https://thediplomat.com/2024/07/why-mod ... hird-term/
Why Modi Made Russia the Destination of the First Bilateral Visit of His Third Term?
The likely return of Trump as U.S. president is expected to reduce American support for Ukraine. Modi could be eyeing a peacemaker’s role in that conflict.
Elizabeth Roche, July 03, 2024
On July 8, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will embark on a three-day visit to Russia and Austria. This marks his first bilateral visits since taking oath for a rare third consecutive term as India’s prime minister last month.
Traditionally, Modi has chosen one or more of India’s neighbors for his first visits abroad, emphasizing India’s neighborhood as a foreign policy priority.
So, the choice of Russia and Austria this time may seem odd, but a closer look could help discern the “method behind the madness.”
Given the intense global flux, India’s stated aim has been multi-alignment, that is joining hands with different partners at different points in time to maximize New Delhi’s advantage. A case in point: India getting Russian oil at discounted prices despite Western objections in the midst of the Ukraine conflict.
With Modi giving the 2024 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Kazakhstan that Putin is attending, a miss, and no indication yet that he will attend the Moscow-hosted BRICS summit later this year, this bilateral visit by Modi, as the Ukraine war rages, will send out some key messages. It could also address some issues.
For starters, this will be Modi’s first Russia visit in five years. It comes at a time when the Russian president has few credible friends.
Annual India-Russia summits have been a regular feature since 2000, when New Delhi and Moscow alternatively began hosting the meetings. However, there has been a break in these summit meetings in recent years.
In 2021, Putin visited New Delhi. Then on February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. That shredded ties between Western nations and Russia.
Although Modi did meet Putin in 2022, this was not in Moscow but on the sidelines of the SCO meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. It was at that meeting that Modi told Putin that “this is not an era of war.”
New Delhi and Moscow have enjoyed close ties for decades, especially after India and the former Soviet Union signed the “Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation” in 1971. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, their relationship was redefined.
The annual summits have been a key means to anchor long-standing ties in a changing world. Defense and energy have been crucial elements of a reframed partnership but ties are still flagging, as an economically stronger India relies more on the West for technology and investments.
Meanwhile, Russia has been drifting towards India’s strategic rival China following tensions with the West, after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Russia’s move into the Chinese orbit is worrisome for India, which is in the midst of a tense border standoff with China.
In 2022, just days before the Ukraine invasion, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a “friendship without limits” much to New Delhi’s chagrin.
Against this backdrop, engaging Russia politically while trying to add more practical economic elements to the relationship is imperative. Most of India’s military hardware is still of Soviet-Russian origin, which needs spares. To cite an example, the bulk of the Indian Air Force fighter aircraft is of Russian origin. India has begun diversifying defense procurement but needs Russia to deliver critical spares and some pending batteries of the S-400 air defense systems. India is also looking for replacements for some Sukhoi fighter aircraft. Once a dependable defense partner, New Delhi has been worried about Russia sharing sensitive technology with China or going slow on the supply of spares in the event of clashes with China and/or Pakistan.
Hence, balancing ties between Russia and the West has been key for New Delhi.
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Gautam