The Levant crisis.(Israel,SYRIA,Lebanon,etc) - II

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Feb 2016 06:55

red is active front

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 11 Feb 2016 09:48

Nit,strangely some time ago when in the region,a non-Emirati living there espoused the thought that we would rush in to protect our own. The stark truth is that we do not have the kind of resources to do just that.Though we have been rather good at airlifts in the past,it requires far greater amphib capability than we have at the moment and the ability of the IN to proceed into the Gulf along with )again missing ) ro-ro transports,passr. vessels,merchant ships,etc. to evacuate our kith and kin.The UAE and the other Sunni/Saudi kingdoms already have a strong mil relationship shown in action in the Yemen,even if they've been stymied on the battlefield there.

The Western powers have already worked out squatting rights for their navies,etc. with the Sunni sheikdoms.No room for us ,plus why would we want to antagonize the Iranians with whom we plan to increase eco and strat. cooperation? I paraphrase from Bismark again in the ME context,that "the ME is not worth the life of one Indian jawan "!

What India should forcefully enunciate though is that a UNSC task group should sit asap and work out regional solutions for a post ISIS/AlQ situation,where both Sunni and Shiite interests are accommodated and a UN peace-keeping intl force comprising of many nations, including veteran peacekeeper India,be organized when the need arises.I don't think that ther eis going to be any momentum this year until the US Pres. election is over.Every day sees O'Bomber's influence diminish and his lukewarm attitude towards the region and ISIS has been roundly condemned by all.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 11 Feb 2016 10:53

Frontline updates from 10th Feb:

Lattakia: SAA+ are closing in Kinsabba from three sides before striking there. At some places they are on the last hills surrounding the place. The idea is that either the militants of the FSA Coastal Division plus others surrender or they escape into Idlib, else there will be blood bath at Kinsabba. SAA+ expect stiff resistance at this location.
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syr ... -kinsibba/

Northern Aleppo: YPG / SDF have captured Mannagh air base and the village but resistance and fighting going on all around. SAA+ have captured Kafr Naya which means that Tall Riffat further north is the next strike. South towards Bayanoun gains have been slower.
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/hez ... rn-aleppo/

Move from Hama to Raqqa: SAA+ captured three points from ISIS yesterday.
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/28141/

Darayya, Damascus: Major weapons depot in this surrounded area was captured by SAA+ in an Op which killed 37 terrorists. This comes when supplies to terrorists holed up here are already scarce.
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syr ... n-darayya/

For a video update:

[youtube]vQ26Rlcc40U&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Feb 2016 12:15

into mordor itself soon...

@khalidi_4_sham 2h2 hours ago
The heart of the Syrian Revolution currently is NOT Aleppo, it's Idlib. The 5 districts of Idlib : Harem, Maarat Al Nouman, Jisr, Ariha,

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Feb 2016 12:41

Rus has proposed a ceasefire on march 1. by their estimation the ground forces might be able to retain whatever they have now and make a few small advances but no ability to retake idlib if they are proposing a ceasefire in 20 days.

I am sure the ceasefire does not involve the IS.

the plan might be to leave Idlib for now and refocus on rolling back the ISIS from west of the euphrates and their northern corridor before the gulf emirates get too much time to meddle in the matter and "wean away" the SDF.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 11 Feb 2016 12:47

saudi has proposed joint management of territory inside syria with turkish troops
almost fell off my chair laughing... without the turks there, the saudis would be pooping their pants stepping over the border

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Feb 2016 12:56

ceasefire will also foment disunity among the rebels with nothing to do they might splinter again over who controls what checkpoints and the goonda taxes collected.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Feb 2016 14:18

Russian Patriarch Kirill flies to Cuba for historic meeting with Pope Francis

https://www.rt.com/news/332108-patriarc ... a-meeting/

The Pope has given up on West protecting the christian and the faith , The West ( Europe and US ) are Morally Bankrupt , Now just remains the Eastern Orthodoxy conservative and keeping the Faith.

Patriarch Krill in the Link is using State IL-96VIP aircraft which generally flies for Prime Minister and top official , Looks like the Initiative is officially backed by Russian State and not limited to Roman Catholic and East Orthodox churches.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Feb 2016 14:20

US A-10s bombed city of Aleppo on Wednesday, shifted blame onto Moscow – Russian military

https://www.rt.com/news/332108-patriarc ... a-meeting/

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 11 Feb 2016 14:28

Austin wrote:US A-10s bombed city of Aleppo on Wednesday, shifted blame onto Moscow – Russian military

https://www.rt.com/news/332108-patriarc ... a-meeting/

The correct link for news on the A 10 bombings is here
https://www.rt.com/news/332109-russian- ... -warlords/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Feb 2016 14:33

^^ Thanks , I dont recollect in past 50 years both Russian and US forces operating so close to each other bombing the same enemy ,same country but not the same goal

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Feb 2016 14:38

Russian Air Forces Destroy 1,900 Terrorist Facilities in Syria Over a Week

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160 ... z3zqw4IbOs

“Over the last week from February 4-11, Russian aircraft in the Syrian Arab Republic have completed 510 sorties, during which airstrikes were carried out against 1,888 terrorist facilities in the provinces of Aleppo, Latakia, Hama, Deir ez-Zor, Deraa, Homs, Hasakah, and Raqqa,” Konashenkov told journalists

"As a result of airstrikes by Russian Aerospace Forces airplanes, terrorists suffered a heavy loss. Two influential field commanders were killed in the province of Aleppo," Konashenkov told journalists.

Su-25 attack jets discovered three motorcades with equipment and arms for militants along the Karyatein-Homs road. An airstrike was carried out against the terrorists’ grouping of equipment. After final reconnaissance was finished, nine large trucks with weapons caches, two armored vehicles, and over 40 militants were destroyed.”

Konashenkov also noted that the terrorists in Aleppo are deserting "massively."

"The terrorists are marching people towards the Turkish border, so that later they may hide among the locals. The terrorists put down their weapons and try to dissolve in the crowd — they know that Russian warplanes and the Syrian Army would never strike civilians," Konashenkov said.

The Russian Defense Ministry also stated that many Syrian opposition groups have started to share intelligence with Russia and the Syrian Army:

"The cooperation with the Syrian opposition groups has been very fruitful so far. Lots of them are shifting towards the Syrian government."

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 11 Feb 2016 14:40

The Southern Front analysis video of Turkey's war build up has some excellent graphics and videos. For the analysis itself please refer BRF Levant thread

[youtube]9VI5qpK_Sc0&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Feb 2016 14:47

The Russians are operating around 40-45 fighter aircraft of all types excluding chopper and other aircraft , They seem to be operating a small fighter number but are maintaining a high sortie rate , The aircraft itself are getting rotated but numbers remain the same.

So its possible to get high uptimes and high sortie rates for a small group of well maintained fighters , compare that to cooilation they operate in 100 of fighter but their sortie rate is much lower

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 11 Feb 2016 14:53

ANNA news has a nice short video on YPG assault on Mannagh air base before they captured it. You can clearly see women tank crew in the initial few seconds

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 11 Feb 2016 14:58

Another video of an FSA TOW shooting 50,000 USD munition (?) on a 50 USD tent. Watch till the end. Lone SAA looks like won't survive but in the end you can see him get up quickly.

[youtube]UF8D_--WkNM&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

habal · Post by **habal** » 11 Feb 2016 15:09

look at that terrain, it is lattakia. And the tow operator is either american or british or turkish. The tow has 3 black stripes on its legs which means it is nato stock.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Feb 2016 16:20

deejay wrote:Another video of an FSA TOW shooting 50,000 USD munition (?) on a 50 USD tent. Watch till the end. Lone SAA looks like won't survive but in the end you can see him get up quickly.

[youtube]UF8D_--WkNM&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

He was lucky to have survived

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 11 Feb 2016 16:44

deejay wrote:ANNA news has a nice short video on YPG assault on Mannagh air base before they captured it. You can clearly see women tank crew in the initial few seconds

like the guy who is firing the gun as if he is playing tabla. and then Laila firing from tank...........jahanum for janwars.

habal · Post by **habal** » 11 Feb 2016 19:35

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=846_1455197512
Very interesting!

The Russians have drawn a red line. Deliver anti-aircraft weapons to the Syrian rebels and we use xxx weapons. It is a red line for a long time now.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Feb 2016 19:54

some large munitions are being dropped on the drive to kinsibba

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Feb 2016 19:55

iran has released footage of their Air defence center talking to usn planes asking them to leave the fars island and that iran would take care of the lost boats

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=25b_1455156793

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Feb 2016 20:02

victory or death: onsite report from deir azzor the syrian leningrad (its more akin to leningrad which was cut off from all sides on land, vs stalingrad where the red army never lost control of small section of the shore on the west bank used to land reinforcements and evac the wounded...leningrad was cut off for 3 years before red army broke the siege...a fitful supply reached via a railway line laid on frozen lake ladoga in winter, like the air supplies to deir azzor)

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=953_1455133671

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Feb 2016 20:09

monument in leningrad. if deir azzor survives there will be something similar there as well.

habal · Post by **habal** » 11 Feb 2016 20:17

the russian bombing is pretty accurate ... guided by ground forces laser pointers ??

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 11 Feb 2016 20:47

Meanwhile from Iran

Darius Caspian ‏@DariusCaspian now56 minutes ago
#Iran presented 4th generation of its Shahed-129 UCAV today (equipped with SATCOM, SAR radar and improved engine).

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Feb 2016 21:05

a new low was reached today. a 4 year old "khalifa cub" was asked to execute 3 people in a explosive laden car using a remote

https://twitter.com/RanaHarbi/status/697688253483323393

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 11 Feb 2016 21:44

yes, the same british boy who was featured in a previous video extolling the virtues of jehad
his father is believed to be the indian convert who has taken over from jihadi john

(p.s. i saw you referenced the beatles earlier - their nick name was given by their hostages who knew there were 4 british jehadis holding them and used to refer to them as the beatles as a consequence)

Shanu · Post by **Shanu** » 11 Feb 2016 23:10

Aleppo is the primary target.. Gong by the 20 day to ceasefire proposal by the Russian side in Geneva.

Already 50000 people are on the move from Aleppo's rebel controlled areas, probably trying to escape before the coming SAA siege. If Aleppo falls, the SAA can consolidate its position in Northern Syria and prepare for a two way push - up north against the ISIS bulge on the Turkish border and down west towards Idlib. Conquer, Consolidate and move forward.

But the maps also show how difficult the battle will be from now. There are no apparent chokepoints in Jisr/Idlib region and progress will be slow and bloody. Turkey will definitely throw everything at the advancing SAA. No easy victory can be expected.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Feb 2016 02:57

Why don't they just starve & bomb Aleppo (like Homs), pull the main assault troops and do a general pest-e-sha'eed around Deir ez Zor I wonder. Some 2000 ISIS to eliminate there.
Wait for most of the civilians to leave Aleppo - then do a round-the-clock bombing campaign and take over the ruins.

Otherwise, taking Aleppo will be extremely costly, and the pests will simply do a lot of car bombs inside the town anyway.
Someone here referred to Post-ISIS Middle East. I don't think that is going to happen without a massive, truly massive wipeout, on a generational level. ISIS is also a state of mind(lessness). Same as the Mahdi concept of the 19th century, like
With Gordon In Khartoum, the book I read many saal pehle.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Feb 2016 03:03

I think Gen. Vodkovich needs to lay off the bottle and see how to truly liberate Deir ez Zor.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 12 Feb 2016 03:51

UlanBatori wrote:Why don't they just starve & bomb Aleppo (like Homs), pull the main assault troops and do a general pest-e-sha'eed around Deir ez Zor I wonder. Some 2000 ISIS to eliminate there.
Wait for most of the civilians to leave Aleppo - then do a round-the-clock bombing campaign and take over the ruins.

Otherwise, taking Aleppo will be extremely costly, and the pests will simply do a lot of car bombs inside the town anyway.
Someone here referred to Post-ISIS Middle East. I don't think that is going to happen without a massive, truly massive wipeout, on a generational level. ISIS is also a state of mind(lessness). Same as the Mahdi concept of the 19th century, like
With Gordon In Khartoum, the book I read many saal pehle.

oooh, the mongol is channeling USAF General Curtis Lemay........how nice. it appears the Russians bring out the Marine in the Mongol. do the neighbors know?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Feb 2016 05:50

I didn't say FIRE-bomb, , or CARPET-bomb.. just bomb. Precision munitions that swerve around little children and pretty women and neatly "neutralize" evil ~~ISIS terrorists~~ ( I mean NATO-funded, NATO-armed Moderate Freedom Fighters) without spilling any blood.
But.. THANKS!

I had never seen those Dresden images.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 12 Feb 2016 06:46

UlanBatori wrote:Why don't they just starve & bomb Aleppo (like Homs), pull the main assault troops and do a general pest-e-sha'eed around Deir ez Zor I wonder. Some 2000 ISIS to eliminate there.
Wait for most of the civilians to leave Aleppo - then do a round-the-clock bombing campaign and take over the ruins.

Otherwise, taking Aleppo will be extremely costly, and the pests will simply do a lot of car bombs inside the town anyway.
Someone here referred to Post-ISIS Middle East. I don't think that is going to happen without a massive, truly massive wipeout, on a generational level. ISIS is also a state of mind(lessness). Same as the Mahdi concept of the 19th century, like
With Gordon In Khartoum, the book I read many saal pehle.

Most Aleppo civilians are in pro government areas. A few in rebel areas and apparently, the rebels are not popular among them.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 12 Feb 2016 06:51

Agreements reached at Syria Support Group talks in Munich - Russian diplomat

Syria conflict: World powers agree cessation of hostilities

..
World powers have agreed to seek a nationwide "cessation of hostilities" in Syria to begin in a week's time, after talks in Germany.
.....
The halt will not apply to the battle against jihadist groups Islamic State (IS) and al-Nusra Front.
....
"What we have here are words on paper, what we need to see in the next few days are actions on the ground," he said
.....
British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said the cessation would only work if Russia halted its raids, although Mr Lavrov said they would continue.
..

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Feb 2016 06:51

^ as above most of the populated parts of aleppo are already with the govt. the rebels hold the western countryside and a part of the city adjacent to it.

ceasefire deal has been agreed on.

usa today:

Diplomats meeting in Munich agreed early Friday to implement a "cessation of hostilities" in Syria's long-running civil war and bring aid into the country to stem a humanitarian crisis that has displaced millions.

Secretary of State John Kerry announced the agreement after meeting with his Russian counterpart and other diplomats in an effort to reach a cease-fire in the nearly five-year-long war. The goal is to have a cease-fire in a week’s time, Kerry said.

The announcement amounted to a significant development in a civil war that has killed more than 250,000 people, caused mass destruction and created Europe's worst refugee crisis since World War II.

A cease-fire is far from certain. It would depend on the cooperation of hundreds of rebel groups that are battling the regime of President Bashar Assad, as well as Assad.

“The real test is whether or not all the parties honor those commitments and implement them,” Kerry said.

The cease-fire would not include the Islamic State and al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. Both are terrorist groups that a U.S.-led coalition is battling in Syria and Iraq.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Feb 2016 06:54

isnt the Al-Nusra front the biggest player in Idlib province ? they have eaten up part of the old FSA via defections.

I guess that means war in Idlib can continue, but it might cease in the south, homs, hama enclaves

and it will certainly continue in east aleppo against ISIS.

the non Nusra fronts who we can loosely call the FSA might be encouraged to changed sides or move through YPG afrin to sit in that little pocket of north aleppo for now and secure it against IS.

Al Nusra front wiki
Headquarters
Deir ez-Zor, Deir ez-Zor Governorate, (2012–14)[7][8]
Harem, Idlib Governorate, (February–November 2014)[9]
Salqin, Idlib Governorate, (November 2014–March 2015)[10]
Idlib, Idlib Governorate, Syria (March 2015–present)[11]

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Feb 2016 06:57

this finally means enough resources be freed in a month to resume 3 parallel drives all converging on the raqqa deir azzor belt IS.
this is about the only goal that US and Russia could agree on. starting points aleppo, hama and palmyra.

but the US will have to pull its weight and extend its vast airpower, airlift and intel resources to the campaign. a coupla A-10s running around dropping leaflets is a joke coming from the usaf. it could also provide food and fuel via airdrop to deir azzor ....

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Feb 2016 06:59

habal · Post by **habal** » 12 Feb 2016 07:00

USA bombs 2 hospitals in Aleppo

Syria - Russia blames U.S. air force for bombing Syrian hospitals in Aleppo

MOSCOW, Feb. 11 Russian Defense Ministry denied Thursday its involvement in Wednesday's bombings in Aleppo, Syria's second largest city, that caused the destruction of two hospitals, blaming U.S. air force for the attack instead.

"Yesterday at 13:55 Moscow time (10:55 GMT), two U.S. Air Force A-10 attack jets entered the Syrian air space from the territory of Turkey, took a direct course to Aleppo and launched strikes against facilities in the city," Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said in a statement.

Earlier on Wednesday, U.S military official Steve Warren said in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad that Russian aircraft bombed two hospitals in Aleppo during the day, depriving some 50,000 Syrians of medical care.

Konashenkov noted that Warren, as the spokesman of the U.S.-led anti-IS coalition, failed to provide either the time and coordinates of the alleged attack, or the source of his data.

No Russian aircraft operated near Aleppo on Wednesday and the nearest target hit by the Russian air force in Syria was located some 20 km away from the city, said Konashenkov, adding that only war planes and strike drones of the U.S.-led coalition were seen above Aleppo.

He also denied accusations that Russian aircraft were launching strikes against civilians in Syria.

"Air strikes are carried out against assigned targets only after multiple checks of the received data and elimination of risks for civilian lives," he said.

According to Konashenkov, Russian Armed Forces in cooperation with their partners had deployed a multi-level intelligence system providing credible target detection in order to avoid civilian casualties.

He said that it is terrorists that are threatening civilians and making people go to the Turkish borderline.

"Having left their weapons behind, terrorists are making efforts to mix in the public because they know the Russian air forces and Syrian government forces do not carry out strikes against civilians," he said.

Konashenkov reiterated that the Russian forces deployed in Syria were to destroy terrorism, while all political issues should be resolved only by Syrians themselves with international mediation at the negotiation table.