Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

[rsingh]

Pols are never happy. They have big chip on shoulder. They are fighting with EU, Russia and rest of the world. Russia just ignores them . They are not in the game.

[srikandan]

Russian tanks in a single file is likely a dated video from last year, when Russian tanks moved in a single file to where they are now.

[kvraghav]

^^^
Any reports that you can post from Russian military just for the sake of appearing neutral?
Regarding western intervention, Russia is fighting for its survival here. The west was slowly pushing them . They have been completely cut off from the rest of the world and this is a country which has nothing to loose but a huge cache of nuclear arms. I think west pushed it real hard when there was no real need. What if Russia decides to bring to its level and launch a few nukes?

[chanakyaa]

It would be helpful for posters to back claims with some sources (links, videos) and hold off the urge to post something before evidence is available. Otherwise this will turn into Teeter like trash collection. I would like to see dozen T-72s getting destroyed, but not in an imaginary world.

[srikandan]

I would post links of tanks moving to the border around mid-2021 if I could, but all those videos of tanks moving on roads last year have been scrubbed from youtube. All internet information on Tanks and Russia seem to start in 2022.

Added later: Found it. Not an american source mind you. We are seeing USA information warfare in play right now.

Eurasia times link:

Eurasia times link

reposting text here before this disappears.

US Raises Alarm As Russia Moves Heavy Artillery, Tanks Towards Ukraine Border
By
Younis Dar
April 2, 2021

Russia is reportedly moving tanks, artillery, and other heavy armored vehicles close to the border with Ukraine, raising fears of an imminent conflict in the region.

The local witnesses reported a strong buildup of the Russian forces, along with their logistics units, which Moscow said was part of a “training exercise”.

However, reports suggest the scale of the military movement is such that it has “disrupted shipments of tractors and other agricultural equipment ahead of the spring harvest season of the farmers”, The Drive reported. The development has left even the US worried that Ukraine and Russia may be headed for a new conflict.

Крым, 30 марта pic.twitter.com/yaMoN7leio

— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) March 30, 2021

The reports of heavy military equipment being moved to the border on trains and through roads were being reported since March 27 by the locals through video footage and images. According to the military intelligence reports put together by the Pentagon, “some 4,000 heavily armed Russian forces had been observed moving in Crimea,” CNN said, quoting a US defense official.

Russian military equipment on the Crimean Bridge. 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers, various trucks, BMP-3 IFVs.

29.03.21 pic.twitter.com/c4W2aNqp5M

— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) March 31, 2021

According to US media reports, top US national security officials were in touch with their Ukrainian counterparts, and the country’s top general called his Ukrainian counterpart on Wednesday amid reports of Russian military buildup near the border with eastern Ukraine. The US had condemned the Russian aggression last week which resulted in the death of four Ukrainian soldiers.

“Russia’s destabilizing actions undermine the de-escalation intentions that had been achieved through [last year’s agreement],” CNN quoted chief Pentagon spokesman John Kirby as saying, on Wednesday. “Additionally, we are aware of Ukrainian military reports concerning Russian troop movements on Ukraine’s borders.”

The US expressed its support to Ukraine amid the threat from Russia, pledging to offer unwavering support to the country’s sovereignty. “Pleased to speak with Dmytro Kuleba today to discuss the United States unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

We continue to support Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a tweet.

Pleased to speak with @DmytroKuleba today to discuss the United States unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We continue to support Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea.

— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) April 1, 2021

There are also reports of increased Russian aggression on the border with Ukraine with multiple deaths reported last week.

A convoy of the Russian military trucks, Voronezh Oblast, March 31. pic.twitter.com/g93ovAB5HR

— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) March 31, 2021

According to the last reports, the US government said it was trying to figure out with Moscow whether it was renewing its offensive in eastern Ukraine with 4,000 troops on the move or simply exercising. “We’ve reached out to Russia to try to gain a little more clarity on what’s going on,” John Kirby told the US media

Although Russia has increased military activity near the Ukrainian border in the past, the situation today is particularly concerning since the ceasefire is about the expire.

[ldev]

Strange , I met my future wife at an Sanatorium near Kharkov. That peaceful serenity in -30°. Feel bad. But one has to know that western Ukrainian were always against Russia and they were willful collaborators of Nazis. Atrocities they comitted on fellow Ukrainians most grusome during WW2.

Many of them emigrated to the West and became part of the political establishment there. Case in point being Chrystia Freeland, the deputy PM of Canada whose grandfather collaborated with the Nazis during WW2. She is currently banned from entering Russia. Some of these people today in positions of authority are driving the Western response to Russia and using Ukraine as a catspaw.

Western Ukrainians were always anti Russian and Eastern Ukrainians were pro Russia so logically it would make sense for Russia to occupy everything east of the Dnieper River as the local population in that part would be supportive of Russia and would not launch an insurgency. The exception would be the ports of Odessa and Mariupol which would cut off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea. Occupying Kiev would be important from a symbolic viewpoint for Russia. In any event it is located on the Dnieper River. Historically it was Kiev that was the capital of Russia, long before Moscow even came in existence.

[Rudradev]

Two points:

1) What is the one interest that Russia, China, EU, and the US have in common?
Ans: They would ALL rather see India run by a remote-controllable MMS type than someone like Modi.

Nothing personal about it, guys. Threats are always gauged by their capability, not their (present) intent. India has huge advantages of resources, population, and geostrategic location, not to mention a gigantic marketplace and one of the world's largest economies. In the hands of a Maino-Vadra proxy, India is the fattest cow to ever line up for slaughter. In the hands of a Modi, India is a rapidly emerging competitor to any one of these power centers.

There is not a single leader in the world who would not prefer a weak-willed and compliant leadership in charge of India. Period. Anyone who thinks that Trump, Biden, Putin or anyone else would genuinely sing "yeh dosti hum nahi chhodenge" arm-in-arm with Modi is being retarded. All of them would prefer someone like Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Bannerji, or Rahul Gandhi in charge, so that India is stuck as a passive piece on the gameboard rather than a player in its own right.

2) Therefore: whatever happens as a result of the current Russia-Ukraine/West conflict, the effects on India will be beneficial to all those directly involved in it. What are these effects? Well, India's economy is just barely stumbling back to its feet after the severe trauma of COVID. The last thing it needs now is the global economic shock that will inevitably result from a war like this one: sanctions, inflation, supply shortages, and skyrocketing energy prices.

We are lucky that thus far, Modi has been relatively unscathed even by the hardships that people suffered under COVID-- in most cases, populations are much more likely to blame the leader even for problems that aren't actually his or her fault. But to win in 2024, Modi was counting on a strong economic turnaround after the post-pandemic recovery. Now, it seems likely that's not going to happen... and in fact, economic issues are likely to become even worse, leading to a much more difficult path to re-election.

Forget what China will do with US appearing weak or Russia becoming more dependent on Beijing economically. China's ability to pose a threat to India, and India's ability to counter that, depend 100% on the leadership we have in New Delhi... much more than they depend on Putin or Biden.

So it doesn't matter who the "good guys" or "bad guys" might be in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Not to me at least. I am concerned only with India's welfare and interests, period. And India's interests are that the conflict should be resolved quickly and with minimal economic repercussions, such as sanctions and rising energy prices, from which we would take collateral damage.

[AkshaySG]

Western view, Eastern view, Russian view etc etc should matter little to us right now...

What matters is what affect this has on India and from that perspective its hard to see any positives no matter what turn the conflict takes if it keeps on dragging

It will be harder for us to play "both sides" in such a conflict.
Harder for us to buy arms from a sanctioned Russia and basically impossible to get any engine tech etc from Ukraine

CAATSAA or some other variant will come back in full force and we would either be forced to sign some mega deal with the Amreekis or take the blow.

This helps China massively since it pushes Russia further into their orbit both financially and geopolitically...

And as is true these days what helps China also helps Pakistan. The beggers would be ready to sing praises about Papa Putin for a barrell of oil and some old AKs.

Global economy will take a hit just as we're escaping the Covid slump and finally hitting our stride.

BIF forces will get a ready made talking point and spend the next few months equating Modi to Putin as they did with Trump hoping that the gullible westerners will gobble it up and find their next target.


Its gonna take a lot of very very smart geopolitical maneuvering to take us out of this situation in a better place. Let's hope the PM, and EAM and everyone else involved is up to the task

[vijayk]

@DesiEscobar07

Putin and Modi to have a phone conversation today on the request by russian side.

[John]

Russian forces in southern Kherson region and fighting in Chernobyl area.

[GShankar]

A perspective on what is going on

1. Nordstream 2 would help russia economically
   1.1 China does not want that
   1.2 US does not want that
   1.3 Ukraine does not want that
   1.4 Sanction/Ban the company building the pipeline
2. Start some NATO BS with Ukraine
3. Cut alternate deals with Germany
4. Provoke Russia
   4.1 Putin gives speech. But why? There seems to be a need to address the internal audience.
5. Russia Engages
   5.1 US Condemns
   5.2 China Condems
   5.3 Germany Stutters
6. Nordstream 2 suspended

I think pretty much primary mission achieved. The powers that be don't care about 2 new countries being formed. And roos manages to achieve some sort of buffer (territory expansion?). Interesting that "this" buffer is valued more (at this moment) than nordstream 2. Not sure why? This "buffer creation" could have happened after nordstream 2 started flowing

Negotiate price down further bring nordstream 2 back on track?

I think G2 is alive and well.

Adding to this:

Russia can hold some "additional" territory to negotiate a deal.


Now what are the territories they might be interested in?

1. Securing pipeline route(s) all across ukraine - more difficult
2. Any so called commercial hubs or ports to choke trade (worst case probably everything "this" side of Dnieper is game)

Now what could be the terms that they are looking for? These are the obvious ones for one looking from the outside in

1. No Nato membership for ukraine
2. Another long term transit fee deal
3. Recognition of new countries to release the "additional" territories

I don't see any moves for India at the moment other than watch the unfolding scenario and being "part" of various discussions. Also need to see what moves / proposals china is making and what we can we could counter.

This move by Russia seems like a move they did "without chinese blessing". Not 100% sure about this but looking for more details.

[srikandan]

India has already started down an alternate path of increasing ties and signing a FTA with UAE and gulf states recently. This helps with oil shocks hurting Indian economy, due to this conflict, at least. Besides Russia is a top oil supplier for India, so I think the energy problem is less intangible than the rest.

[John]

This move by Russia seems like a move they did "without chinese blessing". Not 100% sure about this but looking for more details.

US reportedly shared Intel with China on Russian invasion pre Feb 20, this angered the Chinese and Xi reportedly discussed with Putin and he agreed to put off any invasion till post Olympics. It’s no coincidence Putin video of declaration of war was shot on Feb 21st. But released only on 24th.

[yensoy]

Its gonna take a lot of very very smart geopolitical maneuvering to take us out of this situation in a better place. Let's hope the PM, and EAM and everyone else involved is up to the task

I think this is overly pessimistic. Russia may soon be a pariah state for the west, somewhere between China and NoKo; but there will be no UN sanctions because of Russia's veto. We will continue to trade with them with Rupee-Ruble arrangement to circumvent SWIFT, and continue to procure some level of arms from them. It may be easy now to cancel the Kamov deal and any others we don't like.

CAATSA will be ignored for any defensive purchases to counter China. We will continue to have good relations with whatever is left of Ukraine and whatever regime follows.

Where we will hurt is if and when oil prices peak. It is not clear whether they will continue to remain high - if the world economy slows, oil demand will also reduce. By now we have long term oil purchase agreements in place (presumably) and that should cushion the blow somewhat but we will go through a roller coaster ride for sure.

[srikandan]

GShankar: Not sure why? This "buffer creation" could have happened after nordstream 2 started flowing

The rush to push Ukraine into NATO and cause this conflict seems to be to stop NS2.

Why? NS2's long-term consequences is an alignment of Russian and EU interests, thereby relegating USA to a secondary power in Europe. Also, NS2 gets additional revenue for a economically weak Russia, making them better partners for the EU over time. The final state of this progression is the US is permanently out of Europe. So all of this maybe a play to stay relevant in EU/Eurasia in the long term.

[shaun]

Latest update , Ruski paratroopers taken control of a major logistic airport near keiv , I guess there is plan to bring in their air brigade . Control of keiv will disarray the whole security appratus of Ukraine .

[Tanaji]

Times Now is reporting China, Iran and Pakistan have supported Russia. There is no confirmation of this support on any other fora, do they just make it up?

[srikandan]

John: US reportedly shared Intel with China on Russian invasion pre Feb 20, this angered the Chinese and Xi reportedly discussed with Putin and he agreed to put off any invasion till post Olympics. It’s no coincidence Putin video of declaration of war was shot on Feb 21st. But released only on 24th.

This is utter horsedung. If you are not going to post links to the claims you are making, please stop. You are deliberately muddying the waters here with your disinformation.

[GShankar]

This move by Russia seems like a move they did "without chinese blessing". Not 100% sure about this but looking for more details.

US reportedly shared Intel with China on Russian invasion pre Feb 20, this angered the Chinese and Xi reportedly discussed with Putin and he agreed to put off any invasion till post Olympics.

Russian athletes and diplomats were there too. So, not sure if this is due to chinese "influence" alone.

In any case, this aspect imo is most important for india. We need the opportune moment when china is stretched. Let there be a free country of northern arunachal

[KL Dubey]

Its gonna take a lot of very very smart geopolitical maneuvering to take us out of this situation in a better place. Let's hope the PM, and EAM and everyone else involved is up to the task

India is too big/too strong to be needlessly worried about what is going on in Ukraine. We have many options.

As far as I can see, the Ukrainans have had it coming for a while. Note that it is the same set of actors that are called "BIFs" in Bharat, who orchestrated the "pro-western" antics, orange revolution etc in Ukraine. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a warning, but they did not pay heed.

Ukrainian leaders seem to be complete morons, I only see "Baghdad Bob" type wild statements from them. This time Bhaidanwa got his intelligence right and warned them, but their own leader kept denying any possibility of an invasion.

I hope the Russians overrun the place in a couple of weeks, either annex it or install a different regime, and put an end to this drama.

[Shaktimaan]

An excerpt from Putin's speech declaring war on Ukraine :

"Now a few important, very important words for those who may be tempted to intervene in the ongoing events. Whoever tries to hinder us, or threaten our country or our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences that you have never faced in your history. We are ready for any turn of events. All necessary decisions in this regard have been made. I hope that I will be heard.”

Here is an interesting development. Since the invention of nuclear weapons, no nuclear-armed countries have fought direct, hot war with each other with the exception of the Kargil War where ABV showed exceptional restraint by not crossing the LoC at any point.

Putin here is playing the "Great Paki Bluff" wherein Pakistan constantly exported terrorism to India and made noises about "a potential nuclear war" if India retaliated militarily. The 1998-2014 period was a bloody time for us. Of course, Modi Sarkar called the bluff with by retaliating with surgical strikes and air strikes, along with regular belligerent comments of our own especially during election rallies. Now the Pakis are toothless and begging for money for conventional force buildup.

So my question to the mighty Rakshaks here : Will the US call Putin's nuclear bluff?

[Tanaji]

Latest update , Ruski paratroopers taken control of a major logistic airport near keiv , I guess there is plan to bring in their air brigade . Control of keiv will disarray the whole security appratus of Ukraine .

What is interesting is the speed of this advance. Why dont we see regular Ukranian army units putting up a fight? How do they lose an airport so quickly?

[GShankar]

So my question to the mighty Rakshaks here : Will the US call Putin's nuclear bluff?

If unkil can't call Fat boy's bluff, why will they dare come near the bear?

[rsingh]

Reports of Russian Army forward elements have entered Kiew. Need of the hour is somebody like Singh Saar...complete updated maps. Moi je ne pas de Temp.

[yensoy]

It does seem Putin has mis-calculated. Yes, west has no appetite to fight war on behalf of ukraine but west will certainly fight for itself. This will bring russians at their door and they can not let it go anymore. We do have to remember that West is weaker, but even a weaker west is many times stronger then anyone else...

China does gain far more in all this melee. As it will force Russia into their lap and focus of west will shift to containment of Russia rather then containing China. India will be in a piquant situation as it can not be business as usual with Russians anymore. We will have to choose between Russia and West much to our dismay. We would have liked both on our side for at least a decade more. India's defense modernization as well as current preparedness will take a hit as we all know the state of our armament.

One thing we can do at this point is to renounce our NFU. I think we can get away with this change right now and it will also send powerful signals to our adversary for any miscalculation.

Very good points. This isn't good for the Russians. This isn't good for the German mindset which thought they could continue to do business with Russia and get away with lip service to NATO. Hopefully Unkil will make sure the Germans pay for European defence and cut business ties with & dependence on the Russians. The invasion make the German admiral's comments at IDSA look like an ill informed joke.

China continues to win. But China is a parasite of the west, and if the western economies fall (energy shock, stock market turmoil, sanctions, defence spending) this will hurt China too. We will move further to the west, but possibly to France/Israel than the US; but we also have our arrangement with Russia. Hope this pushes us into further indigenization, and investing in research to stay on the frontier of technology.

[srikandan]

Shaktimaan: Will the US call Putin's nuclear bluff?

US Social media headlines/hottags today: "No Nukes used in Ukraine", suggesting no stomach in the USA to call this bluff. No reason for the USA to start doing this unless they want to make it explicitly clear that they do not expect crossing a nuclear redline. I mean, they don't want to put boots on the ground in Ukraine, so seems like a stretch for them to make an even more strategically costly move.

[Cain Marko]

NDTV doing a decent job on what's going on from Russian perspective:
1. 70+ ukr targets including airfields, bases destroyed.
2. Ukr army not resisting but some nationalist groups are. Ahem. See doing know until we know but not much footage from ukr side.
3. Ukr s300 and buk types totally taken out. As expected.
4. Ukr "disappointed" with India.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/russian ... _topscroll

[vijaykarthik]

On a side note, best defence option for Ukraine will be to have force conc in Kyiv and make it urban warfare. Im reasonably certain US / NATO will have given them some war plans for max impact.

Russia will be happy attacking the military positions and not indulge in urban warfare.

true... and urban warfare will mean more body bags for Russia. But from here Putin needs an absolute victory... otherwise he will look like a fool, if he isnt looking like one already. So, I foresee tough times.

[John]

John: US reportedly shared Intel with China on Russian invasion pre Feb 20, this angered the Chinese and Xi reportedly discussed with Putin and he agreed to put off any invasion till post Olympics. It’s no coincidence Putin video of declaration of war was shot on Feb 21st. But released only on 24th.

This is utter horsedung. If you are not going to post links to the claims you are making, please stop. You are deliberately muddying the waters here with your disinformation.

It was just discussed in NPR however neither US nor China would acknowledge or deny. We will find out when someone writes a book on it years down the road. But if you look at the dates and timing it lines up perfectly.

[vijaykarthik]

From the Chinese view, will this be a good time to take on either Taiwan or India ?

Take India? China can try.

However:
a. India is no Ukraine.
b. China is no Russia.

[srikandan]

John: It was just discussed in NPR however neither US nor China would acknowledge or deny. We will find out when someone writes a book on it years down the road. But if you look at the dates and timing it lines up perfectly.

Ah yes, NPR, America's answer to Pravda. splendid.

[KL Dubey]

"Chinese influence" is exaggerated at best. If Putin can overrun Ukraine, he can just as easily overrun Mongolia or Kazakhstan if needed. Russia is a multiethnic nation. Ethnic links with central asia are also strong, in addition to the slavs in the west.

[vijaykarthik]

Monroe Doctrine.

They want to keep the Russians bottled in their own borders. Just like they created Pakis for containing us.

I beg to differ in this. The time Russia took Crimea, and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, they ensured Ukraine cant join NATO. It doesn't need a new invasion.

[Cain Marko]

Russia will be happy attacking the military positions and not indulge in urban warfare.

true... and urban warfare will mean more body bags for Russia. But from here Putin needs an absolute victory... otherwise he will look like a fool, if he isnt looking like one already. So, I foresee tough times.

Why will he look like a fool? He's given a middle finger to the west, bombed the shit out of Ukrainian military positions across the entire country, moved in and out as he pleases. So far the only ones looking impotent are ukr army and resistance and western allies who still don't have a coherent response other than usual threats of "severe sanctions"

[Baikul]

For those trying to track the early course of the war, I found a movement map by twitter account @coupsure to be helpful. Looks like an attack on three axes - South, East and North (Kyiv). They’re probably going for the capital as to attempt a decapitating strike.

Mods please delete this if not halal. Am linking to the map below

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMXuYrqWUAY ... =4096x4096

[GShankar]

A perspective on what is going on

Part -1:

1. Nordstream 2 would help russia economically
   1.1 China does not want that
   1.2 US does not want that
   1.3 Ukraine does not want that
   1.4 Sanction/Ban the company building the pipeline
2. Start some NATO BS with Ukraine
3. Cut alternate deals with Germany
4. Provoke Russia
   4.1 Putin gives speech. But why? There seems to be a need to address the internal audience.
5. Russia Engages
   5.1 US Condemns
   5.2 China Condems
   5.3 Germany Stutters
6. Nordstream 2 suspended

I think pretty much primary mission achieved. The powers that be don't care about 2 new countries being formed. And roos manages to achieve some sort of buffer (territory expansion?). Interesting that "this" buffer is valued more (at this moment) than nordstream 2. Not sure why? This "buffer creation" could have happened after nordstream 2 started flowing

Negotiate price down further bring nordstream 2 back on track?

I think G2 is alive and well.

Part -2:

Russia can hold some "additional" territory to negotiate a deal.


Now what are the territories they might be interested in?

1. Securing pipeline route(s) all across ukraine - more difficult
2. Any so called commercial hubs or ports to choke trade (worst case probably everything "this" side of Dnieper is game)

Now what could be the terms that they are looking for? These are the obvious ones for one looking from the outside in

1. No Nato membership for ukraine
2. Another long term transit fee deal
3. Recognition of new countries to release the "additional" territories

I don't see any moves for India at the moment other than watch the unfolding scenario and being "part" of various discussions. Also need to see what moves / proposals china is making and what we can we could counter.

This move by Russia seems like a move they did "without chinese blessing". Not 100% sure about this but looking for more details.

Part -3:
If Russia is really serious, what are their fall-back options if the "other" side starts pushing back? This will become more obvious if the fighting drags on for more than a week. Don't think fog of war will clear out before then. This has clearly exposed Ukraine so far nevertheless. Also proves that any defensive fight (battle/war/skirmish/whatever) is a losing proposition. I am disappointed that Ukraine has not gamed even one scenario a la Sunderji to capture some other regions including crimea. May be they thought about this but are too overwhelmed? not sure.

In any case, coming to the fall-back options for Russia - if ehYou, Unkil, neat-O come to play, then the bear definitely needs some sugar on the side. If that happens, India does not gain anything by "not" being active. At the minimum we need to offer our good manufacturing facilities to make engines, radars, seekers - you know the minor stuff for anyone who needs them. This is what the yoodhas will do. Time to talk to them first?

If this really gets bad, then the planets and stars might align for something like INRUCHI?

[shaun]

upload

[Cain Marko]

^didn't really tell us anything more than what we already know. BIG question is... There is almost zero reports of any organized Ukrainian resistance. Why?

[KL Dubey]

Latest update , Ruski paratroopers taken control of a major logistic airport near keiv , I guess there is plan to bring in their air brigade . Control of keiv will disarray the whole security appratus of Ukraine .

What is interesting is the speed of this advance. Why dont we see regular Ukranian army units putting up a fight? How do they lose an airport so quickly?

Because perhaps the BIF propaganda of Ukrainians and Russians being "bitter enemies" may not be true on the ground?

[Cain Marko]

^seems to be the case. Russians claim there is no resistance from ukr armed forces. Just nationalist types.