Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 29 Apr 2014 23:50

Mort Walker wrote:
muraliravi wrote: That is the issue. We should all use surveys to read the direction of the wind and not gauge the intensity of the wind. So this election NDA is ahead and by a decent distance, that is all we can say. The can win a landslide or make a govt with a lot of partners. We just wont know until may 16.
Fair enough. Now that you've provided a lower limit of BJP 188, what is their upper limit and what do you think the upper limit would be for the NDA? Is there any remote possibility of NDA 363+? Or perhaps you'll want to answer that after tomorrow when we've reached 438/543 districts voting completed?

Oh well, look at it this way, what is the max NDA allies can get if all stars align perfectly

SAD: 7
Shiv Sena: 16
TDP: 18
Apna Dal: 1
LJP and RLSP: 6
Naga Party: 1
Swabhimani: 1
RPI: 1
All Tamil Nadu NDA partners: 8
HJC: 1

Thats 60 seats. To get 363, BJP should get 303 on its own.

The max they can get in western India (MP, CG, GJ, MH, RJ) is 27+10+25+20+22 is 104

The max in South India (KA, TN, Kerala, AP) is 14+2+1+2 is 19

The max in Eastern India (Orissa, WB, Jharkhand) is 7+1+12 is 20

The max in NE and UT's (Assam, Arunachal, other NE states, Andaman, Daman/Diu, Dadar) is 6+2+0+1+1+1 is 11

The max in North India (JK, HP, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand) is 2+3+2+5+7+5 is 24

So this is 178 so far. BJP needs 125 seats more to hit 303.

All that is left is the 78 seats BJP is contesting in UP and 30 seats in Bihar to a total of 108 seats. so chance of them getting 303 is nil.

PS: based on Arjun ji's post, i am assuming BJP will pull of shimla and lose only mandi in HP

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 29 Apr 2014 23:54

what is the best possible number, in your opinion ?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 29 Apr 2014 23:57

^ I thought BJP is contesting in 4+8=12 seats in 42 AP seats.

So the max BJP can win in AP should be 6-7 seats; in a wave that gives TDP 18/30 seats.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 30 Apr 2014 00:09

MRji,

Let's assume BJP gets 75% of the 108 in UP+Bihar = 81

So, 81 (UP+Bihar) + 178 (rest of India) + 60 (NDA allies) = 319 Max possible for NDA. Do you think this is fair for the upper limit?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Apr 2014 00:19

Mort Walker wrote:MRji,

Let's assume BJP gets 90% of the 108 in UP+Bihar = 97

So, 97(UP+Bihar) + 178 (rest of India) + 60 (NDA allies) = 335 Max possible for NDA. Do you think this is fair for the upper limit?

Thats 272+ for BJP

dinki chikaa dinki chikaaaa

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 30 Apr 2014 00:22

RamaY wrote:^ I thought BJP is contesting in 4+8=12 seats in 42 AP seats.

So the max BJP can win in AP should be 6-7 seats; in a wave that gives TDP 18/30 seats.

Yes sir, in my post i gave BJP 2 seats in AP.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 30 Apr 2014 00:22

I would do the following:

Best case for BJP = 259
Worst case for BJP = 188
Difference = 71

So split the difference and we have 35 + 188 = 223 for BJP.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 30 Apr 2014 00:23

Rahul M wrote:what is the best possible number, in your opinion ?

178 + 53 in UP and 20 in Bihar makes it 251 for BJP as best possible case.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 30 Apr 2014 00:24

Mort Walker wrote:MRji,

Let's assume BJP gets 90% of the 108 in UP+Bihar = 97

So, 97(UP+Bihar) + 178 (rest of India) + 60 (NDA allies) = 335 Max possible for NDA. Do you think this is fair for the upper limit?

Sir 90% in UP and Bihar is a strike rate that they can never achieve. Very tuf, 60-65% is a reasonable expectation for the upper limit.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 30 Apr 2014 00:27

muraliravi wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:MRji,

Let's assume BJP gets 90% of the 108 in UP+Bihar = 97

So, 97(UP+Bihar) + 178 (rest of India) + 60 (NDA allies) = 335 Max possible for NDA. Do you think this is fair for the upper limit?
Sir 90% in UP and Bihar is a strike rate that they can never achieve. Very tuf, 60-65% is a reasonable expectation for the upper limit.

Yes. You are correct. I would predict a strike rate of 70-75% at the upper limit due to the NAMO wave in UP + Bihar. Which should give 75-81.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 30 Apr 2014 01:50

On 19 Nov 2013, my prediction was on the following lines

RajeshA wrote:My expectation/hope of BJP Numbers in LS 2014

J&K - 3

Punjab - 3

HP - 3

Uttarkhand - 5

Haryana - 4

Delhi - 7

Rajasthan - 20

Gujarat - 25

Maharashtra - 15

Goa - 2

Madhya Pradesh - 23

Chhattisgarh - 10

Uttar Pradesh - 50

Bihar - 25

Jharkhand - 8

Andhra Pradesh - 7

Karnataka - 15

Kerala - 1

Tamil Nadu - 1

Odisha - 3

West Bengal - 2

Assam - 6

Manipur - 2

Arunachal Pradesh - 1

Andaman & Nicobar Islands - 1

Dadra & Nagar Haveli - 1

Daman & Diu - 1

Chandigarh - 1
Total: 245

Pre-poll NDA should be easily above 272!

Some changes:

J&K - 2
Punjab - 2
HP - 3
Uttarkhand - 5
Haryana - 4
Delhi - 7
Rajasthan - 22
Gujarat - 25
Maharashtra - 17
Goa - 2
Madhya Pradesh - 26
Chhattisgarh - 9
Uttar Pradesh - 53
Bihar - 23
Jharkhand - 10
Andhra Pradesh - 4
Karnataka - 13
Kerala - 1
Tamil Nadu - 3
Odisha - 6
West Bengal - 3
Assam - 6
Manipur - 1
Arunachal Pradesh - 1
Andaman & Nicobar Islands - 1
Dadra & Nagar Haveli - 1
Daman & Diu - 1
Chandigarh - 1

BJP: 252 seats

There is some scope to get more in Karnataka, Maharashtra, and may be single seats in other states, so the number could max out around 262.

However there should be enough from other NDA partners as well.

muraliravi wrote:Oh well, look at it this way, what is the max NDA allies can get if all stars align perfectly

SAD: 7
Shiv Sena: 16
TDP: 18
Apna Dal: 1
LJP and RLSP: 6
Naga Party: 1
Swabhimani: 1
RPI: 1
All Tamil Nadu NDA partners: 8
HJC: 1

Thats 60 seats. To get 363, BJP should get 303 on its own.

The max they can get in western India (MP, CG, GJ, MH, RJ) is 27+10+25+20+22 is 104

The max in South India (KA, TN, Kerala, AP) is 14+2+1+2 is 19

The max in Eastern India (Orissa, WB, Jharkhand) is 7+1+12 is 20

The max in NE and UT's (Assam, Arunachal, other NE states, Andaman, Daman/Diu, Dadar) is 6+2+0+1+1+1 is 11

The max in North India (JK, HP, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand) is 2+3+2+5+7+5 is 24

So this is 178 so far. BJP needs 125 seats more to hit 303.

All that is left is the 78 seats BJP is contesting in UP and 30 seats in Bihar to a total of 108 seats. so chance of them getting 303 is nil.

PS: based on Arjun ji's post, i am assuming BJP will pull of shimla and lose only mandi in HP

For Constitutional Amendments, NaMo would of course have to take others on board - INLD, AIADMK, DMK, BJD, JD(S), BSP, TRS, NCP.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 30 Apr 2014 01:53

Does moving from a first past the post system to a instant run off or a 2 round voting system at a constituency level require a simple majority or a constitutional amendment?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 30 Apr 2014 01:54

the later.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 30 Apr 2014 01:59

Changes to the constitution require a simple majority of the total seats of each house and 2/3rds majority of those present and voting. Amendments under Art 368 require the additional backing of at least half the states.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 30 Apr 2014 02:29

Mort Walker wrote:MRji,

Let's assume BJP gets 75% of the 108 in UP+Bihar = 81

So, 81 (UP+Bihar) + 178 (rest of India) + 60 (NDA allies) = 319 Max possible for NDA. Do you think this is fair for the upper limit?

This scenario is the most likely. But "wave" effects can push the numbers higher.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 30 Apr 2014 03:06

pankajs wrote:Many Trinamool leaders are accused in riots cases: BJP

http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/ma ... 28392.html
"Many TMC leaders and candidates are accused in cases of rioting in West Bengal and no action has been taken against them. There are many such leaders who are contesting on TMC tickets. Who is the butcher of Sandeshkhali? Who is the "shaitan" (devil) of Panchala, Howrah? Who is the devil of Asansol and Midnapur?," BJP spokesperson Meenakshi Lekhi said.

She said "the party has not been able to investigate the scams and such like things in the state. Who is responsible for the anarchy in West Bengal? Would TMC reply to such questions as to who is the real butcher?"

Lekhi alleged there is a situation of riots continuing in West Bengal and many riots have taken place in the state after 2002, whereas there have been none in Gujarat ever since.

She said such language is used by those people who do not have a reply to the real issues of corruption, high prices, unemployment, lack of development that are confronting the people.

"That is why they are doing misguided politics," she said, adding that when it comes to issues of malnutrition, farmers, industry, they stand nowhere," Lekhi said.

Finally BJP is getting the strategy-line right in West Bengal. This should have been the strategy from the beginning, and I hope it is kept up till the end. Better late than never. The more BJP-TMC spat goes on the more mileage BJP will get, and this is the first time WB is witnessing a high-profile accusations against the pseudo-seculars. Please convey this to NaMo camp and WB BJP state unit.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 30 Apr 2014 03:16

^^^
9 seats go to polls tomorrow in WB, then another 6 on May 7, and 17 on May 12.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 30 Apr 2014 03:38

Does constitution specify the method of determining the winner in elections? Why does it need an amendment? I thought the constitution only specifies that elections must be held every 5 years

http://lawmin.nic.in/olwing/coi/coi-eng ... ss(21).pdf

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Apr 2014 03:50

Looks like JJ was fostering a nest of Paki snakes in TN. A gang was busted today with ring leader caught. Links to Pak High Comission in Sri Lanka.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 30 Apr 2014 03:55

Modi the man for all reasons

bhavani · Post by **bhavani** » 30 Apr 2014 04:20

muraliravi wrote:
muraliravi wrote: That is the issue. We should all use surveys to read the direction of the wind and not gauge the intensity of the wind. So this election NDA is ahead and by a decent distance, that is all we can say. The can win a landslide or make a govt with a lot of partners. We just wont know until may 16.

Fair enough. Now that you've provided a lower limit of BJP 188, what is their upper limit and what do you think the upper limit would be for the NDA? Is there any remote possibility of NDA 363+? Or perhaps you'll want to answer that after tomorrow when we've reached 438/543 districts voting completed?
Oh well, look at it this way, what is the max NDA allies can get if all stars align perfectly

SAD: 7
Shiv Sena: 16
TDP: 18
Apna Dal: 1
LJP and RLSP: 6
Naga Party: 1
Swabhimani: 1
RPI: 1
All Tamil Nadu NDA partners: 8
HJC: 1

Thats 60 seats. To get 363, BJP should get 303 on its own.

The max they can get in western India (MP, CG, GJ, MH, RJ) is 27+10+25+20+22 is 104

The max in South India (KA, TN, Kerala, AP) is 14+2+1+2 is 19

The max in Eastern India (Orissa, WB, Jharkhand) is 7+1+12 is 20

The max in NE and UT's (Assam, Arunachal, other NE states, Andaman, Daman/Diu, Dadar) is 6+2+0+1+1+1 is 11

The max in North India (JK, HP, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand) is 2+3+2+5+7+5 is 24

So this is 178 so far. BJP needs 125 seats more to hit 303.

All that is left is the 78 seats BJP is contesting in UP and 30 seats in Bihar to a total of 108 seats. so chance of them getting 303 is nil.

PS: based on Arjun ji's post, i am assuming BJP will pull of shimla and lose only mandi in HP

So BJP will reach 243 seats by itself and so it needs two major partners like TDP and Shiv sena to reach 272+.

I would prefer this scenario where modi would need support from a myraid number of parties. probably increase BJP's leverage in negotiating important Cabinet berths.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Apr 2014 05:25

RamaY wrote:^ I thought BJP is contesting in 4+8=12 seats in 42 AP seats.

So the max BJP can win in AP should be 6-7 seats; in a wave that gives TDP 18/30 seats.

Impossible for BJP to get 6-7 seats.

Here is min list:
Sec'bad
Mahboobnagar
Narsapuram

Max List (if there is huge NaMo wave in AP):
Sec'bad
Mahaboobnagar
Narsapuram
Vizag
Nizamabad

We really need to see seat by seat of 542.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 30 Apr 2014 05:27

less Modi, things look like BJP needs some serious thinking about their leadership qualities.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Apr 2014 05:30

Muppalla wrote: Modi will lose onlee

Muppala garu, where is my 272+ list Saar? Don't say will give on 5/17.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Apr 2014 05:31

No Rajmpeta?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 30 Apr 2014 05:44

RamaY wrote:No Rajmpeta?

Purandhreswari? Never. Even if NM camp there for a week.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 30 Apr 2014 05:50

RamaY wrote:No Rajmpeta?

Nope. YSRP is very strong. Puran has to move entire Himalayas to win that seat. There is a good movement in AP for TDP to win but YSRC is not a lost case.

Regarding 230+ or 272 for Modi it is all about UP+Bihar. In UP will Modi get 50 to get to 220, 60 to 230, 70 to 240. This 70 out of 120 is what a lot of hopefully are counting on. Every phase has UP and Bihar and hence this dhothi shiver is until the end.

BJP getting majority = doing extremely good in UP+Bihar
Congress getting majority = doing extremely good in AP+Maha

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Apr 2014 05:52

Narayana Rao wrote:
RamaY wrote:No Rajmpeta?
Purandhreswari? Never. Even if NM camp there for a week.

I was hoping for a longer (10+yr) game.
BTW, were you typing from mobile phone? Did you want to say, she will win?

We should meet again this October/November Saar...

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 30 Apr 2014 06:07

In home stretch, but BJP won't go easy

NEW DELHI: BJP hopes to beat campaign fatigue and last-mile complacency in the final two phases of the Lok Sabha polls through enhanced oversight aimed at sustaining a perceived upswing in east UP and northeast Bihar.

BJP managers feel the last two phases in the swing states of UP and Bihar after Wednesday's polling present favourable conditions for the party and the key challenge will be to ensure there is no loss of momentum.

The 34 seats in east UP and 13 in Bihar are "catchment" areas for BJP looking to mobilize backward and upper caste votes to counter a minority polarization in favour of rivals like SP, BSP and Congress-RJD .

The challenge is not so severe in Seemandhra, the other clutch of seats where polling is due on May 7, as campaigning began late and was further delayed by prolonged seat sharing discussions between BJP and TDP.

BJP's own stakes are limited in Seemandhra in terms of seats contested though it is looking to form a winning combination with TDP that can outgun the challenge posed by YSR Congress leader Jaganmohan Reddy.

BJP sources said that the party feels the tough territory in the UP campaign like parts of western UP and the Rohilkhand belt where a high degree of polarization could cut both ways has been negotiated.

The densely populated east UP seats stretching from Bahraich and Shravasti in the north to Bhadohi and Allahabad in the south are potentially more favourable, not the least because Narendra Modi is contesting from Varanasi.

BJP is depending on its key managers like Modi's close aide Amit Shah and party general secretary Dharmendra Pradhan to keep the campaign machinery in top gear in the home stretch.

Shah's control room in Lucknow is constantly monitoring the progress of the campaign, not just by way of rallies addressed by senior leaders, but also through video reporting and feedback of party workers and mission 272 volunteers. Evaluations are prepared every evening and shared with Modi's control room in Gandhinagar with the Gujarat chief minister scanning the reports late into the night or early the next morning.

In Bihar, Pradhan is working with state leaders like former deputy chief minister Sushil Modi who has a reputation for being a careful and thorough campaign manager. BJP leaders feel the previous round of polling in Bihar in seats falling in the border or seemanchal region was the tough bit for reasons similar to the electoral terrain in parts of UP being a challenge due to minority mobilization.

Strong pockets of Yadav presence can give the RJDCongress combination a boost, particularly as the JD(U) remains woefully out of form. Sensing that he has a chance, RJD chief Lalu Prasad has stepped up his attacks on Modi.

Now, MP BJP Top Brass Hit Campaign Trail in Uttar Pradesh

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 30 Apr 2014 06:20

May 16 can't come any faster for me.

PAIDMEDIA, Libtads, national enemies, traitors, EC, ITALIANMAFIA all in bed acting in concert every day.

I hope people keep faith and vote out this scoundrels and NaMo can clean this shit that is stuck in the feet of bharat mata.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 30 Apr 2014 06:34

Resource allocation and utilization maximization... experienced booth workers and poll agents are a big resource...

State BJP sources said around 500 party workers from MP were sent to Jhansi to campaign for Bharti. “These workers are still camping in areas around Jhansi and have been asked to manage the booths. After the polls in Jhansi are over, the workers will move to Allahabad (polling on May 7) and later to Varanasi,” a party official said. Bharti, who currently represents harkhari in the UP Assembly, is facing an uphill task in Jhansi as she is pitted against Union Minister and sitting MP Pradeep Jain.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/ ... 196645.ece

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 30 Apr 2014 06:40

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/s ... 960279.ece
sAAPs and Congis do not have much to do with science in their plans

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 30 Apr 2014 08:53

How are the elections proceeding in areas that are voting today. Any ground reports

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 30 Apr 2014 09:19

Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3 · 21s

Punjab is in a mess? Very early days yet but AAP is doing exceedingly well, almost 22%...Dilli repeating in only this state??

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Apr 2014 09:19

Telangana says 20-25% poling till 10AM

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Apr 2014 09:25

Chiranjeevi is scolded by voters for jumping the Q

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 30 Apr 2014 09:30

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 1m
Bihar, BTW, is back to where it was... a one horse race again, looks like Seemanchal was an aberration in BJP's march from Patna to Dilli!

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 30 Apr 2014 09:34

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 2m
Telangana is seeing huge, I repeat huge, cross voting, Parliament is for Modi! Incredible early trends!!

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 30 Apr 2014 09:37

If the sAAPturds do well in Punjab expect the return of insurgency too, this time drug fueled. IMHO Punjab is the perfect receptacle of Kiev style colour revolutions. All the ingredients, a corrupt govt, ham fisted police, boisterous drug addicted pseudo modern population (also called tashan) are present. If hope the central govt is keeping its eyes and ears close to the ground.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 30 Apr 2014 09:40

Anantha wrote:Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 2m
Telangana is seeing huge, I repeat huge, cross voting, Parliament is for Modi! Incredible early trends!!

Aaaassum!
I only hope TRS stops just below 50 so it will form a coalition govt with Congress.