Shiv,
Please note that I am looking at this -- or at least trying to -- purely from an American perspective. India is not in the picture. This is purely between Pakistan, US/NATO and Afghanistan. I have made no comments/assertions/critiques on how India has responded to terror compared to the Americans. So please don't drag the discussion there.
Having said that, let me comment on your post.
shiv wrote:Americans have more faith in their country than their country can actually deliver. That is described as fierce patriotism.
1. Agreed.
shiv wrote:Failure to deliver after a lot of hype is a common thing in politics all over the world, but the difference in reactions to US failure compared with reactions to Indian failure to deliver tells me about how people are taught to view the US and how Indians are taught to view India.
2. Agreed
shiv wrote:The US will never control Pakistan
3. Agreed again. Just like the US has NOT controlled Cuba, Iran and NoKo. They paid a very heavy price "sort" out Iraq, but have they really "sorted" out Iraq? Not really. That country is just smouldering and could break out in flames at any time. A
regime change has been affected in Libya. As it has been done in the whole of the middle east. The US cannot claim any credit for that. This has been achieved completely by the will of the mango people in those countries. The most the US can claim credit for is giving them moral support and *some* military support.
However, it remains to be seen if these new regimes will be better than the regimes they overthrew.
The US wants to see countries become Japan, SoKo, Germany and even Russia and all the assorted "stans" emerging from the break-up of Russia after dismantling. Yugoslavia and the pieces also qualify. That is what they would take as a success. The countries do not have to be US poodles, as long as they focus on their own development and remain neutral
I do not believe they have a successful template to follow in the Islamic world. Jihad and the Jihad mentality is a tough nut to crack. Their tactics are being developed as we speak via trial and error. What we have seen are a few successes -- Drones and drone warfare -- and a *LOT* of failures. That does not mean that they give up trying.
shiv wrote:they are totally at the mercy of the same Pakistanis who have been tormenting India for decades.
4. Agreed that they are at the mercy of Pakistanis.
That due to the fact that Afghanistan is a landlocked country and the best exit route passes through Pakistan. And their *LONGstanding* enmity with Iran. Imagine what the situation would be like if they had the option of using Chabahar? They are also guilty of underestimating Pakistan's ability to deceive them and overestimating their own ability to manage the situation. From an American point of view, India being tormented is incidental. They should have paid more attention to the Indian experience. They understand that now.
shiv wrote:They are too scared to declare it a terrorist state and that fear is covered with all sorts of excuses - some of which you made on America's behalf. But what is even more ironic/funny is that declaring Pakistan a terrorist state will fail to have any effect on Pakistan. The US knows fully well how useless such a declaration would be in controlling Pakistan so they are bending over backwards to make it appear like it would be a bad thing and that they are "this close" to declaring Pakistan a terrorist state.
5. Fact remains that labeling Pakistan a Terrorist State results in a loss of leverage. It is also very counter productive. There is Iran, Cuba and NoKo to see as examples. You call it excuses -- fine. But "scared"? Well, it is yes and no. There is a price to pay based on their immediate situation. There is always a threat of a terrorist attack on US cities. In spite of all the heightened security, there are plenty of soft spots that can be exploited. Is that scary? Of course it is, but I don't believe that will stop the Americans from taking action. The question is will the action they take and the decisions they make *now* be proved right in 10 years remains to be seen.
shiv wrote:Frankly all this is timepass and my gloating is only to make a point that few American fans are willing to see. If the US could have controlled Pakistan they would not have waited 3 Presidential terms. Even WW2 did not last that long, nor did the American Civil war or the Korean war. Vietnam lasted longer though, and you know why. The USA was in denial for years, based on governmental misinformation of Americans that all was well.
6. We agreed that the US *CANNOT* control Pakistan. They can coerce and influence Pakistan to do their bidding by using a mix of carrots and sticks. No guarantee that will be successful *ALL* the time. That does not mean that they will also FAIL *ALL* the time. It appears that in the post 9-11 era they are more *WRONG* than *RIGHT* for allowing Pakistanis to take them on all sorts of rides. However, this game is not about to end today.
shiv wrote:Pakistan is the Taliban. Pakistan was Al Qaeda.
7. Agreed that Taliban is Pakistan. Al Qaeda merged into Pakistan after the US hounded them out of Afghanistan. They had no choice. Al-Q had a lot of contempt for Pakistan and Pakistanis in general. In fact, it took a *LOT* of belly aching from the Pakistanis to make them acknowledge Kashmir was a problem if I recall.
shiv wrote:The advantage to the US government of having fiercely patriotic Americans is that the latter are fiercely stupid and unable to see beyond their noses if the government tells them lies, or misinforms them.
8. This is where I disagree. The American people I am talking about believe in their country. I don't fault them for that. Have they been lied to by their government about foreign policy? Yes they have. Have they been ignorant of what is happening outside the US? Yes they have. Does that make them gullible? Yes. Does that make them ignorant? Yes. Does that make them *STUPID* -- absolutely NOT. You see stupidity is permanent. Being gullible and ignorant can be changed very fast. Trust me, that is happening.
shiv wrote:The US government does not want to fight or antagonize Pakistan. They want to mollycoddle and hold them because the US imagines it has more to lose than Pakistan if they don't. Fiercely patriotic Americans do not realize that Pakistan has the US by the balls and choose to believe that the US can somehow prevail.
9. Agreed that the Americans have lost the appetite to fight another war. They will try their best not to start one. But if you put their backs to the wall and expect them to surrender, that will not happen. They *will* come out fighting with all they have.
10. Do the Pakistanis have the US by the balls? Yes and no. Pakistanis control the land routes to and from Afghanistan. The Americans are pretty vulnerable on that point. Pakistan has nukes and are irrational and the Americans are weary of that -- as is the rest of this world(and that includes China). But the Americans also have a huge grip on Pakistan's balls as was amply demonstrated. They can squeeze Pakistan in several different ways, it is a question of who is stronger. I think the US has enough resources to coerce Pakistan to do its bidding.
shiv wrote:America's future and its relations with Pakistan would not be India's problem if America had not constantly chosen to arm Pakistan and use Pakistan's fear of India to make Pakis do things for them. The reason the Americans fear the Taliban now is that suddenly, the Mussalmans of Pakistan have discovered self respect and feel they should not suck up to the US in exchange for bribes. That is a very good development for India because the US will no longer be able to pour in money and arms into Pakistan out of "US self interest".
11. Have the Pakistanis suddenly discovered self respect? I am not so sure. We have already seen what a disaster the Taliban led republic in Afghanistan was prior to 9-11. It looks like that is where they want to go again.
12. Please acknowledge that India was not strong enough to influence Americans to not sell arms to Pakistan. All we could do was bellyache about it. Today, we are in a position to do a lot more because of our growing economy and overall development. We are slowly assuming a leadership role in the "comity" of nations.
Let me close by saying that our ability to influence the US -- and the rest of the world -- is not something that will happen overnight. It has to be earned. However, please note that it has grown by leaps and bounds in the past decade. We are heading in the right direction.