring back the monies stowed away into the country and to bring the criminals to justice. If rumours are to be believed, trillions of dollars have leaked out of the country – a theft that has gone a long way in keeping India in a ‘Third World’ country. In fact, it is said that the greatest expense to India comes from the scams that we have been subject to. In the last decade, there have been a minimum of two scams exposed per year, each running into lakhs of crores of rupees that have cheated every person in the country to food, security, education, health and infrastructure that was rightfully ours.

Second, this petition throws light on the Centre’s determination to protect criminals. It shows their anti-India and anti-people doggedness. Having been privy to the information, an intervention from the Supreme Court was hardly necessary. A revelation of this proportion should have been automatically and voluntarily been made public by the existing Government.

But the Government created a situation where the Supreme Court had to intervene and give a directive to share the information. In response, the Centre showed its scorn for the judiciary of the country acting on the very laws framed by the legislative, which is the Government. The Centre has proved that it believes that it is beyond law and beyond the country itself.

I am a little disappointed with the BJP strategists. If they had raised this issue a little earlier and got the government either to release the list or ignore the SC order, they could have gone to town against the CON government.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 26 Apr 2014 13:53

as per ToI print edition, DMK seems to be confused and worried regarding the election

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 26 Apr 2014 14:01

april 30th is still four days away and without knowing whos on the list (to cover their own backsides), do you expect them to go full throttle?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 14:03

Yes there is a risk that some of BJP backers are on the list too.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 26 Apr 2014 14:07

narendra nath ‏@iamnarendranath 1h

Talked to Central minister,RSS,BJP and JDU leader in last 3 hours. Interestingly their practical prediction for BJP almost same-190-220

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 Apr 2014 14:08

of all persons why NDTiwari to seek blessings, rajnath ji?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 14:11

Shefali Vaidya ‏@ShefVaidya 3h

The lady says land was sold to help a UdyogPati in Gujarat. How about the land that was sold to help Pati Udyog in Haryana? (via fb)

Falak shabir ‏@falakshabir02 49m

Same Team RT @ANI_news Amethi: Priyanka Gandhi Vadra interacts with AAP workers pic.twitter.com/kzSvPXtgj4 @mediacrooks @anilkohli54 #ECActNow

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Apr 2014 14:12

How hard would it be to Put NaMo's name on the list, make it public and post election, say sorry-That was by mistake, By that time damage would have been done.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 14:14

Raghunath AS ‏@asraghunath 50m

The route used by Swan Telecom promoter to transfer money to Kalaingar TV pic.twitter.com/YqAkYWgC19

Note: The transfer rates
1st leg>> 209-206 = 3 cr
2nd leg>> 206-200 = 6 cr

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 26 Apr 2014 14:15

IndraD wrote:
of all persons why NDTiwari to seek blessings, rajnath ji?

must have been having problems with you know what.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 14:18

pankajs wrote:How many times has this important news run on MSM? If not why? Is this not an issue of national importance?
------------------------------------------------->
UPA Government’s criminal disdain for Supreme Court

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/04/26/u ... 16672.html
Around 2011, Germany had sent details of Indians holding accounts in Liechtenstein Bank to stow away their ill-gotten wealth from the country. On July 4, 2011 the Supreme Court had given a judgement directing the Centre to release the information and make the names and details public. Till date the names haven’t been declared nor the details shared. A severe Supreme Court has labelled this failure to disclose the information “gross contempt of court”.

Chidu's trying to dodge the SC rap. SC commented on the German disclosure but he is talking abt Swiss disclosure. Will the MSM pin him down by pointing this out and demanding his answer on the German supplied list on Liechtenstein Bank accounts?

Times of India ‏@timesofindia 57m

India received reply from Swiss government on information sharing regarding black money a week ago, govt looking at reply: Chidambaram

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 14:40

Alok Bhatt ‏@alok_bhatt 2h

Dear BJP supporters, Cry we must on #missingfromlist but DO NOT demand repoll... we r winning Maharashtra. Thank you

Ashutosh Patankar ‏@Ashutosh_BJP 1h

@alok_bhatt Voting percentages have gone down in M pockets. Super increase in Middle Class Marathi n Gujarati voters.

This is the reason why BJP/Sena are quite on repoll, etc.

The Indian Express ‏@IndianExpress 2h

Modi has worked for RSS, whose leader was against voting rights to women: Rahul Gandhi #Elections2014 http://iexp.in/OOZ81392

Sheer desperation at work!

The Indian Express ‏@IndianExpress 2h

Education has become a business in Gujarat: Rahul Gandhi #Elections2014 http://iexp.in/OOZ81392

One more ..

The Indian Express ‏@IndianExpress 2h

Modi gave more money to Adani than what we gave to MNREGA: Rahul Gandhi in Gujarat #Elections2014 http://iexp.in/OOZ81392

One more ..

EconomicTimes ‏@EconomicTimes 2h

#SoniaGandhi: God save the country from the Gujarat model (Times Now)

Appeal to people not working so now appeal to GOD to save CON ..

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 26 Apr 2014 15:31

James B · Post by **James B** » 26 Apr 2014 15:34

Sarkari beti Priyanka Vadra must leave her Lodhi Estate bungalow

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/04/26/t ... 16729.html

Bianca Vadra occupying government property without holding any government/constitutional position for 17 years. What did NDA govt. do? She should have been booted out then itself.

These are the entitlements that these people (Congies/MSM/so-called intellectuals) fear that they will lose once Modi comes to power.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 26 Apr 2014 15:49

KLP Dubey wrote:
Frederic wrote:TamilNadu numbers seem reasonable. This is rooted in ground level reality. Dreaming about 30+ for NDA in TN is , well, just dreaming. NaMo has to deliver sixers in Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan, UP and Bihar.
6-10 seats from TN are already part of a scenario of 300+ seats for NDA.

The 543 guys include a disclaimer that the NaMo wave could invalidate their predictions. The fact of the matter is that they don't really know. Their entire sample size in TN is a few thousand (if I understand correctly), and the seat projection is an extrapolation made by fitting parameterized models to this small dataset. So we could still be in for a large surprise on May 16.

Also see the tweets below for what they are worth:

Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3
TN experts @prasannavishy and @gajamani have analyzed TN http://5forty3.in/2014/04/modi-vs-lady-vs-enga-daddy/ … but NDA could take 15+ based on raw numbers! #Methinks

Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3
An astonishing 45% youth voters of TN seem to have voted for NDA cutting across caste-lines http://5forty3.in/2014/04/modi-vs-lady-vs-enga-daddy/ … Gamechanger on 16th May??

Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3
The stunning picture from Dravidian Heartland http://5forty3.in/2014/04/modi-vs-lady-vs-enga-daddy/ … Modi is unstoppable and India has been Modified from UP to TN!

All these predictions are based on what people really want. They discount EVM fraud. I am fearful. Hope Shri Vitthal of Pandharpur protects Bharat Mata from the congressi asura.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 26 Apr 2014 16:01

IndraD wrote:
of all persons why NDTiwari to seek blessings, rajnath ji?

Amazing. RNS is just another average run on the mill leader who just happens to be the president of BJP. Without NaMo this ship would have long sunk. No wonder this vote is not for BJP- irrespective of what Sanku ji thinks - this is a vote for NaMo.

Never again should such a situation be allowed to arise. That I hope will be NaMo ji's legacy.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 16:04

Ratnakar Sadasyula ‏@ScorpiusMaximus 3h

Early days but going by current trends, NDA may touch 280+ overall, and may not really need new allies post polls.

Ratnakar Sadasyula ‏@ScorpiusMaximus 3h

While NDA has done really well in Mah, UP, Bihar so far, it is the unexpected success in Assam, Odisha, TN, that is making the difference.

Ratnakar Sadasyula ‏@ScorpiusMaximus 17h

My Predictions after April 24th round of polling, not included Kerala and Bengal in this pic.twitter.com/JWnaQ1UtB9

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 26 Apr 2014 16:10

chaanakya wrote:
SaiK wrote:i am more concerned at this EVM fraud system than these stupid tv guys.
Well Saik. I did check similar instances when LED lights were glowing for wrong button. Votes don't get recorded for wrong button. It is circuit malfunction in may cases. But in all cases , EVMs are replaced with reserves available. However BEL and ECIL could have made system more robust, I think they are failing in their duty but on the other hand think of sheer number of EVMs moving from one place to another in tropical climate, hot, dusty and humid. Some systems are likely to malfunction. As for EVM manipulation by remote etc, they are sheer fantasy of some wisecracks.

Reminds me of an exchange between Russian and American space scientists.

American scientists explained to Russians a unique challenge they were grappling with. American astronauts were facing a problem in space: they had to write records and maintain logs, but the damn pens won't work as lack of gravity will play havoc with flow of ink. The American scientists were burning midnight oil to solve the problem and invent a pen that will work perfectly in space. "So how have you solved this problem"? they asked Russians. The Russians replied: "We use pencils."

EVMs are the zero-gravity pens of election commission while the whole world uses pencils (paper ballots). Paper ballots don't have LED lights that glow in the wrong place. They don't record wrong votes if you have stamped some other party. They don't have a circuit malfunction. They need not be made more robust with extra engineering. A sheer number of paper ballots can be easily moved from one place to another in tropical climate. But then, some people prefer pens in space.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 26 Apr 2014 16:15

BJP should try getting into opposition first if possible in TN, should give tough time to AMMA

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 26 Apr 2014 16:20

Ballot stuffing was quite common in those days. Paper ballot is not like an amazing simple and foolproof method.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 16:25

Brahma Chellaney ‏@Chellaney 2h

Singh has covered his flanks: he has fobbed off his leadership failures on Sonia, while his brother's BJP ties may buy him retirement peace.